« Weekday Events Open Thread »

April 20, 2009

Real Estate: The New Obscenity?

The lead article in the real estate section of The New York Times this weekend attempts to make the case that real estate has gone from Topic No. 1 to Topic Non Grata in the last six months. “Nobody wants to talk about it," The Times quotes one hedge fund manager as saying. We're not so sure that's the case. People may be acting more discreetly when they bring it up, but, in our experience, it's still just as much on everyone's minds as before, although now, instead of being obsesses with how much the value of their house has gone up, it's all about how far the value has fallen. Have you noticed a decrease in the amount people are talking about real estate or just a different tone?
Don’t Even Say the Words [NY Times]
Photo by solupine

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.brownstoner.com/mte/mt-tb.cgi/9369

Comments

After cats, its still the most talked-about topic on brownstoner!!!

Hope you all had a good weekend. As opposed to many of us on team Bull that have other subjects to talk about and add to, its the only thing that members of Team Bear can talk about. :)

Let the fighting begin.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 9:04 AM

Good morning all. Hope you had a good weekend.
I’m going to post this now so The What doesn’t have to do it later.

http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com/2009/04/leaked-bank-stress-test-reults.html

LEAKED! Bank Stress Test Results!
The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.

The stress tests were conducted to determine how well, if at all, the top 19 banks in the USA could withstand further or future economic hardship.

When the tests were completed, regulators within the Treasury and inside the Federal Reserve began bickering with each other as to whether or not the test results should be made public. That bickering continues to this very day as evidenced by this "main stream media" report.

The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.

6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!

7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!

The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.

Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total collapse.

More details as they become available. . . . . .

Posted by: the chicken at April 20, 2009 9:05 AM

Funny chicken. My webwasher blocked it due to "Hate/Discrimination"

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 9:09 AM

This was off my radar, thanks Chicken!

"1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent."

Not "technically" they are insolvent!

"3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding."

"Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total collapse."

Say Buh bye...

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 9:16 AM

haha - the tagline to the blog is "Free Speech; no matter who doesn't like it."

Posted by: the chicken at April 20, 2009 9:17 AM

it's currently the 3rd most read Bloomberg story of the last hour, despite it returning an "error retrieving story" message.

Posted by: the chicken at April 20, 2009 9:18 AM

interesting take on it from the Zero Hedge blog and I've gotta agree.

"You lose your credibility when you use sources like Hal Turner who, among other nonsense, espouses the killing of all Jews."

http://tinyurl.com/c8amub

Indeed. When you hear the sky is falling always remember just who is telling you the sky is falling.

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at April 20, 2009 9:21 AM

Its no longer available on Bloomberg. This is most likely a hoax.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 9:22 AM

Back to Mr. B's original question:

My brick and mortar friends do not talk RE the way we used to, but it is not due to changes in RE values. We talked about it incessantly when we were all looking and buying -- first co-ops and then houses. Then that shifted into complaints about our contractors. And, of course, we alwasy talk about our kids. Sure, in the bubble, there was the occasional "can you believe what that house on __ street sold for?" which, of course, doesn't happen now. But really, it is the changes in our lives, not RE, that has changed our conversations. We do talk more about people we know who have been hurt in the recession and how they are doing. And we talk about other mundane topic -- politics, the arts, our lives, goings on in the community, etc. Oh, and of course, we talk about cats.

Posted by: slopefarm at April 20, 2009 9:25 AM

For those of you who don't know Hal Turner...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Turner

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at April 20, 2009 9:25 AM

To answer the original posts question... I'm finding that people are hesitant to talk about it, but not because of the reason you would assume (things bad etc.). Rather, I've talked to many people in the last few weeks who have had GOOD experiences (found great deal on house, got tenants for more than last year, refinanced into better rate, can finally afford to buy etc.) and it seems they are worried they might rub it in someone's nose who isn't having a positive experience if they talk about it. Whenever I ask or mention a good experience of mine it is like I let air out of a balloon- the relief is palpable that they are "allowed" to tell their good story.

Posted by: amybnyc at April 20, 2009 9:26 AM

the "error retrieving story" message is likely due to the external linking of the story and it being blocked by webwasher.

I agree that the source should always has to be considered when taking a view on the veracity of information but you also have to ask yourself whether you would be particularly surprised if the story turns out to be true?

Posted by: the chicken at April 20, 2009 9:29 AM

Everyone should calm down about the questionable blog post. After all, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said said "Early in May you will see in a systematic and coordinated way the transparency of determining and showing to all involved some of the results of these stress tests."

Posted by: Bklnite at April 20, 2009 9:32 AM

"I agree that the source should always has to be considered when taking a view on the veracity of information but you also have to ask yourself whether you would be particularly surprised if the story turns out to be true?

Thats like saying, "yeah I know Adolf Hitler was an crazy despot but maybe he was right about those Jews."

How stupid.

No, chicken. I question the source. ALWAYS.

It works both ways. When the NY Times runs some Barbara Corcoran fueled ass kiss piece on what a great time it is to buy right now, I think THAT is a bunch of bs just as well.

But Hal Turner? C'mon. Seriously?

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at April 20, 2009 9:38 AM

Chicken I told the retards on Brownstoner 18 months ago that the major Banks was insolvent (Go look for yourself). One retard told me to "stop spreading rumors" and now look what we got a big mess. That memo got leaked so the Big Boy can front run the May collapse! The funny thing is it's very true! America's Banking System is FUBAR!

The dumbasses don't want to talk about Real Estate anymore. The collapse of the Mutant Asset Bubble is in full blast..

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 9:39 AM

I figured the What would believe it. Critical thinking at its best.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 9:40 AM

Time mag is reporting "Stress Test Results: Most Banks Likely to Pass" so probably no need to run to your bank this morning.

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1892401,00.html

Posted by: Bklnite at April 20, 2009 9:42 AM

slopefarm--your answer is far too reasonable for this thread! But yes, I would say that in my circle of friends there has been a similar progression. Most of us who were going to buy houses have done so and we all do have kids, which become topic number one generally. Now that the decisions have been made about what and where to buy, the importance of real estate as a topic of conversation has certainly dwindled.

