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October 27, 2008

The Housing Crisis Has Arrived

changing-order-1008.jpg
That's according to the Daily News, which dissects the unraveling economy's effect on middle class housing here. In the outer boroughs, "house sales are falling faster than the Dow." In the last four years, they say, Brooklyn has seen a 52.7 percent drop in home sales, from 12,089 to 5,716; that's 37.5 percent this year alone. A couple of other articles spotlight individual homes in hard hit neighborhoods. In Sheepshead Bay, one family purchased a $630,000 attached brick home last year and couldn't keep up on mortgage payments; the house has been on the market since early summer. In Greenpoint, a family has been trying to trade up from a north Brooklyn condo to a home in Westchester, but even after they lowered the price, no go: interested buyers couldn't get financing. In Bushwick, a woman's home is in foreclosure after tenants didn't cough up the rent. And in Park Slope, a couple offered less than asking price, citing condo projects in the area that haven't sold at all; they call it a "buyer's market." Their offer was accepted. Meanwhile, other neighborhoods poised to be the next Slope or 'Burg are hurting, too, they write.
Trendy Neighborhoods Can't Escape Housing Slump [NY Daily News]
City's Housing Market Hammered in Fallout from Woeful Economy [NY Daily News]
Photo by Runs With Scissors.




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Comments

"And in Park Slope, a couple offered less than asking price"

I guess that reinforces everything the What was saying!!! What's the world coming to if places in PS go for less than ask??

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 27, 2008 9:08 AM

Pricing will be coming down. It will take at least a year for the market in NY to truly hit bottom most likely 18 months. The prices do not justify the rents you could get on these homes.

Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 27, 2008 9:09 AM

After prices skewed widely upwards from incomes, it was fairly inevitable this would all end in tears, credit crisis or not. $630k for a place in Sheepshead Bay never made sense.

I feel badly for these people, they weren't flippers, they were all living in their homes. But a shock was needed to bring back prices in line with incomes. (and rents as HR points out).

Posted by: dittoburg at October 27, 2008 9:13 AM

Here comes several hundred denial posts....

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at October 27, 2008 9:14 AM

"blood in the water"

I had two condo developers call me over the weekend, leaving messages that they had drastic price reductions and that I should come and look at their places again. They had my number from one of those sign up sheets. I'm going to go look. But, man, I can feel the desperation and fear...

Posted by: theandrewlee at October 27, 2008 9:22 AM

Clermont Greene had an open house over the weekend. It looked like mostly walk-ins like me. They handed us the price sheet , telling us to pretty much ignore it. "Just name a price and we'll see what we can do." The Clermont side will be ready Jan./Feb. The Vanderbilt side is a few months behind. The managing company is determined not to go rental. Could rent-to-own be in their future?

Posted by: liexpat at October 27, 2008 9:39 AM

If you get past the sky is falling hyperbole of the DN article, it doesn’t say much that is not evident to even the casual observer of real estate trends. In the Bed Stuy part of the story, a tale of 2 boarded up Patchen Ave foreclosures across the street from some fugly new construction is hardly proof that Bed Stuy is “over”. Boarded up foreclosures are not homes lost by long time, or even recent on site owners, they are more likely run down wrecks that would be flippers couldn’t unload. Patchen is not exactly the prime end of Bed Stuy, and in-fill new construction tends to be in areas with more blight than much of the rest of the neighborhood. (I said “tends to be”, not always, I know there are exceptions.) Mass foreclosure is not happening in the prime areas of Bed Stuy.

Aside from that, a slowdown is good for Bed Stuy, and probably most other neighborhoods. Prices shot up too fast, too high, and with too much hype, ala New York Magazine articles. As has been argued by myself and others, the best way for sustainable and continuing growth in our neighborhoods is sensible middle class pricing that can be afforded by a larger group of people, not just the rich. Million dollar plus houses surrounded by poverty makes no sense. Such properties do exist, and as prices go down in the future, to more sustainable levels, more will be available. People who are truly interested may have to adjust their expectations, in terms of getting everything they want, as is true everywhere. We may be in a recession, but we are not in post-Apocalyptic Escape from NY world. The prime parts of all neighborhoods, including Bed Stuy, will still be expensive. Those who think they are going to pick up $300K brownstones are smoking some strong stuff.

