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December 2, 2008

Last Week's Biggest Sales

Strongest high-end sales week in awhile.

1. PARK SLOPE $4,000,000
631 Third Street GMAP (left)
When we had this as a HOTD back in May, the 4,150-square-foot limestone townhouse was asking $4,195,000. No price chops for what the listing called "the finest townhouse in Park Slope," according to StreetEasy. Deed recorded 11/24.

2. BROOKLYN HEIGHTS $3,125,000 (& $2,011,890)
One Brooklyn Bridge Park, Unit 1015 (& 1014) GMAP (right)
The same buyers paid $3,125,000 and $2,011,890 for two adjoining units at One Brooklyn Bridge Park. Unit 1015 is 2,361 square feet, with 4 bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths, while the 2-bed, 2-bath 1014 weighs in at 1,585 square feet, according to Stribling's Bruce Ehrmann. The sale of unit 1014 also included a parking space. Deeds recorded 11/26.

3. PARK SLOPE $2,388,000
511 Third Street GMAP
A HOTD in early September, when the two-fam was asking $2,400,000. It's nearly the same size as this week's top dog, 631 Third, and only about an avenue away. Deed recorded 11/24.

4. BRIGHTON BEACH $2,275,000
120 Oceana Drive West, PH6 GMAP
1,776-square-foot unit in a Brighton condo. Deed recorded 11/24.

5. PARK SLOPE $2,150,000
52 Berkeley Place GMAP
This three-family house was on and off the market over the past year+, with an original listing price of $2.6 million, says StreetEasy. Deed recorded 11/24.

631 Third Street photo from Property Shark.

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Comments

I would pay $4 million NOT to have to look at Jonathan Safran Foer out my back window.

Posted by: Frederick Law Homestead at December 2, 2008 11:35 AM

Wow, impressive sales this week.

I'm really happy to see that 52 Berkeley finally sold. Not surprised it sold for that price, given that it needed work. Never much liked the pink exterior either.

The house for 4 million was a lovely one. Glad to see that they got that price, despite the "end of the world."

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 11:38 AM

BTW, if you go back through the thread on the 4 million dollar place, a lot of comments said it would NEVER get that price. Some even said it wouldn't get 3 million.

Goes to show once again that many here don't know what the heck they are talking about.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 11:41 AM

Yes 11217. Evidence of the "End of The World" staring us in the face right here.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 11:41 AM

I guess when you said many don't know what the heck they are talking about you were speaking of Miss Muffett

Posted by: sebb at December 2, 2008 11:51 AM

I wasn't speaking about anyone in particular. There were many posters on that thread who didn't think this was a 4 million dollar house.

Or the same guest poster, posting all of them. Not sure.

Either way, for such a stunning house, I'm not at all surprised to see it fetch this amount.

I don't think a lot of people realize that the housing bubble collapse is concentrated heavily in a few places in the country...california, florida, arizona, nevada.

These areas make up the bulk of the housing declines we see and read about. It's not like the entire country is seeing 30 and 40% drops, year over year. Los Angeles, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami etc are bringing the numbers down due to the huge declines.

In most other areas, prices are flat or down around 15% or so.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 12:05 PM

Somehow, I think DIBS has other fish to fry on that point, sebb.

Posted by: slopefarm at December 2, 2008 12:05 PM

Since the Recession started DEC. 2007, guess Park Slope Brownstone market is close to recession proof. Better than the stock market.

Posted by: billyboomer at December 2, 2008 12:08 PM

11217...you will get a lot of arguments about that. None of the posters will produce anything concrete to back up their positions though.

I'm not rallying the cause for a property bull market just saying that 11217 is right. Quality and uniqueness relative to the rest of the country continues in both NYC as a whole and its housing stock in particular.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 12:08 PM

I never responded to any of Miss Muffetts posts until yesterday when I asked her what was her backup plan if she turns out to be wrong. Can't remember but I think it had something to do with the increasing affordability of homes due to the interest rate decline.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 12:11 PM

11217 I agree with you 100% the areas of Fl, Az, Ca are the problems. I do think NYC will be fine.

Posted by: sebb at December 2, 2008 12:14 PM

Not sure about the end of the world has already started or is getting closer and closer but few things should be mentioned here:

- Deeds recorded now, means that sales went into contract 2 to 3 month earlier and thus prior to the big economic crisis. So it will be interested to see what will happen in early 09 when the impacts of the crisis are going to be real.

- Sometime you bite off more than you can chew, see for example the 237 14th street house that was sold for 1.995 on 10/30 (http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2008/11/last_weeks_bigg_35.php) and is now back on the market a month later for $2.150 (http://www.warrenlewis.com/cgi-bin/re/re_show.pl?re_command=show&ID=6502)

So it might be a bit early to start dancing again . . .

Posted by: WorkInProgress at December 2, 2008 12:16 PM

I'll admit I am not sure I fully understand the Street Easy info, but it looks to me like they went into contract on 9/17. Does that mean that in order to change the price the buyer would actually have to back out of the deal? 9/17 was pretty much pre-crash.

Posted by: Ledbury at December 2, 2008 12:23 PM

WorkInProgress i do not think dancing is what anyone is doing. But the market in NYC will not go down like those other states.

Posted by: sebb at December 2, 2008 12:24 PM

WIP...people that buy houses in this price range already have their financing in line or are paying cash. Closings are usually 45 days or less. That puts these contract signings in mid October at the earliest, already into the fall in the equity markets.

