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December 23, 2005
Market Predictions for 2006: Neighborhood Picks
In what is now becoming an annual tradition, we invite you to share your thoughts and predictions for the Brooklyn housing market in 2006. Like last year, we're particularly curious to hear your neighborhood "longs" and "shorts". On a risk-adjusted basis, we're most bullish on Prospect Heights and Carroll Gardens and, relatively speaking, would bet against Williamsburg. Overall, though, we don't think 2006 will look at all like 2005, which was marked by huge surges in prices in some rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods. From where we sit, 2006 is looking like a year for the market to take a breath and digest all the rapid-fire changes that have occurred in recent years. Barring a big move upward in rates, we think prices will more-or-less move sideways. In our own little corner of Brooklyn, the big test will be whether the upscaling of Fulton Street can extend beyond Fort Greene. Man, could we use a gourmet market in Clinton Hill! Anyway, that's how we see it. But what do we know. We'd rather hear from you.
Happy New Year.
Brownstoner
Comments
The #1 market next year will be.... the Bronx
Posted by: David at December 23, 2005 11:42 AM
2006 will probably show modest price increases for the established nabes. But there will definitely be significant decreases in areas perceived as "borderline" (such as Crown Heights, Lefferts Manor/PLG, and Bed Stuy). More and more buyers will shy away from sinking their money into underdeveloped areas and will instead sacrifice space (and original details) in favor of location, location, location. Look for more luxury condos on the edges of the established areas as people will pay wads to be next to hot hoods.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 12:12 PM
There is the epicerie on Vanderbilt, tiny but they have good meat and bread and such.
The associated on Myrtle, while miles away from a "gourmet" shop, is WAY better than it used to be--you should appreciate the fact that you can actually buy proscuitto in the neighborhood now.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 12:13 PM
Park Slope, South Park Slope, South South Park Slope, Greenwood Heights, 4th Ave Corridor
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 12:13 PM
while we've seen many a rant about brownstoner's expertise or self proclaimed lack there of, one can't help but wonder...what exactly are brownstoner's qualifications to comment on the nyc/brooklyn real estate market and to go so far as to make micro-market nabe predictions?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 12:13 PM
Long: DUMBO, Fort Greene, Southside Williamsburg and East Williamsburg, border area between Clinton Hill and Bed/Stuy, Prospect Heights, St. George Staten Island, Astoria and LIC Queens. Also long the detached houses of the whole Midwood/Flatbush area.
Short: Crown Heights, Prospect Lefferts, the parts of Bed/Stuy that yuppies are not moving into (mainly in the North East), Gowanus, and Brooklyn Heights
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 12:21 PM
LONG: Ft. Greene, Red Hook, Clinton Hill, and Bed Stuy
SHORT: Crown Heights, Prospect Heights
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 12:51 PM
Brownstoner, why are you short Williamsburg? Too many buildings in construction or something else?
Posted by: Brian at December 23, 2005 12:52 PM
How about a summary of last year's posts so we can assess the collective insight of the brownstoner bloggers
Posted by: boneyguy at December 23, 2005 12:56 PM
Northside Willliamsburg has become an international destination,will continue to increase in value faster than most of borough
as waterfront and parks evolve.
Posted by: Bob at December 23, 2005 1:02 PM
There is most definitely a "gourmet" shop opening on the corner of Grand and Lafayette, and I believe it will be run/owned by a French proprietor. I spoke with a man working inside the building last month, who was French, and said that the store would have a seating area in the front for coffees, nibbles, etc., and the remainder would be "gourmet" foods. I could hardly contain myself. And, Brownstoner, it's right up the street from you! As of November, it was supposed to open in December.
Posted by: alex at December 23, 2005 1:12 PM
Except for the waterfron Williamsburg is over. If developers and the unexperienced brokers who fuel them with false and misleading information to expect sky high prices, buyers won't even bother with the Williamsburg waterfront. No services, horrible transportation, loos of charm that used to make it a special place. People should remeber how long it takes to really establish a neighborhood Park Slope/Cobble Hill/Boerum Hill took something like 25 years to become an established prime neighborhood and there is still work to be done!
Posted by: BREUKELEN at December 23, 2005 1:13 PM
Long: N.Williamsburg,Greenpoint,Red Hook,Carroll Gardens,L.I.C
Short: DUMBO,Park Slope,Brooklyn Heights
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 1:19 PM
Long all neighborhoods next to prime ones. i.e. the part of crown heights next to Prospect Heights, the part of bed stuy next to clinton hill, greenwood heights, sunset park, etc.
I think the prime neighborhoods will stabilize or have slight increases but there are still a large number of people who want to buy but are priced out of the prime areas.
There will be increased interest certain blocks of Crown Heights - those with the great architecture, and Sunset Park - Corcoran is starting to explore SP due to the stock of Brownstones and the stepping stone that Greenwood heights has offered.
Posted by: Ben at December 23, 2005 1:22 PM
I wouldn't long or short any neighborhood. As far as prices go I think the whole city pretty much goes u/down together. Yet house prices should stabilize and buyers of new condos will have more choices and much less pressure.
I think we'll see more development along 4th Avenue and Atlantic Yards will continue to be major newsmaker.
Also 'upscaling' of commercial is likely in Clinton Hill.
And selfishly hoping for fewer nightspots on Smith Street.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 1:27 PM
i'm hoping for some decent shops on fulton in clinton hill. it seems when anyone discusses this, it's always up near myrtle. fulton is awful and really needs everything, i.e., supermarket, deli, somewhere PLEASE to purchase fresh veggies. i hear a new condo development might happen near the post office on fulton by grand. i'm only for new development if it brings in some decent merchants.
Posted by: amanda at December 23, 2005 2:03 PM
Carroll Gardens all the way. What with Gowanus and Red Hook now hot destinations instead of places to be avoided, CG is becoming more and more desirable. As for gourmet food choices, let me mull my options on where to buy my holiday food: Caputos, Espositos, Fratelli...Be jealous Clinton Hill. Be very jealous.