Posted by: wasder at April 20, 2009 9:42 AM

To be fair to the Chicken,I'd add that Time magazine as source should also be questioned. Time mag is in no position to claim the sky is falling but it is a bit more, um...balanced than Hal Turner.

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at April 20, 2009 9:48 AM

When something hits the cover of Newsweek you can be sure that its fully discounted by the market and its time to think contrary to the article!!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 9:50 AM

Thanks Prodigal Son,

I've no idea whether there is any truth to the story but figured that The What would come to it eventually - hence my getting it in there first.

Having said that, I don't really put much stock behind TIME magazine either - the crack team that bought you this:

http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,20050613,00.html

Posted by: the chicken at April 20, 2009 9:53 AM

Does anybody still get their news from magazines anymore when you can get it all real-time online?

Posted by: Biff Champion at April 20, 2009 9:56 AM

Chicken;

I think you're being unfair to Time. Remember their recent riveting cover story on why Kate Winslett deserves to win the Best Actress Oscar. I understand that they had to assign a whole team of reporters to unearth this story.

Seriously, someone should take Time and Newsweek behind the barn and shoot them out of their misery.

Posted by: benson at April 20, 2009 9:58 AM

Biff-

I havent bought or read a "news"magazine in probably 7-8 years.

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at April 20, 2009 9:58 AM

Guys you need to get your arms around this thing! The US Banking system is INSOLVENT!! They know it and trying to come up with a solution to "manage" it. My opinion is someone leaked this memo and the Big Boys are going to front run it! The major banks have billions of off sheet liabilities (level 3 assets) and are holding them at par! When those assets start taking their marks all hell is gonna break lose. If you want to believe that Time story go right ahead at your peril...

The What (7 months)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 10:06 AM

The time story was from 2005, What. get a grip today.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 10:09 AM

What-

I don't "believe" the Time story as much as I don't "believe" the Turner hyperbole as much as I don't "believe"....you.

Critical thinking is about making sense of a barrage of information and figuring a medium point where the truth lies. Believing in absolute truth is dangerous, short sighted and naive.

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at April 20, 2009 10:12 AM

I posted the Time link because it came up on a news search and it's a little more credible than some crackpot holocaust denier's blog - not that it's an unquestioned source of truth. Speed is the enemy of truth so I wouldn't want to throw out all old school journalism because "you can get it all real-time online".

The link to the 2005 cover the chicken is not surprising -- just mainstream media covering the housing obsession. And they did have a story on "The Case for Renting."

Posted by: Bklnite at April 20, 2009 10:18 AM

I was at a party last week and the topic (for a while) was real estate. But the tone was different from a few years back. It was about selling, renting, moving upstate, downsizing, how far the commute to Ridgewood is...

Posted by: Carol Gardens at April 20, 2009 10:21 AM

"I don't "believe" the Time story as much as I don't "believe" the Turner hyperbole as much as I don't "believe"....you."

Hey that's OK Prodigal Son it's your world but I'm not trying to make this a fight.

"Critical thinking is about making sense of a barrage of information and figuring a medium point where the truth lies."

Like telling everyone in '05 we was going to have a Real Estate crash and no one believe me? Like calling the crash of fall "08 and where was the "critical thinking"???

"Believing in absolute truth is dangerous, short sighted and naive. "

Well.. Here is a couple of truths. The US banking system is insolvent due to all the toxic garbage we sold people around the world. Our obligations to Social Security and Medicaid is underfunded! We have raging inflation and high unemployment. Asset values are CRASHING (Don't believe the hype)! In 7 months all hell is going to break lose!!

That's what I call Critical Thinking...

The What (7 months)

Someday this war is gonna end....

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 10:24 AM

I went to a few open houses in Park Slope and Prospect Heights this weekend, and they were all pretty well attended. So I'd say the conversation is still happening.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at April 20, 2009 10:29 AM

I'm the only one of my friends talking about real estate because I'm the only one house hunting. Dometimes those who already own say they can't believe how far prices have fallen and they're glad because maybe more people can buy a place now. There are a few who don't say anything. I think they bought in a location they don't want to live thinking they would flip in two years, and now they're upset they have to stay there.

How can Citibank declare a profit while simultaneously being insolvent?

Posted by: mopar at April 20, 2009 11:31 AM

mopar- might Citibanks declaring a profit have to do with the fact that they aren't processing loans lately?

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at April 20, 2009 11:32 AM

Hey What?
Why 7 months? What's supposed to happen then?

Posted by: gemini10 at April 20, 2009 11:34 AM

job security or the lack of it is taking much of the spot light. Plus think real estate is in limbo - price and transaction volume wise.

if real estate prices move up or down 10%, people will begin to yap about it (good or bad)

Posted by: more4less at April 20, 2009 11:42 AM

We still talk about real estate in the office. One of the associate executives and her boyfriend bought a two-family co-op on Irving Place a week ago she got a really good price, she said, due to the devaluations. Another person here is in the middle of a lengthy short sale negotiation for house in Jersey. We still talk, but the talk is about opportunity driven by the weakened market.

Posted by: East New York at April 20, 2009 12:03 PM

"One of the associate executives and her boyfriend bought a two-family co-op"

ENY do you mean two family house?

Posted by: wasder at April 20, 2009 12:06 PM

2 family coop = new improved tax structure ppty type to offset some of the tax hikes shoved thru by NYC. JK

Posted by: more4less at April 20, 2009 12:17 PM

from www.kunstler.com, James Howard Kunstler's weekly column:

"The truth is that we're comprehensively bankrupt, and no amount of shuffling certificates around will avail to alter that. The bad debt has to be "worked out" -- i.e. written off, subjected to liquidation of remaining assets and collateral, reorganized under the bankruptcy statutes, and put behind us. We have to work very hard to reconfigure the physical arrangement of life in the USA, moving away from the losses of our suburbs, reactivating our towns, downscaling our biggest cities, re-scaling our farms and food production, switching out our Happy Motoring system for public transit and walkable neighborhoods, rebuilding local networks of commerce, and figuring out a way to make a few things of value again.
What's happened instead is what I most feared: that our politicians would mount a massive campaign to sustain the unsustainable. That's what all the TARP and TARF and PPIT and bailouts are about. It will all amount to an exercise in futility and could easily end up wrecking the USA in every sense of the term."

