Last Week's Biggest Sales

Biff and Muffy;

I think Aussie has a point. You have to define "the spread" before teams can be chosen up. If the over-under line is a 20% decline in Brownstone Brooklyn's average selling price, then put me on Sebb's team.

Posted by: benson at December 23, 2008 2:37 PM

Miss Muffet;

What I am predicting is that the magnitude of the decline in the ASP (average selling price) in Brownstone Brooklyn) will be 20% or less from the peak.

Posted by: benson at December 23, 2008 2:52 PM

Biff;

You're right! Why would we want to spoil the very essence of Brownstoner commentary??? It's more fun to throw the BS around and be opinionated! ;-)

Miss Muffet;

Since the teams have been instructed to stake out their position and refrain from further comment henceforth, let me have my last word on the matter (if Captain Sebb will allow me to do so).

Remember, I said average selling price. A 20% decline in ASP is a big drop, and represents alot of wealth evaporation. I am picking 20% or less for the following reasons:

-during the last big RE crash in NYC (early 90's), that was the decline, and, from what I see so far, that crash was alot worse than this one (I'm talking about NYC).

-there is not a huge oversupply in Brooklyn, compared to markets that have crashed like Miami and Phoenix. We can thank NYC's cumbersome regulatory process for this "gift". The number of units coming on-line is not that big, in comparison to the total number of units in NYC.

-I believe that there is a "back to the city" movement underway, to Brooklyn's benefit.

OK, that's my final words on the matter - gotta go to the huddle.

Posted by: benson at December 23, 2008 3:19 PM

Miss Muffet;

OK, stepping in here in my new role as Sebb's QB.

Let me offer you some advice, and this is coming from someone who is in sales (for industrial products, not real estate): the asking price is meaningless. A seller can ask whatever they darn please. The asking price is wholly the creation of one person: the seller and as such, is not a metric of the marketplace.

What really matters is the selling price: the price at which the buyer and the seller agreed to meet. Again I go to my point in the thread above: please let's track the decline in the average selling price!! I ask you to buy any market research report (as I do) and you will see that this is how the market is tracked.

So, providing us with anecdotal information that some delusional seller has finally woken up and come to realize that the sky is not the limit, and that his asking price had to be lowered, is somewhat informative, but not of use in tracking the market.

PS: Sebb - how did I do in my first play?

Posted by: benson at December 23, 2008 10:36 PM