Last Week's Biggest Sales

I'm just curious here...the doom and gloomsters have been saying for approximately 2 years now that nyc housing prices are going to shit.

Please tell me WHEN you will admit you were wrong.

These housing prices are still very healthy, the "correction" in nyc seems to be flat prices.

No drops of 50% as some said. Not even 20%, it would seem.

So will there be a time when you finally admit you were wrong, or will you just continue to say...next month, next month for another 2 years?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 11:53 AM

Well that Clinton Hill house took a substantial $150,000 price cut.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:08 PM

11:53 What are you talking about? 2 places in prime central slope sell for 2.1 and 1.7 and you don't see that as down? Last year and the year before everything there was listed at 3M and over and people were saying that was well priced. These prices are coming down.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:08 PM

Actually, I can think of ONE house in Park Slope that has sold for over 3 million in the past couple years. It was on Berkeley Place. The rumors of tons of 3 million dollar properties are purely that...rumors.

You don't think 2.1 million for a 3 family house is a healthy price for a house that needs work???

You are nuts.

And the 1.7 million place might be a co-op. Not a house.

I do not believe prices are coming down. I don't know why they aren't, but people still seem quite willing to shell out 2 million bucks for a house, even though half the people on here say that it's impossible.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:13 PM

An asking price is not a sale price. Reduction(s) in an asking price is not a reduction in sale prices. Why part of that do you not understand?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:14 PM

I've noticed the studio market is going CRAZY. In Park Slope anyway. Maybe some people want to trade down? Someone in my building bought their studio in late 2006 for 265K and sold it two weeks ago for 379K.

What housing bust?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:16 PM

If anyone here thinks 1.725 million for a house in Clinton Hill is not a healthy selling price, then you are absolutely an idiot, to be perfectly frank.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:18 PM

Dropping asking prices lead to dropping sales prices. What part of that do you not understand?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:19 PM

Actually, 12:19....they don't.

I've seen many MANY BIDDING wars in the past several weeks with lower asking prices.

They are asking less than a year ago, but getting the same price they would have gotten a year ago in the end.

Doesn't really matter, though. We are mostly talking about people either selling their home for 300% more than they paid for it.

Or people coming from Manhattan looking to buy a house, selling their place on the UWS for 2 million and not giving a crap about what the house will do in terms of appreciation.

People love brownstones. More people want them than we have a supply of. Buyers don't seem to care if the house will appreciate. If they can afford it, they just want to buy it.

Not everyone looks at their home as an investment. Most smart people know to invest in other things besides real estate.

These are luxury purchases. Like buying a diamond ring. No one cares what it's worth...you are going to keep it for a lifetime.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:24 PM

Asking prices are inflated, you moron! Don't make me do the math for you, you bitter, bitter renter.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:25 PM

The buyer in Clinton Hill is going to get hurt. Paying 450 PSF for space in Clinton Hill that needs works is 2006 moronic. Cograts to the seller!

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:33 PM

12:24 you are a typical lying broker. There are no such bidding wars. I know because I've been to the open houses for all the 4 story brownstones in PS, FG, PH, BH, CG, and CH for the last 6 months and afterwards you brokers keep calling begging me to make an offer, any offer. You tell me how the sellers are willing to negotiate or are asking for a price you know is too high but need to hear lower offers to get a reality check. You know it and I know it. This is no longer a sellers market.

I'll keep checking the for sale ads looking for the place I want. You should start checking the job ads for a new way to earn a living.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:38 PM

Let me remind everyone that these are last week's "biggest sales" - if you want to see the real state of the market, go to this site:

http://www.natefind.com/results.php?low=&high=&location=reduced+brooklyn&br=0&column=9&direction=1&pagelast=0&displaymap=0&mapv2=0&nyc=&page=0&searchcodes=&searchexception=reduced+brooklyn&choice=

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:39 PM

I am not a broker, 12:38.

Maybe your stupidity is why you have thus far been unable to buy a house.

I know of 4 such bidding wars because I am actively involved in my community.

Thanks for the concern about my job though. I'm a well established and tenured professor. No need to worry.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:41 PM

12:38...why is it then that every week i see listed townhouses which sold in these neighborhoods for close to asking prices...many of which were criticized on this website that they were overpriced? every single week there is a house listed as sold in park slope, fort greene and clinton hill. you aren't doing something right. maybe your personality turns off the seller?

as someone who has lived here for a while, inventory of homes for sale in park slope is at an unbelieveable low. i remember at any given time, there were 300 homes for sale in the neighborhood. now there are around 20. if that.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:48 PM

12:41 before you were a broker and you had 5 bidding wars just last week. BWAAHAHAHAHAH loser! Get it straight

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:48 PM

yeah, cause there is only ONE broker who posts on brownstoner, 12:48 #2.

are you really THAT ignorant?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:50 PM

Professor as in Kramer?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:53 PM

haha. the first poster was right. everyone sees these houses still selling for huge prices, they get mad they are still living in mom's basement so they lash out.

i don't think they will ever stop proclaiming the end of the world.

