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December 4, 2007

Foreclosures: Same Book, Different Cover

nymagforemap1.jpg
This colorful map, published yesterday in New York Magazine, doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know, but it does it with better graphic design. The bottom line's the same though: Bed Stuy, Crown Heights, Canarsie, East New York and Brownsville are all getting whacked the hardest by the growing wave of foreclosures. The red zones all represent zip codes with at least 150 foreclosure filings.
Artifact: Foreclosed [New York Magazine]




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Comments

ouch. i guess being poor and uneducated sucks even more. the govt should be hauling these lenders off to jail and at the same time needs to get serious about public education.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:20 AM

What??!!!!! Brownstoner???!!!! Not you posting this!!!! What happen??!! Did you have a come to Jesus moment??? And BTW take Brooklyn and Queens and paint it all black. Plus the zip codes of 11238, 11216 and 11205 are DONE. If you are going to sell in the new year, take the money and run.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

I glad people are putting down the Kook-Aid

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:22 AM

Luckily the "brownstone brooklyn" of this blog - with the exception of bed-stuy & crown heights - are still safely in the green, so, party on!

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:29 AM

What, no foreclosures on Govenor's Island? Lucky bastards!

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:31 AM

What's up with Staten Island?

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:31 AM

It's on fire.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:33 AM

I love The What!

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:38 AM

I'm just happy because I'm holding onto my house and I'm looking forward to some nice people buying in our neighborhood who can actually AFFORD a decent price. enough with the through the roof prices! on another note, brownstoner, I love you.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:43 AM

These make pretty graphics - but since zip codes are not equal populations, nor comparible home ownership rates(renter vs. owner) -mean very little.
One reason foreclosure rate in NYC is low - is because home ownership rate is very low.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:48 AM

In recent months, Brownstoner has repeatedly posted maps like this showing the disproportionately high (and completely unsurprising) number of foreclosures in Bed-Stuy, Crown Heights, etc. It's sad. It's tough. A lot of us got in over our heads with the erstwhile ridiculously easy money.

But if you bought a house that you CAN afford, and have enough savings, a job, and some sense, and if you're not a flipper (or even if you ARE a flipper with the right combo of taste, timing, and luck)--you're gonna be fine.

Some of these commentators need to breathe into a paper bag for a minute and calm the fuck down.

Posted by: Rehab at December 4, 2007 9:53 AM

"I'm just happy because I'm holding onto my house and I'm looking forward to some nice people buying in our neighborhood who can actually AFFORD a decent price. enough with the through the roof prices! on another note, brownstoner, I love you."

Maybe someone can AFFORD a house in your neighborhood but, there will be NO MORTGAGES for them! Understand, there will be a CRASH in asset prices and no will be able to prevent that. Housing and asset prices are TOAST and we are in the first stages of this meltdown. This very bad folks, very very bad.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end......

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 9:53 AM

Holy crap!!!

41-75 foreclosures in PROSPECT PARK!!!

We're screwed! SELL! SELL!

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:03 AM

yeah what is this map tyring to tell us? it seems foreclosures in evergreen cemetery are pretty bad too. who's gonna move the bodies?

Posted by: Jimmy Legs at December 4, 2007 10:07 AM

breezy point is looking pretty stable.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:10 AM

The prices in brownstone Brooklyn are unsustainable. Even realtors will tell you that after they have had a few drinks.
But ultimately people get through it. A relatively small number will foreclose.
A new Democratic president and administration will almost certainly raise taxes. This will have a huge impact on NYC, the speculation capital of the world. Ultimately our econmy is built on hype. That is our chief natural resource and one of our principal exports. Slightly higher taxes will give the moguls apoplexy. They will retaliate by turning off the money taps. I have seen it happen before and that is what I predict for 2008-09.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:24 AM

Greenpoint is green! We love our oil spill, and we're not going to let any banks take away our front row seats!

Big up to The What!

