« Radusky Hits Red Hook Brooklyn Food & Drink Round-Up »
December 10, 2008
Recovery Sooner Than Later?
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.brownstoner.com/mte/mt-tb.cgi/7561
Comments
This may sound like jibberish to many but the moves over the past few days indicate that the market is clearly seeking "beta." That means it is chasing stocks that are the ones likely to go up the most when the market goes up. The past few days have produced some dramatic, broad based, beta-chasing high volume moves throughout Asia. Many stocks and markets are moving UP through their 50 day moving average which is something a lot of market technicians look for. Last night foreigners (US and EU mutual funds) were climbing all over themselves to buy stocks in Taiwan and Korea. Both those markets have a high proportion of high tech names, the highest beta of any industry.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 11:21 AM
Ms. Muffet ain't gunna like this news, that's for sure.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 11:23 AM
Nor will HobokenRocks get his brownstone in BH for $800k. And the What isn't positioned for a rally.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 11:25 AM
I would be very happy if the market did recover sooner than later of course but I will not hold my breath waiting for it to happen. Although I must say, more than the What or Muffett or Hoboken, I would like to see the crown prince of pompous self importance, DOW/25to50/Brownstoneshalfoff/homeskillet have his grand plan deflated. That would bring a smile to my face that would last months.
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 11:31 AM
Too funny. Big rally, economic recovery, home prices back to '05. High beta --Dave, you crack me up. Out of curiosity --since your day trader screens are such a wellspring of information --which industry is going to absorb all the white collar unemployed? You do realize that, absent another bubble, actual productive wealth will be at the foundation of any recovery? What's it going to be? Or should I put Play Dough in my microwave, and hope it turns to gold?
Posted by: Whuh at December 10, 2008 11:31 AM
I think there may be a rally (and for the sake of my wife's 401k, I'm hoping for one), but I don't think it will be long lived and I'd be careful of buying any equities without being ready to sell it quick or hold it a long long time.
Posted by: northsloperenter at December 10, 2008 11:33 AM
Please don't confuse the Stock Market or even the "economy" as New York City Real Estate.
I happen to agree that the massive amounts of $ being pumped into the system, time and a new administration will likely result in the economy beginning to change direction (out of free fall) and we might even see some growth by the end of '09 BUT NYC - which is heavily dependent on a 'failed' industry and which hasnt seen the price drops of the rest of the country is in for a long long road - especially in RE. So while you might make a buck or 2 in the Stock Market, I predict housing prices will be falling here for a long long time to come.
Posted by: fsrg at December 10, 2008 11:35 AM
last week someone here queened out about there being condos and coops in nyc for under 100K and i was like shut up youre totally lying.. anyway i look in AM new york and various other places and im like whoa, there really are apts and stuff for well just about 100K. 1.) i cant afford that now anyway 2.) normally you put 10-20 percent down right? 3.) would i even be able to get a loan for that? and 4.) what would the mortgage be on a 100K place?
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 11:35 AM
Whuh...the US is one of the few places in the world where people consistently reinvent themselves after failing at something. In many other countries its looked down upon, exhibits bad face or quashes self esteem.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 11:36 AM
wasder: re: DOW/25to50/Brownstoneshalfoff/homeskillet - What is his 'grand plan' beyond buying a house for the Mrs. when/if prices come down some more?
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 11:36 AM
i think im going to be on big brother this summer :)
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 11:39 AM
You must truly be a blind idiot if by now you didn't know that even in the best case equities scenario that housing will continue to get pummeled...
Posted by: cornerbodega at December 10, 2008 11:41 AM
I would not call this piece "news" - it's an opinion piece. During NYC's last RE market downturn, the housing downturn happened after the stock market went down - they do not move in lock-step. A bubble is a bubble, and there is no denying that NYC real estate grew into a huge bubble in the last 10 years. Even if the stock market rallies, that does not mean that the RE bubble magically vanishes. Plus, the market has rallied many times in the last few months, and then plunged again - there's an unprecedented amount of uncertainty and volatility these days. We are in uncharted territory, though most experts and officials, including Obama, do not expect this to be a quick recovery. Bulls want to hear good news, but you cannot wish away a decade of irrationality in the markets and hope that things magically recover very quickly.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 10, 2008 11:42 AM
Can someone let me know what the next bubble is scheduled to be? I want to get a head start.
Posted by: dittoburg at December 10, 2008 11:46 AM
ie. tech bubble
Posted by: cornerbodega at December 10, 2008 11:46 AM
cobblehiller--he seems to have this notion that if he can come up with a clever enough tagline and repeat it often enough that he can foment some kind of buyer's revolution (he has said this himself) that will overthrow the old order.
I jest somewhat here but he has definitely expressed things that make me feel he has a highly overblown sense of his own importance.
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 11:46 AM
MM - I agree with your point on an intellectual basis but I have to point out one of your statements for shear amusement:
"We are in uncharted territory, though most experts and officials, including Obama, do not expect this to be a quick recovery."
At this point with all of the obvious examples - can't we all agree that "experts and officials" are essentially guessing just like everyone else - and therefore really arent experts at all.
Posted by: fsrg at December 10, 2008 11:49 AM
Also, even the author of this piece concedes there are too many unknowns to accurately predict a "bottom" to the stock market and he references all the incorrect predictions of the past. One of the key unknowns he cites is the housing market which could still fall significantly further. I would hardly call this "good news" (since, again, it isn't even news) - the way it's quoted here is misleading, and just seems like Brownstoner's fodder to the bulls to throw them a bone, but if you read more closely, in no way does this specifically predict good news about the NYC housing market.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 10, 2008 11:49 AM
I'm thinking that the next bubble will be "Alternative" energy or just energy. Whatever that means.
Ah, thanks wasder. I totally see DOWwhateverhisnameistoday as bit on the smart ass side of things. But I find it entertaining!
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 11:50 AM
Whuh don't bother with Dave! He is trying to get his "Pixie dust" to work again.
Wasder looks like Dow is getting to ya! Are you afraid he will buy a cheaper house on your block??? Looks that way to me.
"Whuh...the US is one of the few places in the world where people consistently reinvent themselves after failing at something. "
Like Hedge Funds Dave?????!!!!
2009 is coming, be very very afraid...
The What (But.. But.. The Balance sheet looked fine a couple of months ago..)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at December 10, 2008 11:56 AM
It is entertaining or I wouldn't be calling him out like that. He knows that he will respond.
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 11:57 AM
Well fsrg, I think there's a big difference between anonymous bloggers waxing on their thoughts, and economists with many years of experience. Sure, some of them failed to see this coming, most glaringly Bernake/Paulson (or were praying we would dodge the bullet), but others, like Nouriel Roubini, predicted it quite accurately, and even Obama was warning early on about the sub-prime crisis. There are obvious reasons to try to look the other way before the crisis hits (read: greed/denial), and during those years, the nay-sayers who pointed out the emperor wasn't wearing any clothes were dismissed as party-poopers, crackpots, or "bitter renters". But now that those outlyers have been proven correct and it's undeniable that there was an unsustainable bubble, there is much broader consensus about the magnitude of the problem.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 10, 2008 11:57 AM
"Wasder looks like Dow is getting to ya! Are you afraid he will buy a cheaper house on your block??? Looks that way to me."
I just said I find him entertaining but definitely he has ego management issues. anyone buying a house on my block right now would be buying it cheaper than I bought mine, there is no doubting that.
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 12:01 PM
Gooood morning What!
I finally read that Vanity Fair piece last night...WOW, the kids are using Food Emporium discount cards - heavy. I mean they're at the market themselves! Shocking! Favorite quote: "Coupons, They're all the rage!".
Frankly, the only problem with that article was that it was too short...I loved the personal assistant thinking to herself that the woman she worked for should probably sell a few of those $10,000 handbags!
$10,000 could support me for months! And that's what she spent on a handbag! hahahahahahahahahahaha...ahem. I'll try to sober up now.
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 12:05 PM
Also What, how does somebody become your "homeskillet"?
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 12:05 PM
"2009 is coming, be very very afraid..."
Somehow this doesn't leave me shaking in my shoes. I have other things to worry and rejoice over. Namely the birth of my second child in a matter of days! That's right, and its another girl so my poor male tuchus ("ass" for you non members of the tribe) will be surrounded by all y chromosomes. Now that is something to fear (haha).
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 12:08 PM
wasder, MAZEL TOV!