even when, in 10 years when brownstones in brooklyn are selling for 5 million.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:58 PM

What are you talking about, twelve-oh-eight the first? That's less than a ten percent cut on the Clinton Hill property ... AFTER the price was INCREASED. I think 'stoner had it right when he wrote, "The asking price of $1,875,000 is definitely in the right ballpark...." It's pretty amusing to go back and read the comments when the building was the HOTD. But Jonathan, keep it real, babe: post links to prior HOTD even when your assessment was wrong.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 12:59 PM

Professor, I guess involved in your community means you stand on the sidewalk and gossip with the neighbors about what some lying broker told you. There is no way the bidders on 4 different properties all told you they were involved in bidding wars. Being involved in your community would not give you such information. You are an idiot and/or a liar.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:06 PM

"in 10 years when brownstones in brooklyn are selling for 5 million."

NO -- NEXT YEAR brownstones will be going for $5m. This market is RED HOT and about to explode to the upside. Just you watch.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:13 PM

No, moron at 1:06. The bidders told me nothing.

The SELLERS, who are my neighbors did.

After you've lived in a neighborhood for many years, you get to know many people if you aren't a nasty person like you seem to be.

Someone a few streets over told me about her open house at the Park on Saturday. She said she had maybe 35 people come through in 2 hours. I thought that was pretty good, is it not?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:15 PM

I was watching CNN this weekend and they are now saying the economy is possibly on the verge of rebounding again. Even if we feel it later and more harsh here in NYC, that leaves all you people on the sidelines another year...maybe two TOPS before prices start going up again. Although personally I've seen almost no drop in prices. I think you just need to accept the fact that you are going to need to move farther away because you are never going to afford a brownstone.

If you are on here saying things are overpriced, bickering about asking vs. selling prices, you can't afford it.

I hear Kensington is lovely, though.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:18 PM

"Please tell me WHEN you will admit you were wrong."

RIGHT NOW. I finally admit that I was wrong. The deadline for a 50% price decline has past. Time is up. Prices have nowhere to go but up from here. I'm gonna ignore all the bad economic news in the media. I'm gonna ignore all the real estate bubble history. Brownstones are in a new paradigm. From this point on you simply cannot lose on a brownstone purchase. At worst prices will remain flat. A few cherry-picked sales every week are absolutely representative of where prices are headed.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:19 PM

clinton hill is the most over priced area right now. Park Slope is at least safe and beutiful. clinton hill is the ghetto , they sell crack on the street corners still. Who would want to raise a family in an environment like that? I just dont understand how people could do that to there families. The schools are also bad and you have to send them to private school from what I understand.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:20 PM

I wonder if people in Los Angeles go on blogs and whine about how they will never afford a house in Beverly Hills, say prices will be 250K, and claim that they are entitled to one on their 40K a year job.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:21 PM

Oh, yeah believe the sellers. That's worse than believing the brokers. Having 35 people come through who walk away thinking the sellers are crazy for over pricing is not pretty good.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:22 PM

Hey Gabby,

How 'bout LAST WEEK'S SMALLEST SALES?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:23 PM

1:19, i'm glad you are finally admitting this.

has there or has there not been "bad economic news" now since last july? where have the prices gone? pretty much nowhere, if not up.

what about after the worst terror attack ever to hit the u.s. yep, prices still went up.

in the long term, they always do. brownstones have become status symbols. lots and lots and lots of people want one.

i don't see the price of diamonds, louis vuitton bags or porches being slashed by 50%.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:24 PM

If I lived in Manhattan (where many many buyers in Park Slope seem to come from) I would not schelp out to Brooklyn on a gorgeous Sunday afternoon to look at a house if I were not at least somewhat interested in buying it.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:26 PM

"I was watching CNN this weekend and they are now saying the economy is possibly on the verge of rebounding again."

I respect Warren Buffet's prediction (long, deep recession) more than that of CNN...

http://tinyurl.com/4va4eh

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:29 PM

The price of porches remains pretty stable, its based on the cost of wood and carpenter's hourly rates.

Thats what you meant right?

Of course, well paid handy men can by fast cars. Like porsches.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 1:57 PM

Well we could look at many threads here where people say that no one on Wall Street would want to set foot anywhere in Brooklyn besides Brooklyn Heights, so looks like we're safe Brooklynnative.

While I think they were being ridiculous, I do think that many of these Wall Streeters bought their 2-3 million dollar properties nearly outright, so I don't think there will be as much of a backlash as in the past. I think they've at least somewhat prepared for this, from my own experience.

In 1991, they weren't giving out 2 million dollar bonuses like lollipops like they have been over the past 5 years.

The couple people I know who work on Wall Street paid all cash for their home. It will take a couple consulting jobs to cover the maintenance and taxes on said apts.

Or they'll just raise the rent on their income producing units. Sorry again renters. You always get screwed.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:01 PM

1:24 - ask ANY ONE in finance and they will tell you prices are going to come way down. Most people in brooklyn work in a non-finance related field and truly have no clue. It's really extraordinary.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:03 PM

Keep clapping, Bubbleheads! This time it will be different!

