Unemployment Rate Hits 25-Year High

How's this for a theory...

... as population increases so will the % of layoffs in downturns. More people working, more to layoff...

25 years from now the population will be bigger so when we have another downturn I bet we'll see "Unemployment Rates hits highest level since 2009"

But then again, while the population increases the unemployment rate stays within a general percentage range, say 3-10%. So maybe 97% employment is the best we can ever do...

just thinking out loud...

Posted by: christopher at March 6, 2009 11:26 AM

newsouthsloper,
I agree about the definition of pool, but I would argue the pool is actually larger than it was 20 years ago.

The '90s had the biggest population boom in American history, greatly raising the level of entry level employees in the 18-64 metric.

Also, people are living longer and retiring later so the % of 55-65 year old's working today is higher than 20 years ago when the "normal" retirement age was 55 (instead of 62 as it is today).

As of 2007 60% of the population was between age 20-64.

I think the pool is greatly increased compared to 1988.

Posted by: christopher at March 6, 2009 11:52 AM

In 1998 there were roughly 136.3 million people in the American workforce (includes unemployed).

As of 2008 it's roughly 155.2 million.

(CIA World Fact Book numbers)

My point is these numbers are all relative. We have a higher rate of unemployment but also higher rate of employable people.
So when the economy turns around there will still be unemployed regardless of the size of the workforce.

There will never be zero unemployment and generally the numbers lag enough, and don't take into consideration things like sell employed starting a business, etc.

Yeah it sucks, but you know what it is a cycle. I think if nothing else this shows that this downturn will end, and as much as it sucks, we'll probably have another one on another 25 years. It's the cycle of the economy.

Posted by: christopher at March 6, 2009 12:09 PM