Posted by: cocco at December 23, 2005 2:06 PM
Can Carroll Gardens get more expensive? I was living there when I was ready to buy, but it was too expensive after that. I bought in Kensington. I want a gourmet market there so badly.
Posted by: Ken at December 23, 2005 3:13 PM
Coney Island is the place in 2006!
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 3:41 PM
Carroll Gardens is the sleeper because of local school, PS 58. For years the yuppies would just get a variance to go to PS29 because PS 58 was run like a catholic school. Now there is virtually no difference in terms of test scores and philosophy and 58 has much better facilities such as a real gym.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 3:45 PM
Carroll Gardens has always been Carroll Gardens -- a beautiful and safe place to live. Fort Greene, on the other hand, went through a renaissance; it was always beautiful in terms of housing stock, but it had some really hard times. Thankfully, it's back. But because it had a renaissance, Fort Greene got lots of press. Carroll Gardens has stayed below the radar. People are finally catching on.
I think Clinton Hill/BedStuy, Gowanus (especially the 4th Ave. corridor) and Crown Heights are the other neighborhoods to watch.
Posted by: doodooonmyshoeshoe at December 23, 2005 4:21 PM
sunset park is the next hot spot
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 4:41 PM
what about windsor terrace??? close to park and the slope? any thoughts?
Posted by: William Sherr at December 23, 2005 4:43 PM
Gourmet market?
How about a decent public school in FG, CH, PH, RH, 'berg?
That why I'm long on Ditmas Park and Brooklyn Chinatown (Sunset Park-Bayridge-Borough Park border area).
I'm definitely short on Williamsburg, but strangely long on Greenpoint and Bensonhurst.
Posted by: bkborn at December 23, 2005 4:46 PM
I live right at the bottom edge of Windsor Terrace, I think just over the border into Kensington. Windsor Terrace is really nice, but it can also be difficult if you rely on the subway.
Posted by: Ken at December 23, 2005 5:13 PM
I'm long on the landmarked part of Bed-stuy/Stuy Heights - not necessarily the part closest to Clinton Hill. As someone posted here not too long ago the A train is infinitely more convenient than living on C train. Beautiful buildings too!
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 5:33 PM
walking around Dumbo on a quiet week-day leads one to believe that it's an amazing and unique place. was there yesterday and noticed a brand new gourmet supermarket openned. The J condo building will be oversized but the rest, the area actually between the two bridges represents the old and new New York.
Just like Soho, it will always go up in value. There's just a finite amount of property there and the rich will always be attracted to that, not to mention the spectacular views, restaurants, streets, etc. I don't live there (i wish i did) and it's hard not to believe that Dumbo won't thrive.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 5:54 PM
Long on Bed-Stuy - but not all parts of it. The area close to Fulton along the A train and the part that borders Clinton Hill...
Already noticed a new restaraunt that's underway on Macon and Stuyvesant Ave
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 5:58 PM
Shortem all. The top is in. They're all going down. YOY prices will be down by the end of '06. Prices are already flat from July.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 6:02 PM
Long: Renting anything.
Short: Buying anything.
Becoming a homeower (you don't own it until the note is paid) now would just be catching a falling knife. Wait until the Spring '06 "Rush for the Exits" tour. It's gonna be wild and crazy. Market will get a slight bounce and then hang on. The intense political season will only enhance the flawed policies that let the market get as crazy as it has.
Next stop is down because it sure ain't going up anymore, and there aren't any greater fools left to absorb the rising tide of inventory. Spring and Summer will be harsh reality check.
Keep abreast and stay informed if you are foolish enough to jump into the housing market unless it's for the long term.
Lots of perspective at http://www.thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/
W. still the worst commander-in-thief ever.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 6:28 PM
i bought in 79 a loft in soho for 95,000. It's now worth 4.5 million. Through the years, the doomsayers crowed just as loud as those above. I cannot tell you how many agents and know-it- alls said, "sell,sell. the markets going down. blah, blah" The lesson I learned is that if you buy quality, it will always retain value and there will always be a demand for it. Especially now (and unfortunately, so) the rich are proportionally better off than the poor. They will spend their not so hard earned money on property with intrinsic value such as beachfront, Soho, Fifth Ave., the West Village, etc.
My advice when buying is to seek real lasting quality and don't be full of fear from listening to others who know as much about the future as your fortune cookie.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 7:22 PM
I agree with anonymous at 07:22! This speculation is ridiculous. It's not horse racing, options or puts. Perhaps brownstoner coming from a Wall Street dayjob is looking to put some sort of spin on the info? But look what happened to Henry Blodget. It's not a liquid asset with public filings and private info. that can't be traded upon officially and can be hyped for better or worse. It's just houses. People live in them. If they want to buy them they do. If they don't, they don't. That's all.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 7:42 PM
Okay, out of sheer boredom I guess I checked out the blog recommened above about the so-called housing bubble. It's written by some guy in Northern Arizona. I think the national issues are only somewhat related to our area at this point. Interest rates obviously being the key issue. But the interest rates are still incredibly low. So stop freaking out people. Houses in Brooklyn are not going up by the hundreds/thousands like you see in the rest of the country. (Well, except for Williamsburg and Ratnerville I guess.)
