Wednesday Links

Interesting to follow the little graph in the NYT article. NYC Housing prices seem to match up almost exactly with the overall US housing trends for the last 15+ years.

Compare this to other cities like Tampa, San Fran, and Las Vegas where prices rocket up in 2000-2005 and are now rocketing down in the past year or 2.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 8:26 AM

Get rid of fat Marty!! Throw the bum out!

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 8:51 AM

The hall of scumbags includes D’Amato, Ratner and Bloomberg. Money can't buy you everything, jerks.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 9:02 AM

Convininent?

Bravo for Peppe's...outstanding pizza.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 9:30 AM

"Atlantic Yards quietly scaled back?"

Oh no. I think this shit have some legs. The credit crunch is sticking a flagpole up Ratner ass. Newark NJ here we come. LMMFAO!!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 10:32 AM

Hmm - I see these idiots like The What predicting worst case scenarios. In fact they are predicting (and have been) worse scenarios than the early 80's.

It hasnt happened probably won't but there is a slight chance of a dip in sales prices.

these naysayers are caught up in predicting a crash, and it blinds them. What they are missing is that uncertainty means opportunity. I would rather buy in a down market or an uncertain market. To me it means potential softness in price and potentially high upside when all the sidelines sitters jump back in.

Do the naysayers mean that it is better to buy in an up market where there are rising prices, bidding wars, competition for loans?

I say there is more opportunity in the RE market now than there has been in the past 5 years or will be in the next 5 years.

SNEAKY PETE

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 11:44 AM

Hey Sneaky Pete, Keep whistling in the cemetery.

"it hasnt happened probably won't but there is a slight chance of a dip in sales prices."

Huh??!!! Where have you been? Here read this.

Home Prices Drop, Foreclosures Rise as Slump Deepens

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aw0c0lIxgP8k&refer=news

"these naysayers are caught up in predicting a crash, and it blinds them. What they are missing is that uncertainty means opportunity. I would rather buy in a down market or an uncertain market. To me it means potential softness in price and potentially high upside when all the sidelines sitters jump back in."

You would be a knife-catcher. We will have a asset crash. The assholes are playing hide the salami.

"Do the naysayers mean that it is better to buy in an up market where there are rising prices, bidding wars, competition for loans?"

It's better to buy when no one wants to fuck with Real Estate. I cant see why people make arguments for buying Real Estate now. The valuations don't make sense. The cash flow is negative and rates are going up. The What is a idiot all right but, I get to keep my money in my pocket and not being some debt-bitch.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

BTW Don't let this shit crash because, I will remind you every FUCKING day

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 11:57 AM

"BTW Don't let this shit crash because, I will remind you every FUCKING day"

Haven't you previously said the "crash" was a certainty? Don't be waffling.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 12:29 PM

notice that "the What" tried to post anonymously at 11:57

He called himself and idiot then signed his post as "the what"

You realy are an idiot

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 12:37 PM

"notice that "the What" tried to post anonymously at 11:57

He called himself and idiot then signed his post as "the what"

You realy are an idiot"

????????????????????????????????????????.?

Fail

The What (yes The What)

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 12:55 PM

question for "The What"

If you are saying not to buy because prices are going down, When is the time to buy?

Do you plan to know when the market will be on its way back up?

Will you be able to jump in before all the sideline sitters all jump back in at the same time?

Do you have any value to add besides predicting that the Sky will fall and everyone will be wiped out?

What happens if the market doesnt tank? Did you miss an opportunity?

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 12:59 PM

Well 12:59. You will know when it's time to buy. The wealthiest people buy things when the have little value and they sell them when there are high.

"Do you plan to know when the market will be on its way back up?"

IMHO, I don't think we will ever see this Mutant Real Estate Bubble again. I think we are headed to depression of asset prices. We are in the last stages of the BIG BLOW OFF.

"Do you have any value to add besides predicting that the Sky will fall and everyone will be wiped out?"

That's when the dollars you save will regain their value, just chill.

"What happens if the market doesnt tank? Did you miss an opportunity?"

The only "opportunity" you missed is being a debt slave. Take the extra money and save it. Short term T-Bill and for GOD'S sake don't cash out your retirement. It's the only thing thats protected in a Bankruptcy.

I hope this helps.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 1:34 PM

SNEAKY PETE @ 11:44. RE doesn't move as fast as the stock market. RE crashes are slow and take years to run their courses. The average cycle is twenty years (i.e. early 90's to upcoming early 2010's)

You can call this a down market because that's where the trend is but you aint seen nothing yet. ARM's are still ticking, foreclosures and tax liens are still climbing, inventory is still mounting, layoffs haven't quite trickled down yet, large banks haven't been seized yet - many shoes to drop. Don't fall for the dead cat bounce, sucker's rally.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 1:42 PM

12:59 -

You're taking advice from "The What?" Just bear in mind, he/she may not be considered by some to be a credible source. That's all I'm saying.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 1:49 PM

C'ING MY WAY IN THIS A & B CONVERSATION...

"If you are saying not to buy because prices are going down, When is the time to buy?"

IT'S NOT A TIME SCHEDULE IT'S A PROCESS. THE MARKET TAKES HOW LONG IT WANTS TO TAKE. EITHER YOU'LL BE PATIENT OR YOU'LL OVERPAY.

"Do you plan to know when the market will be on its way back up?"

YUP. ONE COMPLETE YEAR OF YEAR-OVER-YEAR SALES AND PRICE INCREASES. THAT'S WHEN I'M BACK IN.

"Will you be able to jump in before all the sideline sitters all jump back in at the same time?"