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:04 PM

I don't think I need to worry.

Having bought my brownstone for 400K, and it would now be worth nearly 3 million (LOTS of people in my position) I could stand to lose some value on my home and still be quite fine.

Hell, even if it dropped a million bucks, I would be fine. Life goes on. It's not in our power to stop it. It will do what it wants to do.

To those who keep calling for the end of the world, you are the real losers in life who think that the value of your home directly correlates with the value of your life.

Just go enjoy your neighborhood and your house and stop thinking and talking about it so much. It's completely asinine.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:08 PM

In the 84-87 crash, 800,000 jobs were lost in NYC.

If we lose 30,000 jobs this time around and then some peripherally because of those, I think we'll be just fine.

Life always goes on. Nothing you can do about it, unless you'd like to hire them.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:18 PM

2.01 - you seem a bit confused. renters don't get "screwed", they just don't renew a lease if the rent goes up too much. Renters only pay for what they can afford.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:23 PM

We've already lost more than 30,000 jobs and the bad times have barely begun.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:24 PM

"We've already lost more than 30,000 jobs and the bad times have barely begun."

Oh well.

Life goes on.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:26 PM

2:08 pm:

Give me a million dollars.

I deserve it as much as you do, you smug bragging jackass with your lucky-ass $400K purchase.

Someday soon people are going to wake up to the injustice and disparity in this city and then some rough shit is going to hit the streets.

Until then, I'll take my million bucks, please.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:31 PM

2:08 - lucky for you. Lots of people - myself included - have their life savings tied up in their house thanks to the insane prices during the last few years - rents for a 2 or 3 bedroom in a decent neighborhood being astronomical and prices that just went up and up made many people finally jump in and buy. It is a big deal when prices go down because you just never know when you have to sell. just look at how screwed our economy is right now because of the falling prices in the rest of the country. To poo poo the issue is simply ignorant. That being said, besides the fact that I bought at the peak of the market, I am actually waiting eagerly for prices to fall so people I know who might otherwise have to leave brooklyn will again be able to afford to buy.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:31 PM

"I deserve it as much as you do, you smug bragging jackass with your lucky-ass $400K purchase."

Wait...you deserve it for what??

Did you buy in my neighborhood when NO ONE else wanted to live there, when crime was rampant and I had to take the train to get a slice of bread? Do you deserve it for getting on the PTA and improving your area school to now be one of the best in the city? Do you deserve it for going to the Park on Saturday morning to pick up used condoms and needles and planting flowers and trees?

I'm sorry...tell me exactly what you did to deserve this million dollars of MINE.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:40 PM

I think the people who bought their homes way back when it was very cheap don't get the point of this kind of thread. Of course, if you bought your home for a tiny fraction of what it's worth today you can afford for prices to come down - it doesn't really matter for people in that situation. The real question is for people in the market NOW, for whom the question of whether a drop is immminent, and how much of a drop, matters a lot. While I agree that in general, if you find the house of your dreams and it's within your budget, you probably will do OK in the long run - the problem is that often, a house is not the house of your dreams, there is some compromise involved and in today's market, the prices are so high that often you have to stretch a bit beyond your budget. And that's where the question of the market is important. Should I, as someone who is trading up, stretch to a very high budget which will put me at a bit of a financial burden to pay my monthly mortgage, or is it in fact smarter to sell my place now (when prices are indeed high), rent for a while, and watch the market for a year or two to see if I can get a better deal? For me, and many people like me, who are not super rich, the answer to that question is the difference between having some financial freedom vs. having a bigger mortgage than we'd like. My gut is that prime areas may not tank, but I've been observing softening and most people I speak, yes even brokers, concede that prices are probably not going to rise for the next year or so (beyond that it's hard to predict) but the fabulous gains of the last few years have run their course and the best possible scenario (for brokers/sellers that is), is that prices will stabilize at their current very high levels for a while. Another, equally plausible scenario, is that the credit crunch will eventually have a domino effect on the market and will cause prices, even in prime markets to soften, and possibly even come down somewhat. Will they tank? Probably not, but a 10-20% decline seems reasonable, especially given the shockingly rapid highs they have climbed to in such a relatively short time. As others have said, if they go down by 10-20%, the world will not end, but many buyers (like me) will at least be able to get some better deals!

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:40 PM

2:31: Get off your ass you lazy loser. Get a 2nd job and stop asking other people for handouts.

GO WORK FOR WHAT YOU WANT!

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:41 PM

"Lots of people - myself included - have their life savings tied up in their house"

And YOU are the reason why the economy is tanking. YOU are the stupid people who as you say invested your life savings in something most smart people know should not be used as an investment.

YOU are the person to blame for not buying in Midwood, Jackson Heights, Brighton Beach, Kensington or any other one of the millions of affordable NYC neighborhoods because you wanted to show off your place in Park Slope to your friends so they know how hot you are.

YOU are the reson that America sucks.

