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February 17, 2009

How Bad Could It Get?

"Mr. [John Tepper] Marlin (former Chief Economist for the City Comptroller's Office) expects that there will be more defaults on buildings as condominium and co-op owners fail to pay their common charges, and also more sales of foreclosed properties. Rents will continue to dip. There will be longer lines at the grocery store, because fewer people will eat out. And he worries about unrest, citing hard-hit Iceland as a recent example. “I’m concerned about people being so desperate that they lose the fear of losing their own lives and they become so desperate that they’re willing to endanger other people’s lives,” he said." — NY Times

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Henny Penny? Is that you?

Posted by: CHMomma at February 17, 2009 10:21 AM

How long would the lines get at the PS Food Coop???

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 10:24 AM

His vision is not a stretch, in my opinion.

Posted by: stoep2conquer at February 17, 2009 10:28 AM

drama queen

Posted by: blackstoner at February 17, 2009 10:32 AM

crime can never be as bad as it was in the 70s for the simple fact that technology such as the internet and cell phones and ipods keep a lot of antsy teenage thugs busy with themselves. they are too busy on myspace (im being SO serious about this btw) posting booty pics and trash talking each other, that there's no time for actual crime on the streets.

*rob*

Posted by: PitbullNYC at February 17, 2009 10:36 AM

Actually rob, if you read the other post, its precisely those things (cell phones and ipods) for which their theft is raising the crime statistics.

We all do our part trash talking people here so that we're not out on the street "endangering other people's lives."

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 10:39 AM

ETA - also if there was some kind of "everybody gets an ipod, cell phone, and laptop program" there be an all time record almost zero level of crime. send some stimulus dollars to that program i've envisioned and you'll see a much nicer society with almost zero crime. (well burglary and mugging type crime i guess). oh and all children ages 11 - 17 can get an allowance of 50 dollars a week. BUT they have to work for it by doing something like polishing an old lady's fingernails or something. im telling you it would work!

*r*

Posted by: PitbullNYC at February 17, 2009 10:40 AM

Soylent Green is people.

Posted by: dylanfan at February 17, 2009 10:44 AM

and i'm concerned about out-of-work economists being so desperate that they resort to fear-mongering hyperbole as a way of getting quotes in the new york times.

Posted by: i disagree at February 17, 2009 10:50 AM

THANK you, people! To crib an old Catholic phrase, the "sense of the faithful" seems to be carrying the day here. Is it just me, or is the single biggest difference in this current economic downturn the degree of DOOMSAYING abroad in the media?! I came of age in this town in the late 70s (we posted the FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD headline in our journalism classroom, right next to SAM SLEEPS), (that's "Son of Sam" for you young'uns). Despite the apocalyptic crap going on, the city was vibrating with life and cultural energy; I went to the Met four times a weekend doing SRO for the ballet and opera for $5 a ticket, haunted revival houses for old movies and vintage dives on St. Marks for old clothes, and walked through the Lower East Side every day, stepping over winos and full of excitement for the future. Flash forward to 1986: My husband and I are the (proud?) new owners of a ruined Flatbush boarding house. We survive on Jamaican meat patties, step over crack vials on our way to the subway, spend our last dime on an alarm system, and are full of excitement for the future. Now it's 2001; everything is f*cked up and terrifying, and the last thing on anyone's mind to my recollection was the economy; my husband's job is to publicize a major museum, and it's virtually empty for months as people stay home smelling smoke and fearing anthrax, but we don't care because we're ALIVE.
And now it's the End of the World as We Know It, because lots of Wall Street Tycoons (and more ordinary folk) are out of work, and million-dollar apartments are only selling for $750K, and there are fewer fancy restaurant meals getting eaten and Birkin bags getting bought. Well, yesterday we spent the Apocalypse in Ikea, where we ate meatballs with our daughter and bought an $11 bedspread and (for her, since she's starting high school in the fall) a cool $25 lamp. There was a very long line for the checkout--for the meatballs and for the merch--and everyone looked happy and functional, just like the much-mocked Swedish furniture, and Red Hook as always amazed us with its transformation. And I felt, after several hours away from the goddamned mass media and their yawps of doom, guess what? Excited for the future!
I'm beginning to think that guy was right, the one who said we have nothing to fear but fear itself...

