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October 29, 2008

Housing Slump Almost Over

slumpy-1008.jpg
Okay, maybe not almost, but the Wall Street Journal writes that at least the "end is in sight." Home prices, said economists at the National Association of Home Builders' latest conference, could hit bottom by the middle of next year. "Many of the economists seemed optimistic that the government's bailout plan, which includes buying toxic mortgage debt, will lead to housing's recovery. More affordable prices, pent-up demand, incentives on new homes, fewer housing starts and expected declines in interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages also should help ease the crisis." The bounce back might be independent of a stock market recovery, since unemployment is up, housing prices could fall as much as 10 percent more, and 12 million people owe more on their homes than the homes are worth. And, for a while, supply will outweigh demand. What lessons should we learn from this mess? Among other things, "Just because someone is offering to loan you money doesn't mean you should take it."
End Is in Sight for Housing Slump [WSJ]
Photo by trance.field.




Posted by lisa at 9:01 AM | Comments (20)
Categories: Market

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Comments

OK, they came up with some good reasons as to why the slump might be over by then, but still ringing in my ears are the various experts claiming in August of this year that the worst (economy and housing price declines) was behind us.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 29, 2008 9:08 AM

Key phrase in article:

"According to economists at the semi-annual National Association of Home Builders forecast conference..."

Posted by: theandrewlee at October 29, 2008 9:12 AM

Broker listing:

19th Century Charmer; a clean palette for your renovation ideas. Vacant estate of historic significance retaining all of its original architectural detail and charm. Bring your contractor and designer. Discreet showings by appointment.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 29, 2008 9:14 AM

And for the topic that really interests us, NYC, the NYC market is moving on its own track. Last to fall, last to recover.

As the WSJ article states:

Remember that markets are cyclical; the bigger the binge, the worse the hangover. We'll have to suffer this one for months or even years to come. But if we learn not to over-indulge, we'll all wind up healthier in the long run.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 29, 2008 9:15 AM

Everyone has a crystal ball. Some work most don'T. I must admit I think prices will get more realistic with rents. But as I have written the best properties in the best neighborhoods will go down less than the less desirable. Percentage terms that is .

Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 29, 2008 9:36 AM

The New York market is not the national market. The national market has undergone a very healthy purge. The purge in New York is just beginning. New York will continue to decline while the national market is on its way back up.

Posted by: lechacal at October 29, 2008 9:41 AM

Or Dave, to quote a line from the ad for our house (in about the same shape):

"Renovation started, you finish!"

Posted by: Schultz at October 29, 2008 9:48 AM

Lethacal we agree.

Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 29, 2008 10:02 AM

"drooping with period detail"

Posted by: sam at October 29, 2008 10:18 AM

Sundrenched.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 29, 2008 10:33 AM

The more quick-witted of the brokers out there are writing these things down for future use.

I wonder if Kevin Carberry has this listing too?

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 29, 2008 10:36 AM

Is it landmarked?

Posted by: bayridgegirl at October 29, 2008 10:47 AM

New York,

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Posted by: Dora Chica at October 29, 2008 11:16 AM

Mroe suggestions for the listing:

Bring your insurance adjuster and hydraulic engineer.

Gardeners' dream, large, prairie-style organic wildflower garden.

Old world charm.

Posted by: slopefarm at October 29, 2008 11:40 AM

Oh, and don't forget: 360 views.

Posted by: slopefarm at October 29, 2008 12:05 PM

This one won't last!

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 29, 2008 12:05 PM

There is an offer.

Posted by: bayridgegirl at October 29, 2008 12:18 PM

Sam, I'm drooping with laughter. Re article, does anyone believe interest rates are going to go DOWN? This contradicts everything I have heard. But would change everything.

Posted by: mopar at October 29, 2008 12:32 PM

Schultz, I'm so sorry. Didn't think it could get much worse than what we had.

Snark, you nailed it. And how sadly true.

Posted by: slopefarm at October 29, 2008 12:35 PM

I'm with the guy with the ringing in his ear. These 'experts' aren't really worth the education they paid or owe loans for. Basically, it's going to take a revaluation of our currency to fix things.

The US will soon not be able to pay its loans to foreign governments. When the Treasury finally throws in the towel, foreigners will dump their bonds en-mass. This is supposed to happen by summer of next year.

So we're talking at the very least a 10 year depression and anyone fortunate to have a job will not be able to get loans from the one remaining bank in the land, LOL ..

As for Manhattan, the moldy oldy blue blooded aristocrats that have the old money will be the only ones left standing. An implosion of massive proportions will see them buy everything up for pennies on the Amero :)

Posted by: nes718 at October 30, 2008 12:06 AM

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