And now YOU are blaming it on everyone but yourself.

Typical.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:45 PM

2:45 - whoa, that's a pretty extreme reaction. I don't think people necessarily buy to "show off to their friends" - in fact, I think that's absurd. People buy because they want to live somewhere for many complex reasons. In NYC, many many people have the bulk of their wealth/income tied up in housing, since housing is so expensive, but I would not then blame such a person for being the reason America's economy is tanking. What a simplistic, mean thing to say. And does not add to this thread in a helpful, meaningful way. Dictating to someone what neighborhood they should live in is silly - and also, this person is NOT blaming others for anything, nor are they complaining per se about tying up lots of their money in housing. Simply admitting that your life saving have been spent on housing does not mean that you are treating your home as an investment - it can simply be a commentary on the high cost of housing in NYC, or the choice one has made in terms of neighborhood, etc. I wish this list did not get so nasty!

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 2:50 PM

Sorry but anyone who uses their life savings on a home purchase without leaving money for a rainy day (we are having one right now...and I don't mean the weather) are completely and totally stupid.

If Americans had money saved, there would be no significant ramifications when a recession rolls around. But instead, most Americans use credit to pay for everything.

This is why we don't hear about recessions in Europe...they are able to weather them much easier because people there didn't spend "their life savings" on a place to live.

And you don't think Europe is expensive also? Zurich, London, even now some of the B level cities are starting to rival NYC prices.

You people really should get out more.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:01 PM

2:08/2:40 --

"Did you buy in my neighborhood when NO ONE else wanted to live there, when crime was rampant and I had to take the train to get a slice of bread?..."

LOL, when exactly was it that people bought bread by the slice? I will assume you are exaggerating equally in the rest of your self-serving response.

Get off your cross, you're sitting on a pile of equity simply because at the time you happened to want to buy, prices happened to be historically low. Dumb luck. Which is why you deserve that equity no more than anyone else.

Now give me my million dollars.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:02 PM

Here's a little tidbit from today's Wall Street Journal. Some experts say that in 2-3 years, gas could top from $7-10 a gallon. Yes, you heard that right. Not ridiculous considering most Europeans pay about $9 a gallon currently. Americans have had it easy for far too long. Those days are over. Do you have ANY IDEA how many people are going to be clamoring to live in a city where you can use mass transit and walk. Even my parents who are DIE HARD suburbanites were saying recently that they might move to the city if gas keeps going up like this.

I suggest you all buck up, save some money, buy a modest apartment (no one with one kid needs 3000 or 4000sf) and start being a little kinder to mother earth.

Go plant a tree or two while you're at it.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:06 PM

I love how the only thing you brought up was the bread, 3:02.

Not the schools, not the crime, not the park.

The bread.

Shows your intelligence level.

IQ around what...45 or so?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:08 PM

2:45 - you are pretty sad if you think having a place in Park Slope is "hot." Not only is PS not hot, but I don't really think anywhere in Brooklyn is. It's lovely and we all love it here, but most of us are like the New Yorker cover - sent cowering out of Eden (Manhattan) because we couldn't afford it (I left in 1998). Personally, I don't have the suburban mcmansion mentality of buying homes to "show off" to friends but clearly - since you're projecting those pathetic motives on to me - you do.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:14 PM

3:06 is correct. the future of this planet lies in urbanism. we are on the very cusp of this and you will see more and more people gravitate (by necessity) to urban cores. it is a much more progressive way of life and allows for more social interaction while the world heads to a global and internet based existence. not to mention the fact that the planet will not support many more years of sprawl like we've seen over the past century.

some people know this is happening already and others simply prefer city life. there will come a day when the outer suburban areas will be all but desolate.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:14 PM

"...or is it in fact smarter to sell my place now (when prices are indeed high), rent for a while, and watch the market for a year or two to see if I can get a better deal?"

Very wise question to ask. I say do it - sell, rent, buy. If this is the biggest housing boom/bust since the 1920's, how do you know you'll see 2007 prices again in your lifetime? Lock those gains in. Doesn't matter the asset, all bubbles behave the same.

Smart money in >>> dumb money in >>> smart money out >>> dumb money stuck

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:18 PM

If you gave me 10 million dollars today, I would not move back to Manhattan, 3:14.

I think it's sad that you moved here because you HAD to, but please don't project that onto the rest of us that not only love Brooklyn, but PREFER it.

And you are a complete moron if you don't think people buy things to show them off. Handbags, shoes, homes, cars.

Do you live under a rock?

You sound really pathetic.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:19 PM

I think $7 sounds about right. I hope it comes.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:19 PM

the reason we dont hear about recessions in Europe is that Europe is no longer important to our economy. Europe has been insinificant since the 90's. I think its great that people who were early to Brooklyn are showing such high returns. However people who purchased from 2005 and on are going to be bagholders. Too many people who got the down payment from mommy and daddy and have interest only ARM's. We all know one or two of em and they will be what hurts the market in the coming years. They need the prices to go up or they will not be able to refi with there moderate income. Banks are not giving Jumbo's to people who dont make over 200. They will be forced to sell or go back to the folks for more money.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:20 PM

3:18 - renter.

