« Now That's Luxury Real Estate Co-op of the Day: 60 Pierrepont, #3 »
September 9, 2008
Last Week's Biggest Sales

Pretty brisk business in the brownstone neighborhoods and a head-scratcher in Manhattan Beach.
1. COBBLE HILL $3,950,000
13 Tompkins Place GMAP (left)
This 4,100-sf townhouse was originally listed for $4.5 million in February, according to StreetEasy. Asking dropped by a quarter mil about 5 months ago. House has two units, one of which is a 5-bedroom triplex. Deed recorded 9/02.
2. MANHATTAN BEACH $3,050,000
150 Hastings Street GMAP (right)
3,532-sf house on a 6,000-sf lot half a block from Manhattan Beach Park. Property Shark records show it last traded for $800,000 in 2005—quite the meteoric appreciation.
3. BOERUM HILL $2,700,000
253 Dean Street Street GMAP
20 ft x 42 ft townhouse with an owner's triplex and rental unit. The property sold quickly: It was listed for $2.495 million in late May. The Los Angeles-based person who signed as a trustee for the purchase has the same name as someone who's reportedly dating a star of the TV show "Grey's Anatomy." Coincidence? Deed recorded 9/03.
4. CLINTON HILL $1,895,000
298 Lafayette Avenue GMAP
3,496-ft, 2-family house priced at $1.995 million when it was an Open House Pick this May. Deed recorded 9/03.
5. CARROLL GARDENS $1,830,000
16 4th Place, Unit 1 GMAP
Triplex condo in a 19th century townhouse. Listed in April for a hair above the closing price, according to StreetEasy. Deed recorded 9/02.
Photos from Property Shark.
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Comments
Future foreclosures! LMMFAO
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 11:41 AM
thats alot of money
Posted by: Santa at September 9, 2008 11:48 AM
I guess this would be throwing water on your Mutant Real Estate Bubble fire!!!!! Admit it What. Today will not be your day!!!
That Manhattan Beach property looks like it might be in Manhattan Beach, CA.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 11:48 AM
Not a coincidence - I saw Sandra O walking down Dean btwn Hoyt and Bond 2 weeks ago.
Posted by: satoriz at September 9, 2008 11:49 AM
Even with a haircut, nearly 4 mil for 4,000 sf. in Cobble Hill is pretty impressive. Looking back there was a lot of scorn at the Clinton Hill price, but someone liked it well enough.
Manhattan Beach--can only assume in 05 there was something different on that lot, and that the buyer is a Syrian Jew or a member of some other clannish sect. Again, that's not a home meant to be marketed to the general public.
At first glance the CG triplex looks to be a decent buy (especially with those windows and yard), but I wonder how useful that rec room area shown on the floorplan is?
My choice would be the BH house, because I like that neighborhood a lot. Looks like a really pleasant place and was obviously priced right.
Posted by: Bolder at September 9, 2008 11:54 AM
Dave, DOWhat is never wrong. Don't you get it? If homes sell at or above ask, they are future foreclosures and he's a genius. If they sell below ask, he was right about the Mutant Real Estate Bubble. He can't lose. Other than the small inconvenient matter of his prediction that we are all doomed on October 16. 37 days left. DOWhat, where's your countdown now? Must I keep reminding you?
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 12:02 PM
Manhattan Beach has a large, well-to-do Russian population that routinely tears down existing homes in favor of McMansions, such as the one pictured above.
Posted by: Architerrorist at September 9, 2008 12:02 PM
satoriz, I assume you're referring to Sandra Oh. Perhaps she was on her way to Paul Giammati's home in BH to discuss a sequel to Sideways?!
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 12:04 PM
Hiya Biff! You and your homeboys are about to get fisted. WAMU and Lehhman are getting ASSRAPED right now! Lookie here bitch!
http://www.bloomberg.com/
Looks like I will be pissing in your drinks come the end of October! LMMFAP you are finished!!
Ker fucking boom!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The What (Hero of the people)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 12:07 PM
The what's obsession with your anus, Biff, is really odd. Don't drop the soap.
Posted by: 11233 at September 9, 2008 12:15 PM
I see Gabby is back. Happy to see ya Gab because Lisa sucks mucho head!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 12:16 PM
"The What (Hero of the people)"
yes, you are heroic.
Why not add "Slayer of Spelling" and "Obsessor of Ass-Related Prose"
Posted by: dittoburg at September 9, 2008 12:18 PM
Hey 11233 How is you investment holding up? The whole Real Estate world is crasing around your head. Don't tell me your punk ass is going to wait it out. Sell now and get something for it (like Lehman).
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 12:18 PM
U.S. Economy: Pending Home Resales Decline More Than Forecast
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZFgAxUK63y8&refer=home
"The index of pending home resales fell 3.2 percent after rising 5.8 percent in June, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. A separate report showed inventories at U.S. wholesalers piled up twice as fast as forecast in July as their sales slid."
Yep yep yep... It is a good time to buy.
"Today's housing figures help explain why the government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac two days ago. Policy makers are aiming to stem the increase in mortgage rates triggered in part by the turmoil that engulfed the two companies, which make up almost half the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market. Rates have dropped since Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's intervention."
Yep but, the programs that was out there is now gone. Don't believe the hype of lower interest rate because the Banks is not going to loan money to Asshats anymore. The Fannie and Freddie bailout will cost us about 300 billion! Dave, 11233, Biff and Wasder you are looking real fucking stupid right now. You are losing the war.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 12:23 PM
DOWhat, will you please answer why your official countdown has stopped? I didn't think so. For such an intellectual, forward thinker, it's odd that you can't understand that, just because you're in deep financial doo doo, many of us here will make out just fine.
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 12:25 PM
Hey t'What: My house is doing well. Making improvements and watching as the neighborhood changes and grows.
How does it feel to still not able to afford anything, even in this market? What does it feel like to watch as your neighborhood - Clinton Hill - slowly changes around you and you are no longer the king of crack hill? Hmmm. Feeling left out? You should.
You had the chance to buy a nice house and make a difference, but you didn't. Now your world is changing around you and you have no control over it. Can't wait till you leave.
As for that bubble, you were part of that bubble by helping people buy into a dream they couldn't afford. How does it make you feel that you screwed people nad now you joke about their downfall?
Now, go get DOW to answer any future questions.
Posted by: 11233 at September 9, 2008 12:26 PM
11233, Freud would have a field day with DOWhat's obsessions. Anyway, apparently we are losing the war, so I shouldn't take this so lightly. I'll wait for the DOW side of the brain to surface and support The What side from our attacks.
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 12:29 PM
2, 5, 10 & 30 year treasury Rates are down today.
