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September 5, 2008
Real Estate Market Will Be Fine by 2011
That's what the National Real Estate Investor magazine says, anyway. Well, not fine, exactly, but they predict that another couple of years of "stagnant job creation and tepid economic growth" will yield better results come 2011. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan — one of the economists they consult — "is projecting real gross domestic product growth at a rate of 1.4% in 2008, decelerating to 0.5% in 2009 before beginning an anemic recovery to growth of 2.2% by 2010," they write. Banks will rebound, they say, and oil prices will drop, and maybe inflation will fall, and, after the rough patch, the world of real estate will recover. Even if that scenario plays out, here's the big question: Since the New York City market took longer to fall, does that mean it'll also lag on the way back up?
Economists Expect Real Estate Recovery in 2011 [NREI]
Sign of the Times. Photo by respres.
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Comments
Pretty safe prediction - the cycle will bottom and recover.
Posted by: jawbreaker at September 5, 2008 9:52 AM
where's The What?
Posted by: itsagas at September 5, 2008 9:55 AM
There are two possibilities:
(1) New York will have a sharper and faster correction than the rest of the country (we're not slow like they are in the South) and will recover at about the same time.
(2) New York will do everthing the rest of the country has done, just a couple of years later (sort of like the opposite of a fashion trend).
I ascribe to the former theory. We are just cresting right now. I still don't see real fear in sellers' eyes, which means we have quite a ways to go before we hit a bottom.
There is an almost foolproof way to test a market bottom. Go to a cocktail party and loudly announce that New York real estate is a great investment. As soon as everyone looks at you like you are stupid, you know you are at or near the bottom and it's time to buy.
There are mediocre 2 bedroom apartments (claiming to be 3 beds) on the market in the Slope for over a million dollars. We have a long ways to go.
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 10:13 AM
Time will tell, of course. My guess has been that 2010 will be the bottom for NYC (and my second guess is Dumbo gets hit real hard at some point).
But the most important factors will, as always, be Wall Street jobs and quality of life.
If Wall Street isn't hiring and/or random street crime goes up, prices will keep going down in all but the best neighborhoods until that changes.
Also neighborhoods that appeal to families will probably be more stable. That is, a bunch of single people in their 20s and 30s will be quicker to bail out on a neighborhood than people who have decided to raise their children there.
Just my 2 cents.
Posted by: northsloperenter at September 5, 2008 10:16 AM
Something else to note: The real estate markets being "fine" in 2011 just means that prices will have stabilized and will have returned to a normal and boring rate of appreciation. It does NOT mean that someone who just bought a crappy lower duplex brownstone condo conversion for $1.2 million will be able to sell for anything near the price they paid. The amount of time it takes for prices to reach their current peak levels again will be much longer.
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 10:24 AM
What do you ascribe to the former theory?
;-)
Posted by: dittoburg at September 5, 2008 10:30 AM
One thing everyone must realize is that there are no jobs in the United states except for NYC and parts of Cali. If anyplace will hold the value it is NYC and San Fran.
Posted by: sebb at September 5, 2008 11:03 AM
dittoburg: My choice between the two is mostly based on gut. That there *will* be a correction is based on quite a lot more than that, but the speed of the correction is much harder to predict.
sebb: To the extent employment figures affect real estate prices, it is the *change* that matters, not absolute employment numbers, and the current trend in NYC is decidedly negative (particularly in industries that produce buyers rather than renters).
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 11:21 AM
Lechacal, I was pulling your leg. The phrase is subscribe to the theory, not ascribe.
Posted by: dittoburg at September 5, 2008 11:46 AM
"Go to a cocktail party and loudly announce that New York real estate is a great investment."
If this is the test I would say we were there in November last year.
Trying to catch a bottom or a top is hard even in fast moving liquid markets.
If you are waiting to buy, don’t be surprised if you;
1. (a) wait (b) give up waiting (c) buy and (d) watch the market go down.
2. (a) wait (b) don't give up waiting (c) don't buy (d) watch the market go up.
The same applies if you are waiting to sell. It’s a market, it wont turn at a time that is convenient to you. I don’t think anyone is capable of predicting what is going to happen in NY with any certainty. I personally think it is clear that prices won’t be rising in the next year or so but whether they stabilize here, drop fast, drop slow and to what extent is completely up in the air.
