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May 18, 2009

Will Everyone Go Running Back to Manhattan?

Crain's recycles the question (asked by The Times a week earlier) that seems to be on everyone's mind these days: Do falling Manhattan rents spell the end of Brooklyn? We don't think so. Clearly some people who work in Midtown and were living in Brooklyn based on price alone ("If it's as expensive in Brooklyn as Manhattan, I'd rather just be in the real thing,” says one publicist) will return to Manhattan but, we'd bet, most of the creative professionals who've put down roots in the County of Kings are here to stay. Real housewife Alex McCord summed up how we—and, if this poll is to be believed, many others—feel when she told the paper, “Even if we had Warren Buffett money, we would never leave.”
Can Brooklyn Keep Its Mojo? [Crain's]
Brooklynites Jumping Ship to Manhattan? [Brownstoner]
Photo by cornell100

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Comments

yawn

Posted by: Petebklyn at May 18, 2009 10:18 AM

i think young professionals and young trustfunders will opt to move back to manhattan if they can afford it. brooklyn and queens are in essense the bedroom communities of nyc, so most likely it will be people who have CF's who will opt to stay in brooklyn and single young people will opt for manhattan again. it should be a good thing for both sides.
i have no opinion about where i live as i move where the wind takes me. for all i know i could be living in the bronx or boise in a few months.

*rob*

Posted by: PitbullNYC at May 18, 2009 10:21 AM

This is such an interesting topic to me, as we ARE in Manhattan. Have been here for over 17 years. Have a large loft in the middle of downtown. Are two blocks away from a fabulous greenmarket and subway hub. Yet we spend many weekends in Brooklyn, have most of our friends in Brooklyn and find the street, shop and restaurant/cafe life infinitely more varied and interesting in Brooklyn.

I think our last real cafe closed up shop 6 months ago - there used to be at least a half dozen inside of walking distance - and now there are 5 Starbucks instead. Perhaps 10 or 15 years ago it was still wonderful in Manhattan, but at this point, the level of construction & development, the number of banks, Gaps, American Apparels and Starbucks, and the sheer volume/masses of people and students in our neighborhood have made it so unpleasant that we are done psychologically with it. I can barely even stand Madison Square Park anymore, which used to be our oasis. And who in hell wants to stand in line for an hour for a damn burger?

We want to move to Brooklyn.

Posted by: Nokilissa at May 18, 2009 10:28 AM

If the trust fund only allowed for them to live in Brooklyn then it wasn't a very big trust fund. The usual difference between "new money" and "old money" is that the people with "new money" have more of it.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 18, 2009 10:28 AM

The more I read this stuff, the more I realize that it sets up a false premise--that Brooklyn is filled with people who picked Brooklyn as a second choice after no longer being able to afford Manhattan.

As someone who's lived here for almost 12 years, that was the case for me, and moving was a big adjustment. But now I doubt I'd go back unless we could afford an amazing house on a quiet block in the West Village, which is highly unlikely.

What I see are more and more are younger folks (under 30) who picked Brooklyn first, by choice, over Manhattan, for myriad reasons--more hip and more diverse, and sometimes even more affordable. For some, living in Manhattan is selling out.

Crain's and the recent Times article are talking about someone like me, but don't address all the newer arrivals who weren't necessarily gaga over Manhattan in the first place, or ever lived there. Why would they want to go there now?

Posted by: tinarina at May 18, 2009 10:42 AM

Now I can totally understand how lower rents in Manhattan will attract people back for reasons like convenience etc - but the mentality of the "publicist" who said - "If it's as expensive in Brooklyn as Manhattan, I'd rather just be in the real thing." Uh - that's annoying.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at May 18, 2009 10:43 AM

Ugh, "publicists". They're only entertaining when they're running people down at bad clubs in the Hamptons.

