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April 1, 2009
Case-Shiller Continues to Tank
Housing prices in the country's 20 largest cities fell 19 percent between January 2008 and January 2009, according to the Case-Shiller index; New York City fell almost 10 percent in this same period. “There’s no daylight that I can see in this report,” said David Blitzer, chairman of S.& P.’s index committee. “It is unlikely that we are anywhere near a bottom in nationwide home prices,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist for MFR Inc. The only ray of light: In a few cities like Charlotte, Minneapolis, and New York, the rate of decline in January was slightly lower than the rate of decline in December.
Record Drop in Index of Home Prices [NY Times]
Graph from Seeking Alpha
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Comments
Cool graphic. New York's arc looks quite reasonable compared to some other cities.
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 9:42 AM
According to arc I'm about even from when I brought in 1st QTR 05. Quite a fall since July 08 when a mirror apt upstairs with lower ceilings, less sunlight and no outdoor space went for 28% above mine. Good thing I'm enjoying my tax break and fireplaces!
Posted by: DeLepp at April 1, 2009 9:51 AM
The graphic shown above is somewhat short sighted. For a better view of what the trend is, and some alternative case schiller data, take a look here:
http://www.lateralthinking.biz/the-case-schiller-index.html
Important things to note are:
*Ratio of house prices to rent
*median family price divided by median family income.
The important thing to notice in these two numbers are how consistent are correctable these values are until late 99/2000.
This gives a better perspective.
Posted by: xander at April 1, 2009 9:58 AM
you guys know the caveats, right? condos not included, and survey is over the whole NY metro area... so folks will go on all day about certain kinds of large buildings made of brown stone being immune, or totally unhinged from this, or not...
supposedly there is a separate survey by the same people just for condos. I'm gonna go looking for it.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 1, 2009 10:01 AM
"I was dreamin' when I wrote this
Forgive me if it goes astray
But when I woke up this mornin'
Coulda sworn it was judgment day
The sky was all purple
There were people runnin' everywhere
Tryin' 2 run from the destruction
U know I didn't even care
'Cuz they say two thousand zero zero party over
Oops out of time
So tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999..."
Posted by: travy at April 1, 2009 10:02 AM
"New York, the rate of decline in January was slightly lower than the rate of decline in December."
Not true for New York.
202.08 (Dec 07) >>> 183.57 (Dec 08) >>> YOY = -9.16%
200.44 (Jan 08) >>> 181.28 (Jan 09) >>> YOY = -9.56%
YOY is the rate of decline that matters and as you see above it was slightly higher, not lower, between the two months.
"New York's arc looks quite reasonable compared to some other cities."
WAMU's arc looked quite reasonable compared to Lehman's at one time. Differential collapse. The individual indices for all ten cities won't tank in lockstep. They will lag each other. The Ponzi/Madoff boomerang thrown from Wall St to Main St is on its way back.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 1, 2009 10:03 AM
"Cool graphic. New York's arc looks quite reasonable compared to some other cities."
Hey Dumbass look up! The Shockwave coming your way!
The What (Taste the rainbow)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 10:04 AM
"you guys know the caveats, right? condos not included, and survey is over the whole NY metro area... so folks will go on all day about certain kinds of large buildings made of brown stone being immune, or totally unhinged from this, or not..."
Index up 200% from the 90's. Condos, co-ops and multi-fam brownstones all up 200% from the 90's. Relevant on the way up, relevant on the way down. Type of property on affects intrinsic value, not the excess fat. Prices for all property types are on Jenny Craig.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 1, 2009 10:09 AM
Fellas--I didn't say we weren't in for a world of hurt I just said the actual arc of NYC in this graphic looks downright reasonable compared to Miami or Phoenix.
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 10:10 AM
I agree wholeheartedly with BHO.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at April 1, 2009 10:11 AM
Hey dumbasses...
If you can afford a place go out and buy one. Interest rates will go up someday and then you'll all be SOL.
The real Asshats will be renting forever.
You can buy more skittles when you retire after your mortgage is paid off. You can't when your rent goes up every year.
Someday people will realize its better to rent than to own...
I am the anti-What
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 10:12 AM
"Fellas--I didn't say we weren't in for a world of hurt I just said the actual arc of NYC in this graphic looks downright reasonable compared to Miami or Phoenix."