Posted by: Montrose Morris at October 27, 2008 10:03 AM

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new houses in the U.S.
unexpectedly rose in September from a 17-year low, propelled by a drop in prices ahead of the latest turmoil in financial markets.
Purchases increased 2.7 percent to an annual rate of 464,000 from 452,000 the prior month that was less than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median sales price decreased to a four-year low.

There is demand out there at these prices!!!! This is a big change from how things were going 2,3,6 months ago!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 27, 2008 10:10 AM

Article paints a pretty bleak picture for BedStuy.

Posted by: dosteov at October 27, 2008 10:32 AM

dosteov...read MM's post above at 10:03. Those Patchen Ave homes are hardly representative of most of Bed Stuy.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 27, 2008 10:35 AM

this actually sounds pretty good for bed stuy no? prices may actually dip into not-completely-out-of-the-question for the few people out there who actually have properly prepared to buy and own a home.

The Bushwick woman is a mail handler who bought a house for $455K, then took out another mortgage for $585K. that totally sucks that the tenants stiffed her, but her precarious situation doesn't seem to be an effect of the mortgage crisis so much as this kind of cautionary tale we've all hear about in years past.

Posted by: Jimmy Legs at October 27, 2008 10:55 AM

"Purchases increased 2.7 percent"

And from Marketwatch:

"Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions and sampling and other statistical errors. In most months, the government isn't sure whether sales rose or fell. The standard error in September, for instance, was plus or minus 12.1%."

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 27, 2008 10:56 AM

Thats some s.e.m.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 27, 2008 10:59 AM

Anecdotal evidence:

Our upstairs neighbors listed their 1+ br co-op a couple of weeks ago (center Slope). We were upset--we don't want them to move away!--but we figured that in this economy they'd be there for a while. Nope--they received and accepted an all-cash offer (29k below ask) the week of the first open house.

The last two apts to sell in our building (both in the 500-600 range) have been all-cash sales.

Posted by: edmiha at October 27, 2008 11:06 AM

Three words: Home Price Index. In NYC it is currently at 192. (down from peak of 215.83 in June 2006) - There just isn't enough money to justify these prices. The housing market has been over inflated for 10 years and now that money isn't abundant (it's still historically very cheap), you can expect a pretty striking correction.

Posted by: tippingpoint at October 27, 2008 11:10 AM

edmiha...what was the ask that they took the $29k haircut??? If it was anything above $290,000 then they got the "what used to be normal" 10% dicount to ask offer. Don't know what you're so concerned about!!!!!!

If this ask price was anywhere between 500-600 as you may be suggesting then your concerns are based on bubble mentality and you've never seen a cycle before!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 27, 2008 11:14 AM

If this comment doesn't prove that Jerry Minsky is not very smart, I don't know what does...

"You don't have the 30-year-old hipster from Wall Street buying the $3 million house like in 2006," said Minsky. "The party's kind of over."

I'm sorry, but what hipster that you know works on Wall Street and buys 3 million dollar brownstones in Park Slope?

Posted by: 11217 at October 27, 2008 11:32 AM

They asked 599 and were offered 570. I'm not concerned that the place went below-ask; rather, I'm shocked that anyone has the guts to make an all-cash offer of over half a million bucks in this market! I guess the point of my anecdote is that, at least for some buyers and sellers, "normal" deals are still getting done...

Posted by: edmiha at October 27, 2008 11:35 AM

DIBS - I don't see how you could interpret her tone as concerned in that comment - she was pointing out that the apt flew off the shelf.

Posted by: gkw at October 27, 2008 11:37 AM

I misunderstood then. Yes, it certainly looks as though it "flew off the shelf" and at a very good price given what they were asking.

edmiha...some people are not overladen with debt and have a lot of money stashed away. It doesn't take guts to make an all cash offer when you have all the cash and then some!!!

I don't think rates are all that low here (they are not high either). If rates come down to the 5% level (or below) then it might make sense for these people to actually take out a mortgage. You'd have to get into an environment where you would think the stock market and your other investments are going to return more than 5% on a yearly basis and I don't think we are there yet!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 27, 2008 11:44 AM

It sounds like the seller in Bushwick probably had an unrealistic idea of what her property was worth in the first place. I haven't seen her property, but the most I have ever heard of a two-family selling for is $600,000 in 2006, and hers was priced at $800,000.

