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June 5, 2008
Condo Filings Down But Definitely Not Out
While there appears to be an overall downward trend in co-op and condo offering plans filed with the state, production still remains relatively high here despite worsening market conditions. Offering plans are required to sell condos or co-ops, including in a conversion. According to information provided by the Attorney General's office, since 2004 Brooklyn developers have filed 1,393 offering plans for 28,499 units. Since the start of the year until mid-May, 28 offering plans for 1,771 units were filed. We asked a few developers what they think about the numbers. They predicted production would soon plummet as developers hesitate to add more condos or co-ops to an already saturated market, especially in places where it's uncertain if prices will hold. Also, they said recent numbers are likely higher than they would be without the new 421-a law, which after June 30 requires developers to include affordable housing within their buildings to receive tax exemptions. While an offering plan is not required to receive 421-a benefits, some developers do their paperwork all at once (most file during construction) and are racing to get everything in before that deadline, said Justin Stern, principal of Manatus Development Group. From the figures above it's apparent Manhattan has already experienced its prime this market cycle, but recent figures are still higher than in Brooklyn: Since the start of the year, 57 plans for 2,403 units in Manhattan were filed. Hear more from developers after the jump...
The developers we spoke to all had basically the same assessment of the numbers, and 421-a, not a favorite among the bunch, figured prominently. Marshall Sohne, developer of a number of projects along Columbia Street, said the tax exemption is more likely to weigh heavily on Brooklyn market-rate buyers than those in Manhattan. Despite being upper or upper-middle class, Sohne said those buyers still watch their finances closely. Condos coming on the market without the tax exemption would have a much tougher time competing with the tens of thousands that do, a significant portion of which would still be sharing the market with taxed units. He also thinks developers will choose to hold off on projects rather than go rental. "The yeilds from the rentals are usually much lower than for a condominium," not making the project worth the effort in many places, he said. Justin Stern, principal of Manatus Development Group, which has worked on inclusionary housing projects like 15 Quincy Street and 91 Carlton Avenue, agreed. He added, "The reasons for less apps are definitely related to the downturn in market conditions and lenders' hesitence/ unwillingness to finance for-sale product ... This is, and I expect will continue to be, a very difficult time of change, the likes of which NYC has not seen in the past 15-plus years."
421-a Revamp: A Lose-Lose Proposition? [Brownstoner]
Developer of Affordable Housing Faces New Challenge [NY Times]
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Comments
That is actually good news. Why would we want more condos being built. The City would end up with a oversupply like Vegas, FL, Arizona and the rest. We do not have any land like those states but still.
Posted by: guest at June 4, 2008 9:41 AM
People dont realize there is only so much property in prime areas mainly lets focus on Prime Brooklyn (Dumbo, B-Heights, BH,CH, CG, Park Slope, Fort Greene and Billy Burg)...
Apartments that are selling for around $600k and under will also have a demand just because people want to live in these areas. Yes deals will be more negotiable and maybe some incentives but overall I dont see a crash that everyone is projecting...And lending standards will start to get easier. I see a problem with the highend stuff from 1.2 - 4mill but mainly under a million people will always want...
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 9:46 AM
Wasn't this posted yesterday?
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 9:48 AM
Want is want; demand is want plus ability to pay.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 9:55 AM
Uh oh - "The What's" doomsday scenario isnt happening yet - $125 oil, housing prices facing the biggest decline in history, credit crunch, inflation and yet.......unemployment still below 6%, productivity is up and today retail sales were reported to be better then expected in May.
No one is predicting Goldilocks anytime soon but with each passing day "The What" is losing credibility. Heck even the attempt to create a new panic at Lehman Bros failed.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 9:57 AM
Guest at 9:57 - The What has been predicting doomsday for years. I remember his postings from almost ayear ago where he would say - "Oh Monday is going to be fun! Get ready for the next Black Monday. US Markets are going to collapse any day now,we are a 3rd world country in a few weeks, etc." Each time would pass without incident and life would go on as usuall.
He is not a credible source and never has been. He is an interesting character with an extreme point of view that should be taken as exactly that.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 10:18 AM
last quarter GDP 2007 positive 0.6%
first quarter GDP 2008 positive 0.9%
worker productivity up
unemployment 4.9%
it may not be 1999 but it ain't 1933 either.
what's more, iraq is becoming a self sustaining nation. fending off an iranian led uprising in Basra earlier this year. Iraq's own forces routed the shiite upstarts from under ol Mookie (who continues to hide under a burka somewhere in Iran).
Obama will have to do a world class spinning job to downplay the hyperbole that has been a hallmark of Democrats these days.
Legion
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 11:04 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell unexpectedly last week to the lowest level since mid-April, a government report said Thursday, raising optimism that the sluggish economy may skirt a recession.