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:26 AM

The map needs to represent a 3D model of NYC/Brooklyn and to be more precise by exact address or at least by blocks. the area code is too wide a net to have any meaning. Also, due to the high concentration of people and buildings and condos taking up the same amount of space as a single unit when looking at a map like this, you could have 3 foreclosures and 300 non-foreclosures in the same spot of the map.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:29 AM

The demise of 100% financing means the demise of lots of these neighborhoods. Many buyers during the 2002-2006 boom did not have the currently needed 5% for the down payment. Yes, many people don't have 25 grand in the bank.

Demand crashes, prices crash. Bye, bye!

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:47 AM

10:24,

Bush has waged unnecessary 3 billion per month war while spending and spending and you worry about Democrats coming in and raising taxes? You mean like when Clinton was in office and almost everybody was BETTER off? Pathetic!

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:50 AM

AGAIN,
THE ZIP CODE breakdown is not reliable.

Mr. The Vas, 11238 is a big zipcode. Once side of it, the western side, is probably doing well while the other, the eastern side, is not.

We need a much more nuanced break down...and by the way, it's snowing in midtown right now.

Look, let's consider: the boomlet is buying big time in residential "Brownstone Brooklyn". They, like their parents, probably plan on staying put for that "raising the kids" timeframe. The stroller generation right now is going to be around for 10 or 15 years or MORE in these houses so the bougified nabes will be rather stable.

For example, in FG, despite the flipped properties being foreclosed in the late 80's/early 90's, the nabe was pretty darned stable. Nothing hit the market and people stayed put.

I don't think people are now walking into FG and buying houses with 100% financing. This privileged crowd has resources and will "sit" it out.

Look, the built environment will continue to be valuable for the time being because materials are getting more an more expense. Also, despite the glut of stick construction in the burbs, rising gas prices and real estate taxes as well as the fear of buying a declining asset will probably make moving to these places less attractive.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 11:32 AM

I wish the map was a higher resolution.

Posted by: Polemicist at December 4, 2007 11:37 AM

Hey Fucktards (Yes Fucktards) Read this!

The End of Consumer Credit As We Know It
By Peter Schiff

http://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00282

The cosumer has NO MONEY, NO MORTGAGE PAYMENT and NO HOPE!
It's over over over over!!!!!!!! Look at the stories coming in today. Go to Bloomberg, CBS Market Watch and others. This is fuckety fuck fucked!!

The What <-----LMMFAO

Someday (soon) this war is gonna end....

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 11:38 AM

Anyone else worried about all those forclosures in JFK airport? I'm sure these statistics could be shown in ways to tell many different stories.

I'd be interested in knowing how many are families that are losing their home due to unsavory lenders (as is often shown in the news) and how many are flippers who anticipated more appreciation this past year, mismanaged their funds, and are now cutting their losses, since they had little money down. And there are probably many stories in between.

Posted by: Heatherie at December 4, 2007 11:50 AM

Not too long ago, banks required you to have a cash downpayment of 20% and 30% for commercial property. This keeps prices level and creates a world of buyers that are savvy and "wealthy" enough to save up that type of money.

If you could not save $30K or $50K or $100K then too bad. It tells of the types of buyers we had and now have.

Posted by: bmfesq at December 4, 2007 11:50 AM

Mr. The Vas, 11238 is a big zipcode. Once side of it, the western side, is probably doing well while the other, the eastern side, is not."

Rant of the clueless! ALL OF 11238 is cooked! From Fulton St. to Vanderbilt Ave to Classon Ave to Flatbush Ave and any thing I missed is Done!

The What

Someday this war is gonna end....

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 11:54 AM

What color is 11238?

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 12:03 PM

Looks like a high foreclosure rate on all those marsh islands north of the Rockaway penninsula. Those ducks and egrets must have gotten in over their heads.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 12:09 PM

those aren't stories you submitted, the what.

they are blog entires from amateurs.

it's silly to call a blog entry a "story" and pass it off as news.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 12:20 PM

"those aren't stories you submitted, the what.

they are blog entires from amateurs.

it's silly to call a blog entry a "story" and pass it off as news."

What?!!!!!! Peter Schiff is in charge of Euro Pacific Capital. This one the biggest Mutual Funds on this planet. Mr. Schiff has been writing about this asset bubble for years. Plus there is No MBD, CDO or any mortgage bullshit in that fund. Shows how clueless you are.

