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February 5, 2009

Quote of the Day

quotation-icon.jpgOnce we join the rest of the country in terms of accepting reality - we are by the way now falling under the same lending standards of income to debt ratios, and under the new appraisal requirements set forth in the lending crack-downs - we should see prices return to levels where they still should be had the past 10 years of bizzaro world not happened. In 1-2 years (or less) wait and see if we don't follow the rest of the country. I'm looking again at condos around Miami and they are around $100/psf - even less for anything that isn't new construction. These same exact condos were in the $700-800 psf range just 2 years ago - I still have my old offering and information paperwork from when I was looking at the same units back then. One of the units that was asking $700,000, is now right at $100K with the seller kicking in closing costs. And we are talking prime neighborhoods. So sit back and watch. It's not going to be pretty for sellers who overpaid, but will be great for families in our city who can move back in and not have to live 2 adults and 4 kids in a studio that they still can't afford.

— by williamsburgguy in Toll Gets Serious About Selling at Northside Piers




Posted by Brownstoner at 3:26 PM | Comments (57)
Categories: QOTD

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Comments

Sure whatever except what drove the market in Miami is not what drives the market in NY, Speculation, 2nd home, Etc. So sit back and wait all you want cause this same thing is not gonna happen here. Comparing the NYC market with Las Vegas or Miami is so moronic, this should not be quote of the day.

Posted by: billyboomer at February 5, 2009 3:31 PM

Ok, I'm guessing this comment was posted to drive comments and traffic so I'll bite.

I really don't see how we can compare Miami (pop. 409,000) to NYC (pop 8.3 million) when Miami's inventory stands at roughly 40,000 properties on the market and NYC has what, 10,000 or so...?

Have all the rules of supply and demand gone out the window in these discussions. NYC real estate prices are going to decrease, absolutely...but not on the scale like Miami, which was built almost completely on speculation.

Has anyone actually BEEN to Miami? I wouldn't live there if you paid ME 700,000k!

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 3:32 PM

You beat me to it, billyboomer.

Totally moronic, indeed.

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 3:33 PM

"And we are talking prime neighborhoods."


I didn't realize there was such a thing when referring to Miami proper. It all looked like a pit to me.

And while I know property prices have crashed in Miami, 700K to 100K (or 75K as you posted in some of your other posts about Miami real estate) seem like the exception and not the norm.

Prices there have tanked about 30-40%, I believe.

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 3:41 PM

I felt sure DIBS molaasses story was going to be QOTD

Posted by: dittoburg at February 5, 2009 3:50 PM

Yey, we're never going to hit 100k for a condo currently going for 700k in Brooklyn, simply because at a certain point, people who still have decent jobs and make decent money would be insane *not* to buy.

I pay $2600/month for a 2 BR in Park Slope ... that means that if a decent 2 BR condo or co-op came on the market, the same neighborhood, for anything less than $450k (or more depending on down payment), I would be spending more on rent than it'd cost me to buy. There'd be absolutely no motivation to stay in the rental. There barely is even with the price for decent 2BR's in Park Slope hovering around $700k.

So the idea that it's going to drop down below those levels seems unlikely. There are too many people like me who were priced out during the boom, but are waiting on the wings to jump when the price is right.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at February 5, 2009 3:50 PM

I dunno, Miami is pretty nice.
What attracted people to NYC over the past twenty years has been the ridiculously lucrative job offerings on Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc. If those big bucks are not there, what's the attraction here? The subways? the fusion Thai-Somali restaurans? The problem with being really hot is that it's easy to cool down. I'm not a pessimistic person but neither do I think that the future of New York is assured. we have a lot of problems too.
All kinds of trends can shift, and suddenly its 1974 all over again. Never say it can't happen again.

Posted by: sam at February 5, 2009 3:57 PM

If RE prices fell 30% in New York City during the late 1980s/early 1990s, why can't they fall 50% or more now? Bear in mind that the stock market recovered from the 1987 crash within a year. That doesn't look likely now. If anything, the markets will probably continue to slide (along with the dollar, employment levels, tax revenues etc etc). Would it really be surprising if NYC values returned to pre-2003 levels? I don't think so.