What was it you were saying yesterday What when I called you on the rates and you never responded??
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 12:30 PM
Dave, you know DOWhat never responds when he's beaten. Please just leave him alone for a moment while he searches for more articles to cut and paste for his show and tell session. Shortly thereafter, he'll have milk and cookies and take his nap, like all good little asshats do.
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 12:34 PM
"How does it feel to still not able to afford anything, even in this market? What does it feel like to watch as your neighborhood - Clinton Hill - slowly changes around you and you are no longer the king of crack hill? Hmmm. Feeling left out? You should."
You better hope I can afford something Asshole (I have money)! If I can buy some your "investment" is in trouble. You see you reasoning is faulty, Asshat.
"You had the chance to buy a nice house and make a difference, but you didn't. Now your world is changing around you and you have no control over it. Can't wait till you leave."
I already have one. I don't what to be a debt slave.
"As for that bubble, you were part of that bubble by helping people buy into a dream they couldn't afford. How does it make you feel that you screwed people nad now you joke about their downfall?"
Nope homeboy none of my buyers defaulted, in fact soome of them made money.
"2, 5, 10 & 30 year treasury Rates are down today.
What was it you were saying yesterday What when I called you on the rates and you never responded??"
Here ya go Dave! There is one thing you forgot to mention Asshat. The Mortgage programs that was in play at the start of the year is now GONE! Rate could be at fucking zreo and if the banks are not offering your product then you are fucked.
What's wrong Biff Champion you test came back positive?
The What (BRING IT ON!)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 12:39 PM
"What's wrong Biff Champion you test came back positive?"
No, fortunately I wore a condom with your momma.
"The What (BRING IT ON!)"
DOWhat, I keep "bringing on" your prediction of doom for Octber 16, 2008, yet you don't respond other than with your typical homophobic banter. I'm bringing it on again. Care to respond by confirming your prediction or admitting we might have a chance of surviving past October 16?
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 12:46 PM
Good to know you don't want to be a debt slave twhat. Neither do I. That is why I bought a cheap house that I could easily afford. I bought it several years ago, so the turmoil in the markets don't affect me as much you would like them to.
Now, did you buy your house, or did you inherit it from your grandma? Assuming you are not lying about owning a house/apartment, I'll say inherit it, since if you took your hard-earned money and put it into real estate and then made an effort to make that investment worth more by making improvements to it or the neighborhood you live in - which is what all smart investors do - you wouldn't be complaining about the changes around you and you certainly wouldn't be enjoying the suffering of others, which only brings the value of your investment down.
And yes, twhat, you were part of the real estate business. You might try to make yourself feel better by saying no one you helped is doing poorly, but you did help people buy an asset that you are now saying is loosing value. Why did you do that twhat? Why did you sell people something that was worthless for your own personal gain? How do you live with yourself, twhat?
Posted by: 11233 at September 9, 2008 12:49 PM
Let me clear this up for all the newcomers here...
The What's fascination with all things anal and gay stem from his Down Low experiences since he got out of prison.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 12:50 PM
He got apoplectic the last time we pointed out his derriere fixation. I think its because he's already LMMFAO'd so many times that there's nothing left to be proud of behind.
Posted by: dittoburg at September 9, 2008 12:54 PM
""What's wrong Biff Champion you test came back positive?"
No, fortunately I wore a condom with your momma."'
Oooohhh someone got mad, heh heh.I think you got it on with my pops. I don't think you like Pussy Biff, you are one.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 12:56 PM
dittoburg....he's busy looking up the word "apoplectic" right now. Let's see what he come back with!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 12:57 PM
The apple doesn't fall far from the tree What!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 1:02 PM
I thought these boards were supposed to be moderated? All the brainless personal invective really bores.
Anyway, I also saw Sandra Oh a couple weeks ago. Being sometimes short on brain myself, I gave her the "don't I know you" stare before twigging a few feet later. Sorry, Sandra! I'll be cool from now on! We in Boerum Hill do not goggle at our famous neighbors! Congrats on your great house.
Posted by: Brooklyn Chicken at September 9, 2008 1:03 PM
Yes Brooklyn Chicken you are correct and because we ARE in kinder, gentler times you will not get a beat down for not adding something constructive and relevant to the post at hand; that of recent sales prices!!! ;)
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 1:07 PM
BC - we're only commenting here because we can't comment on the Co-op of the day - the comment function is broken.
I for one think its a very nice place. But the maintenance...
Posted by: dittoburg at September 9, 2008 1:07 PM
The Twat said: "Dave, 11233, Biff and Wasder you are looking real fucking stupid right now. You are losing the war."
Twat, the only person conducting a "war" here is you. I for one am about to settle down into a very tranquil period in my 40's where I live in two floors of a spacious federal townhouse, work out of a home office in my parlour floor and raise two lovely daughters with my beautiful wife. I regret that you have no people in your life that make you feel good about yourself but it is a shame that your hideous loneliness and jealousy are free to run rampant over everyone else's thoughts and comments. whatever war you perceive as being waged in the streets of Brownstone Brooklyn is one you will inevitably lose, mostly because how can you win something that is only in your head, you nutty loon.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 1:15 PM
"Oooohhh someone got mad, heh heh.I think you got it on with my pops."
That was priceless! I didn't realize all I had to do was sit back and let DOWhat attack himself. I keep forgetting he's better than any of us at making himself look foolish. DOWhat, why say "bring it on" and then ignore the question. Perhaps Brooklyn Chicken is another of your aliases. So how many days do we have left?
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 1:16 PM
They did such a nice job on the carroll gardens triplex. seems a crazy price, but goes to show what a premium there is on good design.
Posted by: gkw at September 9, 2008 1:16 PM
" I regret that you have no people in your life that make you feel good about yourself but it is a shame that your hideous loneliness and jealousy are free to run rampant over everyone else's thoughts and comments. whatever war you perceive as being waged in the streets of Brownstone Brooklyn is one you will inevitably lose, mostly because how can you win something that is only in your head, you nutty loon."
Tick.. Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..Tick..
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 1:32 PM
Dude, that was your lamest comeback ever. Ticks cause Lyme disease by the way. I would steer clear of them.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 1:36 PM
and there are probably a lot of tick-carrying deer in Lodi, NJ
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 1:44 PM
I don't understand why the What hasn't bought himself a townhouse in Manhattan with the money he made on his shorts, which to be honest have been fairly good calls.
What, don't you have the balls to short? Or don't you have the money?
