« Bay Ridge Gets Green Market Condo of the Day: 497 12th Street, #1R »

September 30, 2008

Last Week's Biggest Sales

No listings readily available for the Slope sales—anyone know how much they were asking, or how long they were on the market?

1. PARK SLOPE $3,000,000
409 8th Street GMAP (left)
2,511-sf, single-family townhouse. Last sold for $1,375,000 in February 2006, according to Property Shark. Deed recorded 9/24.

2. PARK SLOPE $1,865,000
481 4th Street GMAP (right)
An LLC purchased this 2,748-sf, four-family (all rental, perhaps?) property. Deed recorded 9/26.

3. BAY RIDGE $1,435,000
234 80th Street GMAP
4,632-sf, two-family house built circa 1925; has a garage. Deed recorded 9/24.

4. WINDSOR TERRACE $1,330,000
1670 10th Avenue GMAP
This one was an Open House Pick in late May, when it was listed at $1,425,000. According to its listing, the 55-foot-deep house was configured with an owners’ lower duplex and a top-floor rental. Deed recorded 9/24.

5. WILLIAMSBURG $1,320,990
North 8 condo, Unit 6G GMAP
Original asking for this 1,224-ft unit in the Toll Brothers' development was $1,195,990; the higher sale price likely reflects the fact that a parking space was included. StreetEasy records show that it went into contract about a year ago. Deed recorded 9/24.

Photos from Property Shark.

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Comments

comparing 1 and 2, it looks like a renovated, move-in-ready, single-family home still commands a hefty premium. (yes, i'm making some assumptions about 8th street given the steep price increase over 2 years.)

Posted by: z at September 30, 2008 11:41 AM

Can't wait to see what this feature reveals next week.

Posted by: wasder at September 30, 2008 11:50 AM

wasder, it might still take some time until the recent economic developments are reflected in this column given the lag between contract signings and closings. It's hard to second guess the value of a single family home in Park Slope, but I'm guessing the buyer of #1 above is wondering if he/she should have sat on the sidelines just a bit longer.

Posted by: Biff Champion at September 30, 2008 12:09 PM

Wasder,

I've heard that same sentence (not from you) every week for the last 2 years.

And guess what, nearly every week, we see these prices time and time again.

Now obviously what is happening is a crisis of epic proportions, but it's like a broken record at this point. I remember last August people saying exactly what you just said. And here we are over a year later, and houses are still selling for 3 million bucks.

Posted by: 11217 at September 30, 2008 12:09 PM

Wasder - if you're looking to see the effect of the financial crisis on sales, remember that there's a time lag. We won't really see the effect til at least 3-6 months from now when sales of property hitting market *now* start to have closings. That is when we'll start to see, I predict, bigger and bigger gaps between asking and closing prices and/or more reasonable asking prices to begin with, as reality sinks in and air is at last let out of the unbelievably taut bubble in NYC real estate...

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 30, 2008 12:12 PM

I saw the house on 8th St, stunning.

Posted by: bklynNY4sale at September 30, 2008 12:14 PM

#1 better have something special on the inside.

Posted by: bayridgegirl at September 30, 2008 12:16 PM

11217 - do you really think prices will not go down now? Why would NYC remain totally immune? And if you are so bull-ish, are you predicting prices will actually go up in the near future (1-2 years)? If so, what's your argument? My own observations (from following market like a hawk, since we're actively looking to buy) are that prices have begun coming down and that the trend will only accelerate. So it's not really a broken record - people have been right, it's just a pretty slow process...

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 30, 2008 12:16 PM

pulling money out of crashing stocks and investing in real estate equals rising property values, not too difficult of a concept.

Posted by: bklynNY4sale at September 30, 2008 12:21 PM

Of course I think prices will go down, and potentially in a big way.

Your comment that it's a slow process is the reason for my statement above. We aren't going to see next week's recent sales tumble by anything noticeable. That's silly when buying a house is oftentimes a 3 month process...

I believe according to most of the bear-ish people on this blog, prices should be down about 40% from last year. And it's more like 4%.

You do realize that the National housing market has tumbled about 16% in the last year, with the huge majority of that decrease centered in places like Los Angeles, Phoenix, Las Vegas and South Florida, where prices have tumbled 30% or more. Those places take a huge chunk of that 16% number.

