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November 25, 2008

Last Week's Biggest Sales

Quite a chasm between 31 PPW's original listing price and what it eventually sold for.

1. PARK SLOPE $2,375,000
31 Prospect Park West GMAP (left)
As chronicled in a HOTD post in late July, this 2,800-square-foot one-family was first listed for $3,250,000 in April. There were several price cuts in the months that followed ($2.6 million was its lowest asking), and it went into contract in September. Deed recorded 11/21.

2. PARK SLOPE $1,802,500
239 8th Street GMAP (right)
Per StreetEasy, this 2,920-square-foot, two-family was originally listed at $1,995,000 in late May. There were smallish price cuts in June, July, and this month, before it closed. It last sold for $835,000, in September 2006. Deed recorded 11/19.

3. MANHATTAN BEACH $1,500,000
270 Dover Street GMAP
1,895-sf, one-family built circa 1915, according to Property Shark. Deed recorded 11/21.

4. FORT GREENE $1,406,250
137 South Oxford Street GMAP
3,520, three-family, according to Property Shark. We're curious about the lack of a listings trail on this one. Anyone know what the story was? Deed recorded 11/19.

5. BROOKLYN HEIGHTS $1,331,670
One Brooklyn Bridge Park, Unit 1008 GMAP
Sale included a parking spot. Deed recorded 11/19.

239 8th Street photo from Property Shark.

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Comments

I'm glad to see that PPW house sold finally. It wasn't my favorite house, so I'm not shocked about the final selling price.

But holy crap on the 8th street house...they made a MILLION BUCKS in 2 years on that sale!!

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 11:34 AM

11217 - it's possible they made a million bucks but it's much more likely that they invested at least half of that million, and probably more like $700k, in the renovation (including carrying costs, etc.). check out the pics on street easy to see. no WAY could that interior have come along with the $835k they paid in '06.

Posted by: i disagree at November 25, 2008 11:45 AM

For that matter, how in earth did they pay $835K for that place in 2006. Even if it was a shell it would have gone for more in 2006.

Posted by: Left Hook at November 25, 2008 11:48 AM

also, per street easy, it looks like they added a floor to the top.

Posted by: i disagree at November 25, 2008 11:49 AM

i am nosy and was intrigued, so i looked into 8th street. it looks like the sellers barely broke even, but don't feel bad, because they previously made "hundreds of thousands" in profits renovating three prior places in brooklyn:

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2008/10/26/trapped/?page=5

Posted by: i disagree at November 25, 2008 12:05 PM

The 8th Street house DID have a 4th story--the owners had done a gut renovation and had added a 4th floor. A lot of dough was spent on that renovation.

PPW house sold for almost $1 million less than the original listing price--what a disconnect! It was a very cute house.

Posted by: nyc87 at November 25, 2008 12:06 PM

great work i_disagree! very interesting.

Posted by: nyc87 at November 25, 2008 12:11 PM

I saw 8th Street back in 2006 and again this past year. In 2006 it was a tiny wreck (just like the house next door to it, which was also put on the market this spring). The buyers basically treated it as a piece of land and a shell of an exterior, and totally re-did everything including adding an extension and a full floor (and thus lots of extra sf). Because the owners were pros at doing this kind of thing, they did the renovation pretty economically so I think they did still make out with a profit, albeit a slimmer one than they had hoped. The renovated house itself looked like it could be featured in a Dwell magazine photo shoot, but I was not convinced re: the quality of the work - plus, it was the kind of house where you had to really like the aesthetic choices, which were very specific. This must have gone into contract pre-meltdown, as did PPW house (owner seemed to be getting progressively more desperate this summer) - just a taste of what's to come, to all those who say that "prime" areas won't suffer big price cuts.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 1:02 PM

Miss Muffet,
There you go being positive again!
:-)

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at November 25, 2008 1:31 PM

There might be a month or two more of these crazy [sucker] prices because most likely these buyers/sellers went into contract 2 or 3 months ago. Manhattan prices as well as prime Park Slope & Brooklyn Heights WILL follow national trends [20% to 30% price reductions] especially with Wall Street laying off over 100 thousand jobs. NYC real estate is going to be hit hard by next spring.

Outlook Grows More Dire for Housing Market
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/business/economy/26housing.html?ref=business

Case-Shiller report ... Los Angeles, Miami, San Diego and San Francisco all had annual declines of more than 26 percent. Prices in New York have fallen 7.3 percent since September 2007.

[NYC]Inventory Rises, if Not Sales
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/23/realestate/23deal2.html?ref=realestate

The number of apartments that went into contract or had accepted offers in October plunged by 20 percent compared with September, and by 62 percent compared with October 2007, according to figures provided by the Corcoran Group, a residential real estate firm.

Posted by: ZooLander at November 25, 2008 1:34 PM

Re: 8th Street, Park Slope:

i_disagree!, great detective work. This should be a wake-up call for all those that think they can do an extensive renovation "on the cheap." Yes, this couple added a floor, did a total gut, etc. but they spent almost a MILLION bucks on a ~2,900sf house ... and some people are still questioning the quality. Of course someone will now post that they can do an extensive reno of a townhouse for $75,000 per floor but that is simply BS if plumbing and electric need to be replaced and you want halfway decent fixtures. $150k to $200k seems to be more realistic even in this market (where GC's are hungrier).

P.S. Am I the only one annoyed by virtually all of Miss Muffet's posts? They always seem to have a slightly bitchy tone. No offense.

Posted by: Mr Joist at November 25, 2008 1:42 PM

What I think is really interesting is looking at the comments on PPW house back in April. Yes, there were some nay-sayers out there (back then, you could comment as an anonymous "guest") but there were bulls saying that 3.2million was a great price - and that there might even be a bidding war! Unfortunately, some sellers are *still* asking very aggressive prices and THAT is why prices still need to come down a LOT, even in prime areas.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 1:46 PM

"P.S. Am I the only one annoyed by virtually all of Miss Muffet's posts? They always seem to have a slightly bitchy tone. No offense."

