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June 16, 2008

Quote of the Day

So the lesson I learned today is that in my early and late 20s, I should not experience all the city has to offer (nightlife, dinner, culture ie things that cost money) in order to buy an overpriced, depreciating asset. Then, ideally, I should procreate and bring my spawn to the bars/restaurants with me so I'll be the old dude with a kid. Then what exactly is the point of living in NYC if you don't experience it? I would have a much easier time sitting at home on Saturday nights if I lived in Smithtown, Long Island - rents are a whole heck of a lot cheaper too..
— from Not-So-Bitter Renters Embrace Brooklyn

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Smithtown rocks!

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 3:14 PM

Not sure if you're referring to an apartment as a "depreciating asset," but if you are, apartments aren't like cars. They typically go up in value if you hold on to them long enough.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 3:23 PM

I thought the idea was to be better than Curbed, not to emulate it?

Posted by: Karka at June 16, 2008 3:25 PM

Gabby...how can you know that this is the "quote of the day" when the day is far from over?

Posted by: Bold type guest at June 16, 2008 3:26 PM

Meta Meta Meta!!

Comments on a comment from another thread!

[brzzziiieeeep] ... brain fizzles.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 3:37 PM

buying a multi-million dollar house in far from perfect condition in one of the far-from-perfect neighborhoods often featured here does strike one as perhaps not the best financial decision. Brooklyn rocked when it was cheap. maybe it will rock again soon.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 3:42 PM

I dont make enough to buy a place for 200k.

RENTING IT IS!

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 3:48 PM

people are commenting on a quote from comments about an article that you qouted from someoneone else. I hope nymag or curbed picks this up for others to comment on

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 3:50 PM

I agree. It seems like it's the wannabe buyers who are bitter, not the young renters.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 3:50 PM

It's anyone's call as to whether or not new york city real estate prices will go up or go down in the near term, but a couple hundred years of history suggests that it will go up again over the long term.

On the certain side is that your rent will increase over time and if you're not rent controlled/stabilized, it is certain that it will go up signiciantly. I rented for 18 years and and found that my rent was on pace to double every 10 years.

Owning is more expensive in the early years of a purchase (i.e. first 5 years or so), but the cost of owning will remaind stable over time (if you have a fixed rate mortgage of course).

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 3:54 PM

Its called embracing middle class values and sacrifice. Something America once stood for.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 3:56 PM

"Quote of the Day"

Lets see if I can add something to this post, let's go..

The posts of the Pretentious fart-smelling Smug-fuck elitist Asshats is making me sick! The Pratt Crime thing was a knee-slapper! 236 posts huh....

The price of energy has gone thru the roof and the Asshats are asleep behind the wheel. Why you ask? Heating season is around the corner, dumbasses. The 08-09 winter season is/will be a nightmare! The average cost to heat your Brownstone will be about 700- 1000 a month. Gas and Oil will be very expensive this winter! Plus pray to GOD there are no Hurricanes around. Just one Katrina will send a barrel of Oil to 200.00! I don't think you (Asshats) understand the gravity of this situation.

The amount of Condo's going online now, Oh shit! They are STILL building Condo's everywhere! Now tell me that demand will absorb the excess inventory, yeah right!

The Mortgage and Bond markets are imploding right now! The rates on a 30 year is around 6.40% and they are going up. This will have a devastating effect on the market! Will The FED taking crap securities, the Asshat Taxpayer will have to fund the bail out!

Last but not lease. I know you Asshats have not thought about about the heath of Barack Obama! If something "happens" to him before election day, the Ghetto will ignite into the 60's. Every Asshat will be the target of the Hood's fury and the property values will fucking plummet! Be very very careful! We are living is some "Strange Days"

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: what at June 16, 2008 4:00 PM

this is hilarious. i do think that there's probably a compromise that runs like - buy a place with a really low monthly in a no where area that is still close enough to go out all the time.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 4:26 PM

The What is not correct about 30 year T-Bond rates which are 4.8% not 6.4%. Contrast that with rates of 8%-9% back in 1987-2001 when the NYC real estate market was the weakest I've seen.