Posted by: Brenda from Flatbush at February 17, 2009 11:09 AM

Ikea meatballs = Soylent Green.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at February 17, 2009 11:10 AM

Brenda....the media has a lot to do with it. It's too bad really.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 11:11 AM

The problem with direct comparisons with the past is that they just don't work. Time and progress have not been frozen.

To say we will be living in times just like the Depression, is to forget we have an entire social network in place to help people - a direct result of the Depression. We are not the same people, either. We are better educated, more worldly, more accepting of other peoples, and civil rights are a reality. We have better technology, more advanced media, and better transportation. As an educated black woman during the 30's, the best I could hope to be is a teacher in a segregated school, perhaps a doctor or lawyer, but again, only in my community. Now, I can be whatever I choose, wherever I choose. The options for most people are much greater. Even those out of work have at least an opportunity for retraining, that did not exist back then.

Also, as has been pointed out, we are not in the same times here in NYC, as in the 70's, when crime reached its heights. Again, we have (hopefully) learned from the past, we have better tech to combat crime, more police, less police corruption, more minority cops, a more integrated and equal society and neighborhoods. That's not to say there aren't plenty of problems, many the same as before, specifically underclass poverty, but hopefully we are not revisiting those days, even as things get worse.

Desperation, as defined by the author, is a tad overwrought. We have no idea what real desperation is. Try living in a refugee camp, or in Darfur, or a favela. That's desperation.

Posted by: Montrose Morris at February 17, 2009 11:17 AM

But where would the media be if they didn't have those attention-grabbing, doomsday headlines to sell their stories? I mean, how good is a journalist who uses fear instead of information for his article?

what upsets me so much is that instead of talking about all the things that are going on that actually help, it's so much easier to write an all is death and destruction piece because with hype a little goes a long way, and research is too much work.

No wonder newspapers are in trouble. After awhile you have to tune them out just to stay sane. (Too late for me- the rest of you save yourselves!)

Posted by: bxgrl at February 17, 2009 11:32 AM

I smell Napalm..... Last night in the F/X Markets something blew up in Asia! The Dollar/ Yen Dollar/ Other Currencies went Parabolic!!!! The Fed had to open swap lines and start intervention! All of Eastern Europe is in Financial Red Alert. That's why the markets suck World Wide. The funny thing about this event was it was not on CNBC or Bloomberg and that's very scary!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end..

Posted by: Return of The What at February 17, 2009 11:35 AM

Whatever your worse case scenarios are, it'll be worse. Just like the "media" pumped up your false hopes on the way up, heavy doses of reality on the way down. Why else would people be interested in blogs such as this one? $$$$$$$$$$$$$. Like more than 3 people really give a s*hit about details in the crevice of a house...

Posted by: cornerbodega at February 17, 2009 11:35 AM

economists are never wrong.
and the NYTimes cares deeply about the well being of its readers.

Posted by: blackstoner at February 17, 2009 11:37 AM

What....the dollar is strengthening. Remember, just because something moves dramatically doesn't mean its a bad thing.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 11:40 AM

looks like the remaining cheerleaders now resorting to "newspapers, economists are full of s*hit" approach to denial...

Posted by: cornerbodega at February 17, 2009 11:41 AM

Or just Last Week's Biggest Sales, cornerbodega.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 11:45 AM

Cornerbodega, I have yet to understand why you frequent this blog. You have no interest in architecture, houses, neighborhoods or history, and offer nothing positive in terms of finance, homebuying or quality of life. Newspapers aren't the only things full of it here.

More than three people do care about the details in the crevices of houses. That's what built this blog, and a major part of what keeps it going.

Posted by: Montrose Morris at February 17, 2009 11:47 AM

Wonder why Brownstoner chose to quote only the most dire forecast...

Posted by: fsrg at February 17, 2009 12:00 PM

Brenda - Loved your post. You are 100% dead on. The media loves to put a spin on things and pump fear into the public.