The What Hoo Boy

Someday this bullshit is gonna end....

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 12:45 PM

The What is still looking for his medication and doesn't have time to research actual articles for posting.

The What is the Perez Hilton of the hysterical real estate set.

Some day The What is going to get a job .....

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 1:06 PM

Hey Fucktards read this:

In an article this week that examined the troubles brewing in Citigroup's mortgage business, the Wall Street Journal focused on Natalie Brandon, a 51 year old married woman from Granada Hills, CA, who is currently unable to make the payments on her $625,000 adjustable rate home loan from Citigroup, despite the fact that the rate will not even reset higher until June of next year. Amazingly, the Journal reported that Mrs. Brandon bought the house in 1985 for just $105,000, but had chosen to refinance five times over the past seven years, borrowing more than $500,000 and spending every single penny.

While this may be an extreme example of American profligacy, it is by no means unique. Unfortunately this type of behavior typifies everything that is wrong with the modern American economy.

Had this homeowner behaved responsibly, as was typical for Americans of prior generations, her current monthly mortgage payments would likely be less than $600 and the remaining balance on her loan would be about $40,000.

In eight more years she would have owned her home free and clear, and would likely be on track for early retirement. Instead, after 22 years of making mortgage payments, she is now $625,000 in debt.

The article stated that she had recently tried to refinance into a 6%, forty year, fixed-rate mortgage, but it fell through. Even if she had qualified, she would have been obligated to make monthly mortgage payments of close to $4,000 until she was in her nineties.

For years, Wall Street and the media have been singing the praises of the heroic American consumer. To that end Mrs. Brandon could be portrayed as Wonder Woman. She did her part to power our consumer driven economy by borrowing and spending to her heart's content.

Her last refinance even allowed her to buy a brand new Lexus. As long as she could find a greater fool willing to loan her more money, there was no limit to what she could buy. As it turned out, Citigroup was the greatest fool, left holding the bag on a $625,000 mortgage on a house now likely worth only half that amount.

Is it any wonder that we have enjoyed such a vibrant consumer based economy when a working class couple with perhaps $60,000 per year of household income can borrow over $500,000 (tax free) and buy whatever they want with the money? As the bills come due and those who have been doing all of the lending finally realize they will never be repaid, this crazy consumption binge will finally come to an end.

As the losses mount, the credit crunch will spread from mortgages to auto loans and to all forms of consumer lending. The days of Americans borrowing to consume are finally coming to a long over due end. Although it seems like science fiction to Americans raised on credit cards, within a few years most will only be able to buy those goods they can afford to pay for with cash.

In the long run of course, this will be a very positive development. Borrowing to consume is a waste of savings and undermines legitimate economic growth. Money loaned to consumers is unavailable to finance capital investment. By squandering savings on consumption, a society undermines its future standard of living.

When businesses borrow to make investments, those investments generate returns which enable the principal and interest to be repaid.

When individuals borrow to consume, no investment is made and the loans can only be repaid out of reduced future consumption. As a result, business loans, especially when collateralized by real assets, are likely to be repaid, while consumer loans, collateralized by nothing but a promise to consume less in the future are much more likely to end in default.

As lenders finally figure this out, consumer credit will dry up, and the American economy will enter a prolonged and severe recession. Unfortunately, an economy that lives by consumer credit will die by it as well. Hopefully a more viable economy will eventually rise in its place.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 1:12 PM


"Maybe someone can AFFORD a house in your neighborhood but, there will be NO MORTGAGES for them! Understand, there will be a CRASH in asset prices and no will be able to prevent that. Housing and asset prices are TOAST and we are in the first stages of this meltdown. This very bad folks, very very bad."

The "mortgage meltdown" is nothing compared with the banking crisis of the 1990s. At that time, the government was taking over banks on a daily basis. Everyone said real estate would never be the same. What happened? Not only did the U.S. economic system not collapse, but real estate eventually skyrocketed. Extremists, like The What ALWAYS see the glass half empty. We're going to make it through this correction, too, and the Earth will continue to spin.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 1:39 PM

The What makes me want to buy property even more.