New York is still a city with very little land, and even fewer properties being built.

My sister bought her condo in Washington DC for $425,000 in 2006 and sold it last week for $535,000. So yes, people are still selling their homes and not taking a loss.

Seems like you have a one track mind, Miss Muffet. Just because some places are doing badly, does not mean the entire country is feeling those affects equally.

Posted by: 11217 at September 30, 2008 12:26 PM

Actually, bklynNY4sale, many would say the opposite - buy low, sell high. It's exactly when the market is seeming to crash (stocks) that it could be the best time to buy, and when the market is really high (NYC real estate) that's a good time to sell. Hence, if I were a proprty seller right now (I was a few months ago), I would sell now while the getting's good. Low inventory will help sellers find buyers, but that could change. Buyers, like me, are only getting pickier, and waiting by the sidelines for prices to go down and there is universal consensus that our economy is heading for a rough patch, including in (indeed, possibly especially in) NYC...

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 30, 2008 12:26 PM

12:21...I've heard more people talking about "trying to get in on the market if there's a crash" in the last week than I've heard in a while.

People know that if they buy low and hold on tight, they stand to make money in the long run.

Or you can sit on the sidelines AGAIN and watch everyone around you get rich in 20 years and cry that your rent is too high on an anonymous real estate blog.

(my old landlord bought in 1993 for $400,000 and sold in 2008 for 7 million).

Posted by: 11217 at September 30, 2008 12:29 PM

11217 - we actually agree. I too think prices in NYC will go down but of course don't know the % (no one does!) - but 40% does not seem inconceivable. And I too said we won't see this next week, it will take a while. I also agree that NYC has been and remains different from rest of country - just that given the current crisis, we at last will feel it here. If I seem to have a one track mind, it's because we are on the hunt in a big way for a home - but I assure you I certainly do think of many other things (the election for one!) and am not irrational (i.e. not waiting for total crash before buying...)

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 30, 2008 12:30 PM

We negotiated a slightly reduced price on our Greenpoint new-construction condo yesterday (of all days to even THINK about buying!). We had to fight extremely hard, and we barely got any price reduction at all. The Sponsor did not seem to care about recent economic developments. But we love the space (duplex with exclusive garden), and knew there would be other buyers who love it as much as we do, and that was the determining factor. I am nearly certain that we overpaid, however, I am not looking to turn a profit on this "investment", I simply hope that it won't decline in value too much by the time we decide to sell (which could be 5 years or so).

Posted by: Paul C at September 30, 2008 12:31 PM

RE: NYC

The tighter the lending standards, the fewer developments which will be built, which will eventually lead to tighter inventory, which will then lead to higher demand and prices...

We are still expected to increase our population significantly over the next 10 years. Even if it's half of the projected million people, we have limited space here in a world which is very quickly going to become even more urbanized.

Posted by: 11217 at September 30, 2008 12:34 PM

11217 - again, yes, long-term demographic trends point the way for all cities to probably increase in value over the long term (although, alternative energy and other unknown changes in the suburbs could perhaps make suburban living more appealing too, who knows). But what we are talking about is the short to mid-term, which looks rather grim and the gains in NYC real estate of the last 10 years reek of bubble-dom that seem very likely to soften if not pop. Really, no one can predict the long-term future so the best we can do is make informed decisions about the shorter time horizon before us (i.e whether to buy or sell).

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 30, 2008 12:40 PM

MISS MUFFETT COMMENT-BOT ACTIVATED

Prices will go down!

Sellers will be fine if they sold more than 2 years ago!

I sold my home at just the right time!

I can't wait for a bargain on a house!

MISS MUFFETT COMMENT-BOT DEACTIVATED

REPEAT PROGRAM
SETTING: INFINITE LOOP

Posted by: z at September 30, 2008 12:42 PM

"The tighter the lending standards, the fewer developments which will be built, which will eventually lead to tighter inventory, which will then lead to higher demand and prices..."

There may be higher demand, but as lending standards tighten, less people will be approved for mortgages. There is a credit freeze, so while people may want to buy, the demand will likely not increase because they can't buy. There is a credit freeze.