No one is dancing just saying that the sky is not falling here as some would suggest

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 12:31 PM

Sure, the REAL financial crisis hit in October, but we have been in a pretty severe credit crisis for a year now.

I don't doubt that 09 is going to be rough, but to suggest now that all of the sudden our problem just began in October is just flat out wrong.

Things have been effed up for a year now, and these purchases were made in the last year.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 12:37 PM

WIP,

I had no idea 237 14th was back on. Do you know the story? The price seemed like a high water mark for a big South Slope frame (even with the outbuilding). Can't imagine the new owners will get that again or more in this climate (even if you don't think the sky is falling).

Posted by: slopefarm at December 2, 2008 12:39 PM

NYC is not immune, prices are crashing in some areas. Park Slope and other highly desireable areas may well continue to do fine, along with second choice hoods like WT. (No offense, I don't live in PS and I like both PS and WT). Our viewpoint may be skewed because of the desirability of brownstones and their consequent resistance to price reductions. But don't think NYC itself is immune.

Posted by: dittoburg at December 2, 2008 12:40 PM

It was many months ago when certain people were scoffing at such sales; pointing out that they represent contracts that were signed months before that. Now almost a year later, as high end homes continue to sell, we hear the same thing.

This doesn't mean (as certain posters like to misinterpret and twist words) that we are in denial that the majority of people are suffering financially these days. It does mean, however, that there are people who can still afford and will continue in the future to be able to afford, to pay the prices shown above.

Posted by: Biff Champion at December 2, 2008 12:40 PM

People who spend over 2 mil on a house probably are not affected by the economy, when will this fact penetrate the naysayers heads?

Posted by: billyboomer at December 2, 2008 12:43 PM

The house in Park Slope that got $4 million is a very unique mansion--I can't remember seeing a house like that on the market in a long time. No matter what crisis we're in, there will always people with lots of money, and they will pay a premium for special properties. It's not an indication of the broader market. This has always been the case, historically. So really, the bulls should not get too excited.

Posted by: nyc87 at December 2, 2008 12:45 PM

ditto: You are right. Prices in sections of Brooklyn (like Bed-Stuy) have already come down significantly since the highs of 1 - 2 years ago. Since my neighborhood doesn't get much attention on highest sales, people surfing this site won't see it.

Posted by: 11233 at December 2, 2008 12:46 PM

Except real estate is local.

Posted by: billyboomer at December 2, 2008 12:48 PM

Its actually pretty silly to draw any conclusions from any of these "best" or "biggest" whether they be buys or pricechops. They are fun to look at, but they are individual data points in a sea of thousands. 3 players a week being able spend big on properties won't do anything for the general NY market. Just like 3 or 4 forced sellers won't drive the market to a crash.
There is plenty of room for debate and some will be right and some wrong, its just that trying to extrapolate the helath of ordinary housing stock based on the biggest or best is begging for misinterpretation.

Posted by: Ledbury at December 2, 2008 12:48 PM

billy...in this stock market, that is probably not true. But there are still a lot of people out there who can spend over $2MM and/or have multiple residences. I think that some of you long-time brooklyn residences just haven't come to grips with it having happened in brooklyn and continuing to do so.

I will once again, to the dismay of all of you, bring up my analysis that there are thousands and thousands of Manhattan condo owners who can sell two and three bedroom condos still for $2-4 MM with typically a 100% gain and come over to buy $2MM brownstones for cash. Brooklyn real estate has gottten a lot more press over "there" in manhattan.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 12:48 PM

I can't fathom why people live in suffocating boxes in the desert known as the UES when they could live in a Brownstone. I suppose one man's meat is another man's poison.

Posted by: dittoburg at December 2, 2008 12:51 PM

I don't think NYC is immune at all. I'm just trying to combat some of the implications that some on here seem to think that brownstones should be selling for 750K now in prime areas due to the financial crisis. It doesn't happen that fast, number one. And it's simply not going to be that deep, number 2.

I guess some of it is hyperbole, but it looks as though nice areas are still holding up fine. One would think that if we really are in the next great depression, multiple houses each week wouldn't still be selling for multiple millions.

Seems some do indeed still have money, that's all. Some people have less, and there are fewer with it I suppose, but the wealth in NYC is incredible. I often feel that some posting on here don't seem to understand that. I have 23 year old friends fresh out of college making 300K, 400K, 500K a year. It's true.

I don't at all find it surprising that some people are still buying these gorgeous old homes.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 12:51 PM

that's what attracted me ditto...the space, the yard, the quiet neighborhood. On top of it lower taxes, no CCs and rental income to boot. Kinda a no brainer.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 12:54 PM

DIB & 11217

631 3rd Street - all cash transaction, went into contract 3 days before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

One Brooklyn Bridge Park Unit 1015: went into contract in February, before Bear Sterns and before anyone ever thought every venerable investment bank would either fold or become a commercial bank.

511 3rd Street - all cash transaction, went into contract in October. Not bad, but not subject to the lending woes facing many other buyers.

120 Oceana Drive West - ACRIS does not show a deed being recorded on the date specified above.

52 Berkeley Place - Went into contract in June. No mortgage.

So in short, with the exception of 511 3rd Street, none of these properties really tell us anything about the state of the market right now. Even that property, being an all cash transaction, is not particularly relevant considering the vast majority of people in this country cannot or do not purchase homes for cash.

btw, it took me 10 minutes to look up this data on ACRIS. If the brownstoner staff is going to continually post sales data, take the time to find out the contract date. The deed date tells us almost nothing about the market. This is especially important if the cheerleaders are going to use every sale as some sort of evidence that the real estate market in Brooklyn is impervious to the rapidly deteriorating worldwide economic conditions.

