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February 25, 2009
Bernanke: Recession Could End in 2009
"This outlook for economic activity is subject to considerable uncertainty, and I believe that, overall, the downside risks probably outweigh those on the upside...If actions taken by the Administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability--and only if that is the case, in my view--there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery." Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
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Four threads today and nary a thing on brownstones, cornices, kitchens, facades, stoops or even strollers.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 25, 2009 9:34 AM
If Bernanke is wrong I'll be on my stoop with my shotgun protecting my facade and cornices while my wife is in the kitchen with the stroller preparing a meal.
How's that dave? Better? ;)
Posted by: christopher at February 25, 2009 9:45 AM
Is this the same Bernanke that said our economy was sound and that the value of homes was going to stabalize? Is this the same genius who lowered interest rates so "hippie cheap home flipping scum" could still reamin in "their" MCMansions.
Posted by: hannible at February 25, 2009 10:55 AM
"This outlook for economic activity is subject to considerable uncertainty"
This is news?
Posted by: East New York at February 25, 2009 11:06 AM
Sadly, as I said before, a war with China will pull the US out of this depression. The Renewed Deal, like its original, will be futile.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 25, 2009 11:23 AM
"Four threads today and nary a thing on brownstones, cornices, kitchens, facades, stoops or even strollers."
Face the music, dave. Take your medicine.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 25, 2009 11:24 AM
BHO...What's Plan B in case you are never able to afford that brownstone?????
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 25, 2009 11:26 AM
Recession could end in 2009 and the woodchuck could learn swahili.
Posted by: wasder at February 25, 2009 12:40 PM
Is there some way I could never see one of Brownstones Half Off's posts again?
I mean, other than leaving Brownstoner.
Oh, and while I'm not optimistic about the economy picking up, once the year v. year comparisons are being made with the bad 3Q 08 numbers and the horrible 4Q 08 numbers some companies will start looking like their performance is improving.
2Q 08 numbers were bumped up from the rebate checks, so 2Q08 v. 2Q09 is going to look unpleasant.
Posted by: northsloperenter at February 25, 2009 1:12 PM
Northslope--you ask the question that is on many people's lips. The unfortunate answer would appear to be no.
Posted by: wasder at February 25, 2009 1:39 PM
"BHO...What's Plan B in case you are never able to afford that brownstone?????"
Not applicable. I can afford it now. Why catch a falling knife?
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 25, 2009 2:07 PM
"Why catch a falling knife?"
No reason, other than it would be lots of fun to watch you try.
Posted by: Biff Champion at February 25, 2009 2:50 PM
"I can afford it now." This is one quote I will keep in my back pocket.
Posted by: wasder at February 25, 2009 2:59 PM
ROTFLMMFAO, BHO. Yes, that line "I can afford it now" will come back to haunt you!!!!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 25, 2009 3:12 PM
Obama and his wife, both Harvard educated, couldn't even pay off their own college debt until Obama struck it rich by becoming the poster boy for the Democratic party and subsequently selling a zillion copies of his biography.
To presume that his shotgun style pork barrel government spending will stop this recession is asinine. Obama has absolutely ZERO understanding of the the value of money, which in my opinion is much more dangerous than his comprehension of basic economics.
No government in the history of the world has successfully run a "planned economy" and there's no way in hell that Obama will succeed either.
The free market works. Let the banks fail. Let failing companies fail. Until folks have faith once again in the United States as the bastion of world capitalism, our economy is doomed.
President Obama has been worse than I could ever have imagined. Bush was just an imbecile. Obama acts as if he's on a personal mission to destroy the free market and bankrupt the United States in the meantime.
Posted by: IronBalls at February 25, 2009 3:32 PM
"Obama has absolutely ZERO understanding of the the value of money, which in my opinion is much more dangerous than his comprehension of basic economics."
Of course "Iron Balls" is naturally far more astute than the President, understands the economy and money far better, and has the solution to all of the country's troubles. I guess we should have just nominated and elected "Iron Balls." Oh yeah, I forgot - no one of any importance knows "Iron Balls" from a hole in the ground. Zzzzzz.....
Posted by: East New York at February 25, 2009 3:40 PM
Yes but Iron Balls has Larry Summers et al advising him. So he must know what he's talking about.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 25, 2009 3:44 PM
It sounds like he's being advised by Bobby Jindal, and his arguments make about as much sense.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKyeCP.LGe5s&refer=home
Posted by: East New York at February 25, 2009 3:52 PM
Nobody, including myself, knows how to "fix" our economy because it doesn't need "fixing". It just needs to be allowed to function freely. . . aka minimal government intervention in business. What do economists know anyways? If they're so smart, why didn't these great economists band together to raise an alarm and stop this situation from happening in the first place?
