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October 13, 2008

Dead Cat Bounce or the Bottom?

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Meh

Posted by: dittoburg at October 13, 2008 10:19 AM

Boing...boing...splat!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 13, 2008 10:27 AM

Who knows? Folks are so jittery that another piece of nervous-making news (i.e. if Morgan Stanley deal did not go through) could send the market into another downward spiral. Even if the market has hit the bottom, it's not as if everything is suddenly all right. The shake-out from this crisis will be profound, and long-lasting.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 13, 2008 10:37 AM

Miss Muffett : The Morgan stanley deal went thru last night. I find your posts to to be behind the times.

Posted by: sebb at October 13, 2008 11:07 AM

I know I'm going to get jumped on by the usual financial pundits here, but as someone who doesn't even know what all of those strange court reporter type keyboard terminals on the stock market floor are for, let alone understand the intricate maneuvering of market forces, let me just say this - isn't this all a cyclical (albeit harsh) period of correction?

As an educated and halfway intelligent and informed person, whose only dealings with the market are in the form of my miniscule and shrinking 401K, I can see why where we are, and understand the fear, but it only makes sense that what rises must eventually fall. Instead of jumping off buildings, shouldn't we all just hunker down and do what sensible people have always advised: do with less, eliminate wasteful spending, and save up for those things we want until we can pay for them, and save for the inevitable rainy day?

This also goes for playing the market. Invest in industries that are going to grow, such as green technologies, solvent banks and financial firms with histories of caution and prudence, information tech, and industries that will be able to manufacture and build the kinds of products that we will need to wean ourselves from petro fuels, and companies that can grow in an increasing global market. I'd put my money where my mouth is, if I had any.

Long story short, it seems as this is a rather harsh, but necessary time to clean house, reform an out of control system, and get rid of the bums in office who allowed this to happen. I have nothing but compassion for those on the bottom who lose jobs in this crisis, the office workers, bank tellers, etc. I hope they can soon be employed again. Hell, I hope my business picks up, too. But I see this as a time for new beginnings and opportunities in terms of finally having a national, no - global sense of urgency to change the course of the world. Hopefully, the celebration and deification of greed has died, or at least has been seriously wounded in this whole affair. I can't wait for us to be respected in the world again. Obama/Biden in less than a month.

Posted by: Montrose Morris at October 13, 2008 11:20 AM

Sebb, I know the Morgan deal is all but certain but my point was to use that TYPE of news as an example of what could still affect markets. I know we disagree profoundly on the market, but please don't twist my words to support your viewpoint.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 13, 2008 11:24 AM

Miss Muffett: I don't want to twist anything believe me. Maybe you should read this:
Like Old Times (Almost)
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By JOSH BARBANEL
Published: October 10, 2008
AT a time when you might think the entire Manhattan real estate market had jumped off the Brooklyn Bridge, some buyers and sellers have been engaging in that old-fashioned Manhattan pastime: the bidding war.

Though some brokers say the market remains in a pause while buyers assess the faltering economy, others have been able to close deals in every segment of the market, and even on days when the stock market has been plummeting. After all, people have to live somewhere, don’t they?

On Sept. 29, the day the House of Representatives first took up and rejected a $700 billion economic rescue plan, Randolph D. Lerner, the owner of the Cleveland Browns of the National League Football League, closed on a 1,730-square-foot two-bedroom Greenwich Village co-op at 15 West 11th Street for $4.06 million, according to city property records. That was $100,000 over the asking price, enough for Mr. Lerner to clinch the deal over an art dealer with a competing bid, according to Jan Hashey, a broker at Prudential Douglas Elliman.

The seller was Jason Mutchnick, the television producer who created “Will & Grace.” According to Streeteasy.com, that apartment went into contract in August.

Also on Sept. 29, as the stock market fell by more than 770 points, Sarah Parsons, a broker with the Corcoran Group, waited anxiously, not for the stock ticker, but for a buyer to meet with his lawyer that afternoon and sign a contract for a one-bedroom in a 20-foot-wide brownstone in Park Slope.

The sellers, Kara R. Finck, a lawyer providing legal services to the poor, and her husband, Mark Humowiecki, a special counsel to the Workers’ Compensation Board, had put their 800-square-foot apartment on the market after Labor Day for $535,000, because they needed a larger apartment after the birth of a child.

The apartment, at 55 Montgomery Place, was priced right and had some special features that helped it sell quickly, Ms. Parsons said, including a private rear garden on a quiet town house street, a few doors from Prospect Park.

After two open houses, she said, there were three bids, including two over the asking price. But Ms. Parsons said that “in this environment,” the sellers chose the offer at the asking price, because the buyer, an Internet sports journalist, offered to pay cash (with some help from his family).

“If you have two or three things that are fantastic and unusual, even in this horrible market, there are some things that can sell quickly,” Ms. Parsons said. After the buyer signed, Ms. Finck and her husband made an offer for a larger apartment on the same block; their bid was accepted.