September 15th, the day Lehman Brothers collapsed, was a major turning point in the local economy. Anything that went into contract before that time is basically irrelevant to what is happening today.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 2, 2008 12:54 PM

slopefarm – Sorry do not know the story behind 14th street, Regarding the price my guess is that they are trying to recoup the various costs they had to pay buying the house.

Posted by: WorkInProgress at December 2, 2008 12:54 PM

nyc87 and Ledbury, I agree with both of you. I think it would be very misleading to use the sales listed above as a measure of the health of the real estate market as a whole. My only point is there are buyers out there still (and always will be) who can afford upper end homes and I don't agree with others who suggest these sales wouldn't have occured if the homes were offered today.

Posted by: Biff Champion at December 2, 2008 12:56 PM

11217:

You don't have any 23-year old friends making $500K a year. Stop playin'.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 2, 2008 1:00 PM

I do actually, Pole. One is a male model and he banks about that much...easily.

One of my clients in fact...she's 22 and made around 600K last year.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 1:10 PM

Also just checked in on one of my favorite buildings in Park Slope...153 Lincoln Place...the former brothel turned condo near 7th Avenue.

Those units only went for sale recently (definitely AFTER Lehman collapsed) and 4 of the 10 units have been sold according to Streeteasy.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 1:18 PM

poley, this argument for the "basic irrelevance" of properties that went into contract pre-crash is largely bs. let's review: buyers, especially those rich enough to be paying $2 or $4 million in cash, do not become deaf, dumb and blind to the realities of the marketplace the moment they sign a contract. nor do sellers at that level. if the market was so evidently tanking the 25-50% people talk about and doing it at the speed with which you suggest, any non-idiotic buyer would demand concessions or walk away, and any non-idiotic seller would come to the table and you'd see lower closing prices. owners and buyers of places are rich, and the majority of rich people don't get that way by being stupid, or timid, or emotional about business dealings. obviously, a 10% deposit skews the assessment slightly, but not enough to cover a 25%-50% drop, and not enough to make the closing prices irrelevant.

Posted by: i disagree at December 2, 2008 1:26 PM

^^ owners and buyers of these kind of places.

Posted by: i disagree at December 2, 2008 1:28 PM

i disagree...there is no evidence of an actual or likely "25%-50% drop" in any of these properties. So the 10% downpayment is still very relevant and I would bet money that none of these properties saw further price negotiation at the closing. You've got no basis in (current) reality for that logic.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 1:36 PM

Thing is...the SMART people right now are still figuring out ways to make money. They didn't get rich (by and large) from being stupid, as I disagree has said.

This is obviously anecdotal, but 2008 will be the best year at the firm I'm at since I've been working here (2000). My salary has quadrupled since I began and the day before Thanksgiving, we all got xmas bonuses. One week of pay for every year we've worked here.

To suggest that EVERYONE is waiting in the bread line is a bit overly dramatic. Lots of people are doing poorly, but the majority are still hangin' in there.

If things were as bad as some claim, we would not have had a 3% sales increase on the Black Friday. We would have had a HUGE decrease.

The fact that a 3% increase can be considered the end of the retail world goes to show how ridiculously consumption oriented our society has become.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 1:37 PM

I think there's some truth to both those who point to continuing deterioration since these went into contract, and those who say some properties will do better than others. That said, even in prime areas, there is a lot of variation between blocks and even properties. Sure, there is the occasional grand mansion by the park, but there are also lots of much less desirable properties and that is where bargains are increasingly to be found. We saw Berkeley which had several price cuts and at one point we were told that the owner was willing to accept an offer of about 2 mil - more power to them if someone came along willing to pay more. But such buyers may be fewer these days, and the low inventory of today may change, and the increasing price cuts, even in prime areas, will have a ripple effect. When Corcoran cuts 400K off a 4 story "beauty" in prime PS i.e. from 2.5 to 2,1, then the lesser house priced at 2.1 suddenly looks overpriced, and when they cut to 1.8, suddenly the even lesser house priced at that point looks overpriced, and so on down the line. Real estate historically moves slowly, so it's not surprising that there is still strength showing so close to what I think is widely agreed these days to have been the peak in the prime areas (not the statistical peak of the whole NYC area, which was earlier). I have yet to hear even the bullest of the bulls predict any price increases in the year to come, so I think I personally am in a good position, since we will keep looking now til we find the right thing at an affordable price. There *are* price cuts now, undeniably, even in prime areas, and the trend, if anything is for those to continue, not reverse. How steep those cuts will get is anyone's guess. This is certainly not the end of the world but it is a major economic downturn and indeed even the prime areas of NYC will not be immune.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 2, 2008 1:54 PM

yeah, that's my point dave. if either party believed that such a drop in the market was likely in the near future, you would see price negotiation at or before closing, or walking away. that the prices held steady is indicative that both parties believed the price remains good despite changes in the market between contract and closing. that, in turn, means that "post-crisis" closing prices of "pre-crisis" contracts are still relevant (though i do believe that you have to discount a little bit for the effect of the deposit).

