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January 6, 2009

Quote of the Day

I think we forget, with all of the negative doom and gloom in the media, that many people are still doing well, many people are in jobs that are thriving and, gasp, growing, and many people are doing what they would have been doing had this mess not occured. People are still moving to NYC to follow their dreams, and people will still buy apartments and houses in the neighborhoods they want to buy in. Seems to me that our media's hyper attention to the minutia of every stock market jiggle, every business decision, and especially every business and personal disaster story, has turned us into a nation of hesitating, reactive, quivering masses of jello. (Continued...)

— by Montrose Morris in Hey, Something Sold!

I'm not saying it's not bad out there, believe me, I'm experiencing it, as are friends and family. Would that the media, Congress, the SEC and others who are supposed to be watching, had spent as much ink and pixels on preventing what was preventable, instead of wailing that life as we know it is over. It will indeed be interesting to see how that translates to real estate transactions in Brooklyn. I don't think we are immune, but as we see from the Forum, and from sales, people have bought in this market, and will continue to do so, albeit more slowly.

Just blathering on to basically say, I'm glad this sold, it sold quickly, and let's keep it going. Good news for buyer, seller, real estate broker, attorneys, movers, handimen and perhaps contractors, decorators, and more.

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Comments

Exactly so, MM. The media has turned this into a self-fulfilling recession (note the article in the NYT today that car sales will never ever return to what they were).

Posted by: denton at January 6, 2009 3:37 PM

There's always room for Jello.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at January 6, 2009 3:38 PM

Denton-

"(note the article in the NYT today that car sales will never ever return to what they were)."

GOOD! Car sales, driving and oil addiction is why we are in a recession, why we go to War and why we as a society are dropping into the toilet.

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at January 6, 2009 3:48 PM

Don't blame the news media. You can't expect them to bring out dancing girls dressed up as silver dollars singing "we're in the money".
The financial news is bad. We are in a deep dish recession. No sense denying it. The NYC real estate market is reeling so badly it doesn't know where it is. We will hit bottom and then the bottom feeders will come out in force as they always do and eventually we will recover, but I'm thinking that will be 2011.

Posted by: sam at January 6, 2009 3:57 PM

It's often during recessions that certain people make tons of money. Look at the way Hollywood exploded during the great depression. If you find the right niche, you can really do something.

I'm glad I work in video games (tangentally), an industry which continues to have really solid sales even as more traditional industries plummet. I'm hoping my job will stay stable while housing prices drop, and I can use that combination to buy my first home.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 6, 2009 3:57 PM

PS...a bit extreme don't you think? Actually people like denton who install natural gas guzzling ranges that take up half the kitchen are the reason we are in a recession. We are actually self sufficient in natural gas!!!! We go to war to test out new weapons. Didn't you know that???

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 6, 2009 3:59 PM

DIBS, before you throw me out as the resident socialist ( which I'm NOT ) isn't it close to impossible to not see a connection between gas consumption, consumerism, gluttonous materialism and War?

Just a little?

All the shit we are swimming in right now we brought to ourselves. Though I suffer through it, its hard to feel like a victim.

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at January 6, 2009 4:07 PM

we just had a whole office meeting. there will be no raises this year :( however there will be no lay-offs which eased a lot of peoples minds fer sure. especially mine

*rob*

Posted by: PitbullNYC at January 6, 2009 4:19 PM

The original name for the current quagmire in Iraq was apparently:

O p e r a t i o n
I r a q i
L i b e r a t i o n

Nice.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at January 6, 2009 4:24 PM

The ancients always blamed all natural and man-made disasters on sinfulness. Often they resorted to human sacrifice to appease the gods and to try and make up for their many failings such as greediness, sloth, gluttony, drunkardness, and adultry.
It is only human to blame the occurence of bad things -things that we cannot understand entirely like tsunamis and financial meltdowns- on the "sins" of others, as prodigal son does.
The line is usually something like: you have brought these curses down on yourselves for being impure.
The Puritans would agree, so would the ancient Greeks, and the Aztecs. God is offended. Make amends.
I would suggest we throw PS into the Gowanus near the big propeller. Fair?

Posted by: sam at January 6, 2009 4:41 PM

"Just blathering on to basically say, I'm glad this sold, it sold quickly, and let's keep it going. Good news for buyer, seller, real estate broker, attorneys, movers, handimen and perhaps contractors, decorators, and more."

This is good news for existing home owners and their cadre of support, all the lawyers, brokers, attorneys, movers, etc. who have been riding the real estate wave (which now resembles a tsunami, with everyone stuck on the same beach - even if they didn't contribute to the current crisis).

