« Bird Blog: Week 13 Open House Picks »
August 8, 2008
Auction Time for 306 St. James Place
At the same public auction where 82 Cambridge is coming on the block, 306 St. James Place will also go to the highest bidder. This one's not looking quite so cheap though. According to the flier, the opening bid for the four-story, two-family house is $1,400,000. It's probably still a good deal at that price, judging from the one interior photo, but we doubt it'll end up going for a whole lot more.
Public Sale 8/13/08 [NYC.gov - PDF] GMAP P*Shark
82 Cambridge Place Coming Up For Auction [Brownstoner]
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Comments
"opening bid...$1,400,000...a good deal at that price"
ROTFLMMAO!!!
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at August 8, 2008 1:27 PM
DOW8000SP800 you have to consider the source...
Brownstoner is trying to keep the comps up.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end..
Posted by: what at August 8, 2008 1:32 PM
"but we doubt it'll end up going for a whole lot more."
Stoner are you outta your Freaking mind? I walk past that house every day and it needs a gut job. Thats like another 200-300K to add to your asking price. Not to mention your not even within the Historic distric and you have to endure 6 months of dealing with a contractor. Funk that!!! I'll pass. The house would be worth the headache for the right price, I say about 700K MAX.
Posted by: Wick_or_Stuy at August 8, 2008 1:41 PM
"700K MAX"
2001. That's where we're headed. Unfortunately, the "slow-motion train wreck" is on the express track and won't be making any stops there. Destination 1930's.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at August 8, 2008 1:49 PM
one odd thing to consider - for the coops at 101 lafayette and 207 ocean parkway, the opening bid price is higher for both buildings than any apartment in the line has sold for, by about 10k, including sales from less than 1 year ago ...(at least from what I can tell from propshark)
Posted by: lalaland at August 8, 2008 1:52 PM
Who wants to bet that DOW8000 is a sockpuppet of the What?
Posted by: wasder at August 8, 2008 1:56 PM
"Who wants to bet that DOW8000 is a sockpuppet of the What?"
Ok wasder now you get one comment out of me. I know you been jerking off for me to answer you. Not everyone is in fucking Bubbleland. There are some people that understand the dynamics of a Mutant Asset Bubble! Dow800 is looking at things from another prospective!
Whats up with you wasder? you like a little fucking dog, humping on my leg, geez...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at August 8, 2008 2:04 PM
I'd say not a good deal at all! What happens if the opening bid isn't even made?
I'd guess $1MM or slightly less might be in the ballpark given the location and renovation needed...
Posted by: tinarina at August 8, 2008 2:10 PM
"Who wants to bet that DOW8000 is a sockpuppet of the What?"
It's a better bet than 306 St. James.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at August 8, 2008 2:37 PM
I ain't seeing $1.4 M for a 19 footer in that location as a foreclosure. I would say $1.2 max depending on the relative state of disrepair inside.
Posted by: FatLenny at August 8, 2008 2:41 PM
850 - 900 K
Posted by: Dora Chica at August 8, 2008 2:44 PM
"Who wants to bet that DOW8000 is a sockpuppet of the What?"
It's a better bet than 306 St. James.
As your other personality would say "take the bet."
What--this is what is up with me. I, and other people here, have acknowledged that there are elements of truth to your predictions of economic disaster and have asked you to engage in a discussion about it. For instance, I am one of the "asshats" in the process of buying a house in a neighborhood (Asshat Hill) that is the target of many of your rants. I have asked several times for an honest answer to the question "if it is such a bad idea to buy a house in Brooklyn, what should I do?" Where should I go? I get pissed off when you throw your bombs out there and then don't respond when people try to take you seriously. It is lame beyond belief to threaten people, cackle at their potential doom, demean them and then refuse to engage when they try to talk to you. This makes you a royal asshole. Inventing a version of yourself that purports to speak reasonable English doesn't make you any less of an asshole.