You'd be an idiot to sell now and rent if you can afford your home now.

Have you noticed where prices have gone over the years in New York? What if prices two years from now are 10% HIGHER?

You will be a fool and probably have to leave nyc for the ever deadening burbs.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:21 PM

3:08 - read people, read! The poster DID mention the park and the schools - stop being so darn mean folks!

As for the urban way of life and death of suburbs - well, I can hardly see suburbs totally dying - the cost of living in the city will probably cancel out gas costs and some people simply prefer being around more greenery. I myself prefer the city but come from a suburb and know plenty of folks who are very attached to that lifestyle thank you very much.

Why must this list always devolve into such absolutes? The person who predicts a softening of the market, maybe by 10-20% sounds reasonable. Not every future prediction has to be total denial and everything is roses (on the one hand), or doom and gloom the world will end (on the other). Why can't the truth lie in between? Yes, the market has moved along at an unsustainable clip the last few years, but yes, cities are more desirable - so perhaps this means that, while things will not crash (due to shifts benefiting city life), they can indeed soften (due to poor economy and price houses having reached stratospheric heights of late). I think people looking to buy now are in a decent position since there is not the frenzy of the past few years, but there is also a likelihood that indeed cities in the long run will be decent investments.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:22 PM

"Europe is no longer important to our economy"

Until it's time to defend NYC real estate prices.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:22 PM

Actually, Europe has helped prop up the NYC market with their strong euros. If the euro drops, and/or if europeans stop buying so much NYC real estate, that indeed will have an effect on the NYC market. Also the world in general is way more interconnected so of course Europe is important to our economy!

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:26 PM

Yeah, I'm a renter, 3:21. But you are absolutely clueless if you think prices will be 10% higher in two years. This market's on the way down baby. So, yes, if you like your equity you should sell now and keep it. Then buy back in at bottom. If you don't care too much about your equity and enjoy your place, then don't.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:27 PM

Justification of the "Metoo" crowd! I'm getting a kick off this thread! I find myself not alone in spotting the dumb-fucks. You think things are not bad, huh. Gas stations are empty also, there is less traffic. Used car sales has fallen off a cliff.

A good friend of mine was laid off! He worked for a very big bank for 23 fucking years! Yep, 23 years! And guess what assholes, they laid off people with just as many years. Yeah I know, The What is real hateful and shit but, some of you are walking around with flagpoles sticking out of your asses.

Oh, Atlantic yards is being assfuck covertly. Ratner is moving to NEWARK NJ LMMFAO! I wonder what the "value" of your Brownstones will be then. You are fuck, RIP Mutant Real Estate Bubble!

The What (Tick.. Tick.. Tick..)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:27 PM

3:18--

"I say do it - sell, rent, buy. If this is the biggest housing boom/bust since the 1920's, how do you know you'll see 2007 prices again in your lifetime? Lock those gains in."

Friends of mine did that in 2003. Sold their co-op, locked in those gains (they bought in the '90s). Whoo, those big 2003 dollars! Be a shame to lose those!

Didn't do them much good when they ended up buying a house in 2005.

Timing the market is brilliant--when you do it at exactly the right time. Do it wrong and it's a disaster. Fine for playing the stock market with some extra money. Not a good idea for people spending their money on their principal residence.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:28 PM

How about when everyone I know told me NOT to buy a place in 2001 because it was right after the terrorist attacks, that the city was going to tank and everyone was going to leave????

OOPS.

Glad I didn't listen!!!! 1 million dollars later!!!!

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:35 PM

"Fine for playing the stock market with some extra money. Not a good idea for people spending their money on their principal residence."

Wrong. Your friends fouled up. They shouldn't have bought back in yet. You buy back in at the bottom. We were just about calling the top in 2005. It's easier to play RE than the stock markets. It moves very slowly. Stocks crash overnight.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:36 PM

It does seem different today than in 2003 or 2005. I don't recall much economic gloom and doom back then, nor the kind of lending tightening we're experiencing now. Friends of mine just sold their place and had some second thoughts and the realtor warned them to sell now since the buyers (who have a very high income, but not much cash) would not be able to qualify for the same loan today. If this isn't the peak, it'll be shocking to see what is. And even brokers seem to admit that even if prices don't go way down, it's hard to see how they will continue to race up anytime soon and that it should be a waiting game for a year or two. No brokers I knew were saying anything like that in 2003-2005 - everything was coming up roses, not like today.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:42 PM

Why are people saying 2005 was the top, when in 2006 and 2007 prices (at least in Manhattan) continue to rise by double digits?

Do you just not like to live in truth??

I saw another example on here today of someone who bought a studio for 265K or something in 2006 and sold this month for 379k.

So how was 2005 the top?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:46 PM

"If this isn't the peak, it'll be shocking to see what is"

Take a look at London, Dubai, Sydney, Copenhagen, Zurich or Hong Kong then.