Posted by: Aussie at September 5, 2008 11:47 AM
The best prediction of a bottom or top is when the NY S&P Case-Shiller Index approaches zero on a year-over-year basis. You won't hit it exactly but will be close enough.
The data is available on the S&P site. If you add columns for change from peak/trough and YOY, you'll see that this was the case for both the last bottom and the last top.
"2. (a) wait (b) don't give up waiting (c) don't buy (d) watch the market go up."
Very unlikely scenario. History will tell you that RE changes very quickly at the top but very slowly at the bottom. There's more of a rush to sell than to buy.
Good luck everyone!
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 5, 2008 12:01 PM
I find it extremely unlikely that NYC will somehow lag behind the rest of the country. I think 2011 is probably a pretty good guess for a turnaround.
I highly recommend the blog Calculated Risk for mortgage-related news. I haven't seen anything as good. In particular this article about the peak in rate resets for Alt-A (between prime and sub-prime)loans :
http://tinyurl.com/5l2wll
So you're likely to see another foreclosure spike at the beginning of 2010 which will further weigh on home equity, consumer confidence, credit markets, etc. As noted in the article, this will affect banks more than investment banks. Hopefully, the IB's will get back on track in 2010. 2009 is going to suck for all markets (stock, credit, mortgage).
Posted by: FatLenny at September 5, 2008 12:26 PM
Good Friday Asshats. I know this post was for me, Ok let's go!
Remember I said after the Olympics China was going to start dumping US debt on the market? Well Lookie here...
Main Bank of China Is in Need of Capital
http://tinyurl.com/6oac82
"Those investments have been declining sharply in value when converted from dollars into the strong yuan, casting a spotlight on the central bank’s tiny capital base. The bank’s capital, just $3.2 billion, has not grown during the buying spree, despite private warnings from the International Monetary Fund."
Due to China, Japan and OPEC States buying huge amounts of US debt this has distorted interest rates and cause inflation to spike.
I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. We are in the greatest asset bubble know to mankind and when it blows it will be devastating....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
I know you STILL want everything to be alright but, the clock is ticking.
Posted by: what at September 5, 2008 12:31 PM
DOW: When you say approaches 0 on a year over year basis; do you mean that the average monthly reading over a 12 month period (which is currently declining) shows no change?
The index was @ 74.41 back in 1987 and will never reach zero so I assume you are talking about yearly average change. Is that correct?
Posted by: Aussie at September 5, 2008 12:34 PM
I think Aussie's point is very well taken. If you do have the time and flexibility to wait I am sure that is to your benefit right now. But it is not an automatic thing that you will wait and then find the property of your dreams for a great price. Many people, myself included, have personal circumstances that make waiting too long very difficult. Hence my decision to buy now. People who wait and put themselves in difficult living circumstances might get what they want at a better price in a year or two, but they might not and then they will have spent a couple of years with their lives on hold for nothing.
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 12:35 PM
DOWhat--both of your personalities are playing so nicely with others today. Well done.
Read that article about the Chinese Central Bank. It certainly seems that if they did decide to dump all of their US bonds and securities it would screw us over big time. But I was struck by this line in the article:
"Chinese officials have suggested in recent comments that they are increasingly interested in stopping the yuan’s rise, and thus are willing to continue buying foreign securities to support the dollar."
What say you DOWhat?
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 12:46 PM
Here is another factor Jobs and the Economy.
U.S. Economy: Payrolls Drop, Unemployment at 6.1%
"Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in August and the unemployment rate climbed to a five- year high of 6.1 percent, a sign that the economic slowdown is worsening two months before Americans elect their next president."
5 years ago, That was the start of the Mutant Real Estate Bubble! Now pay attention Boys and Girls. Housing prices will go back to levels of 5 years ago. That means all of you equity gets wiped out. When the Asshats find out that their house is worth less that hey paid for it, they will "walk away". It's happen now in California and Nevada 2 of the largest "subprime" spots in the US and it's coming this way.
``It certainly increases the probability that we really are in a recession,'' William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``It is a weak number, including the revisions.''
The Unemployment numbers are getting bad and those tenants you depend on to help with the mortgage will find themselves in a bad spot. Pay my rent of feed my kids...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end....
