Market Downturn Reminder That All RE is Local

you gotta assume -- as "realty dude" -- that he's selling client's places. he can't tell people when to move.

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 10:26 AM

With one open house, a unit in my North Slope co-op building was recently sold for double the amount (and above asking price) that the owner had paid for it four years earlier. A few months ago, I read an online article that predicted the imminent bursting of the bubble - the article was from 2002.

Meanwhile, prime Brooklyn neighborhoods continue to gain value...

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 10:28 AM

where are the suburanites moving to? are they moving to other suburbs? or to cities? they have to be going somewhere and why has that market really been hit hard?

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 10:33 AM

oops,
add a "b" above please

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 10:34 AM

"where are the suburanites moving to? are they moving to other suburbs? or to cities? they have to be going somewhere and why has that market really been hit hard?"

I was wondering the same, since I'm the one who posted about it earlier. I know that my parents have a lot of friends who are downsizing or want to. One may be moving into the city, for example. There are many people from their town (on LI) that are moving south. And nothing in my hometown is selling right now, according to a realtor friend who's been selling there for 20 years (and this is not a fringe town at all - upper-middle class, great commute, great schools). The real issue in the suburbs, I think, is that the "move up" buyers cannot sell their homes for what they need to in order to "move up" to the boomer/retiree places. It would seem to me that the retirees will want to sell more, so they'll have to cut prices so that the move ups can afford to move up; then the move ups don't need to be so stringent on their prices (not that they won't try - greed is a prevalent disease nowadays).

I am looking in Westchester and have seen several homes under contingent contract, and my realtor once told me that (at least where I am looking) that those contracts are generally b/c people need to sell one home to buy another.

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 10:58 AM

I think that the main reason the burbs may languish on the market is that younger generations are taking longer to move out of the city. The retirees are looking to sell and downsize, move to florida, etc. but the current crop of 30 somethings that are starting families are not rushing to the burbs like they used to. Now they are staying put in the city longer, waiting longer to start families, or finding more urban 'suburbs' like Brooklyn.

If this shift in mentality holds true and the suburbs begin to lack the desirability they once had it could lead to some major market changes. Supply may continue to increase and prices drop outside nyc while Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx continue to experience strong demand.

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 11:17 AM

I don't think there are any statistics to support that suburbs are becoming less popular and of a 'back-to-the-city' movement. Maybe among someone's limited group of acquaintences but is not true of general population. Growth of NYC has been immigrants from other countries not from transplants from LI and Ohio. The continued trend is outward from NYC.
If NYC suburban prices have slowed or declined a bit is because interest rates are going up, and prices there also have increased dramatically (and of course their RE taxes).
I think if people stop using 'bubble' (which infers something will become next to worthless when popped) and start using 'correction' you may get more agreement then disagreement.
The bubble people here seem to be in is that property in their or some particular neighborhood have increased way out of proportion compared with NYC region as a whole.
Prices everywhere have climbed dramatically here regionwide - not just brownstone Bklyn. .

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 12:24 PM

If , in the suburbs, people are "grabbing up" homes in the 350k range, and 700k homes are languishing, then that could explain the entire 2% drop, since more sales are happening below the median. Thus for everyone else, the market is, on average, a 0% gain or loss. Wouldn't areas that are desirable or are still rapidly gentrifying (like the areas most people who visit this site live in) be most likely to continue to gain in price?

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 2:09 PM

anon2,

what do you do for income?

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 3:12 PM

To 2:28 - have a country house and felt we might like to move permanently - but found that couldn't imagine living there. People were lovely and some things are great but there but found the conservatism and religiousity off putting - there was never anyone I could talk to who I could feel connected to - so we will grow old in CH I guess, at least surrounded by great people

Posted by: Anonymous at May 11, 2006 5:32 PM

I can't speak to whether there's a real correction going on in NYC right now (cause I'm not in r.e.), but I do think there is a seller attitude correction going on. A year ago, people were pulling asking prices out of the air. My neighbor (who is a broker) sold her PS brownstone AFTER uping the asking price no less than 3 times.

As usual properties in excellent condition, located in traditionally popular areas will hold their value better than others. R.e. is a localized phenomena by nabe, by housing type, by price category, etc.

Posted by: Anonymous at May 12, 2006 10:21 AM

If you're under the impression that many former Manhattanites reluctantly traded properties with cheaper Brooklyn, is it unreasonable to predict that the market will reverse and a good chunk of these people will return to a more affordable Manhattan leaving a void in Brooklyn?

Posted by: Anonymous at May 13, 2006 11:17 AM