I had no idea you were going to have another (apologies if you mentioned this before). That is definitely something worth rejoicing over. Congratulations and best of luck with the delivery. Let us know how it goes.
Posted by: Biff Champion at December 10, 2008 12:12 PM
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
should be best of luck to your wife on the delivery, unless you're planning on being the second male in 2008 to give birth.
Posted by: Biff Champion at December 10, 2008 12:13 PM
Thanks Biff. Will definitely make an announcement here when it happens. Due date is x-mas eve but I suspect she will come a little early.
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 12:15 PM
Best wishes to you and Mrs. wasder! Hope all goes quickly and easily.
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 12:20 PM
Congratulations Wasder and a Capricorn baby and think of this, you can save money buying Xmas and Birthday gifts together!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at December 10, 2008 12:22 PM
"Brownstoner's fodder to the bulls to throw them a bone"
METAPHOR OVERLOAD
Posted by: z at December 10, 2008 12:22 PM
This is a sucker's rally. I'm shorting the Dow. There will be no real recovery in 2009, and when it comes, it'll be U-shaped.
Hopefully, the next bubble will be a Green bubble.
Posted by: FatLenny at December 10, 2008 12:24 PM
Yes, Wasder, I agree that kids really put things in perspective. The main reason I want to buy a home is to provide a great place to raise my kids, and some financial security for them long-term. And the main reason I'd like a discount on a home purchase price is so I don't have the tremendous income pressure needed to afford a big mortgage since time with my kids is a top priority. But obviously, my kids don't care about real estate - a valuable lesson when we sold our place and moved to a rental is that they adjusted so easily, since all that really matters to them is the love of their family and some basic comforts. Of course, I care about real estate and it's a bit of an obsession (since we're looking to buy a permanent home for our family), but at the end of the day, nothing is more important than family. That was my point, by the way, with Aussie's doom and gloom pronouncements about how a big NYC decline in prices spells the END of everything. Sorry, but when I see my kids' smiling faces every morning, it's always a new beginning, no matter what's happening in the markets! Wasder, you sound like a very grounded person - my sincere congratulations on this joyous news!
Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 10, 2008 12:24 PM
"2009 is coming, be very very afraid..."
October 26th or whatever the hell day you predicted as the end came and went also.
And it was a great one. Good co-op meeting.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 12:25 PM
"I finally read that Vanity Fair piece last night...WOW, the kids are using Food Emporium discount cards - heavy. I mean they're at the market themselves! Shocking! Favorite quote: "Coupons, They're all the rage!"."
Cobblehiller people think this is a joke. We are entering to most turbulent economic times in history and if you not aware of what's going on, you will lose everything!
"Frankly, the only problem with that article was that it was too short...I loved the personal assistant thinking to herself that the woman she worked for should probably sell a few of those $10,000 handbags!"
And to think she could've went to Canal Street and bought the same bag for 40.00!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at December 10, 2008 12:26 PM
People that overpayed for their homes please stop saying the housing market is not going down in Brooklyn so you don't feel stupid for overpaying for your house. People like me are trying to buy the only problem is we are waiting for prices to come down alot more. And stop raising rents because poor hard working tenents don't have to pay for your greed and stupidity.
Posted by: hannible at December 10, 2008 12:28 PM
"There are obvious reasons to try to look the other way before the crisis hits (read: greed/denial), and during those years, the nay-sayers who pointed out the emperor wasn't wearing any clothes were dismissed as party-poopers, crackpots, or "bitter renters". But now that those outlyers have been proven correct and it's undeniable that there was an unsustainable bubble, there is much broader consensus about the magnitude of the problem."
This is the QOTD!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: Return of The What at December 10, 2008 12:33 PM
Good luck Wasder!!! That is great news. Best to your family.
Posted by: slopefarm at December 10, 2008 12:36 PM
"Congratulations Wasder and a Capricorn baby and think of this, you can save money buying Xmas and Birthday gifts together!"
Thanks What. Truly appreciated, though the xmas/b-day thing is complicated even with me being jewish and all...
"Wasder, you sound like a very grounded person - my sincere congratulations on this joyous news!"
Thanks Miss Muffett and believe me I understand where you are coming from. I bought the house I bought in the location where I bought largely out of the same considerations you face. I love my house, but it was definitely a compromise choice on some levels. That is life though isn't it--getting as much of what you want within a reasonable framework and making due with everything else. That's my life anyway.
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 12:41 PM
"And stop raising rents because poor hard working tenents don't have to pay for your greed and stupidity."
I think you need to get a better paying job or a 2nd one, because market forces are responsible for setting rents, not a landlord here or there.
Get a clue.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 12:43 PM
"stucker rally"
just because some guy says we going to have stock recovery in 3 to 6 months doesn't mean it's going to happen ... if the Fed thought all they needed was $350,000,000,000 (which Paulson has already spent in the last 2 months) to solve the financial crisis, they wouldn't have asked for $700,000,000,000 for TARP or guaranteed over 5,000,000,000,000 assets. Banks will need more money/capital when mortgage assets continue to fall and credit card debt blow up. More pain is coming. Unemployment is headed towards 8-10% if we lucky. Even if mortgage interest rates goes to 4.5% doesn't mean home prices will stablize or go up if the economy keeps losing over 500,000 jobs every month (unless you make loans to jobless people).
Posted by: ZooLander at December 10, 2008 12:44 PM
Or better yet hannible, stop acting like you DESERVE to live in Park Slope or Brooklyn Heights, and go find a neighborhood a couple more subways stops out.
You can find a lovely 2 bedroom in Midwood for 1500 bucks.
Enjoy!
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 12:45 PM
Prices on homes are going down another 10-15 percent at least. The market may have a couple of gasps of air in it still. Remember I wrote a couple of weeks ago we will get a runup which would be the mother of all fakes. Its starting to runup and I don't buy it. Banks are not lending , homes are still foreclosing and I still don't have my 800k bh home.. The US printing press is throwing money all over the place except where it will help the most. The USA is a consumption based economy and with credit lines being lowered we will see less spending. The Sp 500 can possibly get all the way to 1150 but then we will go back down and if this happens watch out below because we will see sp 400-600. First the SP 500 has to pass the 918 mark to keep going up. The one positive thing I have heard is getting the mortgage rate to 4.5 %.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 12:45 PM
11217 - Baloney! Of course it's the landlords that set the rents you silly fool. What's come over you? Your insensitivity is really stunning.
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 12:47 PM
The landlords set the rent, but people pay it.
You don't like the rents, don't live there and move somewhere cheaper.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 12:48 PM
"Good luck Wasder!!! That is great news. Best to your family."
Slopefarm---you must have written this when I was writing my last post so I missed it. Thanks so much. How are you doing? What is the news on the farm?
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 12:52 PM
Late 80's/early 90's NYC recession= 7 yr supply of housing.
08-10 NYC recession=less than 1 year supply of housing.
Low interest rates too. When I got a mortgage at the tail end of the early 90's recession my rate was 8.75%. Next year could be a great time to buy, unless those ex Lehman bros become crack whores.
Posted by: billyboomer at December 10, 2008 12:54 PM
If interest rates hit 4.5 than I would encourage people to purchase homes. Though I would not be paying more than 15-20 times yearly rent on those homes. And that is only in good locations...
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 12:57 PM
When my parents bought their house in the 80's the interest rate was 12%.
Housing may very well be cheaper next year, but interest rates are eventually going to go up significantly.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 12:58 PM
The economic problems are way beyond the stock market by now. Even if the market recovers in 3 months all the companies that have and are about to lay off people and cut projects are not going to reinstate those positions overnight. Slowly, over years, but not for a long time. My fortune 500 company has announced that it will be making major changes to the structure of the company which will entail large layoffs. Every company I know of has either alreaddy laid off people or has announced palns to do so in April. Those positions are gone for years to come--and those people won't be buying brownstones, and may need to sell the ones they own.
Posted by: shillstoner at December 10, 2008 1:00 PM
I just did the 15-20 times rent calculation on my place and according to that I bought my place at EXACTLY 15 times the annual rent. I mean, to the dollar assuming what I believe it would rent for, even taking a slight discount on the rent figure to account for the ailing economy.
Never actually done that calculation before just to see.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:00 PM
How old are you 11217? 25? 30? Do you still live at home?