Posted by: DeLepp at May 18, 2009 10:52 AM

You may not return to The City but Manhattan-prices-in-Brooklyn will. The preoccupation with this topic speaks volumes. And the disneyfication in Manhattan will de-disneyfy and the edgy cafes and shops will return there as well.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at May 18, 2009 10:55 AM

"I'd rather just be in the real thing"

If that implies Brooklyn is "fake" and Manhattan is "real", then I have absolutely nothing in common with that guy. Good riddance.

Posted by: broadwayron at May 18, 2009 10:57 AM

It's a darn good thing that we'd never let chains like Ikea, Target or Costco into the borough and ruin our authenticity.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at May 18, 2009 11:04 AM

I can't tell you how tired I am of hearing the term "creative professionals."

Unless you fall into this category, there's no reason for you to live in Brooklyn. I actually fall in the category of "knowledge worker" -- how does that work? And most people I know are not "creative professionals" but still live in Brooklyn.

This terms is just code for "folks that make a lot of money" but want a moniker that makes them feel better about themselves. They're not artists... they're just *not bankers*

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 11:04 AM

I've said it before: I don't care how much money I make, I'll never live in Manhattan again. Too crowded, too loud, too stressful, not enough skyline, too full of assholes.

Course ... it appears that I won't be living in Brooklyn for much longer either (probably moving to Indianapolis). But if I ever come back, and I hope I'll be able to, it'll be to Brooklyn.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at May 18, 2009 11:09 AM

indianapolis, there are some nice hoods close to downtown there.

Posted by: DeLepp at May 18, 2009 11:12 AM

you called it tyburg6

this post reeks of "creative professional" angst, not to mention "new" brooklyn obtuseness/egoism/smugness. in what possible way could we ever see the "end" of Brooklyn???

i've lived in brooklyn 25 years. since i arrived before brooklyn "started", does that mean i was never really here?

Posted by: southbrooklyn at May 18, 2009 11:18 AM

tybur6 - what term would you use? how do you describe advertising creatives, designers, agents of artists, production people (producers, set designers, stylists, lighting techs, etc...), actors, illustrators, musicians, editors, shop owners, etc..? really they do not make decisions like yuppies, and many started with art degrees and have artistic hobbies if not making money selling art or performing. pick a different term, i'll use it!, but i think creative professionals describe a group with money, that works in the city, lives in brooklyn, and never wears a suit. this group makes up the buyers of condos in williamsburg for sure - probably 95%.

this group is way committed to brooklyn, especially williamsburg. because of work, i also know a huge amount of 20 somethings "creative professionals", and they are only in manhattan for occasional music or art. most shows, parties, bars and restaurants -- all greenpoint/williamsburg/bushwick. this has shifted out of manhattan and will not shift back.

Posted by: wine lover at May 18, 2009 11:18 AM

quote:

and will not shift back.

yes keep saying that.

*rob*

Posted by: PitbullNYC at May 18, 2009 11:25 AM

> "this has shifted out of manhattan and will not shift back."

Famous last words.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at May 18, 2009 11:25 AM

wine lover --

I have a word you can use for 20-something "advertising creatives, designers, agents of artists, production people (producers, set designers, stylists, lighting techs, etc...), actors, illustrators, musicians, editors, shop owners, etc" who buy apartments in williamsburg.

"dependents"

Posted by: joe_the_bummer at May 18, 2009 11:25 AM

HA me and snark just postgasmed.

*rob*

Posted by: PitbullNYC at May 18, 2009 11:27 AM

Does anyone really think there will be a mass exodus from any neighborhood if rents in Manhattan go down?

Where in manhattan can you get what Ft. Greene, Park Slope, Williamsburg et all have to offer? You can't - you'd be sacrificing one thing for another.

I'm not saying that brooklyn rents won't have to adjust - but I think that will happen thru negotiation with landlords rather then people leaving and making the rental market collapse.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at May 18, 2009 11:39 AM

Shop owners are "creative professionals"?? I guess I'm a creative professional too if we're making this a catch-all.