You are not alone. I skip her posts now. Always the same thing. And she makes zero distinction between a house selling at a discount because of the housing bubble collapse and a house priced too high in the first place. It's like a broken record and yes, bitchy.

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 2:09 PM

MY OPINION: Prime Brownstone Brooklyn has demonstrated property price strength and will continue do so. Not by going up or staying flat but by falling less and recovering first.

THE DILEMMA FOR MISS MUFFETT : It must be hard seeing the sheer number of job losses, forclosures, and stock declines and still not see the property prices you want. It must be hard to find yourself hoping an economic recovery doesn't happen. I just don't think it is human nature to do it. We like to think we can get what we want without people being hurt. That is way she always insists people will be ok and they have made money even though there have been declines.

Posted by: Aussie at November 25, 2008 2:47 PM

Mr. Joist, you are definitely not alone. Since posting in July to say she was "dying to buy a modest townhouse", Muffett has posted nearly every day (does she have a job to support her R.E. opinion habit?), banging the exact same drum about how much further prices need to come down for her to buy the dream home that is her god-given right. Muffett: it isn't that you are wrong about prices. Nobody knows what they will do, including you. It's that you are turning the comments into an echo chamber for your own aspirational neuroses and sense of entitlement, and won't shut up about it, and NOBODY CARES whether you get a house or not. And whenever you do finally get a house, we can all expect to be treated to your opinions on why it was finally the right time to buy. But maybe even then the market will drop another 50% and Brooklyn will revert to a Warriors-esque hellscape, and you will be kept up nights by mortar fire and the inescapable fear that you overpaid.

Posted by: Frederick Law Homestead at November 25, 2008 2:54 PM

Everyone who wants Muffet to shut the hell up, say I!

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 2:57 PM

Nay!

Muffet - Prices will fall by next year when NYC unemployment is around 9% ...

Posted by: ZooLander at November 25, 2008 3:04 PM

Frederick Law Homestead NAILED Ms. Muffet perfectly.

You summed it up better than I could have.

Reading her posts drain me, so I've stopped.

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 3:17 PM

Ms Muffet the market will be at its low on June 29,2009. Call your broker that day. Cause its all up from there.

Posted by: billyboomer at November 25, 2008 3:41 PM

Peace out to Miss Muffet. She's in my camp. I cannot get enough of her intelligent comments (yeah, I'm biased but her comments are intelligent). Repetition is key. Most of you still don't get it. You say "yeah, I know prices will fall" but you think it's gonna just be limited to 10 percent price sanding. So delusional. There's not enough scoffing at these still ridiculously high prices. Not long ago you bulls (or gummy bears) thought prices would keep going up. Then you revised your forecast that prices would move sideways. Now the price sands. The facts, historical symptoms and logic need to be drilled into your head over and over again. Keep going Miss Muffet. Repetition is key.

We have to read over and over again "urbanization, everybody wants to live in NYC, population to skyrocket by 2030, yada yada yada". Euphoria (in spite of economic comparisons to the Great Depression) is constantly pumped on this blog. It is the duty of a bull to dissiminate what's REALLY likely to happen in the months and years to come. There's not enough scoffing at these prices.

The negative responses to Miss Muffet are obviously those of owners/developers who are now questioning their positions. If she's not REALLY in your head, you don't respond. But you do. It speaks volumes. But you were warned about this crash for months and even years.

Just my kneejerk rant. (remember, repetition is key).

Posted by: 25 to 50 Percent Drop at November 25, 2008 3:45 PM

"June 29,2009"

Absurd. Prices will bottom when Case-Shiller YOY approaches zero. Right now, it's moving away from zero. See my post on Tuesday Links. It's a process, not an event. The implosion is on nobody's schedule. Deadline? Ha! Could be 2009, could be 2019. Good things come to those who wait.

Posted by: 25 to 50 Percent Drop at November 25, 2008 3:51 PM

Actually, urbanization and increased population are based on statistics and study. These things ARE happening.

As for prices, no one knows. That's the difference. You can say how much prices will drop all you like. You have no idea, nor do I. We DO know however that the world is moving towards urbanization and we DO KNOW that the world's population is increasing.

Your comparison of these things shows just how desperate you are to convince people of...well...nothing...

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 3:53 PM

Ms. Muffet is pissed that prices are still high, and she bailed and has been throwing away money on rent instead of coming one year closer to paying off the house. Not to mention that Brooklyn prices have increased for the past 2 years even though everyone was saying 2006 was the bottom. It wasn't until this last quarter that prices finally started to fall. So you missed out on another 10-15% appreciation and you're bitter, it sounds like.

You don't sound like a young woman, Ms. Muffet...how do you plan to finance this alleged home purchase when prices bottom?

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 3:56 PM

"throwing away money on rent"

Wwwooooowwww! You still fall for that garbage? You haven't heard enough of Miss Muffet. Keep reading her posts please.

Posted by: 25 to 50 Percent Drop at November 25, 2008 4:03 PM

"Good things come to those who wait."

Aw, my dad always used to say that. : )

Posted by: cobblehiller at November 25, 2008 4:08 PM

Daddy knows best. Unless of course he thinks prices won't tank 25 to 50 percent.