Posted by: mopar at October 27, 2008 11:57 AM

I have a friend in town from Europe and we literally walked through and explored about 10 neighborhoods in Brooklyn this weekend. One would never know there is a financial crisis from our walks. Stores and restaurants were packed, I saw open houses with people coming in and out and people seemed to be happy and smiling everywhere we went.

I thought yesterday was one of the most perfect days in this borough I've seen in a long time. Brooklyn feels like it's thriving, despite the fact that our homes might be worth a few less dollars than they were yesterday.

Posted by: 11217 at October 27, 2008 12:00 PM

11217 - On this thread you say "I saw open houses with people coming in and out...Brooklyn feels like it's thriving," yet on the post about the Edge in Williamsburg you say, "This could not be worse timing. These are going to sit here mostly unsold for years."

Why no love for Williamsburg?

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 27, 2008 12:33 PM

" have a friend in town from Europe and we literally walked through and explored about 10 neighborhoods in Brooklyn this weekend."

Yeah, nothing like looking at property prices and then cutting 40% off the price.
Euro to dollar is tasty.

Posted by: Prodigal_Son at October 27, 2008 12:33 PM

Actually, the euro has tanked relative to the dollar in recent weeks (or the dollar has surged, however you look at it). That, plus a looming recession in Europe, will certainly put a damper on the European buyers who were helping to prop up the NYC market. I know what 11217 is talking about in terms of the surface seeming fine, but I think a lot of the pain has not yet hit the prime hoods, but it's starting to, as one can see by the growing price cuts on properties even in the prime hoods - always the first sign of a market turn. What amazes me is how quickly things can drop - again, the euro is a case in point. Just a very short time ago, it was at 1.60 - not it's at 1.25. Gas is another example. NYC real estate may find itself falling faster than expected...

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 27, 2008 12:44 PM

I'm thinking of buying a vacation home on the cote d'azur.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 27, 2008 12:51 PM

All cash deal on 12th Street too. Original list was 549 (I think), current list is 499, and all cash offer was accepted at 485.

These deals are rare, but they are out there. I imagine they plan to stay for awhile, to ride out what will most likely be another drop from 485.

But it's a nice place, and great location.

Posted by: fishmonster123 at October 27, 2008 12:51 PM

Snark,

We didn't walk around Williamsburg. My friend had visited it on a previous visit and wasn't interested in returning (I was more than happy about it, because no, I'm not a fan of Williamsburg...I find it fake, ugly and rather annoying, if I'm to be honest). And for the most part I LOVE Brooklyn, but Williamsburg is not high on my list of places to spend my weekend.

He prefers the older architecture so we hit Park Slope extensively, Gowanus, Carroll Gardens, Brooklyn Heights, Dumbo, Ft. Greene, Prospect Heights, Windsor Terrace and Clinton Hill. Also went to Greenwood Cemetary which was amazing, especially since I had never been before.

Amazing weekend.

Posted by: 11217 at October 27, 2008 12:54 PM

ditto...I would've thought you were more of a Cancun/Koh Samui guy. You could buy one in both of those places plus a few more for the price of a cot d'azur place. And consider the exchange rates. Mexico is at 13.35 today and Thailand is at 34.7!!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 27, 2008 12:57 PM

By the way, I agree that there are still some buyers out there with significant cash reserves, though their numbers will likely dwindle as time goes on. In this climate, they have a clear advantage, as sellers would be wise to take a bird in the hand (all cash offer, even well below ask) than 2 in the bush (higher offer, but contingent on financing which may not come). I've certainly seen more and more deals fall through due to financing problems, and the seller is then left having to accept even less money for their property, as the market continues to deteriorate. Realistic sellers can still make out OK in this market - it's the ones who refuse to accept the reality of the shifting market who will be hurt when their property lingers and they later have to make a much bigger price cut...

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 27, 2008 12:58 PM

And I wasn't really making commentary on prices of houses, Ms. Muffet. I was more commenting that people are out and about enjoying their lives. I really think that obsessing about housing prices should not factor into the enjoyment of one's weekend.

My comment about open houses was more peripheral and just commenting that we saw a few with people going in and out. It doesn't seem like life has stopped, as some of you would suggest. I think some of you need focus some of this incredible attention on falling prices into enjoying life and what this city has to offer a little more. Go support our museums, BAM, the restaurants, the shops, go to one of the awesome galleries that have opened down in the Gowanus. There is a whole world around us waiting to be explored over and over.

