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September 24, 2008
Mad Men Moving to Wall Street Digs?

Now that Wall Street is wounded, everyone's asking who will snatch up our ever-increasing condo inventory (the units that don't go rental, that is). Well, the NY Observer predicts that advertising execs will be next in line to buoy the housing market. "The median entry wage for an advertising and promotions manager in New York City was $63,780 in 2007, not far off from the $76,230 entry-level wage for a financial manager in the same period," they report, and $166,400 is the median wage for marketing manager and financial manager. True, advertising might take a hit, too, but "it’s certainly permissible to speculate on which industries in the city can still fund the envy-producing lifestyles that provide the ambitious young worker bee enough liquid cash for a one-bedroom apartment or a no-frills condo in Brooklyn." Hey, if it makes you feel better.
The Next Condo Buyers [NY Observer]
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Comments
From the Observer's lips to God's ear. There you have it. Problem solved! Yesterday's $4 MM HOTD will be in contract in a week. Congress will decide to vote and pass the bailout plan this afternoon. The stock market will be up 1,000 points and we can all go back to discussing white flight, marauding teens and recessed lighting.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 24, 2008 9:32 AM
RIP , Bill Hicks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDW_Hj2K0wo
Posted by: Prodigal_Son at September 24, 2008 9:35 AM
Kids - hate to burst your bubble, but ad guys don't make huge bonuses - they're not nearly on the same level as those Wall Street crooks.
Posted by: tmd78 at September 24, 2008 9:39 AM
this argument is so fallacious it makes me dizzy. hey, it may be worthy of a new york mag cover story!
Posted by: z at September 24, 2008 9:45 AM
Regarding advertising, it is funny how even after the subprime meltdown, there are still lots of tv commercials advertising lending scams like "reverse mortgages" for seniors.
Part of the new government regulation should ban such advertisements. Obviously only fools believe them anyway, but there are a hell of a lot of fools out there.
Posted by: IronBalls at September 24, 2008 9:49 AM
reverse mortgages aren't scams. like any other housing finance product, they can be marketed deceptively, but there's nothing wrong with reverse mortgages per se. in fact they help many seniors to have a living income while keeping their homes.
Posted by: z at September 24, 2008 9:57 AM
Hey kids, don't get too excited. If you're thinking of a career in advertising entry level incomes start more in the low 30K range so expect pull a few years of late nights before you get to the 60K quoted above. Also, many agencies don't give bonuses especially in bad times and that is regardless of how the company is doing. Why? Because ad agencies are cheap!
Posted by: SH11232 at September 24, 2008 9:58 AM
Yes, there are legitimate reverse mortgages. But I think Ed McMahon was one of the spokespersons and look what a mess he got himself into!!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 24, 2008 9:58 AM
"advertising might take a hit, too"
No kidding? Huh! Boy, those guys at the Observer are clearly on top of things!
Posted by: East New York at September 24, 2008 10:01 AM
$200,000 in income is about $100,000 after taxes. And, this top figure for marketing includes all bonus (which in the case of Wall Streeters is enhanced with stock options, perhaps not as perky now, but amount to millions in long term holdings). Do the math - an $8,000 monthly payment (including tax benefits) is the minimum for a "nice" brownstone/3BR; annualized you're at $96K. Basically $100,000 gone, with zero savings, and nothing left to live on. Unfortunately, REAL income is what will drive mortgages now. Let's hope that there are a lot of trustfunders out there who appreciate the charms of our borough.
Posted by: HellsBelles at September 24, 2008 10:11 AM
Please enlighten us as to your assumptions and calculations behind the $8,000 monthly mortgage payment.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 24, 2008 10:16 AM
Prodigal Son... thanks for the Bill Hicks... I've been thinking of his 'Fake Economy' bit for the past few months.
Posted by: buttermilk channel at September 24, 2008 10:17 AM
Another big downside--an agency loses a big account or two, and you can lose your job. It's not pretty.
Posted by: tinarina at September 24, 2008 10:20 AM
if you have a kid(s) and make below 200k you're not buying shit in manhattan or anywhere "desirable" in brooklyn.
Posted by: Santa at September 24, 2008 10:22 AM
what a joke of an article. you have got to be kidding. the "luxury landscape" of the city will be significantly changed because of this implosion despite people's efforts to find the new bubble.
Posted by: oldrte10 at September 24, 2008 10:35 AM
Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. advertising spending fell 3.7
percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the biggest decline since 2001, as automakers and phone companies cut marketing budgets as the economy struggled.
Sorry but somebody has to resume the What's cut-and-paste strategy!!!
Some day this wars gonna end
Whatever
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 24, 2008 10:39 AM
Lawyers will be the winners from this mess - there will probably be 20 million lawsuits borne out of it.
Posted by: gkw at September 24, 2008 10:49 AM
hilarious. $167k a year gets you a studio in clinton hill at this point. but the article does hint at some truth; $167k a year should be able to buy more in this city and perhaps it will very soon...
