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March 10, 2008
Future Brooklyn May Be All Washed Up, Says Scientist

A Columbia scientist has produced a NYC version of "An Inconvenient Truth," Gotham Gazette reports, showing how climate change could wreak havoc on New York City over the next 80 years. The report, put together by Klaus Jacob, a special research scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, illustrates how new developments on the Brooklyn waterfront—especially in Williamsburg and Greenpoint—could be flooded by strong storms:
Areas of the Greenpoint-Williamsburg waterfront slated for development that will bring tens of thousands of new residents stand a major risk of being flooded by a hurricane, according to the city's own maps. Sewers in Greenpoint already cannot deal with the rainwater from severe storms, such as those of last July and August...Much of the new development "will occur along the East River waterfront, which is subject to flooding from storm surges. New construction will result in significant changes to the floodplain that may reduce its capacity for flood retention or alter stormwater flow characteristics, said Brooklyn Community Board One's Rezoning Task Force in comments on the draft of an Environmental Impact Statements on rezoning the area to accommodate more development.
Scary stuff. The city is starting to try to face the disastrous problems that climate change may cause by creating a multi-agency Climate Change Task Force aimed at protecting infrastructure and looking to upgrade sewer systems. Jacob, meanwhile, says the city should reconsider allowing any new development on low-lying, flood prone areas. "That," he says, is the "price to be paid for pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."
City by the Sea—or Underneath It? [Gotham Gazette]
Klaus H. Jacob illustration from Gotham Gazette.
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Comments
the sewers in Greenpoint are poor - which is odd considering the sewage treatment plant is right there. The one underneath the intersection of Huron st. and Manhattan ave. is particularly bad - it always smells really awful there. Numerous 311 calls have done nothing.
Its the same one which exploded back in the day leaving a huge hole.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 9:28 AM
Hopefully, the floods will drown the tWhat from the basement she rents from grandma and we won't have to read her stupid posts anymore.
A GED will not get you very far, Miss tWhat. Go back to school, get a job and buy the place you live in. Grandma is getting tired of feeding your lazy ass.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 9:32 AM
My neighbors & I joke that if the water levels rise high enough the sunken B/Q line running through our back yards in Ditmas Park will be a canal and we'll have beach front property.
Posted by: tag482 at March 10, 2008 9:35 AM
Run for the hills!
A Columbia Professor says we are doomed, DOOMED! We must atone, the judgement day is nigh.
Posted by: sam at March 10, 2008 9:50 AM
You won't be able to use your canoe in Brooklyn Bridge Park, but don't sell it...your kids may need it to get to the grocery store.
Posted by: Hal at March 10, 2008 10:00 AM
It's already been completely debunked that "climate change" (we can't use the term "global warming" anymore because of this year's very cold world-wide winter wide), did not cause Katrina and Rita, and does not cause hurricanes.
So there's your inconvenient truth for the day.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:06 AM
Global warming or not, hurricanes still form and NYC is historically a target.
Even if you deny climate change, there is no denying history. This scenario is inevitable.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:10 AM
Aren't they saying now that climate change will cause ocean levels to drop? Scientists always contradict each other in roughly ten year cycles.
But if this prof is right, I would recommend selling your loft in Tribeca and buying in Brooklyn Heights. The Heights looks high and dry in that rendering.
Posted by: sam at March 10, 2008 10:11 AM
Look on the bright side. Brooklyn will have more poolside bars.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:23 AM
in 80 years, America will be a ghostown. Climate change and water levels will be the least of our concerns.
Look to the future global economic collapse. We'll be -lucky- to be merely drowning.
You folks are so naive.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:37 AM
"in 80 years, America will be a ghostown"
So where are 350 Million People going in 80- years? Are you suggesting that due to decreased economic activity, everybody is going to die? That doesnt sound naive, or idiotic, at all.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:40 AM
I can't believe people are still doubting global warming when its already occuring. I suppose you're the creationist/flat-earth/911 was caused by the government loonies.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:49 AM
Typical Republican thinking these days:
Deny global warming exists, believe that Saddam actually had Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Believe that gays marrying are dangerous to America, don't believe that invading countries that didnt attck us is not dangerous for america.