NYC is considered a bargain compared to all these cities and many others.

New York was undervalued for many years. It is now a major destination for tourists, movies and celebrities. It's a different city than it was 30 years ago.

Many say the best.

Prices are still no where near the top of worldwide prices. I believe even today, both San Francisco and Honolulu have home prices higher than NYC.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:49 PM

Actually, it seems that 2007 was the true top - look at NYT real estate section of late, or zillow, or NY magazine, or talk to some brokers. While some people are predicting a crash, many people think a more likely scenario is stagnation/softening. But where are there credible sources predicting a continuing racing upwards? I certainly don't know any - 2007 really does seem to the top.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:52 PM

Having been in the market for a brownston in PS - I can see that most of the houses I saw more than 6 months ago are still on the market after a price reduction - so while some properties seem to sell - all the houses close to the park are not - very little has moved since last summer -

now while i approached this site for info and color, why is it so uncivilized. Does this reflect the neighborhood ? If you disagree or have another point you must be an idiot, or even worse a banker ?

People move cause they can't afford the space they would like in manhattan, others do cause they love the area, some people have limitless checkbooks and others (even at more than 2 MM check their numbers ) -

The only thing for certain is that the houses on 1st st, 2nd st, and 3rd st as well as Montgomery (between 7th and PPW) were/have been listed for a long time and are not selling - don't know what that means but seems like some numbers just dont add up.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:55 PM

3:46 2005 was the top when you adjust to inflation. Prices are about the same they were at the start of 2006. So even though it may not feel like you lost money you would be down about 8 percent. The highest prices were in 2006 but its deceptive. Manhattan has gone up but those numbers are a little off also. 2005 was the top

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:56 PM

Well if 2007 really was the top, and so many people on here claim that 2005 was the top, do you have ANY CLUE how much I made in those two years while you morons were all saying it was only downhill from here in 2005?

Try hundreds of thousands of dollars.

If I've learned one thing, it's that 99.9% of people on this blog don't know anything.

I would NEVER take advice from someone on an anonymous blog. Especially one filled with many bitter people who watched everyone around them make a million bucks in the last 8 years.

I know, I know...paper wealth, paper wealth.

Tell that to the people who leave notes on my door asking to buy my house for 5 times what I paid for it.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 3:57 PM

um....3:56 #1...this thread is about two of the said houses on 1st street which you just said aren't selling...that just sold! some people's idiocy never cease to amaze me.

you posted your same comment last week and everyone thought your were nuts then, as we continue to think this week. nothing has changed. you are still barking up the wrong tree.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:00 PM

Which 1st Street house sold ? 535 ? What is the idiocy involved ?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:07 PM

423 and 285 1st Street sold.

Do you not see what this thread is about up top??

LAST WEEKS BIGGEST SALES

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:12 PM

no the thread is about the market too and what is the right price for property - I see that you can be narrow even in your readings ....and narrow to avoid what isnt selling -

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:16 PM

I see that you are new to NYC, 4:16.

There was once a time that there were 200 homes for sale in Park Slope at any given moment.

Now there are a dozen.

Sign of a disaster waiting to happen?

Doesn't sound like it.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:24 PM

ATTN: The What

I am writing a piece for New York magazine and would like to talk to you, on/off the record.

You can reach me at adam (dot) sternbergh (at) nymag (dot) com.

Thanks.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:34 PM

You are right 4:24, I am new, as I have only been here 15 years, of which I have owned property for 12 of those. I am not waiting for a disaster, neither hoping for one. As much as possible just figuring out right pricing for property. I understand that the right price will be what the buyer is willing to pay. Although spoiled by recent markets, maybe 6 months in the market is not a long time but the right time for a $2MM + property to sell. And price takes into account condition, location and just that feeling that you found your home.

It seems that although only a dozen properties are for sale in PS, and that is definetely very tight inventory, very little of those with asking prices close to $3 MM are selling.

I also see that both properties mentioned in the posting are multi-family homes as opposed to the single-family homes that are not selling. The economics I am sure are quite different.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:46 PM

"Do you have ANY IDEA how many people are going to be clamoring to live in a city where you can use mass transit and walk."

Except for the lack of jobs. Don't forget that. No matter how expensive gas gets, it doesn't matter how much they might want to live here. No jobs equals no arriving masses.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:50 PM

"I also see that both properties mentioned in the posting are multi-family homes as opposed to the single-family homes that are not selling. The economics I am sure are quite different."

Yes, some people are buying 2 million dollar homes to live in 1/3 of it, vs. some people who think they need 4000 sf for them and their only child to be happy.

I'll take the former anyday.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:52 PM

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Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:54 PM

After EVERY recession, 4:50....NYC has brought jobs back at a faster rate than it lost them in tough times.

You do realize that is how the city is still gaining in population, or do you think all the new arrivals are out of work, homeless people?

The green revolution is going to create hundreds of thousands of jobs across the country in the coming years.

Just as the tech boom, dot com boom, real estate boom have done for the past couple decades.