Look both ways before crossing the street.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at April 1, 2009 10:15 AM
I agree wholeheartedly with BHO.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at April 1, 2009 10:11 AM
ROTFLMMFAO!!!!!!!
"Type of property on affects intrinsic value, not the excess fat. Prices for all property types are on Jenny Craig."
More like Chris Rock in New Jack City!
"I am the anti-What"
When you thought the Retards was finished...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 10:16 AM
I agree with BHO too. It's so F'd. It's actually a lot more F'd than I even want it to be, and I'm on team bear. I work in a bank -- the outlook is for personal gain in this business is SO bad that people are just giving up and planning lives away from the city. There's going to be a lot of pain in the city and I'm starting to actually feel bad about it instead of rooting for a bargain on a condo.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 1, 2009 10:21 AM
Joe-at least you have a human heart beating in your chest unlike some people...
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 10:24 AM
"Joe-at least you have a human heart beating in your chest unlike some people..."
Whoa Homeboy! When the the retards was going nuts in '05 no one stop them. At that time we knew it was going to blow up in our faces! No one said "please stop the insanity" and now its all over. Cry me a river!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 10:28 AM
metaphase...when they start rising due to inflation then, historically, that is good for home prices.
Also, when interest rates start to rise, after being considered low for awhile (as they are now), people tend to rush to buy things fearing that rates will continue to rise even further and they'll miss the boat.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 10:29 AM
I hear Joe. This is a very nervous-making time. I'm just glad we have Obama and hopefully Bloomberg in charge, and I hope whoever is our next NYS governor knows what they are doing. One thing I hope people keep in mind is that we are all in this together - during the boom, many people were left out while others profited, and now in the bust, many will suffer while some will benefit (at least in part) from lower prices. But what we should all be thinking of is our common purpose to keep our communities strong - this means being a good civic member of your community. For me, this means being extra active in my kids' public school, volunteering at local organizations, and just plain being respectful and nice to people. As we undergo a period of real stress for many people, we can at least be mindful of the humans behind this and instead of all the class warfare, try to work together to pitch in given the stress on our public services.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at April 1, 2009 10:33 AM
If I expect prices to fall considerably (and I do), why would I want to buy now?
Say you take a property that was $800,000 at the peak and it's now fallen 10% to $720,000. If I wait until it falls to 40% off peak price, even if mortgage interest rates go from 6% to 10%, my monthly payment would be slightly lower and my interest deduction higher if I wait.(Forty percent drop is a big assumption, but since that's what Manhattan real estate fell in early 90s, I think we'll at least match that.)
Posted by: greenwood at April 1, 2009 10:37 AM
Miss Muffett--very well said. You as always are a voice of reason in this debate, where the human element is often lost to the haggling over property values. Thanks for that.
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 10:39 AM
"Forty percent drop is a big assumption, but since that's what Manhattan real estate fell in early 90s, I think we'll at least match that.)"
This is city-wide and not Manhattan, but it clearly says 29.3%....not 40%. Big difference.
***
"Citywide, real estate prices declined 12.4% between 1974 and 1980, then jumped 152% between 1980 and 1989. They fell 29.3% from 1989 to 1996 and increased 124.2% from 1996 to 2006. Overall, prices skyrocketed 250% from 1974 to 2006, when they began to level off across the city as the latest real estate boom ended.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090311/FREE/903119970
Posted by: 11217 at April 1, 2009 10:42 AM
"Miss Muffett--very well said. You as always are a voice of reason in this debate, where the human element is often lost to the haggling over property values. Thanks for that."
Yes Miss Muffett.. Hold me... I'm scared...... please......
The What (Taste the rainbow)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 10:42 AM
greenwood--I think you are right that anyone saying this is the time to buy is way premature. I do think, however that just as prices didn't rise so precipitously in NYC compared to other markets they won't fall quite so precipitously percentage-wise. Time wise, one would think the time to buy would be summer '10 or so.
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 10:43 AM
What -- I'm not talking about homeowners losing money -- they'll all be fine in the big picture. I'm talking about some 12 year old kid whose after-school program gets cut, who gets jammed in a classroom full of 35 kids, etc...
when you think about the impact on general welfare from the kind of local recession that can really change home prices, the picture is pretty dark for a lot of people who have nothing to do with brownstones.
of course none of that changes my basic need to just be right. Brownstones will be half off peak, just like BHO says. And dave-o, interest rates will be held down by the fed until we are well out of the woods in this recession, which will be years from now.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 1, 2009 10:44 AM
"Yes Miss Muffett.. Hold me... I'm scared...... please......"