Just to spite him.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 1:52 PM

Eh 1:39 The crash of the 90's is a cakewalk. This Crash is a Motherfucking Clusterfuck! 3.5 Trillion Dollars of Fucked Assets. Your Pension Plan, 401k, Mutual Fund, Savings Account and any thing else is FUCKED FUCKED FUCKED FUCKED. There is no glass, it was foreclosed on. So you can say I'm full of hype but, the crash has already started. Good Bye. Hey Brownstoner please stop posting this overpriced shit, even the crackheads here can't afford that shit.

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 1:53 PM

It's about time. I have been looking for a second investment property and have been sitting on the sidelines for a while now. Like the 80's and through the dot com days the bubble has been building for some time. I scratched my head many times aksing myself, "How can these people afford this, these houses are overpriced". History does and will repeat itslef. The foreclosures don't really matter. The amount of demand does though. Spring 2008 might be a good time to jump in. Property will come back and eventually exceed these prices. We have only seen the first year of the slide and the first two years are the most drastic, so next year should be interesting. A couple of years of flat lining and we'll be back. This is merely an opportunity to shake your piggy banks if haven't been follish enough to get caught up in the recent histeria and have some equity to utilize.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 2:06 PM

If you pay close attention, you'll notice that most of the foreclosures are by longer term homeowners who consistently pulled money out of their appreciating homes and very unfavorable rates. This happens to be concentrated in areas with people with lower levels of education. Yes, that would be a a problem in the absence of demand. But in the case of Brooklyn and NYC in general, those people are still able to sell at a price similar to the last appraisal. Someone like 'the What' has some of the big picture right, but he's missing the trees for the forest. And yes, banks are more than willing to lend to customers with good credit and a decent chunk of money in the bank. NYC's vibrant economy has and will be producing this group en mass.

Architects and planners have been talking about the reverse migration of the echo generation and empty-nesters for the past 7 or so years. It accepted that this demand trend is shifting the growth focus of the built environment. Urban Infill and denser residential/mixed-use development is what is being demanded now and all parts of the real estate industry understand that (yes, even banks).

So, while Real Estate values at a national-level has sunk, there are different stories within cities as simple as Phoenix. Downtown areas (& especially areas around the new light rail) have held their values after the price surge, while suburban sub-divisions have been crushed. Even simple national media outlets understand this and the differences between cities on the demand side. http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/30/real_estate/redhot_markets.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007120210

In regards to 'the Whats' gloom and doom scenario: There has been a huge shift in the prevailing thought about what the government's role is in a financial crisis since 1930. Could there be a recession? of course, depression, we'll as Nixon once said, "we're all Keynesians now". Even the Republicans can live with big budgets and ever party can live with deficits in the short-run.
Price declines are possible anywhere, but don't let the scare mongers lead you to believe that our 200+ year old institutions are not effective anymore or that we haven't learned from past mistakes.

Posted by: lincolnlimestone at December 4, 2007 2:27 PM

greater detail on zip codes makes no difference. the fact remains that foreclosures are up in a neighborhood near you (and will continue to increase).

the whatnot

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 2:54 PM

Does The What really exist?

Hey Chicken Little, the sky may in fact be falling but you have no credibility, so why should I (or anyone) believe you. If you want to be helpful, own your statements and stop making anonymous rants.

Otherwise, it's impossible to take you seriously.

Posted by: BKNYKEV at December 4, 2007 2:56 PM

Great post, 2:27.

Everything you said about the reverse migration back to cities is very important in this equation. I agree with you. People graduating from college these days no longer migrate soley to the suburbs where there parents live. They want something different...something with vitality. More often than not, that life comes in the form of an urban environment.

This, along with the impedning "green" revolution, I see the migration back towards cities and the closer in dense suburbs will only continue to roar forward over the next decade or two.