Posted by: denton at September 9, 2008 1:46 PM
wasder, I agree. That was lame, even by DOWhat's standards. I thought he might have cleverly indicated the number of days we have left by the number of "Tick"s. But that wasn't the case. But I finally realized why he won't address his earlier prediction. HE CAN'T COUNT! I now feel bad for insulting him and will gladly continue the countdown on his behalf. It must have been tough for him trying to get through life watching others pass him by in every way.
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 1:46 PM
Notice he doesn't deny being bitter, lonely or hateful.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 1:47 PM
The Condo in CG did they make that into 2 condo units, One triplex and another one floor unit? It seems like they sold themselves short no? why not sell the units individually.
Posted by: sebb at September 9, 2008 1:50 PM
Hey What, looks like some people know something we don't. Fannie Mae up 45% today! Looks like people think the guvment's gonna make some money off this deal!
Posted by: denton at September 9, 2008 1:57 PM
"I don't understand why the What hasn't bought himself a townhouse in Manhattan with the money he made on his shorts, which to be honest have been fairly good calls.
What, don't you have the balls to short? Or don't you have the money?"
The market is for suckers. With all the obfuscation going on a investor can't make a honest decision. All the fucking lying by our leaders (like Paulson) and institutions (we don't need to raise capital) and the President (There are weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq) and Brownstoner (Highest sales my fucking ass).
Denton we live in a world of fantasy and lies. The Asshats make decisions that fuck up everything for everyone else. We are in the greatest asset bubble know to man and when it pops there will be economic pain that will be felt for years. The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac thing was the beginning. Any motherfucker that argues otherwise is a retarded Asshat...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 2:00 PM
"we live in a world of fantasy and lies"
what
No, twhat, only you do.
Posted by: 11233 at September 9, 2008 2:05 PM
So the What predicted a total collapse in 9 months. I am not sure when he made this prediction and how much time is left, but I think it would be a good idea to place a ticker at the top of brownstoner.
Call it "The What's doomsday ticker"
Posted by: troll at September 9, 2008 2:08 PM
Troll---you are way behind on this one. Biff is on it. October 16th is doomsday. What has agreed to take us out for drinks on the 17th if it doesn't come to pass.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 2:11 PM
As much as I think brownstoner has done a great job with this site I wouldn't call him one of "our leaders." And, maybe he doesn't want to be lumped in with that ilk anyway.
What...if you don't have money in the market long-term you are a fool. Most of us have known this for quite some time but now everybody has proof. Only a fool condemns what he does not understand.
Get some advice and buy some mutual funds. Now I know why you are bitter.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 2:13 PM
"Hey What, looks like some people know something we don't. Fannie Mae up 45% today! "
Perhaps you don’t know how markets work. FNM is trading a little above $1. The money made today was as predictable as the What and Dave having an argument today. In fact, I was asleep at the wheel last night or I would have made the quick easy money that everyone with half brain knew was coming today. But people this is all about long term not short term. I predict this time next year FNM won’t even be traded. Although, unlike the what if I’m wrong next year I’m more than willing to eat humble pie.
Posted by: 7andfive at September 9, 2008 2:15 PM
"What has agreed to take us out for drinks on the 17th if it doesn't come to pass."
Whoa nellie! I promise nothing that from from your mind fuck. Plus a bunch of you said I was a "internet bull" and in real life I'm a punk, right. Why then you want to meet me face to face? I cant see anything of that meeting coming out good.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 2:15 PM
CH house is 24 x 50 x 4 stories = 4,800 square feet.
Posted by: Suburbandude at September 9, 2008 2:23 PM
TWAT--The deal was a complete collapse of our banking system by October 16th we buy you drinks (from the grave because apparently we will be dead by then). If a complete collapse of our banking system does not happen by October 16th you buy us drinks. Don't tell me you are reneging on your promises and being inconsistent?
Twat--if you seriously think I want to have a drink with you you are more pathetic than I thought. I am merely trying to point out what an idiot you are in the starkest terms possible.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 2:24 PM
troll, since DOWhat will never admit to it, I'm happy to present it here, straight from the asshat's mouth:
"I say in about 90 days all hell is going to break lose. The crash will be very very bad. Then you will here from me in a big way. When I post something like this: I love the smell... There will be no refuting any of my arguments!
The What (Tick.. Tick.. Tick..)
Someday this war is gonna end..."
http://www.brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2008/07/whos_gonna_buy.php#comments
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 2:29 PM
wasder, did DOWhat really believe we actually want to socialize with him?? Damn, he really IS delusional! But we're all still on for October 16 drinks at Union Hall.
Here it is with the date and time:
"I say in about 90 days all hell is going to break lose. The crash will be very very bad. Then you will here from me in a big way. When I post something like this: I love the smell... There will be no refuting any of my arguments!
The What (Tick.. Tick.. Tick..)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at July 18, 2008 2:52 PM"
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 2:31 PM
Better make it the 17th to be on the safe side.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 2:34 PM
7&5, if I didn't know how markets work, I wouldn't be watching them, would I? Sorry to hear you missed some easy money. Oh well, there's always tomorrow.
Posted by: denton at September 9, 2008 2:41 PM
denton...what 7&5 talks about are not markets....its speculative crap shooting. Not saying there's anything wrong with it. It's like trading Lehman today between $9 and $10 and back again!!!
And like I say, if it's easy money, no one would miss it!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 2:46 PM
Brownstoner,
I wanted to read some comments on the Manhattan Beach & Clinton Hill properties.
I normally ignore the WHAT et al but today's amount of WHAT related postings is beyond ridiculous. How many posts am I forced to skip through because they are all related to WHAT drivel? On this thread alone 45+++ and counting.
I agree, Brownstoner is an open forum and everyone who is registered should be able to post their opinions or thoughts.
However, Brownstoner should seriously consider limiting the amount of comments per day/per user/per subject thread.
If a user wants to post more or wants to get into a debate with several other users ~ then move it to a private forum/thread that can easily be ignored by the majority of readers.
Also, I am not againt using vulgarity to make a point but come on..... enough is enough , every other word is asshat, assfuck, fisting, etc.
I can not be the only one who finds this offensive, annoying and distracting
Posted by: ESP1967 at September 9, 2008 3:03 PM
"7&5, if I didn't know how markets work, I wouldn't be watching them, would I? "
Is this now the standard for understanding stock markets?! You know the market because you're watching? Oh man! This is the same type of nonsense that leads people to believe that a know nothing homophobe from a lowly populated state can govern the entire US.
Posted by: 7andfive at September 9, 2008 3:08 PM
I think the what should be banned. Refusal of service in a restaurant (or in this case blog) is every bit as American as free speech.
No shoes
No shirt
No manners
No service
Posted by: moreteasir at September 9, 2008 3:08 PM
underwasder, Bidding_War_Champion, overpaidinbedstuy:
I missed you guys! How goes it?