11217, I'm usually in agreement with you and I've been as bullish as anyone here, if not more, when it came to Brooklyn RE. But right now I just don't see prices going anywhere but down for the next couple of years. If I was looking to buy, I would be throwing out extreme lowball offers right now and be content waiting on the sidelines. I think once we see the first of the decreased selling prices in prime brownstone Brooklyn, other sellers will start settling for less and less and a rapid decline will follow.

Posted by: Biff Champion at September 30, 2008 12:44 PM

Congratulations Paul C. Sounds like you will love the place, and to "over pay" is usually subjective. If you'd lost it, you'd have found yourself wishing you'd paid period.

I have to say I'm stunned by the 8th street sale. For 2,500 sq. feet in the south slope, that is a mighty nice pile o' dough. Haven't seen anything like it for almost a couple of years. Unbelievable, particularly given the current "slipped down the rabbit hole" state of affairs in all things economic and political. Sigh.

Posted by: Nokilissa at September 30, 2008 12:45 PM

How long before either prices drop, or lending requirements lessen that 30k as a downpayment could get me any sort of space in a desireable neighborhood?

Something tells me I should keep saving!!

Posted by: A Guest at September 30, 2008 12:49 PM

These prices show that the market is not what is used to be, but still it's not crashing. I think the Windsor Terrace place is a good example. I think it could have gotten the asking last year but it sat on the market a while and ultimately sold a reasonable amount below asking. I think what we are going to see is that the market in Brooklyn will continue to slow, but not crash. Afterall, we know that Brooklyn and NYC in general is an incredibly attractive place to live. What will happen though is the mortgages will become increasingly more difficult to get and there will simply be fewer qualified buyers because of the loss of jobs. Places will sit longer on the market and owners who need to sell will have to take less (and maybe a lot less than they hoped for) in order to move their places. That's my two cents.

Posted by: ks8000 at September 30, 2008 12:53 PM

The 8th Street House was sold by Two Trees. It belonged to the guy who owns the "Ricky's" chain. The place was featurd in the Times last year - definitely a stunning, high-end reno.

Posted by: Rookie at September 30, 2008 12:54 PM

I wish people would stop thinking about real estate like it is a stock.

Posted by: billyboomer at September 30, 2008 12:59 PM

Ah.

Thanks Rookie, that helps to explain the price tag. I couldn't imagine 3 mill for that sized home in the south slope in today's market. But if it was reno-ed and jazzed up to within an inch of its life, then a buyer can fall in love. And one obviously did.

Posted by: Nokilissa at September 30, 2008 1:01 PM

Hey z, I chucked at the Miss Muffett bot spoof - but come on, there's a lot of repetition among others here too, not just me. And believe it or not, I do have other comments from time to time (i.e. gave some advice on a bathroom reno!).

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 30, 2008 1:14 PM

Oops, I meant I chuckled, not chucked. (really, I don't take this blog that seriously...)

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 30, 2008 1:15 PM

WHy does everyone on this blog continuously fail to point out one additional x factor into the BK RE equation:

EUROPEANS!

Take a stroll on 7th ave in PS, Grand Army Plaza, Montague St or on Dekalb in FG and listen to how many ppl speak one of the romance languages. So long as the dollar keeps getting weaker, these high prices in the most desirable nabes will hold strong bc BUYERS STILL EXIST!!

Posted by: bktycoon at September 30, 2008 1:16 PM

Not sure how much longer we will be able to rely on the Euros - from what I've heard in passing a number of Euro banks have either failed or have been having troubles (I haven't really read up on it) Fortis is having some serious problems.

Posted by: A Guest at September 30, 2008 1:19 PM

Rookie, is this the 8th Street place?

http://www.twotreesre.com/search/qsearch/?id=153&form_display=30

Looks like it was listed at 3.1. Looks amazing.

Posted by: wishinone at September 30, 2008 1:20 PM

bktycoon, that's true, but it is very likely that the Europeans will be affected by what we're currently experiencing with respect to real estate prices and bank failures in their own necks of the woods. Don't be so sure there's an endless number of them with the desire and means to migrate here.

