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April 29, 2009

Case Shiller Index: Negative Numbers Across the Board

case-shiller-ny-0409-b.jpgHome prices in the New York City area in February fell 1.6 percent from January and about 10 percent from a year before, according to new numbers from the Case-Shiller Index. Those drops were relatively benign compared to some parts of the country: Las Vegas and San Francisco all experienced year-over-year declines of over 30 percent while Phoenix achieved the distinction of being the first city to have its real estate values fall more than 50 percent from the 2006 peak. Some of the hardest hit regions have begun to show signs of stabilizing, as low prices, the proliferation of foreclosure sales and low interest rates have lured some buyers back to the table. Still, predictions for future declines across the country from so-called experts range from just 5 percent to as much as 33 percent. A chart from the Wall Street Journal of percentage changes in the nation's 20 largest cities is on the jump.
Phoenix Leads the Way Down in Home Prices [NY Times]
City Lags As Nation Hits Home Runs [NY Post]
A Look at Case-Shiller Numbers [WSJ]
NYC Price graph from The New York Times

case-shiller-all-0409.jpg




Posted by Brownstoner at 9:45 AM | Comments (118)
Categories: Market

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"Still, predictions for future declines across the country from so-called experts range from just 5 percent to as much as 33 percent."

And then we have our own group of crazies here on brownstoner with their 50-70%, well reasoned, well articulated predictions.

It looks to me that this process has bottomed nationwide which is also evident in the "New Houses Sold Per Month" data and the number of "Houses For Sale."

If you don't understand the difference between the Brooklyn townhouse market, and for that matter all of NYC as compared to places like Nevada & Florida then you really don't understand real estate especially as it relates to second homes and speculation.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 9:35 AM

i'd still look for another 10-15% down this year in NYC. that's not too doom and gloom....is it?

Posted by: martis at April 29, 2009 9:37 AM

I'd have agree with Martis. NYC, unfortunately, still has farther to go.

Posted by: Kris at April 29, 2009 9:41 AM

Since, here in NY, we saw declines later than anyone else, do you think that mabye we still have more reduction to go...not as drastic as 30%, but some?

Posted by: binnyG at April 29, 2009 9:42 AM

Martis,

That's not enough to qualify you for team bear on this site. Probably puts you in the middle somewhere.

Posted by: slopefarm at April 29, 2009 9:42 AM

Case Shiller only single family homes, not coops/condos in NYC--so I would look at this data in context

Posted by: Squattersrights at April 29, 2009 9:43 AM

dibs nice job nipping this one in the bud, 6 minutes after the post! gotta get up pretty early....

Posted by: joe_the_bummer at April 29, 2009 9:44 AM

-10% is not really much of a correction, even I agree with that. I bet overall about 10-20%, depending on what peak comps were for a neighborhood, which is fine.

Yes, it is peak comps that you need to look at, at least BHO is correct on that. Asking prices have nothing to do with any form of reality.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 9:45 AM

DIBS we expected nothing less from you...at least even a genius like yourself admits that prices have declined and will continue to do for a while.
Guess the adversarial tone now is the degree of decline vs.Continued incessant rising price increases in Brownstone Brooklyn.

Posted by: pierre de taille at April 29, 2009 9:46 AM

40% price chop!!!! Fill your boots!!!!!
http://www.311west75th.com/

Posted by: the chicken at April 29, 2009 9:47 AM

"Fill your boots" I haven't heard that phrase since the Hong Kong bull market of 1992. Spoken like a true Brit bag broker!!!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 9:51 AM

Almost everything on this site is, by opinion of most of the commentators, down 20-30% from what it would have been listed/sold in late 2007/ealy 2008. So how can there continue to be such denial?

Personally, I think prime brownstones are not going to fall much more but those Archie Bunker houses that sold for over a million are history as are the $500K one bedroom condos -- at least for now.

Posted by: BH76 at April 29, 2009 9:55 AM

So does this mean the mutant asset bubble is popping?

