Market Slowdown? Not in Manhattan and B'stone Brooklyn

What are Wall Street bonuses expected to be like this year? Goldman's having a record year, right?

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 9:56 AM

I don't know anyone in foreclosure or being threatened by it, but I do have a good friend who is a mortgage officer at large NY bank (you would recognize its name). He told me mortgages are WAY down and his salary is about 1/3 of what it was last year (salary based on commission, spread, etc). He says it is almost impossible to sell non conforming (jumbo) loans now. Conforming loans are readily available at favorable rates, but there isn't much you can buy for ~$420k (+ down payment).

Anyway, just passing this along for what it's worth (probably nothing).

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 10:11 AM

My husband and many of his friends work on Wall Street. The general consensus is that overall bonuses are going to be just fine. Goldman's bonuses are actually likely to be the highest they've ever been (sigh). As for the rest of the banks, they are likely going to take a hit in their fixed income groups (the group affected by the sub-prime stuff) but investment banking revenues have been good this year so overall the banks' profitabilities are likely to be somewhat normal.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 10:26 AM

Where's "The What" for this one

This thread SCREAMS out for a witty, well placed "Apocalypse Now" qoute.

come on what , come on!

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 10:55 AM

Mr. What, he dead.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 11:02 AM

This supports 10:26 comment

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071002/pending_home_sales.html?.v=4

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 11:09 AM

What some of us have been saying for the past few months. All you need to do is go to open houses and talk to people in the market to realize that things have been strong.

What I want to know is where are all the people who for the past 6 months have been saying that the world is coming to an end???

Let me guess..The crash is coming in 2008, right?

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 11:14 AM

wrong comment
This supports 10:11 AM comment

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071002/pending_home_sales.html?.v=4

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 11:17 AM

"Real Estate offices and Mortgage Brokers are closing up shop."

Once again. WRONG.

Brown Harris Stevens is doubling the size of its Park Slope office. They just opened a Prudential Douglas Elliman on 7th avenue in the slope and they are opening a HUGE Corcoran office in Williamsburg.

Your information is always completely off the mark. You call 36 points down a DUMP?

You don't know anything, clearly. You are wasting your time here.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 11:55 AM

The last two sentences are the only ones that matter:

“Housing is a trailing indicator of economic conditions... We most likely won’t see a reaction until after the new year to the credit crunch.”

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 11:59 AM

Way to go The What!
Mixing it up wit the G Orwell this time

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:00 PM

I've always wondered, isn't it a huge conflict of interest to have these brokerage firms themselves conducting an analysis of the market? It's their own bread and butter after all.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:01 PM

OF course...11:59!!!! The crash will be in 2008.

You were only...what...6....7 years off??

I'm wondering how exactly you think that housing prices in New York will decline significantly, when there is so little inventory?

Ever heard of supply and demand?

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:04 PM

Yes, you're right, The What.

All the money in New York has dried up.

Gone.

Because you say so.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:16 PM

"The last two sentences are the only ones that matter:

'Housing is a trailing indicator of economic conditions... We most likely won’t see a reaction until after the new year to the credit crunch.' "

It would matter if it were true. In previous cycles it wasn't home price appreciation that drove the economy (resales, refi's, heloc's - consumer spending). The same cannot be said this time around. Housing IS the economy. Where housing goes, economic reports will follow. So far so good for lower Manhattan and Brooklyn. Queens, Bronx, Staten Island, outer Brooklyn? I don't know.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:19 PM

Home sales are a trailing economic indicator. The real carnage will show up in six months.

Just like you all were saying six months ago. And six months before that. And six months before that... Gosh, I wish I had the good sense to cash out on my brownstone in 2002!

Eventually the market will go down, of course. Eventually. A stopped clock is right twice a day. Doesn't mean you should hang it on your wall, though.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:25 PM

The What is Real Estate Broker?

thx for the heads up.

I am placing a large grain of salt next to monitor as I type.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:26 PM

This is going to give a huge boost to confidence for buyers.

You are going to see a lot of people in New York jump back in after a couple months of hesitation with this news. The press is a huge factor in all of this you realize...

The Park Slope top 10 isn't gonna hurt either.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:26 PM

a stopped clock is right four times a day if you imagine the big hand and little hand are switched for two of those times...

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:28 PM

A clock in "Apocalypse Now" is right eight times a day, if you count:

1. if you imagine the big hand and little hand are switched for two of those times...

2 Siagon time and US Time

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 12:36 PM

still waiting for "THE DUMP," "THE WHAT"...

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 2:50 PM

Another thing to consider is the fact that the the dollar is at an all time low to the Euro and now worth less than the Canadien dollar. This will cause inflows of capital from overseas. New york is an international community. A weak dollar means foreign investors will seize upon the opportunity to invest in New York and other tier 1 cities in the US, thus propping up the NYC residential market, potentially until the braoder national market rebounds.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 3:21 PM

"other tier 1 cities in the US"

such as??