Posted by: Biff Champion at September 30, 2008 1:22 PM

"pulling money out of crashing stocks and investing in real estate equals rising property values, not too difficult of a concept."

What is this, a GMAT question? I'll take a swipe at it.

pulling money out of crashing stocks and [dumping into crashing] real estate equals rising [stupidity, an asinine] concept.

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 30, 2008 1:23 PM

BKTYCOON: If you ever talk to any of the europeans walking aroudn the neighborhood you'd realize that many of them are working in NY, many in the financial services sector. They will be impacted in many of the same ways. The bottom line is that high prices have been driven by willingness and ability to pay higher prices. In this credit crunch, the willingness will sure be there but the ability won't as banks simply are going to lower the loan amounts given to the most qualified of buyers.

Posted by: ks8000 at September 30, 2008 1:37 PM

bktycoon - Not paying much attention to the European economy, are you?

Posted by: SnarkSlope at September 30, 2008 1:39 PM

" "The tighter the lending standards, the fewer developments which will be built, which will eventually lead to tighter inventory, which will then lead to higher demand and prices..."

Pardon me for sounding schoolmarmish, but...
1.) tighter inventory does not lead to higher demand. It leads to less supply.
2.) higher demand for housing is usually spurred by rising incomes and household formation. Whose income will be rising for the next few years? How many people will be moving here, given the imminent recession?

This is not a scenario supporting being bullish on prices over the next 5 years or so. Longer-run is another story.

Posted by: Back40 at September 30, 2008 1:40 PM

@wishinone - yep that's the place.
@Nokilissa - It's definitely that type of place. If this is your thing, it was a "money is no (or little) object" decision.

Here's the Times piece on it

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/18/garden/18rickys.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=ricky%20park%20slope%20townhouse&st=cse&oref=slogin

FYI - the twin row-house to the left of it sold recently as well.

Posted by: Rookie at September 30, 2008 1:43 PM

Whoops. Didn't see all the responses to my tossed off post above. Yeah, I get it that it will probably take some time to see the effects of the crash in real dollar terms. I obviously am not rooting for this to happen as some people are but am fairly certain that it will happen (major price declines). I encourage Brownstoner to be more consistent with the "6 months later" feature as that gives a much more nuanced picture of how the market is working and how prices are holding up.

Posted by: wasder at September 30, 2008 1:57 PM

NY Case-Shiller index is getting worse (new figure released today) and it has a two-month lag. Fuggettaboutit!!!

Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 30, 2008 2:20 PM

I like Ricky's crib--thanks for the links. I'm going to assume that those kitchen cabinets look better in person than they do online.

As for the future of Brooklyn RE, we can all hope for the best but anything can happen at this point. I think there's a miniscule chance that the crisis can be contained to some degree but it's not looking good.

I don't buy the argument that NYC will get hit harder just because it's held up better so far. There's just less speculation here than there was in Vegas or the Florida exurbs. But I would be surprised if we didn't get at least a 10-15% correction in the next 2 years, even in the good nabes. Let's just hope it's only 10-15% and not 30%.

Posted by: FatLenny at September 30, 2008 2:25 PM

Just to chime in on the let's-pray-the-europeans-keep-us-afloat thread. We have good friends in Europe, and believe me, people are getting nervous there. The world is increasingly interconnected so a recession here will probably mean a recession in Europe. And, the euro is actually a lot weaker now than it was at its peak - and, like everything else, is experiencing a vair amount of volatility. So, euros will not prop up prices.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 30, 2008 2:31 PM

30% will be ok for most. Anyone who's had their property for more than 5 years would still come out ahead. You are forgetting that many people in these Brownstone neighborhoods have owned their homes for 20 plus years and bought them for a song (my neighbor who paid 60K for a brownstone for example...he bought 2).

There are still a lot of those people around. They've seen this happen before and still seem quite happy in their homes from what I can tell. They don't even think about how much their home is worth every single day, if you can imagine!

;-)

Posted by: 11217 at September 30, 2008 2:34 PM

Miss Muffet:

A couple from Berlin just bought an apartment in the building next to mine...they closed 2 weeks ago. They are one of about 8 couples/families from Europe (just on my block!) who have bought in the last 2 years that I can think of. 7th Avenue is FILLED with Europeans these days...I heard French, German and Italian just on my 4 block walk to Key Food last night.

