« Martin Luther King Jr. Place: Small and Often Forgotten Open Thread »
January 19, 2009
Average Joes Giving Market a Heartbeat
Yesterday's cover story in the NYT real estate section was downright encouraging, didn't you think? The gist: There are a bunch of folks who have normal jobs with normal paychecks that have been patiently saving up in recent years as the real estate market zoomed beyond their reach who all of sudden are finding themselves in the position to buy sooner than they had imagined. And faced with the double-blessing of lower prices and lower interest rates, they are even able to afford bigger apartments than they thought. “The meat-and-potatoes buyers are coming out right now,” said Kristina Leonetti, a broker at the Corcoran Group. And you know what? They are out there actively looking (though maybe not in the Bronx). Confirming something that a senior member of a large brokerage firm told us last week, open houses have been well attended since the start of the new year. Any readers who fit this profile care to chime in?
For the Brave, the Moment Is Now [NY Times]
Photo by Amber Rhea on Flickr
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.brownstoner.com/mte/mt-tb.cgi/8016
Comments
The New York Times has been consistently one of the most egregious cheerleaders of the housing bubble.
That said, I myself am one of those "Average Joes" who has been attending open houses. Open houses which have been, contrary to this article, rather sparsely attended.
Every place I am looking I am finding falling prices. Still a way to go I think, but no matter, I am no longer in a hurry. Time, this time, is on my side.
Posted by: misterbubble at January 19, 2009 9:57 AM
Time is on my side, yes it is
Time is on my side, yes it is
Now you always say
That you want to be free
But you'll come running back (said you would baby)
You'll come running back (I said so many times before)
You'll come running back to me
Oh, time is on my side, yes it is
Time is on my side, yes it is
You're searching for good times
But just wait and see
You'll come running back (I won't have to worry no more)
You'll come running back (spend the rest of my life with you, baby)
You'll come running back to me
Go ahead, go ahead and light up the town
And baby, do everything your heart desires
Remember, I'll always be around
And I know, I know
Like I told you so many times before
You're gonna come back, baby
'Cause I know
You're gonna come back knocking
Yeah, knocking right on my door
Yes, yes!
Well, time is on my side, yes it is
Time is on my side, yes it is
'Cause I got the real love
The kind that you need
You'll come running back (said you would, baby)
You'll come running back (I always said you would)
You'll come running back, to me
Yes time, time, time is on my side, yes it is
Time, time, time is on my side, yes it is
Oh, time, time, time is on my side, yes it is
I said, time, time, time is on my side, yes it is
Oh, time, time, time is on my side
Yeah, time, time, time is on my side
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 10:06 AM
Another point on the "average Joes" who have been waiting for the market to fall to reality.
These average Joes have been ridiculed, laughed at and berated on this blog for -years-.
Now that the Times does a story, suddenly their plight is accepted, now they have their place.
Glad I waited, I have plenty of cash, don't -need- to buy and am waiting for reality to set in even deeper. 2 years ago I was told by countless brokers and anon people on blogs that my waiting was ridiculous, that prices would -never- come down.
The view is great from the top of my high horse...
Posted by: Prodigal_Son at January 19, 2009 10:11 AM
1. As misterbubble said, the Times has absolutely zero creditability when it comes to real estate. It never says anything negative about the city market. It also has a tendency to go ahead with front page articles on new "trends" based on interviews with about 5 people. Absurd.
2. What is "encouraging" about this so-called trend? The idea that people are flocking to open houses at ugly, poorly constructed new developments to spend absurd amounts of money on crappy apartments? The idea that a family of 4 would rather squeeze into a one bedroom in a new development than buy a brownstone in Bed Stuy or a larger co-op in an older building? The idea that some buyers are buying long before the market has had the needed adjustment? As a home owner I have no desire to see my equity disappear. And a massive RE crash would be bad for everyone. But it is pretty obvious that the city market needs to drop a lot more than it has before it is anywhere near healthy. So,again, what exactly was "encouraging"?
Posted by: shillstoner at January 19, 2009 10:21 AM
The return of the working classes, that's what's encouraging. Or maybe the revenge of the working classes is coming as the unemployed bankers flee to Dubai, Tokyo, and Ohio,
Posted by: denton at January 19, 2009 10:26 AM
"Yesterday's cover story in the NYT real estate section was downright encouraging, didn't you think?"
Nope...
"There are a bunch of folks who have normal jobs with normal paychecks that have been patiently saving up in recent years as the real estate market zoomed beyond their reach who all of sudden are finding themselves in the position to buy sooner than they had imagined."
Prices are still in "Retarded Land" and where is the financing is coming from, Candy Land Funding? The Average Asshat his seen a negative return on money and with inflation eroding his/her purchasing power I can't see anyone wanting to buy in this market.
"“The meat-and-potatoes buyers are coming out right now,” said Kristina Leonetti, a broker at the Corcoran Group."
Wow that's credibility! A Broker at Corcoan! Yeah I going to buy right now...
"Confirming something that a senior member of a large brokerage firm told us last week, open houses have been well attended since the start of the new year. Any readers who fit this profile care to chime in?"
Yeah that's reporting, like the Fulton St BID Brownstoner! A way to go.. Dumbass!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at January 19, 2009 10:30 AM
"The Average Asshat his seen a negative return on money and with inflation eroding his/her purchasing power I can't see anyone wanting to buy in this market."