We simply don't have the resources (or the demand) to continue ruining the land 45 miles, 60 miles outside of these cities any longer. It's time for a different way of thinking.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 2:59 PM

2:59, that is nice. but people right out of college can't afford nyc real estate (or even 10 years out for that matter), so it doesn't really apply here. that is why the center of the country keeps drifting further south and further west every day. what you're talking about is probably happening, just not around here.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 3:08 PM

i don't agree, 3:08. i moved here directly out of grad school. as did every one of my friends. no, they haven't all bought real estate but they don't want to live anywhere but here for now.

anyone remotely liberal has no interest in the south, and the west ain't a lot cheaper than here.

most people i know from the east coast prefer living on the east coast to the west, from my experience.

and btw, i have yet to be out of school for 10 years and i am now a homeowner in park slope.

and i work in the arts.

and my parents aren't funding me.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 3:21 PM

"This happens to be concentrated in areas with people with lower levels of education."

Really? The amount of education? How about GREED and STUPIDITY???!!! Education has nothing to with greedy little fucks who thought they was going to make a killing from REAL ESTATE. And now it's crashing around their heads. I feel like that Aflac Duck.

The What

Someday maybe I get a job.....

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 3:22 PM

The center of the country over 55 is moving south and westward.

Not the young, aspiring professionals of the U.S.

Trust me. They did a study some time ago about graduates from Yale. Something like 70% of them end up moving to New York City directly after graduation.

This is the place to be for those with drive, those who work in the creative fields, those with interest in Finance, etc.

No one out of Yale says...GOD...I REALLY want to move to Phoenix.

And no, I didn't go to Yale...

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 3:36 PM

I think The What needs to get out more during the day.
I'm not suggesting anything as radical as getting a job or anything like that, but maybe just step out and talk to people once in a while. Spend some time away from the media outlets and especially from the business news.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 3:50 PM

3:22
Do the research. In many, many cases you'll find un-savvy people who used their home as a piggy bank taking out HELOC after HELOC. Most of these people were given property from family or bought a long time ago.
But in almost zero of the cases I've seen, these buyers have received very little discount. I've tried this form of arbitrage, and it's a waste of time.
The upside is that when these unfortunate (some would say irresponsible) people are forced to sell, most of the neighbors welcome the buyers who are much more responsible property owners.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 3:59 PM

3:21 and 3:36, great for you. have you ever studied statistics? anecdotal observations are not trends. you are outliers. and didn't you see the press on artists being pushed out too? there go the creatives. i have been in nyc for 5 years, work on wall street (equity analyst), save much more than i spend and still can't comfortably afford a starter apt in park slope. no shit.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 4:06 PM

i too moved directly to the city after college (literally, the next day). i started in Chicago, then moved to NYC. I also bought real estate.

And, like the other big trend, when i got married and had a kid, i stayed in the city.

no plans on leaving ever.

not sure what the What wants me to do, but i'm going to get up and go to work everyday and then pay my bills, including my mortgage, and just keep on enjoying my very good life here, in my very nice condo.

Mr. the What - am i just supposed to shoot myself or become instantly miserable? don't get it...

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 4:17 PM

today's prime non jumbo 30 yr fixed rate is 5.75%. jumbo is 6.625%. apparently the world is not coming to an end, at least not as of today.

Posted by: BrooklynLove at December 4, 2007 4:19 PM

Mr What not - What's crashing down around our heads is your misplaced logic. 2:27 and the subsequent posts have torn your argument to shreds.
Leave the scare-mongering tactics for the Giuliani and the Republican National Convention.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 4:19 PM

The What chose someone who was fiscally irresponsible as an example of what is wrong with the housing market. If anything, he pointed out that some home owners can't control their spending. What this has to do with the current state of affairs is debatable, but such people have always existed and always will. The news media doesn't report on these people when times are good, but crazy people like The What can't disect the news he is receiving to understand how it should be interpreted.

Some day The What is going to get wise.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 4:30 PM

Ah Brooklynlove, my new fucktard. Lets see you get that rate on a commitment letter for a mortgage. There is a thing called risk. Look at a mortgage matrix from any mortgage company or bank. You will never see that rate because the secondary mortgage market has blown the fuck up. On bond trading desk around the world, they WILL NOT buy Mortgages from America. We have fucked the world and our self with this toxic shit. Very soon you will see it all and by that time I hope you be safe from this shit.