Posted by: 25 to 50 Percent Drop at November 25, 2008 4:13 PM

11217 - I sold just a few months ago, and in that time, have seen the price drops begin (but just barely - they are starting to accelerate). I rented a modest, albeit nice place with a relatively cheap rent (yes, there are plenty of these, even in prime Bklyn). Trust me, even if I rent for 2-3 years, I will have saved tons off the price drops I'm already seeing for houses in our price range so contrary to your assertion that I'm "throwing money away" in fact I'm saving bundles by renting short-term instead of buying when values are still over-inflated. I have plenty of cash to finance the next house, but am being more conservative in how I spend it, given the fragility of the economy. I'm not the slightest bit bitter or "pissed" since I'm in a very lucky position - just incredulous at the tone of people like you who are the ones who *really* sound angry and bitter as a result of the current market shift.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 4:16 PM

I don't read her posts anymore. I think I know what is best for me financially. I don't need to take advice from some poster on a blog, thanks.

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 4:18 PM

I honestly do not care if my house price halves over the next year. I love my home and my monthly mortgage payment is HUNDREDS of dollars less than a comparable rental. With the interest deduction, you'd laugh at how low my mortgage is.

Funny though Ms. Muffet...I've now seen 4 other people comment about how they don't appreciate your comments all that much, so clearly I'm not the only one...

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 4:20 PM

i too am annoyed by miss muffett. what's most annoying to me isn't so much the nearly verbatim repetition (though that bugs and is, frankly, a little weird) of her position on where prices will bottom out - because she might be right. it's that whenever we're talking about any specific home, her comments to defend whatever she's saying are based largely on supposition and assertions which are often just wrong. on 8th street, for example: 1) she says she thinks the owners still profited, though slimly (to suggest, of course, that we need not worry about sellers suffering), despite that the article i linked to specifically says they're barely breaking even; 2) she says, without basis, that the quality of the work wasn't "convincing" to her (to suggest, of course, that she was correct in finding it overpriced) despite that the sellers were pro renovators who did a Dwell-quality reno; 3) she says it must have gone into contract pre-meltdown (to suggest, of course, that the pricing is irrelevant and not reflective ), despite that the posting and street easy make clear that the buyer demanded a discount after it was in contract and the article talks about how the sellers were forced to sell due to job relocation; and 4) says this is somehow a harbinger of "prime" areas suffering big price cuts, despite that this house, which is on a nice but not exactly pristine block between 4th and 5th avenue, received a less than 10% discount from original ask in the middle of economic meltdown.

Posted by: i disagree at November 25, 2008 4:31 PM

THANK YOU I disagree.

Who needs facts when we have Ms. Muffet to throw out her baseless conjectures all day, though...?!

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 4:37 PM

I disagree - I happened to have followed 8th street house closely since I knew various people who knew sellers personally - I was getting my info from them and not an anonymous article. And yes, bet 4/5 is not really "prime" but PPW is - though really these days what realtors claim is prime PS has stretched (and since this house is in PS39, they market that as better than, say, south slope blocks bet 4/5). Contrary to what you think, I often actually base my comments on specific research.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 4:38 PM

"Absurd. Prices will bottom when Case-Shiller YOY approaches zero."

DOW (l'll keep using your old name): Prices wont bottom at the point you describe, they will have certainly reached a bottom BY this point, and QOQ and MOM graphs will have shown it for some time. The smoothing effect of using YOY numbers ensures that even conservatively a true bottom has been reached. Of course it may show a bottom 2 years or more after what we will eventually know was the bottom looking back.

11217: It is way more than 4 other people.

Muffett believes she can move the market. This is not shares it is a fairly illiquid market, maybe she can to some degree. Like the What, she peddles fear.

Posted by: Aussie at November 25, 2008 4:39 PM

I also think it's highlarious that Ms. Muffet tells people on here that they should sell now and get the last remaining drop of appreciation they can before hell breaks lose.

Sorry, but that's not good for the real estate market, it's certainly not good advice for people who haven't either lost their job or gotten a divorce and most importantly it's horrible advice for those interested in the overall health of Brooklyn.

I find her comments more creepy as time goes on. The way she just reiterates these things over and over. Unlike DOW's advice, the repetitive nature of her posts basically numbs everyone to them to the point that I'd say very few people think that what she has to say holds much validity at this point.

But there will STILL be another post or 60 tonight from her telling us all this incredibly interesting and "new" news that prices are coming down!

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 4:47 PM

no one's a bigger bitch than 11217.
what's the matter with than nut job?

Posted by: Inigo at November 25, 2008 4:49 PM

11217 - I'm really no more repetitive than you are. I'm not deluded to think I can move any market, just pointing out the obvious, which folks like you don't like to hear.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 4:49 PM

muffy: the article is not anonymous. i think daniel mcginn (national correspondent for newsweek, published author with random house) and the boston globe would be offended to hear you say that. he quotes the seller herself which is at least as good if not better then the "various people" you know who say they knew the sellers personally. why on earth would they be motivated to lie in a national publication about barely breaking even if they'd actually profited?

Posted by: i disagree at November 25, 2008 4:50 PM

OK, I'm writing from work, should not have said boston globe article is anonymous. I retract my comment about 8th street sellers since who knows where the truth is? Maybe sellers told the journalist they did not profit (maybe they did not want to admit the profit they made?), but maybe they were telling the truth. Not sure why sellers contacts would have lied either. Really, I don't want to get bogged down on this - just a hazard of writing while trying to get my work done (yes, I do have a real job!) So forget it. Next.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 4:57 PM

11217 has something goin' on. Either he is a realtor facing the prospects of an extremely lean rest of his life, or he is trying to sell some dumpy walk-up and can't. The desperation is obvious.
You just have to accept the fact that prices for houses are coming down. I think by a lot. Neither Muffet nor I nor a desperate realtor can stop it.

Posted by: Inigo at November 25, 2008 4:57 PM

"Prices wont bottom at the point you describe, they will have certainly reached a bottom BY this point, and QOQ and MOM graphs will have shown it for some time."

Didn't say AT, said APPROACHES. "some time" = 9 months max (see below). Not bad for a top/bottom (peak/trough) call in RE.