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 8:59 PM
I am sying red hook is going to go up a good amount in the coming years due to the , development that is going into the area. The Ikea , Queen mary, Carnival cruise lines and waterfront that will be developed will make it a remarkable area. Red hook has the housing projects to deal with, but so does Dumbo ! Also Dumbo has a Power plant and high cancer rates. be careful wherever you buy
Posted by: ron at December 23, 2005 9:18 PM
I am sying red hook is going to go up a good amount in the coming years due to the , development that is going into the area. The Ikea , Queen mary, Carnival cruise lines and waterfront that will be developed will make it a remarkable area. Red hook has the housing projects to deal with, but so does Dumbo ! Also Dumbo has a Power plant and high cancer rates. be careful wherever you buy
Posted by: ron at December 23, 2005 9:18 PM
long on stuy heights area of Bedsty between the A train stops of Nostrand and Utica. People will come to grips with the fact the Fort Green and Clinton Hill are just too darn expensive for them and look at the next best thing. Plus I hear you can still park your car there!(for now)
Long on Dumbo cause Manhattan money doesn't mind buying there
Long on Bushick area along the L line as hipsters keep moving farther out
Short on boerum hill at the very high end, like the one family "State Street Houses" that corcoran has marketing for way above two million.
Hold on the rest of Brownstone Brooklyn
Posted by: Anonymous at December 23, 2005 9:49 PM
Long: Crown Heights, Sunset Park, Bed Stuy east of Marcus Garvey.
Short: Clinton Hill, Park Slope south of 5th, Brooklyn Heights, Red Hook.
There will always be a contingent of people looking for more space, which Brooklyn still provides.
Rationale for neighbohoods long: many older homeowners are retiring and moving South, leaving beautiful and brownstones with details for the renovation.
Posted by: vautrin at December 23, 2005 10:21 PM
9:49, Ixany on the arkingpay in Bed Stuy!!!
Long on Red Hook, Bed Stuy and Coney Island.
Short on far South Slope, Greenwood.
Central Slope, Caroll Gardens, Boerum Hill...they're already overpriced. Don't think they'll go any higher.
Posted by: anon at December 23, 2005 10:23 PM
I meant ixnay. Need to brush up the pig latin.
Posted by: anon at December 23, 2005 10:24 PM
Anon, 9.22pm,
The Queen Mary and Carnival Cruise lines are going to make Red Hook "remarkable"? Ha -- sounds more like a living hell to me.
As for Fort Greene being overpriced, I guess this confirms it: http://newyork.craigslist.org/brk/rfs/119708220.html
I guess for $2.2m, you don't even get a spellcheck.
God bless the bubble...
Long: Equities, Poker.
Short: Real estate.
Posted by: brian at December 23, 2005 11:31 PM
long: buying someplace to, like, actually live.
short: buying to speculate, unless you have a lot of $$ to burn.
Posted by: longtime wburger at December 24, 2005 12:57 AM
12.57,
Even if you theoretically had a ton of cash to burn, wouldn't you think there's a trillion better opportunities out there? Just because you have a lot doesn't necessarly mean you *want* to lose it.
long: NOK, TWX, OPSW, PFE, MSFT (conservative).
c.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 1:07 AM
tremx - long
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 7:45 AM
Does anyone out there subscribe to that whole "Contrarian" theory? According to that theory, if I am correct, the neighborhoods that *everyone* says *can't go down* in value are presicely the neighborhoods that will go down in value the most if there is a correction. The neighborhoods that everyone says *the knife will fall* on will actually fair the downturn the best.
According to the theory, the previous posts portend that established neighborhoods such as Brooklyn Heights and DUMBO will go down the most if there is a downturn, while *borderline* neighborhoods such as Crown Heights, PLG, and Bed/Stuy will fair the best
Can one of you Wall Street guys please correct me if I understand this theory incorrectly?
Thx
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 9:15 AM
what about Bay Ridge??
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 9:20 AM
Well it sure sounds like there are plenty of fools left in Brooklyn. That should work out great for sellers (that can actually convince someone to commit). Remember that renting is still far less expensive than buying when all of the costs are added in. Along with the average cost of a home or condo, you are going to have an ever shrinking pool of buyers who can neither afford these ridiculous prices or will find renting to simply be a better deal in the short term. Eventually prices will revert to the mean and a lot of over-extended morons with interest-only or option ARM loans will end up folding because the rents in their brilliant investment wont cover the mortgage payment.
Just like Jesus, Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy, and the Easter Bunny, the reality of these insane prices will come crashing down like the child who saw mom & dad putting presents under the tree or the realization that people can't come back from the dead or walk on water. Reality will return soon enough.
Just do the math on a $1.5 million dollar building and you'll see that renting is a lot less expensive. And if prices do go down (and they will) you will have no one to blame but yourselves...the evidence is all around you. Just be patient, these things take time. But consider, that if it went up fast (and it has), it can also come down fast too. A 30% haircut will only bring prices back to 2000-2001 levels.
Don't believe me, just go to an open house (many happening at Xmas time no less...very, very unusual) and see how much action there is. Want to take guess on activity level? I'll give you a hint...it's dead. D.E.A.D. Lots of people want to sell, but nobody is coming by to even look (except curious neighbors who wonder if they should sell too). If you have any friends in real estate you can trust, just ask them.
I sleep well at night having cashed out...do you? And can you handle the coming haircut?
Posted by: Happily in cash at December 24, 2005 9:29 AM
Happily,
I can see a potential 30% shaving happening in some of the zestiest markets -- Viva Las Vegas, Florida sectors, Arizona, etc. -- but do you really think that's possible here in NYC? I think maybe 10%, 15% tops, is possible, but that's worst-case scenario.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 9:58 AM
Just go back to 1991 and look at what happened to NYC real estate. And the market wasn't nearly as bubblicious along with Americans using their homes as ATMs and really over-extending themselves.
NYC is not immune. To think so is just whistling past the graveyard or that W. is ONLY spying on calls to al-Qaida.
My greed and blindness were cured after the market crash in 2000. Try to be objective about the facts and I elected to err on the side of caution, because I don't expect wages to increase along with price of housing...globalization is taking care of that. Why pay you $100,000 to do something that a kid in India will do for $18 or $20K? China is helping to keep consumer product prices down, but housing just keeps rising...something is wrong when the cost of renting is so substantially less than buying.
