Home Prices Continue to Slide, and NY’s No Exception

Where is The What, this is right up his alley! I guess maybe he's still tired from delivering toys and Christmas cheer to all of the needy asshats and fucktards this week.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 9:45 AM

Its "Where is the What at".

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 10:31 AM

Rehab is correct in that the wild-card in NYC (manhattan) is foreign money.

Wall Street bonuses plays a role as well;
both psychologically and practically but in a sense that yearly infusion has been priced in - the only real upward pressure is foreign money and that could potentially save the NYC market but if history is any guide - foreign investors are a sign of the top of the market - think Japanese late 80's

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 10:32 AM

Happy Holidays Fucktards!

10:06 We are in the middle of a GLOBE CREDIT MELTDOWN stupid! It wont make a difference if you cant get credit. Banks are NOT loaning money o asshole to buy overpriced shit, GOT IT. I bet there is i maybe 2 big banks that are INSOLVENT now! The housing market will get assraped in 2008. The gain made in the last 7 years will be vaporized in the meltdown and housing prices will go back to pre 2000 levels. RIP Mutant Real Estate Bubble 2000-2007.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end..

Here watch this! This will show the mind fucking of your world! Deep shit

Century of the Self

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8655440618894671576

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 10:38 AM

Here's my take:
I am in the market for a mid-level brownstone in either the slope or cobble hill. I currently rent with an open-ended lease--so there's no urgency on my part. I have bid (below asking, but not unrealistically low) on several places now and lost to essentially the same *type* of buyer every time.
It seems like it's always a couple with a kid or two who bought their smallish two-bedroom
upper-east/upper-west side apt. for $600,000 six or seven years ago and are now selling it (perhaps to a european buyer) for $1.5+ million and need to make a deal pronto.

$1.95 mil for a cute house on 10th between 5th & 6th?
Can I move in right away?

It seems to me that whoever is selling to these euros or whoever is buying up all the apartments in manhattan is taking that cash and bringing it to brooklyn.

Rehab makes a good point. I wonder how long after the manhattan market eases will the brownstone market correct?

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:15 AM

"The What is out of his mind. Nobody with a decent job and a good credit history is having the slightest difficulty getting a mortgage today, nor will they tomorrow. Dude needs medication--if not inpatient treatment."

Watch the fucking video stupid. Yes people are having a problem with getting mortgages! Plus new guildelines go in effect on 1/2/08. Banks are not loaning money to assfucks to but overpriced shit. You are a peon who has no clue on the housing market, it's over!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end....

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:47 AM

@11:11am - you are optimistic and speak like a broker at an open house. Go speak to some real mortgage applicants. I took this little story from brokers outpost, a forum whose tone is entirely negative but being mortgage brokers they know the deal now.

"Wow. The housing market in this country has changed. I just got off the phone with Wells Fargo. We needed a pre-approval letter. I am hoping we can buy a decent sized house that is not a 2 hour commute.

Background: Married. Same house for 20 years with Wells Fargo. Never missed a payment. FICO bumping 800. 20 years on the job for me. Low six figure income with decent amount in various places. Planned on 20% down. Also a vet. Sounds like an easy approval?

The Details: 7.1 on a Jumbo. At borderline for income v. house. Asked for the highest figure just in case. They will only do it with 30% down! Who is going to be buying a house with 30% down? Nobody is going to qualify for houses in this area. (DC)."

This is a US sea-change not a local market issue. Banks are looking for tight appraisals and looking for 20% plus down. One reason co-ops always sold for less than condos was partly because they enforced well-heeled buyers. Now these restrictions go beyond co-op rules AND are market-wide. Real rates have not dropped on jumbos, appraisals are pushing up the down-payment needed to close. Nobody gets away with stated anything - full doc all the way. No getting the deposit off your dad and seasoning it for a month, either.

A typical buyer even in richy-rich new york usually has to sell, so they have to worry about this tricky process twice, not once. Once for their buyer, once for their purchase.

Of course there are still people paying full cash or selling an apartment in a tony building in new york to buy in brooklyn. But that slice of the market is not by itself holding things up.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:50 AM

Rehab: Wall Street is filled with little dicks. THat is why they have so much to prove. As for your comments on The What, you are right on.