Posted by: 11217 at October 27, 2008 12:59 PM

DIBS - thats where I buy my hideaway, not the vacation home.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 27, 2008 1:02 PM

I just never found any of the French men physically attractive!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 27, 2008 1:04 PM

11217 - I think you have an odd opinion of the people on here - the crowd here basically only post during work hours. How many people post at the weekends - none as far as I know.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 27, 2008 1:04 PM

11217 - I couldn't agree more with your point about there being more to life than real estate. I have kids, and they are far and away the best reminder in my life of what is really important!

But real estate goes to the heart of the notion of "home" (not to mention class, personal finances, community, etc.) so I think that's why it riles up such passionate emotions.

As I've also said repeatedly, even if prices dropped as much as 50% (which would huge), we're still talking about being back to prices that were pretty recent, say 2002-03, and there are a lot of people who've owned much longer than that who would not be affected in a majorly adverse way. In other words, even a major correction does not necessarily mean the sky is falling. I heard on NPR the other idea a financial expert pointing that that for many years now, the real crisis in NYC has been lack of affordable housing for many people. Some alleviation of that problem could be the bright side of a market correction.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 27, 2008 1:08 PM

Miss Muffett : I guess nobody has money to buy right?

Broken Securities Industry Still Has $20 Billion to Pay Bonuses

By Christine Harper and Serena Saitto

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Five straight quarters of losses and a 70 percent slide in its stock this year haven't stopped Merrill Lynch & Co. from allocating about $6.7 billion to pay bonuses.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, both still on track for profitable years, have set aside about $13 billion for bonuses after three quarters, down 28 percent from a year ago. Even some employees at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which declared the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history last month, will get the same bonus they received a year ago.

The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a $700 billion taxpayer bailout, public outcry over excessive pay and the demise of three of the biggest securities firms won't deter Wall Street from offering year-end rewards to employees on top of their salaries, compensation experts say.

``Critical producers and critical managers will be retained with the same bonus they had last year,'' said Robert Sloan, head of U.S. financial-services recruiting at Egon Zehnder International, a New York-based executive-search firm. ``The others will see sharp cuts.''

Goldman, the biggest and most profitable Wall Street firm until it opted to become a bank holding company last month, has set aside about $6.85 billion for bonuses, or an average of $210,300 for each employee, down 32 percent from $339,400 a year ago. Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest securities firm until it also converted to a bank, has $6.44 billion for bonuses, or $138,700 per person, down 20 percent from last year. Both firms accrue a fixed percentage of their revenue for compensation, so the decline in bonus pools matches the drop in revenue.

Merrill's Compensation

The money Merrill has set aside for bonuses equates to an average $110,000 for each of its 60,900 people, up from $108,000 a year ago because more than 3,000 jobs have been cut.

The bonus figures are based on estimates that about 60 percent of the compensation and benefits expenses reported by the companies will be paid in year-end bonuses, as occurred in past years. Average bonuses aren't an indication of how much any employee will receive, since payments range widely from assistants to top traders. Bonuses aren't paid until the end of the fiscal year, so firms could choose to reallocate the funds.

``We are in the process of determining appropriate levels of year-end compensation, and no decisions have been made,'' said Mark Lake, a spokesman at Morgan Stanley. Ed Canaday, a spokesman for Goldman in New York, declined to comment.

Merrill spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim said the firm's accrued bonuses aren't down as much as those at Goldman and Morgan Stanley because the firm reduced expenses last year, when it also had a loss. Compensation costs are down 18 percent this year, compared with the first nine months of 2006, Merrill's last profitable year.

`Moratorium on Bonuses'

A worldwide economic slowdown, caused in part by the financial industry's losses, and a U.S. Treasury plan to spend $250 billion of taxpayer money buying stakes in banks, have made pay a political issue this year.

``There should be a moratorium on bonuses,'' Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, told reporters last week. ``If nobody gave them, there wouldn't be a competitive aspect.''

In Zurich, protesters blocked UBS AG's private-banking branch on Paradeplatz last week to seek curbs on executive pay after Switzerland's largest bank was forced to ask for government aid.

$145 Billion

``I'm just flabbergasted that the financial community has failed to show any sense of leadership on this issue and doesn't seem to understand how angry people are at them,'' said Nell Minow, editor of Corporate Library, a Portland, Maine-based corporate-governance research firm. ``They are just a bonus away from having the villagers come after them with torches.''