Posted by: what at September 5, 2008 12:47 PM
I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011. I would like some one to please explain why Real Estate prices will rebound in 2011.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at September 5, 2008 12:54 PM
I think US & European economies are in for long and slow deflationary period something akin to the Japanese since '89 real estate bust. Inflation has been the global story for the past several years but deflation- assets, dollars, & commodities, will be hallmark for the next decade plus to come. There aren't enough credits in the world to sustain the American & European lifestyles and thus global markets & prices have to adjust to decreased demands.
Posted by: newbie12222 at September 5, 2008 12:55 PM
If housing prices went back to the levels of 5 years ago I think most of us would shrug and go on with our lives. NYC is not some bedroom community of a midlevel city that you ditch when hard times come. NYC is a place where people hunker in for the long haul, where established neighborhoods provide roots and social networks and infrastructure that is extra-governmental. Prices of 5 years ago would not be a disaster for anyone except those who were looking to real estate for a quick buck. Don't know how many people here that includes but I don't think that is too many of us.
Prices going down to 5 years ago is also not a total collapse of our banking system I might add, as you are calling for on October 16th DOWhat.
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 12:56 PM
"I think US & European economies are in for long and slow deflationary period something akin to the Japanese since '89 real estate bust"
Aw nope! Remember Japan had SAVING when their MAB popped. The US saving rate is terrible. The Asshats are living paycheck to paycheck and with the employment numbers coning out , we are in for bad times.
"If housing prices went back to the levels of 5 years ago I think most of us would shrug and go on with our lives. "
This is why the bust will have devastating effects! Lets say in 03 you could buy a Brownstone in Asshats Hill for 550k. Now in 07 that same house is worth 1.3 million. You go like a asshole and "refi" because you want to open up a Thai restaurant in the Ghetto because you read the Hype-Fuck of Brownstoner and beLIEve that the Asshats are coming your way. Now the whole thing goes BOOM! You have 1. a underwater house 2. a failed business 3. you are in denial about you situation. You decide it's time to back to Kanas, Ohio, Iowa or whatever fucking farm hell hole you come from. Now you walk away and the lender takes back your "investment". Now that house is abandoned and Pookie and his Homeboys opens up a pharmacy and you know where it goes from here.
This is why I want you stupid mother fuckers to take that bet! Buy a Brownstone and see housing will rebound in 2011...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 5, 2008 1:14 PM
I have already taken the bet. Being a Brooklyn native I have no farm hell hole to return to so I will stick it out thanks. I think you are massively underestimating the determination of people to build neighborhoods and communities. Like so much of your analysis, there is a layer of "truth" (the economy sucks, the housing market sucks) with numerous layers of hyperventilating exaggeration.
What about the Chinese not wanting to dump US debt by the way?
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 1:21 PM
And for the record you could not buy a brownstone in Asshats Hill for 550 in 2003.
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 1:22 PM
wasder - right on!
Posted by: troll at September 5, 2008 1:23 PM
Housing prices in Clinton Hill will rebound when the twhat fianlly accepts that he has been permanently priced out and his crappy credit will never ever allow him to buy anything. He will then be forced to move. Quality of life will improve dramatically and the rebound will begin.
So, twhat, when are you moving?
Posted by: 11233 at September 5, 2008 1:31 PM
I think you made the right choice Wasder. A person has to live somewhere. So the choice is rent or buy. I like to personalize where I live by doing real improvements so it doesn't make sense to rent. I bought my first property 20 years ago and I have owned and lived in 4 homes since. If you ultimately intending owning a home it is important to get onto the property ladder. I couldn't tell you whether I bought in an up or a down market most of the time. All I know is I sold into the same market I bought into.
Posted by: Aussie at September 5, 2008 1:37 PM
wasder, here is the deal......
Twhat didn't buy in clinton hill when they were giving houses away. He thought it was a ghetto. And why would anyone buy in a ghetto?
Then new people came in, made improvements and housing prices rose to a level the twhat could not beleive or afford.
He feels like a fool for not buying when prices were much lower and cashing in on the run-up. Even worse, the socio-economic make up of the new residents made him feel inferior. (That's his interpretation, not that of the new residents - who really don't pay much attention to twhat as they have lives to live.)
Instead of accepting that an opportunity has passed and that he has self-worth issues, he comes on this site and tries to talk down the market and blame class/race warfare for all of his troubles.