So who's not included? Doctors, lawyers, psychoanalysts, bankers, investors, insurance and real estate brokers? It's a damn good thing the majority of Brooklyn's property owners isn't made up of those types!! Keep Brooklyn in the hands of "creative professionals"!!

Wait... probably a lawyer that paints on the weekends or enjoys model airplanes is OK.

That Manhattan is just full of stuffy people that work work work and don't have any creativity! Don't they know you can move to Brooklyn and become a "creative professional" and buy a brownstone?

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 11:40 AM

Jinx, you owe me a Coke! Or something stronger...

Posted by: SnarkSlope at May 18, 2009 11:40 AM

Wishful thinking on the part of Manhattan brokers. To buy not rent, Manhattan is still way way more expensive considering coop and condo fees and property taxes. There is still more space for the money in Brooklyn no matter how high prices go here, and for arts/media people who need at-home work space (many times for both spouses like in our case) Manhattan is not an option except for the very wealthy. Even for renters, 20-somethings who need to pay only $900-1,000 a month are still only looking in Brooklyn. Manhattan hasn't dropped to that level yet and won't.

Posted by: traditionalmod at May 18, 2009 11:40 AM

"Even for renters, 20-somethings who need to pay only $900-1,000 a month are still only looking in Brooklyn."

Yeah, you're right, it's only the 20-somethings that need to pay this. Once you're "creative profession" takes off, you're earning 6-figures easy! Fucking douche.

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 11:43 AM

Where do social workers and teachers and nurses and policemen live? East New York and Jersey I guess...

It would be good if we came up with a Soviet style segmentation plan for the city:

Manhattan: Uncreative Professional (banker, lawyer, doctor)
Brooklyn: Creative Professional (wealthy artist, rich designer, and movie stars)
Queens: Support Staff (nurses, secretaries)
Bronx: Service Workers (social workers, teacher, shop clerks, policemen, firefighters, etc.)
Staten Island: Laborers (carpenters, road works, electricians, plumbers, etc.)

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 11:53 AM

It is interesting how this topic keeps generating plenty of strong emotion among Brooklyn residents.

If you told a group of Manhattan residents that some of their neighbors were considering moving to Brooklyn, their collective response would be somewhere between complete indifference and bemused confusion that you even considered the topic worthy of discussion.

Posted by: northsloperenter at May 18, 2009 11:54 AM

"really they do not make decisions like yuppies"

Self-impressed twerps like Wine Lover confirm pigeonholing's enduring popularity amongst the pigeon-brained.

Posted by: dittoburg at May 18, 2009 11:54 AM

if PURCHASE prices drop to same as BK, I would move back to Man - albeit not seeing or expecting that to happen any time soon. even post a massive price drop, we're still talking about a large amount of $$$ (downpayment, loan,...) and I personally would have to look at this from an investmt angle (ie Man is AAA vs. BK is less than AAA). Like it or not, Man prices will do better than BK - ie if we're talking about comparable units selling for same prices.

this recent MTA budget gap (toll on bridges,..) confirms politicians still treat the other boroughs as 2nd class citizens vs. Man. If they continue to think like that, I rather live in Man if prices are the same

Posted by: more4less at May 18, 2009 11:56 AM

> Where in manhattan can you get what Ft. Greene, Park Slope, Williamsburg et
> all have to offer? You can't - you'd be sacrificing one thing for another.

Speaking only for myself, I am pondering Hell's Kitchen. It has much of what I like about Park Slope, and I would recover many lost commuting hours.

Of course there are sacrifices. At my price point, it's all about compromises.

I may yet end up staying put in Brooklyn, as at this point, most of my friends live out here. Still, I ponder, how nice would it be to walk to work?

Posted by: SnarkSlope at May 18, 2009 11:57 AM

tybur6 - I think you're overreacting a little to what people are saying here. Yes, it's dumb to state that Brooklyn is entirely populated by "creative professionals" when people who fall under that moniker are a definite minority in such a diverse borough, but I don't think anyone here is really insinuating that.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at May 18, 2009 11:59 AM

Rents in Manhattan are falling - but still aren't anywhere close to where they were 5 years ago, and not even comparable to Brooklyn.