Posted by: zuleika at April 20, 2009 12:40 PM

"What's happened instead is what I most feared: that our politicians would mount a massive campaign to sustain the unsustainable."

Wow--really scary quote. Not being an economist I can't say for sure that Kunstler is correct but he definitely strikes a chord with me. So many fundamental aspects about the way we live in the USA need reformation. Thanks for posting Zuleika.

Posted by: wasder at April 20, 2009 12:48 PM

US good at making stuff of mass destruction - physical and financial types

Posted by: more4less at April 20, 2009 12:54 PM

"ENY do you mean two family house?"

Um, I SHOULD have said "two-bedroom co-op." I was rushing to the conference room to get in on the FREE lunch today!

Posted by: East New York at April 20, 2009 1:01 PM

What. I can take your personal thoughts on the direction of real estate prices. Fair enough - but don't go on about the SFAS 157 disclosure and level 3 assets when it's clear you don't know what you are talking about. The level 3 (unobservable assets) disclosure tells you little if anything of a financial firms impending writedowns or financial health. Any first year analyst will tell you the disclosure has several flaws.

As for everything being priced at par - that's simply not correct to say. No doubt there's more pain to come, but given the US govt has given the financial system it's backing it's not going to fail. Worst case Govt takes equity position, cleans things up and then sells it stake. that may take a long time but it will not be the end of civilisation.

Posted by: 10thStreetReno at April 20, 2009 1:04 PM

Who is James Howard Kunstler? Apparently we agree.

Also:

*We need health care.
*We need regulation -- break up the banks, bring back usury laws.

Posted by: mopar at April 20, 2009 1:20 PM

As long as we're doing consider-the-source here, we should do the same for James Howard Kunstler. Like many commentators out there, he sees the financial crisis as justifying his own personal hobbyhorse: reorganizing American life around small, self-sustaining, walkable towns. (Why does the bank crisis call for the downscaling of big cities? Because all things lead Kunstler to the conclusion that all Americans, like James Howard Kunstler, should move to small towns in upstate New York or the equivalent.) He's advocated that for decades, and over the years has also used--among other things--the Peak Oil theory and the Y2K "crisis" as an argument for it.

Mind you, I'm not saying he's wrong about the banks and the economy. For all I know he's right. But he is someone with a strong motivation to find evidence to support a particular conclusion.

Posted by: basementalist at April 20, 2009 1:29 PM

"Fair enough - but don't go on about the SFAS 157 disclosure and level 3 assets when it's clear you don't know what you are talking about. The level 3 (unobservable assets) disclosure tells you little if anything of a financial firms impending writedowns or financial health."

Oh no????!! Ok genius- Why is Citibank hiding 1 trillion dollars in level 3 assets? Why did the clowns change "Mark To Market" rules to "Make believe now please rules"????

When not if those Level 3 Assets get a price it will take down the whole financial system!

I love intellectual idiots like you because you will get vaporized in the explosion of the Mutant Asset Bubble.

10thStreetReno You better hurry up on that flip, ROTFLMMFAO!!!!

Houston to retards: The US Banking System Is INSOLVENT!!!!!!!!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end..

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 1:34 PM

Doesn't this article kind of contradict itself? (Ha ha ha ha ha...that was hilarious, no?)

Okay, here we go...

"The Times quotes one hedge fund manager as saying..."

Correction: [former] hedge fund manager

"...many of us on team Bull that have other subjects to talk about and add to..."

Like the article said, 'Nobody wants to talk about it'.

"Let the fighting begin."

Wouldn't be a fight. It'd be a first round knockout.

"Sure, in the bubble, there was the occasional 'can you believe what that house on __ street sold for?' which, of course, doesn't happen now."

Actually, it does happen now. People still overpay. It's a lot more impressive now (for the sellers). Hence the gawking more intense.

Very good point (or question, what's with the '?'). Naysayers try to hypnotize and confuse with smoke and mirrors. If even a sex offender told me there was a man with a gun out, I'd listen.

"Time mag is reporting 'Stress Test Results: Most Banks Likely to Pass' so probably no need to run to your bank this morning."

Time Mag said 'no housing bubble'. Time Mag said 'contained subprime problem'. Time Mag said 'no recession'. Time Mag says this. Time Mag says that. Herd mentality and the madness of crowds never ceases to amaze me. Who do you think controls these media outlets? It's propaganda, sheepfeed.

"When something hits the cover of Newsweek you can be sure that its fully discounted by the market and its time to think contrary to the article!!!!"

A rare commonwall of agreement between DIBS and myself.

"if real estate prices move up or down 10%, people will begin to yap about it (good or bad)"

IF (down)??? Yap yap yap...(a continuation, not a beginning)

"One of the associate executives and her boyfriend bought a two-family co-op on Irving Place a week ago she got a really good price..."

This early in the crash? Probably not. I bet load blown. Revisit in a year.

Outstanding find, zuleika at April 20, 2009 12:40 PM! That is bullseye. Dead center. Hopelessly trying to sustain the unsustainable was exactly the cause of the Great Depression and Japan's Lost Decade (zombie banks, 28 Quarters Later) and is exactly why we have entered the playout of a similar fate if not worse. Very scary. You have to understand this and prepare yourself and your families.

Back to the leak above. This is HUGE.

Off to my bank while the line is still short...(Just kidding but not really. I'm pankicking!) Fractional reserve should be called fragilly reserved.