Don't say it isn't happening. It IS happening. It might (and probably is) slowing down dramatically, but NYC is still a bargain when compared to other great cities. 22nd most expensive city in the world.

Don't forget also...as happened in Japan in the 1990's...when the financial sector crashes, it is usually followed but a cultural revival.

Studio 54 opened in one of the darkest times in NYC history don't forget. The club scene and visual and performing arts flourished during this time.

We may be in for a rough patch economically, but we could all be in for a major resurgence in culture in this city...something I think which has been severely on the downturn during this period of Wall Street excess.

Try to look at the positives.

Posted by: 11217 at September 30, 2008 2:40 PM

Bloomberg is going to announce on Thursday, he wishes to extend his run to a third term.

I don't know about you guys, but that makes me less nervous about the state of NYC moving forward in these difficult times. I think he's the man for the job at this point and knows that not basic services and keeping crime low will prevent NYC from slipping into another dark time like in the 70's.

I bet what's left of Wall Street will be a firm supporter of his bid for a 3rd term as well.

Posted by: 11217 at September 30, 2008 2:54 PM

11217, cultural revival is a really fantastic point. You're spot on about the relationship between dark times and culture.

Posted by: lechacal at September 30, 2008 2:59 PM

I should have checked out Case-Schiller before saying anything:

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/09/case-shiller-house-prices-declined-in.html

NYC is down roughly 10% YoY. Obviously that's a generic figure not specific to neighborhoods, but still, we're headed South. I agree that 30% wouldn't be the end of the world.

Posted by: FatLenny at September 30, 2008 3:01 PM

11217 - I'm not sure why you single me out to argue your positions, since, as I said, we really agree on lots of things. I too think 30% sounds about right for a correction, but believe me, I love this city and want to stay since I think it will, in the long run, stay vibrant despite the inevitable rough patch we're entering. Since we don't want to stay in our temporary rental for very long, we probably will wind up buying before the market bottoms out, but that's OK since even if "overpay" a bit, our next home is where we intend to stay for life. And I agree that euros have been helping the market, but it's simply that we're in a new phase now and that may slow down if not trickle away entirely. And as for Bloomberg, I totally agree that I'd love him to stay a 3rd term, term limits be damned! And this from a died-in-the-wool democrat that never thought I'd pull a Republican lever at the ballot box, and someone suspicious of too much executive power. But I really think the city would benefit from the stewardship of our competent mayor (even if he's not without downsides i.e. school report cards, misguided stadium projects, etc.) during these difficult times.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at September 30, 2008 3:02 PM

miss muffett, you're a good sport. all in good fun!

Posted by: z at September 30, 2008 4:44 PM

It doesn't really matter what any of us think. Can prices in Brooklyn come down by a third of their peak? Sure. Has it happened before? Sure. Will it be different this time? Anything is possible. Does the supply of people willing to sell their houses at a lower price dry up, as it did in 1989 - 1992? Usually. Will there be sales that are significantly lower than asking prices? Yup. Will one of us be the lucky ones? Who knows. Will the potential buyers be able to get a loan? Maybe. Are most people who own houses in Brooklyn thinking of selling any time soon because the overall market is down? No. So there you have it. Supply and demand, and the ability to pay. Check back in a year or two from now and we'll know the answers....

Posted by: raphael9 at September 30, 2008 5:10 PM

I heard from a friend that Credit Lyonnais is going in with Credit Agricole to put up a flagship tower on Fulton.

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 30, 2008 5:51 PM

I heard from the internet that Crédit Lyonnais was acquired by Crédit Agricole in 2003.

Posted by: SnarkSlope at September 30, 2008 6:14 PM

Nokialuscious,
You haven't been around much. Have you guys decided to give househunting a break for the time being? Have you finally experienced RE burnout?

11217,
Your Studio 54 example made me and Mlle. Muffay chuck, I mean chuckle...in many ways...Studio 54 was high (and I mean high) culture. Very indicative of how the real estate values and civic spending correlate to culture. Actually, you would better look at demographics and history. Funny...a lot of people like to say that that part of the 70's was abysmal...go figure.