Believe that Corporations shold not be regualted, dont beleive that unregulated companies will polute, ripp off consumers, rape and pillage (i.e. sub prime mortgage mess)
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:53 AM
"I can't believe people are still doubting global warming when its already occuring"
I dont think people doubt global warming, as much as they doubt it is not a naturally occuring cycle or is a direct result of human activity.
Research has a long way to go, and just becuase Al Gore thinks manbearpig is a super serial, doesnt make it scientific fact.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:57 AM
Typical NY Hipster know it all loser. Anyone who doesnt think like me must be a "Republican".
The world is more than Republicans and Democrats. Sad that you define your us vs them existence based on some contrived political machine.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:59 AM
When was the last time a hurricane made land fall on any of the five boroughs? A hundred and fifty years? The middle and east end of Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island have their occassional hurricanes. Gloria was the last strong one. But NYC's location makes it an unlikely target, except of course in Hollywood sci-fi movies.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:05 AM
Some of us "Flat earthers" are old enough to remember the 1970's when scientists were predicting a modern ice age.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:06 AM
We should check with DEC to see what impact this will have on the marine life under Brooklyn Bridge Park!
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:09 AM
You must be very young or very stupid, or both 11:05 - Here is a timeline of recent Hurricane History in NYC.
No it doent happen every year, but not every 150 years either:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricanehistory.shtml
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:13 AM
11:13 - I think you are the stupid one or are unable to read - the link you posted says on the very 1st line that the 1821 hurricane was one of the only hurricanes to ever pass directly over modern day NYC.
thats almost 190 years ago.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:17 AM
Really, the world's leading meterological scientists have nothing on the climatological understanding of Joe sixpack in his Flatbush armchair.
By "scientists" predicting modern ice age I presume you mean something you remember reading in the Daily News.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:21 AM
I have lived in NYC all my life (I'm not that young) and i never remember a hurricane actually hitting the city. I remember the near-hysteria of the news media over Gloria. But it turned out to be nothing but a morning thunder storm. The sun was out by 2:00.
Of course it is entirely possible that a large asteroid can fall directly on NY bay. That would have a significant effect on real estate prices.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:22 AM
11:05/11:17 - Severe flooding depicted on the map is not contingent on a Hurricane "Passing Directly over NYC".
Read the History and you will see that NY is defiantely a ripe target.
Actually nevermind, 11:21 is right. I guess we should beleive you over centuries of empiricle data and statistical studies by the meteroligical professionals.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:28 AM
I used to work downtown and when hurricane gloria was about four hundred miles away the media started saying that the World Trade Center towers would sway violently and glass shards would fall on pedestrians and that workers in the area should on no acount go to work. I stayed home. Around 2:00 PM when the sun was shining after a gentle squall, my boss, who was at the ofice of course, phoned me up and called me a pussy. He was right. I have never taken the hysterics of the media seriously since. And that has served me well.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:30 AM
11:28
There is a rule in class.
When arguing, don't use words you can't spell.
"empiricle data and statistical studies by the meteroligical professionals."
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:32 AM
11:32
yours are words to live by.
When I was in High School my classmates and I were told by earnest scientists that the world's oil reserves would be completely depleted by 1979 and that empirical studies confirmed that the earth was entering a cooling period that would, most probably, lead to a new Little Ice Age.
The Daily News had nothing to do with it. These were academics.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:40 AM
11:21 - Actually how about the NY Times for one (easily searchable) example:
Scientists Ask Why World Climate Is Changing; Major Cooling May Be Ahead; Scientists Ponder Why World's Climate Is Changing; a Major Cooling Widely Considered to Be Inevitable
By WALTER SULLIVAN
May 21, 1975, Wednesday
Section: The Week In Review, Page 92, 2838 words
...Your apology for being an arrogant know it all is accepted.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:42 AM
"in 80 years, America will be a ghostown."
This is my favorite quote.
You know...because global warming will only affect the U.S.
The water won't rise in any other country but America.