"Foreclosure Makes Its Move on Manhattan"
http://tinyurl.com/63bhwp
"I think the what should be banned."
You don't steer traffic from NY Mag and get banned.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 9, 2008 3:16 PM
DOW--could you please restrain your other half for the rest of the day. He is in especially tedious form.
Meanwhile, what point are you making with this article you have linked to?
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 3:21 PM
DOW...in that article it seems all these people have overextended themselves and got into financial difficulties that have nothing to do with the values of their properties. It's very sad and their ability to borrow was fortified by the easy money but again, as with most of these, who is to blame???
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 3:25 PM
Also, I think that if Brownstoner could ban TWAT he would do so. I know that some people say no publicity is bad publicity but TWAT makes a this site hostile and unpleasant which can't be a good calling card.
Curious to know whether Brownstoner has tried to link DOW and The What through their IP addresses?
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 3:26 PM
And DOW could you please explain the import of your moniker for me. I call you DOWhat (though I am on a moratorium from that) because I strongly suspect that you guys are the same person. I call What TWAT when I am referring to him singularly because he is one. Underwasder obviously references under water, but how that relates to me is unexplained. Do fill me in. Thanks.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 3:29 PM
"Meanwhile, what point are you making with this article you have linked to?"
That foreclosure makes its move on Manhattan.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 9, 2008 3:51 PM
"...it seems all these people have overextended themselves and got into financial difficulties that have nothing to do with the values of their properties."
So it seems. But you know and I know that the mark-to-appreciation-model has everything to do with it. "You can't lose in Manhattan RE!!!".
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 9, 2008 3:55 PM
All right then. Let me be more specific. Why are you linking to an article about foreclosures in manhattan here on a thread about Brooklyn home sales?
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 3:57 PM
wasder....its obvious if you read the article. The number of foreclosures in Manhattan has jumped to 93. Yes, 93. That's ninety three!!!
That means there are 93 fewer people from Manhattan that can sell their condos and buy a brownstone in Brooklyn.
If this isn't significant to the Brooklyn real estate market then I don't know what is and shame on you for not being able to figure that out!!!!!! Jeesh
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 4:03 PM
I seriously get a huge kick when I see The What personality disappear and the DOW personality appear. It's almost as hilarious as when they appear almost (of course never exactly) at the same time and compliment each other. I don't even think DOW is trying hard to disguise it anymore. Even the most casual of visitors here would have guessed the post at 3:16 was from The What if they didn't see DOW's sign-off. Please keep it up DOWhat, it's precious.
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 4:04 PM
"TWAT makes a this site hostile and unpleasant"
Not by himself (no, I don't mean me too).
"Underwasder obviously references under water, but how that relates to me is unexplained."
Over time, I have responded to the hostile environment that results from my bearish but polite comments about what I thought, and still think, were ridiculous and unsustainable Brooklyn home prices. Hence the return name-calling. But here's the kicker: I have fun with it.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 9, 2008 4:05 PM
"Why are you linking to an article about foreclosures in manhattan here on a thread about Brooklyn home sales?"
You don't agree that Brooklyn will get hit harder than Manhattan?
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 9, 2008 4:08 PM
Even DOW8000 misses the point of the article that he posts!!!!!
Now I'm sure he's the What.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 4:10 PM
moreteasir, I see where you're coming from, but I would hate to see DOWhat banned. I really would. He's the most unintentionally amusing character here. It's eerily coincidental how, under both logins, 98% of his posts are quoting other posters or a website. He should at least try to distinguish them more by something other than the fact he posts slightly more eloquently as DOW.
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 4:11 PM
Ahh, poor poor DOWhat, getting picked on and being called names in a hostile environment after posting his "polite comments". Someone please get him his soother and binkie.
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 4:14 PM
"Even DOW8000 misses the point of the article that he posts!!!!!
Now I'm sure he's the What."
He asked for my point, not the point of the article. My point happened to be inherent in the headline.
Nom I'm sure you've overpaidinbedstuy.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 9, 2008 4:16 PM
"Someone please get him his soother and binkie."
Please Oh please!
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 9, 2008 4:19 PM
Alright, back to work. Get with you guys later.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 9, 2008 4:20 PM
And do you really not know that there are already far more foreclosures in Brooklyn than in Manhattan. There are 93 in Manhattan....there are hundreds in Brooklyn.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 4:21 PM
DOW--I have noted that you are polite (for the most part) when you post, and I have refrained from calling you DOWhat for the last week or so, though by no means am I convinced that you are not the same person (I am giving you the benefit of the doubt). Any time you write something that doesn't include the phrase "I am in your head" or some other What-ism I attempt to answer with some form of decorum.
So whatever unpleasantness emanates from this site doesn't start with me.
Now to your points---Of course I think that Brooklyn will get hit harder than Manhattan in foreclosures. We have already gotten hit pretty hard and its likely to get worse before it gets better. Your article however told me nothing new and nothing that seemed particularly relevant to this discussion.
If you are "having fun" with names you could explain the derivation of your name for me. I would appreciate it.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 4:26 PM
Dave, I don't think you'll be getting a response. It seems he has to return to the gravel pit and we won't be hearing anything more until he slides down the dinosaur in an hour or so. Question is, who will he emerge as next...stay tuned!
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 4:26 PM
Biff...remember Brooke Lynn? we never heard from her more than but once!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 4:29 PM
Wasder, the handle is obvious, DowWhat believes the stock market is fairly valued when the Dow falls to 8000 and the S&P 500 falls to 800.
Except that the What earlier stated equities markets are for suckers, which should mean at any price.
Posted by: denton at September 9, 2008 4:33 PM
Denton--I know its obvious linguistically but if I am in a position where I am comfortably making payments to a house I plan to own for the long haul, how am I under water? I have nothing (I repeat nothing) currently invested in the stock market so that line of reasoning is out. I just want him to say it, especially since he's having so much fun with it.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 4:38 PM
"Question is, who will he emerge as next...stay tuned!"
I expect a Buckfast sighting pretty soon. Buckfast McWhatstein is What's nephew from Lodi.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 4:39 PM
wasder, I forgot all about Buckfast! That was a good one.
Dave, I do remember Brooke Lynne. I thought that handle was quite clever and wish she stuck around. Of course, the fact she was very complimentary didn't hurt :-)
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 4:47 PM
Yeah Biff...sorry about that. I made her up the day after I made up Bold type Guest. You were getting beat up psrticularly badly that day so i sent her to your rescue. Those were fun times back then!!!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at September 9, 2008 4:50 PM
That's ok, I strongly suspected it was you and appreciated the gesture. If memory serves, bxgrl almost got in a catfight with you over your praising me!!
