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June 3, 2008
Report: Investment Sales Mostly Hanging In There
Property Shark recently released its first-quarter investment sales report for 2008, and the numbers for Brooklyn show a market that's certainly seen better days but isn't completely tanking. The report tracked the sales of two-, three-, four-, and five-or-more family dwellings/mixed-use properties (so no condos, co-ops or other commercial/industrial buildings). Basically, the worst trend in Brooklyn—and this was true for all the boroughs—is shown in the graph above: There was a 37 percent drop in the number of sales as compared to the first three months of 2007. In fact, every borough did worse than Brooklyn on this score, with Manhattan posting a 49 percent year-over-year decline in sales volume. The median price per square foot and median sale price on investment properties in Brooklyn didn't change much in recent months or over the past year. The median price per square in the first quarter this year was $237, down 3.6 percent from the same period in 2007, and the median sale price was $665,000, up 2.3 percent from the first quarter in '07. The only big drops in median prices between 2008 and 2007 were seen in transactions involving large (4-family and bigger) properties. It'd be interesting to know the extent to which big-ticket brownstone sales are keeping us (barely) afloat.
First-Quarter 2008 Investment Sales Report [Property Shark]
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Comments
Market remains resiliant if a bit slower.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 9:52 AM
these numbers look very good to me. It is a positive sign if we are not in negative territory. This is NYC and i think we will be fine folks.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 9:52 AM
The actual numbers broken out by category are quite interesting. Although the number of transactions is down between 20-42%, price per sq. ft. is holding up quite well, off only -0.81% and -11.01% year-over-year. This certainly indicates the value that still exists in Brooklyn properties at $129 - $269 per sq. ft. These numbers can't be argued with. The median sales price numbers do however become less and less useful as the number of sales and hence, the representative sample declines.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 3, 2008 10:07 AM
look again - the graph depicts total number of investment sales (so the scale doesn't go negative) but if you look at the the year over year numbers - they are negative
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 10:09 AM
strange that the price per square foot is down but the average sale price is higher. i think gaby is right in that maybe those big ticket brownstone sales are keeping the borough afloat.
could you argue that this is a reflection of the fact that the rich are getting richer, while everyone else is getting poorer? i don't think this apparent reflection is that tenuous. what do you think?
Posted by: cgriggs at June 3, 2008 10:20 AM
Once again, I understand how this is a political year and it is in the best interest of Democrats (I must assume Gabby is a dem, due to the pessimistic view in the posting) to continue the party line that we are doomed economically, but let's look at the actual facts once again. last quarter of 2007 GDP was +0.6% (slow, but postitive), first quarter GDP 2008 +0.9% (again slow, but POSITIVE). most economists say that the worst appears to be over and the "subprime meltdown" has been digested and written off in the past year by wall street. Another fact, unemployment remains stubbornly low, despite Democratic talking points about how we are all out of work 4.9%, and on average lower in this decade than in the 90's, 80's or 70's.
Now, I'm appealing to the legions of Democrats and Liberals out there who continue to harp on the economic doom scenario. Take just a single minute of your time to consider these facts and ask yourselves this simple question: Sure there are problematic factors like gas prices and financial sector problems , there have always been problems in one sector or another, is it possible that more of this economic pessimism that is rampant, is more a function of the dispicable division in American politics, than actual economic armageddon?
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 10:23 AM
Dear Super Republican poster 10:23
Please tell your line of obvious partisan BS to the MILLIONS of Americans whom have lost their homes and entire life savings, and jobs and healthcare.
Yeah - the Republicans did a great job - of wiping out our country.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 10:45 AM
Yeah, that's the spirit 10:23...pour gasoline in the form of a political discussion on an already contentious real estate discussion...Love it!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 3, 2008 10:49 AM
" last quarter of 2007 GDP was +0.6% (slow, but postitive), first quarter GDP 2008 +0.9% (again slow, but POSITIVE)"
If you beLIEve that crap! Asshaters and Assets we are in a recession. One thing people dont look at is SALES VOLUME!! Sales volume has fallen off a cliff. The data here is for 3 months ago and I know April and May was horrible!
BTW The "Spring selling season" is over. I know we are in free fall and you better hope the comps hold up!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at June 3, 2008 10:53 AM
10:23 and 10:45...perfect example of both extremes!!!