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 1:02 PM
My company too is making some big new decisions to readjust to the economy, scaling back, restructuring, etc. Just about every vendor I speak to when we have to explain our cutbacks says that they are getting this from all over. And my boss keeps reminding me that this is just the beginning. We are working hard to responsibly weather this crisis, and I think many, many others are doing the same. This inevitably will affect the housing market in NYC at all levels, and for a while, since the cuts have barely begun.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 10, 2008 1:03 PM
Don't be jealous I'm young, handsome and own my own home cobblehiller.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:07 PM
11217 what location? In a bad housing market people become pickier.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 1:08 PM
"My company too is making some big new decisions to readjust to the economy, scaling back, restructuring, etc"
My company in the last two weeks has just hired an additional employee, gave out hefty xmas bonuses equal to one week's salary for every year you've worked at the company, and we're having a huge holiday party next week at one of the nicest restaurants in the city.
What was your point exactly?
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:11 PM
"Don't be jealous I'm young, handsome and own my own home cobblehiller."
And Ghey..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: Return of The What at December 10, 2008 1:12 PM
ugh maybe here might be the best place to ask. let's say (knock on wood this doesnt happen) i got laid off. what would be the first thing to do? i mean duh yeah you apply for unemployment, but how exactly does that work? yeah i know i can google it but i fear if i google it that it might make it happen so im not googling anything right now. let's say i have zero dollars saved. what would happen? that is beyond scary. i am totally going to start saving from now on. even if it's just 50 bux a week.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 1:12 PM
Named street in Park Slope a block from the Park.
Bought it 2 years ago.
Never regretted it for a moment. It's well within my means and I've got about 3 years worth of mortgage payments in my "rainy day fund"
Any other fear mongering tricks up your sleeves guys...?
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:13 PM
Rob,
Saving a small amount per week would be fantastic. I'd recommend ING...they have a really easy and dare I say "fun" website which makes saving a breeze. Ok interest rate also, and you can have it set up to just automatically move money from your checking to savings each month.
Every little bit helps. 50 bucks a week would be huge...think about it...in one year you will have save 2600 bucks!
Not bad.
Start small and you'll see how fast it adds up.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:15 PM
"yeah i know i can google it but i fear if i google it that it might make it happen so im not googling anything right now."
if that's how you feel, then google "how to win lottery" or "becoming immortal."
Posted by: z at December 10, 2008 1:17 PM
11217 - glad to hear your company is doing so well, but you are in a distinct minority. That's the point.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 10, 2008 1:19 PM
11217 - If only everyone who bought homes were as conserative as you, the economy wouldn't be in the situation it is now ... the point is that alot of people bought homes with no "rainy day fund" and if they lose their job, they lose their home.
Posted by: ZooLander at December 10, 2008 1:21 PM
quote:
Every little bit helps. 50 bucks a week would be huge...think about it...in one year you will have save 2600 bucks!
i think that's actually WHAT keeps from saving. :( 50 bux a week is a huge amount to scrimp to save, but then at the end of the year ugh im just going have 2600? that blows. tho i guess 2600 is better than zero. grrrr. if i wasnt born in jersey city i would SO not want to live here in nyc and move to a cheaper city.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 1:23 PM
11217, You are one of the lucky ones. I am now seeing plenty of my friends either happy to have a job or getting laid off on wall street. That brownstone buyer is probably getting hit the hardest during this downturn.
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 1:24 PM
In my circle of friends and colleagues, I am not in the minority.
And that's my point.
I have two friends, in fact who were laid off who work in the finance world and both have landed great jobs in the city.
Other than that, I have 2 friends who just got significant raises and have now begun looking for apartments to buy in Brooklyn...both are in their late 20's...
Perhaps you just run in circles where people are negative and don't work hard enough.
America was created as the land of opportunity, not the land of, I want everything handed to me on a silver platter, or I'll complain incessantly about it.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:24 PM
11217 sometimes you come across as a bit of a snob.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 1:27 PM
Rob, in 5 years that's 13,000 dollars!! Not including the interest you'd accrue!
And you have to figure that each year you'll (hopefully!) make more money.
It's a process, but as you said...it's certainly better than zero.
And to give you a reference point and make you hopefully feel a little better...OVER HALF the population of the United States over 55 have LESS than $10,000 dollars saved.
So think about it ...in 5 years you'd have more saved than MOST 55 year olds!
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:27 PM
"11217 sometimes you come across as a bit of a snob."
And I realize that, Rob.
I'm trying to work on it.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:29 PM
11217 - to imply that saying businesses are struggling now means that I "run in circles where people are negative and don't work hard enough" is absurd. Your evidently charmed life is the exception now, not the rule. Good for you! My friends and I work plenty hard and are positive that we'll get through this crisis one way or another - and none of us wants everything handed to us on a silver platter (where did that comment come from!). But you must be a blind-folded pollyanna to think that this economy won't hurt real estate. I'm really not sure what *your* point is.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 10, 2008 1:30 PM
People don't believe the hype. Deflation and high debt mean that it will take years for this country to get better. Sure we will have spikes in the stock market but those will be bear market rallies... The only way out of this is to bail everyone out or just go thru it and lower our debt. Banks are in no position to keep lending like drunken sailors...
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 1:32 PM
Oh don't worry I am waiting for homes to start foreclosing in Brooklyn Heights and in Carroll Gardens and then will I start looking to buy. By the way I will pay cash. If I was not stupid enough to buy into the housing bubble I sure am not going to buy now. Plus I would like to see alot of wannabe homeowners who don't even know how to change a light bulb leave the neighborhood first. and take your shappy high class coffee stores with you I make my own.
Posted by: hannible at December 10, 2008 1:32 PM
Part of the reason I come across that way Rob, is because there are SO many entitled people in this world and it makes me angry.
Cobblehiller accusing me of being 25 and living with my parents?
Excuse me...I've worked hard for what I have and appreciate it very much, so I feel the need to defend myself.
I look at my grandparents who each worked 3 jobs to make ends meet and people on here are complaining about not being able to afford a neighborhood as if it's the end of the world.
So move! or get another job! Don't sit around and complain all day and try to make those who HAVE WORKED HARD feel bad about it.
I have nothing to feel bad about. I'm doing my thing, and nothing The What, or cobblehiller or whoever will change that.
More people need to get off their asses and go do something about their situation instead of waiting for the government or their neighbor or the commenters on brownstoner to do something about it.
It's really kinda sad to read a lot of these posts.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:33 PM
I wonder if New York isn't a different animal afterall. I mean, maybe San Francisco shouldn't have been as expensive as NYC these last 20 years. Now that prices there are down 20-30% and prices are down here (10?), I wonder if maybe that's the natural correction.
You gotta think that not all markets are going to get as hit as hard. And I've always thought all the co-ops in NYC are a big help in this market. Banks may have let people get in over their heads, but co-op boards take a much closer look.
Posted by: Ringo at December 10, 2008 1:33 PM
i'm impressed that someone who misspelled his own username has the cojones to call others "stupid."
Posted by: z at December 10, 2008 1:34 PM
(last comment directed to hannible the cannible)
Posted by: z at December 10, 2008 1:35 PM
"If I was not stupid enough to buy into the housing bubble I sure am not going to buy now."
So was my previous landlord who paid 450K for his house on the Upper West Side and sold it for 7.8 million stupid...?
Please explain.
I don't argue that some people are going to get burned but to not realize the incredible wealth some people made is BEYOND ignorant.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:37 PM
Perhaps you just run in circles where people are negative and don't work hard enough.
11217 - Do you ever listen to yourself? Do people actually like you? What has changed over the past several months that you are now speaking to people in such a rude way?
Say, how much did the folks give you for the downpayment?
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 1:37 PM
Really 11217? Well it is going to be those same market forces which are going to force people like you out of the market if you bought into the housing bubble and whatever you do don't ask for a bailout because you are not going to get any kind words from me.
Posted by: hannible at December 10, 2008 1:37 PM
oh stop 11217. now youre trying to make us all sound like a bunch of welfare queens which, clearly, none of us here are.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 1:38 PM
11217 has a point. If he has worked to get to a point where he can afford the finer things in life than he deserves to live the way he wants. I am 35 and have done well for myself and hate the fact that I am made to feel bad by my less fortunate friends or family members. As jay-z raps I worked hard for this... Still house prices are bound to fall another 10-15 percent at least...
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 1:40 PM
"Say, how much did the folks give you for the downpayment?"
Zero dollars and zero cents.