Such ignorant morons on this site.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:53 AM
11.42 - please link to the Nature or Science article. I'm sure the NYT is important to you but its as prestigious as Hello magazine in the world of science.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:54 AM
Your logic is so off. Because some scientists said a new ice age may or may not be coming 30 years ago has nothing to do with the issue at hand.
Hurricanes have hit NY repeatedly in history, they are a recurring force, and they WILL hit NY again. There is no debate, speculation, or second guessing. Of course it will happen, its just a matter of when and how well prepared we will be.
Your argument is like saying the weather man said it would rain this weekend and it didnt, so I will never worry about it raining on a weekend again...
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:57 AM
let me guess - the scientists said the world's "currently known oil reserves". Of course, you conveniently left that bit out.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:57 AM
I guess that 4th floor walk up is not a bad idea...http://www.smoinge.com/media/1801/Global_Warming_Causes_Rising_Sea-Levels_In_New_York/
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:58 AM
From the first paragraph of Wikipedia re. global cooling
"This hypothesis never had significant scientific support, but gained temporary popular attention due to press reports following a better understanding"
Guess by "popular" they mean the Hello readers.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:00 PM
Yep, like I said 11.42, something you read in the newspaper. Care to tell us what your coffee guy suggests about curing cancer or trash collector's opinion on solar flares?
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:02 PM
manbearpig is coming, Im super serial!
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:07 PM
What a crock of shit... The experts on the weather channel says its bullshit, so I don't know who to beleive, lets just wait to see if it really happens, besides non of us on this site will be alive anyway when and if it finally does. Besides who can beleive a Columbia Univ liberal professor anyway or maybe you want to believe that scientist Al Gore the man that created the internet.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:10 PM
11:28 has a good point - severe damage is not contingent on a direct hit by a hurricane. The 1938 hurricane caused major flooding in NYC, but the center of the storm passed over eastern LI. NYC was on the "weaker" left side of a Cat 3 storm, and suffered severe flooding.
More recently, there were a series of "northeasters" in the 1990s that caused major flooding on LI and in NYC - they all hit at high tide, and caused major storm surges. (A friend who parked his car at an underground garage on Water Street (Manhattan) unhappily found out why its called Water Street.)
Point being, flooding is an ongoing threat in NYC, and does not require a direct hit by a hurricane, or even a hurricane at all.
With regard to the map - note that just about every place colored red was once water and is now land.
Posted by: WBer at March 10, 2008 12:12 PM
According to historical accounts a large storm, probably a hurricane, hit New York City in 1821. The next closest thing was in 1938 when a hurricane came within sixty miles of the city. It did little damage in the City but a lot of damage on Long Island and the Connecticut shore.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:15 PM
What are you guys talking about "if it happens"
It already is happening, average global temperstures are up and apparently rising, flora and fauna used to warmer temperatures are moving north in the northern hemisphere, the antarctic ice shelf is disintergrating, glaciers in patagonia and europe have retreated to previously unknown sizes, polar bears are starving becuase of the lack of summer sea ice in the arctic..... etc etc.
There is no serious debate about whether it is happening.
Why is wilfull ignorance so acceptable in this country? Is it becuase some people are linking it to Gore and hence its become political?
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:16 PM
Man I need another politcal party. I'm all republican when it comes to taxes but I hate to be associated with the anti-liberal tards on this board.
come back Forbes.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:18 PM
Yes Wikipedia is an excellent reference source as well.....
The point is - that "scientists" have "predicted" things before and those predictions have changed. I am not saying that global warming is a fraud - I am saying that just b/c scientists predict it (and its CAUSES) doesn't mean that one shouldn't be skeptical about the accuracy of those predictions (and the REMEDIES).
As for the hurricane predictions - yes NYC will DEFINITELY be hit by a hurricane in the future - but again the issue is how likely is it and how much should be spend to protect against it.
The world will definitely be hit with a deadly pandemic of some disease as well, should we dedicate more resources to preparing for disease or flood?
NYC will definitely be hit by a drought sometime in the future - should we build de-salination plants to prepare?