Posted by: 1929 at February 5, 2009 3:58 PM

sam - I think there are a lot more things that attracted people to NYC than just the high-level finance jobs. I've been here for four years now working for internet startups, for example, and would've moved here earlier than that if I could've found the right job.

And yes, the restaurants and museums and parks and operas and shows and music and blah blah blah do play a big part. There are only a few cities in this country where you can find so much stuff packed so tightly together. There's just not a lot of places that offer what this city does. In fact the only other city I can think of that comes close, in this country, is San Francisco ... which is equally as pricey.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at February 5, 2009 4:07 PM

Why is it that people understand (and are wildly in favor of) markets, when the markets are zooming upward, and then when they come crashing down can't believe that they will continue to go lower? But they can, and, more often than people would like, they do.

Posted by: David Lewis at February 5, 2009 4:09 PM

The issue will always be the PE ratio. In other words, what I can buy vs. what I can rent for what I could have bought. Camp Bull will say that the PE is not applicable since the equity in the house will appreciate so spend more to buy it now and leverage the thing. Camp bear will say that it's all about not catching a falling knife.

I've been looking as well and when I see my 2 bedroom +office 1200/sqft henry street carroll gardens $2500/month rental for sale for $500K (give or take) then I would be a fool (financially) not to act.

My opinion, as cwbuecheler might be, is that when prices normalize and become stable to historic norms (for both appreciation and/or PE to rent) then it makes prudent sense to get into the market. And, it's this lack of prudence on the behalf of many people in the last decade that helped to put us collectively where we are today. The fed didn't make money cheap because they wanted you to save it.

On another related note, I rarely comment but I read this site every day and I gotta tell you that very few of the posters, bloggers, or stories featured on brownstoner really get at the real issue which is, of course, that we're in the beginning of a stupidly terrifying and momentous sea change of a re(depre?)cession. Gordon Brown let the cat out of the bag today about this.

If we're actually deep into this stag/deflation/(de?)recession then it really doesn't matter what any of us want, since we're all going to go down with the ship. If anything, Brownstoner of late seems like a ship full of optimists talking about the beauty of the sinking ship.

my two cents.

Posted by: xander at February 5, 2009 4:12 PM

cwbuecheler- its interesting you cite San Fran- the metro area is suffering some of the largest price drops in the nation- and some very high default rates on mortgages.

The tone on this forum a year ago would flame anyone sitting on the sidelines with cash as being stupid. Now- cash is king. Foreigners coming in to save the day? Not anymore. NYC will always take a while to catch up because of the extremely large number of coops that required borrowers to put down way more than the minimum that banks would allow and the lopsided supply demand curve. But you can only hold back the tide for so long. But its a double edged sword- if prices really do fall down fast in NY- that means its going to be a rough ride for everyone- much worse than right now.

Posted by: panda10 at February 5, 2009 4:19 PM

Well the string quartet are putting on a jolly good show.

Posted by: dittoburg at February 5, 2009 4:20 PM

panda10 - understood, re: SF. But it's still far more expensive than most of the rest of the country, even though it's less expensive than it used to be.

Everything is dropping, and I'm in now way denying that. I'm *hoping* for it, as it's to my benefit. I'd be thrilled if I could buy what I want, in the neighborhood that I want, for $100k

I largely agree with what Xander posted, though. I'm not sure where prices are going to stabilize, but when they do, prudent buyers will jump back in.

I don't believe they're going to stabilize at $100k for what used to be $700k. I think it'll be higher than that. But you never do know.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at February 5, 2009 4:27 PM

You know what I love? Back when the market was soaring, some people observed that we were in a bubble that couldn;t possibly last. Others shouted back that "it's different this time" this is not a bubble, but a new economy caused by blah blah blah. Now that the market is in the tank, and some people are observing that it's only a matter of time before credit markets open back up and the markets correct themsleves, it seems like there are tons of people who are shouting back "it's different this time" this downturn is not your typical recession but a shift in paradigm blah blah blah.

When things are good, some people can't imagine that they'll ever be bad, and when things are bad, some people can never imagine that they'll ever be good again.