What, I think the negative returns in the stock market are likely to drive people TO a real estate purchase as a means of preservation of capital. Yes, there will be deflation for a short time here but we will return to some inflation in a year or so and that will help real estate prices.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 10:37 AM
"What, I think the negative returns in the stock market are likely to drive people TO a real estate purchase as a means of preservation of capital."
When the value of the purchased asset goes down in price, right Dave! If you have this idiot managing your money,, please for GOD sake get away from him!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at January 19, 2009 10:42 AM
The average annualized rate of return for the S&P 500 from Jan 1, 1998 to Dec 31, 2008 was 1.49%. Real estate beat that and real estate has done far better than stocks from the point that both markets peaked.
Those facts cannot be argued. This is why I work in the stock market but have most of my personal assets in real estate.
Picking bottoms in either market is next to impossible but your house doesn't go anywhere close to zero.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 10:45 AM
Teachers, firefighters, social workers, train conductors, utility workers, hospital workers and others whose jobs do not revolve around or near the financial industry do not have a need to live near Manhattan. So, I don't think this news is encouraging for the owners of brownstones. The "meat and potatoes" buyers that I know are not looking for homes in brownstone Brooklyn or East Harlem. Many of them are looking in areas that Brownstoners would consider "fringe" or "way-out."
I don't know if Prodigal Son and misterbubble would qualify as "meat and potatoes" but either way they would both probably do better to wait a while because the prices in the areas that they are considering will no doubt come down. A NY Times article this weekend predicts that NYC will lose close to 200,000 jobs most of which are in the financial industry, so perhaps there will be a deal or two out there for them.
Posted by: Chaka at January 19, 2009 10:47 AM
WARNING: The referenced article is a paid advertisement. Reality does not necessarily support the sponsor's (Corcoran's/Prudential Douglas Elliman's) claims.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 10:49 AM
Someone doesn't understand rates of return. The math is pretty simple.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 10:49 AM
RE prices will come down some more over the next couple of years (I predict 40% off the highs). Unfortunately this comes at a time when the city's economy sucks. Therefore if you waited on the sidelines and you want to buy in the near future, you may be buying into a different city than say from 2007. Schools, amenities and transportation will all be worse (how bad who knows). With no new jobs and huge defecits, New York will be a different place. So you may be able to buy , but do you want to if you have to worry about your job security, your child's education and whether you will be robbed on your way to the subway.
Posted by: NewYawker at January 19, 2009 11:00 AM
"So you may be able to buy , but do you want to if you have to worry about your job security, your child's education and whether you will be robbed on your way to the subway."
If that comes to pass here--which it may--it will also be true all over. It is a national recession, not a New York one.
Posted by: shillstoner at January 19, 2009 11:12 AM
"whether you will be robbed on your way to the subway."
This is the kind of crap that always adds credibility to your argument.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 11:14 AM
I fit the meat-and-potatoes profile (first time buyer, looking in the $400s) but have been extremely discouraged by how little prices have fallen for 1-bedrooms. I'm looking to stay in BK Heights where I currently rent and am tired of brokers telling me that their 500 sq ft, $450K 1-br is 'extremely well priced for the neighborhood.' I continue going to open houses every week but with prices barely moving and most units needing a substantial amount of renovations which I don't want to commit time or money to, I'll just continue to attend open houses.
Posted by: fishermb at January 19, 2009 11:25 AM
I'm not quite an "average joe" salary-wise - I make a bit too much to qualify, but my wife and I are certainly among those who've increased their open house viewing lately as prices have started to drop. We're saving up and hope to get a decent deal somewhere by the end of this year.
Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 19, 2009 11:27 AM
Any guesses on how long the market will stay like this? I'd love to buy, but probably not for a year or so.
Posted by: alsawo at January 19, 2009 11:30 AM
daveinbedstuy, where are you from. I am a native new yorker and remember a time when crime was rampant and I'm not talking about the 70s, how about 1993. When 12 year olds are being mugged last week in brownstone brooklyn (read your local police blotter) this is not the glitzy New York that Seinfield, Friends and SATC promotes.
Shillstoner, My point is if this happens in New York and I agree it will happen in a lot of places. Will there be somewhere else to go. Are we headed back to the urban flight of 70s and 80s. Is everyone moving to Westchester and Long Island, like a generation ago did?
As quickly as New York got better over the last 10 years, it can go right back down. First it got too expensive to own a home, now it might be cheaper, but you have to pay $30K a year for private school.
Posted by: NewYawker at January 19, 2009 11:39 AM
Prices simply haven't fallen anywhere near enough for "meat and potatoes" buyers to be able to afford the neighborhoods we are all focused on. Prices in the past few years in Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights, BoCoCa, DUMBO and now even Fort Greene and Williamsburg only make sense when hundreds of thousands of Wall Streeters are making deep into the six and seven figures. Schoolteachers and firefighters simply don't buy million dollar condos on their salaries. I am of the view that Wall Street has changed forever. This is not a cycle. There has been a permanent and massive reduction in payroll in New York City, and it will take a few years for the effects of that reduction to be fully reflected in NYC real estate prices. Right now there are still few buyers out there who are either optimistic or rich and dumb, so we are seeing greatly reduced volume at still reasonably high prices. It will take a lot more volume to clear the market, and that volume will only happen at much lower prices.