***Bid half off peak comps (relatively bullish tagline?)***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 20, 2009 1:44 PM

Maybe someone posted this, but I haven't come across it. From The Brookyn Paper:

The Brooklyn real-estate bust continues
By Ben Muessig
The Brooklyn Paper
The collapsing economy is being blamed for a 35-percent drop in the number of properties sold in the borough’s once-booming housing market in the first quarter of this year compared to the last part of 2008.
Worse, the first quarter of 2009 is off 57 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008.
The bad news — contained in a new report from the real-estate consulting firm Miller Samuel, which conducted the study for the Prudential Douglas Elliman real-estate firm — follows a trend that started last year, when the economy imploded, mostly because of a housing market bust.
The new report shows that sales plunged in all property types and extended from neighborhoods like Williamsburg and Greenpoint (which reported a 40.8-percent decline in sales compared to the previous quarter), the Brownstone Belt (where the number of sales plunged 46.7 percent compared to the previous quarter), and Bay Ridge (which logged a 32.3-percent fall in sales compared to the previous quarter).
The drop in sales was caused in part by unrealistic asking prices, according to researchers.
“Sellers are significantly behind the market,” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. “They are looking at the last high water mark in their building or in their neighborhood and pricing at that point, but the market has changed quite a bit over the past year or year and a half and there is a real disconnect.”
Broker Allen Barcelon who specializes in Boerum Hill — a neighborhood where the number of sales dropped by 56.3 percent compared to the previous quarter — agreed that the price tags are a big part of the problem.
“People are pricing them wrong — there has to be a drastic reduction in asking prices,” said Barcelon, who urged sellers to ask for 15 percent less than estimated pre-crash property values (though, obviously, few are eager to do that). “And you better clean it, paint it, and make it look beautiful if you want it to sell.”
The drop in the number of sales was coupled with declines in sales prices compared to the previous quarter, with plunges of 20.2 percent in brownstones and 11.5 percent in North Brooklyn condos — two markets that insiders predicted would weather the storm.
The borough’s real-estate experts weren’t afraid to pin some of the blame on the contracting credit market.
“The problem is that the mortgage environment is so brutal right now,” said broker Chris Havens. “The banks lent too much, now they are lending too little.”
Looser lending might not bring the housing market back to its peak, but it could result in more closures, according to Havens.
“There are definitely more customers than sales — and there is certainly a lot of product out there,” he noted.
Unfortunately for sellers, the market’s recovery might remain a long way off.
Researchers did observe an increase in sales towards the end of the quarter, but they tempered any optimism by linking the upswing to the housing market’s traditional spring uptick. Next quarter’s report will show whether this year’s uptick was stronger or weaker than previous years’.

Posted by: bridges at April 20, 2009 1:54 PM

"Why is Citibank hiding 1 trillion dollars in level 3 assets? Why did the clowns change 'Mark To Market' rules to 'Make believe now please rules'????"

We're waiting, 10thStreetReno. Care to respond? C'mon, take a break from the laminate flooring snap-on! Why the rule change?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 20, 2009 2:00 PM

"The collapsing economy is being blamed for a 35-percent drop in the number of properties sold in the borough’s once-booming housing market..."

And the collapsing RE market is being blamed for the collapsing economy. They were one and the same. What a spiral. What a mess.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 20, 2009 2:04 PM

"We're waiting, 10thStreetReno. Care to respond? C'mon, take a break from the laminate flooring snap-on! Why the rule change?"

BHO this retard is reading the Lis Pendens stuccoed to his door...

The What (7 months...)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 2:08 PM

The people I know still talk a lot about real estate. But that is because people still think there is an opportunity to jump in and capture value on a price dip. I agree with the observation in the NYTimes article that the real market bottom will be charactarized by silence and apathy on the part of buyers. We are a ways from being there.

Went to some open houses this weekend. Plenty of people there, but I doubt there is much real buying interest. I haven't seen any value in what is being offered. Asking prices are still very high and I can't really be bothered to run around lowballing everyone. I would rather let the market do my work for me and buy at market price after prices have fallen a ways more. So I continue to wait.

Posted by: lechacal at April 20, 2009 2:10 PM

Hey you know something? Where are the retards????? Yoo Hoo!!! Come out to playa..

Hey Dave take that bong out of your Ass! We need someone to smash on!

Hey where are these guys LMMFAO!!!!! Hello....

The What (Maybe this war is gonna end soon)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 2:12 PM

"“The problem is that the mortgage environment is so brutal right now,” said broker Chris Havens. “The banks lent too much, now they are lending too little.”

With no disrespect to Chris Havens, who is a member of this forum I respect, isn't
part of the problem inflated prices and not just the lender?

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at April 20, 2009 2:22 PM

You miss me What??? I was out dragging my knucles after smokin somethin.

There will ALWAYS be money to be made in RE over the long term.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 2:32 PM

Here's the price data from the PDE report that I posted last week....

Here's the data for various categories:

Average Selling Price 1Q09 vs. 4Q07 (arguably the peak):

1-3 Family market: $641k vs. $671k, -4.4%
North: $559k vs. $632k, -11.5%
South: $508k vs. $525k, -3.2%
East: $432k vs. $537k, -19.5%
Northwest: $807k vs. $775k, !

Hardly half off recent comps.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 16, 2009 9:33 AM

Still good things to talk about.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 2:38 PM

Boiled frog.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at April 20, 2009 2:40 PM

"There will ALWAYS be money to be made in RE over the long term."

I agree with you 100%! You make more money when it crashes!

I need your take on this story Dave!

AIG, Morgan Stanley Should Recoup Pay, Fund Contends (Update3)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ann7bKVM7yA0&refer=home

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and other companies squandered more than $5 billion on executive pay since 2005 and must recoup the payments or face lawsuits, a pension fund said.

The Service Employees International Union’s pension fund said today it sent letters to 29 companies, which also include Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., demanding that directors recover “incentivized executive pay” based on derivatives or other investments whose values were written off.

I think it's a big can of worms. also the chatter is States AG's are going to file lawsuits to recoup loses to their state pension funds! This is going to be fun..

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 2:41 PM

Snark...if you're not going to add something intelligent to this intelligent conversation we're all having here then get your sorry ass back obver to the OT :)

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 2:42 PM

I think how much and how you talk about real estate these days depends on who you're talking to. With friends of mine who are renting, or sold pre-crash, we do talk about it a lot - and mainly our talk is how the prices need to come down further, and the opportunities that will probably arise, albeit with some more waiting (since the correction is just beginning). But I certainly keep silent around friends who currently are trying to sell, or who bought recently, since I think it could be a painful subject for them.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at April 20, 2009 2:46 PM

What...that's just grasping at straws. That'll get thrown out of court so fast its ridiculous. To actually discuss the issue though you'd have to start by saying they were shareholders and they could vote as shareholders and if they didn't like what was going on they could have sold their shares.