Posted by: Make My Heights the P Heights at February 5, 2009 4:27 PM

Waltz with me, ditto?

Posted by: SnarkSlope at February 5, 2009 4:40 PM

"I didn't realize there was such a thing when referring to Miami proper. It all looked like a pit to me." and "Has anyone actually BEEN to Miami? I wouldn't live there if you paid ME 700,000k!"

These have to be my favorite ironic embedded quotes of the day. Have you ever been to some of our own neighborhoods here in Brooklyn or Queens where the asking prices are still in the $700/psf ranges? I couldn't even begin to count how many individual streets and neighborhoods right around me here in Williamsburg would qualify for those 2 statements, yet here we are, expecting the world to pay $700 or more PSF then trying to rationalize that NYC is the single city in the whole country that will not be affected the same way that all other cities who also said they would not be affected. Sure, it's taking a little longer to set in, but we expected that. To hide your head in the sand and repeat "there's no place like home there's no place like home" over and over won't make it so. There just isn't the income here to support every single house or craphole apartment being in the 6 figures. Sure BH and PS might not fall as far or as fast - Beverly HIlls is still holding its own I hear. However, these old woodies that I live in in the Burg and most of your gut-reno required brownstones are nothing special so therefore they will fall to a nothing special price. Denial isn't just another river apparently.

Posted by: williamsburgguy at February 5, 2009 4:41 PM

You'll have to lead.

Posted by: dittoburg at February 5, 2009 4:42 PM

Williamsburgguy, how can it "be great for families in our city who can move back in and not have to live 2 adults and 4 kids in a studio that they still can't afford?" in an economic collapse? I'm seriously wondering whom this depression will benefit even if prices go down 90%. The lower the income, the harder people are gonna be hit, it seems to me.

Posted by: iz at February 5, 2009 4:55 PM

I was just in Miami. Miami comparisons are ridiculous, however you want to argue this. I was with people from out west there for the first time and everyone agreed it sucked. I'd take sunset park any day.

Anyway, there was a sign on a crappy looking building somewhere near the port, (not south beach) that said "studios from the low 200s". It's not THAT cheap.

Posted by: squaredrive at February 5, 2009 4:58 PM

Miami comps not relevant other than to say we are going south. Far more product overhang there, lower development costs and dependence on a much more limited albeit international market. NYC best apartment market in USA in many ways. You won't see 100/foot here, units will just be rented.

Posted by: chrishavens at February 5, 2009 4:58 PM

iz, i was just going to post something similar. we're supposed to shrug our shoulders at these "sellers who overpaid" but feel sympathetic for 2 adults who can't afford a studio but have 4 kids? if this fantasy involves some evil millionaire wall streeter being in such a situation as to be forced to sell his mansion for $100,000, there's no way this fictional family is going to be in such a situation as to afford it.

Posted by: i disagree at February 5, 2009 5:07 PM

Someone is reading The What's comments today.

" '...2 adults and 4 kids in a studio that they still can't afford.'

Hey Brownstoner this is your QOTD! "

-Posted by: Return of The What at February 5, 2009 1:39 PM in 'Toll Gets Serious About Selling at Northside Piers'

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 5, 2009 5:09 PM

simpletons, pseudo-intellectuals ie. 11217 can't comprehend the simplest of concepts. When people reference the rest of the country, its relative pricing (not absolute). NYC will always be more expensive, it'll drop 50% and still be more expensive. But drop it will like the rest of the country. If you disagree about the drop thats one thing, but if you idiots are saying "You won't see 100/ft here!" then you just have no clue.

Posted by: cornerbodega at February 5, 2009 5:14 PM

i_disagree: but don't you know that it's everyone's right to have as many children as they want, without facing criticism, regardless of their financial means? :P

Posted by: cwbuecheler at February 5, 2009 5:14 PM

As mentioned, the Miami area real estate boom was fueled by many more 2nd-homers, flippers, and other sorts of speculation. I expect NYC prices to go down, but anyone who thinks the drop will be from 700K to 100K is just dreaming. And SF (the "city proper") is still an extremely expensive city to live in. I am always asking my friends if housing prices are coming down substantially and they say no. I suppose the prices are down in the "inland areas" etc. but that is the same situation in NYC. Prices in Manhattan and in the nice nabes in the boroughs with short commutes are holding up.

