Bearish Bob Toll: No One Wants to Look 'Like a Schmuck'

Toll is right. Real estate, like all markets, is supremely psychological. An given how much people talk about it at cocktail parties, the "schmuck" factor is arguably even higher here in nyc.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 9:38 AM

But there no supply in Manhattan or Brooklyn. These markets are going up once again

- The Where

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 9:50 AM

yawn...

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 10:01 AM

WHAT does Bob Toll or Ben Bernanke know? Obviously, they're bitter renters and have no clue about how NYC is IMMUNE to any negative economic event. Morons!

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 10:07 AM

talk about morons- how are you, guest 10:07. Immune? Your memory must begin at 2006. And lay off the renters- they're paying your mortgage- that is, if you're smart enough to have any.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 10:25 AM

slightly positive piece of news—the index of pending home sales rose 6.3 percent in April

But pending sales were down year over year, which is how these things are usually measured. It makes sense that April would be higher than March which is usually higher than February. Just another lame attempt to spin the data.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 10:33 AM

10:25, little slow picking up on sarcasm?

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 10:34 AM

Historically April sales always shows an increase over March so that doesn't mean anything. What we need to look at is sales for the same period 07 and 08.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 10:39 AM

Is a "margherita" a liquefied pizza?

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 10:45 AM

"We're definitely in dire need of something controversial today."

How about the view from abroad -- the Asia Times reporting the Youth of America are about to get the economic asskicking they deserve, and get on their knees before their foreign masters.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JF10Aa02.html

I actually think it's the older generations who bankrupted the country, but that is a whole different debate.

"Americans have to work harder, save more, and defer gratification. Instead of spending four years in a non-stop party at a taxpayer-subsidized state university, the middling American student will work during the day, go to night school, and save for a dozen years to buy his or her first house (at a much lower price than the present owner paid for it). They will stop complaining about boring jobs and oppressive bosses, and feel grateful to have the work. Their parents won't bail them out; in fact, their parents will postpone retirement and work and additional 10 or 15 years. It's not going to be fun, but there's no helping it. The sooner Americans reconcile themselves to a tighter belt and a longer day, the better."

That's right, what the so-called "hard working white middle class" was saying about folks like The What 15 years ago, people across the country are now saying about us all. Doesn't sound like they want to lend us more money so we can buy more of their stuff.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 11:27 AM

park slope sucks.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 11:29 AM

Anyone hear that piece about the "underinsured" getting bankrupted by health care costs on NPR -- and how it's now cutting into the middle and upper middle class? Bad times.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 11:45 AM

You can make a lot of money by following bob Toll's advice? Just ask anyone who listened to him in 2004-2006 when his market outlook was nothing but sunshine. Bet they're happy.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 12:18 PM

i think we have hit capitulation. the what is on a roll and no one even tries to dispute him. the underwater buyers want to change the subject, and the renters just moved up a notch in status. this site is dead to me.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 12:22 PM

OK, t'What, when does the bubble end? Give me a date you ghetto ass punk bitch. All you say is that things are getting bad and it is all about to end. You are so tired. Go back to being a trannie hooker on Classon and Fulton and stay off this site.

Thw war is over. You lost. Get out.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 12:23 PM

With all this heat, the smell of park slopers smelling their own farts was unbearable.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 12:37 PM

.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 12:43 PM

Hi. I am a bitter renter. I have a crappy job so I can get on this site and write non-sensical comments all day. That is why I can't afford to own, even in this, supposedly, soft market. I think renting is great. That is why I picked the most expensive city in the country to live and rent. I could have moved back to Ohio and rented an entire town for a year for the same price as what I pay in a month to live in the center of it all, but my unique filing skills would be underutilized back home. So here I am. Renting for the rest of my life and going to a web site and posting how I don't like brownstones and how the economy is in the toilet and why I am so smart for being the total loser that I am.

Sound familiar, idiots? It should because it is you.

If you don't own a home or ever want to own a home, why in god's name do you actually make the effort to display your lack of knowledge on this site?

The t'What is a moron who has been claiming that the end of the world is upon us yet we are all still here. the t'What does not speak the trbuth. (s)he cuts and pastes articles that fit her warped world view.

As for you renters who think the world would end if you just stopped paying your rent, go ahead. Stop paying your rent. Please. Stop. Then you will be evicted and be forced to live in a place you can afford, like ENY or Nebraska. Then, and only then, will you understand that you know nothing, you add no value to this site, and you don't belong here.