Happy Holidays
ps: Tamiflu will not solve your birdflu, but it will make Donald Rumsfeld richer.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 11:05 AM
-anon 11:05
what 2000 market crash? NYC boomed from '99 to date.
-mr. happily in cash 9:29...nice job on the comment, your eternal damnation is confirmed and guaranteed your everlasting burn, fyi;you're bunking with Bin-Laden.
-brownstoner, do you have any idea what you're talking about?
NOT
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 11:59 AM
Ok Bubble-Heads, FYI a quick check on On Line Residential, a site for brokers who co-broke, shows that this week alone 18 houses in Brooklyn went into contract or O&A. They range from $3,995 mil. in B/hights to $504,000 in Bed-Stuy.Out of 111 houses on the site that is fairly impressive for 1 week. Can any one say Bonus time. The numbers do not include the sale of my house in PS, above ask thank you very much,or the house I am buying in Bay Ridge,also this week. The reasion for my move is a "cash out" to a bigger house and I won't have to rent out a part of my house to help cover the mortgage.And I have found 3 other buyers in the last year alone on my new street have done the same thing, all from PS, or Borhem Hill.Yes I will miss PS but the Ridge feels more diverse and "working Class",but for how long? So if it's deal you are looking for go long on the "ridge", bigger houses at 1/2 the price of the northern nabes. P.S. I am a RE Agent in Manhattan and an Appraiser too. Have a great New Year everyone.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 12:12 PM
disgusted, we're so over your rants and raves. just leave us alone to have our fun.I don't think I'm an expert, but i love being an armchair observer. why do you care SO much. I bet you live with your mom, alone. and you're in your late 40s. ew.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 12:20 PM
Looks like some folks should adjust there MEDS. for the New Year, or maybe start takeing them.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 12:41 PM
you dont have to go as far as Bay Ridge for a single family house half the price of Park Slope. Prospect Lefferts Manor has some of the most pristine well crafted single family homes in New York city. It is next to Prospect Park, Garden and had a rocket of a subway to Manhattan (20 minute commute). These house were built for the wealthy at the turn of the century. They are half the price of Park Slope and no renters...
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 2:19 PM
I did look in PLM last year and I have know people who love it there,But the houses were still 300 to 600K more than BR. PLM a smaller nabe with less in the way of services,and the BR train ride is 10 mins longer than my ride from PS.It just made more sense for me the BR thing. Happy Holidays All
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 4:45 PM
Please learn to spell folks! You act like experts in the RE field but can't spell simple words like reason. Please!
Posted by: anon at December 24, 2005 10:17 PM
Please learn to spell folks! You act like experts in the RE field but can't spell simple words like reason. Please!
Posted by: anon at December 24, 2005 10:18 PM
Long: Harlem and Washington Heights
Short: all of Brooklyn
(The infrastucture is already there. Within a few years, all Manhattan will be golden and you'll still have to walk over the Brooklyn bridge in the freezing cold if there's a transit strike.)
Posted by: Anonymous at December 24, 2005 10:57 PM
"disgusted" got deleted. brownstoner supports the defamation of Jesus and Santa. nice.
"happily in cash 9:29"-jewish or just a hater?
what to buy?...LLL!
Posted by: Anonymous at December 25, 2005 2:13 AM
Was jesus really real??
This is worth a look see.
http://www.thegodmovie.com/clip-TheGap.php
Happy Holidays
Posted by: Bill O'Really? at December 25, 2005 9:58 AM
"World's Monetary Debt to Israel Doubles"
Wait a second. If Israel has enough money to loan to other countries, then why is the US still sending them billions every year?
http://www.israelnn.com/news.php3?id=95169
World's Monetary Debt to Israel Doubles
13:49 Dec 20, '05 / 19 Kislev 5766
(IsraelNN.com) Government and private loans to other countries have doubled in the past year, with world debts totaling $24 billion as of September 30. The Bank of Israel reported the amount is more than double than that of last year as Israel turns from a borrower to a lender.
Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer also said that Israel's credit rating will improve several months after the elections because economic policies are stable despite political uncertainties.
******************************
U.S. Congress approves transfer of $600 million in aid to Israel
While cutting social programs here at home.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/661833.html
U.S. Congress approves transfer of $600 million in aid to Israel
By Haaretz Service
The United States Congress approved Friday the transfer of $600 million in aid to Israel, according to media reports.
The reports state that the money is to be used to fund joint security projects between Israel and the U.S.
Of the $600 million, $133 million will be used to develop the Arrow missile program, a collaborative project between Israel Aircraft Industries and Boeing.
Some $10 million will be invested in developing a missile capable of intercepting short-range missiles.
Israel carried out a successful test of its Arrow anti-missile system earlier this month, which Defense Ministry officials called a response to the increasing threat of ballistic missiles in the region.
The test launch came as a Russian newspaper reported that Iran has signed a deal to buy Russian tactical surface-to-air missile systems. The reports comes one day after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon warned of the dangers of a nuclear Iran.
*****************************
Posted by: The Truth hurts at December 25, 2005 10:17 AM
to anoynomous 12:12 welcome to the big BR. Bay ridge doesn't seem to me to have the upside fringe brooklyn nabes have but also less downside. the ole risk/reward thing. however to the poster PL manor and BR are in different worlds. PL manor may have nice asthetic houses but thats where it ends. BR has excellent public schools, resteraunts, specialty stores and parks. since the waterfront park started falling into the harbor it is getting redone (although it will never be like hudson river park due to brooklyns second rate class status). Negatives- slobs who leave their garbage/ dog shit and air conditioner parts all over shore road park (the rest of the area west of third avenue is spotless). does not have that nyc/ brownstone brooklyn feel to it. commute is not the best 30 to 45 minutes to Union Square. too many goombas on third avenue at night and in the hood. doesn't have that hip feel to it..........yet. thus the lower prices.