Posted by: wasder at August 8, 2008 3:01 PM
Seeing as DOW uses "ROTFLMMAO!!!" which is only used by 15 year old girls and the what? he must be the sock puppet.
Posted by: dittoburg at August 8, 2008 3:21 PM
Ditto--there is a lot of similarities between the themes, punctuation, and language of the Twat and DOW.
Posted by: wasder at August 8, 2008 3:24 PM
I wish people would stop obsessing over the what, I'm beginning to think he taps into some sort of personal insecurity of some posters, I don't get his power over some of you. I just skip over his postings, they are repetitive and boring.
This house is a real opportunity for someone to buy at a cearance sale price. It is roomy and attractive and the street has come a long way over the past ten years. I say it will go for 1.1, at that price the owner can spend say 400,000 to rehab to exactly suit their tastes and needs.
Nokilissa, hint hint.
Posted by: sam at August 8, 2008 3:47 PM
Mr B while I respect your opinions and all the work you put into this blogg I have to say you've got this one completely WRONG. How is $1.4 million for a gut job in that location a good deal? I mean there are gut jobs in better locations that sell for less and are not even in foreclosure. For example 226 Cumberland is in far nicer location and needs just about the same amount of work but priced @ $1.29 without takers for 6 months. This has got to be one of those posts that wasn't thought out or researched @ all. Sorry to seem harsh but Mr. B I've come to expect better from you!
Posted by: pierre de taille at August 8, 2008 4:11 PM
Fair enough Sam. There is no doubt that the What taps into insecurities for me and I have no problem admitting that. For a long time on here I would say a similar thing--ignore him and he will go away. But somehow I got converted into the "hunt the What" camp. Maybe I am too sensitive, maybe its because my wife and I are about to have our second child and are buying a house right in the middle of Asshat Hill, but the What's disregard for the well-being of everyone else pisses me off and it is more satisfying to hunt and ridicule him than to let him rule the roost.
Posted by: wasder at August 8, 2008 4:26 PM
Sam - you mean the obvious insecurity you demonstrated on the HOTD thread about Park Slope?
Posted by: dittoburg at August 8, 2008 4:27 PM
ditto,
I expressed insecurity of some kind about Park Slope??
Huh?
Park Slope is super. Windsor Terrace on the other hand is the boonies. sorry, that's my world view and I'm sticking with it.
Posted by: sam at August 8, 2008 5:00 PM
It's hard to tell whether this price is achievable without knowing what sort of work it will require. There are certainly comps for places within one block that needed significant work that sold above $1.4MM in the last year, but again, we don't the condition inside this place.
Posted by: 1842 at August 8, 2008 5:02 PM
No, you didn't say Park Slope was super. There was a discussion about WT and you denigrated WT saying how it was second choice for PS. Self-awareness of insecurity helps overcome it.
Posted by: dittoburg at August 8, 2008 5:10 PM
You guys are right. That's what happens when we blog from the beach!
Posted by: brownstoner at August 8, 2008 5:54 PM
"I have asked several times for an honest answer to the question 'if it is such a bad idea to buy a house in Brooklyn, what should I do?' Where should I go?"
Since I'm What's alter ego:
Unless you liken a home to a luxury vehicle, don't buy at a prevailing price near the top of the biggest housing bubble you are ever likely to experience in your lifetime. Understand inflation. Understand that no matter what happens nominally, you are unlikely to EVER see a near-top purchase price again, in your lifetime, in real terms. You cannot win unless you get an incredible deal.
If you don't own, keep renting. If you do own and just want to trade up, cash out and rent (it's not too late to take profits, is it?). You're only a family of three with one on the way. You can stick it out for a few more years in a 2 or 3 BR apartment or for how ever long it takes.
Stay in cash and treasuries. The commodity markets are too risky (too many bubbles) and the security market is on life support (what's my name?). However, do be on the lookout for an alternative fuels and/or drilling rally (future bubble to take advantage of) as the DOW approaches 800 (2003, not too long ago!). Rates are gonna go up but not at a greater rate than home prices go down (more cash down on a cheaper house will factor out higher mortgage rates). The dollar is gonna go up.