The What ..... which 2 big banks are insolvent you nutty little asshat fucktard you?

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:51 AM

Hey, The What, people with good credit and decent salaries (ie, the people buying overpriced condos in Manhattan and Brooklyn) can still get a mortgage, the best evidence being that I just got a mortgage (10/10/80) for an condo in Downtown Brooklyn.

And, yes, I could care less what happens to the housing market now--I can afford my mortgage and I have no plans on moving in the few years, at least.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:56 AM

To The What.

My wife and I are about to close on a 1.4 mil house in the Slope.

We have decent jobs and good credit.

We have mortage peolpe falling over themselves to give us their business.

Unless you have real life examples, not the cyberworld, Shut the assfuck up!

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:57 AM

These cycles have been going on for hundreds of years. Are you surprised that banks are being a little cautious now? Do you think it will change in time? Of course.
Note to person thinking about CT. Taxes on houses there are probably in the 10k-20k range. Not so in NYC. Also most larger b'stones have a rental which provides an income stream. This makes the economics of these buildings different. I know there are other factors - income taxes, schools, etc but you cannot compare NYC to CT as apples to apples, there are too many differences.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:59 AM

11:50: If all you are saying is that people will now have to be able to afford the house they buy based on available cash and pre-approved mortgage applications, then how is what Rehab said so optimistic?

For all you doom and gloom people, really, take your medication.

The overinflated market is over but people with the cash and the good credit will get the mortgages they need when they need them. Sleezy lenders and ignorant or sleezy lenders will have to step out of the market.

Get a life people.

What, you are an asshat and a fucktard

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 12:00 PM

Is it me or does it seem odd to anyone else that in the richest city in the richest country in the world, the vast majority of the citizens cannot afford housing and we have to be waiting on rich foriegners to swoop down and save the real estate market. This would appear to be something you would see in a third world country but not in the USA.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 12:03 PM

"11:50: If all you are saying is that people will now have to be able to afford the house they buy based on available cash and pre-approved mortgage applications, then how is what Rehab said so optimistic?"

Because his tune is that the market will not fall, because everything is ok. What is not sinking in is that the rapid price appreciation of 2002+ is due to the people who could not afford the house they bought but were given cash to buy it anyway. And this generous and unrealistic high LTV financing has been removed, up and down the line, not just at the low end.
Simply put, the pool of fully qualified buyers shopping at each price level has shrunk dramatically. Therefore prices, which lag due to seller stubbornness, are on the way down now as well.

People who bought in 2007 are already losing chunks of their equity. But you know - if nyc is so well off and 20% downpayments don't frighten anyone, that isn't a problem, right? That kind of financial hit is a flea bite.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 12:34 PM

Polemecist & Brooklynnative:

I suspect the valuation discrepancy you've noticed has a lot to do with relative property taxes. Property taxes on 1&2 family homes in the outer boroughs are just much, much lower than on properties in Westchester and CT. The property tax burden of Westchester/CT gets capitalized into the home price. A $25K annual property tax bill -- not at all unusual in Westchester for <$1mio houses -- will shave a multiple of that off the sale price.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 12:44 PM

"Stamford is 40 mins from Grand Central"

Its also 12k to 18k real estate taxes, every year, for the rest of your life!

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 12:51 PM

I work in the garment textile industry, so I deal a lot with Chinese suppliers/factories. The bilateral trade bet US and China will only grow going forward, don't believe everything you read and hear in the media. Based on purchase-parity economics, Chinese economy is already bigger than US.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 1:11 PM

"What about the public schools - aren't they pretty good in Stamford?

We looked into moving to Stamford last year.

Apart from one school, the Public Schools are HORRIBLE

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 1:15 PM

1:11: The size of the Chinese economy was recently revised downward.

Current estimates say China will be bigger than the US by the middle of this century.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 1:35 PM

Hey What, see this invaluable article. I think it supports your view.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBIOpFwBgNM

Bananas!

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 1:41 PM

Brooklynnative, I very shocked at your comments. Did you have a Kool-Aid Detox?! LMMFAO! Yes I'm a asshat but, I know this thing is over. Wait until the new year the stories are going to blow your minds. This shit will drop faster than a bowling ball tied to a anvil.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end..

And to the assfucks that keep dissin me, find some fell good stories about real estate. You can't there is none. Now fuck off!!!