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 3, 2008 10:59 AM
There are three figures - two don't seem to bad - the price per square foot and the median sale price both held up quite well. However, sales are down 37% in Brooklyn. Why? I think the fact that sales were down 37% is very bad news. I can think of three reasons to explain the lower sales figure.
1. Less Demand - it's harder to get a mortgage; people are more fearful of investing their money in real estate; or people no longer have the money because of the weakening economy.
2. Wait and See - perhaps buyers are biding their time waiting for the market to fall and sellers are holding on waiting for the market to recover.
3. There is less supply because for some reason, all of sudden, sellers have decided to hold onto their properties.
Most likely it's a combination of 1 and 2. Considering that this city will shed 60,000 of the most high paying jobs over the next 12 months, and those 60,000 finance jobs loses will lead to job losses in other high profit sectors such as law, sellers who are waiting for the market to recover will start to realize they better sell now. Then, when prices start coming down the sellers will be in even a greater rush to sell, buyers will be more likely to wait and bid lowball offers. Just like rising prices in any market eventually creates an irrational dynamic where people will overbid to jump on the bandwagon, the reverse effect has now begun and will continue for some time. This kind of market psychology does not change overnight and once it takes hold, it's hard to change.
Posted by: Brooklynnative at June 3, 2008 10:59 AM
"Yeah - the Republicans did a great job - of wiping out our country."
This one of the biggest lies out there! Greed and Delusion wipe out this country. The junior Donald Trumps and Warren Buffets thought easy money was "Easy". Now our financial future is in the toilet for years to come! How many people you think can afford some of the crap out there. The Oro, Forte and mega mutant condo's out there, HUH??!!
I can't wait for this Fall. I will be the one break dancing!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tyxlaib9UF0
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at June 3, 2008 11:06 AM
Hey What, I see your back from your interview tour after the New York Magazine article about you. What did you think of that article?
Posted by: Brooklynnative at June 3, 2008 11:11 AM
How long before "Sell now or be stuck with this property forever!" replaces "Buy now or be priced out forever!" as the new broker battle cry?
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 11:11 AM
Anyone know what the historical annual sales volume numbers are for different property types? Sales volume has fallen because it has been above the mean for some time now. I think we are trending toward a sales volume which is closer to the historic average and more sustainable. A sustainable market place is better for both the short- and long-term value of assets.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 11:13 AM
"these numbers look very good to me. It is a positive sign if we are not in negative territory."
Uh, the chart lists sales, not change in sales. It goes from 0 to 2500. There is no such thing as a "negative" sale. You need to look at the slope of the line if you wish to determine market trends.
What would be interesting to see, actually, is # of properties on the market v. # of sales. Since prices have been stable, I would guess the # of properties on the market must be declining or the sellers are being very patient.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 11:16 AM
it's always somebody else's fault, the republicans, or the commies, or the floridians.
the very rich are richer than ever.
the rest of us are struggling and not about to buy pricey real estate. the market therefore is shrinking. not in price for the most expensive properties but in depth and breadth.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 11:18 AM
11:13 is right on the money!
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 11:29 AM
11:18 - what a theory - the market is shrinking because YOU are not buying.
Hmm - I am buying and buying more than I ever have. I think that there are massive deals out there and there has never been more upside and less competition to buy.
I like that there are a lot of people out there like you. Please send me your rent check on time.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 11:29 AM
yadda, yadda, asshats, yadda..yadda...electric boogaloo...Yadda, Jay-z
-The fake what
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 11:37 AM
here we go again,
so our country is "wiped out", lol. I live here in nyc, as I have all my life, I have yet to see a "wipe out" even in the dark days of the 70's here in NYC we weren't "wiped out" whatever that means. now as far as being an "extremist", I have to laugh again, now I am an extremist because I state some facts in this feast of pure reason. This is the typical left wing for you folks^^^^^, read it and weep. I simply asked you to consider the facts as they are, and I am hit with everything from conspiracy theories to the "wiped out" country to the all too predictable unsupported assertions about how everything from apples to zebras are worse than ever.