Posted by: adam at December 25, 2005 12:32 PM
Adam, can you refrain from posting racial slurs on brownstoner. thanks
Posted by: Anonymous at December 25, 2005 9:57 PM
i'm so sorry, i didn't know the PC police was monitoring me.. are you italian? do you even know any? even other italians use the word goombas. for the record i did a google search on the word. on the first page alone there are 2 pizzarias named goomba pizzeria. are they racists too? what should i say, many people who think they are on the sopranos (is the sopranos racist?). too much bridge and tunnel or should i just say too many italians(that's not racist, huh?). to me goombas include all races and its a type of lifestyle. have you ever heard of the TV show growing up Gotti? (is that racist?). when i grew up in queens we had jewish kids who thought they were goombas. Boy i consider myself liberal but this what the right means when they say us liberals are too PC. Until then have fun at your rainbow coalition meetings and stop calling me a racist. thanks
Posted by: Anonymous at December 25, 2005 10:39 PM
that last posting was mine.
Posted by: adam at December 25, 2005 10:41 PM
one last thing. i just did a google search typing in goomba italian. on the first page there we have a Seattle italian festival featuring a band called Tony Lestella and the Goombas .next we have a book written by Steve Schirripa from the Sopranos entitled A Goomba's Guide to life. then yet another pizzaria called goomba pizza.Not to mention i found out that there is a charactor from the Super Mario game is even called Goomba. So there we have it. The people running an Italian festival, a book written by an Italian, 3 pizzaria owners, super mario and me all use racial slurs. next time you want to slander somebody please get your facts right.
Posted by: adam at December 25, 2005 10:52 PM
Do you know how often black people say "nigga". When a black person says nigga its like saying "dude"
When someone who isn't black says "nigga" it is not received well by black people.
Just because you hear someone use a word in a positive way doesn't mean you can use it in a derogatory way.
You were using goomba in a derogatory way.
"too much bridge and tunnel or should i just say too many italians" please just dig a bigger hole for yourself.
When you back peddled and said "to me goombas include all races and its a type of lifestyle"
If that were true you would not have said "when i grew up in queens we had jewish kids who thought they were goombas." you would have said jewish kids who were goombas.
The Sopranos and Growing up Gotti are TV shows, they are fictional or represent the lives of particular individuals not an entire national group.
When someone uses a word that is derogatory and particular to a race/ethnicity it becomes a racial slur.
Have respect for your fellow human beings.
Happy Holidays.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 26, 2005 4:32 AM
Back to the issues...
Hey RE broker- find me one of those great houses in BR...
I feel the same way about BR- it has the same feel that PS had when I moved in over 20 years ago- with the benefit of shopping already in place ( how many of you remember when Whole Wheat and Wild Berries was the only game in town?)
Posted by: Amy at December 26, 2005 8:00 AM
Come on, folks. Let's try to stay on topic please and try to express yourselves respectfully. It really ain't that hard to do.
Posted by: Brownstoner at December 26, 2005 9:14 AM
when i said jewish kids who thought they were goombas.....have you ever heard of gotti wannabes? by the way one of those kids owns a strip club in Queens now. i think he made it. i had enough of this already, it doesn't leave me time to disrespect my fellow humans.
Posted by: adam at December 26, 2005 9:35 AM
Back on topic--
Long: Sunset Park
Short: Bed-Stuy, Crown Heights, outer edges of Victorian Flatbush, Gowanus
Hold: Blue-chip nabes and their immediate fringes
Rationale: The next year will be slow, flat or down. The areas that have rocketed up most in the last year or two (esp. where yet-to-be-realized neighborhood improvements have already been built in to prices) will plateau or give back value as people sit out or opt for location, location. (But I don't think your Park Slopes, Cobble Hills, Carroll Gardens, etc. have much farther to go up.)
As for Sunset Park, I think it has good quality housing stock and a decent location, but has not yet experienced the hype that other nabes have gotten lately, so I think there's upside among value seekers.
Posted by: linusvanpelt at December 26, 2005 1:53 PM
Park Slope is 100% played out. If you bought there in 2004 or 2005 you will never see your money again.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 26, 2005 2:57 PM
It seems people only see their own neighborhood as an area that will improve.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 26, 2005 3:04 PM
adam, keep on digging your hole.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 26, 2005 3:06 PM
Oh, and I second the poster above who was long on Red Hook (where I do not live, btw). I'm not sure any nabe in Brooklyn will go up much, if at all, in 2006. But RH at least has concrete upcoming amenities improvements, as opposed to wishful thinking. (No, its transportation situation is not going to improve, but no neighborhood's transportation situation is going to change, so additions like IKEA at least increase its appeal relative to other nabes.)
Posted by: linusvanpelt at December 26, 2005 3:44 PM
Overall i think the market will not have the same increase as we have just experienced.
I think areas like the Gowanus, Atlantic Yards, and south of Park Slope have held Park Slope and Prospect Heights from reaching their full potential. There still is rooom for further growth.
New developmant and increased attention in the border areas will help improve the established areas.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 26, 2005 4:28 PM
That ultra PC anonymous poster is annoying, can we talk about the issue and not have the PC police, we are not politicians here.
Posted by: doldrums at December 26, 2005 4:46 PM
To anonymous PC police: you probably think you are very multi-culteral, yet know very few people who think differently from you.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 26, 2005 8:47 PM
There really isn’t a need to drag this out you could just make an effort not to do it again.
In reality neighborhoods are composed of the buildings and people who live in them. If you don’t like an area because of crime, aesthetics, distance or cost share your opinions.
When you don’t like an entire group of people because of your own prejudice keep your opinion to yourself and out of a real estate blog.
All of my friends are different races, ethnicities and religions. We find a way to respect each other and dispel our own prejudices.
All of my friends know how to spell multicultural.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 26, 2005 9:12 PM
long - nyc
short - outside of nyc
Posted by: james at December 26, 2005 10:03 PM
I'm long on real estate in general, and long on NYC and Brooklyn in particular.