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 9, 2008 4:58 PM
it's possible to be both bearish and civil at the same time - it's all a question of respect for the other side's arguments.
I am much more inclined to take What's position based upon what I believe is important in the world right now but I'd rather share a beer with the people taking the other side. You don't learn anything by just talking to people that agree with you all the time.
What's writing style is offensive to many, and that's probably why his views are summarily dismissed. Perhaps this is why the Dow persona was created (and apologies if you really are two different people).
Posted by: the chicken at September 9, 2008 5:02 PM
OOHHHH Assfucks, it's ya boy! Thanks Dow and the new names is very funny. Now I will take it from here, thanks.
I was thinking you dudes are so far gone! You don't realize we are in serious trouble but I will not waste any energy explaining it. I will love seeing the Bat smash you in your fucking faces.
U.S. Stocks Tumble as Lehman Brothers Rattles Banking System
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1P7Ag0fTWts&refer=home
"The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slumped 3.4 percent, its biggest drop since February 2007, a day after the government's bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sparked the biggest rally in a month. Lehman led financial shares to their steepest drop since July after talks to sell a stake to Korea Development Bank broke down. Massey Energy Co., Valero Energy Corp. and Freeport- McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. fell at least 9 percent.
"
The financial got ASSRAPED today and these are the institutions who lend money to Asshats (like you) to buy overpriced property. They are being taken to the wood shed.
"Investors should sell stocks following the rally as economies in the U.S. and Europe remain weak, Credit Suisse Group said. The rebound is unlikely to last because the U.S. housing decline will continue, while Europe and the U.K. are ``close to recession,'' Credit Suisse's London-based analysts including Andrew Garthwaite said in a report dated yesterday."
Translation: Dump your overpriced shit to the smart investor retards now! Get the fuck out of dodge!
You see Assfucks I think you are going to be crying in your beer come next month. That little Homo Rodeo ya'll got plan will be a very bad place for ya. Heh heh...
The What (Go fuck yourself)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 5:05 PM
Chicken--good points. There are several people here who are bearish and civil. I am neither bearish or bullish but rather somebody who is trying to make a house for himself in a challenging time and environment. I don't like getting threatened with sodomy for that so the What (and his associated sockpuppets) pisses me off. That being said, I would like to know what you mean by "I would rather take the What's position based on what I think is important in the world" means. Please explain if you wouldn't mind.
For me what is important in the world is to have a good lifestyle with my family. I am not in real estate as an investment but as a necessity. I try to see both sides of the story. I just happen to enjoy giving the massive TWAT a tweak from time to time.
Thanks for speaking up.
Posted by: wasder at September 9, 2008 5:24 PM
You have a point chicken, but the what frequently cuts and pastes nonsense. His inability to parse the data coming at him leds me (and perhaps many others) to believe he is a moron whose only field of knowledge is anal sex.
If you want to move the conversation in another direction, please feel free adn the rest will follow.
FYI, what: The UK and the Euro-zone are already in a recession and any investor who tells you to sell has a short position (s)he is hoping to make money from. For someone who thinks everyone is lying to him, you are rather naive to think CS has your best interest at heart.
Posted by: 11233 at September 9, 2008 5:35 PM
"I am neither bearish or bullish but rather somebody who is trying to make a house for himself in a challenging time and environment. "
GTFOOH! ROTMMFLMMFAO! You don't believe that shit? Do ya Underwasder! Come on baby you are trying to get in on the gravy train but I think it's the turd train!
"I don't like getting threatened with sodomy for that so the What (and his associated sockpuppets) pisses me off. "
Another knee slapper! Why Underwasder do you respond to me? I think I'm in your head. Yep I'm convinced of that!
"I am not in real estate as an investment but as a necessity."
Hey no prostate massaging in public! You are trying to be like the other underwater dumbfucks in the Mutant Asset Bubble. Underwasder has been powned owned pwned pwn noob pown own pooned pwnd beat pawned halo ownage pownage pwnage raped poon destroyed killed ownd p0wned defeated leet pwn3d !!!!!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 9, 2008 5:41 PM
thanks Wasder and 11233.
You are absolutely right - family and happiness are what is important. I work in the financial markets (small hedge fund) and I see a lot of wealthy people every day - but they are not happy. Going to work is a chore for them, they commute like zombies. They are overstressed, prematurely grey, and overweight from lack of exercise. These are people with 8, 9 or 10-digit bank accounts - wealthy enough to live out the rest of their days in paradise. That, to me, is a waste. I could make a quarter of what I earn and be just as happy to see my daughter playing on Manhattan Beach.
When I say "I am much more inclined to take What's position based upon what I believe is important in the world right now", I am referring to his view on house prices - ie they are going to come down hard.
The Fannie and Freddie bailouts were inevitable. The only reason the shares were trading above $1 (ballpark option value) is the lingering hope that the shareholders were still going to get a slice of the pie. Their bailout IS positive for houseprices, or at least not negative. What they are bad for though is the economy. My estimate is that the taxpayer will have to fund these entities to the tune of $1tn (that's 12 zeros) which will get added to the country's debt balance. So house prices won't fall as far as they might have done otherwise but America is in a significantly weaker position. However, lending standards will be tightened considerably meaning bigger deposits and lower loan multiples.
Next up, Lehman looks like it is going under. This is the country's fourth largest investment bank. Having seen what has happened to their share price, would you want to deal with them (as a counterparty)? Would a hedge fund want to have them as their prime broker? Banking is a confidence game and when that confidence is gone the game is over. This is exactly what happened with Bear Stearns and exactly what I think will happen to two other big-name investment banks (I won't name them. I've got short positions and I believe my thesis will come to fruition without any cheerleading on my part).
Finally, financial services represents a huge chunk of New York's economy. Slash that in half (or more) and you've got a dearth of buyers. To get a deal you need to have the buyer and the seller at the same price. The ball is in the seller's court - they don't HAVE to sell at any price. But eventually they will be forced to, either because they are moving away, or they can't meet their mortgage payments, or they can't refi at an affordable rate. The buyers are not coming back soon so the question is whether the sellers can afford to sit it out.
My opinion is that prices will approximately halve from here. I am in the market to buy but I want to get the nicest house for my money (I make good money and I don't think it's unreasonable for me to expect a very nice house for that). There's no point in me putting in offers now because sellers will just think I am insulting them so I'm renting for now until I can get my price. Other people won't want to do that - they want to buy now. They are happy to take the 10% off and they are the people that make the transaction marks on the way down.
Posted by: the chicken at September 9, 2008 6:24 PM
Just to also add that I used to work about 30 feet away from Garthwaite (29 feet if you measure from the edge of his hair). He's as pompous and opinionated as anything but he knows his stuff.