Sure, a one bedroom in a tower on 1st avenue in Murray Hill may only cost 2,500 now instead of 2,800 (if you factor in the free months rent)
Oh and you can probably get a walk up tenament studio in the LES for 1700 now instead of 1900 - but do these little decreases in insane rents make them any less insane?

Let me know when I can get a studio again on the LES for 900 bucks and maybe we'll talk.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at May 18, 2009 12:00 PM

CWB -- of course they are. Perhaps not consciously, but for MOST people on here Brooklyn means the northwest corner with $1 million homes and 6-figure incomes. Anything outside that characterization is foreign... $40,000/yr social worker that rents? Nope. They don't live in the Brooklyn that most here has in mind....

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 12:08 PM

dirty hipster -

Can you even get a studio in any part of Brooklyn that's comparable to the LES for $900? I thought they were higher than that still except in "fringe" areas like Bushwick, Bed Stuy, and the like.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at May 18, 2009 12:11 PM

Snark...thats really the only thin I miss about living in Manhattan...walking to work. I did it for 13 years amd I'm not much in love with my fellow subway commuters!!!!

BTW, I live in Brooklyn and I'm certainly NOT a "creative type."

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 18, 2009 12:12 PM

> "Let me know when I can get a studio again on the LES for 900 bucks"

Let me know when I can find that in a "creative professional" part of Brooklyn.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at May 18, 2009 12:12 PM

CWB - I've been seeing studios popping up in Greenpoint and Eastern Williamsburg (montrose L and further) for 900-1200 bucks. I don't really consider these areas "fringe" - but hardly prime.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at May 18, 2009 12:15 PM

cwb, you can.

There are currently studios in Kensington, Midwood, Gravesend area for 900-950 and not bad ones at all (about 450 sq. feet or larger).

Posted by: Kensingtonian at May 18, 2009 12:20 PM

tybur6 - Well, yes, a lot of the people on this site mean "northwest Brooklyn" when they talk about Brooklyn ... but even northwest Brooklyn still has a lot of people living in it who aren't six-figure "creative professionals." They just rent, and live on the noisy avenues in walk-ups, rather than owning brownstones on the nicest streets.

I lived in Manhattan for years before I started making six figures. Pretty sure I could've lived in the area of Brooklyn I now live in - Park Slope, which is cheaper than where I lived in Manhattan - without making six figures.

As a web designer, though, I guess I'm technically a "creative professional," and a fairly well paid one at that, so I should probably shut up. :)

dirty-hipster, Kensingtonian - fair enough, I guess those aren't "fringe" areas, but I'm not sure I'd compare them to the LES ... you're talking about a pretty substantial increase in commute to get to any of those places vs. the LES, assuming you work in Manhattan.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at May 18, 2009 12:26 PM

haha CWB - damn creative professionals!!

I think Greenpoint/Bushwick are pretty comparable to LES circa 02-03 - especially where I was (east of essex)

People don't realize how damn close Greenpoint is to midtown. If you live near the G train, it's 2 stops to the E/V at court square, then one stop to 53rd and Lex. From the Nassau Ave G stop it's probably about 20 minutes, no further then Essex/Delancey to Rockefeller Center on the F.
If someone is paying 900 bucks a month, living alone, near plenty of amenities with a 20 minutes commute i think that's a pretty good deal.

You just have to have a penchant for aluminum siding rather then brown sandstone and limestone.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at May 18, 2009 12:33 PM

I had some guests visit this weekend. Saturday I took them around NYC to the Villages, SoHo, Upper East Side. Then on Sunday I did the Brooklyn thing including Clover Club, Robin Du Bois, Union Hall, and Al Di La. Their response was the same as mine. Manhattan was kinda OK, but in the words of my best friend after our brunch at Sarabeth's in the Upper West Side "If I had to live among these douchey weirdos who put ascotts on their 3 year olds I would punch my own face to pass out and forget I existed." There are plenty of douches in Brooklyn, but all in all, its just a great place to live. I can afford to live in Manhattan and from the moment I moved here, I bypassed Manhattan and went straight for Brooklyn. Would never ever ever live there. FInd for work, but just feels Diney, superficial, and kinda gross.