I agree that the New York Times has very little credibility when it comes to real estate (is it Jayson Blair's new beat?).
Posted by: lechacal at January 19, 2009 11:45 AM
I don't think the city government will let New York go back to what it was in the 70s and 80s. Quite simply, they've realized that tourism is too valuable to the city, as is promoting it as a safe place to live. Budgets are going to be cut all over the place, I don't doubt, but I think we're going to continue to see a much, much stronger police presence than the city had during those decades.
I just don't think we're going to see a return to pushers, pimps, and prostitutes on every corner.
Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 19, 2009 11:45 AM
I mean, really, I realize Brownstoner would have been remiss in not acknowledging this article, but every person who posts on this site - bulls and bears alike - is too smart to see a puff piece in the Sunday Times (supported by little more than one or two editorially selected anecdotes and wishful quotes by some Corcoran brokers) as being probative of anything. Give me a break.
Posted by: ajaxclorox at January 19, 2009 11:47 AM
Alsawo - the real estate market corrects very slowly for a bunch of reasons, and after it hits bottom it will not move up quickly. Wait as long as you still have patience.
Posted by: lechacal at January 19, 2009 11:53 AM
I am buying, and this article is a crock of s**t.
Even if it is true that open houses are busy, that could just mean buyers are looking for bargains. The article doesn't give any examples of them finding any.
The woman in Bushwick doesn't seem to have gotten any special bargain. They didn't say how big the apartment was, but one bedrooms were selling for about that in 2007.
People may go to open houses, but it's premature to say the market is turning based on that.
What is happening in the rest of the country, where prices fell sooner and further than in NYC? Is anyone buying there?
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 11:53 AM
mopar - plenty of people are buying now in areas of the country that have had big corrections (at foreclosure sales, but they are buying). New York is just starting its correction and has a ways to go before the market hits a clearing level.
As I have said so many times, the story right now is volume, not price. When volume stops being the story, price will start.
Posted by: lechacal at January 19, 2009 11:57 AM
If open houses were busy, there would be more of them.
I don't read the NY Times anymore, I just look at the pictures.
Posted by: bayridgegirl at January 19, 2009 11:57 AM
Hi folks;
Just throwing in my two cents,much of which has already been said:
-I really think the NYT should have been honest and given credit to the true author of the piece,which was Corcoran or some other advertiser. Classic RE broker hype: the time to buy is NOW!
-This article does not conform to the reality that I see on the ground. I live in a high-end Park Slope condo, and here is what I see: a) the volume of sales has slowed considerably in my complex; b) nevertheless, prices have still held their own, at least for now. One and a half year ago a 3 bedroom simplex in my complex closed at $1.05M. Last month the same type of unit closed at $1.03M; c) The open houses in my complex are drawing zero traffic and d) the idea that Joe the Plumber is coming to take a look at units in my building is ludicrous. As Chaka said, these folks have no interest in buildings like mine, and are looking elsewhere.
Finally, I have to say that NewYawker is just too pessimistic. I'm a native of Brooklyn too,and I remember the bad old days well. The city's dysfuntion and crime in those days were due to a whole host of factors, not just an economic cycle. In fact, if you look at the statistics, crime in NYC started to take off in the mid-60's, when the economy was really flush. There is little, if any, correlation between crime and the economic cycle in NYC.
NYC is a hugely different place right now. While I am sure that we will be going through some tough times, and I agree that Wall Street will not the be the same place for a long time, I reamin fairly bullish about the city's prospects. NYC continues to attractive the creative class, which is the growth area of our economy, and Brooklyn captures a fair share of these people.
Posted by: benson at January 19, 2009 12:03 PM
"I don't think the city government will let New York go back to what it was in the 70s and 80s. Quite simply, they've realized that tourism is too valuable to the city, "
Cwbuecheler please tell me you are not from NYC! Only retards from OHIO say crap like this. You see dumbasses you are about to experience the real New York. The New York that I was born and raised in! You Asshats have no idea what's in store for you.
BTW The soul food restaurants on the corner of Fulton and Grand are closed, both of them and I don't know why our beloved beat reporter Brownstoner did not report on this. Maybe those "Shark Jumping" lesson are taking up too much time.
"daveinbedstuy, where are you from. I am a native new yorker and remember a time when crime was rampant and I'm not talking about the 70s, how about 1993. When 12 year olds are being mugged last week in brownstone brooklyn (read your local police blotter) this is not the glitzy New York that Seinfield, Friends and SATC promotes."
Amen Brother,, Amen!!!!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at January 19, 2009 12:05 PM
Another week, another slew of ignorant posts from Dibs. This statement pretty much speaks for iteself:
"most of my personal assets in real estate."
Posted by: cornerbodega at January 19, 2009 12:06 PM
I could not agree more with those who say market has much further to fall, and I found this NYT article a joke. How can the market already be turning when it's barely begun to fall? I too, have plenty of cash, an economical rental, and plenty of time. I am certain prices have to drop a lot more - yes, even in prime areas - and am seeing evidence of the start of that, but only the start. Here's to the average joes getting back in after all the years of skyrocketing prices - but I think those joes (and josettes) would do better to wait to save more money.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at January 19, 2009 12:24 PM
What -
I'm not from NYC. I'm from Syracuse. Which is like Ohio, only with more rain.