Interesting approach, but it really doesn't hold water.
Posted by: 11233 at September 5, 2008 1:40 PM
Aussie: Pointing to the impossibility of timing the market as a reason to buy is an old argument, and in my view a terrible one. I can say with great confidence that (1) the market has peaked and (2) it will go down a good ways before hitting the bottom.
It may be impossible to time a bottom, but it is easy to identify a bubble. Why do people buy into bubbles anyways? I don't know. Ask someone who has bought in Park Slope in the past year. I'm sure they all have some reason for doing so.
Prices are going down and will continue to do so for a while. At some point the direction of prices will become uncertain, and at that point your argument will become a good one. We are not there yet. Not by a long shot.
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 1:41 PM
"DOW: When you say approaches 0 on a year over year basis; do you mean that the average monthly reading over a 12 month period (which is currently declining) shows no change?"
Exaaaaaactly. YOY = year-over-year = change from last year.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 5, 2008 1:42 PM
A note to Wasder: I didn't mean to suggest that you should be judged for buying in the past year. Apologies if my post came off that way. If you are truly in it for the long haul (which is actually quite rare), then you will most likely do just fine. It sounds like you don't suffer any misconceptions about your prospects for seeing price appreciation anytime soon.
Someone who is a natural 3-5 year buyer and jumped in this year with an expectation to sell at a profit, on the other hand, is an idiot.
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 1:46 PM
"I think US & European economies are in for long and slow deflationary period something akin to the Japanese since '89 real estate bust."
QOTD
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 5, 2008 1:48 PM
How is it "actually quite rare" to be in it for the long haul when buying a brownstone, Lechecal? Where do you get that? People live entire lifetimes in brownstones in NYC. Our elderly neighbors have. A lot of the newer homeowners in our neighborhood have owned their houses at least 10 years already and plan to stay. Do you even know people who own brownstones?
Posted by: traditionalmod at September 5, 2008 2:02 PM
"Housing prices in Clinton Hill will rebound when the twhat fianlly accepts that he has been permanently priced out and his crappy credit will never ever allow him to buy anything. He will then be forced to move. Quality of life will improve dramatically and the rebound will begin."
LMMFAO! You are a fucking idiot! you are living in the middle of a Ghetto!
"I think you made the right choice Wasder. A person has to live somewhere. So the choice is rent or buy. I like to personalize where I live by doing real improvements so it doesn't make sense to rent."
Here Wasder let me jerk you off. I see you hands are burned off by the imploding Mutant Asset Bubble.
"Instead of accepting that an opportunity has passed and that he has self-worth issues, he comes on this site and tries to talk down the market and blame class/race warfare for all of his troubles."
I had a conversion with a good old friend of mind last night. He told me that 30% of Americans can't pick the US on a Map and 30% of Americans don't know who the Secretary of State is (Who should be the VP pick). Guess what Assholes? These retards VOTE. I not surprised anymore by the reactions I get here. You Assfucks know deep down this thing is over but the denial is very thick. That why WASDER always reacts to my posts. Remember If what I'm saying is wrong then ignore it. Ignore me and don't reply. DOW800 told you the same thing but you still react to his posts also. WADER I don't give a fuck about you or the the rest of the Assfucks on Brownstoner because I know the implosion is right around the corner.
""I think US & European economies are in for long and slow deflationary period something akin to the Japanese since '89 real estate bust.""
I don't think so DOW. I think our bust will be very violent.. Because of Greed and Denial....
The What (Tick...... Tick....... Tick......)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 5, 2008 2:12 PM
"Prices going down to 5 years ago is also not a total collapse of our banking system I might add, as you are calling for on October 16th DOWhat."
I don't know, underwasder (you're still combining me with The What so that was deserved). According to NYC S&P Case-Killer, that would be a -30% decline, well within the -25% to -50% I have predicted. But I think my lower limit of -50% is reasonable because this bubble was just an extension of our bubble economy. It was preceded by the Dot Com bubble that we never really "paid" for, macro-economically. Less Americans owned securities then than homes in 2007. The housing bubble saved us from a recession. So the excess beyond the intrinsic starts the beginning of the Dot Com era. I believe we're going back further than 5 years.