NYC Metro Case-Shiller Index

MONTH YEAR, READING, MOM, YOY
January 1987 74.42 Trough
February 1987 75.43 1.36%
March 1987 76.25 2.46%
April 1987 77.34 3.92%
May 1987 79.16 6.37%
June 1987 80.84 8.63%
July 1987 82.22 10.48%
August 1987 83.01 11.54%
September 1987 83.44 12.12%
October 1987 83.88 12.71%
November 1987 84.02 12.90%
December 1987 84.41 13.42%
January 1988 84.12 13.03% 13.03%
February 1988 83.92 12.77% 11.26%
March 1988 83.48 12.17% 9.48%
April 1988 83.71 12.48% 8.24%
May 1988 84.23 13.18% 6.40%
June 1988 84.59 13.67% 4.64%
July 1988 85.02 14.24% 3.41%
August 1988 85.33 14.66% 2.79%
September 1988 85.54 Peak 14.94% 2.52%
October 1988 85.14 -0.47% 1.50%
November 1988 84.82 -0.84% 0.95%
December 1988 84.33 -1.41% -0.09%
January 1989 84.32 -1.43% 0.24%
February 1989 83.77 -2.07% -0.18%
March 1989 83.27 -2.65% -0.25%
April 1989 82.94 -3.04% -0.92%
May 1989 82.97 -3.00% -1.50%
June 1989 82.95 -3.03% -1.94%
July 1989 82.67 -3.36% -2.76%
August 1989 82.63 -3.40% -3.16%
September 1989 82.38 -3.69% -3.69%
October 1989 82.36 -3.72% -3.27%
November 1989 81.85 -4.31% -3.50%
December 1989 81.32 -4.93% -3.57%
January 1990 80.89 -5.44% -4.07%
February 1990 80.53 -5.86% -3.87%
March 1990 79.99 -6.49% -3.94%
April 1990 79.34 -7.25% -4.34%
May 1990 79.05 -7.59% -4.72%
June 1990 78.96 -7.69% -4.81%
July 1990 78.78 -7.90% -4.71%
August 1990 78.21 -8.57% -5.35%
September 1990 77.41 -9.50% -6.03%
October 1990 76.80 -10.22% -6.75%
November 1990 76.14 -10.99% -6.98%
December 1990 75.60 -11.62% -7.03%
January 1991 74.59 -12.80% -7.79%
February 1991 73.69 -13.85% -8.49%
March 1991 72.87 -14.81% -8.90%
April 1991 72.29 Trough -15.49% -8.89%
May 1991 72.63 0.47% -8.12%
June 1991 73.50 1.67% -6.91%
July 1991 74.39 2.90% -5.57%
August 1991 74.90 3.61% -4.23%
September 1991 75.06 3.83% -3.04%
October 1991 75.01 3.76% -2.33%
November 1991 74.84 3.53% -1.71%
December 1991 74.74 3.39% -1.14%
January 1992 74.59 3.18% 0.00%
February 1992 74.38 2.89% 0.94%
March 1992 74.27 2.74% 1.92%
April 1992 74.40 2.92% 2.92%
May 1992 74.69 3.32% 2.84%
June 1992 75.14 3.94% 2.23%
July 1992 75.47 4.40% 1.45%
August 1992 75.79 4.84% 1.19%
September 1992 75.74 4.77% 0.91%
October 1992 75.48 4.41% 0.63%
November 1992 75.38 4.27% 0.72%
December 1992 75.35 4.23% 0.82%
January 1993 75.54 4.50% 1.27%
February 1993 75.42 4.33% 1.40%
March 1993 75.32 4.19% 1.41%
April 1993 75.34 4.22% 1.26%
May 1993 75.71 4.73% 1.37%
June 1993 76.44 5.74% 1.73%
July 1993 76.84 6.29% 1.82%
August 1993 76.99 6.50% 1.58%
September 1993 76.99 6.50% 1.65%
October 1993 76.92 6.40% 1.91%
November 1993 76.88 6.35% 1.99%
December 1993 76.71 6.11% 1.80%
January 1994 76.61 5.98% 1.42%
February 1994 76.43 5.73% 1.34%
March 1994 76.60 5.96% 1.70%
April 1994 76.88 6.35% 2.04%
May 1994 77.55 7.28% 2.43%
June 1994 78.20 8.18% 2.30%
July 1994 78.78 8.98% 2.52%
August 1994 79.08 9.39% 2.71%
September 1994 79.08 9.39% 2.71%
October 1994 78.87 9.10% 2.54%
November 1994 78.50 8.59% 2.11%
December 1994 78.36 8.40% 2.15%
January 1995 78.28 8.29% 2.18%
February 1995 78.29 8.30% 2.43%
March 1995 77.95 7.83% 1.76%
April 1995 77.77 7.58% 1.16%
May 1995 78.03 7.94% 0.62%
June 1995 78.58 8.70% 0.49%
July 1995 78.99 9.27% 0.27%
August 1995 79.17 9.52% 0.11%
September 1995 79.17 9.52% 0.11%
October 1995 79.11 9.43% 0.30%
November 1995 78.85 9.07% 0.45%
December 1995 78.70 8.87% 0.43%
January 1996 78.63 8.77% 0.45%
February 1996 78.73 8.91% 0.56%
March 1996 78.90 9.14% 1.22%
April 1996 78.94 9.20% 1.50%
May 1996 79.36 9.78% 1.70%
June 1996 79.52 10.00% 1.20%
July 1996 79.97 10.62% 1.24%
August 1996 80.31 11.09% 1.44%
September 1996 80.45 11.29% 1.62%
October 1996 80.35 11.15% 1.57%
November 1996 80.02 10.69% 1.48%
December 1996 80.03 10.71% 1.69%
January 1997 80.08 10.78% 1.84%
February 1997 80.08 10.78% 1.71%
March 1997 79.97 10.62% 1.36%
April 1997 80.03 10.71% 1.38%
May 1997 80.53 11.40% 1.47%
June 1997 81.53 12.78% 2.53%
July 1997 82.32 13.87% 2.94%
August 1997 82.72 14.43% 3.00%
September 1997 82.80 14.54% 2.92%
October 1997 82.84 14.59% 3.10%
November 1997 82.94 14.73% 3.65%
December 1997 83.11 14.97% 3.85%
January 1998 83.36 15.31% 4.10%
February 1998 83.85 15.99% 4.71%
March 1998 84.28 16.59% 5.39%