Posted by: the chicken at September 9, 2008 6:29 PM
Chicken: You make some valid points and I appreciate your comments.
One thing I am having a hard time understanding is this: How can houses be selling for the prices noted above (yes, back to the point of this post!) when the markets have been tightening for some time? How are these people getting the financing for this? Where is there money coming from? Didn't banks cut back on such loans months (a year) ago?
And if I can ask you some quesitons, just to better understand your position .....
What do you think it would take to bring a sense of stability in the housing market today? Specifically the Brooklyn brownstone market. (I think there are two markets right now - e.g. Park Slope and less affluent markets.) I know that some of the loose lending practices really did a number on several less affluent areas and it will take several years for these areas to get past the recent go-go period. The foreclosures and short sales will hurt prices there over the next few years. Your thoughts?
You say that housing prices will be half what they are today. What is your basis for this and do you think that this will be true for all of brownstone Brooklyn?
Are you looking in brownstone Brooklyn to buy? If so, what area(s) and why?
Any information you are willing to share would be greatly appreciated.
Posted by: 11233 at September 9, 2008 6:46 PM
Hey What:
>>"Investors should sell stocks following the rally as economies in the U.S. and Europe remain weak, Credit Suisse Group said. The rebound is unlikely to last because the U.S. housing decline will continue, while Europe and the U.K. are ``close to recession,'' Credit Suisse's London-based analysts including Andrew Garthwaite said in a report dated yesterday."
Translation: Dump your overpriced shit to the smart investor retards now! Get the fuck out of dodge!>>
Obviously, it's time to buy. When all the asshat Wall Street analysts (make that analists) tell you to sell, then it's time to buy.
Where was this dickhead a year ago? Was he telling everyone to sell? No, most likely he was telling everyone to buy! Same sh*t as the internet bubble. One day I have to post a photo of a sugar bowl I got at Fishes Eddie in the late 1990's... I keep it to remind me never to listen to overpaid Wall Street Asshats. It has a stock ticker on it... LU, 55.125... WCOM, 44-15/16... my fave, PMCS, 185.375. T, 51.625.
Remember those days? All the analists were saying BUY BUY BUY. Some of them are in jail today.
There are some smart people on Wall Street, but with the exception of GS, most of them are running their own money and don't have time to pontificate to various consumer finance websites.
Remember what the original investor said: The time to buy is when the blood is running in the streets. That time hasn't arrived in NYC RE, but it has arrived elsewhere. FNM investors who followed that were well rewarded today. I suspect LEH investors will be as well.
Posted by: denton at September 9, 2008 7:14 PM
sure thing.
"One thing I am having a hard time understanding is this: How can houses be selling for the prices noted above (yes, back to the point of this post!) when the markets have been tightening for some time? How are these people getting the financing for this? Where is there money coming from? Didn't banks cut back on such loans months (a year) ago?"
This was in the last point of my last post. Some people don't want to wait for the market - they don't want to rent. If you've just sold a manhattan condo for $1m, a $1.5m brownstone that you can get for $1.3m is not that much of a stretch. Prices aren't going to go from $2m to $1m in one step - there are going to be transaction marks all the way down.
"What do you think it would take to bring a sense of stability in the housing market today?"
When number of buyers equals number of sellers. For me, the most important figure to watch is the volume of transactions (I know it might seem counterintuitive but hear me out). If the seller is unwilling to go below $1m but no buyer is willing to go above $700k then no deal is done and no new mark can be made for the representative price. Buyers can't go up at the moment because of the lack of available funding so sellers are going to have to get realistic.
" Specifically the Brooklyn brownstone market. (I think there are two markets right now - e.g. Park Slope and less affluent markets.)"
I agree but as house prices went up, the relative difference between the good and less-good areas also went up. The difference in price between a Park Slope brownstone and a PLG brownstone is not just big, it's f-ing enormous. The $1m+ difference for what is essentially the same house is the same as an extra person in the house making $250k/year and maxxed out - that's just not normal. We only think it is because we've got used to it these past few years.
"I know that some of the loose lending practices really did a number on several less affluent areas and it will take several years for these areas to get past the recent go-go period. The foreclosures and short sales will hurt prices there over the next few years. Your thoughts?"
Foreclosures speed up the process but they don't ultimately change the fundamentals, unless the volume of the foreclosures themselves change the nature of the neighbourhood (like certain areas of Detroit).
"You say that housing prices will be half what they are today. What is your basis for this and do you think that this will be true for all of brownstone Brooklyn?"
That's only my opinion, and that's the only one that's mine to give. Some areas will come down more, some less but there are too many variables to factor in to be anything other than broad brush. Ultimately, how much can a family on average income afford to borrow responsibly? That's how I'm getting to half off.
"Are you looking in brownstone Brooklyn to buy? If so, what area(s) and why?"
I'm looking at Victorian Flatbush because I like the houses, I want to have a garage, I like the trees, etc. One man's drink is another's poison so you shouldn't read too much into what I like. I know the upkeep will be higher but I can afford it and I can justify it to myself.
What are your thoughts on the subject?
Posted by: the chicken at September 9, 2008 7:14 PM
You, DIBS??!!! That was you???? Omigod- I just sprayed my soda. Biff- I was trying to make you feel good, but I thought Brooke was for real.(I'll kill you, dave- if I ever find you ):-)
that was very funny....and she seemed so nice.
Posted by: bxgrl at September 9, 2008 7:43 PM
"Hey no prostate massaging in public!"
Damn, What. You made me wake up the baby.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at September 9, 2008 10:47 PM
chicken--I think you overstate the case by saying prices will come down half, but certainly we would all seem to be in agreement that prices still have a ways to fall. I guess I am one of your "transaction marks" but I don't mind. I got a good house at a good price and certainly benefited at least somewhat by the price cuts of the last year. I have a business that I will run out of one floor and with one tenant I will be in fine shape no matter what happens to prices (the beauty of a fixed mortgage).
What, this was easily your worst day ever. How can I be pwned if I can make my payments and I am enjoying my house.
DOW--you are in danger of me breaking my moratorium with your 10:47 post. You can't laugh at your own jokes.
Posted by: wasder at September 10, 2008 7:54 AM
no offence intended wasder. You've got a house that you like at a price that works for you - absolutely nothing wrong with that. More importantly, you seem like a fairly happy chap and money can't buy that.
