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October 16, 2008

Elliman 3Q Report: Mixed Results

Both average and median sales prices in Brooklyn ticked down overall last quarter, according to the Prudential Douglas Elliman report that dropped this morning, but the big number was the decline in the number of sales from the previous year from 3,718 to 2,298. (Inventory has also trended down.) Average price per square foot actually rose slightly year-over-year for both new developments and resales but fell just over 5 percent from the 2nd to 3rd quarters. Co-ops were a bright spot, rising in both price and number of transactions. Williamsburg and Greenpoint also put up good numbers. One- and two-family houses in Brownstone Brooklyn did pretty well too, with average and median sales prices as well as price-per-square-foot measurements all trending up. For details, check out the full report.
Brooklyn Home Prices Drop as Banks Cut Jobs and Curb Lending [Bloomberg]

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All these contracts were signed pre-crash. This quarter's sales report, which will be relased next January, will be telling.

Posted by: Suburbandude at October 16, 2008 9:28 AM

Certainly looks like the implosion of a Mutant Asshat Real Estate Bubble to me!!!!

For a good laugh check out the What's response to the post in the Forum with the fireplace Summer cover entitled "Form is Lovely..."

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 16, 2008 9:29 AM

If you had your downpayment money still invested in stocks anywhere from 2-9 months before you were planning to buy a place then you deserve what you got. If you had it in Treasuries and/or CD's where it should have been then you've made out quite well. You don't keep money in the stock market that's needed short-term.

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 16, 2008 9:33 AM

Suze Orman, is that you?

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 16, 2008 9:43 AM

As has been commented upon previously about such reports, these types of reports are not always very meaningful. As someone who has been watching the market very closely in specific neighborhoods, I'm seeing numerous price cuts that show a clear downward trend, and all of this before the current economic meltdown. The fact that NYC held up pretty well up until recently indicates IMO that it is now finally due for a correction, which is inevitable in this climate.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 16, 2008 9:45 AM

I think it's interesting to look at the full report. Specifically Northwest Brooklyn (page 4 f 4) which is comprised of the typical Brownstone Brooklyn what we focus on here.

Single family home sales prices increased significantly up 15.6% from last quarter and 31.3% from prior year Q.

It's the 2 family homes that took the hit down 21.1% from last Q and down 23.1% from year prior Q.

I guess the single family home is still pretty bulletproof.

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 10:02 AM

SnarkSlope...I bet you lust after Suze orman's pantsuits!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 16, 2008 10:05 AM

unit volume is the concern, average and median prices deceptive

Posted by: chrishavens at October 16, 2008 10:10 AM

First come lower sales than come lower prices. If you love your home than it doesn't matter. But if you are looking to sell better get it done and fast..

Posted by: HOBOKENROCKS at October 16, 2008 10:14 AM

I think the unit volume may have gone down because people were scared to sell their homes now. The people who selling in this climate are those that HAVE to. They're probably more desperate than the typical seller who may just be ready to sell the house and move to Boca. The typical homeowner is going to hold on to their homes and ride out the storm.

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 10:16 AM

I do Dave, but she told me I can't afford them. Denied! Alas.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 16, 2008 10:17 AM

I actually heard her voice as I read that. Snark are you a writer or a comic in "real" life? If not you should really consider it. You always make me laugh.

And guys...I think Suzy would be more interested in me getting into her pantsuit than Snark (who I am assuming is male).

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 10:21 AM

I swear to god the What and his bandwagoning army is so cynical, angry, bitter, etc that no matter the numbers and results of those numbers they would rather see a f@cking nuclear bomb dropped in the middle of the city just to say 'I told you so'. It is like their only outlet of 'superiority' over some 'rich property owning stroller pushing finance industry working' boogey man - their Joe the Banker.
It is sad really.

Posted by: crimson at October 16, 2008 10:25 AM

I always wondered about that too THL!! I also think SnarkSlope is more interested in getting in Larry Kudlow's or Cramer's pants from previous posts.

I myself have the hots for Carl Quintanilla!!! Muy caliente!!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 16, 2008 10:25 AM

If I were you it'd be Anderson Cooper all the way but I see the Carly Q appeal. Check out the other Hot newscasters:

http://www.asylum.com/2008/01/29/the-hottest-newscasters-readers-choice-edition-vote-for-you/

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 10:30 AM

Sorry, I posted too soon...those seem to be only female.

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 10:33 AM

I agree with THL re: SnarkSlope. He has more one-liners (and more respect) than Rodney Dangerfield. He's hilarious.

Posted by: Biff Champion at October 16, 2008 10:36 AM

Anderson's very handsome but I'm a "Bean Queen" THL!!!!

And don't call him "Carly"

But lets get back on topic. Who wants to make a prediction what these bars look like in December?? I say not more than 10% lower!!!