And Rob, no offense but you just came on this board asking about unemployment, did you not...?
How about you ask someone if they have any job leads instead, if you think you might be laid off.
Unemployment is a last resort.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:41 PM
What's "Ghey" What????
No matter what all of you think this post is about it has accomplished its primary objective: generating hits.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 1:44 PM
quote:
As jay-z raps I worked hard for this...
and as foxy brown raps, "i will just take that back from ya"
what's your point?
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 1:45 PM
quote:
How about you ask someone if they have any job leads instead, if you think you might be laid off.
because maybe now i feel like sitting around the house in glittery lip gloss watching the tyra show for a change.?! i dont know. derf. i know, you have a point.
*Rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 1:48 PM
Don't you see why housing prices balloon so fast and at such a fast pace? Low interest rates for too long. Now the economy has to suffer pecause we have to keep interest rates so low so homeowners can stay in their homes. The people that bought 30 years ago and sold before the bubble burst are the smart ones but you know what I would call the person that paid 7.8 million for that house? Well he better not be asking for a bailout
Posted by: hannible at December 10, 2008 1:48 PM
So far, Cobblehiller you are Zero for 3.
I don't live with my parents.
I am not 25.
And my parents did not give me money for my home purchase.
What else ya got?
And you wonder if people like me...? Um...sounds like you've got the problem here, not I.
Projecting is really not very becoming on you.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:48 PM
I like where 11217 is taking this thread.
Posted by: Polemicist at December 10, 2008 1:49 PM
"because maybe now i feel like sitting around the house in glittery lip gloss watching the tyra show for a change.?!"
We all do, but daddy's gotta pay the bills...!
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:49 PM
Oh don't worry I am waiting for homes to start foreclosing in Brooklyn Heights and in Carroll Gardens and then will I start looking to buy. By the way I will pay cash. If I was not stupid enough to buy into the housing bubble I sure am not going to buy now. Plus I would like to see alot of wannabe homeowners who don't even know how to change a light bulb leave the neighborhood first. and take your shappy high class coffee stores with you I make my own.
Posted by: hannible at December 10, 2008 1:32 PM
I see we have a new idiot on here today!!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 1:50 PM
What's "shappy" coffee anyway?
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 1:55 PM
foxy brown didn't write that line Jay-z did. He wrote most of her stuff.
And my point is don't hate on a guy because he has some of the finer things in life. Especially if he worked hard for it. If 11217 has the nice home in the good nabe and a great job than good for him. Though I do agree with most that real estate will keep going down from here...
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 1:56 PM
It's coffee you don't make at home
Posted by: nk at December 10, 2008 1:57 PM
11217, don't let them get you down. There always have been and always will be individuals and companies who will do well regardless. Congratulations for being one of them. Even if unemployment goes to 10% that means 90% of folks who want to work are working. I don't expect to see my income go up next year but I don't see it going down much either, nor my wife's income. I have a lot of control over my own destiny.
Therefore we are trying not to buy into this gloom and doom and fear, which is merely turning things into a self-fulfilling prophecy. I suggest each person look carefully at their own finances and how they spend money. It's one thing if you're out of a job, of course you have to cut back. But if you're still working and probably will be, and then stop patronizing your favorite neighborhood restaurant weekly, you're merely helping to get a waitperson laid off. The only thing to fear is fear itself.
Rob, just think, if you saved $2600 a coupla years ago and invested it wisely, if would be worth $1500 today!
Posted by: denton at December 10, 2008 1:57 PM
I don't know wasdre. Maybe hannibal will come back and explain it.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 1:58 PM
foxy brown is from prospect heights but she calls it park slope and lives in new jersey.
Posted by: i disagree at December 10, 2008 1:59 PM
I think we're done here 11217. You've been pretty unfair and made some nasty and immature comments. I asked your age because your comments were so outrageous I assumed that only someone very young would make them.
Poley! Hooray! Someone for 11217 to play with....
Bye kids.
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 1:59 PM
Thanks Hobokenrocks. Sounds like you're doing pretty well also.
Mine's just a small apartment, but it feels good to be paying a mortgage payment instead of rent and I love it and plan to be there for years.
I also agree we are headed for a pretty significant correction.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:59 PM
11271 -- I would love to hear from you when you are over 45 and have been laid off for the third or fourth time. There are planty of people who have worked very hard for a long time and are unemployed through no fault of their own (and, yes, many with MBAs etc.). Arrogance is unbecoming....
billyboomer As to the difference in inventory now v. late 80s/early 90s, a lot of the inventory then was actually occupied because existing buildings were coverted from rental to coop. Now there is all this new constuction -- mostly "luxury" condos. It really is a different environment.
Posted by: BH76 at December 10, 2008 1:59 PM
11217 has plenty of good points but they are couched in a seemingly unnecessary hostility/haughtiness. 11217 i don't know you from Adam but there has been a decidedly more confrontational nature to your posts of late. What's up with that?
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 2:00 PM
Not if it was in a balanced portfolio denton. Which it should be. Treasuries are up in price overr the last few years.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 2:00 PM
All the comments are over here, and no one is looking at the inside scoop on atlantic yards yet.
Posted by: nk at December 10, 2008 2:01 PM
Forget this Foxy Brown asshole...she's been in jail, has been sentenced to and still needs additional anger management classes, would be arrested if she returned to Jamaica. what a loser.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 2:04 PM
Please tell me more about my immaturity, Cobblehiller:
Oh wine lover, you pompous little ass. Oh to be young and so cavalier.
Yes, by all means, you and your 30 something friends making 'a few 100 grand a year" should certainly be buying apt.s
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 11:42 AM in response to Rent-to-Own at 360 Baltic
***
Ok, let's not get too crazy here...I didn't say I was going to be his BFF {best friend forever).
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 9, 2008 12:57 PM in response to House of the Day: 1232 Dean Street
***
I just blame everything on BRG, it makes life simpler! ; )
Hang nail - BRGs fault
Bad coffee - BRGs fault
Broken heel - BRGs fault
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 9, 2008 3:44 PM in response to House of the Day: 1232 Dean Street
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:04 PM
WASDER congrats and good luck!! You will need it I have 3 girls of my own, get ready for lots of whining, they are lucky they are so cute.
Back to business-The treasury yield as of late should leave every quite concerned, there are negative yields on short term bonds, and all of the 3-5 terms also have historically low yields..
The commercial RE is getting for its plunge, but the market needs to clear out all of its excess evalutations. Companies can not continue to pay the rental per sf and stay in business.
Good piece in the times today.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/business/10default.html?ref=business
Posted by: derwood at December 10, 2008 2:08 PM
"i don't know you from Adam but there has been a decidedly more confrontational nature to your posts of late. What's up with that?"
Because I find this all hilarious, really.
SOME people (not all!) on here are such entitled hypocrites, it brings out the best in me. I can't help myself. Denton is right...the unemployment rate in NYC right now is 5.7%. That means over 94% are employed. The doom and gloom feeds on itself. Just like everyone was ready to sign up for that 10 million dollar brownstone in Clinton Hill a year ago. It's funny how some people have no thoughts of their own, but just listen to the media and are unable to form opinions of their own based on their own experiences.
Congrats on the soon to be new baby, wasder.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:09 PM
1. wine lover was being cavalier - his entitlement 'duh' attitude was a little over the top for me. It was a fair comment.
2. Hmmm, that was in response to wasder saying the "...angels sang" when I accepted Biff apology for making a nasty comment to me about losing my job. And that is immature how? I accepted Biff apology, but I'm not going to be his best buddy, and that was a 'cute' way of saying it.
3. This was teasing. Normal people do in fact tease in a friendly manner one another at times. I'm pretty sure that BRG took it as friendly and not as anything nasty.
Are you having trouble parsing normal human interactions and responses 11217?
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 2:10 PM
quote:
foxy brown is from prospect heights but she calls it park slope and lives in new jersey
she does NOT call it park slope. grrr (actually does she? hahahahah). honestly i have yet to get her latest album. im a terrible fan :(
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 2:12 PM
Who all saw the last episode of Boston Legal???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 2:14 PM
I'm truly sorry you are losing your job at the end of the month Cobblehiller, but please refrain from taking it out on everyone else.
Your disgust for young people is palpable and truly confusing.
I'm guessing they are replacing you at work with a youngster?!
It wasn't me!!