I think you said it perfectly, although I do not believe the U.S. has any other tier one cities, which means that foreign investement in New York continues full throttle.

While I love San Fran, Boston, LA...if you want to consider them tier one...fine...but they are not cities where lots of people from other countries are investing heavily.

As you said, New York has now FINALLY reached the ranks of a world city (in terms of real estate values) of London, Paris, Sydney, Tokyo, Zurich and other world cities.

It's actually still a bargain, even though no one wants to hear that.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 3:44 PM

Still waiting for that "dump"

Sr is ending the day with the 2nd highest level ever your version of a dump, the what?

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 4:43 PM

Perhaps everyone is already aware of the fact that not everything will be rosey all the time but prefer to look on the bright side of things instead of constantly predicting the end of the world as we know it.

It's stupid. Everyone on here knows housing prices go up and down. The What brings no new information to the table. He simply regurgitates the "bad" press with a bunch of expletives.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 4:56 PM

I believe the credit issues you speak of are currently in the process of coming under control.

This is a good thing. No need to talk of impending doom every day. There are good things in the world.

You could have said congrats to Park Slope for their honor today instead of inserting some rant on the credit crisis.

There are certainly lots of problems in the U.S. These problems will be solved a lot easier without mass panic and hysteria and dated quotes.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 5:31 PM

Since this site is about brownstone Brooklyn let's stick to that specifically. Brownstone prices won't fall if nobody is selling. Not with the demand for the houses up against shrinking inventory. People are staying long term in these houses. They're not flippers, the vast majority. There was a wave of lots of houses on the market over the last 5 years as the longtime homeowners who bought in the 70's and 80's cashed out upon retirement or in old age. I don't know about you all, but most the homeowners on our block are young. Not old. They arrived only in the last couple years. There won't be another large wave of sales until the new homeowners' kids are going to high school, if they leave at that point. Or when they retire. Again only IF they leave at that point. Those who wanted a house and put it off are only going to find a much smaller inventory now.

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 10:13 PM

Hey, I don't know anyone that bought in the 70s and 80s who's ready to cash out "upon retirement or in old age." Most of my neighbors in Clinton Hill bought from the 60s through the 90s, and we're still living here, most working, and doing nicely with our paid off or fixed rate mortgages, thank you - not playing shuffleboard somewhere. We know plenty about woodwork restoration, plaster detail, parquet, heating and plumbing. A lot of us are in our early 50s. Some of us bought as graduate students, some right after graduation. The young whippersnapper couple that bought recently next door and can't figure out how to maintain their plumbing is an aberration on our block, thank heaven. Someone please teach them that just because you spent over $1M for your house doesn't mean that you can forget about getting recommendations, hire the cheapest plumber from the yellow pages, and then claim you're being "exploited" when the asshole disconnects your heating system and insists on $2G cash at 3AM to restore your heat in the middle of the winter. We ain't cashin' in yet, folks, despite the arthritis and cataracts (which will be your lot soon enough)...we've got affordable housing in what you're telling us is now a hot neighborhood. Why move now (and where did I leave my dentures and my cane)?

Posted by: guest at October 2, 2007 11:14 PM

You're actually illustrating exactly what I was saying, 11:14pm. That people who buy these houses stick around long term. And you'll note in my post I did say "only IF they leave at that point." Meaning not everyone leaves. I did say that.

I think you reacted to something in my post that wasn't really there. I wasn't saying anything hostile whatsoever.

Posted by: guest at October 3, 2007 2:08 AM

Most of my neighbors are indeed in their early to mid 30's and own an entire brownstone.

They all look like fun, young, hip couples and the men are HOT.

Posted by: guest at October 3, 2007 10:49 AM

11:14 here. Sorry if I overreacted; maybe I was just thinking of the preppy guy who rang my doorbell this summer, announced himself as a "developer," and told me he'd researched my house on propertyshark and was there to offer "what FOR YOU would be a lot of money." When I asked him if I looked senile, he looked confused and kindly informed me that it was "time for you to cash out." I told him my health was just fine and politely refrained from kicking him down the stoop. Yes, I was once in my early thirties and owned an entire brownstone. Now I'm in my early fifties and still own the same brownstone. Seriously, no hostility intended. If the new generation is bringing in hot men, sounds good to me (though they haven't yet bought on my block). As long as they don't have fistfights with incompetent plumbers in the wee hours of the morning when the rest of the world is trying to sleep, we should all get along just fine.

Posted by: guest at October 3, 2007 11:40 AM

yeah, no...hot men i referenced are in park slope.

lots of em.

wives are kinda cute too.

Posted by: guest at October 3, 2007 1:28 PM