Posted by: daveinbedstuy at October 16, 2008 10:36 AM

I agree Dave but I do think it will ultimately depend on the home and the neighborhood just like the trend charts have shown.

Those buying in the prime areas aren't going to see big drops as many are hoping (unless they're trying for a 2 family). The "up and coming" fringe neighborhoods may not be coming up as quickly as those of us that bought in those areas might have hoped. We'll have to hold on to our homes longer than those who bought in prime to see any substantial R.O.I.

The single family homes are king and people that have the income to afford the higher mortgage payments without the help of a renter won't have a problem with financing. I'm betting those will continue to rise without problems.

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 11:04 AM

Biff / THL - Thanks for the props.

As for TV personality crushes, my heart will always belong to Max Headroom.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 16, 2008 11:10 AM

"The single family homes are king and people that have the income to afford the higher mortgage payments without the help of a renter won't have a problem with financing. I'm betting those will continue to rise without problems."

But those people will have less disposable income.. Obama looks like a shoo-in now, so if he gets the tax increases/ social security donut through congress for those earning above 250k, the very people with the incomes to buy the single family homes in prime areas are going to see a chunk of their income gone. Its difficult to see how that won't affect house prices in these areas - but I'm all ears, tell me your take.

Posted by: dittoburg at October 16, 2008 12:42 PM

dittoburg = dittohead

Posted by: FatLenny at October 16, 2008 12:49 PM

Posted by: dittoburg at October 16, 2008 12:51 PM

Sorry, no "hottest newsreader" list is complete without Melissa Theuriau...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlX6kc8Twlk

Posted by: the chicken at October 16, 2008 1:04 PM

Inventory tight mean values stay.

Posted by: sebb at October 16, 2008 1:05 PM

I'm guessing a 5% drop in Brooklyn "prime".

Posted by: dittoburg at October 16, 2008 1:11 PM

Liz Cho is the hottest

Posted by: dittoburg at October 16, 2008 1:12 PM

Dittoburg, you need to examine what defines a "chunk" for some people.

I have a few friends for whom a "chunk" isn't really heart stopping. I was at an event with one a few weeks ago and we did touch on politics and when the tax issue came up he just shrugged and said, "Ehh, what are you gonna do? Someone has to pay for this sh*t". He's not too concerned and I'm sure he's not the only one. This is NYC we have very wealthy people here. Not rich, truly wealthy. Wealthy people are not freaking out. Rich people maybe, but not the wealthy.

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 1:41 PM

I don't think anyone is freaking out, as I understand it in those with incomes 250K to 500K, Obama is leading McCain. But house prices are still detrmined by income and demand though aren't they? And as for the very wealthy - they don't buy in Brooklyn, so how do they factor in?

Posted by: dittoburg at October 16, 2008 1:46 PM

Who says they don't? You're not giving Brooklyn enough credit. There are plenty of wealthy people who find it desirable.

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 2:01 PM

OK, so a few BH and Gravesend houses go for over 8 mil....

Posted by: dittoburg at October 16, 2008 2:03 PM

Mr. B has already featured "prime" properties in Brooklyn "prime" that have taken price cuts over 10%, and this is before things really get bad, so predicting a decrease of only 5% seems optimistic (if you are a seller, that is). I think it will really depend on the property. Things in the 1-2 mil range with rental income appeal to a different buyer than the luxury properties, and I think those "mid-range" properties will take a significant hit - I could see up to 25% or more (since run-up was so high, so fast). High end ones will too, but maybe the folks at the very top will stay rich, as always.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 16, 2008 2:39 PM

Yeah, but let's say I had a brownstone legitimately worth 2.5 m in Prime PS. I now go and list it with Corcoran who says list it for 2.95 m. I as the seller say yes! of course you're the expert and I want 2.95 m. Reality is you're probably going to have to price cut it before it's going to sell for the proper price. That doesn't mean the value of the house went down. Nor does it mean the buyer got a deal on it.
It just means it wasn't valuated correctly in the first place.

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 2:47 PM

But where is Missmufett and 11217 ? LOL

Posted by: sebb at October 16, 2008 3:07 PM

THL - if I had a broker overvalue a property by that much in this market, I'd fire them. Values, as we are seeing everywhere else in the economy, are relative, and can change, and they are starting to...

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 16, 2008 3:19 PM

THL!!!!!!: If my house is really worth 1 million and I ask 20 million and I have to cut the price by $19 million to sell it, I have lost $19 million. I don't have that in my bank account??????!!!!!!! What am I going to do?????!!!!!! I own a million dollar house and I haven't sold it and now I am broke??????!!!!!!! How did this all happen????!!!!!

HELP ME THL!!!!!!!