Or do what I'm doing. I have a wife and kid myself. We're doing all of the above but are also lowballing half off asks/comps. Although early to realistically expect results, you'd be suprised at the follow-up attention I get from brokers.
Bottom line: Follow the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for NY Metro. Many will tell you it's irrelevant to brownstone Brooklyn (it's only resales of SFH's) but if you study the numbers available on the website, you'll find them to be consistent with the uptick in brownstone values (+200%). Relevant on the way up, relevant on the way down. My buy signal will be either when an owner hits my lowball or when the rate of this index gets back in the "green" and stays there for at least a year. I could be wrong but I am quite confident that I am right.
Keep your eye on that Case-Shiller index.
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at August 8, 2008 6:05 PM
Dow:
Extremely sage advice. We're looking to trade up, and our money guy told us to sell within the next six months (we're in PS) and rent for a few, putting our dollaz elsewhere.
Posted by: Luce at August 8, 2008 6:52 PM
Dowhat: This is getting so intriguing. I love getting an answer from the What in such reasonable terms. Thusly we shall be able to have dialogue.
I don't think I bought for "prevailing price" for Clinton Hill, as we got the house for about 250G under its original ask, but still for me its a super big purchase, big enough to make me question myself sometimes. But I love the house, I need the space, I love my neighborhood, and because I can work from home and deduct, it makes my monthly nut quite doable--cheaper on a monthly basis from the two bedroom I am moving from. This is the factor that all the economic raving in the world can't trump--people in NYC with families still gotta live somewhere. I am not moving to the burbs, there's just no question. So this is what I do, and I don't always (rarely in fact) appreciate being harangued because I am trying to establish a nice domestic situation for my family.
See what happens DoWhat when you play nice? You can actually have conversation. I like this persona much better. I must admit I never fully bought the street/ghetto personality. Anyway, thanks for actually discussing something.
Posted by: wasder at August 8, 2008 9:31 PM
Despite how much you originally paid and what you sell it for, the profit margin isn't as great as some people think. Who really keeps track of the upkeep of a home: repairs, landscaping, fuel, insurance, taxes (though in Brooklyn it's peanuts), upgrades, etc. and factors that into the final selling price? Very few. So no one buying a house today is going to see the price double in 7 years. Buy because you want to live there for a while and it's not going to break you. I live in upstate NY and buying a property on the Hudson river for under 200K. I downsized my car for fuel efficiency and that almost pays for itself, I look at every expense and see where I can make a change. I don't count on real estate as my future despite owning several income producing rental properties. Buy with your head not over it.
Posted by: Iknow at August 8, 2008 9:59 PM
It's definitely not the time to buy right now no matter what the hypsters on here are touting. Circumstances over the past 5-8 years are what made these house prices what they are today, and those circumstances will never come around again. Sub prime, alt-a, interest only, no documentation loans, etc. When any unemployed hick could buy a house for no money down, cash back at closing, "guarantee of rising prices", etc, then sellers were able to get just about whatever they wanted, appraisers were inflating values, banks were taking their fees and selling to secondary markets, and brokers were making a bundle. As long as those conditions remained intact, there was no end to the bubble. My house in Williamsburg was worth 100K in the late 90's, and I thought that that was high then. Then when the free money started flowing, prices went higher and higher and higher with no end in sight. Now that those conditions are over, and the money is frozen except for people who actually can pay it back, there aren't that many people out there looking to move in for a few months and flip out since doubtful they could flip, and banks realize that and realize that since the buyer is actually going to have to live there for 30 years, they are finally sanefully only lending money to people who have jobs and can pay it back. In the normal history of US housing, 2-3% per year has been a normal gain. That means my house that was worth 100K 10 years ago should be worth about 130K now. Maybe a little more simply because of growth of the