Tuesday Links

Meh Meh

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 8:50 AM

Yep, You site is fucked Brownstoner. Slow connections, Double posting and low turnout. I think you should open up my IP address. This is why is slow. I think you are hard headed, oh well have it your way. The What got you but, the war is still going on.

The What (LMMFAO)

Someday this war is gonna end.....

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 9:11 AM

...but it does not swallow.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 9:12 AM

==========================================================================
Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July
2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
==========================================================================
-------------- US Composite-20 City Index -------------
Monthly % -2.36% -2.10% -2.08% -1.38% -0.85% -0.68% -0.37%
3-Mth Annualized -23.21% -20.09% -15.93% -11.03% -7.31% -5.40% -3.60%
Yearly % -10.71% -9.01% -7.66% -6.05% -4.92% -4.28% -3.79%
Index Level 180.65 185.01 188.97 192.98 195.68 197.35 198.70
-------------- US Composite-10 City Index -------------
Monthly % -2.33% -2.22% -2.14% -1.38% -0.89% -0.77% -0.50%
3-Mth Annualized -23.69% -20.68% -16.27% -11.51% -8.30% -6.64% -4.77%
Yearly % -11.41% -9.74% -8.33% -6.66% -5.50% -4.85% -4.37%
Index Level 196.06 200.73 205.29 209.77 212.70 214.61 216.28
==========================================================================

==============================================================
Current Previous 3-Mth YoY% Index
MoM% MoM% Annual% Change Level
==============================================================
US Composite-20 -2.36% -2.10% -23.21% -10.71% 180.65
--------------------------------------------------------------
Charlotte -0.15% -0.59% -6.64% 1.75% 131.70
New York -0.90% -1.07% -9.54% -5.78% 200.49
Boston -1.22% -1.68% -15.02% -3.39% 162.59
Denver -1.53% -1.78% -19.29% -5.06% 128.98
Seattle -1.76% -1.21% -16.26% -1.25% 181.62
Atlanta -1.82% -1.45% -18.77% -4.77% 127.08
Dallas -1.83% -1.31% -17.42% -3.33% 118.56
Portland -2.01% -0.64% -12.92% -0.55% 178.81
Chicago -2.22% -0.98% -15.34% -6.60% 156.47
San Diego -2.47% -3.41% -31.48% -16.74% 197.45
Washington DC -2.54% -2.43% -23.46% -10.89% 212.83
Miami -2.72% -2.64% -27.60% -19.33% 225.40
Tampa -2.74% -1.63% -20.89% -14.95% 194.64
San Francisco -2.86% -3.20% -31.48% -13.21% 183.81
Minneapolis -2.98% -2.09% -24.46% -10.00% 151.16
==============================================================
Current Previous 3-Mth YoY% Index
MoM% MoM% Annual% Change Level
==============================================================
Detroit -3.03% -1.84% -26.41% -15.08% 100.17
Cleveland -3.19% -1.08% -23.30% -8.53% 108.49
Los Angeles -3.70% -3.08% -34.55% -16.48% 224.41
Phoenix -4.05% -3.49% -35.24% -18.23% 180.06
Las Vegas -5.10% -2.92% -36.82% -19.29% 186.05
==============================================================

This is the Case Shiller Index

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

I hope this comes out right. What your are seeing is a fucking meltdown. I know ,I know Brownstones are going for.... Get you head around these numbers, it's over

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 9:19 AM

Whatever, What.

I looked up that silly Case Shiller index wondering how on earth they know all about the value of my Brooklyn brownstone based on home values in Kansas and hmmm, interesting, found out many people think there are a lot of good reasons to question the way they get their stats. Case Shiller counts houses that have sold twice within a year to make their report. Which uh, does not apply to the value of my home, sorry!

Here's an excerpt from a writeup about it:

http://activerain.com/blogsview/370858/The-Case-Against-Case

"The first problem is the small statistical sampling. In any given year there may be at most about 5-7% of all homes selling. It's a much smaller group that sells twice in a short period, which is what Case Shiller is looking for. To "keep sample sizes large enough to create meaningful price change averages", they use a "three month moving average algorithm". I would argue that this is still far too small a sampling."...

..."The most weight is applied to sales about a year apart. Now let's think about this: Who sells their home after just one year? It's often a foreclosure or some other distressed situation. No wonder the prices are so much lower. In fact, per Case "Subsequent sales by mortgage lenders of foreclosed properties are included if repeat sales pairs, because they are arms-length transactions". Right...Ok"...

..."Imagine, someone buys a house for $200,000, loses it in foreclosure and the bank sells it for $160,000. An investor buys it, paints it and sells it for $200,000. Case Shiller index includes the foreclosure sale because it happened after one year and excludes the investor sale because it took place in less than six months. According to the index, the property value dropped $40,000. The point here is that most weight is afforded to sales that may be distress situations.

There are ten main statistical areas in the index plus ten other areas. Averages from the ten large metropolitan areas are then used to determine the U.S average. Again, this is another example of a small statistical sampling.

In addition, you have the same problem that exists with all methods of coming up with average sales increases/declines. What really matters in real estate is the status of a specific property rather than a whole area. According to Case Shiller, my area, Minneapolis dropped in value 6.6% last year. The actual drop in average sale price was 1.3%. But there were great variances within the area. On area within the metropolitan area dropped 33%, while another increased by 12%. What's most important to homeowners, sellers and buyers is the status of their neighborhood rather than national or even city averages."