Hmmm...no recession??? I thought we were going into a DEPRESSION, according to the What??
I'm confused!
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 11:05 AM
NEW YORK (AP) -- Consumers stepped up their shopping in May after tax rebate checks hit mailboxes, giving many of the nation's retailers stronger than expected sales for the month.
OH NO!!! MORE GOOD NEWS!!!
The What is an idiot.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 11:07 AM
"what's more, iraq is becoming a self sustaining nation"
Complete lie. Iraq is totally dependent on the United States, Mr. Bush.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 11:17 AM
"Uh oh - "The What's" doomsday scenario isnt happening yet - $125 oil, housing prices facing the biggest decline in history, credit crunch, inflation and yet.......unemployment still below 6%, productivity is up and today retail sales were reported to be better then expected in May.
No one is predicting Goldilocks anytime soon but with each passing day "The What" is losing credibility. Heck even the attempt to create a new panic at Lehman Bros failed."
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Mark Twain
"NEW YORK (AP) -- Consumers stepped up their shopping in May after tax rebate checks hit mailboxes, giving many of the nation's retailers stronger than expected sales for the month."
Ok Asshats I'll bite.. I know you want to beLIEve the BS the government spits out. You see the only way the government can pay off it's debt is to inflate the money supply. You inflate the value of the debt bit you rob the spending power if your citizens (CONsumers).
Lets take a look, shall we... The American CONsumer is impacted by the high cost of energy, food and debt service. After this there is no more money for Discretionary spending. This greatly impacts other sectors of the economy. He is a example of this is here..
Continental Will Ground 67 Jets, Eliminate 3,000 Jobs
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agR7OAEUpy_M&refer=home
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Continental Airlines Inc. will cut 3,000 jobs and shrink its jet fleet by 18 percent, becoming the fourth major U.S. carrier to slash payrolls and flights as soaring fuel prices push the industry to its worst losses since Sept. 11.
You see I know you want to beLIEve that we are doing fine but that is not the case. Clothing Stores, Restaurants and Travel are laying people off..
Now here is the real kick on the head. Central Banks around the world are jawboning about raising interest rates. Why you ask? Because the little lie is that Central Banks do not set rate policy, the BOND MARKET does! I bet this fall there will be a crash in the Bond market and it will impact of people that need credit. No more free money to Asshats...
Trichet Says ECB May Consider Raising Rates in July
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aa244p5z2utk&refer=home
Now they're shifting their stance as demand from China and other emerging economies drive oil and food prices higher
So if you think Te What is crazy the, please go out and buy a Condo! Go out and buy a house, don't pay attention to me. I think you got it "all figured out"
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
BTW Quaker Oats 42oz used to cost 2.19 about a year ago, its 4.99 now. Rally on!
Posted by: what at June 5, 2008 11:59 AM
I bought Quaker Oats 42oz at Keyfood on 7th Avenue in Park Slope about a week and a half ago.
$2.99
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 12:03 PM
"I bought Quaker Oats 42oz at Keyfood on 7th Avenue in Park Slope about a week and a half ago.
$2.99"
Met food Fulton St.
BTW Asshats food prices are higher in Minority Neighborhoods!! But I think some of you are slow to see that. Plus I will put money on that statement. I didn't have time to go 5th Ave in the Slope....
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at June 5, 2008 12:13 PM
I built a house out of quaker oats but couldn't make the payments on the piggyback so the bank foreclosed, ended up eating it and now have no place to live
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 12:14 PM
Really, What...all retailers are laying off people...???
****
*Wal-Mart said same-store sales rose 3.9 percent, while analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial predicted a 1.6 percent rise. Including fuel sales, same-store sales rose 4.4 percent.
*TJX Cos., which operates discount apparel and home furnishing stores including T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, said same-store sales rose 2 percent, edging higher than the 1.8 percent analysts expected.
*Upscale department-store operator Nordstrom Inc. reported a 10.9 percent increase in same-store sales, while analysts predicted a smaller 8.1 percent rise.
*Aeropostale Inc. was the best performer in the teen segment, with a 6 percent rise, meeting analyst expectations, helped by positive reaction to its summer merchandise.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 12:15 PM
Huuu Dogie! I found this little diddy.. This is coming from the mouth of largest homebuilder in America.. Don't take The What's word, read it and weep....
Toll Bros. CEO: Housing in 'depression'; recovery years away
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/P/PA_TOLL_BROTHERS_HOUSING_PAOL-?SITE=PASCR&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
"PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- The chief executive of Toll Brothers Inc., the nation's largest luxury-home builder, said Wednesday that the housing industry is in a "depression" and any recovery could be two or three years away."
He said depression, Asshats! Lets see the definition of that word..