The overall point is - bad things will happen, we only have limited power to influence these things and limited resources to do it with - shouldn't we prioritize our 'preparations' based upon likelihood?
While a direct hit hurricane is a possibility, it doesn't seem like the most pressing problem we face right now. JMHO
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:22 PM
12:16 - yes Greenhouse gasses are accumulating and Northern Hemisphere temperatures have been rising in the last 2 decades, no question about it - however there is SIGNIFICANT debate on:
1.the eventual environmental result of all this
2. The actual cause of the temperature changes
3. Whether man can (or should) do anything about these facts (even if we are the cause)
As for your comments regarding politics - be fair - politics significantly influence BOTH sides of this debate and present a major problem in making any reasoned decisions (on either side)
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:29 PM
Hahaha... the fact that people are turning to Wikipedia and South Park to boost their argument on whether Global Warming is or isn't happening shows how incredibly dumb the populace has grown over the years.
I mean, far be it from anyone to actually quote scientists or renowned experts in the matter-- let's quote South Park (a crude cartoon that often uses even cruder straw arguments and metaphors to make its point) and Wikipedia, an encyclopedia poorly paraphrased information pilfered from dubious sources!
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:38 PM
Did you actually see the Manbearpig episode 12:38? Nothing Straw about that argument...
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:44 PM
Thanks to you greenies 12:38 - We now have record high food prices, comodities are through the roof, all so we can produce ethanol that requires more petro to produce than we actually get out of it.
Right or wrong, Global warming isnt the most immedaite threat to mankind by a long shot. Alarmists and "Scientists" all have something to gain by promoting this agenda.
I saw a piece in the AP the other day about scientists creating carbon dioxide eating microbes the expel octane based fuel as a waste product.
Thats alot better than the pure vitrol and nonsense the greenies excret on the rest of the world.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 12:49 PM
Yes, now you can't call it "global warming." Now it's called "climate change."
This is called "lowering the bar."
It's also called "socialist B.S. to bilk you of your money."
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:00 PM
what is the most immediate threat to humankind then?
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:02 PM
"what is the most immediate threat to humankind then?"
Manbearpig, Duh!
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:06 PM
The world has gotten colder and warmer before. Is it logical to assume that global climate is perfectly stable from century to century? Aren't occassional floods and storms to be expected in the natural course of things? Nature is unpredictable. Anyone who states that there is some sort of fixed "norm" is not thinking with both sides on their brain. Working towards a cleaner environment is a good thing, a great thing, but lets not fool people into thinking that is has anything to do with climactic trends. that is just not scientifically proven.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:10 PM
"what is the most immediate threat to humankind then?"
Ourselves - Petty wars sparked by dictators and religious zealots bent on meeting their maker.
Technology is getting cheaper and easier and advancing warfare.
If cold fusion is ever perfected, it will be our end. Any fanatic with half a brain will be able to take out the planet with bombs built in their garage.
Well maybe a little exaggerated, but you get the idea...
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:13 PM
>"what is the most immediate threat to humankind then?"
People who know what's best for us.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:14 PM
ourselves ?- we've been here for about 100,000 years and we're now more than ever.
(or since after the Egyptians but before the Romans if you're a creationst)
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:28 PM
1:14 = Best comment on this thread. Maybe even the quote of the week.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:28 PM
1.28 - it wasn't that good. Its worn and trite.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:32 PM
Prior to 1945 many prominent scientists from prestigious universities in America and Europe thought that one of the biggest threats facing mankind was interbreeding with "inferior" races.
The name of this branch of science was "eugenics". It actually originated here, in the USA. There was no end of "scientific proof" to bolster their arguments.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:36 PM
Right, modern science requires peer-reviewed proof. Whats your point?
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:47 PM
"Look to the future global economic collapse. We'll be -lucky- to be merely drowning. You folks are so naive."
If the economic collapse/environmental disaster takes you down with it, it can't be so bad.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:49 PM
"ourselves ?- we've been here for about 100,000 years and we're now more than ever."
Thats true, but sticks and rocks really didnt have the most effective means of mass destruction.