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:14 PM
quote:
the unemployment rate in NYC right now is 5.7%. That means over 94% are employed
i call mega-baloney on that. 94 percent of people living in nyc right now are employed? suuuuuure they are.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 2:16 PM
>Not if it was in a balanced portfolio denton. Which it should be. Treasuries are up in price overr the last few years.>
DIBS, I believe with Rob being thirty or less, standard financial advice would be 70% equities, 30% bonds. Some of the equities would be overseas and some of the bonds high-yield, both of which have done even worse than the S&P.
Still, good point. I'll revise my estimate of $2600>$1500 up to $2600>$1800.
:-)
Posted by: denton at December 10, 2008 2:16 PM
Well 94% of people who are interested in working.
We obviously don't count children, elderly, etc.
You know what I'm saying.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:19 PM
actually denton im 31. my Sweet Sixteen x 2 is this february 9th. woo woo! yeah im celebrating a sweet sixteen party at 32. deal with it.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 2:19 PM
Do you typically use another name here 11217? The tone of your posts is starting to remind me of someone.
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 2:19 PM
>>11271 -- I would love to hear from you when you are over 45 and have been laid off for the third or fourth time. There are planty of people who have worked very hard for a long time and are unemployed through no fault of their own (and, yes, many with MBAs etc.). Arrogance is unbecoming....>>
BH76, I'm 54 and have been employed full-time continuously since the age of 15-1/2 and have never been fired or laid off. Part of that is that I've stayed away from large corporations and have chosen situations, including ownership situations, where I am in control of my destiny.
Having said that, I have the greatest sympathy for those that have lost their jobs, especially in companies where upper management has walked away with millions.
Posted by: denton at December 10, 2008 2:20 PM
rob...pick any number...94, 93, 92, 91,90,89,....85. The vast majority of people in NYC and the country as a whole, are, in fact, employed.
And denton, as long as he leaves it in the market it will go up some point and eventually will be more than the original principal.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 2:20 PM
And some of those people are receiving severance and have not yet shown up on the unemployed side of things yet.
I'm sure we'll see that 5.7% figure go higher.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:20 PM
11217 is reacting (overreacting, maybe) to hannible's and others' insistence that the fact that they didn't buy during the "boom" somehow affirms their brilliance (as opposed to, much more likely, that they just couldn't afford it), and that those who did are idiots. many of us aren't stupid - in fact, far from it. we worked really hard to buy conservatively in the market we were faced with, and took some risk in doing so. to act as if the fact that you didn't buy is because you somehow predicted the mess we're currently in, as opposed to because you couldn't afford it and/or were entirely risk averse is so self-congratulatingly false it's just annoying.
and she does call it park slope. jay-z calls it home, at least if he ever moves into his place at OPP (investment, at least). DIBS, i invite you to come say that to foxy's face! if you dare...
Posted by: i disagree at December 10, 2008 2:21 PM
That now makes you 0 for 4, Cobblehiller.
No other name. Just the one.
You are REALLY reaching for straws here, aren't ya?
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:22 PM
quote:
Well 94% of people who are interested in working.
eggsactly. the "interested" in working part is the "interesting" part of that chary statistic. cuz i can, and im gonna go out on a limb here having a psychic Raven moment, that of people that CAN work, i'd guesstimate only about 40-50 percent do. the rest just don't want to for one reason or another, and that is totally fine. personally i dont think people should HAVE to work just to survive as a human being on a planet called Earth, but i don't feel like getting into that conversation right now.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 2:22 PM
i disagree....I certainly would and if Foxy still doesn't understand that assault and battery is not an appropriate reponse to free speech then she'll land her booty back in Rikers.
I love how these posts are becoming so much more cordial and fun as we get closer to the holidays!!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 2:25 PM
Look some people do good and others don't in these times. I think the most important thing is for the ones who are down on there luck to keep trying. Everyone has had a bad patch in their lives. This will end at one point and things will get better. But people have to stop listening to the government and the tv stations. Educate yourselves on finance no matter what industry you are presently in. Form your own opinions and realize nothing goes up forever. Housing will go down but this downturn will be a great buying oppurtunity for many. This isn't japan where they are still hurting from their bubble ,which in my opinion was much bigger than ours.. The USA will come out of this and will once again shine. It may take a while though.. Unless we can find a new internet to drive growth..
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 2:25 PM
I agree, I disagree.
And you are correct.
I don't like to think of it as overreacting though. I like to think of it as a fun time. Getting some of these reactions has been a great laugh.
Hannible's are priceless. Someone who is truly a little behind the 8 ball, to put it mildly.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:26 PM
Hoboken...I sometime but not always agree with you. You're point at 2:25 is spot on!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 2:27 PM
Why are you taking such glee in being so cold and nasty to me?
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 2:27 PM
Because you are disrespectful, Cobblehiller.
You ask if I live with my parents, you ask if I'm 25...why?
Because you don't agree with me...?
I don't get it. You call me immature, but I just went through your old posts and you are calling people names right and left, making fun of people in their "30's" and just have a general disregard for people who don't think just like you.
I have nothing personal against you, but your attacks show me how very insecure you are, so I'll lighten up.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:31 PM
DIBS - totally agree with you about Foxy Brown, sounds like a total c&*t the way she treats those lower on the totem pole than her, nail salon workers, hairstylists, etc.
Posted by: dittoburg at December 10, 2008 2:33 PM
cobblehiller...only because to him you are just an anonymous blogger on an internet thread. Those of us who have actually met some of the others here are rarely that way to them after meeting. That's how I can be such an asshole to anyone here whom I have never met.
And no one is ever really an asshole to someone else in the Forum when they are seeking advice; unless of course it's derwood or What posting about the MAB...or that one time when the What was such a prick and didn't even know what a "summer cover" was....which calls into question a lot of his claims about knowing a lot about real estate and these houses in Brooklyn.
I thought you were making cookies this week?
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 2:33 PM
"I love how these posts are becoming so much more cordial and fun as we get closer to the holidays!!!!"
Well, for a change, nobody can blame me - I had two posts in this entire mess and they were both to congratulate wasder on the upcoming birth of his daughter.
Posted by: Biff Champion at December 10, 2008 2:34 PM
Wasder, you will be surrounded by all x chromosomes. Congratulations on this most excellent achievement. But next time if you want a boy, be sure to give your wife a "y."
Posted by: mopar at December 10, 2008 2:34 PM
"Why are you taking such glee in being so cold and nasty to me?"
A better question would be why you care.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:34 PM
free speech? what do you think this is? park slope?!?
Posted by: i disagree at December 10, 2008 2:35 PM
LOL...if she says she's from PS then she has to abide by the PS constitution...LOL
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 2:37 PM
Congratulations Wasder! We too had a baby near the holidays and it does indeed make for much merriment as well as complications! Good luck.
And the idea that 11217 is "decidedly more confrontational" in nature of late is news to me. I've found him hostile, confrontational and projecting all over the place (mostly on me) in the past. Nothing new. But while he has an unfortunate haughtiness (to which he seems to respond with self-depecrating humor) he also makes fairly decent points with regard to self responsibility and sufficiency. Dunno. It feels good in that righteous way to read from time to time. He appeals to that good ole boot straps American dream mentality many of us were inculcated with.
Posted by: Nokilissa at December 10, 2008 2:38 PM
Thanks Dave. I wrote this because so many of my friends are now hurt because of this down market. I tried to tell anyone who would listen but they decided that the analysts on CNBC were smarter than myself. Which may still be the case ,but those analysts always have their agendas. I don't. I only play what I see and go from their. Again anyone who doesn't have a financial background should now start educating themselves in finance. And anyone who wants to buy a home should now start looking at buying. But I do believe we have some more downside. If we get a 4.5 30 yr fixed than that will help stabalize the housing market.. And it really hurts my chances of getting that bkheights townhouse for 800k.. LOL
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 2:39 PM
Thanks Dave. I wrote this because so many of my friends are now hurt because of this down market. I tried to tell anyone who would listen but they decided that the analysts on CNBC were smarter than myself. Which may still be the case ,but those analysts always have their agendas. I don't. I only play what I see and go from their. Again anyone who doesn't have a financial background should now start educating themselves in finance. And anyone who wants to buy a home should now start looking at buying. But I do believe we have some more downside. If we get a 4.5 30 yr fixed than that will help stabalize the housing market.. And it really hurts my chances of getting that bkheights townhouse for 800k.. LOL
Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at December 10, 2008 2:39 PM
I can't see her eating tofu - isn't that the 3rd Amendment to the PS constitution?