Posted by: i disagree at December 2, 2008 1:57 PM

Re: 14th Street Warren Lewis house - I noticed that too. Does seem like perhaps a distressed seller? It can't be a flip since the new owner will barely recoup costs even if they were to sell at that vastly inflated price (to cover closing costs when they bought, and brokers commission when/if they sell). Perhaps they went into contract and regretted it, but then figured they were worse off losing the 10% down (almost 200K) than whatever the loss is they will sustain now? Very strange.

And 11217 - are you a lawyer? If not, what kind of work do you do? Just curious.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 2, 2008 1:58 PM

"I think I personally am in a good position"

- Miss Muff it

You assume we care.

Posted by: 11233 at December 2, 2008 2:00 PM

I manage musicians.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 2:02 PM

I Disagree:

I am not saying the market is tanking, only that these sales are not particularly relevant to discussing the market TODAY.

My point is that "buyers, especially those rich enough to be paying $2 or $4 million in cash" are exceptionally rare and almost all of them either make (or made) their money through usurious activities, i.e. hedge funds, or are tied to industries that feed upon that wealth, such as 11217's model example above.

People with that much cash did not make it through industry, producing necessary goods or services in demand by the people. They gained their money through what amounted to economic rent. That system is over.

I too know quite a few very wealthy people and it was not until September 15th that they actually began to realize that the gravy train was coming to an end.

Me thinks you protest a bit too much. When new sales come into play with relevant contract dates, we shall see who is right.

11217: I'm working on a condo project in a prime part of Manhattan that is being foreclosed upon. There are of course no actual recorded contracts for any comparable buildings in the area since September 15th, of which there are many. In searching for unrecorded contracts, I can assure you all the brokers with whom I have spoken are full of it. They all give me different data about these "contracts". I do believe it is just a lull, but brokers right now are hardly being honest. I wouldn't trust Streeteasy or any broker unless you know them personally.

A lot of very big activity has happened in the past month. The biggest is certainly the liquidity the Fed has pumped into the system. The amount just in November is 600% greater than the entire previous year combined. This is an astronomical number. For the past 40 years, it's been a 25% change, plus or minus, year over year. While banks that do not participate in the Federal Reserve System are fine, these are typically smaller community banks that do not create the multimillionaires like Jon Brownstoner who typically buy $4MM townhouses.

Banking as we know it is over and something terrible is just around the corner.

For the record, my business is doing well and I am making more money than I did last year. I don't think Park Slope is going to become a slum. I'm simply saying that that the typical buyer of these homes at these prices DID in fact make their money by being stupid and believing that the reckless system of money lending we have had for the past 50 years would last forever. They were fools, and with their fall will go their money that bolstered these prices.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 2, 2008 2:02 PM

11233 - you may not care 11233 but some buyers do - it's not just about me, but about anyone in a good position to buy right now. This is not a moment one has to rush to buy - the hoopla of the last few years has faded, replaced by the recognition that one will probably be rewarded by patience.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 2, 2008 2:04 PM

I wonder if the One Brooklyn combo sale was the Stribling sale everyone has talked so much about.

Posted by: PHfamily at December 2, 2008 2:08 PM

Who said any of this is "hoopla" Ms. Muffet??

I think some people just want to buy a home.

You talk only in dollars and cents, but some people may want to purchase a home now because they like it, and don't come across what they like every day.

I'm not sorry I bought for a number of reasons. The number one reason is that I love my place, and think it's special. I feel as though it was totally worth what I paid, because it is a great place for me.

Not everyone think of life only in dollar signs, like you appear to.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 2:10 PM

"it's not just about me"

- Miss Muff it

Actually, it is all about you. All the time.

Posted by: 11233 at December 2, 2008 2:11 PM

poley, my argument that recent sales are relevant makes sense. and i disagree with you because your argument makes no sense and, as is now clear, is based on a bunch of weird vitriolic and counterfactual assumptions. as for protesting too much, check your word count.

Posted by: i disagree at December 2, 2008 2:19 PM

I disagree:

We'll see who is right soon enough, like I said. Maybe Brownstoner should set up an off shore gambling outfit so we can all place bets on these predictions. That seems right up your alley.

PS: I'd love to know what "vitriolic and counterfactual" assumptions I have made.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 2, 2008 2:28 PM

No, 11233 it's not all me - believe me, there are lots of first-time buyers who are relieved that things are calming down. 11217, I know it's not just about dollars and cents - if it were, we'd have a bought another place by now but have criteria about the features we want - we loved the last place we owned too so know all about that feeling of being happy with a purchase. The hoopla I was referring to was the frenzy of the last few years which encouraged many buyers to pay more than they could afford, banking on rising home values. That's what's gone away - not the desire to buy a home. The difference is that now, people are more cautious with how they spend their money since income is more vulnerable, and home values on the downturn, at least for a while.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 2, 2008 2:29 PM

An example just popped into my head when thinking about Ms. Muffet's posts...I used to go into stores and see one pair of slacks I really wanted, but there were too expensive for what I wanted to pay. They only had one of my size but I really wanted them.

Do I wait and see if it goes on sale and hope they still have that one pair, or do I pay a little more now to ensure I get what I what and the correct size.

Ok, analogy, right?

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 2:30 PM

"believe me, there are lots of first-time buyers who are relieved that things are calming down"

Yes, because so many first time buyers are debating between 2.1 and 2.8 million dollar homes...