Bye.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 12:50 PM

things are different here, buy now or forever be priced out, everybody wants to live in a city, forget about what the market will do in the next 2-3 years b/c it won't matter in 10, i built a mini-empire in 2001 with $80k as a down payment so you should have no problem, the only way to make money is to buy real estate, renters suck, better have my check by the 3rd.

sound familiar? it should because it's you and no matter how alarmist you try to be, you are still underwater and no one is taking the bait. good luck with those late payments or trying to rent out to cover your costs.
i'm just going to sit here, stay bitter, keep paying my rent and keep growing my net worth at a much faster clip than you can dig out of your negative equity. all while doing it at a much lower cost than carrying a depreciating asset. guess what, you lose. i win.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 1:16 PM

12:50 needs to chillax. And restart his meds. And take up tai chi or something. Shhhhhh, 12:50, it's all gonna be OK.

What's "lovey dovey" hate?

Hey fellow bitter renters -- buy my t-shirt so I can finally afford a down payment!

http://www.zazzle.com/bitter_renter_shirt-235860130489499204

Happy hot Tuesday, b-stoners. Who wants a Mojito?

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 1:18 PM

What date is this all ending t'What????? No answer as usual. You know nothing.

I own my own house in Bed-Stuy. No debt and working to throw trash like you out. Get back on that corner and work hard for the money, ghetto ass, before the cops come back and arrest you AGAIN. You are a useless piece of human garbage.

You can't take the heat t'What, so get out of the kitchen.

Pack your knives and go.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 1:27 PM

12:50 has entered the anger stage

lol- i have to go fix the penske file

it will all be ok 12:50

maybe your skank gold digging whore of a wife amy leave you but you will survive and see your brats on the weekend

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 1:28 PM

1:16: I own with no debt. I am not under water. This isn't Ohio, where you come from. You know nothing and it is painfully obvious. You lose. Now back to Ohio with you.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 1:31 PM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
<|3

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 1:41 PM

I am really confused ! I am starting to feel as if most of the bloggers on this site do not really know about real estate. Robert Toll is not that bright, Yes he is a Wealthy man but that does not make him smart. Toll Bros went into most parts of the United States (Florida, Cali, Arizona) selling the Luxury homes and overbuilt . Then They along with ( Lennar, WCI, Centex, DR Horton) and many others were Left holding the Bag. Now you have some Idiot called the "WHAT" getting recognized in New York mag. "WHAT" in the world does he know? Understand this NYC is not The rest of the Country. Can Our real estate go down ? Of course it can. But if it did go down It would not be much at all. NYC is not the rest of this country. As much as I love the Unites States , The USA is really outside of NYC and San Fran disgusting. If you guys don't want to buy a home that is your choice but stop all the Bashing. One last thing these People that are going around bashing every area except Park Slope are Paid Bashers. They get paid from the Brokers On 7th ave . Wake up and smell the Coffee.
"Not The What"

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 1:54 PM

"Bearish Bob Toll: No One Wants to Look 'Like a Schmuck'"

But they (most buyers) still walk, talk and smell like schmucks here in Brooklyn.

"U.S. Economy: Pending Sales of Existing Homes Unexpectedly Rise [Bloomberg]"

Food for schmucks.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 2:17 PM

2:17 - your headline is a day late and a dollar short. that is an early Easter effect (google it since you're so up to speed on bbg) and will correct next month. inventory is up in nyc (including bkn), sales are down, prices are down, interest rates on the way up, lending standards tightening. that's all you need to know.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 2:25 PM

1:31 I agree 100% with you.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 2:26 PM

Da burbs are the NEW GHETTOS as there is an exodus back to urban environment - a reverse exurban movement, if you will. Cities are now much safer than the 70's & 80's and boomers living in spacious McMansions are finding the costs to heat & cool coupled with high taxes too much to handle as they age. Especially, now that there is no need to pay high taxes for good schools as their kids are grown. Mark these words, prices in the cities will rise & the burbs will become Ghettos. Urban environments are our future. No doubt, son.

Anyway, if you have the means to buy in the city, by all means, do so because prices will rise due to high demand - from abroad & from the suburbs. stay cool, New York!