Posted by: dittoburg at December 10, 2008 2:39 PM
"Why are you taking such glee in being so cold and nasty to me?"
Uh, Cobblehiller just chill. You see 11217 wants/needs attention. This the first time that this Asshat is acting like a Asshat!
Folks there are people who believe they will be alright during the implosion of the Mutant Asset Bubble but, history tell us otherwise. So sit back and relax, their arrogance and smugness will burn them.
Remember about a year and a half ago, all my predictions came true and still the Asshats are in denial...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
BTW You better read about the Atlantic Yards implosion taking place right now! You see after they announce that Atlantic Yards, you will people heads explode!
Posted by: Return of The What at December 10, 2008 2:39 PM
ugh there are some serious haters in this thread. you people don't get foxy brown at all do you :(
the ill na na
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 2:39 PM
Dave,
I DID! I DID!
Dying, DYING I tell you to talk about it.
I also suspect I'll go into withdrawal come next week.
You?
Posted by: Nokilissa at December 10, 2008 2:41 PM
No it is because when the market was going up all the buyers and homeowners said it was the market forces and that we has to bow our heads to the free markets will. Everyone was glad to own million dollar homes and no one worried about the thousands of families which were forced out of their childhood neighborhoods because of speculation. Now that the market is imploding and prices are going down way down way way down to China down those same buyers want government relief and don't want to hear people say that the value of their home is going down. Well tough suck it up it is the market forces at work.
Posted by: hannible at December 10, 2008 2:42 PM
Nokilissa, glad I saw you here now! Did you see the places I posted for you on the House of the Day Thread for you? I think you left before I posted them and was afraid you missed it. Have a look and let me know what you think. I though 161 Hicks looks pretty good.
Posted by: Biff Champion at December 10, 2008 2:43 PM
i like 11217. he is unpredictable. and lets the claws out sometimes. maybe 11217 is foxy brown? think about it.
Posted by: i disagree at December 10, 2008 2:45 PM
Nokilissa,
You put that into words much more eloquently than I could have. While I don't plan to be a d*ck to anyone here, there are certain things that just get me going.
You've pretty much nailed it, and please know that none of this is personal for me. It's just a blog. I know some are into bstoner for new friends (which I think is great) but I'm here for fun and for good back and forth, whenever possible.
I do love Brooklyn about as much as humanly possible, which makes all this really easy for me.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:46 PM
I like you also I disagree. I appreciate those who don't need everything sugarcoated and who are free thinkers.
I've enjoyed some of our back and forths very much...I think you have a lot of good things to say, despite our occasional arguments.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:48 PM
Wasder-congrats. I'm happy that all is well with your newborn.
I have seen on this thread some great options if NYC wasn't predicting further job losses with 165K or more on the table. And when times are good for you, life looks grand. But there are others out there. I would actually place the real figures of unemployment and underemployment around 15-17%. Clearly this makes for difficult job searching and the rest.
I would love to get back to work, but I can't. A year ago I was struck down with a neurological disorder that has no cure at this time (Dystonia). I made sure that I had LTD, and I also received my Notice of Award for SSDI just last week, and I'm just giving cards to friends to let them know how much I appreciate their support and concerns. I can't do much more than that. I have been humbled.
So I just want to suggest that we please be nicer to each other, whether it is with affluent friends, working poor, unemployed or just taking it day-by-day.
Posted by: gwbrubaker at December 10, 2008 2:49 PM
aw, shucks. now i know you're not foxy brown. but i bet you look just as hawt in false eyelashes and a weave.
Posted by: i disagree at December 10, 2008 2:51 PM
Hater???
If she just attacked those above her, those who can look after themseleves, then fine. But she has a seedy habit of being a complete bastar% to shop workers and service workers. Not a character to be admired, unless bullies are your thing.
Posted by: dittoburg at December 10, 2008 2:52 PM
MM - the main difference (between blog posters and the so called "experts") is pay.
Look I am not saying that everyone is an idiot....I'm saying that virtually no one knows what is going to happen, and the fact that you can cite an economist or two being right about our current situation while interesting proves little. Roubini's 2006 prediction while currently looking totally prophetic is no more remarkable then Arjun Murti (Goldman Oil Analyst/NY Times called him an "oracle") predicting $200 a barrel oil in June - in July he looked like the smartest guy in the world and (unfortunately for him) now he looks like a moron (in fact Goldman has stopped even issuing price targets on Oil.). Or Abbie Joseph Cohen predicting in Dec '07 that S&P would hit 1700 in 2008. Or Bill Gates allegedly predicting no one would ever need more than 640k of memory. Or even Thomas Malthus predicting the end of civilization.
As the saying goes....even a broken clock is right 2x a day.
A down economic cycle tends to work exactly the way the up cycle did....people are virtually universally convinced of its solid foundation, can conceive of little that will change it and plan as though today's environment will be permanently in place (with some very bad consequences) and then....boom....everything changes...and some guy who had been predicting these new events for decades is cast as a genius...until he cant get it right again.
In summary...people will lose tons of $, jobs, home equity and security, and then...this too will pass and life will go on. And there is no one on this entire planet (blogger or "expert") who can RELIABLY predict the timeframe of this sequence of events.
Posted by: fsrg at December 10, 2008 2:52 PM
She is hot, I'll give her that.
Posted by: dittoburg at December 10, 2008 2:54 PM
"Don't be jealous I'm young, handsome and own my own home cobblehiller.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 1:07 PM"
Haahahahah lOl
Posted by: cornerbodega at December 10, 2008 2:54 PM
Dave - we seem to be turned off by the same types also - Foxy, our man Shelly Silver.
Weird.
Posted by: dittoburg at December 10, 2008 2:55 PM
Yeah, that one was pure unadulterated fun, cornerbodega.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 2:56 PM
OMG, do you people ever do any work or do you just yack on this blog all day!! I couldn't possibly read all the back and forth since I last checked the blog, but I did catch this tidbit from 11217::
"My company in the last two weeks has just hired an additional employee, gave out hefty xmas bonuses equal to one week's salary for every year you've worked at the company, and we're having a huge holiday party next week at one of the nicest restaurants in the city."
Congrats. My Fortune 500 company, which employs aprox 15,000 in NYC alone and owns 3 highrise buildings in midtown, has canceled all bonuses and all parties. We're having a potluck holiday party in our 34th floor conference room--yes, potluck. There have already been layoffs and, as I said 80 comments ago, more are to come. My point is that of course some businesses are atill doing quite well, but many many others aren't. And when huge companies like mine start cutting back the ripples eventually hit almost evey company.
Posted by: shillstoner at December 10, 2008 2:57 PM
Please, we are trying to stay off topic here.
Posted by: dittoburg at December 10, 2008 2:59 PM
Except hannible - people didn't just "bow" to the forces of the free market....they demanded and often got Government intervention like Rent Controls, subsidized housing vouchers, Govt sponsored affordable housing, etc, etc, etc.....
I'm not sure what the "right" answer is in this situation (right being defined as the course that will allow for the least pain now and most sustainable future) - but please do not falsely claim that we all just rode the way up with no intervention.
Posted by: fsrg at December 10, 2008 3:00 PM
Got it, thanks Dave, thx What.
I've made slightly under a 1,000 cookies since Friday. I'm actually still working for a few more days - so I mainly bake at night, Fridays & weekends - when we don't have social plans. I have 'about' - roughly, I don't actually count them - another 1,000 - 1,500 to make between now and next Saturday (20th) morning.
I think I better focus on that instead of this.
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 3:00 PM
Who's hot? Did I miss something? Who's committing adultury?
Biff, I went back later and took a look. Thank you! You have given us some to think about or take a look at, with the exception of the Garden Place home (see previous thread).
And where the hell did dave get off to? We have Boston Legal to discuss damnit.
Posted by: Nokilissa at December 10, 2008 3:00 PM
i may have missed the boat somewhere, but why are you baking thousands of cookies cobble hiller? ugh now im craving raw cookie dough. in fact F that noise, im totally going to eat raw cookie dough for dinner tonight. im an adult proper. i can do that if i want!
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 3:02 PM
Nokilissa...I loved the jab at the network. Maybe they will be reincarnated somewhere on cable. I want to see more of the Shirley Schmitt blow up doll!!!