Posted by: Carol Gardens at February 5, 2009 5:17 PM

Let me rephrase: "holding up" as in not tanking as deeply as some here would predict/hope. And it's not like I wouldn't love to buy a roomy 2 bedroom where I am renting right now. Don't expect to, though.

Posted by: Carol Gardens at February 5, 2009 5:20 PM

I am interested in buying in Miami for 100k, but I don't really know the area well. Can someone point me in the right direction? Is there a good real estate blog there? I want a place to take the kids -- near beaches and restaurants.

Posted by: Ringo at February 5, 2009 5:20 PM

cwbuecheler, yeah, you can have your kids, just don't bitch when they start growing up.

Posted by: iz at February 5, 2009 5:22 PM

"I'm seriously wondering whom this depression will benefit even if prices go down 90% [SLIGHT EXAGGERATION]."

It'll immediately benefit those credit-worthy buyers who have saved, are fortunate enough to keep their jobs and can stay solvent. It'll eventually benefit everybody else when the economy recovers and people start working again as they will have the OPPORTUNITY to buy close to the bottom. RE always has "recovered", and always will "recover", SLOWLY and after jobs. The collapse and bottom will be 'L' shaped. I put quotes around the word RECOVER because it won't be back to 2006. It'll be back to historic average inflation, 4% annualy give or take.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 5, 2009 5:25 PM

iz - you maaaay have missed the sarcasm in my post.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at February 5, 2009 5:32 PM

panda10, "prime" areas in SF such as Pacific Heights and the bay area such as Palo Alto have hardly dropped. But yeah you can get a condo in subprime areas such as Hunter's Point for bargain-basement prices, JUST LIKE HERE.

Posted by: mopar at February 5, 2009 5:34 PM

There are always going to be rich people, and those rich people are always going to pay lots of money to live somewhere.

There's a reason why there are about 40x more foreclosures available in Bed Stuy right now than there are in Brooklyn Heights.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at February 5, 2009 5:42 PM

"What attracted people to NYC over the past twenty years has been the ridiculously lucrative job offerings on Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc."


Really??!

Because that's definitely not why I came, nor is it the reason why anyone I know came. Most people I know came here to work in creative fields or to live in a place where being a little "different" was normal.

Since jobs in the Financial Services make up less than 10% of jobs in the city, I'd say that 90% of the people who came here didn't do so because of Wall Street.

And Madison Avenue? I'm SURE that's why all these 20 somethings who have flooded neighborhoods like Williamsburg and the Lower East Side have come here. For Madison Avenue and Wall Street.

Huh?

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 5:49 PM

"Since jobs in the Financial Services make up less than 10% of jobs in the city..."

You're counting heads. Count income (retroactively, that is).

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 5, 2009 5:56 PM

Yes, they make up 25% of the city's income. I realize that.

But we aren't talking about that. We are talking about heads.

Sam said:

"What attracted people to NYC over the past twenty years has been the ridiculously lucrative job offerings on Wall Street, Madison Avenue, etc."


That has nothing to do with how much income these people make when referring to why they moved here. He basically said that's why people moved here.

I'm saying, that's why a very few minority of people moved here. Certainly not all.

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 6:00 PM

I go to Miami Beach all the time, I own a condo there. It is gorgeous. Maybe not if your idea of gorgeous is Billyburg, but what most adult Americans would consider gorgeous. The Beaches have really benefitted from a very enlightened conservation program. The historic buildings have been lovingly restored and are knock-your-socks-off stunning, there is no air pollution or water pollution of any kind. I know New Yorkers can't admit that any place else is nice, especially a warm breezy paradise like Miami Beach, but it's true. The other surprise is that NY is hotter in summer that Miami Beach where the trade winds keep things balmy. Nothing is worse than NY in the summer, it is just a gross-out.
I would not be at all surprised if fifty years from now, Miami is more like New York, and New York is more like Buffalo. Miami is poised to be the international banking, insurance, and entertainment center for the Americas and Europe. Its potential is breathtaking.