Economic booms from other sectors usually drive the housing sector. This time, it was the housing sector itself (with the help of easy credit) that drove all other sectors. Don't sleep on the overshoot factor. The market overshot on the way up and will likely do so on the way down.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 5, 2008 2:12 PM
"...starts [from] the beginning..."
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 5, 2008 2:16 PM
Was your conversion from foul-mouthed ignoramus to bitter looney?
Posted by: dittoburg at September 5, 2008 2:19 PM
Traditionalmod: I would guess that the average buyer of a full brownstone is in it for the long haul, but most housing units in Broolyn are not brownstones. There are a lot of new condo conversions, new condo projects, existing coops and condos, etc., and a lot of the buyers for those places will move within 5 years (or will want to - whether they get stuck because of the market is a different story). For people in my profession, moving to another city or country every couple of years is quite common (I have already done it a couple of times). For upwardly mobiile young families, the first home usually starts feeling small as soon as the family paycheck can buy a bigger place.
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 2:20 PM
Who cares if the housing market rebounds in 2011. The world is going to end in 2012.
Posted by: Polemicist at September 5, 2008 2:37 PM
DOW; "Exaaaaaactly. YOY = year-over-year = change from last year."
I agree this is a good test DOW. I assume you suggest applying it on a calendar year basis as apposed to a running 12 monthly basis. For investors or those wanting to buy their first house (and not get hammered by a decline as they enter the market for the first time) this really does make a huge amount of sense. I would be less conservative and apply a running test.
Lechacal: For people simply upgrading an existing home why would you would sell your home and rent and then buy. Buying a "home" is not a trade. Surely the buyers out there are people buying into the same market they selling into and not really caring what happens to prices. Whether you are doing this or buying to live in for life that is the "long haul".
Posted by: Aussie at September 5, 2008 2:45 PM
Aussie, that is a very good point. People who aleady own are indeed in a very different position from those who are renting and deciding on when to buy. For people in the former position, when they buy and sell should generally be a wash (as long as they roll the proceeds right into the next place). For people in the latter position, the entry point is hugely important.
That being said, I do actually know (or know of) a few people who have sold in the past year and are renting -- myself included. I cashed out in November 2007. I am putting my money where my mouth is. I estimate that I have already saved about $20,000 after-tax dollars that I otherwise would have spent on mortgage payments for an equivalent apartment, and I am about to save a whole lot more than that in losses that don't book because I didn't buy.
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 2:54 PM
"Aussie: Pointing to the impossibility of timing the market as a reason to buy is an old argument, and in my view a terrible one."
We agree. I don't think I said what you say I did.
You, I would say, are a trader ...or you should be. Can you see a time when it will not be worth it to you to sell a home and wait for the market to drop? A time when you live in your "home" with your family, and trade something else?
Posted by: Aussie at September 5, 2008 3:09 PM
"You go like a asshole and "refi" because you want to open up a Thai restaurant in the Ghetto because you read the Hype-Fuck of Brownstoner and beLIEve that the Asshats are coming your way."
HA! He KILLS me!
Posted by: East New York at September 5, 2008 3:15 PM
I'm not sure I quite follow what you are saying, particularly in your last sentence.
By way of full disclosure, I didn't sell my home just because I thought the market would drop. I sold because I was moving from the suburbs back to the Slope, and then made the decision to not roll my equity back into buying. It would be different if I sold and moved a block away to rent. I don't advocate speculative selling for happy homeowners who don't otherwise have a reason to sell, but for someone who otherwise has some sort of life event where they can decide whether to become a renter or a buyer, I would strongly recommend the former.
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 3:15 PM
"Who cares if the housing market rebounds in 2011. The world is going to end in 2012." - DOWhat.
DOWhat, are you now hedging your bets. Let's remind everyone that DOWhat predicted October 16, 2008 as the end of the world as we know it. We have 41 days left.
"I say in about 90 days all hell is going to break lose. The crash will be very very bad. Then you will here from me in a big way. When I post something like this: I love the smell... There will be no refuting any of my arguments!
The What (Tick.. Tick.. Tick..)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 18, 2008 2:52 PM"
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 5, 2008 3:28 PM
Lechecal, I do agree even if it's an apartment and not a house, it's still best to own it at least 5 years if not 10, ideally. Buying and selling within 3 year at any time not just now, is risky. But many more New Yorkers do stay longer in apartments than you may realize. We had a 2BR co-op we sold in Park Slope my husband owned for 9 years as a young bachelor. All his neighbors had a child or two, and they they've all lived there in 2BR size apartments anywhere from 5 to 9 years. It's only when kids get closer to 10-12 years old that it's nicer if kids don't have to share a room. But it's not horrible to share, nor is it rare in NYC.