Thats like suing your parents for your poor upbringing. Not yours in particular but you know what I mean.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 2:48 PM

"BHO this retard is reading the Lis Pendens stuccoed to his door..."

Everybody's looking at me. I tried to hold it in.

Spot on, lechacal. Waiting is in effect saving for a larger % downpayment. You don't even need income. Let the prices come to you.

I had an ephiphany this weekend. Up until now, I kind of bought into the idea that you have to do the math with higher interest rates to optimize a bottom buy. But I am now regurgitating this notion. Higher rates are detrimental to prices and therefore add to the magnitude of the already downward pressure. So, no math needed. It's an automatic adjustment. Imagine prices stabilizing while rates are frozen. If you then raised rates, prices would begin falling again. As a practical/realistic matter, what we are likely to see before the bottom is in, is prices decelerating even faster when rates do go north. In closing, I think it's safe to wait for the absolute bottom (Zero change in Case-Shiller Index from last year) no matter where interest rates are.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 20, 2009 2:53 PM

But BHO, what has typically happened in the past when rates were low for awhile and then STARTED to rise, is that people flock into the market because they begin to believe that rates will CONTINUE to rise and they get scared into buying. Ask Adam about that phenomenon.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 2:55 PM

"Still good things to talk about."

Operative word: 'Still'.

I'm with MM @ 2:46. Very selective around who I 'preach the gospel' to. Even those I've warned repeatedly. It gets real quite when RE comes up. BTW, that photo in the thread article is priceless.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 20, 2009 3:01 PM

"igher rates are detrimental to prices and therefore add to the magnitude of the already downward pressure. So, no math needed. It's an automatic adjustment. Imagine prices stabilizing while rates are frozen. If you then raised rates, prices would begin falling again. As a practical/realistic matter, what we are likely to see before the bottom is in, is prices decelerating even faster when rates do go north. In closing, I think it's safe to wait for the absolute bottom (Zero change in Case-Shiller Index from last year) no matter where interest rates are."

Retard Translation: Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah My head hurts Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah ........

"hat has typically happened in the past when rates were low for awhile and then STARTED to rise, is that people flock into the market because they begin to believe that rates will CONTINUE to rise and they get scared into buying."

Thanks Dave!

"Ask Adam about that phenomenon."

Adam is working at Trader Joe's now. The new FHA guidelines killed his business..

The What (Where are the rest of the retards??)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 3:03 PM

Luckily I don't know anyone who bought recently and now need to sell. I agree, it would be very uncomfortable to talk about these issues with them.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 3:03 PM

"...people flock into the market because they begin to believe that rates will CONTINUE to rise and they get scared into buying."

Doesn't matter. As long as Case-Shiller stays deep in the red, its a losing proposition because the effect of the higher rates has to play itself out. If this scramble to lock in rates happens after Case-Shiller has stabilized, then yeah, strike while the iron's hot. But it all comes down to that index, coupled with a few market reports here and there and a little antedoctal evidence (index confirmation/verification/reality check).

I don't think Adam is that old. Even if he is, he hasn't lived through a boom/bust like this one. What could he tell me that the historical record doesn't? Besides, aside from tax spikes, wasn't it higher interest rates that tripped the 80's/90's bust?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 20, 2009 3:14 PM

Yes, but those rates were in the teens. A big difference from what will occur with rates in this cycle.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 3:16 PM

"Retard Translation: Blah Blah Blah..."

"Adam is working at Trader Joe's now. The new FHA guidelines killed his business..."

Chill, What! You're wasting my afternoon coffee!

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 20, 2009 3:17 PM

BHO...that "Retard Translation: Blah, Blah" was directed at your comment in case you hadn't realized.

You'd be surprised how busy mortgage refis are right now.

Remember, 90%, 85%, 80% (pick your own made up number) of the people are still employed.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 3:24 PM

An update on the artcle the chicken posted:

Reuters - 20 April 2009 12:31 pm ET - The U.S. Treasury said Monday there was "no basis" for a report that said its "stress tests" on the health of the nation's 19 top banks showed several were "technically insolvent."

A Treasury spokesman said the department has not yet received the results.

The Turner Radio Network, which describes itself as a "free speech" blog, said 16 of the 19 are "technically insolvent," citing what it said was a U.S. government report. Shares of several banks fell sharply on the report.

"There is no basis for that report; we do not even have results yet," Treasury Spokesman Andrew Williams said.

The Obama administration has said the results would be released on May 4.

Bank stocks, already lower after Bank of America reported disappointing quarterly results and outlook, fell further. The Select Sector SPDR Financial ETF was down 5.4 percent after the blog post was widely disseminated by at least two third-party news services.

After the market open the KBW Bank Index fell 9.3 percent.
The site, http://tinyurl.com/dabtbj, is not related to Turner Broadcasting.

"It certainly did (move the market) for a while. It raised people's eyebrows. People had associated it with (Ted) Turner's broadcast network," said Lou Brien, market strategist with DRW Trading in Chicago.

The blog said "Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in nonpaying loans."

"If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding," the post added.

The blog was picked up by some third-party news services and cited by another trader for the drop in bank shares.

The Turner Radio Network is described by some monitoring groups as a white supremacist organization.

Posted by: Violet at April 20, 2009 3:26 PM

I told you it was a hoax about 10 minutes after he posted it.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 3:29 PM

Pulled from Yahoo at 2PM:

Will Bank "Stress Tests" Kill Market...or Government Credibility?

Believe it or not, the "stress tests" that the government is performing to see how that banks will do if the economy continues to get worse were originally intended to inspire confidence.

The government would subject the banks to all sorts of horrifying scenarios, the theory went, and it would then report that the banks had passed with flying colors--thus reassuring a nervous public that the financial system was sound.