This is not good news for those of us would-be first time buyers who are STILL marginalized by unrealistic prices. Basically the market has shut out scores of people, with good credit, solid financials and the wisdom to not buy in when prices escalated beyond control. Prices are going to have to come down - interesting that this blog did not pick up any of today's real estate reports from The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Crains reporting on the crash of Manhattan/New York real estate. I don't want to see the market crash, but I want to see a real correction that reflects the CURRENT credit market and current job and bonus prospects.

As such, I don't think anyone who contributed to the hype of the past 4-5 years should see a return. On the contrary, as prices come back to earth real estate valuations need to fall, and people who bought high on the speculative bid that it would last forever will feel the pinch just like everyone else.

Posted by: HellsBelles at January 6, 2009 4:52 PM

Very true, but on average things are turning to crap.

Posted by: jawbreaker at January 6, 2009 5:02 PM

howdy Sam...

I've said it before but for everyone who forgot, my handle "Prodigal Son" has NOTHING to do with me being a religious man, which I am most certainly NOT.

Religion is a huge part of the problem, too.

I don't blame anything on sinfulness. I'm one sinful SOB. I do blame it on stupidity, which is one thing this country can't avoid the blame on.

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at January 6, 2009 5:05 PM

PS: Stupidity is a hard thing to pin down, and many stupid people are very good. On the other hand some brilliant people are very bad. I think you would do better pinning the blame on sin. That's why it was invented in the first place.
But back to business, are you willing to be tossed into the Gowanus as atonement for our evil ways? Sometimes the old ways are best.

Posted by: sam at January 6, 2009 5:19 PM

HellsBelles, my point was not that everything is hunky-dory, because of this, or any other sale, but positive movement in the marketplace means that on down the line, people are getting paid, and in turn, spending money, and maybe convincing banks that they should start lending again. Not everything has a direct effect on what we want, or need, but every little bit helps.

I agree that first time homebuyers are in for a much harder ride than those exchanging properties, but those people are needed to stimulate the entire process. I hope prices, especially in middle class neighborhoods, go down to realistic prices that more people can afford. That can only be a good thing for everyone, and help those neighborhood economies, and the city's, endure.

Posted by: Montrose Morris at January 6, 2009 5:23 PM

Montrose (and others):

The view from Manhattan isn't good.

A neighbor in my New York building has one of those "aspirational" apartments people come from everywhere and slaver to get. (Pre-war; high-floor and floor-through; views, beams and moldings -- the works!)

It's been sitting on the market for months -- and with a 20% price reduction. And the co-op board's getting tougher about sales because it doesn't want to "de-value" the building.

Normalize prices, sure.

But Krugman's let it out the bag: we're in for a Depression. For those who own places outright and don't plan to sell it may be okay, but for those who bought high (and to speculate) it's going to be a rough time.

Those "middle-class" folks waiting in the wings are going to be hit, too. So anticipate that the real-estate market will continue to decline. And act accordingly. Move very slowly on any purchase. We have a long slide to go -- especially if Congress gets in Obama's way. And that looks likely.

(By the way, Alcoa announced today it's firing 13,000 people. This crisis is world-wide!)

Nostalgic on Park Avenue

Posted by: NOP at January 6, 2009 5:41 PM

Montrose - I agree that credit needs to flow. But first time buyers - "those people" as you put it - have been asked to foot the bill for years, while existing homeowners have relied on the continuing escalation of their home equity to bankroll ever-increasing lifestyle and housing purchases. And the people beating the drum have been the brokers, the lenders, current owners, decorators, etc. Always GOOD news about real estate - always a sense of URGENCY. Always a rosy forecast driving the market ever-upward. I do not want to see the economy crash, but current pricing is not realistic - prices are not in line with real income and available credit. Sellers/home owners in Brooklyn seem unprepared to deal with the risk they took buying into a frothy, and inherently risky market - now that credit has eroded it would be unreasonable to think that first-time buyers face a different credit reality than they do and can still fund substantial real estate returns.

Posted by: HellsBelles at January 6, 2009 6:19 PM

PS, overall I'm not disagreeing that we as a nation have a serious problem with auto use. That wasn't my point at all. In fact I'd love to see a half a buck gas tax right now. You should note that the car that dropped most in sales last month was the Toyota Prius.