-The Where

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 2:29 PM

2:29 you are on the money Green=Big cities

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 2:47 PM

I got under YOUR skin, t'What. It is obvious from your need to respond to my posts.

There are fewer and fewer blacks in Bed-Stuy as they are selling to non-blacks or priced out of their rentals. Nice try though, t'What.

I have no kids and I am certainly not scared of you. Your sad threats make me laugh. You are so dumb. You think you know me? Come and get me then.

Still no date of the end of the war, t'What. Why not? Because is it is already over and you just can't admit it so you try to scare people with your fake-ghetto posing? So sad little t'What.

btw: you can be ghetto and not be black. You can be black and not be ghetto. Nice attempt at race baiting. If you are black and ghetto, then YOU are black and ghetto. Don't sully the good name of all the hard-working black people who live in Brooklyn. You do them a disservice.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 2:52 PM

bxgirl: I lived here all my life and I own. You are WRONG again. A typical day on Brownstoner.

Just because you attended a few classes at a local, second-rate community college don't think you even come across as intelligent.

You rent. You are an idiot. It is that simple.

And you live in the Bronx?! How dumb are you.

And who will cater to me? You dear. You will cater to me. I will get second-class service because you are a moron, but you will serve me and know your place on the social ladder - at the very bottom.

Now go clean my toilets you piece of ignorant trash.

If you don't like it, go to Zimbabwe with the t'What.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 3:02 PM

the baby boomers will start dying off en masse in the next 10-15 years. so how is that going to prop up demand long-term? especially when many own multiple homes but have only 1-2 children...

yes, you should buy immediately on some vague perceived long-term trend when the market is tanking right now and over the next 2-3 years. brilliant move!

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 3:10 PM

3:10: The supply of people comes from the same little town you came from. Go back to Nebraska while you can, idiot.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 3:17 PM

bold type guest: during japan's property boom, people became so desperate to own something affordable that they would buy something so far out that they had to take a bullet train to work (not cheap). since the collapse, tokyo prices have continued to trend down, even today. so, no, not buyers for brooklyn. plus, most "suburbs" for nyc are on train lines with < 1 hour commutes. this just doesn't apply here. your article is more about inland empire and central valley, ca. nice try though. keep searching google news and bbg, i'm sure you'll find the answer somewhere...

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 3:26 PM

3:17 - 3:10 here.
i would, but your mom would get lonely and you know how psycho she gets when she stops taking her meds.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 3:30 PM

3:30: Not only is your teenage response so obvious, it is rather sick given that my mother is dead.

I hear Greyhound is a great way to get back to the corn fields. Bye, bye.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 3:59 PM

Wow, a whole hour and no response from the t'What. I guess he admits defeat.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 4:07 PM

But NY is not Tokyo or London.

NY real estate prices ALWAYS go up in the long run. Just look at the twentieth century: except for 1900-1920, 1929-1945, 1955-1975, 1987-1993, they always went up.

And if that isn't enough statistics, try googling Robert Shiller's work. He has charts going back to 1500 in some cases. Real estate goes up in the long run, usually at the same rate as inflation, so long as the city remains successful and popular.

But anyway, NY is the promised land, and it will keep getting better and better until only hedge fund moguls can live in 18 ft 3 story "fully renov" FSBOs.

Just extrapolate the trends from the last five years -- in 15 years, only the Sheik of Dubai will be able to buy an apartment in the Novo.

Or better yet, look at the post on Curbed detailing building costs in NY. To do a gold-plated apartment in a Manhattan high rise costs $500 psf plus acquisition costs, which are a bit more than that. So if sales prices drop below current levels, building will end, driving prices up, unless acquisition costs drop, but that's not going to happen, because they aren't making land any more or increasing zoning rights or expanding neighborhoods and obviously no owner would ever sell for less than $500 a buildable foot regardless.

Anyway, at $5 per gallon, it might cost $2000 or $3000 a year to commute to the suburbs. Obviously people are going to be happy to pay an extra $500k or $1m to buy a tiny place in outer PS in order to save that. That's just supply and demand. And as the suburbs decline in price, NY will just go up and up.

So buy now or forever a loser be!

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 4:24 PM

But NY is not Tokyo or London.

NY real estate prices ALWAYS go up in the long run. Just look at the twentieth century: except for 1900-1920, 1929-1945, 1955-1975, 1987-1993, they always went up.