Posted by: sam at February 5, 2009 7:28 PM

one huge difference between NY and other place in america is the wealth of job opportunities and a huge entrepreneurial spirit and acceptance of risk takers. it's still a place where you can come and do very very well in a short amount of time in jobs that aren't even available in other cities (sort of like how LA owns the movie biz). in today's market the growing marketing of websites alone will continue to attract many many people. you cannot snap your fingers and make the same industry available in denver for instance.

Posted by: wine lover at February 5, 2009 7:55 PM

I think a lot of places in the U.S. outside of NYC are beautiful:

San Francisco
Portland, Oregon
Newport and Laguna, CA
Hilton Head, SC
Charleston, SC
Coast of Maine

And the list goes on and on. This is a very beautiful country.

Miami does not rank in the top 20 for me. Nor top 50. No where in Florida does.

I think Miami is a pit. Every person I know who's been there thought it was a dump. I was just talking at dinner the other day with two friends who are doctors who went recently for the first time and they were absolutely horrified with how "3rd world" they thought Miami was. Another friend was there for a business trip not long ago and her words about Miami included, "desolate and devoid of culture" as well as a few unsavory words about the people she met while there.

Takes a little more than a nice beach to entice me.

There are gorgeous beaches in Sandy Hook, NJ, Montauk, Bethany Beach, DE, Corolla NC that I'd rather go to in a second. And the added benefit is that they aren't located in Florida.

One of the most culturally backwards state in the union.

I see very little to suggest Miami is the new NYC.

And for the record, Sam I don't think Billyburg is beautiful at all. I live in a co-op brownstone in Park Slope. You know Park Slope...right?

p.s. With Miami smack dab in the center of one of the most active hurricane patterns in North America, I'm glad you aren't in charge of deciding which city should be the new world capital in the U.S.

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 7:59 PM

this should have been the quote of the day.

"By now, it's clear to everyone that we have inherited an economic crisis as deep and dire as any since the days of the Great Depression. Millions of jobs that Americans relied on just a year ago are gone; millions more of the nest eggs families worked so hard to build have vanished. People everywhere are worried about what tomorrow will bring."

- Barack Obama, February 4, 2009

Posted by: xander at February 5, 2009 8:21 PM

To me, these statistics do not lead me to believe that Miami is on the verge of greatness:

MIAMI
The median income for a household in the city was $23,483, and the median income for a family was $27,225. Males had a median income of $24,090 versus $20,115 for females. The per capita income for the city was $15,128. About 23.5% of families and 28.5% of the population were below the poverty line, including 38.2% of those under age 18 and 29.3% of those age 65 or over.


Almost 40% of those under 18 under the poverty level??

For comparison's sake, NYC'S median income is $48,631 and our poverty rate is 18.5% and 27.3% for children.

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 8:25 PM

Xander,

No offense, but why should that be quote of the day?

So the comment thread can read, "DUH" over and over?

Seems quotes of the day are supposed to be a bit more thought provoking, and not an obvious fact.

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 8:32 PM

11217,

No offense, but why are you so shrill?

You must subscribe to the "I scream the loudest, therefore I am right" school of thought. Your posts, which take up about 30% of every thread, are truly thought-provoking.

And thanks for setting the standards for QOTDs--you've done a great service to this site.


Posted by: nyc87 at February 5, 2009 8:55 PM

You're so right, nyc87....and I'll leave you with one of your own more enjoyable quotes to show you what the phrase "pot calling the kettle black means"

"Stop whining about featuring more affordable houses. This blog is mainly about BROWNSTONES, and the nice brownstones in Brooklyn, the ones worth discussing, are usually priced over $1 million--at least for now. Start your own blog if you want to discuss any old house."

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 9:03 PM

11217,
because he said depression and because others are saying it now and hinting at the possibilities. Because I don't think where we are has sunk in with many people yet. Because TARP didn't bring back the stock market and the stimulus bill may not fix anything. And this has ramifications for how all of us will spend the money we had, have, will have, or don't have, in the next few years (or decade?).