Posted by: 11233 at October 16, 2008 3:20 PM

Really, Miss M?! You woudl fire a broker who didn't try to make the most money for you and themselves? Who would you hire?

Posted by: 11233 at October 16, 2008 3:22 PM

11233, but you would be pissed however, if you asked eg Corcoran to sell your house at the beginning of the year, they overpriced it at 2.4 mil, even though everyone could see it was time to flatten the prices, it didn't sell, you could of sold it for 2 mill and now you have to sell it for 1.7. Would you not?

Posted by: dittoburg at October 16, 2008 3:26 PM

11233 - In this market, yes, I would since I think overpricing is a bad strategy in this kind of a market since it will drive away potential buyers. It's MUCH smarter to price conservatively and hope to get some serious buyers, instead of having a pie-in-the-sky price that will result in the property lingering, needing a price cut anyway, and then suffering from the stigma of being "on the market" too long. Believe me, I've seen this happen to several properties already and they all went way under initial ask so the strategy totally backfired. Dittoburg is right.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 16, 2008 3:32 PM

The person I would hire, by the way, would be the broker who showed the best pricing strategy given market conditions (which are unquestionably deteriorating), as well as having good marketing ideas, and reach to buyers. If I'm serious about selling, I want to sell fast since one of the deadliest things in real estate is a property sitting too long.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 16, 2008 3:35 PM

Ditto: You assume it could have been sold for $2 million. You also assume no one came along and made any offers. You assume I have alsolutely no say it what offer I am willing to accept or what pricing strategy I think would work.

Last time I checked, I am the seller, not the broker. You hire the broker that you think will get you the most money.

Let me remind you, Miss M hired a broker who intentionally reduced the price of her place so that a bidding war would (and did) ensue. It was a strategy that worked. Pricing at a higher value may also have worked, but we will never know since that is not what happened.

I find it humorous that Miss M decries brokers who over price when she, by her own admission, made a killing on her place.

Miss M is a two-faced lying piece of crap.

Posted by: 11233 at October 16, 2008 3:40 PM

If the final sale price was acceptable to the seller in the first place - before the place went on the market - and they chose to overprice and "take a hit" then they didn't suffer, did they? I can certainly understand that this strategy could backfire, but so could underpricing if buyers automatically think they can low ball and a seller is already expecting to take a cut on the asking. Then you really suffer since you are not getting the price you think you deserve because you didn't build in any cushion for negotiation. That is why you call it an asking price and not a sale price until it sells.

For someone who pretends that she fell into a great sale with her last property, you really think you know something the rest of us don't, Miss M. I still think you are an idiot.

Posted by: 11233 at October 16, 2008 3:55 PM

Miss Muffett,

I'm not saying this is the best thing to do but most people are not real estate experts nor do they (unlike us) study the market as a hobby (o.k...obession). They simply call what they assume to be a reputable agent and let them help determine the value based upon their expert opinion.

Yes, agents often over value homes but, let's be realistic the average seller isn't going to know if they should be at 2.3m vs. 2.7m are they?

Posted by: TownhouseLady at October 16, 2008 3:58 PM

And 11233 seems to have anger management problems - perhaps because the market is not going his way.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 16, 2008 4:20 PM

Miss Muffet: I think you are an idiot. That is not an issue with anger management. You don't like to hear an opposing point of view and you go on and on about things you know nothing about. Your response @ 4:20 says alot about your ability to handle criticism. Stop trying to shift the responsibility to someone else.

Posted by: 11233 at October 16, 2008 5:37 PM

11233 - I apologize for the anger management comment, but as we are learning from this election, unprovoked personal attacks reveal more about the attacker than the attacked.

Why, when I have successfully bought, sold, and renovated properties, would you assume that I know nothing about this topic?

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 16, 2008 7:12 PM

the condos that all went up or in the process in the last year were affected by developers trying to get in before the 421 abatement goes away. with developers financing probably now about to tighten up and with the softening of the market less will get built.

hold on if you can because i predict that 4 years out we will see a sharp reduction in supply especially if some of the condo buildings go rental.

Posted by: wine lover at October 16, 2008 10:00 PM

Miss Muffet: You contradict yourself and write ad nauseum, clear signs that you don't know what you are talking about and you try to cover it by writing way too much. Perhaps you should deal with your insecurities in a professional setting. One that involves a couch.

As for your success ..... You have been living in a city that has experienced a steady climb in the housing market for over 15 years, with the last few being extreme. Your success was dumb luck, not a product of your real estate smarts.

Posted by: 11233 at October 17, 2008 9:54 AM

« Thursday Links Shelter Woes Spread From Crown Heights to Bed Stuy »

October 16, 2008

Elliman 3Q Report: Mixed Results

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