On Tuesday, when the stock market fell more than 500 points, a third-floor walk-up in a town house at 348 East 89th Street went into contract for just over the $499,900 asking price, according to Brian Lewis, a broker at Halstead Property. Mr. Lewis said that the condo needed renovation, and that the seller had agreed to “price it provocatively.”

There were 28 buyers at the first open house and almost as many at a second one, he said, and soon afterward there were two “bona fide offers,” both over the asking price, one from an investor and the other from a person who planned to renovate and live there.

Mr. Lewis said that the seller wanted to choose a buyer based on financial strength and ability to close, rather than price. In the end, the seller chose the individual buyer, after Mr. Lewis was allowed to interview the man’s mortgage broker.

“He is a professional, not in the financial field, with good job longevity,” he said.

Quick deals are not limited to lower-priced properties. A duplex penthouse at 1185 Park Avenue went on the market in mid-September, after the fall of Lehman Brothers, with an asking price of $20 million. It had been the home of Kitty Carlisle Hart, the entertainer and grande dame, who died in April, and Moss Hart, the Broadway playwright.

Brokers said that by the middle of last week, the internal listing at Brown Harris Stevens, which was held by Katherine P. Marshall, showed an “accepted offer” on the property, though a contract had not yet been signed.

“I am getting bids all day long,” said Paula Del Nunzio, a Brown Harris Stevens broker.


Posted by: sebb at October 13, 2008 11:31 AM

Fools rally at this point - Treasury plan is all over the place, no one knows exactly what will be and unintended consequences not even being contemplated (sort of like how Freddie and Fannie were forced into receivership by dumb treasury plan).

Market is rallying because now the whole world is looking to reinflate banks/markets - but the devil is ultimately in the details - of which no one has a clue. Expect uncertainty to creep back in and wipe away most gains at this point.

Posted by: fsrg at October 13, 2008 11:34 AM

Miss Muffett your right in your concern over the Morgan deal. It almost didn't go through last night- they had to give the Japanese, Warren Buffet type rates to make this thing happen.

Posted by: 7andfive at October 13, 2008 11:35 AM

Sebb- I don't understand your post. It just seems that some buyers with prime real estate priced their places accordingly/below market. But let's talk when these places actually close. It was smart for the one couple to choose the cash offer.

Posted by: 7andfive at October 13, 2008 11:38 AM

Sebb - you really do seem to be grasping at straws. Even in a great market, a few properties may have problems selling too. The exception does not prove the rule.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 13, 2008 11:54 AM

I hope you're right MM. I'd like to be an optimist. Perhaps we'll bounce back in a year or so, and this will be deemed a normal purge. But I don't think it will be the end of greed.

Greed may be temporarily stifled, but it will worm/gnaw it's way back into the system given time, creativity and well, greed. The creeps won't quit, they'll just find another loop hole and dream up some new and ridiculous 'offering' to sell.

[signed, yours in pinching the pennies]

Posted by: cobblehiller at October 13, 2008 12:07 PM

Miss Muffett: Let's get things straight. You are a little bitter. You want prices to drop. Understandable. But you do not want to admit the truth which is, They will not, have not and wont go down more than 10 to 15% overall. Whenever I point this out you refuse to understand it.

Posted by: sebb at October 13, 2008 12:11 PM

I show you homes going for more than asking you refuse to believe it.

Posted by: sebb at October 13, 2008 12:11 PM

Sebb for every home you show going above asking (I challenge you to show some that have actually closed in the last 30 days). I can show you ten that have had dramatic price cuts and that are still sitting on the market. Brownstoner has a few up today.

Posted by: 7andfive at October 13, 2008 12:19 PM

sebb you are in a fantasy - prices have already dropped over 10% and the true effect of the market chaos hasnt even begun to be felt.

NYC is essentially a 2 industry town - Wall St and Media - and one of those industries has been decimated -

the idea that nyc RE will only be minimally effected is naive to say the least.

Posted by: fsrg at October 13, 2008 12:23 PM

Sebb - I'm not the slightest bit bitter. I am poised to buy when I think the moment is right, and am fortunate to be in a position to do so without needing to sell. Why on earth would I be bitter? I don't deny that some properties may hold up better than others, and I also don't pretend that I am some kind of oracle that can know exactly what will happen - nor are you. But history, and many experts, seem to be on my side in terms of predictions, whereas your predictions seem to be based on a rather unrealistic optimism. Why don't we just agree to disagree and keep on posting as we wish, without it turning into personal attacks?