I lived in Clinton Hill in 1995, when there were still plenty of places there where you could find crack vials lying around on the street, and when you couldn't walk through parks or on busy sidewalks in broad daylight without being offered drugs. I had friends get mugged. I had homeless people follow me for multiple blocks. I had one dude scream "YOU OUT TOO LATE COLLEGE BOY!" and come running across the street at me during a late-night chinese food run (turned out he just wanted a dollar and a smoke - I gave him both). I've bought booze and cigarettes and white castle food through tiny holes in bullet-proof glass. Blah, blah, blah.
I've seen "your" NYC, and wouldn't be afraid of it even if it was coming back. It's not.
Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 19, 2009 12:29 PM
CWB;
Why do you waste your time trying to prove your "street creds" to The What? Do you think he's actually going to consider what you say? I advise you and all the Brownstone community: the best way to deal with him is simply to ignore him.
Posted by: benson at January 19, 2009 12:33 PM
benson - That's a fine question, and you're right. And I mostly do refrain from getting involved. I just think the obsession with Ohio is amusing. Like Cincinnati doesn't have bad neighborhoods?
Posted by: cwbuecheler at January 19, 2009 12:40 PM
"There is little, if any, correlation between crime and the economic cycle in NYC."
Benson, what do you think is the factor? Policing?
Dave, hedging against inflation by buying real property is one factor in our desire to buy. Interesting re the 1.49 percent average annualized return. Though I suppose if you'd picked a slightly different ten-year spread, say '97 to '07, the rate of return would be very different!
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 1:06 PM
CWB, you're right. Cincinatti, Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo all have much higher rates of violent crime than NYC. cf. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_rate
Posted by: Frederick Law Homestead at January 19, 2009 1:08 PM
"Why do you waste your time trying to prove your "street creds" to The What? Do you think he's actually going to consider what you say? I advise you and all the Brownstone community: the best way to deal with him is simply to ignore him."
Whoa Benson! Where did we have beef? The thing that cracks me up is people say to ignore "The What" but they tell people to ignore me. Now if you want to ignore someone then why tell them to ignore that person??!!! Just ignore them!! See how that work Benson now go change your depends and get your enfamil ready,, it's almost 2 o'clock...
The What (Why people make me hurt them??!!)
Someday these dumbasses will leave me alone...
Posted by: Return of The What at January 19, 2009 1:19 PM
FLH - but do they have higher crime rates than the "real" New York - you know, the one in the what's head?
Posted by: dittoburg at January 19, 2009 1:24 PM
Mopar;
Well, I am not a criminoligist, But here's just some of the factors that I believe contributed to the breakdown of those times:
-poor race relations and all its related items,such as "white flight". The middle class had little interest in helping the city. They wanted out.
-a change in the structure of NYC's economy. People today are frightened by the prospect of perhaps 200,000 being lost. In the 3 decades after WWII, NYC lost close to 800,000 jobs in its manufacturing sector, the sector that used to provide the livelihood for those on the bottom.
-incompetent political leadership. IMHO, there are few political leaders who have been as incompetent as Mayor John Lindsay. At the very time that the city's economy was changing, this guy provided lavish new benefits to both city workers and welfare recepients that the city could not afford. His was the administration that actually sent out city workers to recruit people to join the welfare rolls, with no sense of accountability. Under his watch, in the short course of just a few years, the welfare budget increaed to a level that had previously been that of the entire city's budget. How to accomplish this? Easy: he cut the city's spending down to near-zero on infrastructure. There were no upgrades to the subways and roads during this period, and all maintenance was deferred. We are still trying to catch up from the negligence of that time. The deterioration of the city's physical facilities led to an overall impression of a city trapped in a downward spiral, with no way out.
-finally, there was a more tolerant approach to crime during that time. Crime was believed to be a problem that could be solved by just increased spending on social problems, rather than putting thugs in jail.
Bloomberg and his possible competitors show no sign of repeating some of these mistakes. Race relations today are much,much better today than 30 years ago. I believe that NYC will pull through this tough spot.
Posted by: benson at January 19, 2009 1:45 PM
Again, cornerbodega shows his stupidity and will never be able to accumulate a downpayment making him very, very bitter.
Still engaging the loons!!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 1:57 PM
A few observations without taking sides in this debate...
Many sellers are more negotiable now than they were a year ago (or even a few months ago) and for those looking in the new conforming loan range of $625,500k or lower (NY, Kings, Queens, Bronx counties) if you find what you're looking for, go for it! The rates and prices are in your favor. But for those seeking a townhouse in a historic district (or near one) the situation remains challenging -- jumbo loan rates have not come down like the conforming and even for those lucky all-cash buyers there is still not much inventory available and may never be. As a three time home buyer (SF once, Bklyn twice) I'd recommend knowing your spending limits and if you see a house you love, get in the game and make an offer. I've always stayed put for 5 or more years and enjoy improving my residences -- and not even in a "luxe mode", but simply with smart improvements and steady maintenance, and thus far (knock wood) it has served me when I've resold. I've also never bought with the specific plan to resell for profit, but purchased with the goal of a comfortable and attractive residence while I'm there.
Posted by: heffe54 at January 19, 2009 2:04 PM
Eh Benson.. I know you was born and raise here right? Let me give the retards a scenario. Obama will be the 44th POTUS. If something happens to him, how long do you think "race relations" will last?? Maybe an hour or two? You see retards you are living in interesting times and are so delusional that when that time happens, you will not know what to do.