Posted by: LincolnSlope at May 18, 2009 12:34 PM

"Then on Sunday I did the Brooklyn thing including Clover Club, Robin Du Bois, Union Hall, and Al Di La."

Wow - that sounds like an epic Sunday. I bet you're feeling good now.

I've had similar experiences with visitors, LincolnSlope - we'll do the manhattan thing one day, and brooklyn the next, and people will realize you can get almost anything in Brooklyn that you can in Manhattan - but at a more relaxed pace.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at May 18, 2009 12:39 PM

Yes, the "real thing" comment was annoying but If you're not from here: Idaho, Alabama, Boston or Europe and the "real thing" is what you saw on "Sex and the City" then Manhattan is right for you. For the rest of us, for various other reasons, Brooklyn meets our needs.

Posted by: Crownlfc at May 18, 2009 12:39 PM

Guys - You're missing the point. Its not that everyone will go running back to Manhattan. It's that buyers/renters (a la Team Bear - Grrrrrr) will get a neighborhood "upgrade" or two. WV/UWS/SOHO/Tribeca rentals and sales will now be had at Chelsea/Murray Hill/UES/LES/Midtown prices. Chelsea/Murray Hill/UES/LES/Midtown rentals and sales will now be had at Caroll Gardens/Park Slope/Brooklyn Heights prices. Caroll Gardens/Park Slope/Brooklyn Heights rentals and sales will now be had at Fort Green/Clinton Hill/Prospect Heights prices. (slight inaccuracies perhaps but you get my point)

And for all you pioneers, Manhattan's edge WILL return. That's what depressions do - bankrupt the corporations and resurrect the mom and pops.

Yes! The whole collapse is happening as planned. I'm ecstatic!

"Upgrade upgrade!" - Beyonce

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at May 18, 2009 12:49 PM

Also... just throwing this out there... why is everyone expected to commute to midtown Manhattan?! I actually work in Brooklyn -- and currently can walk to work -- but if my rent goes up I'm moving. To Bushwick or Greenpoint? My commute would be an hour easy... I could probably live on Staten Island or Jersey City and have a shorter commute!!

So, there are a lot of opportunities I guess for "creative professionals" -- because they either stay at home or, apparently, all work between 14th and 57th in manhattan!

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 12:51 PM

LincolnSlope,
Brunch at Sarabeth's = guaranteed epicenter of douchiness, probably not a fair reflection of Manhattan as a whole.
You treat your guests well. If I had a weekend that full it would take me till the next weekend to recover!

Posted by: etson at May 18, 2009 12:54 PM

I've worked in five different offices, for two different companies, since I moved to New York and all of them have been between 14th and 57th street, between Park and Eighth ave (14th, 21st, 39th, 23rd, 36th). There's a LOT of small-to-mid-sized companies in that area that employ "creative professionals".

I wish my company's offices was in Brooklyn. That would rock. But since the CEO commutes from Westchester, there's no way.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at May 18, 2009 1:01 PM

god,u r such a F'N wannabe tybur6."$40,000/yr social worker that rents?Nope.They dont live in the Brooklyn that most here have in mind" Who the hell r u to characterize people like that.U r the exact type of an arrogant asshole transplant that most of us natives f'n hate.

Posted by: buckfast at May 18, 2009 1:06 PM

Buckfast... what exactly are you reacting to? I'd be happy to accept your insult, but I don't know what it is.