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 2:32 PM

"We'll see who is right soon enough, like I said. Maybe Brownstoner should set up an off shore gambling outfit so we can all place bets on these predictions."

Why does it have to be offshore? Seems like such betting can be done via credit default swaps, which are perfectly legal.

Posted by: Biff Champion at December 2, 2008 2:34 PM

"it's not all me "

- Miss Muff it

Yes, it is.

Stop posting your inane dribble. If you want to buy a house, buy one. If you want to wait. Wait. No one cares what you are doing or why.

Your insistance that we all need to read about you and your never ending search is boring and an indication of some serious mental health issues. Seek professional help.

Posted by: 11233 at December 2, 2008 2:34 PM

Polemicist, please explain how you find the contract date in acris. Do you mean streeteasy?

Posted by: NorthHeights at December 2, 2008 2:36 PM

I love all this benign barbing today. AND NOT ONE WORD FROM THE WHAT. Christmas has truly come early.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 2:46 PM

11233 - Miss Muffett suffers from OCD - a form of anxiety that is soothed by seemingly endless and uncontrollable repetition. This is why she feels the need to report every day, several times a day, that she believes she is in a good position in regards to the real estate market. This blog has basically become a repository for people slowly being driven insane by their obsession with NYC real estate.

Posted by: gkw at December 2, 2008 2:48 PM

NorthHeights:

You have to actually look at the deed (click on the IMG button) and go to the Real Property Transfer Report. It's usually located at the back of the document after the actual sale contract. Under the Sale Information section, you'll see the contract date and the deed date.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 2, 2008 2:48 PM

Biff: No. We are protected from ourselves, you have to be an Accredited Investor :-)

11217: Or you could stake out the store and loudly talk about what poor quality the pants are (or even all pants in general and how they will soon be on sale) .

11233: "vitriolic" what a great word!

Posted by: Aussie at December 2, 2008 2:49 PM

no, we won't see who is right. because i'll still be arguing that current closings are relevant to the current market...and you'll still be shifting your argument to whatever makes you feel right. maybe it makes you feel better to assume these people with lots of cash are terrible scumsuckers who assumed that the system would go on forever and will thus have their comeuppance. far more likely is that they, just like you, didn't really question the system which provided them with their livelihood and instead made the most of it for as long as they could. far more likely is that they are equally, if not more, capable as you to see whatever writing there is on the wall and act in a way that protects their wealth. far more likely is that their position when things stabilize will remain, as it is apparently now, materially superior to yours.

Posted by: i disagree at December 2, 2008 2:50 PM

gkw gets QOTD...I spit my afternoon coffee all over the desk. Now I won't get anything done..

"This blog has basically become a repository for people slowly being driven insane by their obsession with NYC real estate."

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 2:51 PM

gkw gets QOTD...I spit my afternoon coffee all over the desk. Now I won't get anything done..

"This blog has basically become a repository for people slowly being driven insane by their obsession with NYC real estate."

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 2:52 PM

"Banking as we know it is over and something terrible is just around the corner."

Ding ding din!!!!! We have a winner!!!!

Why are you arguing with these Asshats??!! Leave them alone... They are toxic to your mental health.

The Banking system is FUBAr and the Asshats are STILL saying that NYC is immune to price drops??!! Holy Mother Mary Jesus!!!

For the retards! Central Banks are the only enities that is loaning money and providing liquidity to the system. Everyone else is hiding in US Treasuries because they can't trust anyone to pay back their money. This is going on WORLDWIDE, this includes NYC, Asshats!

Fed Extends Three Emergency Loan Programs to April (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awOdD.b.3HuY&refer=home

"Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve extended the term of three emergency-loan programs to April 30 from January 30, aligning their expiration dates with other central bank efforts to mitigate the credit crisis.

The Primary Dealer Credit Facility and Term Securities Lending Facility, created in March, and the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, begun in September, were lengthened “in light of continuing strains in financial markets,” the Fed said today in a statement in Washington.

The three loan facilities, part of the central bank’s efforts to cushion financial markets from the worst crisis in seven decades, had about $304 billion in loans outstanding as of last week. The Fed already authorized other programs through April for supporting the commercial paper market and money-market funds and for swapping dollars with 14 central banks."

I can't wait for 2009. The Asshats are going to get their rectums handed to them! Hiya Dave, how much money did your HF lose today??

The What (But.. But... they told me it was a safe investment...)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at December 2, 2008 2:53 PM

"I can't wait for 2009. The Asshats are going to get their rectums handed to them"

That's what you said about 2008 last year.

So far, my rectum is doing great.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 2:56 PM

Always with the rectum analogies. What a athetic and pointless rant..

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 3:00 PM

Wait, you actually read that Dave?

My eye skipped right to rectum (and people say we aren't born like this...?) and then I posted...

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 3:01 PM

"Biff: No. We are protected from ourselves, you have to be an Accredited Investor :-)"

Aussie, good one, mate!

Posted by: Biff Champion at December 2, 2008 3:01 PM

what about their hats - when are they going to get the hats?

Posted by: dittoburg at December 2, 2008 3:02 PM

What..you just don't deserve a civil response anymore...but this goes out to you and your sister whom you've introduced us to recently...