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 13, 2008 12:33 PM

s o m e b o d y
e v i d e n t l y
b e l i e v e s
b * l l s h * t

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 13, 2008 12:34 PM

fsrg : Maybe you guys missed these? or maybe you are taking to much Vicodin . SOUTH SLOPE $850,000
497 12th Street
Prewar two-bedroom, 1½-bath duplex, 1,055 square feet, with 300-square-foot outdoor space, tin ceilings, new kitchen with dishwasher and renovated bath with claw-foot tub. Common charges $340, taxes $183. Asking price $819,000, on market three months. Brokers: Kristina Leonetti and Jessica Buchman, The Corcoran Group

Despite the meltdown on Wall Street, inventory decreased in Brooklyn last week and prices went up. According to home listing Web site Trulia.com, the average listing price for a Brooklyn home rose 1.4 percent to $701,779, from $691,857, between September 24 and October 1. Listings decreased during that time to 4,625 from 4,725.


Posted by: sebb at October 13, 2008 12:59 PM

Sebb - why on earth are you rehashing a thread we already discussed? Again, let's see what time will tell. You need to look forwards, not backwards.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 13, 2008 1:03 PM

s h a l l
e a t
b a d
b u y

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at October 13, 2008 1:27 PM

Miss Muffett: I must bring these posts up because when they show up none of the nay sayers come on to discuss.

Posted by: sebb at October 13, 2008 1:57 PM

Sebb - that's not true, plenty of naysayers discussed the thread about this one Park Slope apt that went over ask (and probably went into contract several months ago, prior to the crisis). I think it's a waste of of breath (or typing) to try to change your viewpoint, since you seem chronically over-optimistic. I just hope you aren't making bad decisions based on your optimism - if you are, you will likely suffer.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 13, 2008 2:37 PM

sebb,

as someone firmly planted in the under 300k range i gotta say prices have dropped.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/286940-25-plaza-street-west-park-slope-brooklyn

i wouldnt have even been close to affording this place a couple months ago.

Posted by: Santa at October 13, 2008 2:38 PM

NINE HUNDRED THIRTY SIX POINTS.
936.
BOYAAAAA!

No not nearly a recovery. But not the Armageddon these assclowns have been wallowing in schaudenfraude over.

You know who you are.

As I stated on Thursday or Friday last week:
"my oh my, looks like the chickenlittles have come home to roost, catch you on the other side."

While cellar dwellers were poo pooing in their pants and stroking their monkeys over fear and loathing, some were busy buying Morgan Stanley and other battered beyond recognition financials.
Thanks for doubling my investment in 2 days.

That's all folks.

Posted by: Legion at October 13, 2008 5:56 PM

Congrats, Legion. Now you have TWO nickels to rub together.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 13, 2008 6:33 PM

"Ha ha ha, tee hee hee, ha ha ha,"
He said as he sipped his Chateau Mouton Rothschild and slowly took a draft from his Cohiba gordo.
Rolled on the hips of virgins, was his last thought as he slipped into an early evening nap.

Posted by: Legion at October 13, 2008 7:14 PM

"Legion apparently rolls his own," he replied, as he sipped his seltzer and took an extra crunchy chip from the bag of Lay's Kettle Cooked.

"0 grams of trans fat" was his last thought as he slipped away from the computer.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at October 13, 2008 9:09 PM

Legion - I'm glad you made money today, but that does not change the fact that historically, more pain has followed the kind of market activity we've seen last week. It's not like today's rally, or even tomorrow's, magically makes everything better - this hangover was too long in the making. I too am glad the bottom is not continuing to drop out for now, but I hardly think it's cause for the kind of gloating you seem to thoroughly enjoy - that kind of reaction is a little premature, to say the least.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 13, 2008 9:14 PM

P.S. Legion - it's "schadenfreude".

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 13, 2008 9:16 PM

educate yourself by studying late 2002 through early 2003 charts

Posted by: BrooklynLove at October 13, 2008 9:38 PM

BrooklynLove - can you give some more explanation please?

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 13, 2008 9:47 PM

yawwwwwnnnnn,

Ok back from my nap. I see somebody looked up that word, shaggindefrau or sigmundfreud or whatever. At least I have you thinking, which is more than I can say for most others.

I should tell you, however, Miss Muffett, that spell checking is the internet chat equivalent of sending back food in a restaurant. First, nobody else really wants to hear it. Second, contrary to the complainer's belief; it doesn't make them seem smarter or more cultured only picky and annoying. And finally, it only gives the kitchen staff the opportunity to dip the food in a vat of last week's fat runoff.

That being said, I'm not exactly gloating, only giving back some of the hyperbole that was rampant on Friday and curiously absent today.

Posted by: Legion at October 13, 2008 10:49 PM

sure. djia bottom in last down cycle was 7500 in oct 2002 ... and then almost again when revisited at 7750 in march 2003 ... then off to the races. and note that there was a huge bounce off of 8200 in sep 2001 before even getting to the real bottom in late 2002. you'll find similar charts in other downturns - fake biggie bottom, then real biggie bottom, then retest it. remember, there is no such thing as a tripple bottom or tripple top. point here is that it's a decent bet we'll test 8000 again and quite possibly go through it on our way to the real bottom.

Posted by: BrooklynLove at October 14, 2008 7:09 PM

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