Certainly, prices have climbed a lot in recent years. Certainly, there's a lot of risk in the market. The folks who predict that prices will decline could be correct.
I think that the odds of that happening, especially during the next year, are less than even, though. Why?
1) Real estate prices are driven by interest rates. As rates rise, as they have during the last year or so, prices tend to soften. There's good reason to think we're near the end of the uptick in rates, which is turning out to be much less dramatic than many economists feared. At the short end of the curve, the Fed is nearly finished tightening. Short term rates will level off this spring. At the long end of the curve, which is linked to mortgage rates, there's little reason to expect rates to go much higher. Inflation is well under control, thanks to the competitive pressures of a global economy. Energy prices are leveling off. As gas hit $3.50 a gallon this summer, the outlook appeared grim. But those days are behind us. Energy prices won't be cheap, but we're not in for energy crisis that will boost inflation and drive rates higher. The federal deficit is coming down, thanks to rising tax revenue linked to solid economic growth. And US rates are high enough to attact foreign investors who are suffeirng from super low rates in Europe and Japan. That means the Fed doesn't have to boost rates to make it more attractice for foreign investors to fund our national debt. So I think the interest rates, the key variable in housing, look pretty favorable.
2) While a group of White House advisors has suggested tax changes that would eliminate some of the hallowed deduction for mortgage interest, it's unlikely to become law this year or any other year. But some risk remains in the future.
3) At the local level, Brooklyn is in the midst of a once-in-a-century transformation that is trying attention at the national and even international level. The changes here are fundamental and go beyond the ups and downs of the housing cycle. That investment in downtown Brooklyn and along Fourth Avenue has barely started. As that occurs, we will continue to see the Manhattanization of Brooklyn real estate prices.
4) Compared to Manhattan, housing prices in Brooklyn are still pretty cheap. The housing stock is generally better, and the services and cultural life are great and getting better, too. So the arbitrage between Brooklyn and Manhattan will narrow. Brooklyn prices will rise.
5) While some buyers have been priced out of the brownstone Brooklyn market, people are still lined up two or three deep to buy real estate. We keep hearing from underpaid journalists that prices are unsustainable. But overpaid Wall Streeters, who make more money than the average ink stained wretch can imagine, keep proving them wrong. Most people simply don't understand how much cash is washing through the city. It will continue to prop up real estate prices.
6) Where to buy? I'd be long in prime neighborhoods that have the architecture, cache and services to attract the Wall Street folks, who will continue to drive prices higher in Park Slope, etc. Those prices will rise the fastest. But other sectors of the local economy are doing well, too. Web portals like AOL and Google and Yahoo are hiring left and right. That money will help fund home purchases in Carroll Gardens, Bed Stuy, Crown Heights, Lefferts, South South Slope, Greenwood, etc.
Overall, I think 2006 will be a good year with a surprise on the upside.
Posted by: Anon at December 27, 2005 12:10 AM
it's too crazy expensive to live in manhattan -- still. so long as manhattan is way too much money people are going to be looking for alternatives. much of the market moves in nyc can be attributed to the massive changes to the rent stabilizaiton laws. this has been going on for a while now. why live in an overpriced small manhattan apt when you can buy elsewhere? come on folks, who wants to live in a rental where the landlord is a jerk and doesn't fix things up and would rather you move out because under rent stabilization he can just jack up the rent when you go?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 12:25 AM
Oooh...you said "jerk". The pc police won't like that!
Posted by: anon at December 27, 2005 9:32 AM
i don't really expect to see any major declines anaywhere. this is new york we're talking about where housing is at a premium. if anything, i would expect to see levelling off or slight decreases in the high-end 'hoods. afterall, wasn't there a $20 million mansion for sale in brooklyn heights in 2005. can we really expect to see more of that especially since manhattan prices are coming down a bit.
i still see bed stuy and clinton hill as having the most potential. beautiful housing stock + good subway access = only one way to go, up!
Posted by: pietro at December 27, 2005 9:44 AM
All you people that are "long" Red Hook: Have you actually looked at the prices in Red Hook? Most buildings away from the projects are listed at over $1MM. These listing prices are already building in the anticipated gentrification of the neighborhood. Red Hook is already priced at 2008 prices. Please inform your comments with some research and a little bit of reality.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 9:51 AM
The only issue that I have with some of the posts above is that people are talking about residential real estate (usually owner occupied) as if it is a stock/bond portfolio. If you are not yet in the market (i.e. if you do not own any property in NYC/Brooklyn) then it may be a time for some trepidation before taking that first leap. If you do own, like most people you will likely be in this for the long haul - so the fluctuations of the next 3-5 years do to rising interest rates etc. should not be overly concerning.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 9:58 AM
I'll sign up with the short it all crowd. I don't think the yield curve can stay this flat for much longer and the Fed is apparantly working on mopping up the excess currency that it created in the last few years. Eventually we'll have a 70-150bps pop. I'll bet in 2006. The net trend will be down. Also, a lot of the new construction will finally come on line at the end of the year and that will have an impact. The creation of new housing in NYC is so tightly limited that this will be significant.
But, you can still make a long/short portfolio and be hedged against an overall market move. So I say slightly outer nabes like Prospect Heights and Windsor Terrace will outperform and people looking for a nice place to live with space realize that these can be about the same commute or better than York Ave and give you space for a second or third kid.
Posted by: JoshK at December 27, 2005 10:08 AM
Just my personal feel for things: Will hold value but too expensive to go up much more: Park Slope, Carroll Gardens, Dumbo, Cobble Hill, Brooklyn Heights. Long: Midwood, Kensington, 4th and 5th Avenue in the Slope, Sunset Park, Bay Ridge. Short: Red Hook (unless transportation improves in some substantial way!), low-quality buildings in Williamsburg. Gowanus will probably become more residential, but will never be Dumbo--too many environmental issues. Manhattan (except for very high end) will soften 10-20 percent. And I don't have any reason to think I am an expert!!!