1977, 7.75
1978, 8.49
1979, 9.28
1980, 11.27
1981, 13.45
1982, 12.76
1983, 11.18
1984, 12.41
1985, 10.79
1986, 7.78
1987, 8.59
1988, 8.96
1989, 8.45
1990, 8.61
1991, 8.14
1992, 7.67
1993, 6.59
1994, 7.37
1995, 6.88
1996, 6.71
1997, 6.61
1998, 5.58
1999, 5.87
2000, 5.94
2001, 5.49
2002, 5.43
2003, ND
2004, ND
2005, ND
2006, 4.91
2007, 4.84

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 4:27 PM

Brownstoner that was super wack. We dont bite in Brooklyn.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 4:34 PM

To the What,

30 year rates are not 6.4% they are about 4.8% which is historically low.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 4:35 PM

"Its called embracing middle class values and sacrifice. Something America once stood for."

Yes, America once stood for the protestant work ethic that proposed that hard work was a good in and of itself regardless of the return. Thank the nonexistent god that we figured out what crap that idea was. If someone in their 20s wants to spend the money they work hard to earn, let them enjoy it. If you enjoy congratulating yourself on your "sacrifice" go ahead with your self-flagellation.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 4:38 PM

Jesus, that is about the worst written sentence I've ever read (all posts by the what excluded, of course). That gets quote of the day?

Posted by: FatLenny at June 16, 2008 4:40 PM

"On the certain side is that your rent will increase over time and if you're not rent controlled/stabilized, it is certain that it will go up significantly. I rented for 18 years and found that my rent was on pace to double every 10 years".

Not 100% true. I lived in a non stabilized building in Carroll Gardens for 13 years. My initial rent was $1000, and I had only two increases and the rent was only $1200.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 4:42 PM

"The What is not correct about 30 year T-Bond rates which are 4.8% not 6.4%. Contrast that with rates of 8%-9% back in 1987-2001 when the NYC real estate market was the weakest I've seen."

Come on down! You are the next contestant on the "Asshat is right"

There is a thing called a "Spread", Ok good... The Spread between 10 year Bond and the 30, 15 Mortgage rate has gone up.. Why you ask, Asshat? Because there is more RISK involved!

Lookie here, Stupid--> http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

The 10 year is at 4.27% and the 30 Mortgage is at 6.30% That's 203 Basis points higher. This Spread is going to blow out pretty soon, around this Fall. I think after the Olympics the Chinese are going to start dumping their Debt on the Market (1.7 Trillion). This going to get good......

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: what at June 16, 2008 4:54 PM

That's not "The What". It's the fake "what".

Posted by: kuroko at June 16, 2008 5:03 PM

Hey What, so there was no spread back in 1987-2001?

By historical standards, mortgage rates are still low.

When I was looking to buy a house in 1999-2000, I was looking at 30 year rates of close to 8% vs. the 6.4% rate you're talking about today.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 5:14 PM

Folks, the point is inflation is going through the roof.

Rates WILL rise, it is only a question of when.

With the coming collapse of Lehman Brothers, the bankers and the lawyers who served them will soon be making much less money.

Residential real estate is almost entirely driven by income and interest rates. When income declines and rates rise, sales prices necessary get lower.

While some would like to believe Helicopter Ben is going to go Weimar on us, it just can't happen. Hyperinflation would indeed help New York City and the bankster class, but it would destroy the rest of the country and ultimately result in a deflationary spiral that would affect everything, not just national housing prices.

In short - there is no hope for Wall Street. Now is not the time to take on the risk of a mortgage. Wait a year or two at least and wait for some signals as to how things are going to move forward. If you really want to buy real estate - get some farmland. That was the best performing real estate asset over the past year.

Posted by: Polemicist at June 16, 2008 5:32 PM

Wow, this "quote of the day" ranks as the dumbest comment ever on brownstoner, and regular readers know that is no small feat.

"So the lesson I learned today is that in my early and late 20s, I should not experience all the city has to offer (nightlife, dinner, culture ie things that cost money) in order to buy an overpriced, depreciating asset."