The Blackout of '77 destroyed Bushwick Ave in one night! It took 21 years for Bushwick Ave to come back. One night gone, twenty years to rebuild..
Ya'll are a bunch of retards and when things happen, you can read all of my old posts to see where you went wrong...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at January 19, 2009 2:16 PM
Benson, I greatly appreciate your level-headed, moderate, and well-reasoned posts - a rarity for most of these threads.
Posted by: squaredrive at January 19, 2009 2:24 PM
"...the Times has absolutely zero creditability when it comes to real estate. It never says anything negative about the city market."
Until the negativity is in your rearview mirror.
Have a look...
[http://njrereport.com/80sbubble.htm]
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 2:27 PM
I have a one bedroom in Boerum Hill that I planned to list in the low 400s this spring, but I actually have realtors telling me I should wait a year, especially since I don't need to sell. This article implies there is a demand for places like ours. Should I buck the trend and list it?
Posted by: kas at January 19, 2009 2:35 PM
Benson, I agree and thank you for posting. But I just have to note that some of your reasons are economic.
What, we are buying a place a stone's throw from the old fires and have discussed the very scenerio you mention.
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 2:43 PM
"What, we are buying a place a stone's throw from the old fires and have discussed the very scenerio you mention."
Mopar the knuckleheads on this Blog take things for a joke and the Blackout reference was stone cold reality! Things can get very hairy quickly! The Obama Gambit will be in full effect come tomorrow..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: Return of The What at January 19, 2009 2:53 PM
The future is unknowable although there will always be those who claim they know what to expect. The reality is that no one knows for sure, including the experts.
Tomorrow we are inaugerating a new President who seems to have tapped into the old American optimistic spirit we have not seen for awhile. I can't help but to feel at least somewhat buoyed by that although I know 2009 will not be a bed of roses; when was life in NY ever a bed of roses?
There will be thousands of jobs lost on Wall Street but there will be thousands of new jobs created to accomplish its reinvention. NYC has always been a place where there is lots of money to be made by the smart and ambitious. I don't see that suddenly coming to an end. The city is still a magnet, especially at times like now when there is so much corporate tearing down and building up to do.
Posted by: sam at January 19, 2009 2:54 PM
Kas - I would not make any decisions based on that article.
Many people here (it's the easy opinion these days) think that things will be worse in a year. The thing is, despite the tone of posts here, no one really knows. I've noticed some 1 BRs in that price range selling quickly, some sitting - of course it all depends on the specifics. I would look for comps on the market and watch them. That said, my 2 cents is that if you know you MUST sell within a year to 18months, I'd hedge my bets and sell now - things could in fact be worse in a year and you'll be stuck.
Posted by: squaredrive at January 19, 2009 2:55 PM
Well said, sam. Now wait for the What to come along, cut and paste your thoughts, and call you an Asshat.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 3:06 PM
"Someone doesn't understand rates of return."
Someone doesn't understand that the S market was based on the RE market which was based on Charles Ponzi. Someone also doesn't understand that the S market leads (buy/sell in a flash) while the RE market lags (buy/sell over months). RE will get murdered in the months/years to come.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 3:07 PM
I also think you're better off selling now - prices, while starting to drop, are still pretty high, and inventory low. Those who think this is only going to last a year are being very optimistic. The last real estate correction in this city took many years to play out and for prices to rise again. I would not be surprised if it took 5 years min this time around given how deep a hole we've dug for ourselves, and how severe a hangover this will require.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at January 19, 2009 3:07 PM
Mopar;
Point taken. Let me try to clarify my points (if possible!). The decline of the city's manufacturing sector was a long-term, irreversible macroeconomic trend. In the 60's and the 70's, it was not at all clear that the huge losses in this sector would be made up by gains in other growth sectors. It just appeared to all that the city was finished as a viable entity. At the same time that this was happening, the City Fathers chose to put their heads in the sand and pretend that things were just fine, and that the city could afford to go on a lavish spending spree for worker benefits and social services. In fact, the money was not there, so infrastructure spending was cut. All of these developments had a terrible impact on the psychology of the city.
So, to be specific, here are the big economic differences between then and now (with respect to crime):
-back then, the city was in the midst of a long secular decline, rather than the bottom part of the normal business cycle. Moreover, those affected by the loss of manufacturing were those at the bottom, who would be the group most likely to be involved with crime. There were no bright prospects for them. By contrast,the folks most hard hit by this cyclical downturn do have options. I don't see former investment bankers engaging in mugging out of some type of despair (at least, not physical muggings!).
-Although we've been given a heavy hit, I still don't see any evidence of the same defeatist attitude towards NYC that was so common 30 years ago. There is a much larger owner class in NYC today, and those with an investment here have an interest in making sure that things don't spiral out of control.
SquareDrive: thanks!
Posted by: benson at January 19, 2009 3:08 PM
"The woman in Bushwick doesn't seem to have gotten any special bargain."
Because she didn't. Bushwick? Are you kidding me? And her parents thought NORTH WILLIAMSBURG was dangerous. She got took.
They should remix this article into a video and televise it late night, say 2AM.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 3:10 PM
"When volume stops being the story, price will start."
QOTMFD!
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 3:12 PM
Miss Muffett advising sellers on when to sell. Now that's scary!!!!!