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 1:51 PM

to 1:41 That shit is hot!!! I heard the P&J song before but, I love this thanks.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 1:58 PM

What's going to become more and more key, is the subway line the various Brooklyn neighborhoods are on. Having an express subway in your 'hood will be important. If people can get to Manhattan just as fast from upstate than they can from Bay Ridge or Ditmas Park or Kensington who only have local trains, they may start to choose more affordable houses upstate once more. Though the commute isn't cheap. The Metro North pass for commuters is something like $300 per person. But there are lots of bargains outside of NYC on amazing historic houses right now. We own a Brooklyn brownstone and plan to eventually move out of the city in a few years, so I've started the process of getting familiar with the areas and the property taxes. Long Island property taxes are insane. People are paying Stamford level property taxes in some Long Island towns that are just these ugly little towns with 60's ranch style houses, split-level or whatever they're called. So forget LI, that's crossed off our list. Though the commute on LIRR costs less than Metro North. NJ drives me crazy, its highways are chaotic, I always get lost and I could never live there. I am most interested in NY's Putnam County now, because the schools are good and it's still on the Metro North but doesn't have the insane property taxes. If you go even further out, into Columbia County, the houses are gorgeous, really unique and cool, and the prices and taxes are low low. Like $600,000 to 700,000 for a big, mid-1800's Victorian house or a 1700's house. But the schools aren't so great in Columbia Cty and you have to take Amtrak not Metro North. BUT, there are decent private schools that are more affordable than NYC private schools. Lots of chic restaurants and antique stores in those Hudson River towns. Anyway, that's what I've found in my bit of research of the suburbs so far.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 1:59 PM

Public schools in NYC are woefully overcrowded and getting worse.

Folks I know are increasingly looking outside NYC for the very reasons 10:56 cited.

NYC will soften. It makes zero economic sense to pay current prices given (1) low school quality/overcrowding (2) rents, which are softening (giving away free months downtown) (3) the ONLY thing propping up the market is foreign money (read: SPECULATORS). What'll happen when they try to rent out their condos? (4) A incoming torrent of condo supply (5) a significantly weaker NYC job market.

How can anybody (aside from the brokers/owners/sellers who post on this site) look at the current data, environment and trends and conclude that NYC real estate is a smart investment? You gotta be an idiot to think that right now.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 2:07 PM

I posted the info at 10:59, and though I think it's a good idea for some who can only spend $800,000 to $1.2 million for a house to be looking upstate, I need to say I completely disagree with 2:07. It's absurd. NYC real estate has never been a bad investment. The return you get varies by neighborhood and by how much time you own the property, and which time you bought and sold, but everybody on the planet thinks NYC real estate is a good investment. Which nobody thinks about upstate or NJ or LI. They could just as easily buy in those place, those foreign investors, but they aren't, are they?

NYC schools are bad, but so are all the public schools in the U.S., even the best ones aren't as good as private schools, anyday. Buying upstate is a good idea if you can't afford the NYC private schools and you have more than one child. If you have only one child then you might as well pay for the NYC private schools, because you'll pay the same amount of money upstate for property taxes. The thing 2:07 forgets, perhaps because they are a person who is not wealthy, is there is immense wealth in NYC. And it's not all wealth that will go away if the economy takes a hit. There are lots of people in NYC with inheritances on top of their earned income. NYC contains a greater number of those people than anywhere else in the United States. As for salaries alone, not counting inherited wealth, the largest populations of those with very high earned income is in NYC and L.A., and those people are very very very keen on Brooklyn. For good reason. Despite the appeal of upstate, we personally do hear all the time that people we know who move there aren't as happy as they were living inside the city. You definitely sacrifice certain things leaving town.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 2:29 PM

2:29, the early 90's called. they want their "returns" back.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 2:50 PM

2:29 - I am 2:07. I can afford a $3M apartment, no mortgage. Nonetheless, I simply don't see it as a wise investment right now. I agree with you that NYC real estate is desirable, but that doesn't mean that pricing trends are favorable. Just because something is desirable does not mean it is immune from the laws of supply and demand, which, frankly, do not bode well in the near term for NYC real estate, plain and simple.

