147 South Oxford #3C Sells for 7 Percent Under Ask

I'm supposed to be officially "retired" from posting (self-imposed, need to focus on other things) but I can't let the comment stand that 2006 was top of market in NYC. We were seriously considering selling our apartment from 2005-2008 (when we finally did sell) and we had the place priced by brokers at different moments during that time. The value steadily climbed up, reaching an absolute peak in late 2007. We finally sold in early 2008, pricing it below the 2007 value but generating enough interest that we got a bidding war above ask (and above the 2007 price estimate). In my view, late 07/early 08 was the peak. Bear Sterns was the beginning of the end, though things held value up until Lehman, when at last things really started to drop off a cliff, though obstinate sellers (and some optimistic buyers) still have been buying even through the fall. Now that the bonuses will at last dry up, and a culture of restraint will be imposed on many others (even those who don't make bonuses), things will really start to change.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at February 6, 2009 3:04 PM

Meant to say obstinate sellers and optimistic buyers helped support prices through this past fall.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at February 6, 2009 3:07 PM

Yes, I'm working very hard. I'm a bit worried about falling off the wagon (slippery slope) so will try to stop here. I must confess, I still read Bstoner every day but I've restrained myself from posting and joining the discussions even when it's been very tempting. It's actually pretty liberating to instead focus on my work! Cheers to all...

Posted by: Miss Muffett at February 6, 2009 3:45 PM

OK, OK, last post - mopar, I just meant that the psychology of buyers/sellers takes a while to shift. The market held up quite well even after Bear Sterns collapsed, less so after Lehman, and this is going to be the really bad year (which I actually find scary). My point is that classic boom and bust cycles show a period when there is a turning point in psychology and that's when obstinate sellers and optimistic buyers will likely shift to resigned sellers and pessimistic/opportunistic buyers (that is, buyers who will be much more resistant to buying unless a significantly lowered price creates a feeling of opportunity).

Posted by: Miss Muffett at February 6, 2009 3:49 PM

Well, mopar, that's what happens as the market turns - transactions go down/get slower, etc. until the new psychology snaps into place and overtakes both sellers (who finally lower their prices) and buyers (who finally jump back in). OK, enough! (see how darn addictive this is!)

Posted by: Miss Muffett at February 6, 2009 4:42 PM

Well, mopar, that's what happens as the market turns - transactions go down/get slower, etc. until the new psychology snaps into place and overtakes both sellers (who finally lower their prices) and buyers (who finally jump back in). OK, enough! (see how darn addictive this is!)

Posted by: Miss Muffett at February 6, 2009 4:52 PM

Don't forget cash-flush buyers who are sitting on the sidelines, who are less affected by interest rates, but are waiting to get better value with their cash.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at February 6, 2009 8:22 PM

Well, there are some folks out there (and a few on this list), who sold at the height and are renting, so are sitting on yes, lots of cash. These rare people are surely the exception, not the rule, so are not going to prop up the market. Also, since they probably foresaw the meltdown and are cautious with their money, they are probably more likely to wait before buying anytime soon - really, the news gets clearer day by day that NYC prices have a lot further down to go.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at February 7, 2009 3:05 PM

Market timers with cash win.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at February 8, 2009 11:27 PM