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January 30, 2009

Open House Picks: Six Months Later

Comment: Not too bad, actually.
Open House Picks 7/25/08 [Brownstoner]
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Comments

"Comment: Not too bad, actually."

Comment: Brownstoner is a retard, actually.

Those are your new comps there Brownie! You see that 238 Monroe street sale. I'm willing to bet that the same family as YOUR HOUSE DUMBASS!!! Your house is now worth 695k and I know you paid 990k and now that comp is sinking the whole Hood! Wow what a dumbass!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at January 30, 2009 12:52 PM

Somebody (and I use that term loosely) is craving some serious attention today...

Posted by: 11217 at January 30, 2009 12:55 PM

"Somebody (and I use that term loosely) is craving some serious attention today..."

Aren't you always, 11217? Oh, you meant The What, sorry. Yes, and calling people "retard" generally doesn't add to the weight of one's comments.

Posted by: shillstoner at January 30, 2009 1:11 PM

let me do this for you all:
-"not too bad, actually" - not too bad for whom? buyers or sellers
-most sales before the meltdown so they are irrelevant
-certainly these contracts were signed before the meltdown and why don't you put the contract date in these postings, mr. b
-bed stuy is fringe and these prices are insane and this means that prices have a LOT farther to fall before they bottom
-bed stuy is great bed stuy is the best i love bed stuy
-dibs lives in bed stuy and is doing fine and is staying there forever thank you very much

Posted by: i disagree at January 30, 2009 1:14 PM

Good one shill.

If we're going to be honest...sure I guess in some way we're all hoping people notice our comments in one way or another. Or at least read them.

But the What's comment above strikes me as particularly tasteless.

Outing how much someone paid for their home and calling them a retard? Not classy.

Posted by: 11217 at January 30, 2009 1:14 PM

When I first started reading this blog houses didn't last 6 months. Looks like a fire sale without the fire. If it keeps going south, I may move back to NYC.

Posted by: Iknow at January 30, 2009 1:15 PM

good one i disagree...

Posted by: Amzi Hill at January 30, 2009 1:20 PM

i_disagree - nice :)

11217 - I thought Mr. B lived in Clinton Hill?

Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 30, 2009 1:22 PM

Ok,first - all of these are in BedStuy which we all can agree is sort of a "fringe" nabe that will experience some drops in price during these times as opposed to the more "choice nabes" say PS,CH,BH,CG etc etc
but that is not to say these houses in BedStuy won't bounce back - just not now.
of course - I am more curious as to the current sales of brownstones/buildings in PS,PH,CG etc and am figuring either:
A. No one is putting their building in those nabes above up for sale now
or
B. People aren't out buying houses in choice nabes now as it's perceived you won't get a bargain?
It seems to me there has been increased activity in house sales in fringe nabes as of late, b/c there might be a perceived notion buyers are getting "deals"

Posted by: gemini10 at January 30, 2009 1:24 PM

Yes, CW...Mr. B does live in Clinton Hill.

I don't know what "The What" is talking about. Per usual.

Have you seen the Prospect Avenue house on the open house thread? Cute 2 family house....

Posted by: 11217 at January 30, 2009 1:30 PM

I was waiting for the F word to pop up....

Posted by: Amzi Hill at January 30, 2009 1:32 PM

11217 - very cute, but very out of our budget. :)

Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 30, 2009 1:40 PM

Yes, of course.

I thought you had mentioned going in on a 2 family with another couple at some point. That's the only reason I mentioned it to you...

Posted by: 11217 at January 30, 2009 1:43 PM

Oh, yeh, we thought about it but decided that we'd rather try to have something that's ours and use extra space to provide rental income.

If that prospect ave house was a few hundred thousand less, it'd be well worth looking at for us.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 30, 2009 1:56 PM

I thought Mr. B lived in Clinton Hill?

Yes he does and the Monroe House in within a half a mile on his comp table. The Apprised value of his house is 695k.. If you was reading my post and paying attention, RETARD!

"Aren't you always, 11217? Oh, you meant The What, sorry. Yes, and calling people "retard" generally doesn't add to the weight of one's comments."

No I use the word Retard is because most of the people are delusional...

The What

Someday this war is gonna end..

Posted by: Return of The What at January 30, 2009 1:56 PM

I was paying attention. You're just a poor writer.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 30, 2009 2:15 PM

Its really rich of you to call people retards when you can't even get your subject/verb agreement correct after all this time.

