Another Third Quarter Market Report

Sebb - I'm fine reading this report and it's actually no surprise to me - as I've said repeatedly, priced indeed have remained very high up until very recently. Also I'm not "waiting" for the market to bottom. Even as things have, up until recently, held up well, there are increasingly deals to be had (as wasder found). So, if we find a place we love at a good price (which seems likely) we'll buy. But, I challenge you to find evidence in the *next* 6 months that prices are not starting to decline. Certainly they will not go up, and as Mr. B's own listings have amply demonstrated, there are plenty of price cuts that have started - which is a major reversal from the direction of the market up until very recently. All indications point to continued softening - at long last - of the NYC market - looking FORWARDS, not backwards (unless you want to look really far back at the history of other NYC RE downturns.)

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 17, 2008 9:17 AM

One other point Sebb - even this Corcoran report notes that the market is shifting, and there are plenty of negative numbers in there showing declines are starting. RE market reversals happen slowly so it's to be expected that after a period of unprecedented strength and price increases, the beginning of the market turn would show mixed results, precisely as this Corcoran report does. Also, there have been plenty of other reports/articles showing evidence of overall price decreases, such as one of Mr. B's links today: "Basement Prices for Boro Homes". But really, I feel just fine about this, and very patient, since I truly think well-qualified buyers are in a great position now if they are patient. I've noticed an increasingly angry, bitter tone to the market bulls recently, which I think indicates a level of frustration with the market (I don't know why else there would be such unnecessary mud-slinging...).

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 17, 2008 9:25 AM

Sebb, as I've stated repeatedly, I've been on the "sidelines" only a few months, since I sold this past spring. I know for a fact that the price of my property would not have gone up since that time (and in fact, may have gone down), and several of the properties I later looked at and considered buying subsequently had big price cuts. If I had listened to you and bought them immediately, I would have paid much more than they wound up selling for. Hence, I am actually saving myself a lot of money by waiting while the market re-adjusts to the new reality (which you seem unable to accept).

You are putting words in my mouth since I never said to others not to buy, the sky is falling etc. On the contrary, I've pointed out that buyers in for long haul (like us) could probably buy at any time since eventually the market will recover so if you find a place you love that you want to stay in for a very long time, and that you can afford, it's probably fine to buy. BUT, I also see that prices are still very high, but are at last declining, and well-qualified buyers who wait, (or who offer lower prices and/or hold out til sellers adjust expectations) will be rewarded. Why on earth would I want to pay, say 1.8mil on a house when I've seen that seen that same house get cut to 1.6 in a matter of months? By waiting, I save well beyond the cost of rent, tax breaks, amortization reduction and everything else on your list. And no, I don't think the sky is necessarily falling, but the market IS clearly turning. It may take a while, and no one - not you, not I - can know for sure the extent of the reversal, but there is undoubtedly a reversal going on. If people want to pay today's high prices, that's their perogative and I'm certainly not telling anyone not to do so. But I am certain that I will save a lot of money if I am patient.

As for becoming a part of a neighborhood, why can't renters become part of a neighborhood? I'm actually renting in the same hood that I was previously owning in, and I'm just as involved as I was before in school, volunteer projects, etc. It's not as if my personality suddenly changes when I switch from renting to owning. I think that comment is just silly.

I am not a novice at real estate - I've been in it for a while as both buyer, seller and renovator. You, and others, are free to ignore my analysis. But I stand by it.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 17, 2008 10:52 AM

And by the way, I think some sellers are pricing conservatively now, and I think they are smart. Again, if I loved a property, and the price were affordable to me and made sense relative to comps (which these days means, a bit below recent comps to reflect change in market), and I thought I could stay for a while, I really do think it would be fine to buy. It just depends on how patient you are, what your current situtian is, what the property you're considering is, etc. Everyone's situation is different, and everyone can make their own decisions.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 17, 2008 11:08 AM