Posted by: Caledonia at December 27, 2005 11:15 AM
If you look at the data displayed in Property Shark maps you will see that the neighborhoods west of flatbush ave / flatbush ext. have a high frequency of forclosure.
People maybe spending more than they ever have in these areas (BedStuy, ProspectLefferts, etc...) but they are forclosing on their mortgages. This is not a good sign. A high rate of forclosure indicates that the market in that area is unstable at those high prices.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 11:55 AM
Re: Red Hook -- I agree that it has already priced in the future gentification of the neighborhood. But so have Bed Stuy, Crown Heights, and PLG, e.g. Compared with those neighborhoods, Red Hook actually has major near-term amenities improvements in the pipeline. Whether or not IKEA and Fairway appeal much to you, they are real developments that will mean the neighborhood soon will actually have something something it didn't. Whereas the other fringe neighborhoods that have skyrocketed have done so only in the hope that -- someday, cross your fingers, if enough money moves in -- similar development will come.
None of this is saying one neighborhood is "better" than another, nor is it a comparison of their housing stock, etc. But considering that the infrastructure differences among these nabes are a constant -- the subway lines, houses, etc. are the same ones that have been there for decades -- the difference is whether the coming improvements in amenities are actual or wishful.
But what do I know? I've never been much of a gambler on the location of my own home. I'm just playing the game here.
Posted by: linusvanpelt at December 27, 2005 12:13 PM
If poor neighborhoods gentrify where do all of the poor people go?
When poor renters in a neighborhood see that their rents are rising how do they view gentrifiers?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 1:11 PM
They move to another neighborhood that they can afford, just as the gentrifiers moved to the poor neighborhood because they were priced out of where they would otherwise buy. The owners of the houses in the poor neighborhoods end up doing well. The renters are, as always, subject to changes in the area. Unfortunately, that is the lot of renters.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 1:19 PM
I am the bullish "anon" who posted five points above.
To JoshK, yah, I agree new construction is going to be an issue and I wouldn't be surprised if new condos create a glut. (I won't be surprised if they take off like a rocket, either. Really depends on how much demand there is. Who knows?) But the market for apartments and the market for brownstones won't necessarily go off the cliff together. During the last bust, homes in NYC were more resilient than apartments. But if my bullish scenario blows up in my face, that could be one reason.
But what's your case for a big change in yield curve? Seems the Fed is nearly finished and it hasn't happened yet. You may well be right, but what will cause it?
i am changing my handle to anon-o-man to make this easier.
Posted by: anon-o-man at December 27, 2005 1:20 PM
The BEST deal in Brooklyn is Sunset Park, hands down.
Besides interest rates, the greatest influence on NY Real Estate is affordability. The market will not go down but will certainly slow, especially by the second half of 2006. People are saying enough is enough on the prices of places like Park Slope. You'll see more and more thirty somethings who can't afford Park Slope that will move elsewhere. Fort Greene, Prospect Heights and Clintion Hill have already become too expensive. The best deal in the borugh is Sunset Park. The same house in Park Slope that costs at least $1.5 million is $750K to $850K in Sunset Park. It is an established neighborhood with real houses (brownstomes and limestones, as well as brick buildings), not like the lower quality frame houses of Greenwood Heights. It has its own park and is situated right by the BQE for easy access in and out of Brooklyn. The trip into Manhattan is very reasonable - for example, it's one stop on the R train from 45th Street and then 5 stops on the D to midtown. It is a MUCH faster commute than the trip to midtown on the F train from Park Slope. While Sunset Park lacks the hip spots at this point, you can easily takle a quick trip to the Slope or Bay Ridge for anything you can't find in SP. As more people who have been priced out of places like Park Slope see the values in Sunset park, the hip spots will grow and the neighborhood will change for the better. It seems a better deal to pay $250 p/sf and wait for (and help) the neighborhood to grow as opposed to paying $500K and up p/sf in an overpriced place like Park Slope.
The days of buying to flip are over. You must buy to live - and the best value is Sunset park.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 2:22 PM
Anon-o-man,
The reality is that the FOMC is pretty opaque. They announce the target rate, but we don't know what they are doing on the desk. Assuming they don't want to see a flat curve, they will continue to destroy money at the desk by reducing their longer term holdings. Eventually the long end has to rise. 40bps doesn't seem like a fair return for 25 years of risk.
Posted by: JoshK at December 27, 2005 2:32 PM
Bed Stuy, PLG, and Crown Heights are all cheaper than Red Hook. You must not have a very good idea of actual prices in Red hook.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 2:53 PM
Are people who want modern condos and people who want brownstoners really in the same market? The aesthetics are so different - and you can get a modern apt anywhere in the US, but brownstones are so limited in supply and can't be built new.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 3:15 PM
Red Hook Sucks!!
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 3:17 PM
Anon 3:15. It's one interconnected market. If boring new condos were $1/sq feet, many people who would want brownstones would pass them up - even though they may really like Brownstones better. The question is "at what price?".
Posted by: JoshK at December 27, 2005 3:18 PM
While it is truly fascinating to learn what micro-neighborhood you live in, I believe the original point of this discussion is to post opinions on which neighborhoods you believe will increase or decrease in value in 2006. Or did I miss something?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 3:18 PM
JoshK, assuming for the moment your point about long term rates rising is correct, the question is when? And how far and how fast? It's still possible that the mortgage market can absorb higher rates without sending housing prices into a tailspin, although at some point I agree a crash would be triggered. What would a reasonable return on a 254-year investment be, and is that compatible with a stable housing market? I'm certainly not arguing that the housing market is a safe bet. I'm bullish, but I think the odds of a serious decline in 2006 are still in the 20 or 30 percent range, for all the reasons you cited and then some.