Posted by: dittoburg at January 30, 2009 2:16 PM

11217 - agreed, that the what is alittle aggressive today. however 'outing' how much people pay for homes is what this site is about. Mr. B is not immune to the nosey public - anyone can access propertyshark, as long as they have an address.

p.s. i will say this again - everyone on this site is nosey!including me!

Posted by: bkny at January 30, 2009 2:17 PM

Doesn't look like there's any problem to me with those sale prices in bed Stuy. Looks like a perfectly normal market with things clearing between ask and offf 10%.

BHO, care to comment????

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 30, 2009 2:25 PM

Hancock Ct, notwithstanding. Forgot to add that.

Even I knew Hancock St was priced more than $200k too high originally. I bet it sells for $800-850.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 30, 2009 2:38 PM

850 for a newly redone limestone with two rental properties isn't a bad price.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 30, 2009 2:56 PM

"Not too bad, actually."

Not for the sellers. Too bad for the Monroe buyer. Future Clinton Hill price for only three stories and a 6 1/2 block walk to either G or C trains. Post Lehman. Whoops!

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 30, 2009 3:00 PM

In addition to the fact that our house is in Clinton Hill and that we renovated it, it's also five stories as opposed to three. Who knows what our place would sell for now, but that Monroe listing is obviously not the right comp. Clearly 147 St. James is a much more comparable property (http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2009/01/last_weeks_bigg_43.php) though we'd never try to make the case that our house would fetch anywhere near the $1,930,000 this one just sold for. We still can't believe that number.

Posted by: brownstoner at January 30, 2009 3:02 PM

brownstoner....when are you going to learn not to bother engaging the What???!!! :)

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 30, 2009 3:09 PM

"BHO, care to comment????"

overpaidinbedstuy

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 30, 2009 3:14 PM

BHO should change his name to "Brownstones Anywhere Between Five and Fifty Percent Off Depending On How 'Fringe' Your Neighborhood Is"

Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 30, 2009 3:19 PM

hahaha! cwbuecheler, would BHO lose the tip-tap-snap of a catchy handle for bland accuracy? I think not.

Posted by: Maly at January 30, 2009 3:27 PM

"brownstoner....when are you going to learn not to bother engaging the What???!!! :)"

Denial needs an outlet. You should know, Coach Brown.

"BHO should change his name to "Brownstones Anywhere Between Five and Fifty Percent Off Depending On How 'Fringe' Your Neighborhood Is" "

I would if all hoods had exactly the same comps going into the bubble. But the reality is that premiums were already built in. Park Slope was always more expensive than Clinton Hill. 200% increase accross the board. 50% decrease accross the board.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 30, 2009 3:29 PM

"though we'd never try to make the case that our house would fetch anywhere near the $1,930,000 this one just sold for. We still can't believe that number."

Wow throw around a few hand grenades and you never know runs out! LMMFAO!

Hey Brownstoner what happening! Look I love the Doom and Gloom pieces, that means you are finally getting it! I wish you would clue in your fellow Asshats in the state of the economy!

"brownstoner....when are you going to learn not to bother engaging the What???!!! :)"

Whether you Asshats realize this or not "The What" is the engine of Brownstoner! The starter and finisher of everything here and Brownstoner can engage me at anytime (Even for a civil conversation). Unlike like DIBS is a attention idiot and a retard!

NY Magazine traffic and the prediction of the crash of fall '08 is on the resume courtesy of The What.....

Have a great Weekend Team Bear!!!!!!

The What (Obama will be in Brooklyn this weekend. He will save us)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at January 30, 2009 3:33 PM

Hey BHO We need to assemble Team Loon or Team Bear or some name! I think you are doing a wonderful job PWNING the Asshats!

Be well!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end..

Posted by: Return of The What at January 30, 2009 3:37 PM

You may be Team bear when you're on your meds but you're Team Douchebag when you're not.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 30, 2009 3:46 PM

> "'The What' is the engine of Brownstoner!"

More like the broken radio that only gets one really annoying station.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at January 30, 2009 4:06 PM

"attention idiot"

I don't know what this is, but somehow, it sounds funny.

Posted by: East New York at January 30, 2009 4:30 PM

Damn, what a bunch of killjoys. As the new owner of 238, I was waiting to see what type of responses the 6 months later post might elicit. Although it seems like some of you think we are fools for investing on the "fringe nabe", we are very happy with our choice. My husband and I both work in the neighborhood, so Brooklyn Half Off, the 6 block walk to the train is not an issue, in terms of commuting to work.