Oh my god
Becky, look at her butt
Its so big
She looks like one of those rap guys girlfriends
Who understands those rap guys
They only talk to her because she looks like a total prostitute
I mean her butt
It's just so big
I can't believe it's so round
It's just out there
I mean, it's gross
Look, she's just so black

*rap*
I like big butts and I can not lie
You other brothers can't deny
That when a girl walks in with an itty bitty waist
And a round thing in your face
You get sprung
Wanna pull up tough
Cuz you notice that butt was stuffed
Deep in the jeans she's wearing
I'm hooked and I can't stop staring
Oh, baby I wanna get with ya
And take your picture
My homeboys tried to warn me
But that butt you got
Make Me so horney
Ooh, rump of smooth skin
You say you wanna get in my benz
Well use me use me cuz you aint that average groupy

I've seen them dancin'
To hell with romancin'
She's Sweat,Wet, got it goin like a turbo vette

I'm tired of magazines
Saying flat butts are the thing
Take the average black man and ask him that
She gotta pack much back

So Fellas (yeah) Fellas(yeah)
Has your girlfriend got the butt (hell yeah)
Well shake it, shake it, shake it, shake it, shake that healthy butt
Baby got back

And I like'em round and big
And when I'm throwin a gig
I just can't help myself
I'm actin like an animal
Now here's my scandal

I wanna get you home
And UH, double up UH UH
I aint talkin bout playboy
Cuz silicone parts were made for toys
I wannem real thick and juicy
So find that juicy double
Mixalot's in trouble
Beggin for a piece of that bubble
So I'm lookin' at rock videos
Knockin these bimbos walkin like hoes
You can have them bimbos
I'll keep my women like Flo Jo
A word to the thick soul sistas
I wanna get with ya
I won't cus or hit ya
But I gotta be straight when I say I wanna --
Til the break of dawn
Baby Got it goin on
Alot of pimps won't like this song
Cuz them punks lie to hit it and quit it
But I'd rather stay and play
Cuz I'm long and I'm strong
And I'm down to get the friction on

So ladies (yeah), Ladies (yeah)
Do you wanna roll in my Mercedes (yeah)
Then turn around
Stick it out
Even white boys got to shout
Baby got back

Yeah baby
When it comes to females
Cosmo ain't got nothin to do with my selection
36-24-36
Only if she's 5'3"

So your girlfriend throws a Honda
Playin workout tapes by Fonda
But Fonda ain't got a motor in the back

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 3:04 PM

"My eye skipped right to rectum (and people say we aren't born like this...?) and then I posted..."

As off topic as can be for this thread, but related to 11217's post. This was in amny today...

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_11104232?source=most_viewed

Posted by: Biff Champion at December 2, 2008 3:08 PM

Yes Biff...just saw that in the bathroom copy of AMNY about an hour ago.

I suspect that's what 11217 was referring to. I may be an "ass man" but a separate study must be done on those with an obsession for the rectum...you know who (what, when where)

What...you never answered my question posed for the fourth time now...Just what is it that you do for a living?

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 3:12 PM

I disagree:

I don't have to "shift" anything. There have been numerous high profile court cases in this city, the World Trade Center site being the most notable, where it is well established that the closing/deed date is not relevant when discussing market conditions.

Most buyers, unless under serious duress or if a bank won't give them a loan, will honor a contract they signed. You may not be familiar with civil law, but you can be sued for breaking a contract. You seem to think that buyers, especially high net worth buyers with lots of cash, will just walk away from a sale contract because they think the market is tanking. You would be wrong.

To anyone who cares,

I just checked out some of my comparable buildings on StreetEasy. I have a list of contracts from the very broker representing one of the buildings - they are all vastly different (lower) than the data on StreetEasy. That site is bunk. Don't trust it.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 2, 2008 3:17 PM

Miss muffet just face it in a year from now you will get fed up that prices in NYC did not go down much. Then you will convince yourself that you never liked Brooklyn anyway. In turn you will move to New Jersey and become a miserable drunk.

Posted by: sebb at December 2, 2008 3:19 PM

That was harsh sebb. :)

From the Union Hall party, I think many of us are already drunks. We are just not miserable. :)

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 3:25 PM

:) Dave Drunk is ok. Miserable hurts.

Posted by: sebb at December 2, 2008 3:30 PM

Pole, I don't know tons about Streeteasy, but thought it was a fairly reliable site for information. Why do you think it's untrustworthy? Is it run by brokers??

Posted by: Biff Champion at December 2, 2008 3:42 PM

Biff...are you saying brokers are untrustworthy?

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 3:45 PM

"Biff...are you saying brokers are untrustworthy?"

Actually, DIBS, my questions were redundant. I should have just asked the latter question, which would have made the answer to the first crystal clear.

But if it isn't run by brokers, I'm still unsure why Pole thinks the info on it is bunk. I've tracked certain properties there and am fairly certain that their information regarding days on the market, price drops and selling prices was accurate.

Posted by: Biff Champion at December 2, 2008 3:50 PM

Biff Champion:

I don't do too much residential real estate, so I can't say I'm a great expert with the site. I'd imagine their data for existing buildings is probably more accurate than new development product where deals can be in contract for years. My particular experience today is purely with new buildings that are currently under construction.

All I know is I have a stack of contract listing from a major Manhattan residential broker (who could potentially testify on the matter) and I just compared it with the contract data on Street Easy, which supposedly came from this very same broker (which is exclusive to the buildings in question). It doesn't match and the Street Easy data is much higher. By an amount I don't like (15% on average I'd say)

Honestly, it's probably as simple as they don't vet their data. The broker sends them the data and that's that.