If you are planning on staying in your NYC home for 10 years and don't mind prices going down soon after you buy your place, possibly for a while, knock yourself out.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 2:51 PM

2:57 - 2:51 here. No, truth is I don't need a place that big, but to 2:29's point, I can afford it.

2:29 seems to think that people who have money will be happy to continue to throw it at NY real estate. My point is that I am such a person, yet I give serious thought to the wisdom of a major purchase before making it. I would argue, contrary to what 2:29 asserts, that "people with wealth" don't rush stupidly into major purchases. Many of them are somewhat sophisticated about these decisions.

To your point, yes of course I have done the math on buy v. rent, if that's your question. Based on current market assumptions, it only makes sense to buy if (1) you expect to be in your place at least 5 years and (2) you expect annual appreciation of 7+% over this period. The longer you stay, the less annual appreciation you need.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 3:06 PM

CNBC: Merrill to slash 1,600 jobs, Citi to cut bonus pool by 40%

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 3:15 PM

2:29 here, we bought our house at below-market, we found a special timing and opportunity to do so. Recent comps are already $200,000 more than what we paid, and these are sales that happened after the mortgage crisis. Plus we DO plan to stay in our house another 4 or 5 years even if eventually we settle upstate or CT. I figure if the market is hit hard enough to still affect us years from now if/when we sell, then we and everybody has bigger problems than losing a little money on real estate.

Besides, it depends on what you're buying. If you are selling because you are leaving the city thus you are buying elsewhere at an even greater discount than you sold, then you come out on top anyway. People lose money on real estate sometimes, it happens. My father is very financially conservative and has still lost money on real estate. But it's how you play it over the longer term that counts.

As for the smartass at 2:50, in the early 90's in my 20's I bought a house during a time everyone was panicky about the RE market and too scared to make offers and when I sold in the late 90's I made 3 times my investment back. Those panicky people were predicting the market would fall even more, and.....it didn't. It rebounded right after the worst part of the panic. Sure, maybe it doesn't happen this time. But I'm not going to rent for the next ten years waiting to find out.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 3:18 PM

"2:29 here, we bought our house at below-market, we found a special timing and opportunity to do so. Recent comps are already $200,000 more than what we paid, and these are sales that happened after the mortgage crisis. Plus we DO plan to stay in our house another 4 or 5 years even if eventually we settle upstate or CT. I figure if the market is hit hard enough to still affect us years from now if/when we sell, then we and everybody has bigger problems than losing a little money on real estate."

Yo Asshole, you are OD'ing off the Kool-Aid. Where did you get your comps, Disney Fucking Land. Or was it a asshat Agent tryng to get your listing. Get me your address, I will run comps for you. In 4 or 5 years our economy will be a waste land, a fucking depression! You will be settling on cat and dog food stupid! 2008 is gonig to be the FUCK YOU year! No more Kool-Aid, Just some real asspounding!!!!!

The What

Someday this war is going end....

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 3:35 PM

It amazes me that people come on here and state that they can afford a 1, 2, 3 mil house but won't buy.

Prices are too high, the middle class can't afford NYC anymore....how sad!

Tell me how a middle class family that earns $80-100,000year is supposed to afford a $1m house/condo/co-op? Impossible!

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 3:35 PM

3:35 - it shouldn't amaze you at all. There are plenty of people who can afford to buy in NY but who (i) may have good rental situations, (ii) think they might have to move in several years and don't have confidence in the market, or (iii) think that as the market softens, they'll have more leverage. The point is, there are more and more people backing away from the NYC real estate market right now (that's locals, not foreigners). Tells you something.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 3:52 PM

BrooklynLove - 3:06 here. Real estate speculation isn't my gig and I'm generally swamped with my job, so short-term RE plays don't really interest me. As for my other investments, yeah I've done fine.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 3:57 PM

Re: the foreign buyers who are supposed to prop up the NYC market - foreign buyers are mainly interested in new condo developments (where they have amenities, can easily rent, etc) so I don't think that will prop up the Bklyn brownstone market very much. Eventually, all those Manhattan coop owners will no longer be able to fetch absurd prices for their properties that they turn around and plough into overpriced Bklyn bronwstones.