Posted by: imglad at January 30, 2009 4:30 PM

Hey, imglad - it's all relative, my man. Imagine how you'd feel if Brownstoner had lampooned your home under the "Horror Show Friday" banner! Best of luck with your new home.

Posted by: East New York at January 30, 2009 4:34 PM

Welcome to the neighborhood, imglad.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 30, 2009 4:37 PM

imglad - I like your house and think you paid a reasonable price for it. :)

Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 30, 2009 4:38 PM

"Be well!"

Likewise. You are my hero. Rock on family.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 30, 2009 4:46 PM

"My husband and I both work in the neighborhood, so Brooklyn Half Off, the 6 block walk to the train is not an issue, in terms of commuting to work."

But, in terms of longterm (inflation adjusted) resale value, it is an issue. I said "Post Lehman" about the close but I'll assume you went into contract well before October. Bed Stuy is Foreclosure Central and you are unlikely to see a bubble like this again. Just calling it like I see it.

That being said, congratulations on your new house! It's too late to turn back now. Make the best of it. Good luck.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 30, 2009 5:14 PM

Although you fringe speculators do not deserve much sympathy, I still feel bad for you as the tsunami thats gonna hit y'all will be merciless. Theres nothing worse than holding a big bag in a place that nobody will want to live in. Pity for the soon to be pitiful.

Posted by: cornerbodega at January 30, 2009 5:25 PM

Congrats Imglad! Looks like a beautiful home!

I hope you have many great memories there.

Posted by: 11217 at January 30, 2009 5:29 PM

I got something you can hold, cornerbodega. Things are selling in bed Stuy as the thread suggests.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 30, 2009 5:30 PM

You know, there's a lot of people who aren't "fringe speculators" ... they just want to own a brownstone and they can't afford to buy in "non-fringe" areas.

My wife and I are considering Bed Stuy, and we're not considering it because of some stupid plan to buy a house there and flip it. We're considering it because it seems like a decent place to put down roots. Stuyvesant Heights is beautiful and there's some nice stuff in the way of amenities happening on some of the avenues.

Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 30, 2009 5:31 PM

cw....cornerbodega doesn't understand things based in reality.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 30, 2009 5:36 PM

"But, in terms of longterm (inflation adjusted) resale value, it is an issue. I said "Post Lehman" about the close but I'll assume you went into contract well before October. Bed Stuy is Foreclosure Central and you are unlikely to see a bubble like this again. Just calling it like I see it."

Well, actually, (sorry I gave you the wrong title before), Brownstones Half Off, it is not an issue, not for us at least. Firstly, we plan to KEEP the house, as in, it will be a family house. We are not (barring, God forbid, loss of income (we are in education, so we have a bit of security, and yes I know about the Times article that came out yesterday, but that news does not directly apply to us), divorce, and/or death planning to sell the house. We bought the house because we wanted to be part of a community. Now if our children decide to sell it or our grandchildren, maybe then we can anticipate some loss, but by that time we will have gotten a lot years out of the house. Secondly, at some point the market will bounce back. Hopefully, in a balanced way. We are not looking for our house to be worth a million. Because with out of wack, completely inflated housing prices comes a whole host of things that we don't want, i.e higher real estate taxes, change in neighborhood demographics, etc. Making money off the house is like waaaaaay down on our list of the benefits of owning a home. But you are right, what is done is done and even if we could, we would not turn back.
Thanks for the well wishes

Posted by: imglad at January 30, 2009 5:39 PM

I hope you become a regular reader and commenter on Brownstoner, imglad.

You sound like you have some great things to add here.

Posted by: 11217 at January 30, 2009 5:47 PM

"You know, there's a lot of people who aren't "fringe speculators" ... they just want to own a brownstone and they can't afford to buy in "non-fringe" areas.

This assessment of yours is asinine. Well, maybe buying something that will be worth -50% is considered a quality move for you...

Posted by: cornerbodega at January 30, 2009 6:21 PM

I have to agree with DIBS. These prices seem to be holding pretty steady. Maybe they've gently declined from 2006. I wouldn't know. All the really seem to represent is 10 percent off ask, which is business as usual in most parts of the country most of the time, although not in Brooklyn during the boom. In any case, I don't see any kind of sudden decline here, and would not hire the What as an appraiser.