Obviously the stock market agrees with me, and you folks clinging to your "worship the dirt Obama walks on" mentality, will change your tune when the Dow hits 4000, you can't pay your rent, and you can't find a decent job because they've all moved overseas where the taxes are half as much.
Posted by: IronBalls at February 25, 2009 3:56 PM
"It just needs to be allowed to function freely. . . aka minimal government intervention in business."
Yeah...deregulation has worked so wonderfully up to this point.
"What do economists know anyways?"
Oh much, much less than you do, "Iron Balls." You're simply an unappreciated and unrecognized financial savant/Republican apologist/anonymous real estate blog poster.
"your "worship the dirt Obama walks on" mentality, will change your tune when the Dow hits 4000, you can't pay your rent, and you can't find a decent job because they've all moved overseas where the taxes are half as much."
You're beginnig to sound like "The What." Slow down, breathe deeply, and take a few quiet moments with your Bill O'Reilly photo collection. It's gonna be OK.
Posted by: East New York at February 25, 2009 4:05 PM
IronBalls will be gone soon. I think Rush comes on pretty soon.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 25, 2009 4:10 PM
"Nobody, including myself, knows how to "fix" our economy because it doesn't need "fixing". It just needs to be allowed to function freely. . . aka minimal government intervention in business"
I don't disagree, but what do you think would have happened had Bush-to-Obama simply let the system work it out? I can imagine the baying for blood of people screaming for the government to "do something," no? Also easily imagined is severe social unrest had the economy simply been allowed to drop off a cliff. I'm against all bailouts,etc., but have to admit that this process has at least given the public the time to grasp the enormity of "what's happening." Just ruminating.
So keep those printing presses running fellas! Since the US is already on, what it's 3rd currency?, it may not matter anyway.
Posted by: bridges at February 25, 2009 4:26 PM
East New York,
Obviously regulation is needed -- especially bank regulation.
But enhanced regulation is one thing. Putting our grandchildren into debt in order to burn through hundreds of billions of dollars with the hope of stimulating the economy is beyond stupid -- it's evil. It won't work. It's pure political pandering. And it's the worst possible time to be doing it.
Oh wait, I forgot Obama has a great solution to the ballooning deficit -- tax the wealthy more! That'll sure create jobs Ummmm, too bad they'll be outside this country's borders.
As you point out, I'm not famous or well known, but what difference does that make?
I'm a self employed business person with business interests in the US. It's folks like me who pay big taxes and employ folks like you.
I'd say my opinion is very very important.
Posted by: IronBalls at February 25, 2009 4:27 PM
Bridges,
Obama and his team could have come up with smart new financial regulatory laws instead of using the economic tailspin as an excuse to pay for every Democratic political promise ever dreamed up. That's what they could have done.
The stock market has been reeling since the day Obama took office.
As far as the economy is concerned, he's a wrecking ball.
He made an admitted tax cheat Secretary of the Treasury. What kind of confidence does that inspire?
Posted by: IronBalls at February 25, 2009 4:32 PM
IB,
You are entitled to your opinion, but you have not made a convincing argument that allowing the finance industries to go bankrupt would have less of a negative effect in the long term than excessive government borrowing.
Our government, for better or worse, does get to borrow in its own currency, which is an advantage many countries do not have.
On the other hand, a collapse of the finance industry and various debt-dependent companies and the stifling of new business development due to the lack of credit for entrepreneurs would result in a significant reduction in tax revenue.
This lost tax revenue would have to be addressed by either (1) higher taxes, (2) significantly less government spending, or (3) more government borrowing.
#1 and #3 create the same situation you are unhappy with now, and #2 exacerbates the downturn in the economy further.
The only argument I can see in support of your position is that the downturn in the economy would not be particularly severe or prolonged if the government just let the banks go under, but I have seen no one -- no one -- with any economic credentials make that particular argument.
The only other argument is that massive unemployment, homelessness, food doles and tent cities are acceptable outcomes.
Can't see that being particularly good for anyone.
nsr
Posted by: northsloperenter at February 25, 2009 4:39 PM
Northsloperenter,
I appreciate your open-mindedness as opposed to the ultra liberal milkshakes most posters on this site drink. Unfortunately, you believe incorrectly that somehow the failure of a few big Wall Street banks and decrepit car manufacturers is a bad thing for ordinary folks like you and me.