That's funny What. I don't feel too scared right now. My neighbors and I get along great and the block is quiet and peaceful. What I am concerned about more is that the recession will do such a doozy on my clients that I will have to figure out a new line of work. But that's a different story.
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 10:47 AM
So much misinformation, so little time.
Posted by: 11217 at April 1, 2009 10:48 AM
"And dave-o, interest rates will be held down by the fed until we are well out of the woods in this recession, which will be years from now."
The fed controls short term rates, typically not the ones that drive mortgage rates. rates are now being driven on the 5 year and longer end by the marlket's desire to buy or sell treasuries given their appetitie for more or less risk in the equities market.
What's your guess on how many years?? And why???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 10:50 AM
Miss Muffet - very well said!
I do think that home prices will contiune to come down at least another 10% and condos down another 20% but I do beleive that the fed will keep mortgage rates at low levels and we will not see them rise above 6% for at least 2 years. I think once companies have leveled off their layoffs, people will feel confident to go and buy those houses that have come down considerably and hopefully the overall housing market will benefit from that - just my 2 cents
Posted by: gemini10 at April 1, 2009 10:51 AM
for what it's worth, I got mugged at gunpoint last month on garfield and 7th. no joke. I mentioned it in another post. I don't mean it as support for an armageddon hypothesis (obviously it's just one isolated incident), but it happened, so I figured I'd let people know to keep an eye out.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 1, 2009 10:51 AM
Wow Joe, sorry to hear that. Garfield and 7th...trying to picture that corner. What time of day or night was it?
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 10:56 AM
dave -- fed is now buying long term notes back to control long term rates (I have to shamelessly point out that I predicted that in a comment here). I think the consensus among economists is that we're a long way from a recovery, meaning at least a year, and that it can't happen without a housing recovery -- and we all can see how that is going in this chart.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 1, 2009 10:57 AM
Crime is down Joe. Check latest stats.
And why even argue with What about how all these affects people in real life. The dude is a theorycraft warrior living in a basement. He trolls all of you like there is no tomorrow. A simple link to some daily, some stupid remark, personal attacks - whala! 50 replies.
Posted by: crimsonson at April 1, 2009 10:57 AM
Joe,
REALLY sorry to hear that. Not fun at all, but glad you're ok. Did you report it? I didn't see anything like this in the PS crime blotter...
Just to throw some facts into this, armageddon doesn't seem on the horizon...at least not this year...
**
New York City homicides drop 23%
BY Alison Gendar
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER
Tuesday, March 31st 2009, 4:00 AM
Murders fell 23% and overall crime dropped 13% for the first three months of the year, despite a tanking economy and fewer cops on the street.
Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly is expected to detail the stunning reduction in crime as he outlines the impact of recent budget cuts at a City Council hearing today.
The city saw 89 murders in the first quarter of the year, well below the 116 homicides this time last year, and below the 118 murders in 1962, the first year similar stats were kept, officials said.
Overall crime was down 13% through March 29 compared with the same time last year. The drop came despite budget cuts that reduced the number of cops on the street.
Posted by: 11217 at April 1, 2009 10:59 AM
12:30am on a thursday night wasd -- thanks for your concern -- we were fine (wife and I). it was right in front of the south end of polhemus, the little street that runs between carrol and garfield. basically in front of the pink house, but on the other side. I thought about writing the whole story for a forum but I don't know if it's that interesting. cops actually caught one of the guys.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 1, 2009 11:02 AM
Joe! - am sorry that's really scary
Garfield and 7th seems so safe to me
what time of the day was it?
Posted by: gemini10 at April 1, 2009 11:02 AM
Joe - sorry to hear about mugging. I certainly hope crime does not get worse in this climate. I have a lot of faith in our police commissioner (things are so much better now than the Guiliani years on that front) but I think communities really matter. As for schools, believe me, I am very concerned about public school budget cuts - in terms of city services, this is the one closest to my heart and life as I have young children in public school. So while a steep decline in RE values will in some ways help me personally (at last we can buy our home with, hopefully, some cash to spare to put towards retirement/college), it also means fewer tax receipts for our municipal gov't. This is why I'm not totally gleeful about what's happening, even as I fully expect big price drops. One thing I like so much about Obama is his emphasis on looking beyond our short-term and narrow interests. Yes, I stand to gain if I can buy a cheap house. But what does it mean for my community which in turn does really affect me? I am dismayed by all the vitriol that gets flung around here, sometimes in bravado fashion, and hope these hard times can really inspire a bit more humility and community-minded thinking.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at April 1, 2009 11:03 AM
11217--timely link. Thanks for that.