Alas, from the beginning, the stress tests weren't stressful enough. The government then said it was planning to withhold the results of the stress test to avoid harming the bad banks--which defeated the whole purpose.

Josh Rosner, managing director at Graham Fisher, is as frustrated as many analysts with the flaws of the stress tests, but he hasn't lost all hope. Rosner cites two key dates: Friday, April 24, when the government will reveal details of the tests, and May 4th, when some "results" will be revealed. He says he hopes the tests will force the government to begin to differentiate between strong banks and weak banks, which he thinks is critical to the recovery process.

"The severity with which we actually handle those institutions that are most sick as a result of this will define the credibility of the administration’s approach," Rosner adds.

Meanwhile, if the government just announces that all banks are in robust health, its credibility will be destroyed. So there's a lot riding on those results.

Posted by: bridges at April 20, 2009 3:54 PM

"Reuters - 20 April 2009 12:31 pm ET - The U.S. Treasury said Monday there was "no basis" for a report that said its "stress tests" on the health of the nation's 19 top banks showed several were "technically insolvent."

A Treasury spokesman said the department has not yet received the results."

Yep I was waiting for that and now this!

Treasury: Caught Lying Again

http://market-ticker.org/archives/972-Treasury-Caught-Lying-Again.html

Plus Karl PWNED it home!

Fed Said to Order Banks to Stay Mum on ‘Stress Test’ Results

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEX9sBcofMYY&refer=home

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.

THEY KNOW WHO IS DEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"The Fed wants to ensure that the report cards don’t leak during earnings conference calls scheduled for this month. Such a scenario might push stock prices lower for banks perceived as weak and interfere with the government’s plan to release the results in an orderly fashion later this month."

WOW IS EARNING REPORT TIME WHAT A FUCKING COINCIDENCE!!!!

"Regulators are using the tests to determine whether the 19 biggest banks have enough capital to cover loan losses during the next two years if the economy shrinks, unemployment surges and housing prices keep declining. The tests are a linchpin of the plan Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced in February to bolster confidence in the nation’s banks and restore financial-market stability."

ALL OF IT IS DEAD DEAD DEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CODE BLUE!!!!!!!

This is on Bloomberg 2 weeks ago retards!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 3:57 PM

As a side light, this from FDIC's failed bank list for Friday April 17:Great Basin Bank of Nevada, Elko, NV

American Sterling Bank, Sugar Creek, MO

New Frontier Bank, Greeley, CO

Cape Fear Bank, Wilmington, NC

Omni National Bank, Atlanta, GA

TeamBank, National Association, Paola, KS

Colorado National Bank, Colorado Springs, CO

FirstCity Bank, Stockbridge, GA

Freedom Bank of Georgia, Commerce, GA

Security Savings Bank, Henderson, NV

Heritage Community Bank, Glenwood, IL

Silver Falls Bank, Silverton, OR

Pinnacle Bank of Oregon, Beaverton, OR

Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company, Pittsfield, IL

Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, Cape Coral, FL

Sherman County Bank, Loup City, NE

County Bank, Merced, CA

Alliance Bank, Culver City, CA

FirstBank Financial Services, McDonough, GA

Ocala National Bank, Ocala, FL

Suburban Federal Savings Bank, Crofton, MD

MagnetBank, Salt Lake City, UT

1st Centennial Bank, Redlands, CA

Bank of Clark County, Vancouver, WA

National Bank of Commerce, Berkeley, IL

Sanderson State Bank, Sanderson, TX
En Español

Haven Trust Bank, Duluth, GA

First Georgia Community Bank, Jackson, GA

PFF Bank and Trust, Pomona, CA

Downey Savings and Loan, Newport Beach, CA

The Community Bank, Loganville, GA

Security Pacific Bank, Los Angeles, CA

Franklin Bank, SSB, Houston, TX

Freedom Bank, Bradenton, FL

Alpha Bank & Trust, Alpharetta, GA

Meridian Bank, Eldred, IL

Main Street Bank, Northville, MI

Washington Mutual Bank, Henderson, NV and Washington Mutual Bank FSB, Park City, UT

Ameribank, Northfork, WV

Silver State Bank, Henderson, NV
En Español

Integrity Bank, Alpharetta, GA

The Columbian Bank and Trust, Topeka, KS

First Priority Bank, Bradenton, FL

First Heritage Bank, NA, Newport Beach, CA

First National Bank of Nevada, Reno, NV

IndyMac Bank, Pasadena, CA

First Integrity Bank, NA, Staples, MN

ANB Financial, NA, Bentonville, AR

Hume Bank, Hume, MO

Douglass National Bank, Kansas City, MO

Miami Valley Bank, Lakeview, OH

NetBank, Alpharetta, GA

Metropolitan Savings Bank, Pittsburgh, PA

Bank of Ephraim, Ephraim, UT

Reliance Bank, White Plains, NY

If you were to believe the Happy Horseshit News, "good times are just around the corner"

Doubt it.

Posted by: bridges at April 20, 2009 4:00 PM

BHO, what is your current situation? Are you a renter who is actually looking to buy or are you just a poo flinger? Most of the people I engage on this site have been pretty open about whether they are owners vs. renters, where they live, whether they are currently in the market, etc (DIBS, wasder, muffett, gemini, just to name a few of many who are very open about their situations).

Posted by: lechacal at April 20, 2009 4:00 PM

bridges....Maybe they all are but they don't amount to squat as far as the big banks.

Get a perspective before you start running off at the mouth

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 4:03 PM

"BHO, what is your current situation? Are you a renter who is actually looking to buy or are you just a poo flinger? Most of the people I engage on this site have been pretty open about whether they are owners vs. renters, where they live, whether they are currently in the market, etc (DIBS, wasder, muffett, gemini, just to name a few of many who are very open about their situations)."

BHO Please I have the AK-47 right in my hands! Hey Retard the bright light you see is the explosion of the Mutant Asset Bubble! Where is your friends at now (Team Retard) at now??

