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May 8, 2009

Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Comment: Nice price movement on 2nd Place!
Open House Picks 11/7/08 [Brownstoner]
Previous Six Months Later Posts [Brownstoner]

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Comments

things are moving for under a million. hint, hint.

Posted by: sam at May 8, 2009 12:54 PM

serious movement on 2nd place. what's the deal? that place is huge at 34ft wide! it must need a ton of work.

nice price in prospect heights.

Posted by: bkny at May 8, 2009 12:55 PM

The problem with the 2nd street place is that buyers are all ignorant and don't know value when they see it. From the original open house picks thread:

"Guys what i am trying to say is this. You can turn that CG place into 4 units that could easily fetch 1.5 mill each according to the comps. You could walk away with plenty after renovations. It is being done all over the city. You have to think this thru and understand the way it works. I am not going to sit here and walk you thru but if you do some homework you would understand better.

- sebb"

Posted by: lechacal at May 8, 2009 12:59 PM

I mean the 2nd place place.

Posted by: lechacal at May 8, 2009 12:59 PM

1 year and 2 days ago on Brownstoner:

http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2008/05/foreclosure_of_9.php

Foreclosure of the Week: 136 Underhill Avenue

Guest commenting was still allowed...

Posted by: northsloperenter at May 8, 2009 1:03 PM

Point being
no one (not buyers,sellers or brokers) know what th FMV for homes in BK are right now
case closed.
and again agreed places under 700K seem to be selling while homes even priced well over the 1.1mil are sitting - nice homes

ugh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: gemini10 at May 8, 2009 1:04 PM

"UGH"?

Boo Hoo, overpriced buildings that aren't worth what people are asking. As someone w/ the resources and credit rating to buy a townhouse, but the sense not to overpay for an inflated asset, I say "hooray"

Pity the owner who overpaid and extended themselves to buy a place in the last 2 years.

Certainly not the person 4 years ago who paid 60% asking price and thinks they should double their money. Seem to be a lot of those these days.

Please. It's economics 101.

Posted by: brandedmatt at May 8, 2009 1:10 PM

Clifton is still on the market, $459,000, per Property Shark.

Posted by: serpentor at May 8, 2009 1:12 PM

PH house needed ***beaucoup*** work. It sold for the right price.

Posted by: quig at May 8, 2009 1:12 PM

Clifton is still on the market, $459,000, per Property Shark.

Posted by: serpentor at May 8, 2009 1:12 PM

Oh Shit a 4 story Brownstone in Bed Stuy for how much???!!!

That's not good...

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at May 8, 2009 1:27 PM

[smiles]

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at May 8, 2009 1:28 PM

I think one problem is, with little on the market and few recent sales, it's hard for either seller or buyer to ascertain where the market is. So on top of the usual catch-a-falling-knife fears, with so few recent comps you can't even tell where the knife is right now.

Posted by: basementalist at May 8, 2009 1:28 PM

Thank you Basementalist!
exactly right on. It's so hard for anyone to know real comps when nothing has really been selling to provide those comps. Sure it's not right to give a buyer a comp from spring 2008 nor is it right to use a comp from the short sale that happened either...

Posted by: gemini10 at May 8, 2009 1:31 PM

Calm before storm, basementalist. Same thing happened before the boom (buying storm or frenzy) @ tail end of fear (mid 90's). What we're experiencing now is the head end of fear before capitulation. With respect to knives, the Kill Bill moment (you know, the banquet scene at the end of Vol. 1) is imminent?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at May 8, 2009 1:37 PM

It's OK gemini. It happens to a lot of guys when they get older.

Posted by: northsloperenter at May 8, 2009 1:38 PM

...shadow inventory and more economic revelations of distress behind a cracked dam.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at May 8, 2009 1:39 PM

...imminent[.]