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 11:04 AM
holy crap! Detroit fell off the chart.
Posted by: nyurb at April 1, 2009 11:04 AM
Joe - I would like to hear that story - am really sorta surprised that someone with a gun was lurking over there
Posted by: gemini10 at April 1, 2009 11:04 AM
Joe...sorry to hear that. My colleague and I were just chatting about a sushi restaurant right there. It's normally a pretty safe area.
As far as the Fed buying those longer Treasuries, the market has pretty much fully discounted all of that. There's only been a relatively insignificant downward move in thoise rates from a month ago when they announced and since they've done two purchases.
I've beenn waiting and waiting and waiting for 4.5% to do a refi but everytime it looks to be close rates move nack up.
The massive selling of treasureis will come when people feel its time to put more money into the equities market.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 11:05 AM
Miss muffett keeps yapping that NYC went up 300% she clearly has no clue.
Posted by: sebb at April 1, 2009 11:06 AM
Yeah, poor detroit, not even on the chart...
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 11:07 AM
sebb...units in my building on the UES went up over 300% from when I bought in 1997.
I'm sure Bed Stuy brownstones were up much more than 300% from back then.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 11:10 AM
"The fed controls short term rates, typically not the ones that drive mortgage rates. rates are now being driven on the 5 year and longer end by the marlket's desire to buy or sell treasuries given their appetitie for more or less risk in the equities market."
Dave I would like to Thank you for proving you have no clue about anything! The FED follows the IRX (13 Week Treasury).
Dave before you reply pull up the IRX and The FED overnight rates and compare them. Dumbass!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 11:10 AM
"Crime is down Joe. Check latest stats"
That's priceless, dude. I meant to make that point to the guy with the LOADED GUN IN MY FACE, but somehow I forgot. Don't ever work in a victim's support group. Anyway, I agree, there is no crime wave going on, and one piece of good news is that it was the only armed robery in the 78th precinct that month. OK, so I'll write the story for the forum. cool.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 1, 2009 11:12 AM
"Crime is down Joe. Check latest stats."
A guy gets a gun shoved in his face and you have to nerve to type this crap!
Joe I'm glad you are OK (Seriously)
"And why even argue with What about how all these affects people in real life "
Yeah Asshead why? Stick your head back in the hole.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 11:16 AM
I heard you can buy foreclosed homes in Detroit for $500
no joke! - apparently there are a bunch of artists going out there and buying these homes, restoring them and setting up roots out there to foster this new artist community....
Posted by: gemini10 at April 1, 2009 11:16 AM
Can someone explain why they do these stats year on year, instead of month on month.
It seems like it would be much more valuable to say that prices declined in January at an annual rate of whatever from the month before.
That's how they do inflation.
Btw, sorry to get back to the actual topic at hand and distract everyone from arguing over crime and joe's tale of woe and whatever other random stuff some people seem to always want to bore us with.
Posted by: ontheparkway at April 1, 2009 11:19 AM
"Crime is down Joe. Check latest stats"
Joe let me say this- This goes to show you how clueless some people are! The denial and delusion on Brownstoner is disgusting. To the Retard crimsonson I hope you find yourself in that situation!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 11:20 AM
It's called living in a city, What. Clearly something you chose to escape from because you couldn't hack it anymore.
Most people I know have been the victim of a crime at some point in their NYC lives.
I was robbed at gunpoint 6 years ago on Riverside Drive and 86th Street on the UWS. Big woop.
Next.
Posted by: 11217 at April 1, 2009 11:23 AM
What....Obviously you don't know the difference between long and short Treasuries. 13 Week T Bills do not drive mortgage rates.
Who's the Dumbass now????
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 11:25 AM
"Yes, I stand to gain if I can buy a cheap house. But what does it mean for my community which in turn does really affect me? I am dismayed by all the vitriol that gets flung around here, sometimes in bravado fashion, and hope these hard times can really inspire a bit more humility and community-minded thinking."