Look at this story: Leaving the Nest (Again)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/realestate/19hunt.html?_r=1

Mr. Ellis bought his apartment — the Addison Hall studio that he liked — for the asking price, $299,000. (It was originally listed last spring for $359,000.) Monthly maintenance is $642. The board interview was informal, with one person meeting him at the Holiday Inn across the street.

With the market softening, “sellers couldn’t ask for the moon,” Mr. Ellis said. “That really worked in my favor. We had genius, genius, genius timing.”

This guy brought something in MIDTOWN!!!!!!! This guy made out like a bandit and the sad thing is while you mofo's are running for your lives in the Ghetto, Homeboy is sitting pretty.

How many people are moving back to Manhattan because the "Ghetto Experiment" did not work out??? Tons of them!!! Hey lechacal teabag my nutsack!

The What (Is The What gonna kick some retards ass today?)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 4:14 PM

I will eventually make a lot of money in the ghetto.

Skittles for everyone.....

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 4:21 PM

There's no "maybe" about it, as you can see from FDIC's own info. We built an economy built on debt, that is now collapsing--the real difference between that list and the big banks is that government is propping them (the big banks) up, no? But it's all the same falling domino pattern of fractional banking debt collapse .

Posted by: bridges at April 20, 2009 4:22 PM

Where are all the retards????!!! Team Retard where are you???? Yo Assheads.....

Wow that's something! Just Dave??? Hello...... Yoo Hoo....

You know something (Team Bear) this is very funny and very sad at the same time.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 4:26 PM

Everyone should experience living in Manhattan once in their life. he'll be back in brooklyn during the next bubble. I'll sell him my ghetto house in 10 years for $2MM.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 20, 2009 4:29 PM

> "http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/realestate/19hunt.html?_r=1"

Nice cat.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at April 20, 2009 4:37 PM

******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets******* ******Crickets*******

The What (It's Wabbat season...)

Sssshhhhh Someday this war is gonna end.....

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 5:13 PM

@ basementalist:

Kunstler dislikes what the newer suburbs and exurbs have done to the American landscape.
He loves cities and has never predicted their death, but says that the biggest cities inevitably will shrink to some degree in the absence now of a phony-money economy.

Kunstler warned about the credit-caused economic collapse at least several years ago, before Nouriel Roubini and others, I believe.

The fact that he doesn't like the look or the social fabric of far-out suburbs has nothing to do with his analysis of why they are economically insupportable. As he notes, the suburban build-out was entirely dependent on borrowed wealth. That's a fact.

One gets further by assaying his arguments and evidence, I think, than by making an ad hominem attack on his aesthetic and social preferences.

Posted by: zuleika at April 20, 2009 5:14 PM

What / BHO - the accounting change in 157-e just released is not mark to myth. In actuality if you read the new disclosure which no doubt you haven't, you'd understand that the FASB board backed down from the original recomendation to mark assets to distressed levels unless proven otherwise. You know why they didn't change it ? becuase the broker dealer community pushed back on it.

What basis do you have for Citi having 1 trillion of level 3 ? Once again - that's not correct. That's over half their balance sheet. Check your facts.

Posted by: 10thStreetReno at April 20, 2009 5:58 PM

******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******
******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******
******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******
******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******
******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******
******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******
******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******
******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******
******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******
******Cats******* ******Cats******* ******Cats*******

Posted by: SnarkSlope at April 20, 2009 6:03 PM

Dave, it has been my experience that the market freezes when interest rates go up, as happened in July '08. It thawed out a bit in September (when the weather improved).

Prices will drop when interest rates rise, but the monthly cost for those borrowing will be much higher. As was the case for years and years.

Posted by: mopar at April 20, 2009 6:23 PM

They can't raise interest rates, is the thing. I think. If they do it'll all collapse, and yet if they don't, at best, we get inflation. I think we NEED inflation, honestly. But I don't think it's gonna be pretty.

(Nor do I think it's going to be post-apocalyptic... but really not pretty.)

Can you get inflation and deflation at the same time? Cause I think that would be extremely bad.

Re: Kunstler, I agree with him about the suburbs, I've always hated suburbs, but why oh why does he also have to insert the whole locovore movement into it? You know what would really kill the economy? Buying local.

Posted by: Heather at April 20, 2009 6:50 PM

"They can't raise interest rates, is the thing. I think. If they do it'll all collapse, and yet if they don't, at best, we get inflation. I think we NEED inflation, honestly. But I don't think it's gonna be pretty."

Note: Put Heather on Retard list!

Interest Rates are controlled by the Bind Market, not by the Federal Reserve!

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

The Federal Reserve follows the 13 week Treasury Bond for overnight lending rates.

Yahoo IRX

http://tinyurl.com/cpvz25

Keep you eye peeled right here folks! This is the area of the subatomic flash! The Mutant Asset Bubble will start it's collapse right here!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end....

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 7:22 PM

What, I'm not so sure you should be so quick to call me a retard, considering I often agree with you -- albeit not in quite as dramatic a way and with less actual evidence.

Fed sets the rates, decides when to raise or lower them, issues treasury bonds (benchmark for all others) into the economy as needed. This affects the bond market, as bonds prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. What am I missing?

Posted by: Heather at April 20, 2009 8:21 PM

"Fed sets the rates, decides when to raise or lower them, issues treasury bonds (benchmark for all others) into the economy as needed. "

The other way around Heather, the other way around.

This affects the bond market, as bonds prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. What am I missing?

Interest Rates are controlled by the Bind Market, not by the Federal Reserve!

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

The Federal Reserve follows the 13 week Treasury Bond for overnight lending rates.

Yahoo IRX

http://tinyurl.com/cpvz25

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 20, 2009 8:42 PM

@zuleika:

Depends how you define "predicting the death" of cities, but if you read The Long Emergency, e.g., he is essentially predicting the return of a semi-agrarian lifestyle. I don't think it's an ad hominem attack to note that he has cited a number of crises, real or otherwise (as with Y2K--http://www.kunstler.com/mags_y2kassess.html), to substantiate a change in lifestyle that he has advocated for decades. It's relevant to considering the source: he may be right this time, but he has a history of gathering evidence to reach his preferred conclusion. And again, he's not the only one--Richard Florida thinks that the economic crisis will reshape the country the way *he* wants it to be, etc.