city. Heck even say 200K would be a high realistic amount. However, it now appraises at 1.5 million. If it were to be destroyed by fire tonight, it would cost me maybe 150K to rebuild. So is the lot really worth 1.35 million? Hardly. People who believe we can never return to 10 year ago prices are delusional. When the bricks and mortar replacement price is still in the 150-300K range, we can certainly fall back to nearly that amount no matter what part of the city we live in. Now that people are losing jobs, bonuses are drying up, the cost of electricity, heating gas/oil, water, food, and transportation (car or MTA) are rising astronomically, people cannot make their 5000-10000 mortgages, even if they have 5 families living with them like a tenement. Realistically, real estate classes and history will tell you people can truly only afford 28-36% of their income for housing. Any more than that and you're living on the edge that can break out from under you at any time. That is what we are starting to see. When there are thousands of houses going to auction, and only tens of buyers qualified and able to buy, supply and demand will work its magic. There is no way I would pay these prices right now if I were looking to buy. Any price on here should be divided by four to be at a normal inflation rate. Houses in East New York, Brownsville, and Queens going to half a million? Insane. back when my house was worth 100K, not even 10 years ago, houses in those areas were around 30-50K. We can and will return to normalcy. There aren't that many people whose 36% could pay for these prices. And for those of you who bought into this hype and paid these kinds of prices, may God bless you with the next 30 years of health and gainful employment. Have you really thought about what would happen if you lost your job for a couple months? It's not like you can turn around and sell it for a profit anymore and walk away. I'm glad my house is paid for.
Posted by: wburghipstersaredirty at August 8, 2008 11:55 PM
And before people on here start the "no one buying these brownstones were using those types of loans" think again. Yes they were - at the start of the bubble until the prices went over what they could get that kind of money for. There were prices all over Brooklyn 8 years ago that were normal for the city (and yes much higher than the rest of the country a that time even then but at least normal). The idea became that if an overpriced yet loan obtainable ENY (just for example - nothing against ENY but historically it's been a cheaper area) house could bring 200K then surely my WT, PLG, PS, etc house must surely be double that, triple, that, etc. and appraisers were thinking that too. Then that ENY house would flip for 250K because those buyers were using those alternate type loans knowing they could also flip when the money ran out, so then my XX neighborhood house just went to 500K, and so on and so on. The higher priced neighborhoods just kept getting doubly higher as the lower priced neighborhoods also elevated. It had nothing to do with real value of the bricks and mortar or because people were moving here from Ohio.
Posted by: wburghipstersaredirty at August 9, 2008 12:13 AM
there are 2 factors for the astronomical rise in prices.
1. the what's mutant real estate bubble.
2. the fact that people want to live in NYC again.
Clearly, #1 is over. However, people want to stay in NYC and will pay for the privilege. So long as that's true, NYC is in a much better position that nearly everywhere else in the country. Of course, budget crises, a decaying subway system and rising crime will ruin the party entirely....
Posted by: slick at August 9, 2008 3:04 AM
wburghipstersaredirty nicely put. I remember starting off in RE and you could buy a 2 family house in ENY for 90,000. Today that house goes for 550,000. Dig this to the Asshats you just wrote: Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah. Look at this!
"there are 2 factors for the astronomical rise in prices.
1. the what's mutant real estate bubble.
2. the fact that people want to live in NYC again."
The factor was "Hot Money" and now thats gone.
Thank you wburghipstersaredirty.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at August 9, 2008 5:07 AM
I think we all agree that irresponsible lending and hot money would be happily banished to the past.
What, now that you have been outed as DOWhat, how does it feel?
Posted by: wasder at August 9, 2008 8:44 AM
Was der anyway I could have resisted my temptation to buy at the top?
Posted by: DOW8000SP800 at August 9, 2008 10:57 AM
"Was der anyway I could have resisted my temptation to buy at the top?"
I like this new What. Going back forth between identities, making puns.