As for 3:35, I feel your pain since we too are in the middle class, even at 150+K per year (which, according to this blog, is pretty meager) but luckily we already own a 3BR prewar condo and even if the market goes down, we sold another property recently that is sitting in cash to buy a house. So, we have a budget of 1.3-1.5M for a house and we are sitting tight waiting for prices to soften - even if our condo softens, we can buy more house with our cash. And like everyone is saying, all signs point to, at last, a slowdown and hopefully a return to sanity. I don't think prices will crash drastically due to demographics (there is more demand and less inventory), but I can certainly imagine things going down 10-20% and some of the really over-reaching properties (i.e. that Betancourt listing bet 4/5, the Townsley & Gaye 14th St bet 4/5 St listing) to come down significantly more, esp as more listings will eventually have to come on the market and ease the inventory crunch...

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 4:03 PM

4:03, put your cash into a CD with 5% yield and you will be better off than buying now.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 4:22 PM

'But maybe he needs to shift to a lower price point'

'lower price point' is 800K in Crown Heights, Bed Sty???

35% of an income should be going toward housing. To buy an 800K house, one's income should be 185K.

to buy a $500K house, income should be 120K....Where do you find a house in NYC for that price?

PRICES HAVE GOT TO DROP, so the middle class can afford them!!

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 6:32 PM

The language on this website is shameful.

Mr. What, would you mind managing to rephrase much of what you write? As I have said in the past, the way in which you couch your arguments robs them of their force. People may enjoy reading angry comments, but I'm sure you could form more cogent arguments without all this swearing.

Anyway, it was amusing that between the holidays when there has been very little reaction to the articles on this website, this one today sparked tempers. Two weeks ago it might have had 200 comments, no? I wonder if that Bloomberg writer will bother picking this one up to do an article...

TheGrammarLady

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 6:53 PM

I'm in that middle class that can't afford to buy real estate in NYC.

My husband and I are self employed and earn about 100-110 a year combined. We'd consider our selves middle class, and compared to the average income across America, we're doing very well.

But attaining the American Dream of home ownership is alluding us. We don't want to live any where but NYC. We're in our early 30's, work, pay our taxes, have some savings, but we can not afford a $6,000 month mortgage for the average cost of an 800,000 house.

We're hoping to save enough money, that by the time we're 60 years old, we can buy a studio in the worst neighborhood in NY, just to own a slice of the pie.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 7:28 PM

A 20% correction needs to happen in the NYC market.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 7:31 PM

You know the market is softening, when real estate agents call you back.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 7:35 PM

"The language on this website is shameful.

Mr. What, would you mind managing to rephrase much of what you write? As I have said in the past, the way in which you couch your arguments robs them of their force. People may enjoy reading angry comments, but I'm sure you could form more cogent arguments without all this swearing."

I tried to be civil but, no more. I have to pay 3.25 for gas, 3.89 for whole wheat bread over 4.00 for milk because someone wanted to be a flipper. Inflation is killing us now! The flippers and the people who lent them large sums of money has messed things for the rest of us. America is going to have a Depression very soon. You can say I'm out of my mind but, deep down you know I'm right. I can't start to be nice again so. I will say and write what I feel. BTW no other nation is going to help us, they hate our guts. RIP Mutant Real Estate Bubble.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end....

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 8:51 PM

"Good luck to everybody--don't give up!"

Be a sucker. Buy a house, be a debt slave for Banking Interest!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 8:54 PM

Correction Time!!!

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 9:09 PM

This presidency is going to end in one year, but are we going to be better off. I don't think so.

Real Estate is an investment, just like stocks, bonds, funds, etc.

I wonder if 'The What' goes on Business Boards and discourages people from buying stocks, etc. cause the what thinks the economy is doomed.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 9:23 PM

"It's not the detestable flippers who you're misinforming with your rants, The Twat. It's the responsible people who need a place to live for the long haul, who you're encouraging to rent forever (or whatever it is, exactly, that you expect them to do). Piss off."

No Assfuck! Owning a House is a BIG responsibility!! The Math should make sense! Not this MUTANT shit you call a Real Estate Market stupid. People should live within their means and not drive the market to nose bleed levels. If any one don't like my comments, don't respond to them. JUST READ ON!!!!!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end.....

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 10:46 PM

Everyone should take The What's advice at 10:46 and ignore him.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:03 PM

Rock on, The What!! You swirly-eyed lunatic!! Keep 'em comin'!