Posted by: basementalist at April 20, 2009 9:03 PM

@basement:

Being wrong about one thing doesn't mean one is wrong about other things. In any case, Y2K problems were averted by preventive actions that were taken in part because of the alarms raised by Kunstler and others. And peak fossil-fuel energy and attendant economic and social instability is a fact of our times, as former Energy Secretary James Schlesinger and other non-controversialists have warned.

Energy prices are low for now, but China and India's growing demand combined with depleting oil fields and absence of sufficient other economically viable sources of oil mean that at some point, the s*** will hit the fan and oil prices will climb.

The moment at which this begins to affect daily life, in particular the food supply (American industrial agriculture is dependent on fossil-fuel inputs, for fertilizer and transport to market over thousands of miles) -- whether it's this year, or next year, or five years from now, I don't expect any pundit to be able to predict precisely -- only that it will happen sooner rather than later. Kunstler and others have been the few observers who weren't drunk/asleep at the wheel in seeing this and the fak-wealth crisis coming down the pike.

@Heather, buying and selling locally made products and home grown food is what makes local economies exist. Do you think the rest of the world is going to keep sending us cheap goods on our worthless promises of payment? Obviously no one is going to stop buying coffee from Guatemala as long as we can get it. It would be nice if we could keep getting most of our food trucked in from thousands of miles away, but it may not be economically supportable, in which case I am sure everyone will prefer "locovorism" to hunger!

Posted by: zuleika at April 20, 2009 11:40 PM

"BHO, what is your current situation? Are you a renter who is actually looking to buy or are you just a poo flinger?"

Both, lechacal. When people fling poo at me, I bust back. Long time renter waiting for Case-Shiller YOY to turn green. Almost had to overpay as a compromise with Mrs. BHO but now that the rental market is in freefall and we have articles like the one above, she's on board with me. Market: Fort Greene/Clinton Hill.

"What / BHO - the accounting change in 157-e just released is not mark to myth. In actuality if you read the new disclosure which no doubt you haven't, you'd understand that the FASB board backed down from the original recomendation to mark assets to distressed levels unless proven otherwise. You know why they didn't change it ? becuase the broker dealer community pushed back on it."

Please post the disclosure. It's all smoke and mirrors to hide losses. Discretion = creativity = fraud.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 21, 2009 12:25 AM

"Prices will drop when interest rates rise, but the monthly cost for those borrowing will be much higher. As was the case for years and years."

Nope. Higher interest rates force prices to drop by a proportional amount to result in the same monthly payment per home. The only thing difference is that the buyer starts out with even more equity than before because the % down increases even if its absolute value stays constant. Even more money down on an even more cheaper house.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 21, 2009 12:39 AM

Zuleika, locavism is, how shall I put this, an illusion. Do you buy local cotton? Local olive oil? Local citrus? Do you realize that most of your small shops buy their goods from the same distributors used by larger chains? Even assuming you're right, don't you think there's a certain danger in circling the wagons and sealing the borders, so to speak? Do you really want to just put an end to the global economy? What if it meant people in other places would starve? Would that not bother you or would you just consider them socially irresponsible?

This isn't something I've studied at length, as you obviously have, so maybe there are solutions that I'm not aware of... but I think promoting a closed economy makes about as much sense as, say, North Korea.

Posted by: Heather at April 21, 2009 12:44 AM

Hello Heather, I walked by Fish and Crustaceans a few hours ago. Yes there is a letter stating the Landlord has possession but only a judge can give back possession thru Due Process. Let's see what happens, OK.

BHO you shoot at night?? LMMFAO! Today was mad fun! One question- where are the retards at?????? I had plenty of Ammo....

The What (Takes his ass to sleep)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 21, 2009 2:05 AM

Thanks for the info BHO. Sounds like we are in the same position (although I think your rhetoric tends to be much more strongly worded than mine).

What, I know it annoys you that I don't pay any attention to you, which is probably why I don't. Your online personality has kind of jumped the shark. It worked for a while, even got kind of endearing/amusing, but now my eyes just skip over your posts.

Posted by: lechacal at April 21, 2009 7:48 AM

"Even assuming you're right, don't you think there's a certain danger in circling the wagons and sealing the borders, so to speak? Do you really want to just put an end to the global economy? What if it meant people in other places would starve?"

Sorry, I can't allow this one to pass...We're in the midst of a world historical global meltdown...The global economy (or more correctly GLOBALIZED DEBT ECONOMY) is one of the reasons we're in this mess

Posted by: bridges at April 21, 2009 9:21 AM

"BHO you shoot at night??"

The tracers look real pretty.

"I think your rhetoric tends to be much more strongly worded than mine"

Ahhhh, it's more my login name and tagline that invites poo and thus return fire, lechacal. And now it's "the new obscenity".

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 21, 2009 11:14 AM

Debt is liquidity. Take it away and nothing gets made. Nothing gets made? Prices go up. People suffer. More than they are now.

Posted by: Heather at April 21, 2009 5:02 PM

@Heather (if you're still reading Monday's thread):

Nobody's "circling the wagons" or talking about sealing the borders or having a closed economy. We all want to be able to continue to live well, and it would be not at all pleasant to exist without oranges or olive oil or coffee.

The point is that we may not have a choice at some point -- oranges and olive oil may become such expensive luxuries again that we'll have them much less often.

In the meantime, supporting local agriculture is not an either-or proposition. Buying locally grown foods doesn't rule out continuing also to buy foods that cannot be grown locally -- for as long as they're available.

For the people who live in far-off places that export foods to us, again, this is not about anyone *choosing* to opt out the "global economy." It's about distributors and importers finding it too expensive to continue -- or being forced to mark up prices to a point at which people with average incomes in the U.S. won't be able to afford them every week.

Posted by: zuleika at April 22, 2009 12:58 AM

« Weekday Events Open Thread »

April 20, 2009

Real Estate: The New Obscenity?

Trackback Pings

Comments

Post a comment

Latest Restaurant Additions