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 1:10 PM

Etson and Dirty Hipster,
You have no clue. I try to be a great host because I feel like it is one of the things I have realized from my travels: Foreignors are much better hosts! I alwasy want people to leave visiting me to know that I did the best I could to give them an epic stay. My only regret was that I did not get to take them to WIlliamsburg for a show but next time. I took them through a 30 minute walk through Central Park and to have drinks at the rooftop of the Met on Saturday. We barely slept all weekend. Last night at like midnight after the Union Hall drinks we were nice drunk after all the food and drinks and I took them of a quick walking tour of Park Slope down 3rd street to the Park, past the pink house on Garfield and then back to the park toward Grand Army Plaza. It was a beautiful night. Friends are great. :)

Posted by: LincolnSlope at May 18, 2009 1:12 PM

i didnt like ur characterization of bk residents outside of the brownstone belt.i know u were just making an example,but it still rubbed me the wrong way.i still should not have came at u the way i did.i apologize

Posted by: buckfast at May 18, 2009 1:25 PM

I meant to say "you have no idea."

Posted by: LincolnSlope at May 18, 2009 1:26 PM

If your a diehard brooklynite feel free to ignore this post.

Everyone else, just suck it up and face the facts... we all have a price tolerance, If manhattan prices continue to drop and brooklyn prices dont drop accordingly... there will be an increasing appeal to owning and/or renting in the "city".

While there are many who have no need to go to the city at all, a HUGE portion of brooklyn residents must and do commute on a regular basis to manhattan. This is the core reason manhattan is more "valuable" than the regions that border it. Denying this is really sticking your head in the sand.

Clearly people can become irreversibly attached to their residences, all the more so if they were local to begin with... but the majority of people really are operating on a "is it worth the effort" basis. Where they are primarily looking for a "deal" and once they see a reasonable offer, they're really debating if the troubles of moving and so forth are worth the reward of likely being closer to their work, and many friends, and the many amenities and events and so forth manhattan has (rental cars anyone!!! :) ).

A complete idiot could understand the process, rent goes down , more people will be attracted... the MORE rent goes down the more attractive it becomes, even to people who had previously not even considered it... consider this effect MAGNIFIED in border neighborhoods (such as park slope, williamsburg, LIC, hoboken, etc...).

If your comparing your 900$ one bedroom in brooklyn, manhattan is clearly far away from affordable... but if prices fell that far... a whole ton of 900$ one bedroom renters in BK would be thinking about leaving.

If the LES prices crumble ill bet you dollars to donuts half of williamsburgs "trendy" residents would jump ship in a heart-beat.

If i could buy a similar brownstone in chelsea or the UWS near the park for the same price as one in PS, you can bet most people wouldn't blink twice before choosing the manhattan one.

--LionBalls

Posted by: lionballs at May 18, 2009 1:46 PM

I love this article. Brooklyn is the new downtown. Yes. What was my old joke? The Upper East Side is the new Upper East Side.

You know what's coming next: Starbuck's and Disney and Apple and douches to Brooklyn. Unless the subway patterns keep them away. If it's going to go like that, then can we at least get some decent grocery stores?

Posted by: mopar at May 18, 2009 1:49 PM

OK, so Brooklyn keeps Etsy, gains SpikeDBB but loses Kristina Wylde, mid-town publicist. Seems like pretty good trades actually! Also, does anyone with half a clue really think Brooklyn's a "pioneer market" anymore on the whole? I could see if you're arguing secondary market. And one last little nit--I think the woman from real housewives is in Cobble Hill (as it even says in the article), which aint Park Slope believe it or not. Just helps if you're doing this kind of article to get your neighborhoods right.

Posted by: woodys at May 18, 2009 1:51 PM

LionBalls???

Yes, LionBalls, but the point is moving to Manhattan is like moving to Midtown. Unattractive, ugly, overrun with tourists, bad food, expensive food. So you pay a price even if your rent is cheaper.

Of course if you could buy a similar brownstone near the park for the same price as PS people would move, I would move. But you can't.

Posted by: mopar at May 18, 2009 1:52 PM

Buckfast... i was saying that folks on this site think of Brooklyn as ONLY the brownstone belt and more specifically the "creative professional" (whatever that means) making 6-figure incomes.