BHO you completely missed the point of the historic returns. Has nothing to do with one lagging the other. Shows how stupid you really are.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 3:19 PM
She bought in that building on Grove street too, the one that was amazingly mockable during its construction. Hell, I'm not even sure that's Bushwick... it's close to ENY.
Anyways, prices will adjust a great deal more, especially in the non-chip areas. I think.
Posted by: Heather at January 19, 2009 3:20 PM
"Obama will be the 44th POTUS. If something happens to him, how long do you think "race relations" will last?? Maybe an hour or two? You see retards you are living in interesting times and are so delusional that when that time happens, you will not know what to do."
What, I find myself inclined to agree with you. Sh*t can get ugly real fast. I don't think a whole nabe will go down like it did back then, but people are fooling themselves if they think there will never be another instance of civil disobedience. Or interesting times if a Katrina comes thru.
Posted by: denton at January 19, 2009 3:23 PM
"Should I buck the trend and list it?"
List it, kas. Get out now or accept less in a year.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 3:25 PM
There will always be incidences of civil disobedience, denton, and usually for good reason. It's when the Asshats turn violent that is the problem.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 3:28 PM
dibs, you're right! I meant disobedience without the civil.
Posted by: denton at January 19, 2009 3:32 PM
"The future is unknowable although there will always be those who claim they know what to expect. The reality is that no one knows for sure, including the experts."
But you must choose a position. What's yours?
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 3:34 PM
Miss Muffett and BHO here advising sellers!!!! I've never seen anything more ludicrous.
ALSO.....
"The future is unknowable although there will always be those who claim they know what to expect. The reality is that no one knows for sure, including the experts."
But you must choose a position. What's yours?
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 3:34 PM
So tell us, BHO, exactly when will the market bottom??? Plus or minus a month.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 3:37 PM
Well, DIBS, what's *your* prediction re: market bottom?
Would love to track these predictions over the next few years...
Posted by: Miss Muffett at January 19, 2009 3:43 PM
Civil disobediance and even race riots are possible, a terrorist attack to "test" the new president is possible, a tsunami is possible, why go on? I agree with Denton's post that the City is in much better shape today than twenty or thirty years ago when the common wisdom was that big old cities like NY were "over". There has been a huge reinvestment in the city's housing stock by everyone: corporate moguls as well as civil servants, of every race. This makes the city much more resiliant. So let's not drown in too little water. If real estate prices drop somewhat it would be a good thing by and large. I say this even though I own real estate and stand to lose, on paper, from a down market.
Posted by: sam at January 19, 2009 3:49 PM
It's unknowable Miss Muffett. I'd say sometime late this year. But its like buying stocks...better to wait and miss the bottom and pay on the way up giving up the first part of the move and be more certain that you're moving up.
But real estate is not like the stock market at all....as I tried to outline above. Real estate can be a home and nothing more, which is fine. It can also be an investment and a store of value. It's long term and its done better than the stock market long term as my facts above would indicate.
Late this year, maybe early next year. It doesn't matter unless you're trying to call the bottom which, like I said, is impossible, an exercise in futility, and a fool's game.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 3:49 PM
"BHO you completely missed the point of the historic returns. Has nothing to do with one lagging the other. Shows how stupid you really are."
Show me how smart you are and elaborate. What exactly did I miss? The decline of the stock market has run most of it's course. RE is just getting started. For RE measurments, you're taking shots at a moving (plummeting) target. Where did you previously mention the word "history" (maybe I missed that)?
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 3:50 PM
"So tell us, BHO, exactly when will the market bottom??? Plus or minus a month."
I've said this before and I'll say it again. When Case-Shiller YOY approaches zero. If you did this test for the previous collapses (80's/90's and recent) you'd be behind no more than 9 months on a bottom that has and will last for years. Damn good for RE.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 3:57 PM
Thats not what I was talking about jackass. I was talking about the ACTUAL returns over the past 10 years. That's history. Pretty simple actually.
10:45...read it again.
ANd if you really think RE prices are "plummeting" here in NYC you'd better go look up the definition of plummeting
Christ, why do I continue to engage the loons???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 3:59 PM
Deton I keep saying over and over again! Most of the Retards have no idea about the real New York! They have no idea about the New York in bad economic times, like during the 70's when Beame was begging for money from Washington DC. The 124 pound Skinny Asshats (Like Brownstoner) would not have a snowballs chance in hell here!
Those days are going to make a comeback like Welcome Back Kotter and I would like to see the "Value" in owning a Brownstone in a marginal neighborhood! Look what's going on in California right now! The Shockwave from the Mutant Asset Bubble implosion is coming your way!
California delaying tax refunds amid cash crisis
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE50F6JH20090116
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California will not pay state tax refunds for individuals and business that overpaid 2008 taxes, in order to conserve dwindling cash for priority payments including school spending and debt repayment required by state law, the state's controller office said on Friday.
That's the Taxpayers money for crying out loud!
The financial market turmoil that has Wall Street reeling is also slashing into California's revenues, which rely heavily on personal income taxes. They are shrinking due to the recession and rising unemployment and because stocks and other assets have lost so much of their value in recent months.
I rest my case..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at January 19, 2009 4:03 PM
It sounds like the real estate brokers believe "polite opinion," which is that the economy will get better around 2010. I don't believe it.
Wait, let me revise that.