April 1998 84.76 17.25% 5.91%
May 1998 85.52 18.30% 6.20%
June 1998 86.58 19.77% 6.19%
July 1998 87.70 21.32% 6.54%
August 1998 88.48 22.40% 6.96%
September 1998 89.04 23.17% 7.54%
October 1998 89.31 23.54% 7.81%
November 1998 89.41 23.68% 7.80%
December 1998 89.43 23.71% 7.60%
January 1999 89.49 23.79% 7.35%
February 1999 89.89 24.35% 7.20%
March 1999 90.56 25.27% 7.45%
April 1999 91.59 26.70% 8.06%
May 1999 92.49 27.94% 8.15%
June 1999 94.07 30.13% 8.65%
July 1999 95.47 32.07% 8.86%
August 1999 96.88 34.02% 9.49%
September 1999 97.67 35.11% 9.69%
October 1999 98.24 35.90% 10.00%
November 1999 98.59 36.38% 10.27%
December 1999 99.28 37.34% 11.01%
January 2000 100.00 38.33% 11.74%
February 2000 100.54 39.08% 11.85%
March 2000 101.27 40.09% 11.83%
April 2000 102.41 41.67% 11.81%
May 2000 104.35 44.35% 12.82%
June 2000 106.00 46.63% 12.68%
July 2000 107.52 48.73% 12.62%
August 2000 108.90 50.64% 12.41%
September 2000 109.76 51.83% 12.38%
October 2000 110.51 52.87% 12.49%
November 2000 110.89 53.40% 12.48%
December 2000 111.87 54.75% 12.68%
January 2001 112.66 55.84% 12.66%
February 2001 113.51 57.02% 12.90%
March 2001 114.48 58.36% 13.04%
April 2001 115.60 59.91% 12.88%
May 2001 116.38 60.99% 11.53%
June 2001 117.90 63.09% 11.23%
July 2001 119.66 65.53% 11.29%
August 2001 121.41 67.95% 11.49%
September 2001 122.91 70.02% 11.98%
October 2001 123.86 71.34% 12.08%
November 2001 124.74 72.55% 12.49%
December 2001 124.72 72.53% 11.49%
January 2002 125.19 73.18% 11.12%
February 2002 125.40 73.47% 10.47%
March 2002 126.50 74.99% 10.50%
April 2002 127.93 76.97% 10.67%
May 2002 129.89 79.68% 11.61%
June 2002 132.20 82.87% 12.13%
July 2002 135.18 87.00% 12.97%
August 2002 137.74 90.54% 13.45%
September 2002 139.69 93.24% 13.65%
October 2002 141.58 95.85% 14.31%
November 2002 143.29 98.22% 14.87%
December 2002 145.20 100.86% 16.42%
January 2003 146.55 102.73% 17.06%
February 2003 147.30 103.76% 17.46%
March 2003 148.38 105.26% 17.30%
April 2003 149.53 106.85% 16.88%
May 2003 150.88 108.71% 16.16%
June 2003 151.86 110.07% 14.87%
July 2003 153.50 112.34% 13.55%
August 2003 155.14 114.61% 12.63%
September 2003 157.10 117.32% 12.46%
October 2003 158.73 119.57% 12.11%
November 2003 160.59 122.15% 12.07%
December 2003 162.31 124.53% 11.78%
January 2004 163.63 126.35% 11.65%
February 2004 164.92 128.14% 11.96%
March 2004 166.61 130.47% 12.29%
April 2004 168.30 132.81% 12.55%
May 2004 170.52 135.88% 13.02%
June 2004 172.90 139.18% 13.85%
July 2004 175.74 143.10% 14.49%
August 2004 177.93 146.13% 14.69%
September 2004 179.79 148.71% 14.44%
October 2004 181.90 151.63% 14.60%
November 2004 183.69 154.10% 14.38%
December 2004 185.16 156.14% 14.08%
January 2005 187.19 158.94% 14.40%
February 2005 189.29 161.85% 14.78%
March 2005 192.17 165.83% 15.34%
April 2005 194.10 168.50% 15.33%
May 2005 195.96 171.07% 14.92%
June 2005 197.77 173.58% 14.38%
July 2005 199.86 176.47% 13.72%
August 2005 202.33 179.89% 13.71%
September 2005 204.83 183.34% 13.93%
October 2005 207.64 187.23% 14.15%
November 2005 210.30 190.91% 14.49%
December 2005 212.68 194.20% 14.86%
January 2006 213.50 195.34% 14.06%
February 2006 214.47 196.68% 13.30%
March 2006 214.33 196.49% 11.53%
April 2006 214.97 197.37% 10.75%
May 2006 215.57 198.20% 10.01%
June 2006 215.83 Peak 198.56% 9.13% -29.64%
July 2006 215.25 -0.27% 7.70%
August 2006 214.34 -0.69% 5.94%
September 2006 214.08 -0.81% 4.52%
October 2006 214.28 -0.72% 3.20%
November 2006 214.23 -0.74% 1.87%
December 2006 213.79 -0.95% 0.52%
January 2007 212.78 -1.41% -0.34%
February 2007 212.52 -1.53% -0.91%
March 2007 212.39 -1.59% -0.91%
April 2007 211.61 -1.96% -1.56%
May 2007 210.51 -2.46% -2.35%
June 2007 209.49 -2.94% -2.94%
July 2007 208.36 -3.46% -3.20%
August 2007 207.15 -4.02% -3.35%
September 2007 206.35 -4.39% -3.61%
October 2007 205.54 -4.77% -4.08%
November 2007 204.58 -5.21% -4.50%
December 2007 202.47 -6.19% -5.29%
January 2008 200.78 -6.97% -5.64%
February 2008 198.45 -8.05% -6.62%
March 2008 196.53 -8.94% -7.47%
April 2008 194.78 -9.75% -7.95%
May 2008 193.88 -10.17% -7.90%
June 2008 194.22 -10.01% -7.29%
July 2008 193.64 -10.28% -7.06%
August 2008 193.33 -10.42% -6.67%
September 2008 191.32 -11.36% -7.28%