Things change. The sooner you can accept it, the better off everyone will be.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:54 PM

4:52 - and it may also just be a wise financial decision (with some risk of course) and not just an ego based on space. Someone may be able to afford the $2 MM home with the income from two units, and maybe stay that way, maybe be able to someday turn the house back into a single family. Don't know I don't have a crystal ball as to the economy, the real estate market, or what some buyers motivations are. But the math may justify buying a multi rather than a single. But which one is worth more per/sqf?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 4:58 PM

"ATTN: The What

I am writing a piece for New York magazine and would like to talk to you, on/off the record.

You can reach me at adam (dot) sternbergh (at) nymag (dot) com.

Thanks."

For fucking what????!!! To be misquoted or to find out who I am. Thanks but no fucking thanks Adam (Brownstoner)

If you ring my bell at my bunker the .50 cal is coming out!

But if you want to know how I feel read this!

Illusion of control

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion_of_control

And..

Edward Bernays

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays

This is the fucking framework where there assholes on this Blog think their in control!!!!!!!!!

Read this shit Adam and get fucking back to me!!!!!!!!!

The What Someday this war is gonna end.....

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 5:28 PM

Some make it happen, some watch it happen, and some say, "What happened?"

keep sitting on the sidelines guys. keep wondering how people can afford what they can. keep wondering who they are. keep wondering why they choose to live where they do.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 5:34 PM

Prices are rising. The economy is looking up.

Signed

The Where

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 5:38 PM

"keep sitting on the sidelines guys"

Will do, and thanks for the only bit of sound advice on this thread.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 6:44 PM

one of the recent open house picks in the south slope is in contract (11th street). that one went pretty fast...

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 7:20 PM

Link to 11th Street listing please?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 8:23 PM

that's impossible, 7:20.

but that woman has seen every townhouse listing in park slope and says that none are selling...

you must be mistaken.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 8:28 PM

Well, for all those thinking NYC is immune from national economic woes, see today's paper:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/nyregion/28york.html?ref=nyregion

The arrogance on this list amazes me, among people who think the market can only continue skyrocketing. Maybe the trends towards urbanism, low inventory, growing population etc will keep the market from tanking, but to assume that everything can only be rosy seems like a case of denial. Owners will be lucky to maintain current prices over the next few years, or even to see only a mild slip of 5-10% (or 15-20 for that matter, given the run-up)...

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 9:22 PM

yeah, cause the new york times has a history of being really great with predicting future real estate growth...or not.

please, 9:22.

nobody here is stupid enough to read ONE article and believe it as the gospel.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 9:24 PM

Excuse me 9:24, this is not the only article recently on this topic.

Here's another:

http://nymag.com/realestate/features/45567/

Of course, no one knows. I'm not saying these articles are proof of anything, only that there are credible opinions out there either predicting a downturn (NYT) or showing evidence that one has already started (NY magazine). But there are those who act as if any downward pressure on prices is impossible - now what makes you think THAT is gospel?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 9:32 PM

oh riiiiight....

NEW YORK MAG!!!

how could i forget! the pulitzer prize winning economics magazine, nymag!!!!

i feel so stupid now.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 9:40 PM

I believe the people on this thread and others most definitely say that while prices have skyrocketed that they aren't bound to continue to do so.

That's why they are pointing out that most smart people don't view their homes as investments. A lot of people got lucky and are now sitting on a pile of cash. Who keeps saying prices keep going up like crazy?? I hear no one saying that.

I hear a lot of people saying that everything is overpriced, that there is little inventory and that prices seem flat after years of growth adding up to over 300%. I see a lot of people claiming that prices will drop 50% (absurd). But the only people who say prices keep going through the roof are those accusing other people of doing so.

Are you just projecting your feelings of bitterness that you didn't buy? I really don't get it.

Not ONE PERSON on this blog would claim that price appreciation will continue at the same pace it was the past decade. NO ONE.

So why do you bring it up all the time? A think any person who took psych 101 could tell you that.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 9:45 PM

9:40 - well the NYT has won lots of Pulitzers so I don't understand your sarcastic tone.

I do think bitterness fuels a lot of the more outrageous responses on this list. A more measured approach would be to admit that prices are highly unlikely, if not impossible, to continue skyrocketing. Will they crash? No one knows, so no one should insist they do. But to make fun of people to dare to say that prices may stop rising, and yes, may dip a bit, is childish.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 10:26 PM

Tulips.

Acres

and acres

of

t u l i p s .

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 10:26 PM

If there has been 300% growth, why is a 50% drop "absurd"?

It happened before after a much smaller (and one might say "rational") growth cycle.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 10:30 PM

even in the worst housing crash only saw declines of 30-40%.

and that was when the city went to total hell.

why would you think now that the city is disneyland with such low crime and a starbucks on every corner with kids frolicking in every city park, would the price declines be even worse?

makes no sense.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 11:12 PM

anybody who has ever taken Econ 101 knows not to buy know. this is a bagholder year. the smart people are selling, what are you doing?