Our Economy is based on credit. When credit dries up, there is no economy at all. So you can sit there thinking every think is OK but, it's not.

The What

Open you eyes.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 4:42 PM

"i have been in nyc for 5 years, work on wall street (equity analyst), save much more than i spend and still can't comfortably afford a starter apt in park slope. no shit."

i have a feeling we have very different ideas of "starter apt." only way to explain how i managed to buy and you haven't. i assure you i probably make less than you do. my mortgage and maint. is around 1600 a month. before tax deductions.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 4:44 PM

4:06. Don't be fooled by your own anecdotal experience. 3:21 and 3:36 are actually part of the trend.
NYC is forecasted to add millions in population over the next 20 years. That is part of the reason why we spent millions of City money on Bloomberg's PlanNYC. Read it over if you still are holding on to your opinion. Or pick up any recent issue of the ULI's magazine.
Of course NYC is not very affordable, especially to recent grads and artists. But consistently surging housing demand has changed all Western Brooklyn neighborhoods, and families starting out are buying into lesser-priced neighborhoods.
Unfortunately, areas of Brooklyn too is becoming a playground for the wealthy, for better or worse. But because of our economy, those people are not going away, they're coming in droves.
Also, you are trying to buy in a neighborhood priced similarly to Manhattan (i.e. one of the most expensive in the U.S.), so of course you will think this. There's a whole world of other options in Brooklyn besides Park Slope.

Posted by: lincolnlimestone at December 4, 2007 5:02 PM

What - why don't you go rant on MiamiBeachCondoFlipper.com or DetroitSuburbanSpeculator.com, where your constant regurgitation of what you read in the financial press might actually hold water with the people who care to read it. turn off cnbc and do some homework.

Posted by: BrooklynLove at December 4, 2007 5:41 PM

Mr. B: If your site is accurate and you are monitoring the posts for appropriateness, why do you allow The What to make such innappropriate comments like "Fucktard?"

It is bad enough his crazy ramblings take over some strings, but the cursing is inappropriate, adds no value and wastes everyone's time

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 5:53 PM

Downturn = Buying Opportunity
No doom and gloom to be had.
Buy low, sell high, still a good formula.
The What, do you have any equity to jump in or is that why you are angry?

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 6:25 PM

There will be no giant crash you blithering band of boobs. New York magazine has been on a tear for about a year now, breathlessly ranting and raving about the "end" of housing in New York City. Wake up and smell the ganga dopeheads, there will be forclosures just as there have always been, during the height of the recent boom in real estate 2002-2005, there were foreclosures. Let's make a map painting all the zip codes with dog attacks, or child molesters or increased farts and pass it off as a story to all those dimwits who will take the story and run with it. It's called selling a story and selling papers or magazines. Not to mention, selling a political agenda; check out the latest hit piece on front runner Guiliani in the latest New York magazine. Here's a useful guide in case you didn't know: New York Magazine: liberal, New York Times: liberal, Daily News: populist leaning Left (anti-Rudy) , Post: conservative, and on and on, sttart learning about the sources of your news. New York City will still be here next year, some folks richer and some poorer. To go on about how the end is near like some alarmist twit only proves that misery does indeed love company and reveals these parasitic posters to be nothing more than one dimensional thumbsuckers stuck in mommie's basement for way too long.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 6:55 PM

"What - why don't you go rant on MiamiBeachCondoFlipper.com or DetroitSuburbanSpeculator.com, where your constant regurgitation of what you read in the financial press might actually hold water with the people who care to read it. turn off cnbc and do some homework."

No because I live here

"Mr. B: If your site is accurate and you are monitoring the posts for appropriateness, why do you allow The What to make such innappropriate comments like "Fucktard?"

Don't read or respond to it.

"Downturn = Buying Opportunity
No doom and gloom to be had.
Buy low, sell high, still a good formula.
The What, do you have any equity to jump in or is that why you are angry?"

