The Argyle: Using 5th Avenue to Sell 4th

Pardon my ignorance, but there's nothing at the Argyle site but a hole in the ground yet. Isn't this a little early to be opening a sales office, or is this normal?

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 12:19 PM

I've been wondering what this space was going to be. It looked so nice...I thought it was going to be some great new restaurant or something.

Oh well. This is good too. Any filled vacancy along here is a good one, in my book.

Well there are a couple exceptions, but pretty much anything.

5th Avenue is so pleasant these days.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 12:29 PM

Of course it makes sense to market the Argyle on Fifth Ave, as there is very little foot traffic along the stretch of Fourth where The Hole That Would Be Argyle sits. A bit of a paradox I suppose. But aren't these guys a little late to the game? Isn't the area already saturated with unsold and unfinished condos?

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 1:14 PM

nothing got "kicked out" for this place.

something else didn't renew their lease.

then the space stood vacant.

then this set up shop.

let's at least get that straight.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 1:22 PM

Two articles for you, 1:14.

And the answer to your question is, no.

http://www.gothamgazette.com/article/communitydevelopment/20071003/20/2306

http://www.nydailynews.com/boroughs/brooklyn/2007/10/02/2007-10-02_park_slope_named_one_of_the_10_best_neig.html

New residents are outpacing supply of homes. It's quite simple.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 1:25 PM

Something Else didnt get "booted" for this - they left b/c they couldnt afford to pay the market rate rent for this location - which makes sense since cd's and records are essentially obsolete (at least as a bricks and mortar purchase).

As for the workers logic - I dont think it holds up - people are asking what is going in b/c they are hoping for a good retail store not b/c they are looking for a condo - that being said it makes sense to sell 4th on 5th b/c right now there is nothing to sell about 4th Ave.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 1:27 PM

when the landlord starts blabbering how they can triple the lease, I say it's being kicked out. You can use whatever euphemism you want. Plus, when the bldg sold they and Puppets were told to get out or face legal action. No lease offered. Let's get that straight.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 1:29 PM

So, Something Else got kicked out because they couldn't afford the market rate rent. I don't see the problem with that. Though I suppose if you have a problem with it, you could have offered to pay the difference to the landlord to keep their rent artificially low.

It's no more the landlord's responsibility to keep the store's rent low than it is yours.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 1:38 PM

yes, population is outstripping new housing, but asking prices are outstripping pay (not to mention the massive wall st. layoffs happening this year)

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 1:40 PM

Argyle's website says "Coming this fall." Uh. Yeah.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 1:46 PM

Exactly 1:40, thank you.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 1:47 PM

and so 1:40 and 1:47 - they will either have to lower their prices, sit on empty units until incomes rise(expensive) or rent units at prices that enough people can afford - in all senarios the addition of housing units is good for this demand:supply mismatch

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 2:48 PM

The permit in the front window of the "shop" mentions something about renovations of existing apartments, not building demo apartments. I think its a viable distinction.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 3:08 PM

1:25 and 2:48,

How do your links and statements support your answer ("no") to the questions asked by 1:14?

Just wonderin'.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 3:22 PM

The answer was no because I see ZERO saturation of the market in Brooklyn at this time.

I see...especially in Park Slope very little inventory...I see price increases on places like the Heritage...I see sales going briskly at both Novo and the Crest despite their lackluster exteriors and sketchy developer.

I also see the neighborhood attracting a large amount of new restaurants and businesses, I see 4th Avenue turning into something I never would have imagined 10 years ago and I see more and more people wanting to make Park Slope and New York City their home. Someone made a comment about pay being out of whack...and while they might be true for some...it obviously is not true of all the people buying property at these places. Maybe you're pay hasn't caught up, but some people's are I guess. Mine has increased about 10K in the last 2 years, so who knows...maybe some people just need to look for better paying jobs if they want to live in a million dollar apartment.

How does that not answer the question?

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 4:33 PM

good try, 4:33. my pay has increased about $100k in the past two years as an analyst at a hedge fund and i still can't afford most condos in park slope (am conservative and insist on 20% down as everyone should). say what you will about my spending habits, which are not exuberant - i rent a pretty affordable 2br in 321 district and pay less than half what a mortgage in the area would cost me for the same space. so, if i feel like i can't afford a place in the neighborhood, what about my recently laid off wall street brethren and all those who earn less than we do/did? your observations of recent sales are driven by better, more optimistic times when you only needed 5% down and a pulse. not sure that you will see the same going fwd for a while. plus, i think nyc represents the top of the food chain in incomes, so not sure how more people moving here from other parts of he country will change much. i could be wrong, just my opinion...

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 4:56 PM

Actually given that 76% of all homes in New York City are co-ops, no, I was not referring to 5% down becasue in my co-op as with pretty much every other one I know of...they require 20% down.

I'm afraid my observations are based in reality. There is so little inventory on the market right now...it is in fact lower than in 2006...so no...I am not referring to pre-exuberant times. I am referring to today.

I am dating someone who works in the Brooklyn Real Estate market and what I've gathered is that while the press has talked of an apocolypse now situation it is far from what is actually happening in New York City (and definitely not happening in Park Slope) because of a DRAMATIC drop off in inventory.

If it's a good product in a good neighborhood, it is selling.

A 2 bedroom listed on this site today sold for 600 something in Park Slope. You can't afford that on your...I'm guessing at least 200K a year salary?

You aren't doing something right...

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 5:08 PM

4:56- You really can't buy. I don't get it. Your shoes must rock!