Depression: In economics, a depression is a term commonly used for a sustained downturn in the economy.
Yep, Please beLIEve the hype. Go out and buy something... What are you waiting for? Put an offer on something! Get going!!!
The What (Did I say Depression?)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at June 5, 2008 12:36 PM
He said the housing industry is in a depression.
Not the economy.
And Toll Bros has little to no effect on the NYC housing market. They are a 99% suburban builder. He is referencing their markets in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, etc.
Not Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn, moron.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 12:45 PM
11:59
you have no credibility since you only post a one sided, alarmist drivel with no basis in what's actually happening.
might as well go around with a sandwich board in time's square, at least then we could get a laugh out of it.
Legion
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 12:52 PM
"The What's" logic:
In a depression banks fail, unemployment rises, prices rise (actually not true but WHATever), credit is difficult
Therefore
since A bank failed, some people are getting laid off, and some prices have risen
= We are entering a depression.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 12:54 PM
The What ALWAYS tows the same line. Every snipet of negative data, or sensationalist headline and it all "The end of the world" this and "Major Depression" that. I have been on these boards for over a year and that is the only act this one-trick pony has.
Seriously, I wonder if this guy actually beleives his own garbage or does it for the shock value and attention. Either way, he is just another robot spitting out pre-programed lines to rile everyone up.
Dont you ever have a single insightful independant thought "The What", or is that too far beyond your grasp?
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 1:09 PM
If condos are priced right they absolutely do sell. This is about overpricing. Not about the appeal of condos or all real estate in Brooklyn in general.
The only reason some condo sales have been slow in some buildings is because the finishings were cheap and ugly and yet the developer would go crazy asking lots of money for it. The Browndo conversions are really bad that way. You can buy a beautiful historic house in other neighborhoods for what they want for a tiny browndo in Park Slope, with awful finishings. Ticky tacky.
I'm always really surprised we don't see more developers offering to customize kitchens and baths per the buyer's specs, here in Brooklyn. They do it in other cities, why not here?
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 1:12 PM
"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. - Arthur Schopenhauer (1788 - 1860)"
Let's see... I'm arguing with Anons from the planet Stupidtron, I feel like Dr. Who!
Let's see, I bet you have a "Vested Interest" on beLIEving the BS.. Okay, I understand. So you thinking that we can sustain economic prosperity for the foreseeable future. That the "Credit Crisis" is over and Goldilocks is back to dancing to the strippers pole?
Ok then Asshats put your money/future on that bet. Continue to pay Mortgage on a soon deprecating asset. Go out and "BUY' something, Brownstoner is always profiling wonderful things here. Please go out and buy, prove The What wrong...
The What
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 1:17 PM
Looks like we're back to 2005 Quarter 4 numbers.
OH THE HORROR!!!!!
Wasn't 2005 the year everyone said was the peak?
So does this mean we're peaking again??
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 1:18 PM
"I'm always really surprised we don't see more developers offering to customize kitchens and baths per the buyer's specs, here in Brooklyn. They do it in other cities, why not here?"
Because they never had to. They could throw together any piece of crap and it would move. Especially with the smaller "Browdos" you refer to. Most are small time guys that pool together some money to do a condo conversion, hire the cheapest contractors with the lowest material costs and mostly got away with it with the demand being what it was. Not so much anymore...
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 1:24 PM
hmmm.....so many what's around here...some logged in, some not...
good thing i skip all of them.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 1:28 PM
"Because they never had to. They could throw together any piece of crap and it would move. Especially with the smaller "Browdos" you refer to. Most are small time guys that pool together some money to do a condo conversion, hire the cheapest contractors with the lowest material costs and mostly got away with it with the demand being what it was. Not so much anymore..."
Speaking of that, does anyone know how things are going down at the Shangri-La? Haven't heard about that place in a while.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 1:38 PM
"hmmm.....so many what's around here...some logged in, some not...
good thing i skip all of them."
Hmmmm... you still called me out...
Hmm... that was me too, Asshat. I forgot to log-in...
BTW I want you to buy something Condo, House, Co-Op, anything! Please buy! The What wants you to "get something", like BENT....
The What Someday this war is gonna end....
Posted by: what at June 5, 2008 1:38 PM
The What is dead to me.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 1:47 PM
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street rose sharply Thursday after investors got some comforting news about the economy -- some better-than-expected retail sales in May and a drop in the number of laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080605/wall_street.html
But BURIED in the story...
"Still, the four-week average for those getting benefits rose to 3.086 million, the highest since March 2004."
Since two thousand and fooooouuuuuuuurrrrrr!!! Spin spin spin...
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 2:34 PM
Yoo Hoo... Hey Asshats read this. Take it all in...