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at May 8, 2009 1:41 PM

the normal reaction to the fact that nothing is selling is to lower the price until it does. This fairly basic bit of advise is not being followed by the real estate geniuses in Brooklyn. Instead the idea is: lets give it time until the bubble re-inflates. meanwhile the sellers have to carry the cost of the property and put their lives on hold while they drop the price little by little creating the illusion that their property is crappy and that it is on a downward projectory making buyers even less likely to approach it.
At this point things are selling that are under a million or over two and a half million. the super-ritzy market is still alive as evidenced by sales in the Meier building, one BBP and one Hanson, but rowhouse on regular, decent, not spectacular blocks for over a million are largely stuck on hold. That's what I'm seeing.

Posted by: sam at May 8, 2009 1:47 PM

The biggest problem for someone buying these properties is financing. Not to see that it should or will get better. But even if buyer sentiment was there, the financing options are limited. (i.e. 30% cash down at 6.75% interest rate). This is much different than the single family, conforming loan market.
BHO - 1/2 of the comments are yours on this post. Take a deep breath.

Posted by: lincolnlimestone at May 8, 2009 1:52 PM

dibs' foray into the ghetto is looking better by the day. The idiot is claiming to throwing more money into it LOL. You can't make this s*hit up!

Posted by: cornerbodega at May 8, 2009 1:55 PM

Sing of how bad things got that 30% down and 6.75% rate is considered "limited financing". When I bought my 1st house no bank I went to considered requiring anything less than 20% down and interest rates were 8%.

Posted by: Boerum Hill at May 8, 2009 2:11 PM

Yup, bodega boy...got it and will spend it. No big deal. Stop commenting on what you'll never achieve.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 2:25 PM

Sam -I think your point is valid
the problem is(as a current seller of one of those buildings you mention) if I set my asking price at a much lower # let's say 100K less, are buyers perceiving it as a value OR are they still thinking - "wow they dropped the price by 100K 1.1mil which means I can offer 900K and hopefully get it for 950K"? you know? that's what I think many sellers fear

Posted by: gemini10 at May 8, 2009 2:31 PM

Grow up, corner, and get some perspective. DIBS clearly enjoys his home, enjoys the community, is sprucing up his home, and is of sufficient means to withstand whatever this recession throws his way. Happiness and fulfillment can't be measured in short-term fluctuations in equity. Your attempts at ridicule smack of the green-eyed monster. Hope one day you will find some meaningful way to enjoy life.

Posted by: slopefarm at May 8, 2009 2:32 PM

dibs, you talk a lot of cheerleading s*hit for somebody who lost 40% and counting on a huge asset. Any more $$$$ advice "Ghetto Money Manager"? Have a great weekend and oh, sweep that porch for your tenants. They're still as you proclaim "lining up to get in"? LOL

Posted by: cornerbodega at May 8, 2009 2:37 PM

The 2nd Place building is huge and a mess. It needs pretty close to a gut renovation. Yeah, you might, stress might, be able get $1.4 per unit if you can make it condos, but it is a legal 3 family which puts your total at $4.2 million.

It would probably take close to a million plus to do the renovations. AT $2.6 if you have the cash, experience, and know you can get it done quick, quality, and inexpensive it might be doable for a developer to make a $100-300k profit on it, but it's iffy right now...

It's a great property, but needs a ton of work.

Posted by: christopher at May 8, 2009 2:38 PM

Nope Slopfarm, obviously you don't follow dibs rants and his "superiority" attitude regarding investments. The crazy thing is, everybody knows what kind of fool he really is. SPECULATIVE GHETTO INVESTMENT GONE POOF!

Posted by: cornerbodega at May 8, 2009 2:39 PM

Who has lost 40% cornerbodega??? You apparently have no clue about anything to do with real estate since your only reason for being here is to mock someone whom you know absolutely nothing about. Complet & utter Moron.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 2:41 PM

I'll let others chime in on how much Bed Stuy has fallen...

Posted by: cornerbodega at May 8, 2009 2:43 PM

On a mostly unrelated topic:

Does anyone else read curbed on a regular basis? The comments on that board are of an astonishingly low quality. Every discussion is dominated by people with cornerbodega's general approach to debate (both the bulls and the bears). It really drives home for me how much the high quality of discussion on this site improves its usefulness.