I guess the reason is because if you *really* think about what it implies and really extrapolate it out then it *could* be that the 700K apt is 100K. It could be that you're out of a job. It could be that Mr Brownstoner can't get revenue to run this site anymore because ad sales won't pay his bills (or something). It could be that finance as the engine of the city is done and over with. It could be that the stimulus bill and federal reserve printing press money creation creates a hyperinflation. Who knows but the end result is that it will get better but only after a huge amount of hurt.


But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe team bulls wins and unless I get in the market today, I'm priced out forever.

Posted by: xander at February 5, 2009 9:11 PM

He didn't say we are in a Depression.

He said that these are the worst times SINCE the Great Depression.

That's how I read it, anyway.

The WORST forecast for unemployment I've heard so far is 10% by 2011 or 2012. While horrible (and a worst case scenario as far as I've heard) that really doesn't compare to the 25% during the Great Depression.

Listen, I don't predict the future, but I simply don't think the world is coming to an end like you (and others) seem to.

I think it's going to be a few years of a really bad economy.

And then people will figure out how to make it improve.

Certainly the people on this blog who do nothing but predict doom and gloom day after day without ever offering a single suggestion or thought on how to fix it aren't going to be part of the solution. You all have one track brains...the world is over and there ain't nothin' you can do about it.

Sorry, but that's just not how I like to think.

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 9:24 PM

11217, you do not have to post over and over, we get it, you don't like Miami and neither do your friends, of which you have many, I'm sure. I doubt you even know how to drive so no, you should not leave NYC. Ever. Of course when people say things like "Miami is Third World" what they mean is that there are a lot of Latinos. And because they are bigots, they think that is lousy. The Latins have actually reinvigorated Miami and unlike NY where they are seen as only the lower class, in Miami, they are in every class level and it is a much more, what's the word? diverse city than NY, which gives a lot of lip service to "diversity" but is still in lockdown old-boy Ivy league mode. Please do not follow up this post with eight consecutive ranting posts. I will not read them, I am logging off. Buh Bye,

Posted by: sam at February 5, 2009 9:27 PM

I don't think 3rd world has anything whatsoever to do with Latinos.

No clue why you'd even suggest it, actually.

Posted by: 11217 at February 5, 2009 9:50 PM

Sorry, 11217, I don't see the analogy. If anything, it reinforces what I was saying. Whiners, of which you are one, need not read this blog if they don't the content. Who are you to lay out, in a snarky three sentences no less, what standards the QOTD should adhere to? Seriously? It smacked of immaturity and totally random aggression. I mean, really, there are enough of your posts to scroll past on every thread. Do you have a compulsion? Or do you just *have* to have the last word every time? It's kind of pathological.

Posted by: nyc87 at February 5, 2009 9:54 PM

"And then people will figure out how to make it improve."

So, 11217, your entire outlook is based on blind optimism. Or, more succinctly, nothing at all.

Things will get worse. The statistics of the great depression were calculated differently, applied to a different reality, and do not apply to our day. If you really want to understand the predicament we are in, do the grunt(statistical) work. More women in the workforce, more underemployed, more temporary and contract workers. Unemployment is far worse than it looks. Further, The government is encouraging the exact behavior that got us in trouble: foolish lending.

Not that the OP is correct. But you, sir or madam, are not.

Posted by: actually works in finance at February 5, 2009 10:42 PM

11217, I didn't say the world is ending. Perhaps this is your worry?

I think you should at least take a look at shadowstats which posts what the *real* unmanipulated unemployment figures are determined. These figures strip out government heuristics, statistical model changes, and other tricks.

As you said before "The WORST forecast for unemployment I've heard so far is 10% by 2011 or 2012. While horrible (and a worst case scenario as far as I've heard) that really doesn't compare to the 25% during the Great Depression."

According to shadowstats, If you count underemployed, the discourage who stopped looking, and more we're already between 13 and 17 percent.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

By the way, you're probably saying that i'm a tinfoil on the head kook, but I got this site after reading an article on money.com (hardly anything other than mainstream).
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/09/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

Second, you don't know me, I have never posted on this site before today. So you're statement that "you (and others) seem to" think the world is coming to an end actually points to either your inability to comprehend the written word or might point to your inability to grasp other people's reasoning that conflicts with your worldview.