I disagree. Those companies deserve to fail and we'd be better off if they did. Other lenders will appear. It's how free market capitalism works.
Posted by: IronBalls at February 25, 2009 4:55 PM
Ironballs is right, free markets should be just that, free. most economists agree that the New Deal only succeeded in extending the Great Depression. Even FDR's own treasury secretary said that.
First and foremost, he should keep the hell away from healthcare. The HMO's have screwed this area enough. Socialization WILL NOT WORK. The problem with healthcare is one of mis-allocated resources, it can be fixed by applying free market principles effectively to existing resources; the solution is already available in the use of Health Savings Accounts (HSA's), a system which understands that most people between 20-60 are relatively healthy and rewards that without fattenning the wallets of Aetna, US Healthcare, Oxford, GHI executives. Another idea is not paying for the healthcare failures of other nations, i.e. Mexico (mexico basically has one solution for it's poverty problem; export it to America). And yet Mexico has the world's richest man Carlos Slim, that same guy who just bailed out the NYTimes temporarily with a 14% loan.
Healthcare makes up 17% of GDP and Obama wants to take on this issue next? Without even mentioning the very necessary and very important TORT reform that every single doctor you speak to will tell you is at the heart of many of the medical industry problems. Oh yeah, I forgot, Obama and his cronies are all lawyers. no wonder.
Anyway, the economy may come out of this by it's own momentum with some help from the stimulus package, but I suspect it will be in spite of the Washington efforts to govermentalize everything in site, not because of it.
Posted by: Legion at February 25, 2009 4:57 PM
" Putting our grandchildren into debt in order to burn through hundreds of billions of dollars with the hope of stimulating the economy is beyond stupid -- it's evil."
Hmmm...that didn't seem to be a problem when we were running up billions of dollars fighting a pointless and unecessary war. Where was your pathetic whining and hand-wringing then?
"tax the wealthy more!"
Yeah, that's right. Of course, all wealthy people have been paying their fair share of taxes up to this point and would NEVER devise ways to shield their true income. Yeah.
"As you point out, I'm not famous or well known, but what difference does that make?"
Good question. I'll tell you - it puts you in the same category as "The What" - a lone, unqualified, random voice of hysteria baying in the wilderness, like any other nattering nabob of negativism. Your opinions are about as valid as those of the guy on my block who sweeps the sidwewalks for spare change, and are just as likely to be considered (NOT) by this country's leadership.
"I'm a self employed business person with business interests in the US. It's folks like me who pay big taxes and employ folks like you."
Laughable. You don't employ me, or even know me. I sure as hell don't need YOU to maintain my (profitable) living and livelihood. Furthermore, I have been self-employed at various points of my career, still perform consulting work on the side, and could EASILY return to the full-time self-employment paradigm if I were interested. You'll have to do better than that, kid.
"I'd say my opinion is very very important."
Sure it is...to you.
Posted by: East New York at February 25, 2009 5:03 PM
Legion,
I hope you're right about our economy recovering any time soon. I honestly don't see any reason it will.
The US is in the process of developing a centrally planned economy similar to the former Soviet Union's. And with these enormous tax payer debt financed government bailouts, the free market is being crushed to death. Once something like this begins, it's impossible to stop . . . much like a drug addiction.
Posted by: IronBalls at February 25, 2009 5:10 PM
East New York,
I agree my blabbering on this website won't change anything, and neither will yours, of course.
But how do you know I don't employ you?
There's a very small chance, but I just might be your boss.
Posted by: IronBalls at February 25, 2009 5:15 PM
"There's a very small chance, but I just might be your boss."
Then you woke up. But I'll tell you what - if you want to hire me, send me a description of your company with some background information on its capitalization, and perhaps I'll consider it. But I don't come cheap. And there are sevaral other entities that currently pay a fair price for my services, so get in line.
Posted by: East New York at February 25, 2009 5:28 PM
> "most economists agree that the New Deal only succeeded in extending the Great Depression."
Name one - just one - credible economist who believes that.
Posted by: SnarkSlope at February 25, 2009 8:28 PM
> "...healthcare... Socialization WILL NOT WORK."
Really? It seems to work for every other "wealthy" nation.