I thought a lot about whether this was the right move for my family, and I also don't think I bought at the top. But there is little doubt that whatever I paid, it is likely to be worth less in a year or two. The questions are what will the neighborhood be like during this time when property values decline, and what will it be worth in two decades when I sell. Because of my professional situation though I don't think I bought over my head.
Posted by: wasder at August 9, 2008 12:08 PM
wburghipstersaredirty's analysis is quite good, except for one thing: there is no city in the world that has long term appreciation as high as 2% over inflation. Shiller has charts if you want empirical evidence. At that rate, the city would rapidly become unaffordable to its residents, far more expensive than its neighbors and lose its attractiveness.
Long run, housing prices track construction costs, which track inflation, not more.
In NYC, medium run, the city has become more attractive than it used to be (although the same is true of most of its competitor cities). Brooklyn has also become more attractive relative to Manhattan than it used to be. Both of these could sustain some secular price increase.
The improvement in NYC quality of life should be reflected in rents -- and indeed, Brooklyn rents are closer to Manhattan, and higher than Westchester, than they used to be.
Rents are far less susceptible to bubbles and funny finance than sales prices. No one pays higher rent today because they think they'll be able to flip the apartment tomorrow. And rents can't go up much faster than incomes for long or you run out of renters.
NYC housing is readily converted from one to the other. So long as sales prices are higher than rental values, rentals will convert to single family owner occupied. So long as sales prices are above the cost of construction, more stuff will be built.
So comparing rents to sale prices is a good way to filter out the bubble and see only the real improvement in the neighborhoods. If you are trying to figure out what is most likely to happen to prices in the future, your best bet is to assume that sales prices will drop until they meet rental values and construction costs.
Wasder says he is paying less for his house than he did in rent. If the two places are more or less equivalent, and if he is including the opportunity cost on his downpayment as a cost, then that's a pretty good sign that he paid a fair price.
Posted by: FinanceGuy at August 9, 2008 5:57 PM
I am saying that with the income I will make from converting one floor of the house to a professional space for me and renting one floor to a tenant (we will live in 2 floors) I am paying less per month than the two bedroom co-op I am moving from. That is all I am saying.
I wouldn't mind being briefed on the concept of the opportunity cost.
Posted by: wasder at August 9, 2008 9:15 PM
My concern is are you really going to be happy being forced to share your house with a business (even if it is you) and a tenant just to make the mortgage every month, day in day out, for the next 30 years? I mean it all looks good at first, and then a couple years into deadbeat tenants not hacing rent money because they are laid off, bringing their noisy party friends over (which you cannot deny because they are actually allowed to by law since they have part of your property leasehold rights by paying rent right), NYC tenant laws, having to claim income on your taxes and pay self employment stuff just because you are having to let someone else share your house to make the bills. It can really get to you, especially if you are really stuck being dependent on that extra income in order to get by. I wouldn't want to share my house with other strangers every day for the next 30 years just so I could squeeze into 2 small floors. But thats just me. To each his own. Something to think about though. Have you ever been a landlord in a pro-tenant state before?
Posted by: wburghipstersaredirty at August 9, 2008 11:11 PM
My business is not one that will stress the house physically in any way so I am not concerned about that. That leaves a one bedroom garden rental to find a tenant for. Also, given that 30 year mortgage payments never change but rents keep going up, it is my assumption that in some point in the next decade or so we will be able to occupy three floors and just rent one.
And anyway, its a done deal so its all academic at this point. Good points though. In re 2 small floors 1600 square feet of living space, four bedrooms and two bathrooms sounds pretty good to me right now after never having more than 800 square feet to live in. Its all a matter of perspective.
Posted by: wasder at August 9, 2008 11:53 PM
wasder:
You should stop reading this site in regards to buying or owning real estate in Brooklyn. Brownstoner is populated with do nothing own nothing posters. These sour-grape posters are too stunted by anxiety to have bought anything in the past. These sour grapes fools were complaining in 1995 that a brown stone in park slope cost $350,000.00 now they are complaining it cost $1.5M+ they will still be living in there 500sqft studio complaining when a brown stone in park slope cost 5.5M+.
wasder:
Buy the house you need and don’t be side tracked by sour-grape posters who don’t have a pot to piss in.