Not saying it won't happen, but it hasn't happened yet.

Posted by: mopar at January 30, 2009 6:28 PM

Mopar, you sound like such a newbie. So many idiots chime in w/o even knowing the most basics of basics. hint hint, theres a thing called lagging data. People arguing that BedStuy holding up? The whole city doom and gloom, but BedStuy gonna be a bright spot.Hahahahah, YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS S*HIT UP!

Posted by: cornerbodega at January 30, 2009 6:36 PM

Well said, cw.

Cornerbodega, we are looking to buy in Bushwick now because (1) it's where we want to live (2) it's highly affordable. Prices are 40 percent off peak, they match rents, interest rates are low, we are still employed, and we're not getting any younger.

Could prices drop further? I doubt it. But if they do, why would we care? We're not flippers. Prices will rise in the long run.

Posted by: mopar at January 30, 2009 6:40 PM

"Could prices drop further? I doubt it. But if they do, why would we care? We're not flippers. Prices will rise in the long run."

Ok, now I get it, sorry for arguing with an idiot. Somebody who doubts prices will drop in '09, YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS S*HIT UP!

Posted by: cornerbodega at January 30, 2009 6:46 PM

Corner, I'm not a newbie to this site or buying and selling property. You sound like a newbie, so sure Bed Stuy prices are going to plummet before the data even comes out. Now if you are a Bed Stuy insider and know about deals being made now, do tell. But it sounds like all you know about the place is its reputation 15 years ago.

Posted by: mopar at January 30, 2009 6:48 PM

cornerbodega, you're such a jackass here. I'm glad your also an omniscient jackass. despite that you clearly have no grasp on homeownership.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 30, 2009 6:48 PM

Corner, I'm saying I doubt prices can drop much further in Bushwick. That's all. I'm not talking about the rest of Brooklyn. We're in a down market, so of course prices will continue to fall. I have no idea how much they'll fall in the "prime" areas, and I'm very curious to find out. Bed Stuy is kind of interesting because it seems to be straddling a kind of middle ground. And it is not "foreclosure central." Not compared to Queens, East Flatbush, and Bushwick.

Posted by: mopar at January 30, 2009 6:54 PM

imglad...it looks like you're new here. Again, welcome to bed Stuy and welcome to brownstoner. Unfortunately there are a lot of people like cornerbodega on the site. They think they know exactly what the property market is going to do. Most of those who think this way weren't able to figure it out on the way up so now there's sour grapes. His personality is such that he delights in predicting other people's loss of equity. He probably has never been very far from his own neighborhood and hasn't ever seen how property works in different neighborhoods in cities across the country.

Pay him no mind.

You should be able to find civil, helpful discussion on the Forum posts whenever you need info about the house or recommendations.

On all the Home Page threads.join the fun and have a blast.

dave

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 30, 2009 6:59 PM

Attention All Assclowns;
Some sobering facts to temper your acrimonous assault on optimistic homeowners.
1. New York City is still a center of world culture, financial, literary, artistic, fashion, architectural, musical, etc, etc.
2. New York City's population continues to grow.
3. New York City has been here now for about 400 years.
4. Recessions come and go. The economy is cyclical, what goes up comes down then goes up again.
5. People need housing. Families like housing with space for children.
6. Bedford -Stuyvesant is the only Brownstone neighborhood left that's affordable and still within 15 minutes of Manhattan.
7. Owners in Bed-Stuy who find themselves overleveraged now have the option to apply for loan modification, refinancing at historically low rates or simply renting out their units.
8. There is and always will be a strong rental market in this type of neighborhood. See points 1-6, above.
9. There is no massive meltdown in Bed-Stuy housing as far as I have seen. Contrary to what certain assclowns have been predicting here for going on two years. What I have seen is a reasonable price correction and a pull back in supply as owners refinance, rent or modify as stated before.
10.The laws of supply and demand are still in effect.

Deal with it assclowns.

Posted by: Legion at January 30, 2009 7:15 PM

Legion, thanks for the first lesson they give out in "Idiot 101". We appreciate you wasting all those keystrokes...

Posted by: cornerbodega at January 30, 2009 7:38 PM

cornholeio,
no problemo bro. glad to be of assistance. there is no excuse for ignorance in this day and age. not when ironic idiocy abounds.

Posted by: Legion at January 30, 2009 7:47 PM

lol, Legion.