Posted by: dirty_hipster at April 29, 2009 9:56 AM

Condos & coops are still going to have a very hard time. There's a greater supply of them, the carrying costs are higher (fees) and they are still priced at price psf higher than most brownstones.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 9:58 AM

DIBS, how about "back up the truck!"?

Posted by: the chicken at April 29, 2009 10:03 AM

Still incredulous huh???? Overwhelming evidence of the collapse of the Mutant Asset Bubble and still the retards find fault with the data! Here retards lookie here!

Fed Is Said to Seek Capital for at Least Six Banks (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiz06xRmmeOQ&refer=home

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- At least six of the 19 largest U.S. banks require additional capital, according to preliminary results of government stress tests, people briefed on the matter said.

We have a insolvent Banking System.....

The What (6 months to impact!)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 10:04 AM

"Back up the truck" was used by a lot of American brokers. "Fill your boots" was truly British. Besides, wouldn't it be "Back up the lorrie?"

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 10:06 AM

well I did work for an American bank...

"cheap at half the price!"?
(which never really made sense to me - I always thought it should be "cheap at twice the price" to imply that it was a super-bargain)

Posted by: the chicken at April 29, 2009 10:09 AM

I agree...it should be "cheap at twice the price."

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 10:12 AM

Here is the big wildcard that the What loves to forget about...the US is pumping Billions of cash into the system and circulating it through a stimulus package that will probably happen again. Do you know how much has been printed/created in the last 9 months? Mutant Asset Bubble maybe, but if you print money and distribute it, you effectively reinflate it. Good/bad, I don't know, but it is happening. You can see it will price stabalization. I think there will be long term implications, but its not as easy as saying 80% off. Maybe in real terms, but nominally and in the prices we see it probably won't happen for that reason. Just my 2cents. Although it would be nice. One of those beauties on 3rd Street near the Park would be mine!

Posted by: LincolnSlope at April 29, 2009 10:18 AM

And what does the bull camp think is the long-term sustainable differential in housing costs between the NY metro area and the rest of the country? Because, obviously, that is growing. How long are employers going to be willing to pay the larger increment?

Posted by: Back40 at April 29, 2009 10:18 AM

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials will
probably hold off boosting their purchases of Treasuries and
mortgage securities as they gauge the strength of the “green
shoots” of an economic recovery.
The Fed concludes its two-day meeting today, and for the first time in more than a year officials will contend with improving prospects for a recovery. House-price declines are slowing, consumer confidence is rising and efforts to repair the credit markets are showing some signs of success.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 10:18 AM

LincolnSlope...that's certainly what has been moving the stock market, the excess liquidity.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 10:25 AM

Well there is this wall of cash that people now have out there. I get what the What and others are saying, but what they don't think about is that, unlike in the past (70s and 80s and even the GD) the government did not use Quantitative Easing to fix the problem. Japan used it, and they kept seeing assets tank, but Japan is not the reserve currency and Japan also cut off stimulus too early and started it too late. Also, their housing bubble was about 10x's worse than in the US (note some properties were going for $300,000 equivalent a square foot in areas surrounding the Palace and individuals were taking out legal mortgages that were liable to their grandchildren). So although it is easy to say it is an awful time to buy (and maybe it is) we have absolutely 0 clue of what will happen. Maybe this fixes the problem, maybe this causes rampant inflation making housing like gold since it has utility, or maybe interest rates will shoot up in order to curb inflation in which case all those people that are upset now with huge mortgages at 6% will be getting 10% on their savings and doing better than those without a mortgage.

Posted by: LincolnSlope at April 29, 2009 10:34 AM

"GDP falls 6.1% in first quarter on record drop in investment."

The stock market is rallying of course, as it has no connection to economic reality whatsoever.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at April 29, 2009 10:45 AM

Snark, we've been through this before. GDP numbers are historical and the stock market is the most forward looking of leading indicators. You stick to the arts and leave the stock market talk to me :)

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 10:47 AM

Nope. Stock market is forward looking. IF you look at the last major bear market it ALWAYS bottoms a few quarters before peak unemployment. Also, firing people has allowed companies to bring up profits after they take the costs for firing them and then as profits go up the cycle starts again. It's sort of annoying.