Layoffs triggered by the domino meltdown of mortgages, then banking, then retail will level off by 2010. So maybe things will get better.
But if the US can't borrow any more, things will get a lot worse.
I also expect inflation to kick in in six months to a year.
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 4:04 PM
Correction: Just 80's/90's collapse not recent. I said 'recent' (meaning recent peak) because the test works for calling tops as well. So the NYC index shows a bottom and a top that was no sooner than 9 months when YOY changed sign (postive to negative or vice versa).
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 4:05 PM
Benson: Ah, poor management and different stakeholders. Very interesting. (I've been puzzling over this question for some time.)
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 4:10 PM
"Thats not what I was talking about jackass. I was talking about the ACTUAL returns over the past 10 years."
Doesn't change my argument. You're analysis ends in 2008 where the stock market took a sudden dive of 40% already. Going forward, RE will plunge more than the stock market from where the stock market is now because it lags. [Remove life support, doc.]
"Christ, why do I continue to engage the loons???"
Because you overpaidinbedstuy and the truth don't feel too good.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at January 19, 2009 4:13 PM
Hey What,
" I rest my case..
The What"
Do you promise?
Y'know, I'm born and raised here. Been in NYC all my life. I remember the 70s and 80s. And I am almost as much of a pessimist and realist as you. But your simplistic view of economics and socioeconomic dynamics is pretty naive. And like I said its not like I'm one of those Asshats you speak of. I remember the old NY. I have a relatively bleak outlook on the future of this city and this country. But you are just off the mark to think the "old NY"will return.
Posted by: Prodigal_Son at January 19, 2009 4:13 PM
Too many cheese shops.
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 4:28 PM
mopar...there's no such thing as "too many cheese shops."
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 4:34 PM
mopar,
cheese has been around longer than gentrification
Posted by: Prodigal_Son at January 19, 2009 4:46 PM
too many cheese shops?
OK, that is the cryptic message of the day.
Posted by: sam at January 19, 2009 4:48 PM
I think its a racially charged "code" phrase, sam.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 4:50 PM
Dave, I don't think so, mopar probably has been known to cut the cheese in church, so he does not want reminders of his humiliation on every street corner.
Posted by: sam at January 19, 2009 5:03 PM
I was in Grab a few weeks ago and the owner was talking about Brie being 'kid-friendly' as opposed to more flavorful cheeses and I'm thinking when I was a kid Velveeta and American and maybe cheddar were 'kid-friendly' and Brie was sophisticated!
I don't know if that's good or bad for NYC RE.
Posted by: denton at January 19, 2009 5:04 PM
mopar's a "she" sam.
denton...you're sure right as hell about that. Talk about a Mutant Asset Bubble. How the hell is brie "kid friendly" anyway. I don't think my parents knew what brie was!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 5:11 PM
My apologies to mopar,
I may be a she too you know
as in Samantha
right?
who is to know?
Posted by: sam at January 19, 2009 5:22 PM
Yes, and you could have been born Samuel and then become Samantha later in life. Come to the next party and then we'll all know
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 19, 2009 5:26 PM
Ha ha!
Thanks for the invitation Dave!
Posted by: sam at January 19, 2009 5:38 PM
"Y'know, I'm born and raised here. Been in NYC all my life."
And you want to be a Asshat? Wear tight assed jeans and be all smug and pertencious.
" I remember the 70s and 80s. And I am almost as much of a pessimist and realist as you."
no because if you was, you would not go back and forth with me. I know you want a rep PS but up won't get one out of me.
" I have a relatively bleak outlook on the future of this city and this country. But you are just off the mark to think the "old NY"will return."
Well I would not say that PS. You need to look what's happening in California right now! Anoonold is getting his Ass handed to him! California have a 41 Billion dollar deficit (yeah BILLION)! That shockwave is coming your way and if you was raised here, you would remember the good ole day of Mayor Beame begging President Ford for money. Ford told NYC to drop dead!
Now PS crawl away you have been PWNED..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: Return of The What at January 19, 2009 6:18 PM
who cares about the old days and mayor beame? ancient history. what's going on now is way more interesting. people are into living in the city and find suburban life boring and conformist. This is a golden age for NYC although it may not be so golden for some who live here.
NYC still has a way to go to match London, Paris, and Tokyo in terms of cost of living. don't count on real estate becoming too affordable or the Met selling its Van Goghs in order to pay its utility bills, that ain't gonna happen, this is still big-money-ville, even if some, or many, go broke.
Posted by: sam at January 19, 2009 6:40 PM
Dave, you used to be a lot more even tempered in your comments. Did the bears get to you? Your posts are becoming dull and emotional.
Posted by: lechacal at January 19, 2009 7:39 PM
Sam - do you actually know Paris well? I do, and totally disagree that it's that much more expensive than NYC, especially when it comes to real estate. Another bogus argument for why NYC prices will hold up - they aren't, and they won't.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at January 19, 2009 8:54 PM
Also, DIBS, as has been pointed out here many times, it's actually much easier to time RE markets than stocks since they move so slowly and the writing tends to be on wall for long time before major shifts.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at January 19, 2009 8:58 PM
Miss Muffet, I thought no one ever bought or sold anything in Paris, that they just lived in places handed down by their ancestors, and that the red tape is so enormous it takes ten years to close on a place. What are prices like? Should I give up on Bushwick and buy in the 10th or the 13th, or is it already too late for that? Of course I have a rather nice job in New York but I have always wanted to live in Paris.