I own a house. Plus in a downturn no one is going to loan you money to buy anything. We have taken on huge debt to become "rich". How can you say that todays prices will hold for years to come. Inflation (due to this bullshit) has robbed the purchasing power from everyday people. These people didn't have anything to do with this Mutant Real Estate Bubble shit. Now it's time to pay the piper. Here is nice reading for you (since I don't know what I'm talking about) Fannie Mae has a market cap of 4.7 trillion dollars making it the 7th largest company in the world. They are 6 billion dollars short and has NOT reported any finaicials in 3 years. This why I rant. To the people who understand, you will come out of this OK. To the FUCKTARDS I hope you lose everything.

Fannie Cuts Dividend, Offers $7 Billion in Preferreds
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_nWbr7A3XsQ&refer=home

The What

Someday this war is gonna end...

BTW If I'm not posting on this site, Brownstoner.com will be very boring

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 7:46 PM

AHHHHH! ALL VERY FUNNY! You are all giving me a chuckle! I had better get dinner on the table though...

Mr. What has a great sense of humour!: "BTW If I'm not posting on this site, Brownstoner.com will be very boring"...and so well written compared to his rants! I LOVE it! You're a scream! Though...Dearheart, I wouldn't mind a little less of the swearing. It’s very off-putting and doesn’t do any of your arguments any service.

So...if people keep their jobs and don't have "salary side", most people who can afford their mortgages/taxes/etc. now should be okay going forward, no? Maybe, (Mr. What, care to comment?) people who "paid too much" will be in a bind and not able to sell...but what if they can stick it out?

All in all, maybe we'll have people walking away from their homes and the banks will eventually sell off these properties for less to recoup something back. The level of housing pressure seems high enough in NYC, even if people get laid off noticeably in the next two years, that properties in Landmarked Brooklyn will not languish empty for years? Or am I naive?

And then there is the trend of people who are well set buying multi-family brownstones and making an owner triplex or single family home which puts more pressure on the housing market. No?...

I'm nervous. Should a nice couple in the heart of FG sell now and move to Vermont?

PLEASE, I would love advice. I feel I may be aging out of NYC somehow...I want more fresh air and less noise sometimes (and this from someone who gets out of NYC to NE all the time)…just don’t know if this is becoming a bad time to sell.

Oh, by the way everyone HAPPY HANNUKAH!

TheGrammarLady

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 8:41 PM

What: I am not expecting real estate to hold its' value. Real estate value will drop, I agree. I actually hope it drops to a level lower than it should for a while. I am counting on it :-) . A market correction is long overdue. Don't assume though, that real estate will stay down. It will drop, it may stay flat for a while, it will then climb at more traditional rates of appreciation awaiting whatever the next market influence occurs to drive it nuts again. Long Term, real estate never goes down. This is a blip. It will appear as a blip on any chart spanning time. Long Term: Real estate always goes up. I dare you to prove me wrong. This may take years, but I got time.
Some people will not qualify, that is true. They never would have qualified without sub-prime loans and won't now that they are gone. So we are back to basics. You have a good credit history, you have cash on hand, you will get credit. Go back in time, (pre-subprime) nothing has changed, other than the fact that the same opportunities are about to exist that occured in the late 80's through the early 90's before this craze. Remember then or are you to young to have some historical perspective.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:04 PM

``Not too long ago, banks required you to have a cash downpayment of 20% and 30% for commercial property. This keeps prices level and creates a world of buyers that are savvy and "wealthy" enough to save up that type of money.

If you could not save $30K or $50K or $100K then too bad. It tells of the types of buyers we had and now have.''

Unfortunately, there's not enough "market" if you limit things this way. In the old days, banks were tightly regulated and "creative" financing schemes were a thing of pre-market crash days when stocks were bought on margin.

During the late 80's, all those greedy investment banking houses revived the "creative" kinds of financing and so was born the CDO's and other packaging of long term investment vehicles. But what to do, since these schemers needed a bigger market to inflate their capital, a wider audience needed to be suckered in to make these "loans" so as to increase the investment banks profits exponentially.