Delinquencies and Foreclosures Increase in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey
Press Release - NDS
http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/62936.htm
Here is the "Money Shot"..
The seasonally adjusted total delinquency rate is the highest recorded in the MBA survey since 1979, however the non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate is not.
This is from the Mortgage Bankers Association not from the pinheads who want you to believe everything is peachy.
" The increase in the overall delinquency rate was driven by increases in the number of loans 60 and 90 or more days past due, primarily in California and Florida. The 30 day delinquency percentage is still below levels seen as recently as 2002."
No, that doesn't have anything to do with the New York market! It's different here, What! People from Europe is buying Real Estate and Asshats are driving demand!
If you are a member of the media and would like a copy of the survey, please contact Carolyn Kemp at (202) 557-2727 or ckemp@mortgagebankers.org. If you are not a member of the media and would like to purchase the survey, please call (800) 348-8653.
Yep, call Carol! She will tell you to "Get Bent"!
"The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 370,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation's residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. "
So the Asshats wont say this is BS.... Game Over!
The What (Tick... Tick.. Tick..)
Someday this war is gonna end...
Posted by: what at June 5, 2008 2:43 PM
UHHH....What...you left out the most important part of that article!!!
"89% of these loan delinquencies occurred in just four states...Florida, Arizona, California and Nevada"
I'd say that's a pretty important statement you left off there...
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 3:02 PM
"Since the government's stimulus checks were mailed out in mid-May, Wal-Mart has cashed $350 million of the checks at its stores"
That's your "good news" on the retail front.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 3:19 PM
looks like this whatchamacallit is falling flat.
still harping on doom and gloom.
Despite the actual facts.
What
a
loser.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 3:30 PM
"UHHH....What...you left out the most important part of that article!!!
"89% of these loan delinquencies occurred in just four states...Florida, Arizona, California and Nevada"
I'd say that's a pretty important statement you left off there..."
Hey Asshat, I pointed it out here...
" The increase in the overall delinquency rate was driven by increases in the number of loans 60 and 90 or more days past due, primarily in California and Florida. The 30 day delinquency percentage is still below levels seen as recently as 2002."
No, that doesn't have anything to do with the New York market! It's different here, What! People from Europe is buying Real Estate and Asshats are driving demand!"
So you "Think" that the foreclosures from other states won't affect NYC?! Okie Dookie! Rally on!!!
The What
Someday this war is gonna end....
BTW You Asshats better hope I'm wrong...
Posted by: what at June 5, 2008 3:36 PM
3:02 - it used to be only two states. it is actually 6 now (FL, CA, AZ, GA, OH, MI). Add TX, UT, and the Carolinas to the list soon. That may be a small number of states, but those cover a very outsized portion of the US population. i want some of what you guys are smoking (it's probably fear b/c i get the sense that 90% of the posters here are listless brokers). i work in finance, specifically banks, so don't tell me i don't know what i'm talking about. this is only getting worse from here. i pulled the MBA data by region and the acceleration in the deterioration is shocking. nothing peachy going on, anywhere (i will give you that the northeast is relatively better than the rest - for now). oh, and lehman's not over, but you knew that right...
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 3:43 PM
"I'm arguing with Anons from the planet Stupidtron, I feel like Dr. Who!"
BEST WHAT LINE EVER!!!!
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 4:30 PM
yeah, that's the ticket,
encourage a moron...
guess what that makes you folks?
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 8:35 PM
Consumer spending up.
Dow Jones up.
Unemployment low.
Unemployment claims down.
GDP up.
Oh but, some companies are laying off people and some companies are losing money (as they always do) so the entire economy must be doomed.
Let's just ignore the last 300 years of Cartesian logic altogether and the entire scientific method based on mathematics.
Let's instead focus on the few negative or anecdotal instances culled from the internet that might support our arguments, no matter how disparate or non topical. Let's then string these together and posit them as truth.
Does anybody else see the Orwellian parallels here? When truth and reason take a back seat to logic and statistics what are we left with but a bunch of cackling monkeys jumping up and down in unison at the amusing images on the screen.
Bravo.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 8:52 PM
uhh, correction.
that last line should read..
when truth and reason, logic and statistics take a back seat to rantings-as-spectacle what are we left with but a bunch of cackling monkeys jumping up and down in usison at the amusing images on the screen.
Bravo.
Legion.
Posted by: guest at June 5, 2008 9:04 PM
uhh, correction.
that last line should read..
when truth and reason, logic and statistics take a back seat to REALITY what are we left with but a bunch of cackling monkeys jumping up and down in usison at the amusing images on the screen.
Bravo.
The What
Someday this war is gonna end....
Rally on, Asshats!
Posted by: what at June 6, 2008 12:57 AM
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