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 5:24 PM

Here's some predictions:

if people assume that prices are going to increase,more people will be looking to buy and willing to pay a higher price

if people assume prices are going to fall, fewer people will be looking to buy and those people will be more cost conscious

if prices exceed the affordability of too many people thereby leaving a large amount of inventory - prices will fall

If mortgages are harder to come by and go for a higher interest rate this will negatively effect affordability

If incomes rise or if more higher income people just decide stay in the NYC to age and raise a family, prices will rise

Final Prediction - what does all this mean for which way prices are going to go - ABSOLUTELY NO ONE ON EARTH KNOWS FOR SURE - and all your little anecdotes, newspaper articles and social commentary doesnt change it -

until time passes its all just opinion (i.e. no one is "right")

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 5:25 PM

interesting, b/c all the places you mentioned in your first post to justify your theory were condos, not coops. what i didn't say is that i am a financials analyst at a hedge fund. so tell your boyfriend that wall street layoffs and credit market turbulence will take a couple of quarters to make it to "reality". when they do and the inventory currently in the brooklyn pipeline (including pk slp) comes onto the market for that "hot" spring selling season, your decreased inventory problem will be a thing of the past. forget media reports. i know well respected sell-side financials analysts screaming recession right now. i know tons of fixed income people expecting the axe (after the mortgage people already announced). i know people making much more than i do and not buying real estate. i know that the CME futures market is currently pricing in a 12% price drop in nyc real estate. so good luck to your boyfriend. i hope he's better than most... maybe i'll call him in 2010 and put in an offer at 90% today's asking on that condo up the street (if i still have a job)...

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 5:35 PM

you've got issues, 5:35.

so clear from your post.

if you are a financial analyst for a hedge fund and "still can't afford most condos in park slope" you are spending way too much money on gambling, hookers, drugs or a combination of the three.

i'm dead serious.

you are absurd.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 5:42 PM

someone else's viewpoint on all of this...

http://afinecompany.blogspot.com/2007/10/recipe-higher-prices.html

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 5:57 PM

yeah, you're right. i'm just making this all up.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 5:59 PM

5:39 I personally think in the long run your probably right about RE being overpriced but that is just an opinion - like yours. I wonder however if you realize how stupid you sound using your job in financial industry and the futures market to make your opinion sound like fact when it is the complete misreading of valuations and risk by your industry that is causing the current credit crisis and fear of recession.
Objectively using recent history, your job makes your predictions and the futures market predictions LESS reliable.

Just admit you really have no idea what will happen with Park Slope housing prices and simply comment on what you do know - job losses and reduced bonus.

Posted by: guest at October 4, 2007 8:29 PM

The Wall Street guy clearly CAN afford to buy in Park Slope, but he chooses to rent because he believes real estate prices are going to fall. That's a big difference. Prices may well go down... or not. No one knows, but we all have opinions. (I'll spare you mine.)

Someone said earlier that "76% of all home in NY are co-ops" and that is definitely not true. The vast majority of NYers rent (something like 80%).

Posted by: guest at October 5, 2007 2:06 PM

sorry....wrong 2:06.

wall street guy's direct quote was:

" i still can't afford most condos in park slope"

nice try though.

might want to actually read the comments next time before you post.

Posted by: guest at October 5, 2007 3:41 PM

First off the project has a stop work order for damaging the neighboring buildings, allowing debris to fall onto other properties and other various violations. The developers have been extremely bad neighbor's and 311 has been called numerous times!I would think twice about buying here to to the sheer inexperience and lack of respect from the developers. No wonder they are trying to sell now with nothing but a hole in the ground; I foresee the finished product to be shoddy and cheaply done. Anyone who buys a product sight unseen today is really asking for it especially when this won't be finishes for 3 years. Did you see the renderings? They decided to lanscape all of 4th avenue!!!

Posted by: guest at October 6, 2007 6:34 PM

it certainly will be better than anything else on 4th avenue.

and those pieces of crap have been selling out.

thanks for your useless bantor, 6:34. i don't think we should trust a competing broker for info on this development.

Posted by: guest at October 6, 2007 9:11 PM

I also work in the financial sector and realise there are genuine fears of a recession caused by a downturn in the housing market. Greenspan effectively went too far in reducing rates after the tech bubble burst in 2001. This created cheap credit and resulted in the housing bubble we've seen over the past few years, and the sub-prime issues we see today. The US housing market is now 1.5 years into a downturn (as indicated by lower growth rates). We will likely see contraction of US real estate prices soon. This hasn't happend since the Great Depression of the 1930's (fact). Since growth in consumer spending has been largely dependent on re-mortgaging and releasing equity from homes, the downturn will inevitably have a negative effect on economic growth.

New York is indeed a special case. However, growth in real estate is largely dependent on City bonuses. On Friday Merrill Lynch took a hit of $5bn on losses from sub-prime. Anyone working for them, who still has a job next year, can pretty much be guarenteed less bonus. They are unlikely to be the only ones taking massuve hits. The worst case scenario will be wide-spread layoffs in the financial sector.

Having said all this, the dollar is likely to continue to get weaker, especially against the euro, where a lot of people have been buying up New York Real Estate. When you compare NY real estate prices to London or Madrid it's relatively cheap still.

I've recently moved to Park Slope and hope the Argyle gets canned because it will ruin my view of downtown Manhatten. I bought here knowing there may be price declines in New York over the next few years, but also that hot areas always do well in the long run.

Posted by: guest at October 7, 2007 4:43 PM

to the dude who works for the hedge fund, with a 100k salary increase...

you rent, but you don't own anything, which means no tax deductions for you, or investment. that's like throwing money out of the window, to me.

Posted by: guest at November 2, 2007 3:25 PM