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October 7, 2008

North Brooklyn: Condo Graveyard?

Well, not quite, but the NY Observer wonders if the condo boom around McCarren Park might go bust. "In North Brooklyn (Williamsburg, Greenpoint and the Navy Yards), condominiums accounted for three-quarters of residential sales in the spring of 2008, according to market reports by appraisal firm Miller Samuel," they write. "Between then and the spring of last year, condo sales in the area fell by almost 30 percent, from 174 to 122 sales." Not as bad as some other neighborhoods, apparently. They say that Brooklyn's overall home sales plummeted 43.6% at the same time. Many new North Brooklyn developments have clustered around McCarren Park (after all, pretty soon those buildings can claim a giant pool in their front yard), and while some aren't hurting, the story singles out 55 Eckford, a Scarano project plagued by financing troubles and stop work orders, as well as the infamous Finger Building. The big difference in future sales may be that a buyer wants to see the place finished before they drop the down payment; floor plans alone will no longer be enough to seal the deal.
The Ghost Condos of McCarren Park [NY Observer]
Condos Near McCarren Park. Photo by A.J. Kandy.

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This is not surprising news at all. I think that condos in this area will suffer quite a bit.

Posted by: 11217 at October 7, 2008 11:03 AM

I dunno, everyone who wasn't an ostrich knew there was a high inventory in this area, that prices had stopped rising and started declining in real terms, and that the market was a little shaky, but they still went ahead and bought. Whats going to stop them now. There's a lot of people who really seem to like this area.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 7, 2008 11:09 AM

Whats going to stop them now?

1 - Lack of financing.

2 - Lack of interest.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 7, 2008 11:27 AM

ok, 1 is true if they have non-stellar credit. But why 2 - nothing about the area has changed, and well, re read my post.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 7, 2008 11:40 AM

And perhaps a 31% increase in crime from last year...

I think a lot of people bought in Williamsburg because they thought it was "cool" and they thought that "cool" would translate into a large windfall in appreciation. I really don't think (and actually know from some people who live there) that if they had it to do over again, they'd have landed in brownstone Brooklyn. Williamsburg is a neighborhood still very much in transition in the sense that it's not yet cohesive...there are the young people, the families, the older crowd who'd been there for years. These groups live very separately and have not yet formed the community environment that makes some other neighborhoods really special. Just my opinion. Obviously I do know people who like it, but I've heard more and more people souring on it as of late.

Posted by: 11217 at October 7, 2008 11:44 AM

11217

A 31% increase? Is that really true?

I've always felt they seriously under report crime in Brooklyn, and if they are actually saying it has increased 31% - that is bad news.

Posted by: Polemicist at October 7, 2008 12:00 PM

That's what I read somewhere, Pole.

But yeah...I have more than a couple friends who live by the Lorimer and Graham stops, and they've said there's been a rash of crime lately...the machete guy for one...and there's been a large uptick in robberies and burgleries. A few more murders than last year too, and an increase in gang violence in the southern part of Williamsburg.

Posted by: 11217 at October 7, 2008 12:07 PM

"Machete guy????" I'm glad we don't have that kind of stuff going on over in Bed Stuy 11217.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 7, 2008 12:37 PM

http://www.gowanuslounge.com/2008/07/14/teens-attacked-with-machetes-in-williamsburg/

Posted by: 11217 at October 7, 2008 12:40 PM

The Italians are all moving out (or dying), so of course there's more crime.

My prediction is there will be some kind of environmental issue uncovered with all of the McCarren park construction... I mean there ARE environmental issues there, just when the cash was good it was easy to ignore them.

But I think at the end of the day what annoys me the most about all that new construction is how crappy and small the apartments are. I happily lived in Williamsburg with lots of crime and environmental issues when my apartment was huge and cheap -- without that, it's not such a great deal.

I'm also continually saddened by the razing of North 9th Street.

Posted by: Heather at October 7, 2008 1:12 PM

heather - that is the case in all the new developments in bkln. the whole point of bkln was great spaces, and now all these apts couldn't be more cookie cutter. I mean if you're going to live in greenwood heights or some other god forsaken place, at least you should have fabulous space.

Posted by: gkw at October 7, 2008 1:18 PM

I don't think greenwood heights is godforsaken. The cemetery is right there.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 7, 2008 1:23 PM

My buddy rents from an owner in one of the Greenpoint buildings pictured above. Apparently one of them is almost completely empty!!

Posted by: SlopeBuppie at October 7, 2008 1:31 PM

If this new copy for Northside Piers doesn't make my point about Williamsburg, I don't know what does:

"It happens almost over night. Friends move to Williamsburg, they get hipper. Their tastes improve. They start talking about hot new bands. Suddenly they've got a lot of interesting thoughts on denim. The problem is, you always tell yourself, they gave up Manhattan. And more important: the Manhattan lifestyle. But all that changes with Two Northside Piers."