And if that isn't enough statistics, try googling Robert Shiller's work. He has charts going back to 1500 in some cases. Real estate goes up in the long run, usually at the same rate as inflation, so long as the city remains successful and popular.

But anyway, NY is the promised land, and it will keep getting better and better until only hedge fund moguls can live in 18 ft 3 story "fully renov" FSBOs.

Just extrapolate the trends from the last five years -- in 15 years, only the Sheik of Dubai will be able to buy an apartment in the Novo.

Or better yet, look at the post on Curbed detailing building costs in NY. To do a gold-plated apartment in a Manhattan high rise costs $500 psf plus acquisition costs, which are a bit more than that. So if sales prices drop below current levels, building will end, driving prices up, unless acquisition costs drop, but that's not going to happen, because they aren't making land any more or increasing zoning rights or expanding neighborhoods and obviously no owner would ever sell for less than $500 a buildable foot regardless.

Anyway, at $5 per gallon, it might cost $2000 or $3000 a year to commute to the suburbs. Obviously people are going to be happy to pay an extra $500k or $1m to buy a tiny place in outer PS in order to save that. That's just supply and demand. And as the suburbs decline in price, NY will just go up and up.

So buy now or forever a loser be!

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 4:26 PM

bxgrl and the t'What have obviously lost. Your responses are childish and truly sad.

bxgrl: Your very response shows that you lack a formal education. You didn't get your money's worth. I would go back and ask for a refund. Then you can come clean my toilets.

t'What: You never have a response to the actual question, do you? Census data is now 8 years old and estimates are just that. And since you aren't really that ghetto, you forgot 11221 and 11233. Those two zip codes cover most of Bed-Stuy. 11238 is so white! If you are going to be ghetto, do it correctly.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 4:41 PM

Sorry about the double post. If I could delete it, I would. I'd correct my mistake, too. I forgot that in most of the brownstone neighborhoods, you also need to make an exception for 1975-1985, when white flight was causing price declines south of Flatbush Ave and the black bourgeoisie was fleeing to the 'burbs from north of it.

But otherwise, prices always go up.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 4:42 PM

1:27/3:02/2:52 has all his net worth tied up in a family sized house in BedStuy, but doesn't have a family. Just filled it up with hate. How dumb is that?

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 4:57 PM

4:57: I am the future of Brooklyn. Wealthy, well-educated, own my home, don't rent any of it out to losers like you, hate the trash in the hood, including that loser the t'What, but will tolerate them until they are priced out and looking forward to a cleaner, safer borough. If you don't like me, don't worry. Soon you too will be gone and it won't matter what you think. You can just keep coming back to Brownstoner to see how well I am doing and post your sad-assed comments, which is all you will have left in this world.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 5:11 PM

bxgrl: Your response actually describes you perfectly. You are, by far, the biggest idiot on this site. If you can't recognize your own short comings as it relates to your agruing skills, there is no hope for you. Now, clean the toilets, kitty litter girl.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 5:49 PM

That's right, complain about my spelling. That changes the argument completely.

You can't afford the Bowery bxgrl. btw: the landfill on staten island was closed years ago. You need to get out of the boogie down more often.

What bothers you, dear, is that I am right and you know it. You are a second-class citizen. You don't want to admit it, but you are. We all know you are.

I do like that you assume all rich people are white. There are plenty of people of all races who are rich. You just aren't one of them.

Happy renting.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 6:39 PM

That's right, complain about my spelling. That changes the argument completely.

You can't afford the Bowery bxgrl. btw: the landfill on staten island was closed years ago. You need to get out of the boogie down more often.

What bothers you, dear, is that I am right and you know it. You are a second-class citizen. You don't want to admit it, but you are. We all know you are.

I do like that you assume all rich people are white. There are plenty of people of all races who are rich. You just aren't one of them.

Happy renting.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 6:43 PM

bxgrl: you make the same comment every time someone calls you on your stupidity. You think it is fun and they gave you a laugh. What it really did was annoy you. That is why you keep at it. And I will admit I am getting a cheap thrill at your expense. The more you talk, the deeper the hole you dig.

You don't dispute anything I say. If it wasn't true, you would have tried to argue the point. But you can't since it is true. You are a piece of ignorant trash who rents in the Bronx and sells kitty litter for a living. You are a sad sack.

btw: you compared me to a nazi who believed in ethnic cleansing. Are you trying to tell me I was something other than a white person? You are truly stupid. Go back and read your own posts and try to learn from the experience. You obviously didn't learn anything at Hostos CC.