This is not an "either/or" thing. Most people sacrifice when saving for the down payment and then enjoy life thereafter. They, my friend, have the best of both worlds, and to say that their asset is depreciating is downright ignorant. I've owned my apartment for four years and it has increased in value by 35%. If I were a flipper, I might concede your point, but those of us who are in it for the long haul know that we will come out ahead. Unless you can show me a NYC property that was worth more 30 years ago than it is today, you have no case.

I'll never understand the people who somehow think that having the privelege of paying $20,000 a year towards their landlord's mortage is more intelligent than sacrificing in order to own a home.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 5:58 PM

Interest rates can't really go up, because if they do no one will be able to afford to get a mortgage, therefore no one will be able to sell, therefore housing prices will plummet.

However, since we have already have inflationary pressure on pretty much every other sector of the economy...

I have no idea what will happen, but I think it will be rocky.

Posted by: Heather at June 16, 2008 6:08 PM

Wow Polemicist! Did you ass get zapped on the road to Damascus?

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: what at June 16, 2008 7:13 PM

I'm new to this site, so forgive me, but this doomsday clown posting as if he knows something that the rest of us don't, strikes me as a typical chickenlittle poseur, without the balls to stake a claim on any real estate whatsoever. Instead he opts to make grand proclamations punctuated by ass noises.
Thank you to the other poster who puts out the actual data without the emphasis on sphincter dialogue.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 8:10 PM

The Fed wants rates to rise to curb inflation. They are not going to shock the system with a huge rate increase.

Polemicist: Don't you think there will be lawyers and bankers who will make money in this down market? Anyone who deals with bankruptcies should see an increase in the business.

As for the rest, they will find jobs in other companies. I don't think you are going to find lawyers and bankers begging on the street any time some soon.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 8:35 PM

Welcome to Brownstoner, 8:10. If you ever need the background on the What, just put it out there and we can all chime in.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 9:06 PM

wall street education 101:

Bear: a broker/banker/speculator/investor who has an overall negative view on the economy.

shortselling: usually done by bears who count on making money as the market turns downward. they sell shares today at a good price, knowing or betting that the price will be lower tomorrow (when they actually have to deliver the shares). So if they sell 10 shares at a hundred dollars a share today they pick up 1000 dollars, but knowing they will get to buy those shares to be delivered tomorrow at 50 dollars a share, they only have to spend 500 dollars. thus walking off with a 500 dollar profit betting on a stock falling. Now multiply that by a billion with these hedge fund investors and large scale fund managers and you see how people are making money with a good or a bad economy.
So don't be so sure about these folks who tell you we are doomed and there will be only negativity in the coming economy. if they actually believed what they said they would be buying into bearish hedge funds and making a killing instead of whining from mommy's basement.

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 9:16 PM

my instinct is that there is political pressure not to raise interest rates until after elections.

On another note, as incendiary as the what tends to be, he's probably right about what would happen if something happens to obama.

Posted by: slick at June 16, 2008 9:36 PM

8:35

Not like it was. No one wants the help of New York based bankers - they have swindled people, institutions, and more importantly governments, out of huge amounts of money. New York paper is now pretty much worthless.

Now, will the local neighborhood lawyers make some money filing personal bankruptcies? Sure. Divorce attorneys too.

Will the mergers and acquisitions partner at the white shoe firm pull in $1MM? I'd say, probably not.

Will investment bankers get multi-million dollar bonuses for selling liar's paper? Definitely not.

Anyway, check out this article:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/stephen-king/stephen-king-we-must-be-cruel-to-be-kind-to-save-the-world-from-a-longerterm-headache-847923.html

Posted by: Polemicist at June 16, 2008 10:00 PM

is it wrong to say that i love "the what"? at times laugh at it, and others agree with it, but you all know you dont ignore its posts.

a. can b.stoner organize a happyhour, in p.slope of course, so we can meet eachother and the stars of this site?

b. i propose a "the what" thread of the week where it gets to be the starter of the topic/thread.

goldie

Posted by: guest at June 16, 2008 10:26 PM

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

The PPI for finished goods increased 1.4% in May, a 17% annualized rate. Finished goods are up over 7% this year.

Posted by: Polemicist at June 17, 2008 10:05 AM

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June 16, 2008

Quote of the Day

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