Miss Muffet can't move the market alone but that's not what she's trying to do. She's aligning herself, advertently or not, with other bulls who can and will move the market en masse. You know and I know that booms andd busts are all about mass psychology. RE might not be stocks but it behaves very similarly in slow motion. Fraud, deceipt, euphoria and greed, followed by relevation, reality and fear. Boom! Crash!

Bulls peddle greed. Bears peddle fear. I see nothing wrong with Miss Muffets posts.

Much respect for you though, Aussie.

Posted by: 25 to 50 Percent Drop at November 25, 2008 5:06 PM

You obviously don't read well, Inigo. I just said (as I have many times) that I don't care about home prices. There is a lot more to worry about in the world, then how much my house (on paper) costs since I have ZERO intention of leaving.

If you knew me or read any of my posts, you would know how much I love Park Slope. I have no plans to leave anytime soon. This is my home.

Despite what you think, I actually WELCOME price declines, especially in my neighborhood where too many younger and more creative people have been priced out. I would LOVE to have more neighbors like myself instead of more and more people who can afford 2 million dollars and up. I welcome price declines so that some of my friends who want to buy a place, can.

As for me being repetitive, at least I post on other topics, oftentimes actually contribute (or try to) on the actual houses, and speak about a variety of different subjects and posts.

You on the other hand Ms. Muffet speak about one thing and one thing only. You don't post about the retail, the restaurants...you only post your diatribe about how prices are falling and you managed to escape it.

It's silly.

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 5:06 PM

11217 - I've got kids and a full time job, so limit my posts to the aspect of real estate that is currently most interesting to me - prices. Perhaps if I get a deal and can work a bit less I'll have time to post on retail/restaurants (though, frugal person that I am, I don't eat out much nor shop a lot). Contrary to what you say, I do post about home layout, politics, etc. and have posted quite a bit about schools.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 5:10 PM

this house on 8th street is nice and on a not so great block. So the sale price seems great to me. Even after a discount during the sky is falling economic meltdown. I really do not give a crap what the case shiller index says or how the housing market in surburban Atlanta is doing or some crap condos in Vegas. Park Slope is a local real estate market if there ever was one. And I only see brownstones being more desirable, sure the prices will drop some. But if the great depression 2 is avoided, which it will be, then there will be a small correction in the market, but no way is it going to be 40% off prices now. And if this happens I will eat crow. The supply is too limited. And the old timers like me (HA) are not going to sell in a down market, cause I don't have to. My mortgage is 1/4 your rent. Suckers.

Posted by: billyboomer at November 25, 2008 5:11 PM

The fact that dropping prices is the most interesting aspect of real estate to you, says it all I think.

Especially when so many people in this country are losing everything due to said prices falling.

Glad it's happening as it needs to, but you seem to take a special pride in it all and I find it sick.

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 5:12 PM

once again, nobody here seriously disputes that house prices are coming down. the discussion, to the extent there is rational discussion, involves disagreement about the relevance of recent sales or activity in listings as an indicator of present or future direction of the market. miss muffett always and uniformly posts that asking prices and sales of the homes discussed are irrelevant for one reason (contract made pre-crisis!) or another (delusional seller!) or no reason at all (writing while trying to get work done!), and that prices are going down by 50%. most of the rest of us have a more nuanced view and a far less tourettes-like way of expressing it.

Posted by: i disagree at November 25, 2008 5:13 PM

relevation

Posted by: 25 to 50 Percent Drop at November 25, 2008 5:14 PM

revelation (the count was full!)

Posted by: 25 to 50 Percent Drop at November 25, 2008 5:16 PM

11217 - remember - there's 2 sides to every coin. Dropping prices are bad for some people, good for others (not just me). Again, I'm writing from work right now, a bit off the cuff, but to suggest that an interest in prices makes someone a sicko, when lower prices help many people (by your own admission) who were otherwise priced out - well, sorry but I find that kind of accusation bizarre. Say what you will of me, but I've never flung names at you or my other detractors, precisely because I believe there are more important things in life, like being respectful to people of all stripes, even if you disagree.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 5:18 PM

I think I'd prefer that we just not comment on each other's comments, Ms. Muffet.

I really think there's something wrong with you.

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 5:26 PM

Muffett is right. Prices are going down and will not bottom for a while. The road is leading to a pretty obvious place. You either see it or you don't. Frederick doesn't see it, which is fine. He shouldn't make price-based decisions if he doesn't have the foresight and confidence to do so.

There is nothing wrong with repeating the obvious if that's what it takes to get the slow to understand.

Posted by: lechacal at November 25, 2008 5:36 PM

muffy's verbatim repetition of the obvious is merely annoying. it's a straw man to say that she's right because prices are going down. we all know that prices are going down. that doesn't make her right - it makes her not a total idiot. no, the truly grating part about muffy's posts, and the reason why i will continue to argue with her, is that she insists (often without any facts to support her argument) that every sale or listing that does not support an immediate decline of 50% is irrelevant to assessing the market and is merely the product of greed, deceit and/or ignorance. then, the nails-on-the-chalkboard part comes when she tops it off with her bizarre assurances that each individual seller will probably do just fine and reminders that she herself did just great.