Only a matter of time before some chain of events leads to our ultimate mass extinction. Its human nature to destroy each other. We just havent had the means to do so for the majority of our existence.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:49 PM
The problem is that the layperson can't distinguish science from pseudoscience (see Mr. 1.36 for example). Thus its very easy for those with an agenda (e.g. oil corporations) to throw isolated facts into the debate to confuse scientific illiterates.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:49 PM
You mean the sort of peer-review that allowed one lunatic doctor to go around the country from 1930 to 1960 lobotimizing children who had emotinal or psychiatric probelms? Scientist are bad at this.
Individuals need to more skeptical of the "experts" and of the celebrities who champion them.
Charles Lindbergh, the hero aviator, was a big booster of Eugenics.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:52 PM
Where is the peer-reviewed article supporting that then?
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:54 PM
So wait a minute - the theme I'm getting is the world-renowned meterological scientist at an ivy-league university having spent his acadmeic life poring over data and climatology and travelling around the world to measure the weather knows less than joe brooklyn who once got rained on.
People are fine with science until it intrudes on something they have a vested interest in, then it all goes out the window.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 1:59 PM
Were not talking about one scientist tho' are we? Jeeze, even the Pentagon has changed its operations and future plans because it sees what is already happening.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:01 PM
Science isnt B.S. and Global 'climate change' isnt B.S. - but that doesn't mean that Science and the science of climate change is currently so accurate as to be able to determine the exact causes of climate change or the correct course of action in the face of it.
Additionally you are truly naive if you think that a science that potentially causes all of mankind to alter its behavior is not influenced by politics (on both sides)
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:02 PM
Haven't you heard - NYC real estate is different. Global warming will not be affecting the big apple.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:04 PM
You have 1000s of scientists "pouring over data and climatology and traveling around the world to measure weather" but ANY Joe Brooklyn can plainly see that the level of science and meteorology can not yet accurately predict weather for more than 1 or 2 days and is horrible at predicting the likelihood and path of tropical storms by more than a few hours.
Again this isnt a "flat earth" belief, it is a reasoned evaluation on the state of today's "science", how much we want to spend in $ and lives to alter our society based on this science and what influence politics has on the agenda demanding such change.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:08 PM
Although this global warming debate is truly scintillating, Isnt the article simply about observed weather patterns and how a potential hurricane could affect low-lying areas of NYC.
Dont see how this is relevant to global warming as Hurricanes exists with or without golbal warming.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:11 PM
I believe that in 80 years people will look back and rightly equate the idea of global-warming-induced flooding with the Y2K scare, the Communist threat, and the fear of sailing off the ends of the earth.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:15 PM
And a (pre-"warming") hurricane hasn't hit NYC in over 190 years......
Although earthquakes were felt here as recently as 1985
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:17 PM
Hey all you dyed in the wool Democrats.
Your man in Albany is doing great.
Now he is involved with a prostitution ring.
So far his term has really sucked.
We need to elect another Republican asap.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:27 PM
10:11, better to move to Park Slope and put your home on stilts, than to buy in Brooklyn Heights - that neighborhood is SO over.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:30 PM
this must be what happens when a writer gives up on predicting the implosion of nyc's real estate market. next up - forecasting a locust infestation.
Posted by: BrooklynLove at March 10, 2008 2:36 PM
When the real estate bubble burst it blew away the protective ozone layer... How will i enjoy my 2300 square feet of outdoor space now?
Looks like Green Wood Cemetery is the best place to buy property in the loooong run.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 2:49 PM
dont wory folks! in 80 years my son would have invented a way to pump this water out.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 4:13 PM
There was a small earthquake centered in queens in 2001. I felt it in downtown brooklyn.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 5:10 PM
I like the picture in that even though half of lower manhattan has flooded out, tourists are still enjoying a pleasure ride on the circle line
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 5:11 PM
Thank God I live in Park Slope North near the Park where I'll be safe from water!!!!!