Posted by: traditionalmod at September 5, 2008 3:38 PM
"LMMFAO! You are a fucking idiot! you are living in the middle of a Ghetto!"
- Twhat
LMMFAO! You are an idiot! You are NO LONGER living in the middle of a Ghetto!
Refer to my post at 1:40 PM to see why your comment is off the mark.
We know you have a very loose grip on reality, sweetie, but when you intentionally avoid someone's post, we all know we have hit the nail right on the head. You are so easy to read.
I really hope you like Thai food.
Posted by: 11233 at September 5, 2008 3:49 PM
Lechacal--no offense taken and yes I am aware that the house is likely not going to appreciate any time soon (I even expect it to depreciate somewhat, although I purchased it at 200G less than original ask so I don't think I bought at the "top" of the market, maybe midway down the slide?). I did buy for the long haul--my career is here, I can work from home now and save on office space in the city etc etc, my wife and I like Clinton Hill and have found a community of parents and kids that I think my children will be happy among. that being said, I am married to an Aussie so at some point we will give Sydney a shot and rent out our place here (another reason to ditch the co-op).
Aussie--thanks for the vote of confidence. As I am sure you know, these decisions are hard. I certainly can see both sides of your and Lechacal's conversation about how to time the market etc. Lechacal's stance, as rational as it is, implies a life that is very mobile and flexible. My life is not that way, with children and careers and need for space etc (as I am sure many people's lives here are). So I don't have the luxury of playing the market in the same way. I did buy what I thought was easily the best value in the area that I wanted to live in and I did manage to knock a good bit off the ask before I bought so I feel all things considered I made a rational choice that met most of my parameters. Certainly I don't expect to flip this house at any profit in the near future, but I now have a comfortable house for my family and my business, and I can make my mortgage payments while only having to rent out one floor (garden). So that was my choice and I thought long and hard about it. Selling my two bedroom coop proved very easy, which shows you that well priced apartments in well maintained buildings in desirable neighborhoods continue to sell without too much trouble.
DOW--I will call a moratorium on calling you DOWhat. I am not convinced you are not one and the same and believe me I will continue to observe you "bosum buddies" posting patterns but I have no interest in making internet enemies. You at least can dole out your doomsday scenarios with a modicum of decorum. Whether or not you are the "bear prophet" you picture yourself to be, you have a point of view and you manage to articulate it without calling people names.
WHAT---This quote is classic---"You Assfucks know deep down this thing is over but the denial is very thick." If "this thing" is the insane explosion of property values then yes it is over, but who here is denying that. You throw these straw men up to shoot down but nobody is really arguing at least the basics of the economic issues. It is when you delve into the sociological aspects that you reveal yourself to be such a dumbass troll. "This thing" (this site, these people, these neighborhoods) is a discussion about old houses and revitalizing neighborhoods and renovating. This is not over---a dip in the economy is a drag but it doesn't mean people stop going on with their lives.
And why don't you answer my question about the chinese? You rant and rave about this stuff and then when I try to get into it with you you clam up. Classic internet bully...
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 3:55 PM
"And why don't you answer my question about the chinese? You rant and rave about this stuff and then when I try to get into it with you you clam up. Classic internet bully..."
wasder and 11233, DOWhat avoids all posts that nail him. In calling him out on his 90 day doom and gloom prediction, he hasn't once responded or acknowledged his timeline. Did you notice that his countdown (which often mysteriously reset) quickly stopped once he realized we were monitoring it? But the banter between his two alter egos DOW8000SP800 and The What is adorable. wasder, it's too coincidental they almost always appear in the same threads at the exact same time. They're one and the same.
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 5, 2008 3:58 PM
"I had a conversion with a good old friend of mind last night. "
I missed that his "conversion" occured with an imaginary friend. At least he's being honest now.
Posted by: dittoburg at September 5, 2008 4:00 PM
Biff, I am trying to be charitable. I have certainly explored the chance coincidence of the timing of their posts, and I have noted that they both claim to be "in my head" among many other similarities. But DOW insists that he is his own person so I will take him/her at their word for the time being.