Posted by: LincolnSlope at April 29, 2009 10:47 AM

The US economy continues to be in steep decline. New York may be less affected by second home speculation, but is not immune to economic recession/depression. And that includes brownstones!

"They're not making any more of them" has to be one of the silliest analysis of a market.

Posted by: southbrooklyn at April 29, 2009 10:50 AM

I'm sorry if you missed buying in the market in the 1990s, southbrooklyn. Truly I am.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 10:52 AM

"Here is the big wildcard that the What loves to forget about...the US is pumping Billions of cash into the system and circulating it through a stimulus package that will probably happen again."

Yep but, when the Bond Market says "Fuck this shit" you will have a major dislocation on a scale like no other. Lookie here stupid:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

Ever since the Fed start to purchase long bonds (10 & 30 years) rates have gone up! Plus the spreads in the MBS pools are inching higher. The money the Goverment is pumping into the system does not benefit you (REATRD), it benefits the Global Hijacking Class (Big Boys)!

"Mutant Asset Bubble maybe, but if you print money and distribute it, you effectively reinflate it. Good/bad, I don't know, but it is happening. "

You cannot make money "Go Some where"! The Fed is not "printing money" it's just smoke and mirrors. A big circle jerk!

If you believe the lies coming out of Wall Street and Washington I feel sorry for you..

The What (Rally on!)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 11:04 AM

More insightful economic analysis from you know who. You can't make that stuff up.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 11:11 AM

DIBS,

Not that it changes the accuracy of my comment one way or the other, but I bought in 1993.

Didn't you buy a Bed Stuy brownstone at the very top of the market? Or maybe that's someone else.

Posted by: southbrooklyn at April 29, 2009 11:14 AM

I did, after I sold my Manhattan condo. The economics are truly extraordinary!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 11:18 AM

Keep in mind these stats are the metro area, which makes them pretty useless for our purposes. How Nassau County, outer Queens and central Jersey are doing doesn't seem to have much bearing on the central Brooklyn market most of us are concerned with.

Posted by: havelc at April 29, 2009 11:23 AM

I thought this article in sunday's times was pretty interesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/business/26pay.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=banking%20salaries&st=cse

Basically says that banking salaries are back at 2007, pre-crash levels. This could be because bonuses have become politically non-viable, not sure. But to some degree this opposes many on this site have been saying about the sector's future and the effect it will have on real estate in NYC.

Posted by: squaredrive at April 29, 2009 11:32 AM

> "the stock market is the most forward looking of leading indicators"

Forward looking? I call it magical thinking.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at April 29, 2009 11:34 AM

No idea how much further prices will drop but have a good idea when I'll buy. I'll buy a house when I "SEE" prices inch up. If prices aint going up, aint no reason to believe the decline wont continue. While we wait, RENTING is a great option

Posted by: more4less at April 29, 2009 11:51 AM

"The Open Thread by definition isn't supposed to have a lot of constraints on, well, the topics it contains but today's crossed the line of what we want to have on the site both topically and in terms the use of certain pejorative terms. While there was one particularly bad seed, it takes more than that to tango. We don't have time today to babysit and selectively decide which comments to delete so we pulled the whole thing. Hopefully tomorrow will go a little better."

Well well well.. Hey Brownstoner the Open Thread was not such a good idea after all. Just a Asshat Facebook Jerk Off. Now we can discuss or cuss the topics at hand..

The What (Over here!)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 11:59 AM

Gee, DIBS, I wouldn't go ad hominem on you, except you did on me!

I'd be more inclined to credit your prognostic genius if you had sold at the top and rented while the market collapsed. As it is, I'm sorry you're holding a falling asset. It's going to be many years before BS prices are ever going to reach what they were in the frothy times you bought. But then, I'm just a shmuck who bought right after the last NYC real estate collapse.

"How Nassau County, outer Queens and central Jersey are doing doesn't seem to have much bearing on the central Brooklyn market most of us are concerned with."