Let's talk health care, since one of you brought it up. I have stated here before, we are not in a healthcare crisis at all, we are in a political atmosphere in which we are told that there is a crisis. The fact remains, we are living longer more prosperous lives than ever before, and I mean as a WHOLE, not as a single elite few, not as a semi-socialized northern european small country of 5 million. I mean the largest group of disparate, heterogeneous, multi-social, multi-cultural people in history. Is there a healthcare crisis? I mean, do we have a sudden epidemic of health problems not being addressed? or is it that you folks have been told that the government owes you more and more and even more, and you have become so accustomed to the victimization role that you actually feel entitled to having everything and more. And don't even start about the "poor", the poor have medicaid. they are covered, the middle class have a choice; get health coverage through an employer, buy it or open a health savings account, move up the ladder or down, that's what the extensive freedoms of this nation allow. the current health plans are on sliding scales, so you CAN afford them, I know, I have one, most people just don't want to PAY for them.
Just don't expect everything for free, we have seen socialism around the world, and it does not work, go to Cuba, it's third world. Got to china, they finally figured it out,they are going towards a free market, as are most of the prosperous 1st world nations. you want everything free? check out Chavez's Venezuela or Ahmedinajaad's Iraq, your only sacrifice will be your free will.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 11:37 AM
"Hey What, I see your back from your interview tour after the New York Magazine article about you. What did you think of that article?"
No much because I'm not in it for the glory. This Mutant Real Estate Asset Bubble is a thing that I loathe. The easy credit schemes, The Asshats, The JR Trumps, Greedy and Delusion people and other BS that I forgot.
But you homeboy The What sees light at the end of the tunnel. High energy prices, rocking foreclosure rates. massive lay offs on Wall Street and Spiking crime are stating to kill this bubble.
The debt slaves are staring to feel those flagpoles. LMMFAO!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end....
Posted by: what at June 3, 2008 11:38 AM
11:16
You should check out charts of "total inventory," "price reductions" and "contracts signed/new listings" on Noah Rosenblatt's Urbandigs website (urbandigs.com). While the data is for Manhattan I think it is safe to conclude Brooklyn market is functioning in a generally similar fashion.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 11:39 AM
11:39,
Thanks for the suggestion. That was interesting.
Does he archive data beyond 30 days? I looked for a bit but couldn't find the numbers from 6 months or 1 year ago, which would also be interesting.
11:16
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 12:56 PM
As long as you take your meds, What, crime won't be spiking.
Did you check in with your parole officer today, What?
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 1:15 PM
I really hate the flag waving and strains of "America the beautiful" in the background when conservatives disagree with anyone not conservative. The choice here is not be grateful, or get out and live in Iran, Cuba, etc. That's ridiculous, demeaning, and not an argument. There are changes needed in this country, and advocating those changes does not make someless less of a citizen, and wrapping yourself in the flag does not make you a better citizen.
Health insurance is a huge expense for those whose jobs don't offer it, for the self employed or people who work several part time jobs where they are ineligible - just some of the scenarios at play here for the uninsured. There are millions of uninsured people in this country. To grandly state that people just won't pay for it because they want everything free is ignorant.
Posted by: Montrose Morris at June 3, 2008 1:19 PM
11:16
I believe he pulls data from Streeteasy. Click on "Timerange" varibles at top of charts. I think he has it organized in 1-month, 3-mth and 6-mth subsets. Some of the data has yet to be updated to the present. You can see Streeteasy real time data on rightside of page just under his mug shot.
11:39
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 1:19 PM
Montrose Morris,
Am I really "waving the flag" for pointing out that our nation is not the root of all evil as some would have us believe? I don't discredit those who believe there are problems, I discredit those who believe that there have never been problems before and now ascribe everything from "our nation's wipeout" to hemorrhoids to the current Republican administration, despite the clear evidence that there we are not that bad off, again I refer you to the actual facts about a recession, that is, we are NOT in one.
About healthcare. I work in healthcare everyday. I work with the poor, every day. I have been poor, now I am not. Sure I had many talents that I used to succeed, but so do most of us. Those that don't are helped, those that have the talents God gave them and choose to wallow in their own victimization, get no sympathy from me. Here's another secret, most people go through their lives, for the most part, without health issues. Most people from 5-50 have no health issues, in fact.