Manischevitz Muffett!! You are on fire today. I can't thank you enough for this post as it puts into perspective so many negative aspects of the tedious and destructive price debate. As opposed to the self-described "bottom feeders" on this board you understand that quality of life has many factors and the cheapest possible house may be a pyrrhic victory if the neighborhood in which you buy experiences a decline in living standards. Bottom feeders, how do you respond?
Posted by: wasder at April 1, 2009 11:25 AM
Thanks, What!
parkway, they do year on year to eliminate the seasonality, same as they do for stuff like retail sales. otherwise people would freak out every winter for no reason.
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 1, 2009 11:27 AM
"What....Obviously you don't know the difference between long and short Treasuries. 13 Week T Bills do not drive mortgage rates."
Red Herring tastes great on my plate but not here Dumbass! I know your Cognitive Skills are impaired by the Baseball Bat you took as a teenager. Read my post again Retard!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 11:31 AM
"It's called living in a city, What. Clearly something you chose to escape from because you couldn't hack it anymore"
ROTFLMMFAO Take you Bitch-Ass back to Ohio and take the rest of the freeloaders with you. You F**** Poser!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 11:33 AM
DUMBASS RETARD. LEARN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 13 WEEK AND 5 YEAR.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 11:40 AM
"DUMBASS RETARD. LEARN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 13 WEEK AND 5 YEAR."
Buy a new keyboard your caps are stuck. Oh and while you are at it re-read my post..
The What (Taste the rainbow)
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 11:43 AM
"A guy gets a gun shoved in his face and you have to nerve to type this crap!"
OH F@CKING PLZZZZ.
Did you buy that High Horse this morning? You are one pathetic hypocrite. For years you talk and attack people while thousands lose their home and you have the fucking nerve? LOLOL. Oh I get it, homelessness, poverty and bankruptcy is less tragic and traumatic.
Silly troll.
Get over it dude. And your superficial attempt to 'have a heart' is just so obvious.
And yes I already have been in that situation - twice. Does not make my comment any less heartless but please spare me the high horse crap especially from your pseudo Paule Revere persona.
Posted by: crimsonson at April 1, 2009 11:44 AM
ohio is a shithole of crime and bad chili.
you'll get stabbed in Akron.
Posted by: Santa at April 1, 2009 11:46 AM
11217:
In actual dollars decrease was 30%. It was nearly 40% including inflation adjustment.
Posted by: greenwood at April 1, 2009 11:48 AM
I'm glad to see the economic debate is carrying on with its usual civility and sense of decorum.
Posted by: lechacal at April 1, 2009 11:50 AM
Yeah, so???? The 13 week rate is 0.21 % and the IRX is 0.21 X 10 = 2.10. NEITHER ONE HAS MUCH TO DO WITH MORTGAGES.
WHAT'S YOUR POINT??????????
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 11:53 AM
Yeah, so???? The 13 week rate is 0.21 % and the IRX is 0.21 X 10 = 2.10. NEITHER ONE HAS MUCH TO DO WITH MORTGAGES.
WHAT'S YOUR POINT??????????
Buy a new keyboard (again) your caps are stuck. Oh and while you are at it Re- Re-read my post..
The What (You almost there stupid)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 11:56 AM
Reread MY post. I was talking about mortgage rates. Your IRX reference has nothing to do with that.
Why am I arguing with this loon today???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 11:58 AM
"A guy gets a gun shoved in his face and you have to nerve to type this crap!"
Oh please. You are a hypocrite. What makes Joe special that he gets an e-knight? Oh that is right, he is not a statistic compared to the thousands of 'asshats', 'retards' - not to mention those that became jobless because of this crash.
LOL on that high horse.
Posted by: crimsonson at April 1, 2009 11:59 AM
"Oh please. You are a hypocrite. What makes Joe special that he gets an e-knight? Oh that is right, he is not a statistic compared to the thousands of 'asshats', 'retards' - not to mention those that became jobless because of this crash."
I guess you never had a gun shoved in your face or been shot at! Guess what punk I have and it's not something I wish on anyone, including the Asshats! I talk about crime going up but I don't wish any harm on no one (except Dave).
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 12:04 PM
"Reread MY post. I was talking about mortgage rates. Your IRX reference has nothing to do with that."