And the silliness continues.

Posted by: southbrooklyn at April 29, 2009 12:02 PM

How many years, southbrooklyn???

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 12:08 PM

"We don't have time today to babysit and selectively decide which comments to delete so we pulled the whole thing. Hopefully tomorrow will go a little better."

Man, you guys just can't behave, huh?

Posted by: East New York at April 29, 2009 12:16 PM

ENY, now I need to hijack some threads to get my reading enjoymt so shutting down the OT is going to cause more problems for rest of readers

Posted by: more4less at April 29, 2009 12:18 PM

Weird, how DIBS keeps bragging about exchanging one declining asset for another, more rapidly declining asset. Also weird, his assertion that he is a stock guru, when at least once a week someone actually in the business calls him out on a howler. Oh, right, I forgot --I work at Target, I'm a loon, I should STFU.

Notice, also, goalpost moving once again --the "bears" believe 50-70% off peak comps. Weird again --I don't really remember saying that. What I remember, and vividly, is arguing with people who thought RE always goes up; until they started arguing it always goes up in Brooklyn; until they started arguing brownstones are different; before they started arguing it will "only" go down 20-30%.

Posted by: Whuh at April 29, 2009 12:21 PM

"ENY, now I need to hijack some threads to get my reading enjoymt so shutting down the OT is going to cause more problems for rest of readers"

Hey, don't blame me - I don't even know what it's all about! I wasn't involved. I'm still grappling the media's obsession w/ swine flu. OK, sorry, please resume the Case Schiller discussion.

Posted by: East New York at April 29, 2009 12:25 PM

Note the quote in the WSJ: We're probably about two-thirds through the price declines.

Ha! Really? If we've been down for 2.6 years, and we're two-thirds through it, then that means the economy (or at least real estate prices) comes back up in 15 months. Doesn't that just seem very, very, very unlikely?

If it does come back in 15 months, I doubt we will see more than 20 percent off peak in prime areas such as Park Slope.

Anyone else care to opine?

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 12:27 PM

Interesting question, DIBS. I'm going to say it'll be 20 years before your Bed Stuy brownstone is once again worth as much as you paid for it. What do you think?

Posted by: southbrooklyn at April 29, 2009 12:27 PM

Can someone provide a family-friendly synopsis of the OT? I missed it.

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 12:30 PM

I think you know absolutely nothing about NYC and its real estate market!!!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 12:32 PM

Oh my lord! Can't we just say that shit is going down by some significant percentage and move on?

Posted by: wasder at April 29, 2009 12:34 PM

wasder, I hope you don't carry that bad attitude with you the rest of the day and the evening :)

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 12:36 PM

"I think you know absolutely nothing about NYC and its real estate market!!!!!"

--DIBS..

The retarded comment of the year.

"Oh my lord! Can't we just say that shit is going down by some significant percentage and move on?'

--Wasder..

The scariest comment of the year...

"Here comes the shockwave! Six months..."

The What..

The greatest prediction is history..

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 12:41 PM

DIBS--bad attitude will be checked at the door. And really, it is not as if people are trying to make valid points here on both sides its just that I feel like I am in Groundhogs Day in these threads...

Posted by: wasder at April 29, 2009 12:44 PM

Wasder, if we were to move on, what would we losers do all day???!!!!!!

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 12:45 PM

What is retarded about that What?

We can spin our collective wheels on what will happen in the economy and housing market until we are all blue in the cyber-face and none of us will actually know what is going to happen. So many other things to put one's energy into.

Posted by: wasder at April 29, 2009 12:47 PM

Market up/down aside, funny thing is dibs lumping his ghetto property to Prime brownstones. Hey Mr Money Manager Living in the Ghetto, wake up!!!!

Posted by: cornerbodega at April 29, 2009 12:49 PM

"We can spin our collective wheels on what will happen in the economy and housing market until we are all blue in the cyber-face and none of us will actually know what is going to happen"

Hey don't shift now Wasder!!!!!!! First "Brownstoner will never go down" and then "Well we will lose about 10% but I will raise my family" and now this piece of shit!