BTW, I don't think Bloomberg should get the third term simply based on principle. Just like Jewel-Yanni didn't get his "I want to be your Dream Mayor for a while longer so let's postpone the election, why not..." wish, we have to make sure we do not live in an anything-goes feudal system (at least not on the surface). Bending the rules to please the nobles and monarchy clashes with our state and national covenants. Mind you, this is nothing against Bloomberg, the person.

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 30, 2008 6:20 PM

I heard from a friend who has access to the Internet at work that a real estate blog he consults mentioned the new Credit Lyonnais BROOKLYN was thinking of a Red Hook location with a free ferry from Wall Street but decide on Fulton because of its proximity to BAM and all the exciting FG restaurants. Re: Credit Agricole, I think it is actually a division of Morgan Stanley or maybe Travelers.

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at September 30, 2008 6:26 PM

BG,

A resounding, unfortunate and mildly sheepish yes. But more importantly, life has been a harried and hectic space of late, leaving little or no room for much loved participation in sparring on Brownstoner. For now.

Posted by: Nokilissa at September 30, 2008 10:46 PM

Noklissa - did you give up looking due to low inventory? Waiting out the market? Just curious.

Posted by: Miss Muffett at October 1, 2008 12:18 AM

Miss Muffett,

All of the above. That and it just got depressing and tiresome. And nothing ever came close to the place on Adelphi I'd fallen in love with - which we lost out on in a closed bidding war if you can believe such a thing. So I made the cardinal mistake in a home search: fell in love. And lost. Now can't find a "replacement".

Oh, and that pesky little problem of having to sell our place in Manhattan, which is no picnic at present. That too. Sigh.

Posted by: Nokilissa at October 1, 2008 10:01 AM

Nokilissa, what area(s) are you looking at in BK?

Posted by: Biff Champion at October 1, 2008 10:39 AM

I don't care how nice that 8th Street house is, it has to be THE most expensive house on all of 8th Street and it's not even on a park block. I'm guessing it's even one of the top 2 or 3 most expensive houses in the South Slope. The buyer must have really loved that house because the purchase defies logic.

Posted by: Nobrokersplease at October 1, 2008 10:59 AM

Nobrokersplease, I'm with you. Even with a super duper renovation, could it really be worth over $1.6MM more than what the seller originally paid in 2006?? Especially given everyone's expectations for the direction with which sales prices will be moving.

Posted by: Biff Champion at October 1, 2008 11:04 AM

Does anyone have an idea on the area of 16th St. and PPW, specifically 16th bet 8 Ave+ PPW? I'm looking to rent in the area (pvt home w basement and large yard) The area looks to be rapidly gentrifying and seems to have many great features (very close to Park, F train, etc.) Heard that a new Pub/Restaurant is opening shortly right on the corner of 16th and PPW (owners from Cake Shop in lower Manhattan). I am confident that the apartment and area have all that I want/need. I'm just trying to get an additional feel on the nabe. Thanks.

Posted by: Hank at October 1, 2008 11:44 AM

Nobrokers and Biff,

I'm nonplussed with that one too. It is just odd.

And the renovation, while we are told "stunning" and "high end", appears to me the kind of thing that will be out of style relatively soon (I didn't care for that kitchen, so perhaps I'm biased just a bit).

Anyway, Biff, still interested in Ft. Greene, North Slope, Brooklyn Heights and Cobble Hill. In that order.

Posted by: Nokilissa at October 1, 2008 12:33 PM

Nokalassi,

Are you trying to sell a 2-bedroom apt in Manhattan? Is the market weird right now.

Is supply very tight in the neighborhoods you're looking at? It doesn't seem there is a lot of quality out there right now.

I guess paying 1.2m for a decent 2-family that needs a good deal of work (300-400k) wouldn't be outrageous in prime Brooklyn but every 4-story house seems to be north of 1.2 even when they need complete, entire overhauls. I'm talking about prime brownstone/landmarked districts of course. And I guess a shell in BH would be 2m+.

FG has very little on the market and a lot of renos going on so I guess nothing will move for a while.

Thoughts anyone?

Posted by: BrooklynGreene at October 1, 2008 5:49 PM

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September 30, 2008

Last Week's Biggest Sales

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