Posted by: travy at September 24, 2008 10:59 AM
As someone in the advertising industry- I can tell you salaries are not that high. Salaries at the Sr. VP level is about 160-180K at most large firms, oh and that's including bonus.
Dave-a 30 year mortgage on average ranges from $5.50- 6.50 per 1,000 dollars borrowed. So on average a 1 million dollar place would have a mortgage of around 6K per month. Helles Belles 8K quote is not far off for a 1 million + home in Brownstone Brooklyn
Posted by: 7andfive at September 24, 2008 11:12 AM
That article is beyond useless. For example:
"In August, average monthly rent on a one-bedroom apartment in a non-doorman Manhattan building was $2,770... doable for an advertising wunderkind making over $60,000."
Given that landlords typically like to see income at 40-50 times the monthly rent, that wunderkind would need to be making $110-138k to get in the door.
Posted by: SnarkSlope at September 24, 2008 11:38 AM
"there's nothing wrong with reverse mortgages per se"
Catch: Price ceilings. Are these price ceilings a fair assessment of market comps minus rental opportunity cost over the life expectancy of the senior?
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 24, 2008 11:45 AM
Is the Observer letting high school students write articles now? I can't believe they actually printed that garbage. There isn't even a good argument that I can debate. It's just a bunch of poorly considered drivel.
Posted by: lechacal at September 24, 2008 11:47 AM
I doubt the lawyers are the next bunch of high end home buyers. There are probably too many of them given the number of mediocre law schools that graduate too many lawyers all competing for that limited pie.
Posted by: Iknow at September 24, 2008 12:18 PM
I HOPE ad people become the new buyers. Better be ready for some MASSIVE price cuts before we get there though...
Posted by: jingle mail at September 24, 2008 12:31 PM
Mr. Bubble has left the building.
Posted by: SnarkSlope at September 24, 2008 2:21 PM
What gets left out of the discussions of salaries is that there are many people relying on existing capital - not just salaries - to finance purchase of new home. So, these people might in fact have relatively modest salaries but are still looking to buy up Brooklyn real estate. However, for those seeking to trade up from apt to townhouse (even a modest one with rental income - I'm in this group), a big part of the financing that is relied upon is income from sale of the apt. What seems to be happening right now is that apartments are taking a bigger hit than houses, probably due to pure supply and demand - there are just more apartments on the market than houses. But, it seems inevitable to me that eventually, the dampening of the apartment market will affect the townhouse market, esp if salaries are not making up the gap between the apt sale and the townhouse cost. If potential buyers are getting less for their apartments, and are nervous about stagnant wages and/or possibly losing their jobs, how would they possibly stretch to trade up? The only people who are exempt from this argument are those who either are making huge & growing salaries (and there will certainly be fewer of those in the near future) and those who already have cashed out - I doubt there are many in latter category since most people prefer to wait to sell until they've identified a new place to buy. In this market, though, esp if you're going from apt to townhouse, that's a very risky proposition.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 24, 2008 2:25 PM
P.S. Another group who might be exempt from softening apt market (and are relying on capital to buy a bigger place) are those with family money. But again, in this climate, even the financial cushions some families have are shrinking - I certainly know many people whose families are suddenly in quite a different place if they were relying on their investments to help them through retirement, family assistance, etc. This is why I can't understand how some on this blog act as if NYC will just be immune from all that is happening - sorry, but that does not seem possible to me. It seems prices **have** to soften considerably.
Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 24, 2008 2:28 PM
"This is why I can't understand how some on this blog act as if NYC will just be immune from all that is happening - sorry, but that does not seem possible to me."
what are you talking about? to my eye, everyone who posts on this site seems to agree that nyc prices are going to suffer -- the only areas of disagreement are when and by how much.
it seems like you are just searching for excuses to post "prices will go down" for the 500th time.
Posted by: z at September 24, 2008 3:24 PM
Golly. I work in advertising. I make over 100K. Is my day finally here??????
Posted by: I_haz_TWO_toilets at September 24, 2008 3:55 PM
Yes. Soon you can haz THREE toilets.
Posted by: SnarkSlope at September 24, 2008 4:45 PM
Sweet!
Posted by: I_haz_TWO_toilets at September 24, 2008 4:55 PM
i do think that a lot of ad guys are more willing to stay in the city with their families. lots of these people have bought in brooklyn. my clients are advertising creatives and they can definitely do make enough money to buy property.
of course they are not getting the crazy bonuses that finance guys do, but as i said yesterday, i really don't think the finance guys are raising families in brooklyn anyway.
make no mistake, advertising gets crushed during a bad economy. the one area that is growing and will continue to grow is internet marketing. the demand for people in that industry outstrips the applicants, and online marketing has a huge upside.
Posted by: wine lover at September 24, 2008 5:07 PM

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