Whuh is spot on! Stop moving the goalposts dumbass! We know where this is going, to a DEPRESSION!!!!!!!

Tick.. tick.. tick.. Six months enjoy it while you can!

The What (Someone give Wasder a reach around!)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 12:56 PM

OT RIP.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at April 29, 2009 12:58 PM

Props my friends,

I be in the process of building a JEW Church in Brownstone Brooklyn to stabilize & prop up prices. No worries, yo'. Crazy money-launderin' bearded Hassi's to da' rescue, yo!

Posted by: PropJoe at April 29, 2009 1:02 PM

What, you can look back at my posts around the time I bought my house and I clearly bought with the knowledge that its an "asset" that is going to be declining in the foreseeable future so no shifting on my part. I just get tired of the incessant squabbling on speculative markets that none of us have any control over. I guess Mopar is right though, what the hell else would we fight about.

For my part, as long as we don't end up in full blown Depression I can see a long happy life for myself in my house. IF a depression does come, all bets are off, but I certainly am not rooting for such an outcome as some people are.

Posted by: wasder at April 29, 2009 1:03 PM

wasder....what, whuh, cornerbodega and the rest of the loons really have no clue what it is like to own a home.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 1:13 PM

Snark...go to the Forum

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 1:13 PM

"wasder....what, whuh, cornerbodega and the rest of the loons really have no clue what it is like to own a home."

What, Whuh, Cornerbodega and the rest of the loons really have no clue what it is like to LOSE a home!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 1:15 PM

Nice rewrite what but you got to be able to own one before you can lose one. Oh I know, you're all saving a lot of money ny renting. NOT...you're all spending it on malt liquor. BWWWAAAHAHAHAHAHAH

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 1:17 PM

OK that was pretty funny Dave.

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 1:19 PM

"Some of the hardest hit regions have begun to show signs of stabilizing, as low prices, the proliferation of foreclosure sales and low interest rates have lured some buyers back to the table."

Tempting if you ignore yesterday's thread on mortgage losses by Seeking Alpha. We will continue to see false glimmers of hope and then get re-disappointed as the collapse gets worse.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 1:27 PM

"Nice rewrite what but you got to be able to own one before you can lose one. Oh I know, you're all saving a lot of money ny renting. NOT...you're all spending it on malt liquor. '

Hey Dave I wonder what you neighbors think about you covert racist attitude, huh?

The "Malt Liquor" thing is real nice Dave but one thing. You live in the Ghetto Dave and you delusion will not change that. See me in six months BWWWAAAHAHAHAHAHAH!

The What (Dave is my bitch)

Someday this war is gonna end..

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 1:31 PM

"Case Shiller only single family homes, not coops/condos in NYC--so I would look at this data in context"

You mean the context that both the index and multi-fams and coops/condos all tripled in value (+200%) from the 90's trough? Relevant on the way up, relevant on the way down? Oh, okay. Yeah, that makes sense.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 1:34 PM

"And then we have our own group of crazies here on brownstoner with their 50-70%, well reasoned, well articulated predictions."

Uh, DIBS, they meant up to an additional 33% which, by the way, would put us at approximately half off. You're right about 'well reasoned'.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 1:37 PM

OK, What...PBRs then. Trash is trash, don't matter what they drink.

I don't think any of my neighbors drink malt liquor so I don't know what you're referring to.

Meanwhile, in the face of -6% GDP and a worsening swine flu epidemic, the market is up 2.4%.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 1:37 PM

What was said on the OT that it got deleted? I didn't read it today. Darn.

Posted by: LincolnSlope at April 29, 2009 1:38 PM

You're getting better at toggling between What & BHO these days. it's kind of like a paranoid schizophrenic going back and forth between personalities.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 1:39 PM

Hey where are the Dumbasses????? Usually the Retards would be out in full force!

Yoo Hoo The What got the Baseball Bat resting on his shoulder! I want to swing at the first pitch! Is the war over???