Posted by: denton at January 6, 2009 7:16 PM

Montrose,

the media's hyper attention to everything that's wrong in this country should start to change around noon on Jan 20th

Posted by: yanks77 at January 6, 2009 7:29 PM

The party is over, no matter how much of an optimist you may be. Yes, there are still sales, there will always be sales. But prices will slowly reflect the REAL, not imagined or even exaggerated, economic conditions that are affecting the US and the world. Sure many people still have their jobs and are doing well--this is common in any recession or even depression. But economic indicators and recent events clearly show that we are in a very bad situation, and things will only get worse.

Posted by: bk14 at January 6, 2009 8:22 PM

Here is a QOTD. You are still a bunch of Clueless Asshats! Show me where thing are getting better in the implosion of the Mutant Asset Bubble?? And while we are at it lets put Brownstoner up there with the broken hype machine! How can you say the media is responsible for the recession when they was telling everyone "but now or be priced out forever"" or my all time favorite "Subprime is contained"!!

You have been lied too and the sad thing about it is you want them to lie to you some more! The reality distortion field has collapsed with the Mutant Asset Bubble and both are swirling into the vortex called Deflation....

Buh bye Asshats, nice knowing ya..

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at January 6, 2009 8:23 PM

The What is a crazy little homeless man

Posted by: Miss Chiff at January 6, 2009 9:36 PM

we are at war and will continue to be for a long time because there is a community of terrorists who want to kill us.

Posted by: wine lover at January 6, 2009 11:28 PM

On the NYS unemployment system, which crashed on Monday & Tuesday due to a surge in demand:

"As many as 10,000 people an hour tried to log into the system to file new unemployment claims or to check on existing claims"

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/nyregion/07unemployment.html?_r=1&ref=nyregion

Keep trying to convince yourself it's just Wall Streeters, and that everything is fine...

Posted by: bk14 at January 6, 2009 11:53 PM

I will never understand how a depression is a media inspired self-fulfilling prophecy. The media is usually running behind the curve not creating it. For starters, the media calls what we are in now, a "recession" or a "downturn". This economic can't compare to the Great Depression for good reason and not because we're better off. We're worse. I don't think the sky is falling but I do think people should be scared and sometimes I think we should actually THANK media outlets for making people realize what is going on. The GDP, unemployment #'s, etc. mean nothing or at least not the same thing as in 1929 because the numbers are being massaged and spun.

Yes, some people will always do well in the face of adversity but it doesn't mean adversity doesn't exist or the impact is lessened for the people who are being whipped by it.

Posted by: i_heart_brooklyn at January 7, 2009 12:57 AM

What a dumb ass qotd. Infantile, moronic and just plain asinine. Is this whats required for qotd?

Posted by: cornerbodega at January 7, 2009 1:42 AM

cornerbodega again shows how much of a moron he/she really is. Could you actually comprehend the sentences???

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 7, 2009 8:43 AM

The sad fact is that economic downturns really do increase the disparity between the rich and poor/middle class. The reason is simple.. while the middle class and lower struggle to pay their bills and are living paycheck to paycheck those that have abundant savings and a nice income can snatch up the great deals, low prices, low interest rates etc and increase their wealth.. not necessarily at the expense of the former .. but still it widens the gap..

Posted by: hazenyc at January 7, 2009 9:15 AM

DIBS- cornerbodega has eaten the jello, methinks. Obviously he didn't get the real point of MM's post- that news headlines sell, and they don't tell the whole story. If I lived my life by the headlines I'd never leave my closet, let alone my house.

Posted by: bxgrl at January 7, 2009 10:02 AM

I think the qotd is overly simplistic and not 100% on point- but I do agree that a large part of the crisis is driven by consumer confidence, which is related to the point being made. People are scared and they spend less- even if they have jobs because they're afraid they're going to lose their jobs- and after they saw the 40% decline in their 401(k) and realized they are actually living paycheck to paycheck- people woke up and started saving. Ironically, saving is happening at a terrible time. We are generally a consumer driven economy and we need people to buy DVDs, go to out to eat, buy clothes etc. In a perfect world people would save when times are good- but not everyone is like the ant. Most of us are grasshoppers.

Posted by: panda10 at January 7, 2009 11:05 AM

DIBS - don't worry. everyone on here, the media, economists, the fomc, smart money investors - all of them are wrong. you and your posse know more than all these "professionals". you will get that $2000 for your 1br in the ghetto sooner than you think. just keep believing. asshats be damned.

Posted by: jingle mail at January 7, 2009 11:49 AM

« Today on the Forum Closing Bell: FIPS Goes Undercover »

January 6, 2009

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