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 5:48 PM
Crown Heights is on the ridge of a terminal moraine, higher than most of brownstone Brooklyn. So I'm OK.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 5:50 PM
"Crown Heights is on the ridge of a terminal moraine, higher than most of brownstone Brooklyn. So I'm OK"
Yes, but you will probably succumb to a Terminal Gun Shot Wound before you have any water to worry about.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 6:42 PM
"Yes, but you will probably succumb to a Terminal Gun Shot Wound before you have any water to worry about."
I've been here since 2001, and haven't come close to being mugged, shot or victimized by any crime. Everybody treats me cool and I don't have any problems. But I can understand how someone like you would be very afraid. Just stay away from Crown Heights and you will be OK.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 6:49 PM
sucks for all those people moving into luxury condos along the williamsburg waterfront. their just gonna get swept away someday.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 6:52 PM
i love the smell coming from the sewers in greenpoint. i don't know why though.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 6:56 PM
yea crown heights blows. never had any problems while living there even though i heard gunshots couple times a week right by my apartment. just a shitty neighborhood.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 6:58 PM
"But I can understand how someone like you would be very afraid. Just stay away from Crown Heights and you will be OK."
Deal.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 7:01 PM
We were quite glad to be rid of the likes of you, 6:58 and very sorry the gun shots missed a direct hit on your kidneys and/or left temple. Please return to Crown Heights so we can get another crack at nailing you.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 7:02 PM
7:02- how about you put down your gun you pussy and learn how to fight like a real man. ahhhhhhh cause you wouldn't have a chance because you would be on the ground with your legs broken and kneecaps busted in a minute. scumfuck pussy.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 7:14 PM
Actually, we supposedly should have been in a cooling cycle these last years based on geo-historical data showing cycles/trends...much like the Mini Ice Age that chased the Viking settlers from Greenland and possibly Nova Scotia, etc…possibly, as some say, keeping some in North America and intermingling with the indigenous population --certain groups among the Iroquois were noted for light eyes, a different look and were very tall, diverging form other people of Turtle Island where most of you reading this now live, what is called “North America”. But this is another discussion.
The Mini Ice Age continued into the 1600's and a touch into the 1700’s. Much of the freeze is chronicled in writing, prints and paintings...winter scenes of ice skaters in Holland, etc...places where you're lucky if there’re that many days with frost most winters now.
The Black Plague was at its height during times when Europe was in a deep winter freeze each year and started to find itself deforested and scrambling for wood. Not that being well fed will save you from the bubonic plague, but I’m sure being malnourished through a bad winter does not help.
Many ascribe the European push into North America by the 1500's to the need for wood, tar, pitch, etc. for shipbuilding and for other resources that had been depleted in Europe during the Mini Ice Age.
By the way, deforestation is not new. It happened in North Africa, Europe and in more recent times in New England. By the late 1600’s, Boston folk were complaining that for a long distance around the town, the land was completely deforested and they were having to bring in wood from very far a field.
I have studied timber architecture in the British Isles and Northern Europe. Construction changed during the Mini Ice Age. People moved away from using wood to using earth, stone, etc. Wood elements became smaller dimensionally. At one time, materials such as earth brick, rammed earth and cob (mud and straw) became the materials of choice because they were readily available but wood was not.
So...where does that leave us?
Well, we have caused a lot of atmospheric pollution and a huge shift in CO2 and other greenhouse gases (methane for example) has taken place. This goes back to the age of coal which started a couple of hundred years with the use of coal for firing forges and kilns in the 1700’s and eventually exploded in the 1800’s with the advent of domestic coal heating, steam engines, railways, heavy industry and then electricity generation. Down the line, petroleum came into use, and with it, a massive increase in population, at this point arguably unsustainable but for the energy input of fossil fuels and the current modes of doing things.
CO2 levels are geo-historically very high, up into the levels seen in far prehistory when the planet was a wet and warm place...not conducive to today's agriculture or human beings in general.
There IS climate change and clear ocean rise. Having family that lived through the storm of 1938 where the roof was ripped off and thousands died (with no warning downtown Providence, RI had a sudden storm surge during the early evening rush which flooded it the second floor of businesses and stores…the death toll was high) and having personally been in two hurricanes that hit Connecticut, having friends who have escaped New Orleans and the Gulf Coast probably never to return and each year worrying with friends and family in Florida through “the season”...well…all this to say: the strength of hurricanes is awful and nothing to joke about. These storms may not get more frequent but there will be years when storms are much stronger and destructive and the ocean surges will get worse and worse.