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 1:39 PM

A few observations:

1. Everyone with credibility on this board now agrees that prices are declining.

2. The debate has turned from whether prices will decline to how much.

3. So it's really just a question of degree, and that discussion is kind of dull.

4. The debate will get interesting again when people can start claiming there is a bottom.

5. We aren't there yet.

Posted by: lechacal at April 29, 2009 1:41 PM

"Meanwhile, in the face of -6% GDP and a worsening swine flu epidemic, the market is up 2.4%"

Is this the "truth"???? Like this shit!

Fed Is Said to Seek Capital for at Least Six Banks (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiz06xRmmeOQ&refer=home

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- At least six of the 19 largest U.S. banks require additional capital, according to preliminary results of government stress tests, people briefed on the matter said.

But WAIT! The Banks said they had a PROFIT last quarter!!!

Dave six months!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...


Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 1:42 PM

Speaking of baseball, premium Yankee tickets, anologous to premium brownstones, now priced at half off, the new mantra.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 1:45 PM

Dazzle us some more with your acume of bank financial stement analysis. Please, I really find it informative.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 1:46 PM

I like that one, BHO but you gotta admit, the Yankees sure look like losers this year. Again. Go Phillies.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 1:49 PM

"Speaking of baseball, premium Yankee tickets, anologous to premium brownstones, now priced at half off, the new mantra."

Thank so much BHO um The Wh.. No BHO.. No not again!

Yankees Seek to Fill Stadium Seats With Price Cuts, Giveaways

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=aInkuzsPW55g&refer=home

"Some seats that were priced at $2,500 per game were cut to $1,250, and others at $1,000 now will be $650. Fans who purchased such season-ticket plans will receive either a refund or a credit, the team said."

ROTFLMMFAO!

The What (Brooklyn Brownstones next)

Someday Peak Tickets is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 1:51 PM

Anybody think the economy will turn around in 15 months?

Anybody think real estate prices will stop declining in 15 months -- even if the economy continues to tank?

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 1:54 PM

"You're getting better at toggling between What & BHO these days."

When all else fails, distract the readership from the points made.

"...the Yankees sure look like losers this year. Again. Go Phillies."

And, again, so does Team Bullshit. Go Team Bear!!!

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 1:55 PM

What - That toggle rendition is priceless.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 1:57 PM

DIBS thinks the economy will turn around in 15 seconds, mopar.

Alright, back to work...

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 1:58 PM

Dave --for the record, I won a home --a v beautiful one, in fact; though not in Brooklyn. (No, not Lodi. Upstate.)

Posted by: Whuh at April 29, 2009 1:59 PM

Lechacal is correct that when its a matter of degrees the conversation gets pretty boring, which is where we are now. Calling the bottom, though you won't hear me doing it with my lack of market savvy, will certainly provide more interesting grist for the mill. In the mean time we all get treated to more and more repetitive arguments on unknowable outcomes.

Posted by: wasder at April 29, 2009 1:59 PM

"Own," not "won." Wish I had won one.

Posted by: Whuh at April 29, 2009 1:59 PM

Since I was born "upstate," Upstate to me means the Adirondacks. Really nice up there.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 2:03 PM

My father is from Auburn; other family from Binghamton; great uncle was a state senator. I know from upstate.

Posted by: Whuh at April 29, 2009 2:06 PM

"Since I was born "upstate," Upstate to me means the Adirondacks. Really nice up there."

Mental Hospitals do not count Dave.

"No, not Lodi. Upstate."

Nooooooo Don't "dis" my hood! Lodi is great for scoring drugs...

The What (Lodi's Finest!)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 2:10 PM

From Albany...my mother's first cousin is Kirsten Gillibrand's mother. Her mother ran the Albany democratic machine for years and was the mayor's "confidant."

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 2:10 PM

What...I've never been in a mental hospital. I've only been in jail once and that was in Hong Kong. i didn't experience what you did.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 2:12 PM

"I've only been in jail once and that was in Hong Kong."

So your slot goes from left to right?

The What

Someday this war is gonna end..