Posted by: i disagree at November 25, 2008 5:54 PM

i disagree - you're twisting my words - i'm not saying that. OK, back to work, probably have to give this a rest for a while since I have too many other things to do. Peace out!

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 6:00 PM

Kids,
I call a time-out!!!

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at November 25, 2008 6:05 PM

I disagree - you can't hate me that much if you call me "muffy" ;)

I've conceded some sellers will get hurt and who the hell knows how I'll do in the future - hell, we are all vulnerable. Can we agree that we all love Brooklyn and call a truce?

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 7:09 PM

Stop picking on Miss Muffet, who is nothing if not polite, well reasoned, and entitled to her opinion.

My opinion: I have to disagree with her belief that current prices are "unnatural" and "untenable" because they are so far out of whack with the average or median income. Fact is that parts of Brooklyn are now locations for the elite just like Manhattan, San Francisco, Boston, Paris, Palo Alto, etc. And other parts are very poor. Just because prices are falling drastically in Modesto and Bushwick does not mean the same thing will happen in Palo Alto and Park Slope.

Prices did not fall far or long in the Bay Area during the 1989 downturn. They didn't fall AT ALL after the dot-come downturn. Several hundred thousand people moved out of San Francisco after the crash in 2001, and yet rental prices did not fall from their insane doubling in two years, and sale prices increased. All the millionaires just stayed put in their pads even though they didn't have jobs for three years. (I am close to dozens of such people and acquainted with perhaps hundreds, this is not conjecture.) Now they are off by 10 to 15 percent.

I do think decreases will continue for two years, but it's going to take real calamity for prices to drop 50 percent.

We might be close to real calamity. All the worst-case scenerios that could happen so far have. Citibank has failed, so could the rest of the banking system, and the overwhelming size of the debt and worldwide economic troubles could perhaps mean the US will be unable to borrow more and the government would be bankrupt. (Plus the ripple effects of the mortgage bubble has the potential to cause an amazing numbers of layoffs and bankruptcies, and this is all happening at the same time as the Internet is making old jobs redundant.) I certainly hope it doesn't happen.

I also recently sold and would buy a house tomorrow if I could find one with original details. I love where I live.

Posted by: mopar at November 25, 2008 7:17 PM

muffy! i certainly don't hate you, i just disagree with your reasoning. happy thanksgiving!

Posted by: i disagree at November 25, 2008 7:44 PM

DOW:
April 1991 72.29 Trough -15.49% -8.89%
December 1991 74.74 3.39% -1.14%

So your 1991 buy signal was about 8 months late which made it a pretty good indicator for real estate on that occasion. But I think it is more useful if you are John Paulson than Miss Muffett.

I wish there were more peaks and troughs to see how reliable the signal is in times of intervention. I expect intervention. I doubt the US market can be turned quickly by it but it would be interesting in particular to look at certain cities.

My vision/model of how real estate price declines move through the US is kind of how an infectious virus might. Declines have epicenters and the virus spreads slowly from there into more resistant areas. If the resistant areas are hit they are not hit as badly and they recover faster (although maybe a little later).

The whole country doesn't catch the virus at the same time. As I think you said it is a process. As the parts that caught it first start to recover other (and more) parts of the country catch it also. The relevance of this is that the average number of cases doesn't necessarily reflect what is happening in one particular area. The average decline may increase even as some parts of the country have not yet been exposed and some have been exposed and recovered. The same is true once a City starts its decline. The numbers will continue to increase until the virus has been contained or it has run its course. I see Manhattan and some prime parts of Brooklyn as resistant even with the job losses.

New York will play a major roll in the solution to this problem despite its troubles. Wall St is the conduit through which any solution will flow, it will take its percentage, like it or not, simply because there is no other system.

Respect to you also DOW. Are you actually in the market for a house? I guess you made some money shorting.

Posted by: Aussie at November 25, 2008 7:50 PM

"... the Bay Area... off by 10 to 15 percent."

Actually, FWIW, the Case-Shiller home price index says San Francisco is down 29.5% for the year.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at November 25, 2008 7:52 PM

"There is nothing wrong with repeating the obvious if that's what it takes to get the slow to understand."

Ouch!

Posted by: 25 to 50 Percent Drop at November 25, 2008 8:03 PM

mopar:"Fact is that parts of Brooklyn are now locations for the elite just like Manhattan, San Francisco, Boston, Paris, Palo Alto, etc."

if you compare Harlem, Manhattan to Park Slope you might have a point but that's some serious crazy-ness to think Park Slope is as good as UES or UWS

I don't understand why people are in denial that prices may/can drop by 50% when prices in NYC has increased by 100% or so in the last 8 years ... people wake up ... the Federal government in the last 2 months has guarantee/bought/gave banks over 5 TRILLION dollars and home prices which is the heart of the financial meltdown has NOT stop falling

Posted by: ZooLander at November 25, 2008 8:03 PM

Actually, according to the economist that Charlie Rose had on last night, the figure is 2.3 trillion, Zoolander.

Not 5.

Still a lot of money, but it's half what you say it is.

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 8:19 PM

Bloomberg says:

"The U.S. government is prepared to provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers... The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $3.18 trillion already tapped by financial institutions..."