Posted by: the chicken at September 10, 2008 8:19 AM
You've hit the nail on the head chicken--one cannot purchase (or time) happiness. This is the reason that the economic determinists on here have an overly simplified way of reading the situation. While we all agree that the underlying fundamentals in the market are weak right now, the ones who say that it is all a matter of time and logic that prices should come down by whatever percent don't take into consideration the personal circumstances of the buyers on the market. We all can't act in lockstep to force the market to do one thing or another. One person's transaction mark is another person's castle.
Posted by: wasder at September 10, 2008 9:25 AM
chicken: I just got into work and I need to get cracking, but I will come back at lunch time to give my response (unless I need a break and I will post sooner).
Thank you for your post and I reallly appreciate you responding.
I should be posting by 2 if you want to drop by later.
Posted by: 11233 at September 10, 2008 9:47 AM
If people are calling for The What being banned, then I call for Biff and Dave to be banned as well. They constantly fall for The What's bait, and always banter back and forth, adding nothing to most threads they are involved in. Enough is enough.
Posted by: A Guest at September 10, 2008 12:21 PM
A Guest:
1) I don't want DOWhat banned.
2) What exactly did you just add, or ever add, for that matter?
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 10, 2008 12:33 PM
I have to back up Biff here. He and Dave can be found all over this site using it in the manner that it is intended for: discussing Brooklyn real estate in a civilized manner. There is only one person (and his associated sockpuppets) who is causing the dischord here. You won't find anybody else needlessly insulting everyone and else.
Also, Biff is correct in saying that he has never called for the Twat to be banned.
Posted by: wasder at September 10, 2008 12:55 PM
"Prices aren't going to go from $2m to $1m in one step - there are going to be transaction marks all the way down."
Without a reason for this decline, other than your wish for cheaper housing, I don't understand why you think prices will decline by 50%. What economic/financial factors do you think are playing into this? Some price to earnings ratio? (Earnings = personal earnings, not ROI) I don't see that happening, as the prices above would attest. Yes, these sales are looking at the past and not the future, but I see more of a very slow - almost stagnant market at the high-end. Flippers and people who view real estate as purely an investment have been out of the market for some time IMHO. What we are left with is the normal course of buying and selling among people/families due to personal circumstance. This goes to your point about supply and demand. Unlike stocks, housing turns more slowly. Houses coming on the market now are due to personal reasons, move/death/divorce/kids. This will limit the supply more than the demand. I believe the demand for high-end housing is greater than supply. If buyers can't get a cheaper house in Park Slope (for example), they will start to look elsewhere within the boro.
"I agree but as house prices went up, the relative difference between the good and less-good areas also went up. The difference in price between a Park Slope brownstone and a PLG brownstone is not just big, it's f-ing enormous. The $1m+ difference for what is essentially the same house is the same as an extra person in the house making $250k/year and maxxed out - that's just not normal. We only think it is because we've got used to it these past few years."
I totally agree. However, I see the high-end market being stable (or weakening a bit) and the less affluent markets catching up slowly. I think the rise will come from people who are looking to move up to a house but are still priced out of Park Slope (for example). Other neighborhoods will improve in price and quality of life/services as the demand from these new buyers enters the market, slowly, over time.
Personal note, I chose Bed-Stuy over Clinton Hill (which I really like) because 1. I couldn't afford CH and 2. Bed-Stuy had the same housing stock and (I think) greater potential in the long-term for less than half the price. Although my purchase was not solely determined on potential for future appreciation, it played a big part. There is little reason, in my mind, for the price differential between the two neighborhoods. I can easily afford my house, make improvements and not be house poor. THat is an ideal situation, I think. I know that BS has a way to go to be CH, but I truly beleive it will get there.
I think I addressed your comment on half off.
As for your choice of a neighborhood, I think you have chosen a great area to look. If you get a wrap around porch, I will gladly share a drink with you on it. I'll bring the drinks.
Posted by: 11233 at September 10, 2008 12:56 PM
wasder, thanks for you comments. I think I'm usually pretty civilized. I was perhaps having a bit too much fun with DOWhat above, but c'est la vie. And I admit that I like to post some off topic comments when I feel like it, but I don't see a problem with trying to lighten things up occasionally with a one-liner here or there.
I never ever attack anyone for the first time unless I'm attacked first and I'm sincerely appreciative of many of the other posters here I've come to consider cyber pals, like you.
Posted by: Biff Champion at September 10, 2008 1:03 PM
11233--I was in the exact same boat and argued with my wife about buying in Bed Stuy before we settled on the house we did in Clinton Hill. For me knowing I will have no problems making my monthly payments was the first and foremost consideration. Buying a 600 or 700K house looked pretty appealing, especially when it was only a mile or so from Clinton Hill where I wanted to live. In the end being walking distance to the things that we as a family frequent was my wife's line in the sand and I don't blame her. I am lucky to have a professional circumstance that allows me to use a chunk of the house as my office and therefore the affordability aspect of the equation is taken care of. But interesting to hear someone else's deliberations on the same circumstance.
I completely agree with you about the personal nature of house sales that are outside of the speculator/flipper world and responded similarly to the chicken above. It is too simple to broad economic pressures as the sole determinant in house prices go. Life always goes on and many people will always want to own their own home.
Posted by: wasder at September 10, 2008 1:07 PM
No worries Biff. And check out the Twat's new "doomsday" marker in the the Weds links thread (you are mentioned).
Posted by: wasder at September 10, 2008 1:21 PM
"I never ever attack anyone for the first time unless I'm attacked first and I'm sincerely appreciative of many of the other posters here I've come to consider cyber pals, like you."
AAAWWWW is it that nice. Biff let Underwasder go first.
No problems guys. Hey could someone tell me about Lehmen today?
The What (Your lord and Master)
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at September 10, 2008 1:28 PM
Wasder: I think the days of flipping are over. We are back to a more normal maket - albeit with some credit restrictions. This is a major brake on how things used to work in the past few years, so I think it feels like it is worse than it really is. I am not denying that things are bad and some more people will suffer, but I think a lot of people got used to the go-go market of the 00's (naughties, I call them) that the real world of house buying and selling seems really weird to them. (Asking price is not the sale price people!) Expectations will need to be adjusted for all involved in the market - from banks to buyers to sellers to agents. That process is not done yet and other factors, like the absorbtion of write offs at the banks, foreclosures and a softening overall economy are blurring the issue for now.
I hope we can keep this kind of conversation going on this site. I think it is needed. I can do without the inane comments of a certain you-know-who.
Posted by: 11233 at September 10, 2008 1:28 PM
11233--Yes conversation that is reasonable and attempts to look at both sides of the story is quite necessary. Despite Twat's attempts to disrupt this process it generally works pretty well here. What I don't understand about TWAT's thought process is this--even if all the banks go under, the people who have bought the houses they have bought are not going anywhere. Clinton Hill, for better or for worse, is now occupied by a new generation of home owners who will be here whether he likes it or not. Especially if prices collapse and folks can't get what they want for their houses--all the more reason for people to hunker down for the long haul.