The original post of this thread was about the stock market. Why does everyone on brownstoner have to turn everything into a real estate discussion???? :)
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 3:03 PM
Shillstoner,
We've done a potluck for the last 7 holiday parties not in the conference room (which we don't have) since 7 of us are squashed in an apartment the size of a walk in closet but in someone's apartment.
We do not own ANY buildings, we rent our hovel, thank you.
Comparing these two companies seems rather ridiculous as it sounds like your company has done quite well for itself over the years, and I'm guessing has been quite lucrative for many involved.
Please don't try to make me feel bad for you.
Nor gunna happen.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 3:03 PM
Rob, Xmas gifts.
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 3:07 PM
we had our office holiday party last night actually. and sh-t you not somehow i managed to clock in ELEVEN dirty martinis in 2 hours!
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 3:07 PM
Thanks Nokilissa, I'm not sure any will work for you, but thought I would give it a shot.
Posted by: Biff Champion at December 10, 2008 3:08 PM
Raw cookie dough!!!! Now we're back on topic.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 3:08 PM
Thank YOU. I don't care where we have the freakin holiday party...I just want to get wasted.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 3:09 PM
11217...there's a party tomorrow night for some of my ex colleagues who are leaving the firm we used to work at and going somewhere else
it's on 47th between 6th & 7th...want to come??
Then we can go to "Therapy"
Cobblehiller is invited too...and we will all drink alot and make nice talk!!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 3:12 PM
"Wasder, you will be surrounded by all x chromosomes. Congratulations on this most excellent achievement. But next time if you want a boy, be sure to give your wife a "y.""
Whoops! Thanks Mopar. Shows you how much I know about genetics.
11217--thanks for baby wishes. not trying to be too harsh but just wondered why your otherwise reasonable points had to come couched in such condescending language. I have no beef with you--you seem a smart and successful guy and I often agree with your point of view. I can see how some people bring out the snark in others--it happens to me too (with a few folks who you can probably guess). but in defense of cobblehiller she is good people and somebody who is doing her best to figure out how to make a go of it here in NYC just like everyone else.
Noklissa-thanks for baby wishes. How is your family?
gwbrubaker--sorry to hear about your situation. you are spot on about how we should try to treat each other nicer on this board.
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 3:14 PM
the pig n whistle?
Posted by: dittoburg at December 10, 2008 3:14 PM
I think my favorite part was when John Laroquette broke...no, shattered, the third wall in the episode before last during his rant about television programming. But which jab at the network are you referring to?
Posted by: Nokilissa at December 10, 2008 3:15 PM
ditto...they say its at the "Aspen Social Club" across from Langan's. I haven't been back over there in a long time so its either a gentrified Pig n Whistle or something new.
Anything called "social club" is gonna be a big piss up as the Brits say.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 3:17 PM
I hope we're having another get-together soon. Maybe Wed or Thurs of next week?
Rob is right about unemployment. If you include the "discouraged" as they do in Europe, the official rate doubles to about 12 percent.
Rob, you can put 3 percent down on a condo, you DO need a high credit score (650 to 800) but even a terrible one can be fixed over time, and the mortgage on 100K will be much cheaper than renting -- between $600 and $900, depending on mortgage rate and how much you put down.
And Brooklyn Heights and Carroll Gardens are hardly the only desirable neighborhoods in which to do that in NYC. Hannible, you are an idiot.
Posted by: mopar at December 10, 2008 3:19 PM
Dave,
Thanks for the offer, and I do love "Therapy" as well as The Ritz which is nearby (have you been?) but I'm on tap to go to BuyinBrooklyn tomorrow night in Park Slope. Everything open till 10pm and I missed it last week.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 3:20 PM
That they will move to "a network that cared"
Denny Crane is my idol. And there's nothing better in these days of HR interference and ridiculous political correctness than all of the stuff that goes on in that office. And I love how almost all of the judges were idiots...including Clarence Thomas
But the best episode ever was "Sex with a one legged woman"
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 3:20 PM
mopar...sorry to say but someone with a credit score anywhere below 700 isn't likely to get anything in this market.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 3:21 PM
Aspen Social Club? - those darn gentrifiers are changing midtown now.
Posted by: dittoburg at December 10, 2008 3:22 PM
lol at all this. Except congrats to Wasder.
"My company in the last two weeks has just hired an additional employee, gave out hefty xmas bonuses equal to one week's salary for every year you've worked at the company, and we're having a huge holiday party next week at one of the nicest restaurants in the city."
Hedge fund?
Survivorship bias?
Posted by: northsloperenter at December 10, 2008 3:23 PM
This is an economic crisis like no other that is calling into question the very basis of capitalism and consumerism, but in the long term, New York real estate is still going to keep going up. And that's why it would be so great if Rob starts saving now, because then he'll be just in time to sell his starter apt for a profit on the upswing and be financially stable for life.
Posted by: mopar at December 10, 2008 3:29 PM
"I don't even know what a hedge fund is."
I disbelieve you.
Posted by: northsloperenter at December 10, 2008 3:32 PM
Disbelieve all you like.
I've said numerous times on here what I do for a living and it is most certainly not in finance. Not even remotely.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 3:34 PM
Agree. I think I watched that moment where the fake Clarence Thomas proclaimed "Hey!" indignantly to Alan about 5 times! That was my favorite episode, by the way.
Do you mean waaaaaay back when Denny slept with a one legged hooker? I can't remember it... damn.
"survivorship bias" bears a moment of silence. Nice one.
Posted by: Nokilissa at December 10, 2008 3:35 PM
Ask the What.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 3:36 PM
Runway model 11217?
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 3:40 PM
Did it once Dave...quite a few years ago now. Pretty lucrative, I must say...
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 3:43 PM
oh mopar, if only it was that easy :-/ this site has given me the desire tho to think critically about my lot in life, so that's cool. if somehow i do worm myself into Big Brother this summer and win the half million dollars i can totally buy something! and if i dont get in big brother i am sure as hell going to try out for every other stupid reality tv show. i know ill probably get kicked off first but it's worth a shot. the whole let me close my eyes and think of magical lottery numbers never panned out :(
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 3:47 PM
I like that spread of Korean runway models on
www.asianhunks.blogspot.com Sorry...back on topic....
What's your favorite cookie dough?????
And, more importantly, when you were bar hopping on the UWS did you ever go to Stella's before it was closed down???
That was a landmark....and the old Rounds on the UES before it closed???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 3:48 PM
Oh, Rob, I thought you meant you were going to sign up and be a Big Brother to a child. But hey now that you mention it a friend of mine won a pile of money on Jeopardy. Good luck!
Posted by: mopar at December 10, 2008 3:53 PM
Wow, record number of posts on this thread, even if lots of them are about bars and cookie dough...
Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 10, 2008 3:55 PM
11217, you're doing yourself no favors in the crowing department. Now you subtly hand us visuals of your self-described handsome self strutting down a runway in designer duds?
You sly dog.
Rob, how did you get hooked up with big brother XXI (or whichever)? If you got on, I would absolutely stomach watching it! Will you tell us if you do?
Posted by: Nokilissa at December 10, 2008 3:56 PM
oh i am in no way offiliated with it or hooked up in any way. i would just go an open casting call. tho most people on those stupid shows are recruited and are just a bunch of mactors (model/actor wannabes, you know the type). and yes if i do get on i will tell! maybe if i eat enough cookie dough i can get on the next season of the biggest loser!
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 4:02 PM
I'm not familiar with Stella's....where was it?
Candle Bar is still up there though, as is 8 of Clubs, I think...
The Ritz is down on like 46th between 8th and 9th. Great crowd. And I'm not really a gay bar kinda guy, in general but it's really fun.
There's an asian hunk or two from that website, I wouldn't mind showing my rice patty to...
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 4:02 PM
Nokilissa,
Trust me...it's not nearly as glamorous as it sounds. I really only did it for the money. Finding out that I got to keep the clothes was icing on the cake.
Otherwise, I found it tedious, at best.
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 4:03 PM
sometimes i wish we could insert pictures in these threads. cuz im picturing 11217 on the runway and im totally giggling right now.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 4:05 PM
Post #1 in the thread:
"Last night foreigners (US and EU mutual funds) were climbing all over themselves to buy stocks in Taiwan and Korea."
Post #194 in the thread:
"There's an asian hunk or two from that website, I wouldn't mind showing my rice patty to..."