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:05 PM

Nobody should be buying a first place at $800,000. Nobody ever did before. The problem with middle class first-time buyers these days is they want to skip all the usual steps other generations went through. They refuse to buy something small or in an area that's not ideal. They feel entitled to the $800,000 place in prime Park Slope as a first home. THAT's the problem. Ten years ago you didn't see first-time middle-class buyers going around believing they should be able to buy a place in prime Brooklyn Heights. They bought in Park Slope for cheaper, instead. Stop feeling you have to keep up with the Joneses, and buy what you can afford.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:09 PM

I just paid 800K for a two bedroom Asshat in Fucktard Gardens.

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:28 PM

Congrats. Fucktard Gardens is the new Park Slope.

Or is it the other way around?

Posted by: guest at December 27, 2007 11:58 PM

"Sorry, TW, but It's more fun to play with ya"

Ow man I can't let this one slip! Play with my nuts MOTHER FUCKER!!!!!!!!!!!!! REHAB!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end.........

Good night.

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 12:01 AM

yes, You can get something for less than 800k in Mill Basin, or Sheepshead Bay, or Canarise in Brooklyn.

And as a Middle Class person that bought their first house out in the boonies, you'll never be allowed to post on brownstoner again.

Sucks to be the Middle Class poor in NY

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 12:23 AM

Thank you 1:40, exactly.

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 2:16 AM

Clinton Hill is a shithole and is not convenient to subways.

If you think either situation will change soon, keep dreaming.

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 8:27 AM

new home sales down 9% MoM vs. consensus of negative 1.6%. brokers, please spin. nyc is different, right? foreigners will save us? not many "new homes"? long-term trends (young people want urban), etc?

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 10:04 AM

Whee! The What's trenchant testicular commentary begins!

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 10:54 AM

i take issue with people saying that all purchases from last year have lost equity.

it's not necessarily true.

2 apts sold within a year of purchase in my building in the last quarter and both were for over 15% of purchase.

i have been told by 2 different brokers that my place has increased by a minimum of 20-25%, and not only that, comps in my area (williamsburg) are higher than last year for similar condo, location, etc...

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 3:34 PM

You can get a 2BR coop on a good block in Park Slope that needs work for as little as $600K. Then do the renos bit by bit as you can afford them over a period of 5-10 years then you sell and make enough money to buy a house. Nobody gets a house as first home. Where does that even come from? I don't know anybody who bought a house as their first home. They all had apartments to sell first. We did. The only person I know who bought a house as a first-time homeowner after renting many years, is someone who sold a company for millions of dollars. Only a windfall like that or an inheritance allows you to skip owning an apartment several years, waiting for it to appreciate. If you passed on buying an apartment and were renting instead for a long time, and now have a family and need the bigger space of a house or large condo - that was your mistake. This is exactly how being overly cautious will hurt someone in the future.

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 4:18 PM

We bought a house from the get-go...why buy an apartment first? Is it really that necessary to go in the order of 1) apartment 2) house 3) country house?

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 6:07 PM

Same here 6:07.

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 6:21 PM

Well, if you paid attention you'd know I was speaking to those who in earlier posts said they could not afford a house even though they make salaries in the low 6-figures. So I was recommending they work up to buying a house, not sit around not buying anything because they are frustrated they can't buy a house immediately now.

Besides, the only way you are buying houses as first-time buyers is if you have help from family, or a big Wall Street bonus. At least admit that, when you're trying to claim people don't need to work their way up to buying a $800,000 to $1 million (or $3 million) property. We ourselves know plenty people who own houses and make very good money AND have family money, as we did too, and we all still needed to own an apartment first. This is to avoid the jumbo loans MOST people don't want to take on. But maybe some people have no problem with their bank owning most their house, not them.

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 6:59 PM

"i have been told by 2 different brokers that my place has increased by a minimum of 20-25%"

Fox reports henhouse is secure.

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 7:03 PM

6:59,
We bought early in the boom without family money (shunned it) and without a Wall Street bonus, just used saved money. I guess I can imagine that it must be harder for those trying to buy in after the prices went off the charts...just doesn't make sense, these prices! Well, we could have sold last year and walked away with more dough but I guess we'll stay put in FG barring any real disaster. I just hope the prices don't drop by half. Would really annoy me if we found we lost out on so much gain.