That's my philosophy, and guess what? I'm backed up by most people and at least three compendiums of historical knowledge that still survive: The Old Testament, the New Testament and the Koran. And yes, I dared to mention God with a capital G. And Country with a capital C.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 2:51 PM
2:51...WOW.....getting way too heavy or way too deep for a thread that's supposed to be about the Propertyshark Investment Properties Report.
You're not going to find any investment information in the Old testament, the New Testament or the Koran. Try Graham & Dodd as a starter.
Amen. Halleluja. Love It or Leave It. Live Free or Die. But Low, Sell High. Price Up, Yield Down.
Posted by: daveinbedstuy at June 3, 2008 3:04 PM
Pssst: we can get it for you wholesale (buy in bulk- look how much we saved with just an ark) :-)
Posted by: bxgrl at June 3, 2008 4:13 PM
2:51- I would have to say with your attitude about health care in this country you're exactly the kind of person who shouldn't be working in it, or with the poor. Maybe you've forgotten what it was like? It's all too easy to say people can afford health insurance but they're too cheap. what kind? Because the cheapest kind is not near enough if you get sick. You make some pretty out there statements- since you seem to think you have an insider's view, why don't you prove it- where are the stats on a statement like: "Here's another secret, most people go through their lives, for the most part, without health issues. Most people from 5-50 have no health issues, in fact."
and "That's my philosophy, and guess what? I'm backed up by most people"
You're telling us you're in on the secret- prove it with some facts.
Posted by: bxgrl at June 3, 2008 4:46 PM
bxgrl,
Here are the self-evident facts you asked for:
Incidence of Heart disease in age group 5-50 about 1%
Incidence of Diabetes in age group 5-50
about 2%
Incidence of Cancer in age group 5-50
about .5%
Check out the NIH website.
Do the math. Try some objectivity for once, not anecdotal drivel.
Sure I work in healthcare, that doesn't mean am mother Theresa, it means I help those in need. Which means only about 2% of us.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 5:17 PM
In that case tell me where those stats come from and may I also point out that the huge age spread kinda skews the statistics. How many 5 year olds, as opposed to mature adults, have heart disease?
Sadly, I'm no Mother Theresa either, but on the other hand the only one using "anecdotal drivel" in their posts seems to be you. Not to mention, for someone who refers to the 3 great holy books, isn't there something about rich men and the Kingdom of Heaven? You can't pick and choose your bible lessons (yes, G-d helps those who help themselves but there are quite a few lessons about compassion as well - "am I my brother's keeper?" and do unto others)
Posted by: bxgrl at June 3, 2008 5:27 PM
This is not one of those "Elders of Zion Protocol"-type posts, but I'm wondering how the brooklyn numbers are affected by the number of Hasidim buying up properties? My understanding of this is hazy, but don't many Hasidim have access to funds within their community that allow them to buy -- thereby avoiding the credit crunch affecting other potential investors? I won't go so far as to say "private banking system," since that makes me sound like a conspiracy-theorizing wing nut, but I thought I heard that somewhere.
Anecdotally, at least, I know that there are a good number of properties that have been bought in Clinton Hill and Fort Greene as investment properties by Hasidim, and tons in Bed-Stuy.
Just wonderin'.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 7:09 PM
Hasidim are intensely community oriented, and unfortunately sometimes to the point of insular but it has always been a part of Jewish society to take care of its own (and also engage in general good works) so yes, I believe they pool resources to invest and to use for the general good of the community. whether or not they will or are suffering from the credit crunch is hard to know but since they are invested in so much real estate, it has to have some impact. I don't know that you would call it a private banking system, but maybe pooling resources for community use functions like one in reality.
It's also interesting that a number of other emigrant groups also pool their resources and it allows those who couldn't afford to buy homes or start businesses to do so.
Posted by: bxgrl at June 3, 2008 7:31 PM
bxqrl,
In response to your comments; are my stats anecdotal? I thought the definition of anecdotal was: that which is based on personal experience. The data I gave you was not anecdotal but empirical, that is, based on hard evidence and the scientific method. You obviously confuse the two.
As far as the biblical references: you prove my point: Cane's response to
God upon his inquiry about his brother Abel, was "Am I my brother's keeper?", this has been interpreted by theologians as part of the seminal change in man's relation to God, from the polytheistic "man as puppet" concept to the Judiac "man questioning his place in god's world" concept. In other words, Kane ,for all his shortcomings, was in effect asserting man's own role in his destiny within God's world as opposed to being relegated to the role of pawn in a larger play.