Posted by: SnarkSlope at February 25, 2009 8:45 PM
Snark;
I'm not sure if many economists would argue that the New Deal extended the Great Depression. However, what is still up for debate is whether the New Deal did any good at all. If you look at the statistics concerning employment, industrial activity, stock market, etc., one can make the case that it didn't have much effect. In testimony before Congress, Roosevelt's treasury secretary Morgenthau conceded that it had done little (I think this testimony was in 1937 or so). Many econmoists argue that what really got the US out of the GD was WWII. See Amity's Shlae's recent book "The Forgotten Man" for further details.
I think the reason this issue takes on more importance today is that we are "lower on ammo". What I mean is that back in the 30's, the US could issue more debt to pay for the New Deal, as we were still a creditor nation. Now we're up to our eyeballs in debt.
I hope that I am proven wrong, but I am very worried about the effects of the stimulus program. Let's see what happens.
Posted by: benson at February 25, 2009 8:48 PM
Snark;
Here is a link that mentions Morgenthau's famous testimony:
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/congress/?q=node/77531&id=8928362
I hope that 3 or 4 years down the line, we won't be hearing similiar testimony from Geithner.
Posted by: benson at February 25, 2009 9:08 PM
> "most economists agree that the New Deal only succeeded in extending the Great Depression."
Name one - just one - credible economist who believes that.
This one you delusional retard!!
John Kenneth Galbraith
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kenneth_Galbraith
John Kenneth "Ken" Galbraith, OC (October 15, 1908 – April 29, 2006) was a Canadian-American economist. He was a Keynesian and an institutionalist, a leading proponent of 20th-century American liberalism and progressivism. His books on economic topics were bestsellers from the 1950s through the 1970s and he filled the role of public intellectual in this period on matters of economics.
Take your dumbass to Barnes and Noble and buy this book!
His 1954 bestseller The Great Crash, 1929 describes the famous Wall Street melt down of stock prices and how markets progressively become decoupled from reality in a speculative boom. The book is also a platform for Galbraith's keen insights, and humour, into human behaviour when wealth is threatened. It has never been out of print.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at February 25, 2009 10:27 PM
thanks benson for further elucidating my point. I'll take on the second point about socialized medicine in order to school our mutual friend snarkslope.
"..really? It seems to work for every other wealthy nation."
NO, IT DEFINITELY DOES NOT.
Let's start with first things first. Europe has benefitted GREATLY from American taxpayer largesse, in that we have been providing blanket military protection for Europe for the past 50 years. With the burden of protecting themselves militarily off for 5 decades, they have been quite liberal with the social programs including medical coverage. The US unfortunately, in its role of counterweight to despotic, misguided ideological nutcases around the world (i.e. Stalin, Tito, Franco, Cheauchescu, Khomeni, Young Ill, Mau, Castro, Breshniv, Khadaffi, Kruschev, Pol Pot, Milosevic just to name a few) has had to assign a hefty portion of it's GDP to the military protection of the free world.
That being said,
The United States has 300 Million people. Not 10 or 20 million like some of these industrialized nations you speak of. Secondly, the United States takes on much of the world's immigration, including much of the sick and infirm as a matter of course.
That being said,
take the UK for example, a wealthy, industrialized nation. where you have to wait on average 12-24 months for a hip replacement. Want an organ transplant? good luck getting that through the National Health Care system where surgery is rationed. Meanwhile here in the the U.S. , you have the insurance, you have the procedure scheduled by the surgeon of your choice.
take Canada for another example, a wealthy, industrialized nation. Again, healthcare is rationed. The wait is so long that it is routine for Canadians who have the money to skip the national health system and take the drive into Michigan for the heart surgery, they need to have done without delay.
Surveys in both of these wealthy industrialized nations reveal a public deeply dissatisfied with the health care they receive. they are grateful to have healthcare, of course , but perceive the delivery of it to be subpar and the availability of it to be less than adequate.
As far as the doctors themselves. They feel that the practice of medicine, throughout history held in the highest societal regard, has been relegated, in many cases to a vocational pursuit.
As far as the "47" million uninsured, that are so frequently alluded to in political discussions. Independent studies of these uninsured americans has revealed the following:
-fully 1/3 of the 47 million included in the ranks of the uninusured are illegal immigrants to this nation. That is, their health is the purvue of the nation they are legal subjects of, not the United States of America.
-1/4 of the 47 million are healthy, adults who could afford to pay for healthcare but choose not to, for whatever personal reasons. They would be eligible for sliding scale programs, COBRA programs or simply major medical to cover catastrophic/emergency illness.