Posted by: mark swiss at August 10, 2008 10:02 AM
Thanks Mark! I have already bought the house. Haven't moved in yet. There are valid points to what some folks are saying here. I have been reading up on opportunity costs for instance and that has been a helpful way to look at the issues. In this light my decision looks better to me in that there are a number of positive, non-monetary benefits of working out of my home.
Posted by: wasder at August 10, 2008 10:12 AM
I agree with Mr. Swiss. Some posters have a particular point of view they wish to promote and they are posting their propaganda rather than participating in a rational exchange of ideas. Also their language and personal attacks have made this site much less fun to read. I'm not sure if they are trying to singlehandedly move the market for homes in Brooklyn or they are just 'sour grapes fools' as suggested above, but their posts are not worth reading. Also, many people start off with money tight between the mortgage and renovation costs, but guess what, rents go up over time, mortgages get paid down, you can take advantage of lower interest rates to refinance if necessary and particularly if you have outside employment which provides a reliable income you will make out quite well. We did and so did our neighbors. I don't know or anyone on our block who lost a house to anything but divorce.
Posted by: mimi at August 11, 2008 12:04 AM
"Buy the house you need and don’t be side tracked by sour-grape posters who don’t have a pot to piss in."
"rents go up over time, mortgages get paid down, you can take advantage of lower interest rates to refinance if necessary and particularly if you have outside employment which provides a reliable income you will make out quite well. We did and so did our neighbors. I don't know or anyone on our block who lost a house to anything but divorce."
I hope you Asshats take that bet. I willing to bet you will wind up in the Famous Asshole Quote page!
BTW While you are snoozing the Federal Budget Deficient is around 462 Billion dollars! What does this mean? This means Government borrowing costs are going to skyrocket. And guess what again? The Ten Year treasury yield is tired to the 30 year mortgage rate.
To Wasder: This the only time you a quote out of me.
"Thanks Mark! I have already bought the house. Haven't moved in yet. There are valid points to what some folks are saying here. "
I know why you have a hard on for me now. I am shiting all over your "Dream". First you said you was "looking" in Asshats Hill and now you are saying you brought something, OK I wont go into if you are telling the truth.
Do you think I have something to say Wasder? Is my analysis flawed, crazy or nuts? My theories are based on historical examples, mainly The Great Depression! Don't look at the messenger just listen to the message!
Save you time replying, I will not respond.....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
You Asshats you can call me "sour Grapes" all you want but very soon the Fucktards are going to run out of Ammo.
Posted by: what at August 11, 2008 12:23 AM
I have always said that there were grains of truth in what you were saying, but that you were hysterically over-reacting and vindictively and senselessly targeting people who are only trying to live a peaceable life in the city. For reasons you have neglected to elaborate on you hate me and anyone like (whatever that is--that's the funny thing you know nothing about me but pretend like you do). It makes what you say leave the realm of slightly hysterically doomersterism and squarely into the terrain of "asshole who shits on everyone else for enjoyment" a particularly cruel invention of the internet. You would appear to be a bitter, lonely, soul-starved, hollow shell of an asshole.
When you write as DOW8000 as least you can engage with people reasonably. Whoever or whatever you are it is either performance art (which I would at least be able to appreciate) or a really fucked up excuse for a human being.
Posted by: wasder at August 11, 2008 1:01 AM
12:33am
“I hope you Asshats take that bet”
Why do you care what bets the “Asshats” take?
If you are right just sit back and enjoy the show.
But your view "The Great Depressionis" is analogous to not living life because you know you will die one day.
Do us all a solid, be generous, live your life and die happy and leave the “Asshats” to the “Asshats”
Posted by: mark swiss at August 11, 2008 9:49 AM
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