Posted by: mopar at January 30, 2009 11:19 PM

I'm actually really amazed at how prices in NYC are holding on. I thought for sure we'd see more declines by now. I'm actually getting more optimistic, which is ridiculous. If things continue on in this vein, and the US doesn't default, the nadir could be first quarter 2010.

Posted by: mopar at January 30, 2009 11:24 PM

"Attention All Assclowns"

Attention Lesion,

Welcome to the Greater Depression. Case-Killa is down -13 percent and GETTING WORSE MONTHLY. And here's the kicker: October's crash aint even factored in yet. Lag (2 months for index) upon lag (at least 3 months between contract and close). When Case-Killa turns that October '08 corner, Brownstone Brooklyn TM prices will get murdered.

(Team Loon/Bear - Growl!!!)

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 31, 2009 12:16 AM

DOW (BHO)I have a lot of respect for your analysis (way of thinking) but you still only have a 50% chance of being correct. Signs of a property stabilazation before June will mean we are backing away from the cliff. As you know trends turn on a spike... the case-Killa acceleration could well be that spike.

New York is not the only place "holding on". Houses in major Asian centers have not dropped (just showing signs that they will). I was looking to buy or rent here 4 months ago and have held on as long as I can for the drop that hasn't come. Today I signed a lease for a place for SGD8000 per month. That's a lot more then for an equilavent place in NYC. Even if it drops 15% it'll still be more than NYC. Somehow that doesn't make sense to me.

Posted by: Aussie at January 31, 2009 5:17 AM

Aussie...you working in Singapore now??? Same firm???

Hope its going well there.

Dave

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 31, 2009 10:29 AM

Yep Dave Singapore. Same firm. Busy as hell, but like everyone else mainly restructurings and hedging. No risk being taken.

Posted by: Aussie at January 31, 2009 11:03 AM

"DOW (BHO)I have a lot of respect for your analysis (way of thinking) but you still only have a 50% chance of being correct."

Respect, mate. But the fate of this global home price appreciation Ponzi/Madoff type bubble will not be decided by the toss of a coin.

"Signs of a property stabilazation before June will mean we are backing away from the cliff."

There will absolutely be no stabilization unless the YOY passes through zero. When that happens, believe me, I will call bottom.

"As you know trends turn on a spike... the case-Killa acceleration could well be that spike."

No, that theory fails on the NY numbers below. Spikes don't apply to the monthly reading of the Case-Shiller YOY percent change. It changes very gradually. And that makes sense because it's real estate. Real estate psychology is very slow.