Either way, enjoy

Posted by: xander at February 5, 2009 10:48 PM

Courtesy of 11217:

"Has anyone actually BEEN to Miami? I wouldn't live there if you paid ME 700,000k!"

"I didn't realize there was such a thing when referring to Miami proper. It all looked like a pit to me."

Quite obnoxious. And closed-minded. Not to mention downright rude. Indicative of a provincial mind that needs constant validation of his/her decisions in life by putting others down. I am a longtime reader, first time poster, and a lifelong New Yorker (third generation). I do not feel the need to trashtalk other cities just to prove that I love NYC above all.

Sam, I agree with you 100%. Miami is indeed very beautiful. I treasure my getaways to the lovely beaches in the area. And the people are just wonderful. I have made so many good friends over the past 20 years.

NYC is not immune to our economic crisis; it's just taking longer to get here. Xander and Finance guy/gal above are right.

-nyny

Posted by: nyny at February 5, 2009 11:27 PM

I overlooked 11217's other post on Miami. She/he has posted so many times that I just missed it. 11217 you are truly insufferable. And ignorant.

"I think Miami is a pit. Every person I know who's been there thought it was a dump. I was just talking at dinner the other day with two friends who are doctors who went recently for the first time and they were absolutely horrified with how "3rd world" they thought Miami was. Another friend was there for a business trip not long ago and her words about Miami included, "desolate and devoid of culture" as well as a few unsavory words about the people she met while there."
...

"There are gorgeous beaches in Sandy Hook, NJ, Montauk, Bethany Beach, DE, Corolla NC that I'd rather go to in a second. And the added benefit is that they aren't located in Florida.

One of the most culturally backwards state in the union."

And yes, 11217, it's quite obvious you were referring to the Hispanic demographic of the city when you said "3rd World." Please. Your friends sound lovely. I'm embarrassed for you. And I think you give the North Slope a bad name by using its zip code as your handle.

-nyny

Posted by: nyny at February 5, 2009 11:44 PM

"We are talking about heads."

Ultimately, you're talking about home prices. That's what the tread from which this QOTD came.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 6, 2009 9:10 AM

It's not a question of a pure headcount --it's not even how much money Wall Street made --it's the multiplier effect of that money moving throughout, and sustaining, the city's economy. Team Bull argues from an almost purely affective logic --how it's so indispensable to human goodness to live in Brownstone Brooklyn --then assigns that experience a monetary value, by way of hoping we don't notice the basic reality--that the money is gone. It's gone. It will take some time to get used to the idea that money is scarce. If Team Bear is revolted by you, consider, that what money there is currently buying up Brownstone Brooklyn was essentially looted from the Treasury.

Furthermore, the affective argument is naive. The balance of good qualities and bad qualities to urban living could (easily) tip again; a flight to suburbs or rural living is not out of the question. And yet we insist on taking seriously the prognostications of people whose wealth is largely tied up (tied down) to Brooklyn real estate?

Posted by: Whuh at February 6, 2009 9:25 AM

Anyone that thinks that NY real estate is in a similar position to that of Florida needs to pick up the latest issue of The New Yorker.

Posted by: eh at February 6, 2009 10:35 AM

In addition to the financial structure, credit, and macroeconomic issues plaguing the entire nation, Miami has a huge oversupply of housing. Houston (there's a lot about Houston on Brownstoner today!) was in a similar place when its local economy came grinding to a halt in the 1980s. Property values quickly dropped 50%+, and parts of the city looked like ghost towns, with grass growing in freshly-laid parking lots.

NYC does NOT have a housing oversupply. Everything I've read has said that we still face a housing undersupply. Furthermore, whether or not NYC is a nice place to live, it's the locus of many key industries. So, people have to live here -- or near here. Shorter commutes are always more desirable.

We're in for it, like the rest of the nation, but we have certain cushions. Still, hold onto your hat. Cushioned or not, it's going to be a wild ride.

Posted by: Brooklyn Chicken at February 6, 2009 11:53 AM

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