The conversations on here never take into account the $40,000/year professionals like social workers and teachers. Brooklyn is the park slop well-to-do and all of the other folks are second class citizens. The policemen, firemen, shop workers, secretaries, middle-managers, etc etc etc just magically appear each day and then disappear at night and on the weekends.

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 1:58 PM

"The conversations on here never take into account the $40,000/year professionals like social workers and teachers. Brooklyn is the park slop well-to-do and all of the other folks are second class citizens. The policemen, firemen, shop workers, secretaries, middle-managers, etc etc etc just magically appear each day and then disappear at night and on the weekends."

Oh cry me a river.

Posted by: mopar at May 18, 2009 2:07 PM

LionBalls - I agree to a certain extent.

I don't think anyone here really believes since manhattan rents are falling - brooklyn rents will NEVER decrease. They have to, as the markets are linked.

Right now the brooklyn decrease seems to be lagged, but its coming. Right now the alternatives in Manhattan aren't really attractive for myself and people I know (20 somethings not making 6 figures) - manhattan isn't magically affordable again.

If your extreme scenarios happen, then of course many people will leave brooklyn and never look back.

And I disagree about half the people in Williamsburg leaving for the LES if the LES gets insanely cheap (i used to agree with this) - anything the LES had in its hipster heyday is gone or has moved to williamsburg. the LES is a puke soaked Murray Hill playground on the weekends. Anything there is in williamsburg now, for less money and with significantly less puke.

Posted by: dirty_hipster at May 18, 2009 2:08 PM

i guess i misunderstood ur post.so i apologize once again.

Posted by: buckfast at May 18, 2009 2:08 PM

> "the LES is a puke soaked Murray Hill playground on the weekends."

Well said, d-h. A gross but apt description.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at May 18, 2009 2:12 PM

Mopar... you're cute. But since the policemen and firemen that are most qualified are finding jobs in communities OUTSIDE new york city, who's gonna be crying?

The market is awesome, don't get me wrong. But don't be surprised when nurses and firemen and teachers stop trying to get jobs in your neighborhood!! That's part of the market.

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 2:20 PM

My neighborhood? That's cute, Tyburg6.

Posted by: mopar at May 18, 2009 3:17 PM

Lionballs -

"If i could buy a similar brownstone in chelsea or the UWS near the park for the same price as one in PS, you can bet most people wouldn't blink twice before choosing the manhattan one."

... but I would. And so would a lot of the people who live in Park Slope.

The only reason I can fathom for choosing Chelsea or the UWS over Park Slope is due to return-on-investment concerns, which isn't something I'd be worried about if I could afford to buy in any of those three places, since I'd be buying for the long term, not as an investment strategy.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at May 18, 2009 4:57 PM

Teachers generally make well over $40K/year.

Posted by: sixyearsandcounting at May 18, 2009 4:58 PM

"Ugh, "publicists". They're only entertaining when they're running people down at bad clubs in the Hamptons."

But, we're well compensated.

Posted by: East New York at May 18, 2009 5:11 PM

Yes sixeyearsandcouting.... teachers make $45-75k on average. "Teachers who already have a master’s degree but no teaching experience will start at $51,425." (From NYC DoE)

I shouldn't have lumped them in with social workers... who, incidentally, work at schools. The most definitely make $40k. And maybe, just maybe, $50k.

So... tell me, where will the teacher making $65k with substantial student loans live?

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 5:21 PM

ENY, lo siento my paint brush was quite broad this morning.

Posted by: DeLepp at May 18, 2009 5:27 PM

Give me a break, Tybur6. You have a lot of concern about a problem that doesn't exist.

Posted by: mopar at May 18, 2009 5:32 PM

tybur6: Hard to tell - the student loans and family size are the wild cards there. As to where they'd live, I'd guess - as a teacher who knows quite a few people in roughly the situation you describe - somewhere in Brooklyn, anywhere from Williamsburg to Bensonhurst to Crown Heights to PLG to Marine Park. Or Kensington/Ditmas Park, in my case.