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 10:45 AM

And yet there is another push for parents to complete the annual school surveys which are a complete waste of money. I am trying to figure out a way to boycott it without hurting my kids' schools. How many "consultants" will Tweed hire? Is that computer system that allows teachers to identify student weaknesses up and running? How much was spent that and will teachers use it? And shouldn't teachers be able to identify a particular student's area of weakness anyway?

I'm moving to Charlotte.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 10:55 AM

I hate graffti

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 11:14 AM

Good luck in Charlotte 10:55 AM

My sister, a public school teacher, just moved there after teaching 8 years in Brooklyn schools. She has more problems down there both with kids and the heirarchy than she ever did in Brooklyn.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 11:24 AM

Good luck in Charlotte 10:55 AM

My sister, a public school teacher, just moved there after teaching 8 years in Brooklyn schools. She has more problems down there both with kids and the heirarchy than she ever did in Brooklyn.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 11:32 AM

Yeah I would not expect to find better students in Charlotte schools. The economy is decent down there because of the job market but that city is very suburban and Southern. Raleigh or Chapel Hill is where to go if you want smarter hipper parents and kids.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 11:33 AM

I was being facetious about Charlotte. Only mentioned it because it is the only city where property values rose (see the What's chart).

Seriously, remaining here is contingent on what the next 72 hours and May bring regarding middle and high school acceptances.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 11:46 AM

10:45's description of Case Shiller's methodology is wrong. Here is the correct description: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_CS_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf

If you want to ignore Case Shiller, the better reasons are (1) it counts only single family homes and therefore misses the entire NYC condo and coop and 2-4 family markets, and (2) that, like every other national statistic, it lumps NYC together with its 'burbs.

NYC+'burbs dropped 6%. Given the Case-Shiller methodology, that really means the suburbs dropped 6%. You could assume that Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn are a separate market -- that no one chooses between those areas and Westchester or Port Washington or Hoboken or whatever -- so that prices drops in the 'burbs will not affect us here.

You could also assume that the brownstone market is immune to job losses on Wall Street, to the gap between prices and rental values and the gap between price increases and income increases, to the drop in the dollar, and to recession fears.

After all, real estate always goes up in NYC even when it drops everywhere else. Just like in Tokyo.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 11:55 AM

10:45's description of Case Shiller's methodology is wrong. Here is the correct description: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_CS_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf

If you want to ignore Case Shiller, the better reasons are (1) it counts only single family homes and therefore misses the entire NYC condo and coop and 2-4 family markets, and (2) that, like every other national statistic, it lumps NYC together with its 'burbs.

NYC+'burbs dropped 6%. Given the Case-Shiller methodology, that really means the suburbs dropped 6%. You could assume that Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn are a separate market -- that no one chooses between those areas and Westchester or Port Washington or Hoboken or whatever -- so that prices drops in the 'burbs will not affect us here.

You could also assume that the brownstone market is immune to job losses on Wall Street, to the gap between prices and rental values and the gap between price increases and income increases, to the drop in the dollar, and to recession fears.

After all, real estate always goes up in NYC even when it drops everywhere else. Just like in Tokyo.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 11:57 AM

10:45's description of Case Shiller's methodology is wrong. There is no reason to think that it is overstating the crisis (except to the extent that it understated the bubble). Here is the correct description: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_CS_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf

If you want to ignore Case Shiller, the better reasons are (1) it counts only single family homes and therefore misses the entire NYC condo and coop and 2-4 family markets, and (2) like every other national statistic, it lumps NYC together with its suburbs.

NYC + 'burbs dropped 6%. Given the Case-Shiller methodology, that really means the suburbs dropped 6%.

You could assume that Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn are an entirely separate market -- that no one chooses between those areas and Westchester or Queens or Port Washington or Hoboken or Orange or whatever -- so that prices drops in the suburbs will not affect us here. You could also assume that the brownstone market is immune to job losses on Wall Street, to the gap between prices and rental values and the gap between price increases and income increases, to the drop in the dollar, and to recession fears.

After all, real estate always goes up in NYC even when it drops everywhere else. Markets don't work here the way they work everywhere else. Just like in Tokyo, or during the dot.com bubble, the normal laws of supply and demand have been repealed.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 12:04 PM

10:45's description of Case Shiller's methodology is wrong. There is no reason to think that it is overstating the crisis (except to the extent that it understated the bubble). Here is the correct description: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_CS_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf

If you want to ignore Case Shiller, the better reasons are (1) it counts only single family homes and therefore misses the entire NYC condo and coop and 2-4 family markets, and (2) like every other national statistic, it lumps NYC together with its suburbs.

NYC + 'burbs dropped 6%. Given the Case-Shiller methodology, that really means the suburbs dropped 6%.

You could assume that Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn are an entirely separate market -- that no one chooses between those areas and Westchester or Queens or Port Washington or Hoboken or Orange or whatever -- so that prices drops in the suburbs will not affect us here. You could also assume that the brownstone market is immune to job losses on Wall Street, to the gap between prices and rental values and the gap between price increases and income increases, to the drop in the dollar, and to recession fears.

After all, real estate always goes up in NYC even when it drops everywhere else. Markets don't work here the way they work everywhere else. Just like in Tokyo, or during the dot.com bubble, the normal laws of supply and demand have been repealed.

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 12:07 PM

The MTA is just unbelievable!

Posted by: guest at March 25, 2008 5:51 PM