Oh yes it does Dave! Read on!
"The fed controls short term rates, typically not the ones that drive mortgage rates. rates are now being driven on the 5 year and longer end by the marlket's desire to buy or sell treasuries given their appetitie for more or less risk in the equities market."
Then...
"Yeah, so???? The 13 week rate is 0.21 % and the IRX is 0.21 X 10 = 2.10. NEITHER ONE HAS MUCH TO DO WITH MORTGAGES.
WHAT'S YOUR POINT??????????"
You just made my argument! Dave=PWNED HIMSELF
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 12:07 PM
You really have no idea what you are talking about do you???
Its sad when you PWN yourself with the lack of understanding of basic things like the difference between 13 weeks and 5 & 10 Years.
It also points to why you will not make any money coming out of this and probably didn't make any money correctly predicting the downturn. Sad really.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 12:10 PM
"It also points to why you will not make any money coming out of this and probably didn't make any money correctly predicting the downturn. Sad really."
Yeah you move form Manhattan to buy a house in the middle of the Ghetto and your employer is a Hedge Fund. Boy O Boy that's smart planing Dave! Way to go, YEAH!!!!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end....
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 12:15 PM
I don't think the long time residents along Stuyvesant Ave would appreciate you calling it the ghetto. Probably more upscale and civil, than anyplace you ever lived. A bit racist, ya think????
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 12:17 PM
gosh, didn't we have such a great topic last week about ways to make the commenting system better?
Nice to see that we're really trying to be civil. Boy wish we had an ignore button right about now.
Posted by: xander at April 1, 2009 12:17 PM
"I guess you never had a gun shoved in your face"
Uhm - twice. So wait... you mind people getting mug at gun point but don't mind berrating people who are about to go homeless, bankruptcy, joblessness and poverty.
Typical theory craft e-warrior.
Posted by: crimsonson at April 1, 2009 12:19 PM
"I don't think the long time residents along Stuyvesant Ave would appreciate you calling it the ghetto."
You are not one of them!
"Probably more upscale and civil, than anyplace you ever lived. "
Oh now it's "upscale and civil"? I wonder what it was before Dave?
"A bit racist, ya think????"
Yeah!
"berrating people who are about to go homeless, bankruptcy, joblessness and poverty."
If in 2005 you understood the dynamics of the Mutant Asset Bubble to day you will be fine but alot of those people got caught up in the hype! Oh well...
The What (Weeeeeeeeeeee)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 12:24 PM
OK
Full story on the Forum -- thanks for your interest....
Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 1, 2009 1:16 PM
Oh boy. We're giving trillions to bankers who are cashing out with severance and bonuses that could buy 20 Brooklyn brownstoners per year per person. The people who bought with subprime mortgages and all the rest of us are the ones left holding the bag.
Interest rates probably will start to jack up soon, unemployment will grow, and housing prices and the cost of everything else will start to rise.
Posted by: mopar at April 1, 2009 1:27 PM
"Probably more upscale and civil, than anyplace you ever lived. "
Oh now it's "upscale and civil"? I wonder what it was before Dave?
"A bit racist, ya think????"
You really need a class in reading comprehension, What.
Stating that its more upscale and civil than wherever you lived is not the same thing as saying its only now upscale and civil since I moved there.
YOU REALLY HAVE A PROBLEM TODAY READING DON'T YOU/
Too many skittles i think
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 1:35 PM
"Stating that its more upscale and civil than wherever you lived is not the same thing as saying its only now upscale and civil since I moved there."
Oh yeah Dave the neighborhood "improved" when you moved in...
The What (The What searches for a Bocce Ball)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at April 1, 2009 2:08 PM
Dave she was saying within the last 8 years.
Posted by: sebb at April 1, 2009 2:08 PM
sebb....sorry, lost track of what you're referring to. Who is "she" and waht happened within the last eight years.
What, I'm done with you for today. You make no sense whatsoever. Pull your head out of your ass.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 2:14 PM
Dave: I was speaking of MissMuffet. She keeps saying prices in the years from 2000 to 2007 went up 300% in NYC.
Posted by: sebb at April 1, 2009 2:26 PM
Oh, I hadn't seen that.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 2:29 PM
Mopar I couldn't agree more with your statement
it's really crazy isn't it?