God helps those who help themselves is another concept that I'm all about. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day, teach him to use a fishing pole and you feed him for life.
As far as the rich man getting into heaven and the camel through the eye of the needle, I never claimed to be "rich", only not poor. and besides, you obviously have preconceived notions about money and those that have it, it is only a means to an end after all. the sooner you realize that the sooner you will reach true enlightenment and stop advocating more entitlements.
At least the Hassidim have learned their lessons well, their ancestors wrote the old testament after all, they seem to be actively involved in their own futures.
Posted by: guest at June 3, 2008 10:18 PM
Well, 10:18- if you understood what I was saying, I did not say your stats were
anecdotal, but I was using your own words to reflect a lot of generalities you spouted.
As for your stats- as any statistician would point out, it's all in the interpretation of
the numbers and as any accountant can tell you, the numbers can be skewed. frankly i wouldn't trust any statistics that any agency under the Bush Administration puts out because even the scientific agencies have been politicized (as they have publically and vehemently protested). So again- your stats reflect only what you want to say- c'mon- a heart disease spread from 5-50? How about the stats from 30 - 80? that's much more accurate and you know it so cut the smoke and mirrors.
As far as my enlightenment, (although you'll dispute this because you think you know me so well) I don't believe in entitlements but I do believe in extending helping hands to those who need it.If your idea of "true enlightenment" means my comprehension of what money does, not only are you in error as to my understanding, but you have a very poor comprehension of what true enlightenment refers to.
One last note, since you claim to know the bible so well. it's Cain, NOT Cane (the
plant)or Kane (the canceled Jimmy Smits TV soap)-your interpretation had me in stitches. In fact Cain is asking G-d is he supposed to be responsible for his brother, and
G-d is saying yes. It is not the the polytheistic man as puppet crap (jeez- what new age book did you get that out of- and please do not tell me you channeled Martin Buber,Martin Luther, or Occam). You don't even know how to spell Cain correctly, and I'm supposed to take your interpretation of the Old Testament seriously? You have no comprehension of the basis of Judaism, which is "do unto others as you would have others do unto you." You have little to no understanding of the teachings of Christ and I won't even think about what you don't know about the Koran. It's about social responsibility but if you would like a further cultural/anthropological treatise on why that is an important concept even in today's world, get a degree in it like I did.
Posted by: bxgrl at June 4, 2008 12:52 AM
PS- you might also take a look at articles in today's Times and Washington Post if you think the economy is not in trouble and the editorial about the Bush Administration and how it manipulated scientific findings. So the fact that you got a few numbers from the NIH site doesn't really prove much.
Posted by: bxgrl at June 4, 2008 7:35 AM
lol,
so typical of a left winger, they always try to discredit opposing views on emotional entreaties instead of factual ones. thus the spell check polemic bxgrl attempts to pass off as having some semblance of credibility. Cane, Kane or Cain, if you want to get technical, I'm sure they weren't written in English originally so any modern English interpretation is pretty much valid, wouldn't you say?
For a theology major you must have missed a few semesters if you think the basis of judaism is the Golden rule, not even jews would say that. As far as religious philosophers, I've read plenty from Maimonides to Kant and Kierkegaard (spell check )with a little Woody Allen thrown in.
One thing is for sure, you seem to have little grasp on the nature of religion outside your own little leftist leanings. Hint, the world is much bigger and harder and religions are not always about finding easy feel good solutions. Some religions are quite harsh in fact.
In typical lib fashion , you discredit any facts that you disagree with as questionable. funny how we heard nothing of voter disenfranchisment in the last elections of 2006 (which dems largely won), but whenever dems lose big time, it must be fraud. think about it. really. think about it.
You seem to fancy yourself an intellectual but you seem more like a garden variety leftist with a grudge against the "establishment" because you never had the cajones to go out and actually achieve. Like most academics.
Here's a clue, Republicans are not evil incarnate, begin your journey to enlightenment by understanding that true wisdom begins by understanding how little you actually know.
PS. You spelled "publically" WRONG. lol, lol
it's spelled PUBLICLY....you silly liberal. That was your first lesson.
Posted by: guest at June 4, 2008 9:43 PM
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