You are trash and I will make every effort to remind you, on a daily basis, that you are trash.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 7:29 PM

Sorry t'What, I am not Bold Type GUEST.

How dumb are you that you post something to tell me you won't respond to me. Moron.

You and bxgrl are the trolls on this site. Equally stupid. Equally deserving a a major dressing down. And I will supply it to both of you every single time.

Just call me the "What, a stupid bxgrl."

-What a stupid bxgrl

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 8:06 PM

Are you not a renter from the BRonx who sells kitty litter for a living?

Do you not try to rebuff others when they call you stupid by saying they should take a philosophy class?

Do you not say, despite constant attempts to insult other posters becasue they annoy your and get under yoru skin - that they give you a laugh?

You assumed I wanted ETHNIC cleansing. I said rich people come from all races. You are not rich. Being rich is not an ethnicity.

What school of higher education did you go to and in what year did you graduate? What degree did you earn?

- What, a stupid bxgrl

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 8:15 PM

bxgrl rents from friends. If not for their assistance, she woudl be living in a cardboard box under the Major Deegan.

Loser.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 9:12 PM

I know you are looking bxgrl. You can't handle it when you get called out.

Sleep tight. Don't let the bedbugs in your nasty Bronx apartment bite.

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 9:51 PM

BTG: Now you know everything? You must be Dave. Another @$$ on this thread. Anyone who defends a loser like bxgrl needs to get their head examined. As for the name calling, bxgrl goes right for it and so do you.

"The name calling suggests a lower than average IQ and he has probably been called most of those names during adolescence. Additionally, he has a fear of women which has been manifested by his attacks on bxgrl. Most likely impotence problems as well."

Well I agree bxgrl has a low IQ.

So I am a woman who is afraid of women? You are an idiot. Nice attempt at reverse psychology, but you know nothing.

If you and your loser ilk think you are going to hijack another thread without some serious challenges, guess again.

- What, a stupid bxgrl

Posted by: guest at June 10, 2008 11:29 PM

Honestly, I get a real "Silence of the Lambs"/"Psycho," identity confused, sexually violent profile from this new guest. They are kind of like a clearly disturbed person who sits on the subway, smelling rancid, muttering to themselves and occasionally screaming expletives at other riders. I think we should all just avert our eyes. Bxgrl, ignore her/him. Something you said has set him/her off and s/he just can't let it go. The sooner s/he returns to Crazytown the better.

Posted by: guest at June 11, 2008 12:00 PM

So you losers are still here commenting on me? You are belong in crazytown.

bxgirl is a piece of ignorant trash.

BTG is just as obsessed as bxgrl is on commenting about me. YOu are the trash with the wretched life.

12:00: Way too much thought went into that comment. Are you secretly obsessed with homeless people?

- What, the stupid bxgrl

Posted by: guest at June 11, 2008 1:02 PM

"You are belong in crazytown."

Oh hai. You can haz crazy?

Actually, rabidly foaming at the mouth guest, almost no thought went into my comment at 12:00, because I am bright and well-educated, and not crazy, so I can produce a well-written, correctly punctuated post (with no typos) with little effort.

Does it make you sad that no one on this site would invite you to their party? That we wouldn't invite you to sit at our table at lunch? That, yet again, you are outside, left alone, an object of derision?

You lose. You have been tagged out in our game of blog dodgeball. We hit you hard in the gut, and laughed when you tried not to cry. And also, you got your period in your white shorts and we are all laughing at you. You are just as shameful as you think.

Now I am averting my eyes from you and your bitter, nasty, seething grotesque pervertedness.

Posted by: guest at June 11, 2008 3:00 PM

You lose since you actually came back to comment to me. and commenting on spelling errors is the first sign that you actually have nothing to say.

You are so easily manipulated.

And the vile crap you try to pass off as intelligence is rather laughable.

- What, the stupid bxgrl

Posted by: guest at June 11, 2008 5:34 PM

You lose since you actually came back to comment to me. and commenting on spelling errors is the first sign that you actually have nothing to say.

You are so easily manipulated.

And the vile crap you try to pass off as intelligence is rather laughable.

- What, the stupid bxgrl

Posted by: guest at June 11, 2008 5:58 PM