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April 9, 2008
The Heat is On
The website HotPads is producing foreclosure heat maps, such as the one for Brooklyn above. The data for the maps comes from RealtyTrac, which collects info on foreclosure filings. No big surprises: The site's NYC map show that East New York, Bushwick, Bownsville and Canarsie have some of the highest concentrations of foreclosures per capita in Brooklyn, while Manhattan has almost none and large swaths of Queens are way too hot to handle.
Brooklyn Foreclosure Map [HotPads]
Fine Tuning the Picture On the Foreclosure Mess [WSJ]
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Comments
Amazing how Staten Island seems to have the most foreclosure filings per capita.
I'm also surprised how well the Bronx is doing.
I think Manhattan is somewhat protected by the huge number of rental apartments - particularly uptown. This might even be true for a lot of the Bronx, particularly South Bronx.
Inwood has amongst the lowest number of foreclosures because most homes are rentals.
Also, I wonder how co-ops work into this map? I think it's been years since a co-op building went into foreclosure, but certainly individual owners are evicted sometimes. Do those count as foreclosures? I doubt it.
Posted by: Polemicist at April 9, 2008 9:31 AM
Staten Island and East New York are on fire! Polemicist, it is interesting how the richer areas appear to be the least affected. All the talk about the financial markets expolding just shows that the Wall Streeters are still holding up fine and the little guys are getting hurt the most.
Overall, the state seems to be faring much better than other large ones such as California, Florida, etc. Although someone made the point the other day that the foreclosure process varies widely across states (e.g., the process is much longer in New York, so you don't see the impact as immediately), so it's hard to do a meaningful comparison.
Posted by: Biff Champion at April 9, 2008 9:43 AM
Also Pol, Certainly your point about the large number of rentals and infrequency of co-op foreclosures in the higher income areas explains a lot of this.
Posted by: Biff Champion at April 9, 2008 9:46 AM
I think we are doing just fine. Staten island is taking some hits but overall will be fine.
Posted by: guest at April 9, 2008 9:50 AM
Staten Island may have more foreclosures per capita - and 1 reason is they have more home ownership per capita.
If a locality is mostly renter (as is NYC) foreclosure rates will be lower.
The areas if of NYC with highest forelosure are lower income and high rates of home ownership.
Posted by: guest at April 9, 2008 10:19 AM
Bill: No kidding about other areas. I didn't even look at Florida or California, I know the story there. I checked out Chicago - almost the entire city and the vast majority of the neighboring suburbs are entirely red. Only Lincoln Park is yellow. I think that is one of the few upper income neighborhoods in that city.
Posted by: Polemicist at April 9, 2008 10:30 AM
10:19, I agree. I did a very quick search on ownership statistics from the 90s (I'm sure there are much more recent stats, but the percentages likely haven't changed much). Manhattan and the Bronx have approx. 19% ownership vs. 81% rentals (which seemed higher than I would have guessed), whereas S.I. each had approx 63% ownership and 37% rentals.
Posted by: Biff Champion at April 9, 2008 10:33 AM
That is, S.I. AND Queens each had approx 63% ownership and 37% rentals.
Posted by: Biff Champion at April 9, 2008 10:36 AM
Manhattanites can still sell their apts, that's why there are no foreclosures there. There is no longer any buyers in the fringe neighborhoods because they are the sub-prime borrowers.
Posted by: guest at April 9, 2008 10:40 AM
Pol, I noticed Chicago (and the rest of Illinois) too. Not to mention Colorado. And I think Nevada is hurting as well.
As I said, the lag in foreclosing in New York may end up making the seemingly wide gap not so wide after all.
Posted by: Biff Champion at April 9, 2008 10:41 AM
Also, a lot of the properties listed are pre-foreclosure- so they may not even enter foreclosure.
Posted by: Karka at April 9, 2008 11:03 AM
Co-ops will generally be fine since most boards wouldn't allow people in with sub-primes, and co-ops also tend to see for slightly less as a result, so there is more of a safety buffer there. Plus, established co-ops are more likely to absorb an apartment than let a bank take control, hanging onto it as a rental until they can sell it back on the open market.
Condos will be harder hit, but the city has fewer of those anyway, and they tend to be high-end anyway. New condos in less prime areas will be smacked hardest, along with single-family homes in Queens, Brooklyn and SI.
Posted by: guest at April 9, 2008 11:06 AM
Sometimes people here say having an apartment in a house helps keep off foreclosure. But there are no foreclosures in Lefferts Manor, which are one-family houses only. If your house does not have a rental apartment it would have been more difficult to qualify for a loan, right? Guess that's a given. It's just interesting.
Posted by: guest at April 9, 2008 2:02 PM
also interesting - the huge swath of red in NJ by the GWB - seems like lots of flippers there getting stuck with the hot potato.
nice to see PLG staying out of the red, at least so far - big ramp up in flipping there over the past 3 or so years.
Posted by: BrooklynLove at April 9, 2008 3:15 PM
I don't see how it's only about flippers, BrooklynLove. It's more about people insisting on owning larger properties than they needed or could afford. Many people did buy to stay long term. But they justified overspending because of the potential profit they could make if they ever did flip and sell. The potential to flip made them feel too comfortable about being house-poor. Also there are people who inherit a house that's paid for then they take out loans on it. Or kids who convince their elderly parents to take out loans on the family house to help them buy a place. All these scenarios are non-flipper situations.
Posted by: guest at April 9, 2008 5:45 PM
5:45 - tons of flipping and specualtion in that GWB area of NJ - there is a core of englewood that's like scarsdale but outside that it's more like mount vernon. i wasn't making general statements, my statements were directed to specific areas.
Posted by: BrooklynLove at April 9, 2008 7:41 PM
The high end crowd will go down in flames as well. You guys don't think all those layoffs a Bears (and many other Wall St. firms) is going to affect Brooklyn Heights, Battery Pk or other 'Financial' district enclaves?
The Grand Depression is designed to hit all the way to the upper middle class making them as poor as the folks in the fringe areas. It's only a matter of time.
Posted by: guest at April 10, 2008 4:04 AM
you sound like a fool
Posted by: BrooklynLove at April 10, 2008 7:43 AM
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