Posted by: lechacal at May 8, 2009 2:44 PM

cornerbodega - Why on Earth would I speculate about how much DIBS's house has depreciated? I think he is the first to admit that prices have come down since he bought it. So what? It's not even clear to me what your goal is. Do you expect to get a cookie if all of a sudden he agrees with whatever it is you are saying?

Posted by: lechacal at May 8, 2009 2:46 PM

Dibs has constantly berated common sense bears with his so called "Money Manager" credentials. Thus, he'll continue to get abuse. Deservedly so...

Posted by: cornerbodega at May 8, 2009 2:50 PM

Corner
I don't recall Dibs ever really "berating" anyone except when he gets into tangles with The What or BHO or you
I think he respectually disagrees and stands by his positions, but I think many of us do that - some not so eloquently

Posted by: gemini10 at May 8, 2009 2:53 PM

"Dibs has constantly berated common sense bears with his so called "Money Manager" credentials"

Cornerbodega has constantly berated common sense posters with his lack of any credentials whatsoever.

In fact, common sense posters probably believe you're obsessed with berating me. Get a f*&cking life.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 2:54 PM

cornerbodega just sit back and relax. The shockwave from the explosion of the Mutant Asset Bubble is on it's way. Leave Dave alone, he's going to get "Fixed".

BHO Looks like the "Half Off" thing is coming true and the funny thing is so fucking soon!

Looks like Team Bullshit caught the falling running Chainsaw!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at May 8, 2009 2:57 PM

I personally loathe the term common sense. What it generally means is "don't think about it, just do it, no matter how dumb it is." But I digress. What bothers me is that rather than debating the ups and downs of Brooklyn real estate you attack one person's decision to buy his home. It reflects very badly on you and no one takes what you say seriously as a result. Yes DIBS has had his moments, but we all have. I think his biggest fault is allowing himself to get baited by people like you.

Posted by: lechacal at May 8, 2009 2:59 PM

"Yes DIBS has had his moments, but we all have.

When, when, name one, just one. :) LOL

"I think his biggest fault is allowing himself to get baited by people like you."

Na, I enjoy it. I feel bad though after I realize he's working with an intellectual handicap and, no credentials to speak of. Poor guy. He can't add anything to any discussion whatsoever.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 3:04 PM

Well, DIBS and I clearly disagree in our view of the current NY RE picture, and I think he sometimes uses less than dignified language in his posts - but nonetheless, I don't get cornerbodega's single-minded vendetta against him. When the comments shift into personal mud-slinging (as opposed to valid critiques of various real-estate-related arguments), it drags down the threads hugely. I'm very bearish, but certainly do not align myself with the camp that joyfully attacks - on a personal level - bulls, recent buyers, or current sellers (all of whom are in a tough spot right now).

Posted by: Miss Muffett at May 8, 2009 3:09 PM

Thanks all. The majority of people on here understand how people think regarding home ownership and that short-term ups and downs in the market really don't influence anything. I'll try and ignore his clever repartee for the integrity of the thread. :)

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 3:22 PM

Well DIBS, I must respectfully disagree with your statement: short-term ups and downs in the market don't influence anything."

They certainly DO influence things, hugely - such as whether buyers dive in or not. The short-term ups and downs have had an enormous influence on major life decisions of mine (to sell when I did, and now to wait to buy) since so much is at stake. The size of our next mortgage has a massive ripple effect on the stress we take on (income pressure), time spent with family, freedom to do other things, etc. but we are trying to balance those risks with our other goals (finding a property as close as possible to meeting our wish list, with some inevitable compromises, that can be our home).

For those home owners who are happily ensconced in their homes for the long haul and are lucky enough to have financial security right now, then yes, I can see your point about the short-term ups and downs not influencing *that* group. But there are many, many New Yorkers who are following and/or in the market who have very different circumstances, and for them, these ups and downs have huge repercussions that very much do influence them.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at May 8, 2009 3:28 PM

Corner,

You are a very selective reader of this site if you think I don't follow the discussions. I am well aware of your comments and DIBS's. My opinion is just different than yours.