We have had incredible droughts in the Northeast...don't know if anyone has noticed living in NYC...
And we have had terrible, record-breaking weather of all kinds (snow, rain, wind, temperature) over the last years.
So, climate change is happening just as it did when the Northern Hemisphere cooled down in the 1300's and plunged it into hard, painful winters or starvation and death, fighting for resources...and ultimately, large changes in social fabric and political systems.
We’re warming up overall. Don’t let the cooling dips that were due, climatologists believe, to Mt. St. Helen and Pinatubo which sent up massive veils of dust and cooled the earth for a couple of years at each go. Australia has been in a drought for 10 years. Glaciers in all the world’s major mountain chains are shrinking causing changes, with more to come, in all the varied regions downstream that rely on rivers fed by these glaciers.
We’re getting more tornadoes, brush fires, massive storms, wind events, etc. in the Northeast. We keep having what are essentially thunderstorms in wintertime. Rumbling thunder, lighting, heavy, driving rains in winter and springtime. These are a significant shift from the last three decades.
I guess we’d all do good to invest in Wind Power.
My brother-in-law is an environmental engineer and mainly works on siting new wind towers and he is raking it in right now. Wind Power is booming in the NE even though you wouldn’t really know it. One problem with renewables: since the Reaganites undid all of Carter’s progressive work in the 70’s, the US was thrown into the background while Denmark and Germany took over in solar and wind…and now there is a shortage in production capacity so there are waiting lists and time delays for installers. Too bad.
Look, it’s inevitable that NYC will one day lose a lot of its land surface…and who knows if society will truly be in shambles by then. And, probably one day, possibly when there are very few humans on the planet compared with today (maybe none at all?), during another major Ice Age, huge glaciers will rake down the Hudson Valley and drop more material on Long Island.
See you then!
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 8:16 PM
You should add that the surge in world population growth is linked to fossil fuel use, that the planet's human population was stable for many thousands of years and trundled along slowly, that it was not until the advent of coal burning, a mild period of climate conducive to agriculture and then petroleum agriculture and food supply that world population shot up...it is truly a contemporary phenomenon!
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 8:33 PM
so we sort of stopped a second ice age..... now how do we save the penguins?
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 9:03 PM
and the brownstones cant forget about the brownstones.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 9:05 PM
wow this site is full of drama queens. you guys can change the way you are living im still driving my suv. by the way i see the shift from the "global warming" moniker to "climate change" whats up with that because where im living we are having the coldest winter in 7 years.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 9:42 PM
"Climate Change" is such a joke. Of course the climate changes - Thats the definition of climate.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 9:50 PM
brownstones absorb the heat from the sun and super-heat the neighborhoods of brooklyn. when the true heat wave hits we're going to have to tear them all down and replace them with tan bricks similar to the hasidic bldngs, they're the progressive designs of our modern age.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:11 PM
Global warming is a myth. Don't believe the hype. Instead of listening to the doom and gloomers read a few articles that challenge the global warming myth. You might be quite surprised at what you will learn. Then you will say to yourself, how could I have been so niave.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:36 PM
Not only is global warming a myth it is a purposeful attack on the lifestyle of middle class americans. we are to blame for the world's problems, even the climate!
this is something out of the ancient Maya
belief system. Indoctrinate the children all you want about global warming, pretty soon they will know that santa claus was a crock and that climate change fears are a crock.
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 10:55 PM
Earth-shattering meteor, where are you!!?!?!?
Posted by: guest at March 10, 2008 11:35 PM
some of the postings here are right to say that NYC isn't being hit by any big storm.
all that flooding we are all experiencing in places like Gowanus is comming form all that dm building that is going on, more concrete everwhere.
we don't need no big storm to flood each other out of our homes, the developers will do it for us. so lets just keep on building mr ratner.
Posted by: guest at March 11, 2008 10:41 PM

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