Posted by: sixyearsandcounting at May 18, 2009 5:34 PM

tybur6 is right.the middle class is shrinking in NYC.at this pace New York will become a city for the rich and the poor.(there will always be poor in NY because of so much public housing).im a contractor who does work all over the east coast.i have come across countless former New Yorkers in places like Allentown PA,Philly,Wilmington Del,all over northern and southern Jersey,and Maryland.all born and raised,and priced out of NY.

Posted by: buckfast at May 18, 2009 6:52 PM

yo dirty - correct as always! the LES costs a fortune to do anything. and the "cool" bars are full of frat boys and tourists and wall streeters. there's no going back. the east village is just as bad. drive down second ave on a saturday night and watch drunks dodge cars. puking galore! hilarious.

i've worked in soho for most of the last 16 years, and it's a total joke. you can't move even on a weekday. full of tourists just standing in the middle of every sidewalk. literally standing. i'd gladly move my biz to brooklyn and may when my lease is up.

also, i never said that 20 somethings buy apartments altho some may. pretty sure they are renters. i can speak from experience and it seems that it's mostly 30's and up buying condos in wiliamsburg. and mostly couple/families. or, they've bought and have roommates. really, there's a huge creative professional group buying. friend (close to 40) just bought and moved into a 2 bed this weekend.

of course, there are rich people who are young and buy - that is probably more in williamsburg if it exists than in other parts of BK. but, probably also in manhattan.

Posted by: wine lover at May 18, 2009 9:53 PM

mopar... it's obviously not a problem for you. you're a lucky little bitch.

Posted by: tybur6 at May 18, 2009 10:43 PM

Good bring on the housing market collapse in New York Cit! It is time that the hard working middle class get their affordable homes back and these morons that came here to speculate on homes with the help of banks get the hell out of here.

Posted by: hannible at May 18, 2009 10:45 PM

Call the semantic police!!!!!!!

If you make your living in that pursuit then you are a professional. If you are paid to wipe down toilet seats, you are a professional toilet seat wiper. Doesn't matter if the pay is not that great, you are still a professional.

Posted by: the chicken at May 19, 2009 3:42 AM

You miss my point, Tybur6. You referenced all of New York City, not just brownstone Brooklyn. New York City is full of inexpensive housing that the middle class can afford. Hamilton Heights, Inwood, Lower East Side, Chinatown, Upper East Side, East Harlem, many areas in Queens, Bronx, and Brooklyn such as Astoria, Jackson Heights, Bay Ridge, and Sunset Park just to name a few. Even in brownstone Brooklyn, which is a relatively small part of New York City, there are teachers splitting rental apts and living in houses their families own. Prices are no different outside the city, although you will generally have more room. We've considered moving to the suburbs, but taxes, heat, and commute costs will wipe out any gains. In other words, it's actually more expensive to live outside the city. As for my own situation, I live in a very inexpensive part of Brookyn (Bushwick) where the majority of my neighbors are construction and grocery store workers. A teacher or fireman would be considered quite well off here, as the average income is less than $30,000. Rents range from $1000 to $1900 for a whole apt. Most people typically pay $600 to $800 for a share. There are many SROs. We've been over this countless times on this blog and I know you're not new here.

Posted by: mopar at May 19, 2009 12:29 PM

That is just the issue. We need homes to raise our families in not to share with another 5 people!

Posted by: hannible at May 19, 2009 9:32 PM

Hannible, you are right. The people I see earning grocery store wages split $1200 two-bedroom apartments between three adults and their children. (Usually the adults are related -- usually a married couple and a sister). But Tybur6 was asking about "middle class" New Yorkers. Tons of affordable and spacious places for them, many of which have already been mentioned. Bed Stuy is another.

Posted by: mopar at May 19, 2009 11:50 PM

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May 18, 2009

Will Everyone Go Running Back to Manhattan?

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