Posted by: 11217 at October 7, 2008 1:38 PM

"they've said there's been a rash of crime lately...the machete guy for one"

I don't think any of you need be concerned. They were looking for "Melvin."

Posted by: East New York at October 7, 2008 1:43 PM

I rented in Williamsburg for several years, and wanted to buy there since I love the neighborhood. My wife and I shopped around - looked at some of these places around McCarren Park, among others - and found that the value wasn't there - to use a cliche - these are cookie cutter, and soulless. And there's obviously a glut of them, so we figured they would not be good investments. We ended up going to Greenpoint - a nice neighborhood in its own right, fairly close to my favorite Williamsburg bars (etc), and bought a "boutique" condo that has character, the way a home in Brooklyn should. Otherwise you might as well stay in Manhattan. Which brings me to that Northside Piers copy about having the "Manhattan lifestyle" -- makes me ill. If you want the Manhattan lifestyle, then live in Manhattan.

Posted by: Paul C at October 7, 2008 1:50 PM

11217 you have such a Park Slope bias it's disgusting. I guess everyone is leaving Manhattan and anywhere else for that matter for the greener pastures of ParkSlope right? You wrote the same BS stuff yesterday about Manhattan. "I suspect that people who live in Manhattan are really getting sick of it and will eventually realize that the best place to live in the city is PARK SLOPE..". Or something to that effect.

One of the big reasons that crime is going up is that there has been such a high demand for rentals and "prime" Williamsburg is ridiculously expensive that "hipsters" are renting more and more on the fringes of Prime Williamsburg (these parts that you've dubbed "less cohesive"). They're easy targets for the locals. You also have the normal issues of encroachment/displacement that cause obvious tensions. Just last night I was driving down a desolate portion of Greenpoint by the factories and some dopey hispter chick is walking on this dark deserted street alone (at about 1130). I mean what was she thinking? I had a problem driving down the street. People just need to use their heads. Also I've read that the majority of those crimes are car break-ins (for GPS systems and whatnot). When neighborhoods start doing better there are more targets.

Also it's a gentrifying neigborhood of course it's not going to be "cohesive".

Posted by: dosteov at October 7, 2008 1:55 PM

oh my god 11217 I thought that was a joke. CANNOT believe that is actually the copy. Who is writing this publicity material? Oh I know - ding-a-ling sorority girls who live in Murray Hill. That explains it.

Posted by: gkw at October 7, 2008 1:56 PM

dosteov, the crime figures for Greenpoint itself are very low. She was probably fine.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 7, 2008 1:58 PM

Here is the rest of the copy...and no, it's not a joke...

"Two Northside Piers is the second jaw-dropping condominium tower to be built at the new Williamsburg waterfront community, Northside Piers. The first one, which began welcoming residents earlier this year, is a big and bad 180-unit structure. This one is even bigger and badder, with 30 stories and 270 homes, from studios to three-bedroom penthouses. And now it's opening things up, sales-wise...And with Williamsburg's hipness quotient rising inexorably higher, the resale value on one of these properties should be fairly easy on your pocket. Or at least that's what our friend in Williamsburg told us."

Posted by: 11217 at October 7, 2008 1:58 PM

Ditto she was probably fine you are correct but it's still not smart to do. I grew up in NYC. Maybe because I came of age during the 80s when crime was really bad. But that's something someone who grew up here with any kind of brains in their head would not do (especially female). You try to decrease your odds (within reason of course) of something happening to you in life.

Posted by: dosteov at October 7, 2008 2:02 PM

"jaw-dropping"!!

Posted by: dittoburg at October 7, 2008 2:09 PM

They should have just went with "earth-shattering" or "monumentally sublime".

They're talking about that run-of-the-mill garden-variety hi rise on Kent aren't they?

Posted by: dittoburg at October 7, 2008 2:16 PM

"And with Williamsburg's hipness quotient rising inexorably higher..."

Note to self: buy machete.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 7, 2008 3:13 PM

dosteov - I also grew up here, and moved to hell's kitchen right when the crack epidemic was taking off. I never was the victim of a crime, although guns went off on my corner every night and once a prostitute hid behind me when I was letting myself in because a pimp was chasing her. On the other hand, my father (6'4") was laid on his back at gunpoint and mugged. the truth is in my experience, women are generally safer than men on the streets of NYC as they are less often targets of muggings. of course, when they are targeted, its for something much worse. However, my main point is that when you're familiar with any neighb, you have a good sense of what is and isn't safe and this woman probably knew the street and knew she was fine.