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 9:28 PM
Or, wait, maybe Vincennes! It's on the metro 1 line and in 1983 the cafe by the subway entrance was good.
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 9:30 PM
BTW, even if the layoffs stop in 2010, it could take years for the economy to start growing again and for people to find other work.
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 9:32 PM
"Dave, you used to be a lot more even tempered in your comments. Did the bears get to you? Your posts are becoming dull and emotional."
Yep that flagpole is all the way up Dave's ass!! Kinda hurts, Huh.
Yo Dumbasses enjoy Obama day because you Retards will blame him for everything!
America home of the Delusional Retards!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at January 19, 2009 10:10 PM
What, I thought you were in Washington?
Posted by: mopar at January 19, 2009 10:29 PM
I have to laugh at this parade of dunderheads claiming that they know the real Brooklyn, from back in the day. Back in what day? the 1800's? the 1900's or more recently? Each period had it's share of good and bad no matter how you look at it. Ever read Last Exit to Brooklyn? Hint, it takes place a few years before most here were born, and it's not a nice place. Ever seen a book of photos of seedy New York by Weegee? It ain't a day at Disneyland.
These morons seem to think that there is some vast army of unwashed and unkempt hooligans ready to spring up from the sewers at the first hint of an economic decline. This picture is more a representation of watching too many Michael Jackson Thriller videos than any meaningful understanding of the sociology of crime.
And even if there was an uptick in the stats, is it somehow anything useful to wish for? or is it perhaps, more an indication of a deep seated feeling of inadequacy and economic impotence on the part of the complainer, in a transparent attempt to exact vengance for a perceived wrong.
Whatever the city morphs into over the next few years, menacing or not, there will always be a Second Amendment, that is, until liberals try to completely eradicate the one amendment that protects all others.
Posted by: Legion at January 19, 2009 11:17 PM
Mopar, your view of Paris is quaint but outdated. Sales and closings can happen very quickly, and there are plenty of places for sale, just like here. The big difference is that there's not really an equivalent to Brooklyn - you're either in Paris or in the suburbs, and the suburbs, while just outside the city line, have a different status and it's not quite "hip" the Brooklyn has become. That said, plenty of people buy in the suburbs or the outer arrondissements (further away from city center/more on outskirts of city), which are cheaper. The RE market in Paris has stayed strong up until recently, but everyone there, like here, is predicting declines are inevitable. London, meanwhile, has tanked from what my British friends tell me. Don't know about Tokyo, but it certainly has tanked in the past.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at January 19, 2009 11:50 PM
I don't like to consider myse;f a "meat amd potatoe buyer" I like the term vulture better. I would like other buyers like me to buy from all those stupid buyers that overpaid for their homes thinking they were the ones that were so smart for buying and everyone else was so stupid for renting. How the tables have turned. I think you should not only put a for sale sign up but also a stated reason like" For Sale-Because we were too stupid and greedy and overpaid for it" or " For Sale-We want a do over anda pass for beingtoo stupid"
Posted by: hannible at January 20, 2009 5:57 AM
hannible....you were really on here at 5:57 AM????!!!!! Get a life man.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at January 20, 2009 8:52 AM
Yes Sir e Bob I get up really early! I work for a living. I earn my money. I don't buy a home I can't afford because it is over-inflated by the banks by 400% and then ask the government for help when making the monthly payments are too high for me Boo Hoo. Trust me I was out with sweet company last night too.
Posted by: hannible at January 20, 2009 10:44 AM
Hannible, nobody in Carroll Gardens is asking the government for a bailout. Furthermore, sale prices are still rising there for now. You don't seem to grasp the basics of how people buy homes.
Posted by: mopar at January 20, 2009 11:09 AM
Oh please spread the light and knowledge on how people buy homes. Only you mopar can have the nerve to say that home prices are still going up in Carroll Gardens. Must have been that three day weekend drinking. I will stick with the simple basic you have 20 percent as a down payment you buy if you don't you rent, so if most people have 50-60,000 dollars saved for a down payment what is the value of a home. I am not talking about those rich doctors and lawyers like yourself that don't really have to work to make good money.
Posted by: hannible at January 20, 2009 1:52 PM
Hannible, I am buying a heap in Bushwick. Give me a break.
Posted by: mopar at January 20, 2009 11:17 PM
God Bless You! I wish the best to you. You can tell I have it in for the ones that bought out of greed trying to make a quick flip and profit spoiling it for the rest of us that believed in the American Dream
Posted by: hannible at January 21, 2009 10:11 AM
Latest Restaurant Additions
-
Le Barricou
added November 20, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Der Schwarze Kölner
added November 19, 2009 12:00 PM in Fort Greene -
Oak Wine Bar & Café
added November 18, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Mr. Wonton
added November 17, 2009 12:00 PM in Park Slope -
Casa Rosa
added November 16, 2009 12:00 PM in Carroll Gardens -
Cousin John's Café & Bakery
added November 13, 2009 12:00 PM in Park Slope -
Elote
added November 12, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Miracle Grill
added November 11, 2009 12:00 PM in Park Slope -
Phoebe's Cafe
added November 10, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Ruthie's
added November 9, 2009 12:00 PM in Clinton Hill, Downtown Brooklyn
Post a comment
Please be patient while your comment is published. It may take a moment.