Posted by: landlord at February 17, 2009 12:02 PM

What....the dollar is strengthening. Remember, just because something moves dramatically doesn't mean its a bad thing.

Dave Aisa and Europe went Tango Uniform! Plus with the events in Japan something is going on. I think on the F/X Markets someone blew up and need dollars real bad. Look at the overnight action, this is real bad!!!!!

I SMELL NAPALM!!!!!!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at February 17, 2009 12:07 PM

dibs you're still you're speculative ghetto investment? Do you have no shame?

Posted by: cornerbodega at February 17, 2009 12:13 PM

"Cornerbodega, I have yet to understand why you frequent this blog. You have no interest in architecture, houses, neighborhoods or history, and offer nothing positive in terms of finance, homebuying or quality of life. Newspapers aren't the only things full of it here.

More than three people do care about the details in the crevices of houses. That's what built this blog, and a major part of what keeps it going."

don't kid yourself, this blog gained its following with people thinking $$$$$$ in bk real estate. If you haven't realized this by now you need help...

Posted by: cornerbodega at February 17, 2009 12:15 PM

I have got a new addition to my "Tropic Thunder" vocabulary of doom, thanks to our resident schizo-apocalyptic:

'GOIN' PARABOLIC!'

Posted by: Brenda from Flatbush at February 17, 2009 12:18 PM

"But where would the media be if they didn't have those attention-grabbing, doomsday headlines to sell their stories?"

The media publishes these sorts of stories because people read them more than other types of stories. Plain and simple. It's a business, above all. Take it from me - most journalists try to stick to their principles and do good work. However their publications need to STAY IN BUSINESS for them to have jobs, and BAD news sells.

"No wonder newspapers are in trouble."

The newspapers aren't in trouble because of the types of stories they're writing. The newspapers are in trouble because technology changed too rapidly for newspaper owners to adjust, their revenues were DRAMATICALLY slashed, and there's no end in sight.

"The media loves to put a spin on things and pump fear into the public."

Because the public responds. The posts on this blog are an example.

There's an old saying you all should remember when it comes to all media, everywhere: You can't believe everything you read in the newspaper.

Posted by: East New York at February 17, 2009 12:37 PM

"How Bad Could It Get?"

If you have to keep asking...

"There will be longer lines at the grocery store, because fewer people will eat out."

That trek to Fairway is worth it.

"And he worries about unrest, citing hard-hit Iceland as a recent example."

But people will still prefer Brooklyn over Manhattan. RRRRRRRRIIIIIIIIGGGHHHT!!! (curtesy of The What).

"The funny thing about this event was it was not on CNBC or Bloomberg and that's very scary!"

Sure wasn't. I was all over them during breakfast. Just a mention of futures "not looking good". Sneaky.

"Whatever your worse case scenarios are, it'll be worse."

Things are always worse than what they seem in a bear market. Nice job herding the sheep, main stream media (CNBC and the like).

Maplewood was right. I am optimistic. DOW and SP now respectively flirting with 7,000 and 700. Ongoing fraud revelations, now Stanford Cos.

But nevermind, homeshoppers. Buy that 1,000 SF 2BR/2BA for $1/2 mil and 15' wide brownstone caboose in Clinton Hill for $1M+. You can't loose.

***Sign contract for twice peak comps with no contingencies***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 17, 2009 1:02 PM

"The media loves to put a spin on things and pump fear into the public."

That's only after we've reached bottom. On the way to the bottom, or through the overshoot, they notoriously lag behind reality.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 17, 2009 1:05 PM

You are in denial if you don't think this is going to get desperate. What don't you understand about bank solvency? You may have been on vacation yesterday but Japan wasn't. So while you are all arguing about what neighborhood is better this is going to crash in a big way.

Posted by: oldrte10 at February 17, 2009 1:19 PM

...but the hand of central bank intervention will whack that DJIA back up to near 8,000 come 3:59pm. Guaranteed.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 17, 2009 1:33 PM

"...but the hand of central bank intervention will whack that DJIA back up to near 8,000 come 3:59pm. Guaranteed."