Posted by: gemini10 at April 1, 2009 2:38 PM
Sebb, DIBS, 300% increases in 10 years (1998-2008) was not unheard of. There's plenty of evidence to support this.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at April 1, 2009 3:58 PM
I agreed with you on the 10 years, MM. You should have read my post above where I recounted buying in 1997 and selling in 2007. More than 300%!!!!
I think sebb was referring to a shorter period of time which I couldn't say how much the appreciation was.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 4:01 PM
"300% increases in 10 years (1998-2008)"
Tripling = 200% increase. The technicality was bothering me. Sorry.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 1, 2009 4:34 PM
Yes, it's crazy, Gemini.
Posted by: mopar at April 1, 2009 5:20 PM
Those curves are really telling no? Love pure data like this..it really puts the theory of NY being immune to rest eh?
But this can be a scary situation for everyone as MM has so nicely summarized above.
DIBS as someone else has tried to explain to you above an increase in interest rate from 5% to 10% is minimal in relation to the kinds of savings buyers will make if prices fall to 40% from peak. Also in all likelihood interest rates will stay low for a while longer and lag the real time price reductions we are seeing today... THERE IS SIMPLY NO RUSH TO BUY.
"Most people I know have been the victim of a crime at some point in their NYC lives.I was robbed at gunpoint 6 years ago on Riverside Drive and 86th Street on the UWS. Big woop.
Next."
11217 what an insensitive attitude and abrasive comment. Really are you saying just because its happened to you and the people you know that it's not a big deal? Come on show some sympathy / civility the guy could have been killed.
And just for the record we deal with gun shot injuries and deaths personally so really find your comment to be despicable! Triste et mechante!
Posted by: pierre de taille at April 1, 2009 6:14 PM
Miss Muffett : The funny thing is with the Talf program coming to a theatre near you , prices will start to stabilize right here. Then what we will have is you and the what sleeping in a tent in the Catskills.
What you keep forgeting is the United states of america will not let things fail.
Posted by: sebb at April 1, 2009 6:14 PM
Pierre...interest rates WILL begin to rise in the not too distant future. You cannot say, with such certainty, that prices will fall 40%. Indeed, as inflation pushes rates higher so too will it push asset prices higher, including homes.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 1, 2009 6:41 PM
DIBS... please re-read we said "if" prices indeed fall to 40%. Now remember timing is in fact everything..interest rates will eventually increase but chances are the rate of increase will be much slower and will in effect lag the discount in home prices...guess our point is the timing is in favor of the buyers waiting...these roughly parabolic curves and published economists are clearly indicating that.
Posted by: pierre de taille at April 1, 2009 7:50 PM
Sebb - I don't think the Obama administration is interested in propping up NYC RE prices which overshot the mark and became unsustainable. The chances of TALF bailing out a brownstone owner who can get only 1.5Mil for their brownstone (instead of 3million) are about as likely as a further defense of egregious bonuses. After all, I would hardly call 1.5 million for a brownstone that sold for 1 mil 10 years ago a "failure" (that America needs to prevent from happening, according to you), even if it's a 50% drop from what it would have sold for last year. Keep dreaming though. You sound like one nervous owner.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at April 1, 2009 10:50 PM
"Bottom feeders, how do you respond?"
Yes, crime will go up and living standards will go down. For now, I don't care (I only worry about things I can control). Its a means to an end. For later, I'll cross that bridge. I'm only gleeful about the sales and rental collapse. But this side effect is what we get when we wrap the economy around home prices and not the other way around (on productivity, real wealth).
"ohio is a shithole of crime and bad chili.
you'll get stabbed in Akron."
That was kind of funny.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 1, 2009 11:40 PM
Latest Restaurant Additions
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Le Barricou
added November 20, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Der Schwarze Kölner
added November 19, 2009 12:00 PM in Fort Greene -
Oak Wine Bar & Café
added November 18, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Mr. Wonton
added November 17, 2009 12:00 PM in Park Slope -
Casa Rosa
added November 16, 2009 12:00 PM in Carroll Gardens -
Cousin John's Café & Bakery
added November 13, 2009 12:00 PM in Park Slope -
Elote
added November 12, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Miracle Grill
added November 11, 2009 12:00 PM in Park Slope -
Phoebe's Cafe
added November 10, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Ruthie's
added November 9, 2009 12:00 PM in Clinton Hill, Downtown Brooklyn
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