Posted by: slopefarm at May 8, 2009 3:32 PM

From my perch I am seeing concrete signs of economic recovery. There are basic corporate transactions that no one was considering in Jan-Feb-Mar because everyone was holding their breath waiting for the next Lehman. I think the developing view is that things are pretty bad but there isn't another cliff to fall off so might as well get back to business (albeit at a lower level than when this all started).

To be clear I do not think this will change the direction of NYC real estate prices.

Posted by: lechacal at May 8, 2009 3:41 PM

Yes, Miss Muffett, I only meant it as you described in your third paragraph. Of course to those who have to sell and to those trying to buy it is of the utmost importance. However, I also believe that trying to guess a top or bottom, IN THE LONG RUN, will cause you more regret than its worth.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 3:42 PM

Right, lechacal. The financing that the major banks are getting done now along with the huge issuances by the likes of Dow Chemical and many others are definitely a sign the capital markets have firmed.

The economic numbers although they are just getting "less bad" are driving investor sentiment back into the market. Treasuries will continue to be sold for more risky investments. The Emerging markets have led the global market recovery.

Absolutely correct, Real Estate will be a longer, slower process.

Although the DOW has resistance at 9,000, the broaser SP500 has gone through its 900 resistance. I'm very nervous as to when to start taking money off the table here. It borders on greed right now and that's not a good thing. But, so many people have missed this move in the stock market.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 3:46 PM

I have been saying for a while that I am more comfortable holding US equities right now than NYC real estate. I remain of that view for the time being.

I was buying all the way down to 6500/650 :)

I'm not taking money off the table. I expect plenty of big temporary drops as the market regains its footing.

I could summarize my views as follows:

- I can go long S&P 500 right now and maybe lose 30%. I'm happy to take that risk.

- I can go long real estate by plunking down a 20% down payment and be completely wiped out - 100% loss - by this time next year.

An important factor is I am in all likelihood going to sell within 5 years of buying.

When I no longer have a confidence that prices are continuing to go down I will buy.

Again, I think, other than a few outliers, the only differences of opinion on this site relate to the amount of price declines left in this cycle.

Posted by: lechacal at May 8, 2009 3:55 PM

> "I am in all likelihood going to sell within 5 years of buying."

Then why buy at all?

Posted by: SnarkSlope at May 8, 2009 3:59 PM

I think we would all be relieved to think that the worst has passed in terms of what seems an endless downward spiral up until very recently. But, while I am hopeful that the coordinated policies to shore up the economy are halting further declines, I also think the recovery will be long and slow - not just in real estate but in many asset classes. The bubble was just too big and lasted too long.

I also think NY RE will continue to fall much more before it reaches a bottom. And DIBS, as I've stated repeatedly, I'm not trying to call the bottom. If we see the house we love at a reasonable price we can afford, we will buy - that is, we won't turn up our noses thinking it must have much further to fall. The problem, however, is that most sellers/brokers are far from being willing to accept a "reasonable" price right now - indeed, it's all the disagreement over what is "reasonable" that is freezing the NY market now. In a buyers market, only when sellers relent will the thaw begin.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at May 8, 2009 3:59 PM

My emerging markets mutual funds are doing very, very well. So I agree that emerging markets particularly far east markets are leading right now.
The other thing to consider is that money markets and cd's are paying back zip. You're better off putting the money in a vault in your basement. So people want to speculate a bit.
Unfortunately real estate here at home is still shaky. There is still demand for the top of the market, and the bottom, but no one knows what the middle product is worth. that is a bad sign, it means that it is not worth as much as the sellers think.
We're not out of the bear market yet in terms of real estate. in terms of stock, well, you never know when the next tsunami will swamp all the merkets or lift them to new highs. In the meantime don't give up your day job.

Posted by: sam at May 8, 2009 4:01 PM

"Then why buy at all?"

Goddamn AMT.