MO-YR YOY REMARK
Apr-91 -8.89% ACTUAL BOTTOM
May-91 -8.12%
Jun-91 -6.91%
Jul-91 -5.57%
Aug-91 -4.23%
Sep-91 -3.04%
Oct-91 -2.33%
Nov-91 -1.71%
Dec-91 -1.14%
Jan-92 0.00% BOTTOM CALL (changes sign)
Feb-92 0.94%
Mar-92 1.92%
Apr-92 2.92%
May-92 2.84%
Jun-92 2.23%
Jul-92 1.45%
Aug-92 1.19%
Sep-92 0.91%
Oct-92 0.63%
Nov-92 0.72%
Dec-92 0.82%
Jan-93 1.27%
Feb-93 1.40%
Mar-93 1.41%
Apr-93 1.26%
May-93 1.37%
Jun-93 1.73%
Jul-93 1.82%
Aug-93 1.58%
Sep-93 1.65%
Oct-93 1.91%
Nov-93 1.99%
Dec-93 1.80%
Jan-94 1.42%
Feb-94 1.34%
Mar-94 1.70%
Apr-94 2.04%
May-94 2.43%
Jun-94 2.30%
Jul-94 2.52%
Aug-94 2.71%
Sep-94 2.71%
Oct-94 2.54%
Nov-94 2.11%
Dec-94 2.15%
Jan-95 2.18%
Feb-95 2.43%
Mar-95 1.76%
Apr-95 1.16%
May-95 0.62%
Jun-95 0.49%
Jul-95 0.27%
Aug-95 0.11%
Sep-95 0.11%
Oct-95 0.30%
Nov-95 0.45%
Dec-95 0.43%
Jan-96 0.45%
Feb-96 0.56%
Mar-96 1.22%
Apr-96 1.50%
May-96 1.70%
Jun-96 1.20%
Jul-96 1.24%
Aug-96 1.44%
Sep-96 1.62%
Oct-96 1.57%
Nov-96 1.48%
Dec-96 1.69%
Jan-97 1.84%
Feb-97 1.71%
Mar-97 1.36%
Apr-97 1.38%
May-97 1.47%
Jun-97 2.53%
Jul-97 2.94%
Aug-97 3.00%
Sep-97 2.92%
Oct-97 3.10%
Nov-97 3.65%
Dec-97 3.85%
Jan-98 4.10%
Feb-98 4.71%
Mar-98 5.39%
Apr-98 5.91%
May-98 6.20%
Jun-98 6.19%
Jul-98 6.54%
Aug-98 6.96%
Sep-98 7.54%
Oct-98 7.81%
Nov-98 7.80%
Dec-98 7.60%
Jan-99 7.35%
Feb-99 7.20%
Mar-99 7.45%
Apr-99 8.06%
May-99 8.15%
Jun-99 8.65%
Jul-99 8.86%
Aug-99 9.49%
Sep-99 9.69%
Oct-99 10.00%
Nov-99 10.27%
Dec-99 11.01%
Jan-00 11.74%
Feb-00 11.85%
Mar-00 11.83%
Apr-00 11.81%
May-00 12.82%
Jun-00 12.68%
Jul-00 12.62%
Aug-00 12.41%
Sep-00 12.38%
Oct-00 12.49%
Nov-00 12.48%
Dec-00 12.68%
Jan-01 12.66%
Feb-01 12.90%
Mar-01 13.04%
Apr-01 12.88%
May-01 11.53%
Jun-01 11.23%
Jul-01 11.29%
Aug-01 11.49%
Sep-01 11.98%
Oct-01 12.08%
Nov-01 12.49%
Dec-01 11.49%
Jan-02 11.12%
Feb-02 10.47%
Mar-02 10.50%
Apr-02 10.67%
May-02 11.61%
Jun-02 12.13%
Jul-02 12.97%
Aug-02 13.45%
Sep-02 13.65%
Oct-02 14.31%
Nov-02 14.87%
Dec-02 16.42%
Jan-03 17.06%
Feb-03 17.46%
Mar-03 17.30%
Apr-03 16.88%
May-03 16.16%
Jun-03 14.87%
Jul-03 13.55%
Aug-03 12.63%
Sep-03 12.46%
Oct-03 12.11%
Nov-03 12.07%
Dec-03 11.78%
Jan-04 11.65%
Feb-04 11.96%
Mar-04 12.29%
Apr-04 12.55%
May-04 13.02%
Jun-04 13.85%
Jul-04 14.49%
Aug-04 14.69%
Sep-04 14.44%
Oct-04 14.60%
Nov-04 14.38%
Dec-04 14.08%
Jan-05 14.40%
Feb-05 14.78%
Mar-05 15.34%
Apr-05 15.33%
May-05 14.92%
Jun-05 14.38%
Jul-05 13.72%
Aug-05 13.71%
Sep-05 13.93%
Oct-05 14.15%
Nov-05 14.49%
Dec-05 14.86%
Jan-06 14.06%
Feb-06 13.30%
Mar-06 11.53%
Apr-06 10.75%
May-06 10.01%
Jun-06 9.13% ACTUAL PEAK
Jul-06 7.70%
Aug-06 5.94%
Sep-06 4.52%
Oct-06 3.20%
Nov-06 1.87%
Dec-06 0.52%
Jan-07 -0.34% PEAK CALL (changes sign)
Feb-07 -0.91%
Mar-07 -0.91%
Apr-07 -1.56%
May-07 -2.35%
Jun-07 -2.94%
Jul-07 -3.20%
Aug-07 -3.35%
Sep-07 -3.61%
Oct-07 -4.08%
Nov-07 -4.50%
Dec-07 -5.29%
Jan-08 -5.64%
Feb-08 -6.62%
Mar-08 -7.47%
Apr-08 -7.95%
May-08 -7.90%
Jun-08 -7.29%
Jul-08 -7.06%
Aug-08 -6.67%
Sep-08 -7.28%
Oct-08 -7.66%
Nov-08 -8.69% FURTHER FROM ZERO

"New York is not the only place "holding on". Houses in major Asian centers have not dropped (just showing signs that they will)."