Seems everyone's pretty much stayed on topic; the topic clearly being foreigners climbing all over Taiwanese and Korean hunks.
Posted by: Biff Champion at December 10, 2008 4:07 PM
Stella's and Rounds were the last of the great true hustler bars. Rounds was gentrified years ago into some UES asshole hangout. If they only knew what it used to be!!! Stella's was run by this real rough woman character who was also quite attractive. It was, shall we say, not as high class a crowd as Rounds but I can still remember meeting the likes of Goldman Sachs partners there trolling. It was on 47th St just east of 8th ave next to the China Bar (?). It too alas has been gentrified into an Irish bar. I spent 9-11 and blackout evening both at Stella's.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 4:07 PM
Don't hate me because I'm beautiful
Fame, fame, I love my calvins
Oh
I'm too sexy for my shirt
Too sexy for my shirt
So sexy it hurts
And I'm too sexy for Milan
Milan, New York, and Japan
I'm too sexy for your party
Too sexy for your party
No way I'm disco dancing
I'm a model
Ya know what I mean
And I do my little turn on the catwalk
Yeah on the catwalk
On the catwalk yeah I do my little turn on the catwalk
Don't hate me
I'm just like you but better looking
Don't hate me, please
I'm too sexy for my bike
Too sexy for my bike
Too sexy to hike
I can hike
And I'm too sexy for my hat
Too sexy for my hat
Whatcha think about that?
I'm a model
You know what I mean
And I do my little turn on the catwalk
Yeah on the Catwalk
On the catwalk yeah
I shake my little toosh on the catwalk
Too sexy for my
Too sexy for my
Too sexy for my
'Cause I'm a model ya know what I mean
And I do my little turn on the catwalk
Yeah on the catwalk
Yeah on the catwalk
I shake my little toosh on the catwalk
I'm too sexy for my dog
Too sexy for my dog
Poor bow-wow-wog
(dog barks twice)
I'm too sexy for my "A"
Too sexy for my "A"
Dave's going to leave me!
And I'm too sexy for this song!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 4:09 PM
summer blackout 2003 was probably the most kick ass 2 nights of my entire life.
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 4:11 PM
Though the Dow was up only 0.81% and the S&P up only 1.2%, the FXI (China A shares ETF)was up 7.6%, Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM) +5%, Mizuho Bank(MFG) + 6.3% and HQS +11%..THAT'S BETA.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 4:13 PM
Where were you that 2 nights were blacked out???? Or was the second night your own blackout after partying the first night???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 4:14 PM
The blackout was 2 nights...??
Posted by: 11217 at December 10, 2008 4:15 PM
What is 'beta' Dave, and why is it good?
Posted by: cobblehiller at December 10, 2008 4:15 PM
i was on the lower east side in manhattan when it happened. we were one of the last few to get power. there was no electricty for def. 2 full days and nights. it sucked. and the bodegas wouldn't sell candles to white kids lol
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 4:16 PM
We were definitely 2 nights and moving toward a 3rd when we went back on. One of the last nabes I suspect. And I was 36 weeks pregnant, walking up 6 flights of spiral stairs, cursing like a sailor.
Posted by: Nokilissa at December 10, 2008 4:20 PM
Beta describes how a stock behaves relative to the market. If the beta is over 1.00 then the stock moves up more than the market does when the market goes up. Conversely it moves down more than the market does when the market moves down.
Beta is a historical relationship and I think oftentimes a stock's current likelihood to outperform may not be accurately measured by its historical beta. In the case of what we are experiencing now, the stocks that have gotten hurt the most are looking to be the ones that perform best when the market goes up irrespective of what number beta they have historically had. For example, FXI has a beta of 0.83 but its doing far better than the market.
When I said in the first post that "the market is clearly seeking 'beta" I meant that its looking to take on additional risk in things that have always looked risky but would do well in what looks likely to be a strong market.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 4:23 PM
I had never lived through a blackout before and I was in a high rise (luckily only 6th floor) on the UES. I never knew about the reason you'd want to fill up your tub during a blackout because eventually the water tank on the roof would be empty and you'd get no more water. I got home late and was putting up two friends who couldn't get home and needless to say, by the next day that bathroom was unbearable with nothing to flush the toilet with!!!!
Just thought I'd add that bit of info for those of you who have always lived in a brownstone and always had running and flushing water.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 10, 2008 4:27 PM
gack nolissa that must have been rough! i was on a 4th floor walkup at the time. it's funny cuz i had just gotten my pitbull duke just like 2 or three weeks before the blackout happened. he was so cute leading me up the stairs in the pitch dark. and then we'd cuddle in the dark sticky blistering heat on an inflatable mattress that reeked of malt liquor. good times!
*rob*
Posted by: PitbullNYC at December 10, 2008 4:29 PM
Awwww. A little pitbull puppy leading you up the stairs. Very sweet. Was the malt liquor yours or duke's?
Posted by: Nokilissa at December 10, 2008 4:34 PM
Malt liquor isn't good for dogs, Rob. I hope you refrained from sharing.
Posted by: East New York at December 10, 2008 4:50 PM
Late to the party, so most importantly, congratulations, Wasder, for the iminent arrival of another Wasderette. You are good people, and I'm sure you and Mrs. Wasder will bring up thoughtful and creative children.
Cobblehiller, it's only the internet. To meet and talk to you is to like you very much. In the long run, nothing here really matters. It's the real world that counts.
Dave, Boston Legal is the best! I'm going to miss it. I looked forward to Alan's rants, where he always managed to skewer just about every one equally, and he was usually right. The relationship between him and Denny was one of the best written, and touching friendships on television.
Also, Dave, I've learned more about financial stuff from you than any one else I know or read. Please keep it up, and I truly thank you.
Montrose Morris, PBA
Posted by: Montrose Morris at December 10, 2008 6:08 PM
Wasderettes! Thanks Montrose! Love it. Now that I have my chromosomes straight maybe I can work on #3. I think my wife would have something to say about that! In fact, I think this is it for us.
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 11:05 PM
"Recovery Sooner Than Later?"
What a reach. Have a healthy baby, wasder.
***Bid half off peak comps***
Posted by: Brownstones Half Off at December 10, 2008 11:36 PM
we will recover but it is not going to be sooner.
Posted by: sam at December 10, 2008 11:44 PM
Thanks BHO--love your new, sleek tagline. Also gotta agree that it seems unlikely that a recovery is coming sooner than later, though one can always hope I suppose.
Posted by: wasder at December 10, 2008 11:59 PM
WOW!!! Thank god I had work to do yesterday.
While this thread disintegrated early on. I found some of the posts amusing, a few defusing and many dehumanizing.
What a disarray and petty display of inappropriate shallowness.
Everybody, have some Egg Nog! And spike it a little.
Congratulations, Wasder! Another girl to the mix, you will be blessed. Please share the news when she arrives.
Posted by: bayridgegirl at December 11, 2008 9:00 AM
"While this thread disintegrated early on. I found some of the posts amusing, a few defusing and many dehumanizing."
BRG, that sounded very Jesse Jackson-esque. Did you ever write for him? Please join me in yesterday's closing bell. We have some work to do re: the next 'Stoner party.
Posted by: Biff Champion at December 11, 2008 9:13 AM
BRG--will share the news for sure. Also I am due to put some new house pictures up as we are finally getting to the point where it looks like our house.
Posted by: wasder at December 11, 2008 9:22 AM
wasder, yes, we're all waiting to see the pics! and we promise to not be our snobby, hyper-critical selves. Not that we would be; I'm sure your home is looking wonderful.
Posted by: Biff Champion at December 11, 2008 9:30 AM
Latest Restaurant Additions
-
Le Barricou
added November 20, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Der Schwarze Kölner
added November 19, 2009 12:00 PM in Fort Greene -
Oak Wine Bar & Café
added November 18, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Mr. Wonton
added November 17, 2009 12:00 PM in Park Slope -
Casa Rosa
added November 16, 2009 12:00 PM in Carroll Gardens -
Cousin John's Café & Bakery
added November 13, 2009 12:00 PM in Park Slope -
Elote
added November 12, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Miracle Grill
added November 11, 2009 12:00 PM in Park Slope -
Phoebe's Cafe
added November 10, 2009 12:00 PM in Williamsburg -
Ruthie's
added November 9, 2009 12:00 PM in Clinton Hill, Downtown Brooklyn
Post a comment
Please be patient while your comment is published. It may take a moment.