-another 1/4 of the 47 million are children who would qualify for either medicaid or one of the federally funded SHIP programs, if their parents took the time to enroll them.
Adding the numbers together and calculating the truly uninsured leaves something along the lines of 10 million uninsured Americans.
10 million uninsured Americans can be easily handled by federally issued medicare or medicaid cards as needed. Without resorting to a wholesale undermining of the entire US healthcare system which makes up about 1/5 of our yearly GDP. A socialized system would also take out the capitalist engine of innovation which has been the driving force of medicine for the past century and has given us such triumphs as the Polio vaccine, Chemotherapy, Antibiotics, Artificial limbs, Anti-depressants/anti-psychotics, Joint replacements, bone stimulators, Magnetic Resonance Imagery, Positron Electron Transmission scans, Gene therapy, etc, etc.
Once again, if the president wants to help US medicine, he will start with serious Tort law reform. Loser pay laws and an end to the ongoing lottery system of medical malpractice that drives up costs at the expense of society.
Posted by: Legion at February 25, 2009 10:54 PM
Legion - It's funny that you should bring up the old "hip replacement" canard.
You do realize the the vast majority of hip replacements in the USA are paid for by Medicaid, right? So in the end, this is a comparison of two socialized health insurance programs, not a "free market" to "socialized medicine" comparison.
As far as your "we have the best health care in the world" argument, it is patently false. The US pays more for their health care than any other country. Our quality of care, as measured by the World Health Organization, ranks 37th.
Our system is broken. About 1/3 of all health care costs are administrative. A single government insurance program would be far more efficient.
Posted by: SnarkSlope at February 26, 2009 7:48 AM
Hey What, I haven't read any John Kenneth Galbraith, but I have read Paul Krugman, who I think is - and has been - rather spot on. The Wikipedia page you linked to says this:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Paul Krugman, the influential, Nobel Prize–winning Princeton University professor and New York Times op-ed columnist, has denigrated Galbraith's stature as an economist. In Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in an Age of Diminished Expectations, he calls Galbraith a "policy entrepreneur" – an economist who writes solely for the public, as opposed to one who writes for other professors, and who therefore makes unwarranted diagnoses and offers over-simplistic answers to complex economic problems. He asserts that Galbraith was never taken seriously by fellow academics, who viewed him as more of a "media personality". For example, Krugman believes that Galbraith's work The New Industrial State is not considered to be "real economic theory", and that Economics in Perspective is "remarkably ill-informed.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Posted by: SnarkSlope at February 26, 2009 7:56 AM
Snark;
I'd be careful here. Galbraith was a respected Harvard economist who was a key JFK advisor. He is a lion of the liberal establishment. I'd be also careful about putting too many of my chips on Krugman. Krugman stating that Galbraith wrote for the public is truly laughable. Krugman is the person with a NYT column. Galbraith worked in the sphere of academia and government. Furthermore, Krugman's specialty is the econmics of trade and comparitive advantage. This is what he won his Nobel prize for.
I think if you would take a poll among economists as to who has "gone Hollywood" - Krugman or Galbraith, there would be no contest.
Posted by: benson at February 26, 2009 9:58 AM
snark,
again,you are wrong.
regarding the hip replacement issue. The US system is a free market system with very genrous "social" programs added into the mix. Thus, those that actually need care and do not have the means, get the care. This does not deny the fact that you will not have to wait for a hip replacement in the USA as you do in Great Britain.
What you are comparing to Sweden is in fact a free market system combined with a generous societal safety net that has made the American medical system the envy of the world. As I stated, the medical innovations of the past 100 years have been largely funded/researched/developed here in the USA. Look it up.
What's more, we are dealing with a system servicing 300 MILLION lives. not 10 million or 20 million. So, of course, sweden or norway or belgium will have excellent systems, probably better than ours, because they only deal with a fraction of the people we see here in the USA. and again, they don't take on the bulk of the world's poverty problem or immigration. The WHO does not factor this in to their calculations of the "best" medical systems. Of course, these other nations benefit from American innovation, but we will never get the credit for that, just as we don't get credit for covering Europe for their military needs. And they do have many (i.e. Putin).
Stop playing socialist college sophmore and start dealing with the harsh realities at hand.
Posted by: Legion at February 26, 2009 10:04 AM
> "Thus, those that actually need care and do not have the means, get the care."
This single comment of yours shows me that you have no understanding of "the harsh realities at hand."
Have a good day. We're done here.
Posted by: SnarkSlope at February 26, 2009 10:57 AM

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