Lag lag lag. The same stalemate between buyers and sellers happened in California, Arizona, Nevada and Miami. They're only ahead of us. It's a differential but global collapse. We're still paying bonuses (albeit 45% less) for Christ's sake. China is just now slowing down. The snapshot analysis looks good only temporarily. If you keep the cameras rolling, you will see much more pain.

There are a myriad of options one can employ to hold on and none of them are limited to renting in an expensive locale. Example, you can wait out the Brooklyn collapse by renting something out in Queens or Staten Island. Not particlulary desireable for most on this blog but it's a means to an end from a purely financial perspective.

But guess what? Rents are falling too (as I have been predicting consistently for a year now). The cat is out of the bag. There have been at least two threads within the last few weeks based on articles that proclaim rents in Manhattan are dropping and in some instances less than their Brooklyn counterparts. The Clermont, One Hanson Place, and others, are becoming condentals because nobody's buying them at these bubblicious prices. In other cases, tenants are just flat out losing their jobs and can't pay their rents. So sale prices were already out of whack with rents. Now they're even more out of whack.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 31, 2009 9:57 PM

Interesting. Why is June 06 the actual peak?

Posted by: mopar at January 31, 2009 10:55 PM

"Why is June 06 the actual peak?"

That's when the NY reading of 215.83, the highest on record, was recorded.

http://tinyurl.com/3x5p34

And, wow, as I reiterated above that rents were falling, The Times were busy with this piece.

'A Month Free? Rents Are Falling Fast'

http://tinyurl.com/d6fy7q

"While prices have started to slide in Manhattan, they are steadier in Brooklyn."

Because of their snapshot perspective, Team Bull will eat this shit up on tomorrow's inevitable thread on the piece. They will bypass the next sentence...

"Increasingly, however, there are deals to be found..."

IIIIIIIINCREEEEEEASIIIIIIIINGLY. It's a trend that shows no signs of turning around. Brooklyn rents will collapse to what the remaining employed can afford. Again, Historic Brownstone Brooklyn TM is an extension of Manhattan, not the other way around. Yes, another lag.

And the overwhelming majority of landlords cannot afford to wait out the softening rental market. That would equate to more than the difference. Unlike sale prices, rents will be "Falling Fast"!. The argument that people buy as refugees from the rental market is now officially dead.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 1, 2009 11:19 AM

Weekend Asshat Asskicking!!!!! OH Wee!!! Oh man please BHO stop it (Not really).

I think you Assheads better leave BHO alone.

And guess what Retards the unemployment data come out tomorrow.

Joblessness Probably Rose to 16-Year High: U.S. Economy Preview

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3SOzrLB0skY&refer=home

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The jobless rate in the U.S. probably jumped in January to the highest level in 16 years as slumping sales forced employers to slash staff, economists project reports this week will show.

Unemployment climbed to 7.5 percent, and payrolls fell by 530,000, the 13th consecutive decrease, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Labor Department figures Feb. 6. Other reports may show manufacturing, services and housing shrank further, signaling more firings ahead.

Yep! Go long tampons to plug up the bleeding..

Case Killa ROTFLMMFAO!!!!!!

The What (Damn BHO let the Ak-47 cool off)

Someday this war is gonna end...

BTW How about the Bear Mafia? more on this tomorrow.

Posted by: Return of The What at February 1, 2009 11:35 AM

Ha ha to "tampons" and "Ak-47" too.

I like Bear Mafia. La Cosa Nosedive.

I look forward to tomorrow.

***Bid half off peak comps***

Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at February 1, 2009 11:53 AM

We are actually predicting a 600-700,000 number. stay short for now.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at February 1, 2009 4:23 PM

"I'm actually really amazed at how prices in NYC are holding on. I thought for sure we'd see more declines by now. I'm actually getting more optimistic..."

my dear idiot Mopar, statements such as this truly show how truly ignorant, uneducated and/or plain stupid you really are...

Posted by: cornerbodega at February 1, 2009 11:03 PM

"DOW (BHO)I have a lot of respect for your analysis (way of thinking) but you still only have a 50% chance of being correct. Signs of a property stabilazation before June will mean we are backing away from the cliff. As you know trends turn on a spike... the case-Killa acceleration could well be that spike."

This is the prototypical idiot response. Courtesy of Aussie - Up/down is based on the flip of a coin. What an idiot. All the way from Singapore no less. HaHahahahhaha

Posted by: cornerbodega at February 1, 2009 11:07 PM

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January 30, 2009

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