Posted by: lechacal at May 8, 2009 4:03 PM

As someone whose been on both sides of this --I've been a jerk to, and been berated by DIBS --one thought as to how he became a lightning rod. First, there is a double standard in finance, financial journalism, and policy that is reflected on the board: i.e., a bubble years bias in favor of bullishness, as nearly always an entirely rational expression of the stock market's pricing power, and a bias against bearishness, as panic, doom saying, chicken little, etc. When the bulls started losing out to the facts, sure enough, much of the discussion suddenly shifted to the life-negating jaundice of the bears. How about, instead of insinuating that I'll never savor the good life because I refuse to fork over 3 million for a house, a tiny bit of contrition on the part of people who told us RE always goes up?

Dave is talking about missing out on the latest move in stocks; ok, it's possible a new bull market is underway; it's also possible it's a sucker's rally. But I'd like to point out that I sold a huge portion of my equity portfolio when the DOW was above 12,000; and by the same prudence, am uninterested in townhouses that still seem overpriced by 40% at least.

Now, what in the above suggests I'm a fool an idiot, a stockboy at Target, etc etc? And yet this is what DIBS insists on calling me. And yet the bulls let this pass, while leaping all over What, cornerbodega, etc.

Posted by: Whuh at May 8, 2009 4:05 PM

Whuh has a great point - that bull double standard is spot on. Whuh's argument is sound and not worthy of the kind of ridicule bulls heap on. It's logical and respectful too.

DIBS - what do you have to say for yourself?

Posted by: Miss Muffett at May 8, 2009 4:10 PM

I think whuh does not realize that american capitalism is founded on optimism. that is the default mode. even fdr once famously admonished his countrymen telling them that what they had most to fear was fear itself, in other words, negativism, pessimism, defeatism.

Posted by: mcKenzie at May 8, 2009 4:27 PM

McKenzie, unfortunately, what the bulls considered "negativism, pessimism, defeatism" was really just rationality. It's all too clear that the "optimism" of the markets (up until the crash) was based on irrationality and in some instances, downright destructive greed. To suggest that prices today should be 1.5X what they were in 1999 hardly strikes me a "negative", but at the same time, that would represent a fall of 50% from peak.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at May 8, 2009 4:35 PM

I'm missing your point, Whuh. If I berated you it wasn't for something similar to what you just posted. You've posted some real crap at times.

I for one never said that real estate prices will always go up. In fact I continue to believe that the market will remain soft. However, like most of the bears, you cling to the 40% overpriced logic that is groundless. Others are in the 50-70% camp.

I never said the stock market was entirely rational. I do believe though that it is the leading indictor for sentiment and where the economy will go. Right now, that direction is upwards and I'm happy to be very long the market until I feel that greed has overtaken once again. In fact, I'm very nervous about it right now given the runup off of the bottom. We hold both long and short positions and the portfolio can be net short one day and net long two days later.

No contrition from me...I'm just in the market to make money. I DO NOT trade the real estate market like that. Nor do I believe anyone else should. I have however made lots of money in properties that I've held since the 90s and continue to hold.

My biggest gripe here is with the people that really don't understan the very long term attractiveness of real estate and the extremely long term benefits to owning over renting as you approach retirement.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 4:40 PM

Actually, most hedge funds operate under the opposite scenario MM and mcKenzie....they are notoriously bearish all the time, even against a rising stock market. What baffles me is how many of them got it soooo wrong in this past cycle, especially the downward part of it. They are mostly getting it wrong here on the upside now as well and are drastically underperforming the market. They make these big bets because they all think they are smarter than the market and they are not.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 4:43 PM

ms. muffett, i hear what you are saying, but so many successful projects could have been described as irrational at first by pessimists. the dichotomy exists between those that look down and those that look up. That is not to say that pessimists cannot be right, they are correct every so often, but what do they accomplich with their pessimism?
on the other hand the optimists accomplish a lot. The Brooklyn Bridge was not built by a pessimist. The Dutch settlers on the edge of a scary wilderness did not think they would pay less for manhattan if they waited a couple of more months. I mean most things that have moved us forward as a civilization could have been described as really demented at the time. How about building a giant female made of copper in the middle of the harbor on top of an old fort?