So, TWAT, in your mind what is going to happen to people like me when the banks all collapse? I have a mortgage I can afford and a house that I like. Why am I going anywhere?
Posted by: wasder at September 10, 2008 1:36 PM
Thanks for your comments 11233 and wasder.
I must admit personal bias since I don't own there yet but by acknowledging this I hope I'm able to limit bias in my analysis.
The days of flipping are behind us but how far behind us are they? I don't know where to get this data but it might be interesting to compare the number of transactions from the run up (less what could be considered the "normal" run-rate for house sales. ie those genuinely purchasing a family home) against the numbers sold since the peak. That might give an indication of the level of investor/flip property backlog.
11233 - the ratio I'm using is an affordability one. There are lots of factors that go into it but the main ones are; income, taxes, target savings ratio (both for deposit and for disposable income), interest rates, and repayment schedules. My estimate for the fall is based upon the real level, not the nominal. For example, if (through inflation) everybody made twice as much money as they do currently but house prices remained the same then that is a 50% fall in my books.
I'm not using this as a way to backtrack on my expectation - it is a real issue. My dad's first house cost him gbp2,000 and is now worth about gbp70,000 so that looks like some real appreciation (it was over a long time!). However, when he first bought the house he was making gbp15 a week (approximately a 2.5x multiple of annual gross income) and someone doing the equivalent job now makes about gbp15,000 pa so the same house is on a 4.7x multiple. The "appreciation" in value over time that I prefer to look at is not 70,000/2,000 (3,400%) but 4.7/2.5 (88% increase) - big difference!
The prices above are, in my opinion, transaction marks on the way down. If I am right then subsequent transactions for similar houses will keep coming down. If I'm not then they'll start going up (adjusted for the inflation factor described above).
The two of you have taken opposing sides to location v pricing decision. My first house was in an "up and coming" area of London - I got a lot more property for my money that way. My next house will be in a "nice" area of Brooklyn - because I don't want to move again. There's no right or wrong answer and it all comes down to personal circumstances.
11233 - it will have a wraparound porch and I will be taking you up on that drink. Might be 1-2 years though! ;)
Posted by: the chicken at September 10, 2008 3:30 PM
As much as it looks like we made opposite decisions in the location v pricing decision, I consider my decision a compromise between the two. Depending on where 11233 lives it could be within a mile from where I bought. Plus I bought the cheapest house in Clinton Hill that I saw anyway (or at least the cheapest one I could imagine living in), so price was definitely a big part of my consideration.
In re your analysis about prices, are you saying that if house prices remain flat over the next decade while real wages go up that you are considering this a price cut? I get how it is in real terms a price cut but just trying to make sure I understand where you are coming from. Because I suspect something like that might happen for the next few years in Brooklyn real estate.
Posted by: wasder at September 10, 2008 3:47 PM
The Chicken: I see where you are coming from now and I believe I understand your concept of price decline. This would assume that people have no equity to start with, i.e. they are not selling one property at a profit and using the net proceeds to move up the property ladder? If my understanding of your position is correct, then all of NYC is overpriced and needs some serious corrections.
I do think that there are a lot of people who liquidated one position to take a greater one. That might explain how we still have some huge prices on places in Park Slope. Now that the market has tightened, people will simply sit where they are until they get a sense of the market. I think it will take a life event (kids) for people to move from, say, a co-op to a house. And that house will probably not be in Park Slope.
It is interesting since I went from renting to owning an entire house, which I think is rather rare nowadays. As such, I had to use the same factors you are using for affordability. That is what made Bed-Stuy an option for me.
The more I think about our posts, the less I think your point of view is "off-the-wall". (Nothing personal about my initial impression.)
I am ready for that drink whenever you are.
Wasder: I live just outside the eastern edge of the Stuyvesant Heights historic district. I am around the corner from Dave. So when I tell you that his stoop needs some attention, I know of what I speak!
Posted by: 11233 at September 10, 2008 4:24 PM
Dave--you better work on that stoop!
11233--my new house is in the southeastern corner of Clinton Hill. Lewis Ave is probably no more than 1.2 miles from me.
Posted by: wasder at September 10, 2008 4:39 PM
@wasder 3:47, in theory yes. It's a question of the impact of nominal v inflationary pressures. Nominal is what you see in terms of the selling prices going down, inflationary is "stealthy" and creeps up on you.
I still think there is some way to go for nominal prices to go down. After that, I see prices stagnate while inflationary pressures kick in.
@11233. I spend most of my day thinking about this stuff - it's my job! Not to say that I'm right but I have the time to really think about it and get to the bottom of it,
Posted by: the chicken at September 10, 2008 5:06 PM
You guys are smoking some powerful shit! If we have a systemic failure in our Bankings system, you mean to tell me that wont effect you?! You mean to tell me that the prices of this Mutant Real Estate Bubble will hold up?!
How you seen the Commodities lately? Oil off 35% from June, Gold off 25% sine March and Natural Gas got killed this year! When the "Hot Money" leaves the set, asset prices all fall down.
The sad thing is that you believe that prices in the Mutant Asset Bubble are the norm. The Government has to back stop this mess to prevent a world wide collapse. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was just the beginning.
Welcome to The Great Depression 2. It's right in your faces but greed and delusion have you blind.....
The What
Someday this stupidity is gonna end...
Posted by: what at September 10, 2008 7:37 PM
You are, by far, the biggest idiot alive twhat.
Of course you have nothing constructive to add to the conversation.
And now you think the price of oil declining is the end of everything. When the price was rising you said people were driving less and it was destroying the economy. You don't even remember what you said.
What medication are you on? I think the general public and the FDA need to know so we can all be warned and begin the process of a worldwide recall.
Posted by: 11233 at September 10, 2008 11:41 PM
Twat, to give your post more thought than it deserves, I would reiterate my question from earlier in this thread. If all of this doom and gloom comes to pass and we are in fact in Depression 2, why would that make us leave the homes we have bought? Yes it would be a drag, and yes the value of people's homes will have collapsed but folks still have to live somewhere. So despite your cackling you will still have us as neighbors. So what is the point of your ranting? To make everyone feel worse about the situation, plain and simple. Nice gig you have carved out for yourself.
Posted by: wasder at September 11, 2008 8:25 AM
And it would seem that prices collapsing would actually make it even more likely that people would hunker down and not sell given the fact that they won't get the price they need to break even. So we are here to stay dumbass>
Posted by: wasder at September 11, 2008 8:29 AM

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