Russia halted the stock exchange and everything else is on Meltdown alert!

Dave is very busy now! This Asshead was shorting the Ten Year Treasuries and got caught offsides!!! Plus plenty of trades are Blowing up in people faces and they have to scramble to get out!

The What (Taste the Rainbow)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at February 17, 2009 1:43 PM

"Dave is very busy now!"

ROTFLMMAO!!!

"This Asshead was shorting the Ten Year Treasuries and got caught offsides!!!"

ROTFLMMAO!!!

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 17, 2009 2:06 PM

Russian Stocks Tumble as Economic Outlook Worsens, Oil Declines

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avr8z3GafvpM&refer=home

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Russian stocks fell the most in three months, triggering trading halts in the two largest bourses, as the country cut its economic forecast and oil prices declined.

We are in RED ALERT!!!!!

Hey BHO have you noticed that Dave is M.I.A and I don't mean "Paper Planes" missing!

Right now his Hedge Fund got caught Offsides in some big assed trade and trying to liquidate their positions right now but this Asshead will come back and say "every thing is OK", NOT!!!

Oh where are the other Asshats at??? Where are you???!!!! I got a I-Beam waiting for you and I smell napalm!!!!

The What (Obama buy me a pony)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at February 17, 2009 2:25 PM

"dibs you're still you're speculative ghetto investment?"

cornholedinthebodega....what the hell does that mean????

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 2:29 PM

"dibs you're still you're speculative ghetto investment?"

cornholedinthebodega....what the hell does that mean????

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 2:30 PM

Sorry assheads...we are still long 10 & 30 year treasuries. You know not of what you speak.

Why are all the Team bear Asshats on this threrad and not "Last Weeks Biggest Sales"???????????????????????????????????????????

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 2:31 PM

In case anyone is taking a head count, I care deeply about the crevices in old houses and I have very little money, never did. I wouldn't say I'm optimistic, but I love NYC

Posted by: WTbound at February 17, 2009 2:45 PM

Hey BHO have you noticed that Dave is M.I.A and I don't mean "Paper Planes" missing!

Right now his Hedge Fund got caught Offsides in some big assed trade and trying to liquidate their positions right now but this Asshead will come back and say "every thing is OK", NOT!!!

I was at lunch at the Rainbow Room, What.

I'm interested in your take on the currencies. You don't seem to understand dollar strength. Buy YCS.

You and cornerbodega should get together and start a hedge fund... Tweedle Dumb and Dumber Partners, LLC.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 2:48 PM

Can't you understand that crime and back in the 70s scenarios have nothing to do with fair (see non-inflated) real estate?

Independently of whether there will be crackheads, and abandoned park slope brownstones, the bubble is over and buying anything at the prices posted by the brownstoner is foolish.

Posted by: MaplewoodGuy at February 17, 2009 3:07 PM

Better tell that to all the buyers, MaplewoodGuy. See last weeek's biggest sales^^^^^^^^^^^

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 3:10 PM

"I was at lunch at the Rainbow Room, What."

Lunch is for wimps.

***Bid half off dave's comp***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 17, 2009 3:19 PM

Far be it from me to give the What ammo, but the Rainbow Room isn't open for lunch.

Posted by: greenwood at February 17, 2009 3:19 PM

ENY- I do understand why journalists write what they do- but I still believe in fair and balanced reporting- something which we haven't seen in a very long time. I think the media takes too much on itself- they're spinmeisters, not reporters. Add in the influence of the internet, bloggers, etc- all we've got is a mass of information, unfiltered and often unchecked for facts.

I think people are hungry for real news not shrieks of doomsday- what good is that? Do they expect us to all cut our throats? Of course the pubic responds- but they owuld respond to stuff besides just doom and gloom. In fact they'd be thrilled to read some positive news for a change.

I admit to a bit of hyperbole about why newspapers are in trouble- but my point basically is still the same. How about writing more about solutions instead of only problems?