Ditto, I had a conversion with an imaginary friend myself. He became Jewish and I became whatever religion imaginary people practice. What a maroon!
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 4:08 PM
"Remember If what I'm saying is wrong then ignore it."
This strategy doesn't work very well because that means that all of the garbage you spew just sits there unchallenged and thus with the appearance of accuracy. Plus, this being a blog and all, it would be pretty funny if we all went around ignoring and not discussing each other's posts.
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 4:26 PM
Lechacal, your posts and motivation suddenly make sense. I should have known that you were selling short. A new category will be born: bitter short seller.
Posted by: FatLenny at September 5, 2008 4:43 PM
wasder- that was hysterical! You are just too nice to the What. Would that biff (an evil evil man!) and all the rest could be charitable. Who knows? we might touch something deep inside that little wizened heart and bring forth the blossoms of love and compassion and companionship. Then he could have conversations with his imaginary friends instead of converting them. He could find his true porpoise in life.
Posted by: bxgrl at September 5, 2008 5:09 PM
As the DOWAHT would say LOL - I can just imagine him drunkenly cuddling up with a porpoise and mumbling ass this and ass that.
Posted by: dittoburg at September 5, 2008 5:13 PM
True Porpoise: "These assfucks just don't understand you"
What: "Oh baby don't say that. I am sure they love me for who I am, like you. Can you lift your dorsal fin? My arm's falling asleep."
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 5:30 PM
FatLenny, why would I be bitter? I have at least $20k (and counting) more in the bank just based on the difference between my rent and what I would have spent on a mortgage for an equivalent apartment in the past 10 months. And I would guess that I could probably pick up an apartment in my price range for about $100k less right now than I would have had to spend last year. So far I am pretty deep in the green - more than $10,000 a month since I traded back to renter status. So I'm actually a pretty happy short seller.
If you are accusing me of wanting prices to go down, then of course you are correct. The cheaper prices are when I buy, the better. But by no means does that mean that I'm not right about my predictions.
Wasder: It sounds like you bought for all the right reasons. You certainly don't go into the irrational buyer bin. I hope you enjoy your place for a long time.
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 5:33 PM
Lechacal-thanks. Can you or Lenny explain what the concept of "short selling" is?
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 5:39 PM
You can't actually short sell a house. It's done in the stock market and works like this:
1. Borrow a stock from someone (brokers arrange this pretty easily)
2. Sell the stock into the market and collect the proceeds.
3. Buy it back later and return it to the person you borrowed it from.
If the price went down in the meantime, viola! You made money. If the price went up, you lost money.
Posted by: lechacal at September 5, 2008 5:42 PM
"Remember If what I'm saying is wrong then ignore it." - DOWhat.
That is so priceless and consummate DOWhat philosophy - I'll tell you when I'm right and let's all ignore me when I'm wrong.
"we might touch something deep inside that little wizened heart and bring forth the blossoms of love and compassion and companionship."
bxgrl, I have a whole new image of DOWhat. I'll forever think of him as the Grinch Who Stole Brownstoner! However, I don't want him to change. He honestly brightens my days. But alas, both DOW8000SP800 and The What stopped posting yet again at the same time. Amazing!
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 5, 2008 5:45 PM
Like clockwork Biff.
Posted by: wasder at September 5, 2008 6:10 PM
Wow o wow! I'm am in your fucking heads. All of you have an obsession with The What.
The last 30 posts was about me. You dumbfucks are so sidetrack you can't see the baseball bat coming your way! First it was the Chinese "thinking about dumping Us debt and noe Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are INFUCKINGSOLVENT! These two institutions account for 40% of the Mortgages made in America. I know what you thinlking "What does that have to do with Brownstone Brooklyn". Well assfucks you will find out....
U.S. Rescue Seen at Hand for 2 Mortgage Giants
http://tinyurl.com/69kbtj
"WASHINGTON — Senior officials from the Bush administration and the Federal Reserve on Friday called in top executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance giants, and told them that the government was preparing to place the two companies under federal control, officials and company executives briefed on the discussions said."
Oh Fuck me!!!! If you are a large holder if US debt and seeing the inflation ramp job. Why in the fuck would you hold US Treasuries??!!! This a baaaad thing because interest rates are going to the fucking moon. This will kill the Mutant Real Estate Asset Bubble.