Could it just be my 3 buildings? Maybe, but I doubt it. So, I guess maybe it's not appropriate for me to say the site is bunk based on those 3 example properties. Take from my experience what you will.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 2, 2008 4:04 PM

"the data on StreetEasy. That site is bunk. Don't trust it."

Really? I know this is only "anecdotal" information, but my bf recently sold a place and bought another. The Streeteasy data posted on both transactions is accurate.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at December 2, 2008 4:06 PM

"Honestly, it's probably as simple as they don't vet their data."

I think you are right on that. I've noticed that the data seems more suspect/unclear on new developments.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at December 2, 2008 4:19 PM

Sebb - if prices don't go down much, I'll probably just buy a place at a modest discount, instead of a big one.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 2, 2008 4:27 PM

Pole, thanks for the response. What you say wrt to new development data could be true. I virtually never look at new developments/developments under construction; that's not what I'm interested in. I only look at existing residential buildings.

I would guess the issue, is there is one, is not vetting the data, as you said.

Like SnarkSlope, I've found the information on existing residential homes accurate and the sales figures have matched the Acris data for every sale I've checked.

Posted by: Biff Champion at December 2, 2008 4:32 PM

P.S. Sebb - I meant I'd buy in Brooklyn, not NJ. I'm not a big drinker, and even all the bile on this site does not make me need to drink!

Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 2, 2008 4:36 PM

Smoke pot then?

;-)

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 4:41 PM

Isn't Streeteasy the site where last week supposedly cheaper rents in many prime Manhattan neighborhoods than in prime Brooklyn....so that would tell you how reliable their info is.

Posted by: Petebklyn at December 2, 2008 5:03 PM

FWIW, sales transactions since Thanksgiving have been UP over last year, but sales dollar value has been flat -- of course, because everything is madly on sale. 70 percent off at Saks, anyone?

Posted by: mopar at December 2, 2008 5:05 PM

Polemicist - please don't get discouraged by the idiots venting on this board today. Thank you for some insightful commentary.

Posted by: HellsBelles at December 2, 2008 5:10 PM

"This blog has basically become a repository for people slowly being driven insane by their obsession with NYC real estate."

OMG, that describes me to a T.

Posted by: mopar at December 2, 2008 5:13 PM

Isn't Streeteasy the site where last week supposedly cheaper rents in many prime Manhattan neighborhoods than in prime Brooklyn....so that would tell you how reliable their info is.

I've been hearing for 2 years now from friends looking to rent that Park Slope is more expensive than a number of Manhattan neighborhoods.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 5:14 PM

The thing about "Park Slope" is that it's a big neighborhood with a lot of variability. Maybe a grand place right on the park in PS321 is on the more expensive side, but there are *lots* of more modest properties (apts and houses) further from the park or further south that are a whole different ballgame. So, when people say "rents in Park Slope are more expensive than parts of Manhattan" I wonder where exactly in Park Slope? Where in Manhattan? Real estate is often very specific to a particular block, specific property, etc. That's why some properties (the grandest ones, in the very most coveted locations) may hold up slightly better than the properties that need more renovation, have less than ideal layouts, etc. From our long search for property, there are actually only a handful of really prime places out there (at least in our price range, under 2mil) since so many places do need quite a bit of work or involve pretty significant compromises.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 2, 2008 5:59 PM

Yes, but which neighborhoods in Manhattan???

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at December 2, 2008 6:00 PM

I think Prime Park Slope rents are more expensive than parts of the Upper East Side closest to the river, Murray Hill, and parts of the Lower East Side for sure...

I'm not saying this is good or bad news, just saying what I think and have heard from others who have looked. I wish rents were a little lower so more people I know could afford it.

Ms. Muffet...I've always believed that Park Slope is Flatbush to 15th Street and PPW to 4th Avenue. I don't know what the debate is about...those are the neighborhood's boundaries.

Sure, there are pockets within that geographic area which are less expensive than others, but the whole neighborhood is pretty darn pricey.

Posted by: 11217 at December 2, 2008 6:07 PM

HellsBelles:

Thank you for your support. Fear not, a lot of my work involves adversarial negotiations or legal actions - so this is nothing.

It's pretty fun actually. Many of my detractors have fairly typical views. This site has been enormously helpful over the years in learning to anticipate how the average person thinks about real estate economics, economics in general, and land use public policy.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 2, 2008 6:13 PM

"This site has been enormously helpful over the years in learning to anticipate how the average person thinks about real estate economics, economics in general, and land use public policy."

- Polemicist

You are the most average of posters, Polie. Your attempts to be insulting are transparent. Grow up.

Posted by: 11233 at December 2, 2008 6:44 PM

Polemicist,

I found you rather full of doom and gloom today compared to your normal self. You used to extol the virtues of urban living...Do you still? Since you're "on the ground" so to speak, I guess you've been seeing this in real time.

Do you still think urbanism is the answer? Is it the safest place to ride out the future or should we move to small town America (with farms nearby)?

I wish these discussions (above) wouldn't turn into such vulgar displays of youthful frivolity but what can we do?!

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at December 2, 2008 6:52 PM

Posted by: Polemicist at December 2, 2008 2:02 PM
"My point is that buyers rich enough to be paying $2 or $4 million in cash are exceptionally rare and almost all of them either make (or made) their money through usurious activities ... People with that much cash did not make it through industry, producing necessary goods or services in demand by the people."