Posted by: bxgrl at February 17, 2009 3:26 PM

I was just there greenwood. I usually go once a week. It's open for member lunch.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 3:32 PM

BHO...lunch is for those of us who can afford it.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 3:36 PM

"...but the hand of central bank intervention will whack that DJIA back up to near 8,000 come 3:59pm. Guaranteed."

Free lunch at the Rainbow Room on me. RSVP with dave.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 17, 2009 4:28 PM

Who the hell said that??? Certainly wasn't me.

You low lives know how to dress for the RR???

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 17, 2009 4:37 PM

Well today is been very crazy with the events in Asia and Eastern Europe, i wonder how long we have before everything Blows Up. I thought we would get 100 days in Obama's Administration without any problems but I was wrong.

The best thing of all is the Retards are STILL in denial about the collapse of the Mutant Asset Bubble. Guys (Team Loon or Bear) just relax. This thing is going to get good.

I came across this story last night and got a Hard On! I wish Dave mother was around.

Home buyers to be dinged with new fees

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/02/15/RE3F15Q74A.DTL

Under Fannie's and Freddie's new guidelines, even applicants who assumed their FICO scores would get them favorable rates will be charged more unless they can come up with down payments of 30 percent or higher. For example, a buyer with a 699 FICO score who can make a down payment of 25 percent will now get hit with a 1.5 percent "delivery" fee at closing under the new guidelines.

Yep you read that right 30%!!!!! Now I wonder How many Retards have a 30% down payment??? Plus if a Brownstone cost about 800k
, who in the hell is going to put down 320k in this economic environment????!!

Sit back and relax. The retards are dead and they don't know it yet...

The What (Obama Obama Save Us!!)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at February 17, 2009 5:07 PM

"Who the hell said that??? Certainly wasn't me."

It was me at 1:33, dave, my paranoia of the PWGOFM (aka Plunge Protection Team).

"...even applicants who assumed their FICO scores would get them favorable rates will be charged more unless they can come up with down payments of 30 percent or higher..."

BID </= (CASH DOWN)/0.3

Sorry sellers. Tightening lending standards are on your dime.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 17, 2009 5:53 PM

Rents will become affordable! Say farewell to 21200 dollars a month
Homes will be buyable again! Kiss your million dollar dondo goodbye
Fruits and Vegetables will be sold at affordable prices! 1.99 for tomatoes is too much.
The dollar is growing strong. No more tourists buying our Chinese products.

Posted by: hannible at February 17, 2009 7:25 PM

And we all get a pony!

Posted by: SnarkSlope at February 17, 2009 8:27 PM

"And we all get a pony!"

No Asshead, you get a Baseball bat smashed upside your head then shoved up you Ass!

"Rents will become affordable! Say farewell to 21200 dollars a month
Homes will be buyable again! Kiss your million dollar dondo goodbye
Fruits and Vegetables will be sold at affordable prices! 1.99 for tomatoes is too much."

Hey Hannible You will get a lick out of this story..

When the Feathers Really Fly

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/nyregion/thecity/15chic.html?_r=3&scp=1&sq=greenpoint&st=cse

And the follow up on diehipster.com

http://diehipster.com/

"The thought of a woman with an octopus tattoo on her arm, moving with her hipster husband, to a working class neighborhood and paying over 1/2 a million for an apartment and complaining about ANYTHING, is mind boggling and aggrevating. To top it off, they didnt know there was a fecking slaughter house next door???"

Team Bear: Have a drink and make a toast. Team Bull next stop is the Slaughter House! Imagine paying 699k for a 2 Bedroom Apartment?? ROTFLMMFAO, How retarded is that??!!

The What (Obama is going to buy me a Pitbull so I can sic on Brownstoner's Dog..)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at February 17, 2009 9:28 PM

Thanks returnofthewhat. I read it. I agree with you. You can't come into a neighborhood and expect to change it with your money. All these high class sweet talking real estate hippies that over talk the buyers into these places should wind up like those chickens in the cages. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese lady buys all those condos for a song after all those subprime buyers foreclose.

Posted by: hannible at February 17, 2009 10:11 PM

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February 17, 2009

How Bad Could It Get?

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