What do people estimate the percentage drop will be in prime Brownstone Brooklyn?

Would houses going for 1.8 and 2.3 today go for 1.5 and 1.9 next year? Or is the outlook worse?

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 7:53 PM

I wonder if Monsieur le What will comment on this...

H'mm...? Fort Greene...near the big idea that is Atlantic Yards...economy crashing...
Therefore: your house will be worth nothing!

I guess TW does not even have to comment on this...I just answered it myself!

Posted by: guest at December 28, 2007 7:59 PM

7:53,

Since WWII, home prices have followed average historic inflation (and more buyer-favorable rental and income rations). If this time is no different, a bottom to bottom estimation (last bottom to that of the future) would yield about a 50% drop. Most owners can't fathom it. But back in 1995, these same owners would not have been able to fathom a forecast that said prices would triple in value. Things are rarely what they seem. To popular opinion, it doesn't seem like Historic Brooklyn prices will drop by much but more shocking things have happened. If you can hold on long term, do so. If not, I would get out now.

Posted by: guest at December 29, 2007 12:13 PM

Blah de blah. Stats on national average-home-prices are useless here. Just go out on the sidewalk right now, seriously do it, and try and talk a New Yorker into moving to Kansas because they can buy a house there for 1/4 the price. Good luck! Ain't happening. We and everyone we know in NYC would literally not have a job if they moved outside NYC. The only work we can get in this whole country in our field is in NYC. Even an immigrant taxi driver the other day said to us, completely on his own unprovoked btw, that NYC is expensive but "it is the only place to make money". Prices may drop but not 50%. Dream on losers.

Posted by: guest at December 29, 2007 3:00 PM

Manhattan prices dropped 50% before (in the face of significantly stronger economic conditions)...

http://tinyurl.com/2sdeg4

But historic Brooklyn is absolutely immune to such drops because...

Posted by: guest at December 29, 2007 11:54 PM

"If real-estate drops by half in NYC, we'll all have much bigger problems. I will lose a lot of equity--for a while--and will have to tap into savings. YOU, and almost everybody else, will lose your job."

No shit. That's exactly where we're headed. Your starting to see the light. This is the worst housing fallout since the Great Depression. Housing has made up the lion's share of GDP for the last five years. Now it's in recession. Know what that means? The whole economy is in recession. You think our jobs are safe?

But you don't strike during the storm, you strike right after the recovery (many years from now). Prices in the future will be just as sticky on the way BACK up as they are sticky right now, on the way DOWN.

Posted by: guest at December 30, 2007 12:19 AM

"Would really annoy me if we found we lost out on so much gain." - 7:53

Prepare to be annoyed. You'll never see 2007 values (real terms after inflation) again in your lifetime...

http://tinyurl.com/g9vf4

Posted by: guest at December 30, 2007 12:23 AM

Well, guess we'll find out! It's not like people who own houses are going to run around screaming and trying to sell. What exactly are you hoping to provoke, here? Most people I know plan to retire in the houses they own. Their kids inherit the house. And your kids inherit....a rent control apartment.

Posted by: guest at December 30, 2007 5:34 PM

Actually, some times the kids inherit the house, and don't want it, and need to sell in order to distribute the value - we've seen a number of these estate sale type houses hit the market in the last year and they have each lingered and/or had price cuts. I would be surprised if prices plummeted precipitously, due to demographic pressures, but I also would not be surprised if they declined a good 20% and more for those properties that are obviously overreaching. I don't think any one individual on this list can "provoke" anything - the market is much bigger than any one person, obviously - but this list is a place where people who are clearly following the market closely come together to discuss specific properties and trends, and perhaps to help take the temperature of current sentiment. I know I for one see this list as just one of a number of sources I look to when thinking about our house search (we currently own a large apt, and are seeking to trade up to a house). I think it's kind of nutty how defensive some people get on here, I must say!

Posted by: guest at December 30, 2007 6:03 PM

"It's not like people who own houses are going to run around screaming and trying to sell"

No. They'll be doing it quietly.

"we currently own a large apt, and are seeking to trade up to a house"

Best advice: Sell, rent, buy at bottom.

Posted by: guest at December 31, 2007 7:46 AM