Polemicist, I'm sorry, but that is just about the most moronic comment I have read in awhile on this blog. What about the buyers selling appreciated real estate and trading up? Plus, I'm quite interested in what you think qualifies as a "necessary goods or services in demand by The People."

Now back to my anvil ... have a few more horseshoes to forge, then butter to churn, then a barn to raise ... see you at the Collective!

Posted by: Mr Joist at December 2, 2008 7:04 PM

i don't care what market this is. it's frickin hard to find the place you want in this city. i describe it as "shit i don't want at prices I can't afford." a broker buddy of mine says that every single buyer complains that they can't get what they want at every price point imaginable even those with millions. i think that you have to decide past very superficial thoughts what it is that absolutely matters to you, so miss muffett just has gotten there yet.

Posted by: wine lover at December 2, 2008 9:21 PM

Hi Asshats! I want to leave you with the diddy...

Manhattan Awash in Open Office Space

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/business/03blocks.html?_r=1

"Almost 16 million square feet is currently listed as available in large blocks in 68 office buildings in Manhattan, according to Colliers ABR, a commercial brokerage firm. That is nearly double the space available a year ago, both in terms of the number of large office blocks — which in New York usually means 100,000 square feet or more — and in terms of total square feet."

"Those figures are widely expected to go much higher, said Robert L. Sammons, the managing director of research for Colliers ABR. He said it was difficult to get a handle on exactly how much space financial companies alone might put back onto the Manhattan office market over the next year or so."

Lookie Here!! Wall Street is showing the Asshats the door! Hedge Funds are getting murdered! The "Artsy" Asshat crowd is going back to Nebraska! Leechferks Asshat are leaving! So what does that mean for Brooklyn?? When Manhattan gets cheap Brooklyn is going to get killed....

Boy I can't wait for 2009, hot damn!!!

The What (But.. But.. they told me I can get 6000.00 a month...)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at December 2, 2008 9:56 PM

Well wine lover - in the year and a half that we've been very seriously looking to buy a house (although we've been perusing houses for years before that too), we bid on at least 4-5. For various reasons, even when we had accepted offers, we did not wind up getting (sometimes on our side, sometimes on seller side). But the experience has shown me that while yes, it is hard to find something you love (we've looked at literally hundreds of houses, and probably dozens in last 1.5 years), it's not *that* hard. It's kind of like a long-term relationship or marriage: it only takes one. So, one may have a wish list, but provided one has some flexibility/vision, there are actually a number of things that can work. (By the way 11217, this is why you're wrong to think that I only care about the dollar value of a house - believe me, I care about much more and have become very educated about lay-out, finishes, block by block amenities etc). Anyway, I agree with chicken that, just because one can afford to overpay, why should one do so? Especially in this kind of economy, seems financially irresponsible. Despite the bile directed at my comments, no one has denied that prices are coming down.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at December 2, 2008 10:29 PM

Miss Muffett just chill. I bet you will get the house your are looking for. Do not be irresponsible with your finances and future just be patient.

The What (But.. But I paid 1.7 million and now it's worth 900k??????)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return of The What at December 2, 2008 10:59 PM

11217 you're an idiot "If things were as bad as some claim, we would not have had a 3% sales increase on the Black Friday. We would have had a HUGE decrease."

Anybody with a basic understanding of what is going on knows that there were insane discounts and the retailers margins were hammered. Basically fire sales through out the city. Of course, Sat/ Sunday went back to abysmal sales #s. When Comme des Garcons and other ultra high end shops are having 40% off BEFORE december starts you know theres BIG problems. I'm assuming you know that the people who shop at CdG, Yohji Yamamoto are the upper echelon of society and what they're saying is that sales are abysmal.

If you really believe what you say that NYC is not getting hammered you're just an oblivious moron.

Posted by: cornerbodega at December 3, 2008 2:36 AM

BrooklynGreene:

I'm really just trying to urge a median way, or at least an acceptance of ignorance. It seems most people on this site either believe the city will descend into chaos and anarchy or will continue to become a bastion for the rich. I'm not willing to commit to either view.

While I don't think finance as we know it will recover, I do honestly believe New York City is well positioned to be an ideal place to live and do business. The question is: what will the business be?

There is a possibility the entire social and economic system of this country will collapse, and at times I think it will, but fleeing the city is not for me. That said, I do very much hope our many dilapidated small cities become vibrant again.

We all have the opportunity to play a small role in contributing to the ideas that will shape our future, hopefully for the better. Now is the time to make history!

So in short, I'm not all doom and gloom, yet.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 3, 2008 9:43 AM

Mr Joist:

If you honestly believe the "trading up" shell game can continue ad infinitum, there is nothing I could say in this post to change your mind.

I'm happy you believe in the fundamentals of capitalism, you just have to come to understand the fact that our financial system is not related to it. This city is a testament to the fact we need not have central banking, exotic financial instruments, or any of the other modern "innovations" that have resulted in the highest level of debt slavery ever known in history.

11233:

While I can't recall you as being one of my detractors, I did not mean to insult you or anyone else. If you believe that my views are typical of the opponents with whom you frequently debate, then I'm sure you too can benefit from the arguments we have.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 3, 2008 10:01 AM

Polemicist: I have often disagreed with your comments. Perhaps you haven't noticed since so many people on this site disagree with you. And, since one of us is actually paying attention, you rarely have an intelligent repsonse to criticism so I won't waste any more time on you since you are not the brightest bulb on the tree.

Posted by: 11233 at December 3, 2008 1:16 PM

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