Now to the Asshats. I see something real funny. You always circle of fucks going after me, let's see why. They are White Middle aged closet Homosexuals that they was coming to the "Ghetto" for colonization. These Asshats make a grave error in moving here. Now The What has been banging on these motherfuckers and they can't stand it!
If you can't see we are in big trouble, I can't help you......
The What (Fuck all of you)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 5, 2008 11:18 PM
Like Lechacal, we sold and and are now renting, for a variety of reasons. So, while we sold in a high market, it does indeed matter to us what the market does since the difference of several 100K or even 50K makes a big difference in our lives (we are not bankers, and our salaries are relatively modest). That said we are not "waiting for the bottom" per se - we'll buy if we see the right house but every broker tells us we are lucky to be in the position we are in. I'm not sure if prices will go below 2003 levels - who really knows? - it would not shock me, but even if they went to 2004-05 levels, it would be a lot less than what they've been of late, and yet most sellers would still come out fine.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 5, 2008 11:21 PM
Listen up,
Weren't we having this same discussion about housing bubbles and doom and gloom and all that business, a year ago?
As I stated then, the housing market in nyc is not tanking or crashing or anything of that sort.
We are in an economic slowdown, that's it. People still need to buy homes to live in, and guess what, the population is growing here in nyc.
Perhaps you will not see 20% increases but you will definitely not see a depression of biblical proportions as the same old assclown has been predicting here for over 2 years.
Here are some soboring numbers, 2nd quarter GDP was POSITIVE 3.3%. What does that mean? That means that the American economy is continuing to grow. 1st quarter was something like 0.9% and last quarter of 07 was something like 0.2%. What does that mean? That means that there is a trend away from a bottom in late 2007.
Now factor in the fact that we have acutally WON in Iraq. Yeah I said it, because you liberal poseurs are loathe to even think of it. Factor in that oil prices are bound to come down now that our fellow Americans have finally figured out that driving around in a giant Tonka toy is not the smartest way to get around town at 4 dollars a gallon. Factor in that productivity continues to increase and that the mortgage "meltdown" has come and gone and been factored in to the Nth degree already. Sorry to say, history will show no Bush recession.
2008 will be a slow growth year, but not a depression as the local assclown constantly predicts.
So buy a home if you are in the market, consider a more marginal area for a good deal. There is one right in the center of Brooklyn, which is the last place to get a brownstone for a reasonable price and any moron can see is surrounded by gentrifying areas. Figure it out.
No doubt, we have a rise in unemployment and some inflationary pressures. But what do you silly chicken littles expect? Constant decreases in these numbers? Economies are clyclical. Talk to me when we go double digit like they routinely do in good ol Europe. You know, that place so many libs aspire to be like. lol.
Anyway, my last bit of advice is to consider the past. If you had bought during the last big housing downturn in the early nineties you would have gotten that brownstone in Park Slope for about 500K, which seemed like a fortune then. Just something to think about while your landlord is knocking your 1 bedroom roach motel looking for his 2K.
P.S. Two last minute deal breakers:
-an Israeli attack on Iran (which is totally due)
or
-a problem with the new Darth Vader; Vladimir Putin
which would cause worldwide oil instability and send fuel prices soaring, in the short term, but have the postive long term effect of finally breaking us of our foreign oil fix habit.
Posted by: Legion at September 6, 2008 8:23 AM
Wow, Legion, thanks for the recitation of David Lereah press releases circa 2005 combined with the wisdom of a.m. talk radio. Here's what I think:
1. You should definitely buy. If you already own, pick up a couple of income properties.
2. The rest of us (the mere idiots) will wait.
Posted by: lechacal at September 6, 2008 8:35 AM
Miss Muffett: You are right that if prices went down to 2004 levels most everybody would be OK except for the folks who bought in the last couple of years and are trying to sell (flippers etc). Otherwise, hopefully you will get a great deal and having sold at the top of the market renting and waiting will have been a great call. I will send you some good mojo in hopes it works out.
What, that was your greatest post ever at 11:18. Nicely done.
Posted by: wasder at September 6, 2008 3:14 PM
Legion is right on
Posted by: troll at September 7, 2008 9:57 AM
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