Posted by: gkw at October 7, 2008 4:01 PM

GKW men are more often the victims of muggings then women? Do you have any stats to back that up (I'm not saying you're wrong but I just find that odd).

I just googled it out of curiosity and the only thing I could come up with was Park Slope. From the article.

"circulated via the Park Slope Parents Group that says some serial muggers seem to be hard at work in Park Slope and are targeting women."

It also mentions that crime was up 33% in January 08 in the Slope.

Posted by: dosteov at October 7, 2008 4:59 PM

Good one, SnarkSlope.

Posted by: East New York at October 7, 2008 5:02 PM

dosteov - it does seem odd and I have no stats - just anecdotal. But in my life in NYC I know virtually no females who have been mugged, whereas almost every male I know has been mugged at least once. On the other hand, I know a woman who was raped in Central Park - which kind of balances it out (in a horrible kind of way).

Posted by: gkw at October 7, 2008 5:58 PM

oh wow. do any of you live in williamsburg? how can statements be made like there's no community for families? ridiculous. there's a huge connected yahoo group - brooklynbabyhui for families. it's amazing.

i attended the recent school fair with neighbors and saw others there. families definitely stick together and the community is wonderful.

i personally chose williamsburg for several reasons. the number one being it's closeness to manhattan. it gives us the ability to get to and from manhattan quickly, and we feel that we can have the space that williamsburg affords while not feeling that we can't use the city easily because it's too far. also love walking home over the bridge after work - it's beautiful, and i enjoy it to its fullest.

also, the psf price here was better than anywhere else in gentrified brooklyn, so we got an amazing space that we simply couldn't get elsewhere.

next, mccarren park is very close and we spend a great deal of time there. it's getting better and better -100 trees planted this year and the pool is coming.

regarding the actual amenities here - they are fabulous. we really do go out and it matters to us. great shops, restaurants and galleries.

regarding the crime -it's as noted above - limited to the edges and not in prime williamsburg.

if you don't like it, fine, but from my experience a lot of people love it here, and can't think of where else they'd go. a co-worker today just bemoaned the fact that the owner of the building where he rents may move back, and he said god forbid i have to move to clinton hill or something.

this site is so down on williamsburg, but if you have the money, go low ball a couple of condos for investments and rent them out. you'll do well. the demand to live here is much higher than many of the posters are giving it credit for.

Posted by: wine lover at October 7, 2008 7:40 PM

Wine lover,

Judging from the article these comments were about and from the copy I posted today from the Northside Piers "advertisement" it would actually seem as though demand is next to nothing right now.

I've never seen a more desperate ad than the one I posted above. Never.

In contrast, the inventory in the brownstone neighborhoods seems still historically low to me.

I'll let ya know when I sell my place if I have to write..."You will be hipper and your tastes will heighten just by associating yourself with the neighborhood of Park Slope" to get the place sold, and then we can talk...

It's not about being down on Williamsburg, it's about the fact that there is and will continue to be a huge surplus of really hideous, new condos coming onto the market...many of which are going to probably sit for quite some time before they are sold, which will in turn drag prices down more than in neighborhoods with really tight inventory.

And calling McCarren a park is laughable. It's a university quad with each person trying to look more freakish than the next. I inhaled more 2nd hand smoke when I was there a couple weeks ago than I would had I spent the day inside Joan Rivers dressing room.

Posted by: 11217 at October 7, 2008 8:14 PM

I can't wait for the squatters to start moving in.

Posted by: gwitt at October 8, 2008 5:59 PM

Brooklyn will always and forever be the place that people want to live

Posted by: number 1 at October 8, 2008 9:24 PM

For one, the crime increase is in the prct that serves the southside of williamsburg, and is due to an increase of intra-gang violence amongst the hispanic gangs. The machete attack was on south 5th street, hardly prime northside, and was gang on gang violence. And it was a 31% increase of a relatively low number - Crime stats are still lower in northside and southside then Clinton Hill, Bed-Stuy, Fort Greene etc.

That said, I agree with 11217 that the excess inventory and current market conditions will be trouble for the developers and people who went into contract a while ago (if they didn't plan on staying put for a while)

I think Williamsburg is much more appealing to many people, including those who have bought new condos. I don't know of many people who have "settled" for Williamsburg because they couldn't afford Park Slope or Brownstone, Brooklyn. There isn't really much of a discount, or any (for now) for comparable housing stock.

That said, as I've mentioned before, I think brownstone brooklyn will fare better than North Brooklyn, due to the transient nature of the majority of the people in north brooklyn, which gives the area it's vibrancy.

Posted by: A Guest at October 9, 2008 5:19 PM

« An Inside Look at the Navy Yard New Look and Name for New College Restaurant »

October 7, 2008

North Brooklyn: Condo Graveyard?

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