The money is created when the lenders sign the promissory note; mortgage. They , the "lenders," take these as assets on their balance sheets and create securities to be sold to the greater investment market.

So now you have the "lenders" getting paid the principal AND interest and their only expense is the interest of dividends on the securities they packaged and sold. As you can see, to make more 'money' you HAVE to 'loan' more of it out or simply create more mortgages.

This system (pyramid scheme) only works if the buyers of the securities feel that these secured instruments will appreciate in value. As long as they hold on to them and the 'lenders' keep paying the maintenance to the investors all is well.

But we all know that if confidence, this is by all means a confidence racquet, erodes then the investors will want to cash in their securities. When the "subprime" lenders begin to default, it restricts cash flow but also, the "collateralized assets" on their books take a dive. This erodes the value of the CDO's and created a panic to those CDO holders and they begin to run on the 'lenders.'

But it really doesn't matter to the 'lenders' they made their money, commissions and fees during the initial first steps and after they bought the securities to the grater investment market. The real losers are the CDO holders.

So the current situation was a banker's wet dream and they made their money to the detriment of the rest of us. Of course individual greed played a great role in this fiasco. But greed is a useful tool in the hands of the "creative" financiers that got us this far.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:17 PM

If The What didn't post on this site, the conversation would be much more interesting.

Get a job What.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:26 PM

some drops - some a lot, some not so much. the stuff in prime areas, and of high quality will retain premium pricing. take away the flipping and easy money and pricing may finally better reflect fundamental value, so maybe the crap and stuff located in less sought after locations will now be cheap instead of expensive, but don't expect a fire sale on the good stuff. not going to happen here.

Posted by: BrooklynLove at December 4, 2007 10:45 PM

You said it 10:04, PERSPECTIVE. That is what is missing from these mindless rants that some here call amusing and I call blithering drivel. Perspective based on NYC history, on population trends, on housing trends, on globalization trends and economic trends. There are posters here who take the usual liberal 'sky is falling" routine to a new extreme. This is both insulting to our intelligence and sadly shortsighted. And whatsmore, it's become all too prevalent in our culture in general. Sniping bottom dwellers looking to score a scare out of folks or the cheap thrill of causing a "ruckus" in the chatroom.
Here's some sober perspective: NYC has been here through the Dutch days, the great fire, the British days, the Revolution, Colonial days, the war of 1812, the Spanish American war, the Civil War, the riots, the great migrations, the great flood, World War I, the Great Depression, Hurricanes, World War II, the urban decay of the 60's-70's, The Blackout, the race riots, the first WTC bombing, the tech meltdown, 9/11 and despite all that....will continue through the "subprime" hysteria currently gripping a few pitiful posters here. People will always need a place to live.

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 10:49 PM

``but don't let the scare mongers lead you to believe that our 200+ year old institutions are not effective anymore or that we haven't learned from past mistakes.''

Thing is, the ONE institution that came on the scene in 1913 IS the one that is causing all the grief for their selfish interests. That institution is the FED and the international bankers that run it secretly from behind closed doors. Since there is no oversight as to how our money supply is managed, that 200+ years of history means SQUAT!

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 11:12 PM

``not sure what the What wants me to do, but i'm going to get up and go to work everyday and then pay my bills, including my mortgage, and just keep on enjoying my very good life here, in my very nice condo.''

Imagine one day you go to the ATM and it declines to give you the cash you need. That's what's coming down the pike for most of us. Even if you pay your bills on time, and you are employed and own property. The "liquidity" crisis is the time when you go to the ATM to get cash and there is none.

It isn't a question of what "the what" wants you to do, it's more a question of "did you plan properly to survive this mess."

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 11:20 PM

Here's the first of the higher profile "liquidity" crisis' that will make their appearance with more frequent regularity to a state (heck the whole US) soon:

http://tinyurl.com/2j4qw2

Posted by: guest at December 4, 2007 11:41 PM

Has The What stopped posting as himself and become another hysterical "guest?"

Get a job and don't forget to take your meds, What.

Posted by: guest at December 5, 2007 9:37 PM

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