Posted by: Return of The What at April 29, 2009 2:15 PM

49.5% - not as bearish as the bigger bears.

why predict a bottom? buy when prices actually go up or buy if someone is giving you a humungous discount that feels like a bottom.

stock mkt does well, companies' profits doing well,.... That's nice to know amidst this doom & gloom. however, until YOU see / feel the benefits (ie job feels safe, salary is popping, savings piling up....), it means jack squat. Can't make buy decision based on others doing well. Buy when YOU feel you're doing well.

Posted by: more4less at April 29, 2009 2:16 PM

That's the kind of talk that borders on getting the OT taken down and then you have to search all the other threads to find an Asshat like me to chat with.

And we don't call each other names like "slot" anymore. :)

C U Next Tuesday!!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 2:20 PM

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Lewis Ranieri, a mortgage-bond
pioneer and former Salomon Brothers vice chairman, said the
slump in U.S. home prices is almost over and that he’s
“enthusiastic” about housing for the first time in five years.
“I’m actually very enthusiastic about housing, and I
haven’t said that in five years,’’ Ranieri said, speaking on a panel at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. “We’re within shouting distance of a bottom.”

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 3:16 PM

Is that because he just got a nice big bonus?

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 3:24 PM

"the Yankees sure look like losers this year. Again. Go Phillies."

It's APRIL. The baseball season ends in September.

Posted by: East New York at April 29, 2009 3:43 PM

ENY, I'm a METS fan but have to give the CHAMPS some freedom to brag, rub it in, ... cause they are the CHAMPS

Posted by: more4less at April 29, 2009 3:49 PM

Yankeetrash.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 3:49 PM


"ENY, I'm a METS fan but have to give the CHAMPS some freedom to brag, rub it in, ... cause they are the CHAMPS"

Hey, I'll give props to the Champs. I give them all credit. But you know, that was LAST YEAR. This is a new year. And it's just started.

Posted by: East New York at April 29, 2009 4:01 PM

Yankee Tickets!!!!! Get your Yankee Tickets here!!!! HALF OFF!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 4:07 PM

"1. Everyone with credibility on this board now agrees that prices are declining."

Come out from hiding, Sebb! Where are you?

Go Padres! Doesn't my team get an award for exceeding expectations? ;)

Posted by: sixyearsandcounting at April 29, 2009 4:18 PM


Don't break your leg jumping off the bandwagon this year, Dave, just in case the Phillies don't make it back. I'm just saying.

"Go Padres! Doesn't my team get an award for exceeding expectations? ;)"

Um, who?

Posted by: East New York at April 29, 2009 4:21 PM

"Close" only counts with horse shoes and hand grenades, six years. :)

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at April 29, 2009 4:27 PM

ENY: I love going to Shea/Citi Field and being one of 10 Padres fans in a crowd of thousands.

DIBS: In San Diego sports you don't even have to be close to be considered "good enough for us" - even if we lose a few too many games, who cares? Life's a beach.

Posted by: sixyearsandcounting at April 29, 2009 4:44 PM

"City Lags As Nation Hits Home Runs [NY Post]"

See, mopar?

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 5:06 PM

It's just a headline. My point is that just because something happens in Florida or Nevada doesn't mean it's a foregone conclusion the same thing will happen here.

Those two states are down much more than the others.

Though I don't hold out great hopes for the economy, or real estate, recovering in the next 15 months.

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 5:24 PM

> "We’re within shouting distance of a bottom."

Indeed. A bottom named Dave.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at April 29, 2009 5:30 PM

It's not just one headline, mopar. It's multiple headlines. NYC lags and will catch up. Done deal.

A little more perspective than what the shills want you to have...