IT'S NOT THE STOCK MARKET. REAL ESTATE MARKETS MOVE VERY SLOW AND THEIR BOTTOMS LAST VERY LONG (I.E. MID 90'S). LOOK AT THIS EARLY CRASH STAGE - EVERYONE'S SLOWLY HEADING FOR THE EXITS (I.E. CASTIMADIS? AND DONALD TRUMP). IT'S NO DIFFERENT AT THE BOTTOM. PEOPLE WILL SLOWLY JUMP BACK IN AS THEY DID IN THE LATER 90'S.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 1:59 PM

"You're taking advice from "The What?" Just bear in mind, he/she may not be considered by some to be a credible source. That's all I'm saying."

JUST BEAR IN MIND, 12:59. NOURIEL ROUBINI OF NYU WAS LONG CONSIDERED A NON-CREDIBLE SOURCE UNTIL RECENTLY. SAME FOR ROBERT SHILLER WITH REGARD TO DOT BOMB (OR THE CURRENT HOUSING FIASCO FOR THAT MATTER). REVISIT THE CONCEPT OF THE CANARY IN THE COAL MINE.

ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT MOST HOMEOWNERS (AN OVERWHELMINGLY MAJORITY ON THIS BLOG) LIKE 1:49 ARE STILL IN DENIAL AND HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO SUBSTANCE IN THEIR ARGUMENTS FOR A SOFT LANDING. THEIR POSTS ARE SHORT AND EMOTIONAL.

ALL I'M SAYING...

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 2:09 PM

Those areas once upon a time were considered park slope.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 2:33 PM

So The What and the other anon naysayers are recommending "The Lemming" approach to real estate - buy when everyone else is buying.

I believe and have made my RE money by pioneering and buying when others are not therefore avoiding price competition and the herd mentality.

But feel free to jump in when every one else is - great plan.

Sneaky Pete

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 3:30 PM

"roubini is always a bear..."

AND PREDOMINANTLY SPOT ON.

"...people just listen to him when sentiment is negative."

THAT'S THE PROBLEM. BY THEN, IT'S TOO LATE. CARBON MONOXIDE WILL SWALLOW YOU AND THE CANARY.

"kind of how the anon sheep on this blog harp on the flavor du jour and let the commentators do their "thinking" for them."

KIND OF LIKE THE NY R.E.B., CNBC, THE N.Y.T. AND THE N.A.R. DOES YOUR THINKING FOR YOU. YEAH, WE KNOW EXACTLY WHO YOU ARE - WHAT YOU LOOK LIKE, YOUR ADDRESS, YOUR SS#, ETC. - ALL BECAUSE YOU SIGN "BrooklynLove". LINK US A PHOTO.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 4:43 PM

I will laugh at you when the NYC market doesnt tank and you are again priced out of the market for the next decade.

But as I am laughing, I will happily cash your rent check

Keep on hoping for the worst - maybe some day it will happen - but how will you take advantage of it?????

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 4:47 PM

"So The What and the other anon naysayers are recommending "The Lemming" approach to real estate - buy when everyone else is buying."

You ARE sneaky, Pete. We said nothing of the sort. Please quote an excerpt that supports your point.

Less people are buying, I'll give you that. But we are far from the scarce buying activity of past bottoms. We are not far enough from the buying frenzy of 2006. A small number of very wealthy individuals or an even larger number of misinformed sheep are still buying at insignificant "discounts". Your theory is too simplified and your call for bargains premature. You buy when comps stop dropping or if you get a deal where the price is where you predict it to be when the market bottoms (-25 to -50 percent from top).

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 4:57 PM

"LIKE 1:49 ARE STILL IN DENIAL AND HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO SUBSTANCE IN THEIR ARGUMENTS"

Hey, I'm 1:49 and I have two questions:

1. What exactly am I "denying?"

2. What argument did I attempt to make?

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 5:01 PM

And if it doesn't tank, 4:47?

Thanks for your support. By the time the smoke clears and I count my cash from savings and gold, I'll take advantage by putting more money down on a cheaper house. I will smother higher interest rates. Cash will be King. The dollar WILL rebound.

What would you do if you lost a significant amount of your equity. Are you hedged elsewhere?

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 5:13 PM

I, 5:01, am assuming you are denying a hard landing. I also assume you are the type that makes weak arguments about a soft landing for property values in Brooklyn. Forgive me if I'm wrong. F*** you if I'm right (just kidding - had to see what it was like to speak like The What).

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 5:29 PM

"I, 5:01, am assuming you are denying a hard landing. I also assume you are the type that makes weak arguments about a soft landing for property values in Brooklyn."

1. I'm not denying a "hard landing." I bought my home in 2000 and it's nearly tripled in vaue since then. Furthermore, I've been in Brooklyn my entire life, I like the neighborhood AND my home, and I'm planing on staying for the forseeable future. There may be a hard crash for some, but not for me, pal. You can bet on it.

2. I don't "[make] weak arguments about a soft landing for property values in Brooklyn" because frankly, I don't expect any of this stuff to affect me too severly. I'm a well-paid, well-established professional in my field and I've done my homework. But I am having a hell of a good time reading all of the vitriolic angst from the posters here.

3. You know what they say about people who "assume." Only in this instance, you should remove the "me" part and retain the "u."

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 5:56 PM

"I'm wrong. F*** you if I'm right (just kidding - had to see what it was like to speak like The What)"

Nope, you have to be on the hard Meds. Like me ; ^ P.........

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 7:13 PM

it appears they've drained the swimming pool.

Posted by: guest at February 27, 2008 10:09 PM