Posted by: mcKenzie at May 8, 2009 4:58 PM

I don't own hedge funds dave.
I think they are a little sinister.
Kind of like shell games.
I don't think they embody the right values.

Posted by: mcKenzie at May 8, 2009 5:02 PM

McKenzie - I get your point, but it is so vague and general as to come off as pollyannish. To say that pessimists "are correct every so often" is a huge understatement. And mind you, I would not frame it as optimists vs. pessimists but rather realism vs. irrationality. How is it pessimistic to project a nice, steady rate of growth of say, 5-7%? That would be sustainable in RE, not "pessimistic". But the bulls who thought it made perfect sense for RE to double and triple in short periods were not "optimists" - they were irrational, as it is now painfully clear that the values had lost all touch with reality and thus collapsed.

Realists accomplish a lot too - arguably more in the long run than you what you call "optimists", since they attempt to build their accomplishments on solid foundations, not on the sand of a ponzi scheme.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at May 8, 2009 5:05 PM

WOW, MM to equate optimists with "building on the sand of a ponzi scheme" is quite harsh. I agree with mcKenzie that more good and more progress comes out of optimistic, long term thinking than of pessimism.

One thing though mcKenzie, we didn't build that big lady made of copper. Somebody gave it to us, merci.

This line I wish to borrow from you and use in subsequent threads........"The Dutch settlers on the edge of a scary wilderness did not think they would pay less for manhattan if they waited a couple of more months. " Fantastic

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 5:11 PM

Miss M,

What are you looking for in a home? I read this a lot but have always wanted to ask you that. In an ideal (but realistic world) what would you like your place to look like, where?, how much would you like to spend? You have mentioned something on 11th Street that you liked but you have critisized North Slope in reference to the Dean Street place. Why South Slope over North? Why brownstone over limestone if so?

Posted by: LincolnSlope at May 8, 2009 5:31 PM

Lincoln....beers at Waterfront Ale House next Thursday???

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 5:41 PM

Lincolnslope, we are actually fairly flexible so yes, we have a list of criteria (sunny, decent school, minimum sf for us if there's a rental, NOT new construction, etc.) but it's not doctrinaire i.e. I like most facades - brownstone, brick, limestone, even some frames (as long as it's not aluminum siding). We've had a few near misses in the past (pre-crash) so it's not like we've never seen anything we like. We're just more cautious now that time is on our side regarding prices - but we are very much actively looking and ready to go should the right thing come along with a reasonable price.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at May 8, 2009 5:48 PM

DIBS,

agreed on your points. Leveraged, tax advantaged long term real estate investments can be a superior strategy. There will be ups and downs in valuations like any other asset class, we can all speculate on that if we choose.

What & and all the other guys get fired up on their claims of 50% drops etc. But as I've said before, when the time comes to retire and folks do not have sufficient assets to make that happen comfortably, perhaps they will second guess not including this asset class.

Posted by: 10thStreetReno at May 8, 2009 5:50 PM

10thStreetReno: The past is not the future.

Posted by: lechacal at May 8, 2009 6:08 PM

Dave, the French gave us a hundred crates. Americans had to find a site, build an enormous pedestal and put miss liberty together. the pedestal was a really big deal, nay-sayers called it a huge waste of money, a tasteless boondoggle, and a vulgar giantess.
The New York Times editorial board was dead set against it.
the upper crust (the hedge fund managers of the time) thought it was declasse and outlandish, as we all now it was due to the efforts of the tabloid papers that a drive commenced to gather pennies from NYC's school children to finance the pedestal and the construction of the statue. it is an interesting story.

Posted by: mcKenzie at May 8, 2009 7:27 PM

And yet she made it onto much of the US coinage!!!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at May 8, 2009 8:12 PM

Going by the photos and floor plan on the Second Place house, it was once an extraordinary and gracious house that has been chopped up into little drywalled apartments with flimsy new doors. How sad.

Posted by: mopar at May 8, 2009 11:49 PM

« 14 Hope Street Takes a Mulligan Open House Picks »

May 8, 2009

Open House Picks: Six Months Later

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