Metro Peak Feb-09 Total Drop
Atlanta 136.47 106.65 -21.85%
Boston 182.45 148.77 -18.46%
Charlotte 135.88 118.94 -12.47%
Chicago 168.60 126.3 -25.09%
Cleveland 123.17 97.76 -20.63%
Dallas 126.47 112.39 -11.13%
Denver 140.28 120.22 -14.30%
Detroit 127.05 74.6 -41.28%
Las Vegas 234.78 121.06 -48.44%
Los Angeles 273.94 163.16 -40.44%
Miami 280.87 154.28 -45.07%
Minneapolis 171.12 116.39 -31.98%
New York 215.83 178.16 -17.45%
Phoenix 227.42 111.89 -50.80%
Portland 186.51 150.88 -19.10%
San Diego 250.34 146.82 -41.35%
San Francisco 218.37 120.39 -44.87%
Seattle 192.30 152.12 -20.89%
Tampa 238.09 145.25 -38.99%
Washington 251.07 168.02 -33.08%

And BTW, if you go look at the data from the S&P site, you'll find that they're have been multiple false glimmers of hope (price up month-to-month, then price down month-to-month) for most if not all cities. What's to say that this YOY "stabilization" is not, especially in the face of all the resets to take place through 2011 or 2012 or whatever it is?

-44.87% for San Fran! Damn, already half off! I recall quite a few threads comparing SF to NYC. Uh oh!

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 6:11 PM

Funny about SF. Except for Hunter's Point, it's still totally unaffordable.

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 6:16 PM

Seems like NYC's curve up wasn't as extreme on the way up so why wouldn't it be less extreme on the way down as well?

BHO? Anyone? I don't understand this index very well so I could obviously be reading this wrong but it seems like, despite the high prices of NYC, compared to many markets the curve of the bubble was a lot less extreme.

Posted by: wasder at April 29, 2009 6:32 PM

> "the curve of the bubble was a lot less extreme."

Really? Prices have doubled (or more) in the past 5-6 years in Park Slope and Prospect Heights.

Sounds pretty bubbly to me.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at April 29, 2009 6:44 PM

That San Francisco number is such baloney. It must reflect new construction in really bad areas or something. Victorians are still $800,000 and up, and there are no one-bedroom apartments under $200,000.

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 6:49 PM

Jackson Heights went up 40 percent in 2005. Isn't that incredible?

But it was underpriced to start with. And hasn't gone down all that much yet. Place could use a decent restaurant though.

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 7:37 PM

"Seems like NYC's curve up wasn't as extreme on the way up so why wouldn't it be less extreme on the way down as well?"

Click on WSJ's interactive graph. NYC looks just like San Fran.

"That San Francisco number is such baloney."

Because it's SF Metro. The boom started in SF proper where buyers were priced out, bought out in the suburbs and pushed priced up there as well. The collapse works in reverse, from the burbs back to the city. Those victorians will go for half off peak before it's said and done.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 29, 2009 10:44 PM

Oh! It's SFO metro! Arg! It's the whole Bay Area! News flash! San Francisco proper is NOT down ANYWHERE around 44 percent. No way. Never never never never. The whole goddamn city moved home with their mothers in 2001 and prices WENT UP.

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 11:23 PM

Also, BHO you have no idea what you are talking about. The "boom" did not "start" in San Francisco and work its way into the suburbs. Prices have been skyrocketing in various elite and tony corners of the Bay Area, such as Palo Alto, Marin, San Francisco, and Atherton since Prop 13 passed in 1978.

Posted by: mopar at April 29, 2009 11:27 PM

"Really? Prices have doubled (or more) in the past 5-6 years in Park Slope and Prospect Heights."

Snark--I am specifically looking at the parabola of the various cities arcs in the Case Shiller graphic. Compared with many markets it appears (in that graphic) that the extremity of the bubble was less here.

Posted by: wasder at April 30, 2009 12:06 AM

"San Francisco proper is NOT down ANYWHERE around 44 percent."

Not yet. Neither is the whole NY Metro area. Like I already said above, victorians will see half off. It's a process, not an event.

I know exactly what I am talking about. It's been the same in all cities. Buyers get priced out and push up the less expensive areas which are by and large the suburbs. Even the hoods get more pricey as gentrification displaces lower income residents out the the burbs. "Elite and tony corners" (Marin County, Los Altos Hills?) are the exception and make up a small percentage of the suburbs at large.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at April 30, 2009 4:42 PM

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