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 11:32 PM

you people are so funny.

if you say prices are low, this is actually the time to buy.

every heard the phrase buy low, sell high?

uhhh, yeah.

didn't think so. you'd rather wait another couple years, right? till the prices are higher.

meanwhile i'll have two less years left to pay on my mortgage.

can't wait to see the place paid off when i turn 60 and you're renting that studio in coney island for $10,000 a month.

sounds like a loverly retirement you are planning.

Posted by: guest at April 28, 2008 11:47 PM

11:47 - the thing is, prices are not low now. That's the whole problem. Prices remain very high still, propped up by low inventory and what many say is irrational exuberance. That said, houses I've been visiting (we sold our place recently, for a high price, as we need more space and are trading up) have brokers saying that the owners are more negotiable. A few houses we've looked at are lingering and even having price cuts. But I think the full effect of the poor economy and tightening credit will take a while to ripple through the NYC housing market. So now is actually not a great time to buy, but it may be soon. If we find the right property, we will buy anyway - the next place we buy we plan to stay in for the rest of our lives, so it's not an "investment" we plan to sell or flip. But, we also plan to take our time in looking since it really does not seem like prices are going up any more any time soon - even our broker advised us, basically, to cash out now, after experiencing the biggest run-up in such a short time we may experience in our lifetimes (pretty much everyone agrees that the increases of the last 5-10 years have been unprecedented). Many other brokers I've spoken to have said the same. We're not "waiting by the sidelines" for prices to plummet, since we're actively looking for a house - but we're also in no rush since we have a decent and inexpensive rental to tide us over while we look, and the comfort of knowing that we will have great leverage in this market to negotiate a purchase with lots of cash (and no stress to have to sell our place if the market does indeed head south). And, if we're lucky, and the many predictions we've heard turn out to be true, we may even spend less than we've budgeted if indeed prices go down...We bought before, and profited handsomely from it, but don't expect to profit again like that, and we are not bitter renters. In fact, if we wanted to today, with our cash, we could buy any number of properties, but we'd rather wait for the right one and exploit the upper hand that we now seem to have as very well-qualified buyers.

Posted by: guest at April 29, 2008 12:38 AM

11:12 - The last time the market crashed was in the early to mid 90's. I would hardly say the city was going to hell - I lived here then and it was a far cry from the 70s, when the city really went to hell. But still in the early 90s, prices of some places went down by nearly 40-50%. The variables for why are complex, but Wall Street troubles (which started in 1987 but took a few more years to reverberate to housing market) factored in and echo problems today. I don't know where prices are headed since truly there are so many variables, but to say that it's absurd for prices to dip 30-40% does not seem historically accurate. My gut tells me that they won't dip that far, but I do think they could easily dip by some amount...

Posted by: guest at April 29, 2008 9:13 AM

12:38 Finally someone who makes sense here - since we are in the same position. It is tiresome that in this posting it seems that if you think prices may stabilize or go down you are an idiot who cant afford the market, otherwise you have to cacept that the market will NEVER crash in NY, although it did in the early 90s, but who remembers that.

Also looking for a house and waiting for the right property at the right price, ready approved and with cash in hand. Interesting our broker mentioned the other dy that the number of people in our position seems to be growing, less people willing to put an offer for a property and willing to wait. Then again, as always, if the right property comes around we will make our move now.

Posted by: guest at April 29, 2008 9:27 AM

You guys have some pretty idiotic brokers then.

MY broker husband said that the sales volume this past month in Park Slope, Ft. Greene and Brooklyn Heights has been one of the best he's seen.

So clearly not EVERYONE is waiting to buy.

Wait all you want though...I see almost nothing on the market...and when something nice does come (see 11th street) it's gone in about 2 weeks.

Even the condos at the Vermeil are selling now that the building is completed. And they are NOT cheap.

Heard that 4 more apts in On Prospect Park went into contract as well. Things are moving...not as fast as they might have 3 years ago, but people still have money they'd like to spend on a home...

Posted by: guest at April 29, 2008 10:41 AM

From the New York Times.

"American homes are losing their value at the fastest rate in two decades, according to a closely watched report released on Tuesday.

In the 12 months ended in February, the Case-Shiller home price index, which measures the value of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan regions, fell 13.6 percent, the worst decline since records began in 1987. A broader 20-city index dropped 12.7 percent.

The slump in home prices was more severe than the worst point of the recession of the 1990s, the last time values fell so far, so quickly.

As foreclosures rise and mortgage lenders tighten their standards, the market is expected to continue to suffer under the pressure of sagging inventories and a dearth of qualified buyers, economists said."

Posted by: guest at April 29, 2008 12:06 PM

I would like to point out to everyone that we are not in a recession yet.

See this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/business/30econ-web.html?hp.

The economy is still growing! Hooray!!! I know only slightly but it still grew! Let's hope the stimulus package and a new president (thank God) will kick things back into high gear. My point is energy breeds energy people...stay positive!

There are way too many doom and gloomers on this site focusing on the negative.

Posted by: guest at April 30, 2008 2:04 PM