Posted by: SnarkSlope at November 25, 2008 8:28 PM

DOW/25 to 50: What's up with the new moniker? I suppose it is the fact that your first name goal has been "accomplished?" Anyway, wow I missed an amazing discussion here. Plenty of mudslinging but just enough civility to be entertaining and reasonable. Sorry I didn't get in earlier. Miss Muffett is of course entitled to her opinion and she always delivers it with respect. I don't think that the market is going to tank as hard but I certainly don't think that it is a small adjustment either. Frankly I just do know enough about this circumstance to make intelligent predictions about what will happen. I do think that loving Brooklyn and wanting it to succeed should be a baseline necessity for posting on this board, not that something like that could or should be enforced. We are where we are and no amount of wishing will make it go away or make the market do anything but what its going to do. So...live, that is all you can do.

Posted by: wasder at November 25, 2008 8:40 PM

11217 - If you use your 2.3 Trillion from last night you will have to add today's 0.8 Trillion = 3.1 Trillion

What if this is not enough and does not work? After a certain point US dollars may not be worth the paper it's printed on.

Here's how I came up with my figure of 5 TRILLION dollars

as of 11/18 CNBC article the bailout total 4.2 Trillion and you add today's 0.8 Trillion contribution you get 5 TRILLION dollars

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27719011

Financial Crisis Balance Sheet
Government Entity Billions of Dollars
Federal Reserve
TAF (Term Auction Facility) 900.0

Discount Window Lending
Commercial Banks 99.2
Investment Banks 56.7
Loans to buy ABCP 76.5
AIG 112.5
Bear Stearns 29.5
(TSLF) Term Securities Lending Facility 225.0
Swap Lines 613.0
(MMIFF) Money Market Investor Funding Facility 540.0
Commercial Paper Funding Facility 257.0

(TARP) Treasury Asset Relief Program 700.0

Automakers (for more fuel efficient cars) 25.0
(FHA) Federal Housing Administration 300.0
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac 350.0

Total 4284.5

Posted by: ZooLander at November 25, 2008 8:41 PM

$8.317 trillion according to the latest CNBC artilce

Potential Cost of US Financial Bailout: Over $8 Trillion
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27912307

8,317,000,000,000.00

I think my great grand kids will probably have to repaid this back

Posted by: ZooLander at November 25, 2008 8:54 PM

Guys - I just want to clear up a misunderstanding: it is not that I necessarily *want* the market to tank 50% since I understand that a drop of that amount could mean other undesirable things could be going on in our neighborhoods. On the other hand, I don't think a major price fall *requires* that everything else go to hell, since prices went up so far, so fast, so a 50% drop brings us back to say, levels at around 2003-05 (depends on exact property of course). I'm also not saying a 50% drop is inevitable - I've said many times that no one can really know. A significant drop of some kind is pretty much agreed upon by all at this point, but the size and length of the downturn cannot be predicted fully since there are still too many moving parts. Anyway, I agree with wasder that folks should have as a baseline some good will towards Brooklyn to participate in these discussions and I certainly share the desire for Brooklyn to succeed. To the extent that I do want prices to come down, it's not just for my own selfish reasons (though of course, I would like at last to be able to buy an affordable family-sized home in the good school zones we've prioritized), but also because I truly believe it will be a good thing for first time buyers to have a chance to buy into my neighborhood now that things will become affordable. So although 11217 slings lots of mud at me, we actually do have this in common, and I suspect other things too. Happy Thanksgiving to all, even you 11217, despite your feelings about me!

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 9:21 PM

Happy T-day to you too Ms. Muffet.

I don't hate you. Things just got a little hot and heavy today. We all show our love for Brooklyn in different ways. I apologize if I offended you.

My sense of humor is also incredibly dry and sarcastic, so I'm sure I come off a lot more harsh than I sound in my head...

Posted by: 11217 at November 25, 2008 10:35 PM

Aw shucks 11217. Really, I do think we agree more than we disagree. Here's to Brooklyn, and a happy holiday to all.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at November 25, 2008 10:46 PM

to all those who thinks 50% drop in home prices in Manhattan & elite Brooklyn is impossible you should youtube "Peter Schiff" ... he predicted the financial meltdown exactly back in 2006

the last 7 years of economic growth was built on debt and now the US government is printing money like Zimbabwe ... WE'RE all in deep trouble

Happy Turkey Day ... better enjoy it because next year who knows what we all eating

Posted by: ZooLander at November 25, 2008 10:56 PM

"Happy Turkey Day ... better enjoy it because next year who knows what we all eating"

oh no!!!!

The economy is going to force us all to eat tofu-turkey!

Posted by: slick at November 26, 2008 2:16 AM

"Are you actually in the market for a house? I guess you made some money shorting."

Yup, in the market for a browstone. Nope, didn't short (dangerous game). My DOW 8000 was more of a prediction for the housing market. I wasn't in the markets until now. Huge long term opportunities in stocks. Just have to pick the right ones.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 26, 2008 10:28 AM

"DOW/25 to 50: What's up with the new moniker? I suppose it is the fact that your first name goal has been "accomplished?" "

Yeah, DOW was getting boring now that it has arrived. 25 to 50 (% off brownstones and apartments) is my new call.

Whoops, logged in incorrectly. Gotta get used to this new handle.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at November 26, 2008 10:34 AM

Snarkslope, is that Case-Shiller figure for SF specifically or the Bay Area as a whole? Actually, I have to confess the figure of 10 to 15 percent is only for Palo Alto and I was playing fast and loose to suggest it applied to SF only...but I would think it does!

I looked at the foreclosure rates by county over the weekend, and there were a surprising number in SF. Hardly any at all in Marin County. Zillions in obscure parts of the Bay Area I didn't even know were actually in the Bay Area, like Sonora.

If SF is down nearly 30 percent, that's incredible. Of course, it will probably disappointingly turn out to be only houses in Hunter's Point and faux "lofts" south of Market that have dropped, while Victorians in the Mission have tripled in the last five minutes or some such thing.

Posted by: mopar at November 27, 2008 12:20 AM

I mean "it applied to SF also" not "only."

Posted by: mopar at November 27, 2008 10:24 AM

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