New York-based Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Lehman and Bear Stearns Cos. awarded their employees a cumulative $145 billion in bonuses from 2003 through 2007, according to estimates based on company reports. That's more than the annual gross domestic product of the Philippines. Last year the firms paid out a record $39 billion.

At the end of this year, companies may decide against paying the money accrued for bonuses and instead use part of it to cover severance costs, said Rose Marie Orens, a New York-based partner at Mercer, the human resources consulting unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos., who specializes in executive compensation for financial- service companies. Goldman and Morgan Stanley end their fiscal year in November, and Merrill's ends in December.

Lehman Bankruptcy

``Whether what you see is what they're going to pay, you can't tell yet,'' she said. ``It's highly unlikely they'll add to those numbers and more likely they'll bring them down.''

Lehman filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15. Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns were rescued in emergency sales to Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are each receiving $10 billion of capital from the government.

Bank of America is offering Merrill's U.S. brokers bonuses of as much as 100 percent of the revenue they generate to keep them after the deal is complete, people briefed on the plan said last week. Scott Silvestri, a spokesman for Bank of America, declined to comment.

Employees at Lehman Brothers in Europe have been promised by their new owner, Nomura Holdings Inc., that they will receive the same bonus as last year, according to two people familiar with the situation. A Nomura spokesman declined to comment.

Earnings Slump

Share prices and profits have dropped more than bonuses so far. Goldman's profit has fallen 47 percent this year, and the stock is down 53 percent. Morgan Stanley's earnings have tumbled 41 percent, and the shares have shed 69 percent of their value.

``Performances have certainly not been what investors would expect,'' said Daniel Moynihan, a principal at Compensation

Posted by: sebb at October 27, 2008 1:24 PM

"At the end of this year, companies may decide against paying the money accrued for bonuses and instead use part of it to cover severance costs"

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 27, 2008 1:27 PM

Sebb, I was wondering where you were. But cutting and pasting tons of excerpts about Wall Street seems like you're in denial about what all the other articles on this blog are increasingly pointing to - falling prices in NYC.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 27, 2008 1:40 PM

Miss Muffett : Let me know when you call the bottom this way I can add up how much you lost by not buying.

Posted by: sebb at October 27, 2008 1:52 PM

Sebb,

Let me know when you get your head out of your a**.

Posted by: 11217 at October 27, 2008 2:04 PM

Ugh, sebb - do we have to keep revisiting this? I'm not "waiting" for the bottom, but how on earth can I be losing in this market by not rushing when prices are coming down all around us? A few houses we were interested in this past spring later had big price cuts - if we had bought them quickly, we would have paid much more than we later would have. So in this market, one does NOT lose money by waiting. Price cuts more than offset the money spent in rent, tax breaks, etc. I will buy a place when it's one we love, at a price that makes sense and that we can afford, but it's very clear from every indicator that waiting can *easily* save us substantially when the direction of the market right now is clearly *down*. Just look at this blog - houses that came on the market at one price frequently later cut over 100K - and sometimes much more - off the price within matter of weeks. Rail all your want, but you a voice that is lonely in the wilderness of a bear market.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 27, 2008 2:10 PM

Sebb cracks me up. He's basically the anti-What. They both have about the same critical thinking skills and the same penchant for cut-and-paste arguments, but their views are on exactly oppsite ends of the spectrum. It's like matter and anti-matter.

What we really need to to get Sebb in a fight with the What. How hilarious would that be?

Posted by: lechacal at October 27, 2008 2:13 PM

...of course I should point out that as between Sebb and The What only one of them has proven correct about anything he has said at this point.

Posted by: lechacal at October 27, 2008 2:16 PM

C'mon...eveybody's looking for a "bottom" in one form or another!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 27, 2008 2:42 PM

nice one dib

Posted by: Polemicist at October 27, 2008 2:48 PM

I know I am.

Posted by: 11217 at October 27, 2008 2:54 PM

I'm sorry, but I don't get this joke.

Anyway, where was that photograph at the top of this story taken? It is very rather depressing looking. I'm sure all of those houses had some decent detail originally and looked respectable before the unfortunate advent of aluminum and then vinyl siding.

...

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at October 27, 2008 6:15 PM

I'm sorry, but I don't get any jokes.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: Return_of_The_What at November 1, 2008 12:32 PM

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