As for the market, sure it's connected, but I don't think that means the prices for apartments and houses go up and down in lockstep. At least they didn't seem to move that way back in the early 90s, when apartment prices tanked and house prices seemed to hold their own.
Posted by: anon-o-man at December 27, 2005 3:41 PM
Attached dwellings can be built again on vacant land. It is possible to build a brownstone now.
Some condo developments can be more appealing than an attached dwelling.
Freestanding homes will always be increasing rare.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 3:42 PM
whoops. i meant a 25-year investment. i can't imagine what the yield on a 254-year note would look like.
Posted by: anon-o-man at December 27, 2005 3:43 PM
Realistic view of Sunset Park/Greenwood Strip
The rowhouses in Sunset/Greenwood are almost always significantly smaller than BH, PS, CG, CH, FG.
The BQE expressway area, GW Cemetary area will always limit the values in Sunset Park.
There is a disproportian number of tenants over owners in Sunset Park. Will the gentry be welcome?
Have the drug dealing gangs left Sunset Park?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 3:51 PM
I think JoshK has earned the "Master of the Obvious" designation of the week for this post.
"It's one interconnected market. If boring new condos were $1/sq feet, many people who would want brownstones would pass them up - even though they may really like Brownstones better. The question is "at what price?"."
Posted by: JoshK at December 27, 2005 03:18 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 3:52 PM
Wow -- this is quite an informed group of people! These posters must be quite wealthy considering all the wise investments they must have made!
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 3:58 PM
anon-o-man,
I agree with you that it is not 100% lock-step. There is in all of this a trendline and we could say that each sub-market (dwelling type, nabe) has a certain "beta" and will exhibit drift in addition to that.
As far as rates, I wouldn't anticipate a crash for the simple reason that people don't seem to understand that an unrealized loss is the same as a realized loss. That leads people to hold on for a long time until they are forced to sell; that in turn should dampen any downturn.
But on the other hand, the price movements only need to happen on a marginal basis. This is a relatively thin market to begin with. If there are a few more sellers than buyers, we could see more of a slide than most people expect.
I have a few friends who bought places a few years back and are now 20-50% in the money and are trying to sell. the problem is that they are not getting offers - and to move to something bigger requires getting what they consider the market price. At some point, they may decide to lock in the 40% gain, even if they hoped for a 50% gain. And then they'll look to Prospect Heights to get a giant place or NJ along the water. I know, it's just one senario.
As far as the 25 yr (all bets off for the 254), I can't get it on my Bloomberg - I forgot how, but I think that 2% over inflation is normal, which would put us at about 6%, well above where we are now. That would also move mortgages up to about 7%.
Posted by: JoshK at December 27, 2005 4:02 PM
Sunset Park is bracing for future development that is tied into the new down-zoning of the SSlope and the up-zoning of 4th Ave. Sunset Park will certainly be the recipient of the affordable housing bonus given to the 4th Ave corridor. S.P. is already started it's own down-zoning proposal in fear of what it sees as the next hunting ground for 5+ story new condos, but that is at least 2 years off before it gets passed. Prospect Height specifically St. Marks Avenue between Underhill and Washington will be the site of much development in the next year (3 bedroom luxe condos). They already have two new townhouses on the block made up of mostly single story garages. Prices will always be high for single family homes as that attracts the least creative real estate speculator as NYC is concerned. I would look for streets with lots of crappy one and two story commercial garages/auto shops/ parking lots (like 15th Street between 7th and 8th Avenues in SSlope was two years ago) that boarder on any hot neighborhood. Don't forget to plant your tulip bulbs before the ground freezes solid so that in the Spring you will be rewarded with splendid color.
Posted by: Chauncey Gardiner at December 27, 2005 5:05 PM
If your friends are not getting offers than how are you presupposing they are 20-50% 'in the money'? An real appraisor does not look at a couple of sales and claim that is the new market price...its the 'trend' that is important.
And no evidence YET that price trends are down...a few anecdotal stories on price cuts on properties that were 'pushing the envelope' doesn't cut it.
People that are looking for significant price deflation cite downturn of 89-95. Those prices did not occur by itself - other economic factors went along with that (both on national and local levels).
Without other co-factors I would not predict real downturn in prices but definitely some of the more outrageous pricing will decline.
If co-factors occur on the economic front there will be signigicant price reduction.
Gowanus - is hardly a neigborhood separate 'hood - just the less desirable/central/residential blocks of Park Slope and Carroll Gardens and prices will go up (or down) with those neighborhoods.
Red Hook has so little owner occupied housing hardly worth mentioning except that future will bring in lux condos -which is very differect category than current residences.
Crown Hts/BedStuy should continue to attract buyers willing to renovate old house with potential/detail as fewer remain to be redone in Clinton Hill/Prospect Hts.
I would think that condo appreciation is over/some decline in per sq ft prices. Townhouses will maintain/solidify recent prices appreciation.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 5:19 PM
How is an unrealized loss the same as a realized loss?
If you had bought in 1990 and sold in 1995, you realized a loss.
If you had held on and sold in 2005 you would have turned an unrealized loss into a realized gain.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 5:48 PM
"If your friends are not getting offers than how are you presupposing they are 20-50% 'in the money'? "
Just their estimates based on what they thought that they would get. Nothing scientific here.
"How is an unrealized loss the same as a realized loss?"
Say you buy a 2br condo for 1m and then it goes down to 250k. You then wait 10yrs and sell it for 1m. The day it went down to 250K, you were out the 750k.
For example, you could have then sold for 250K and then bot a 3br for 300k.
OK, it's still possible that your unit is the only one that plunged. You still should look at it as what are your assets worth on a given day and then ask yourself. "Assuming I just had everything in cash, where should I invest it?"
Posted by: JoshK at December 27, 2005 6:09 PM
JoshK, you make a good point about long-term rates heading higher. But by your estimatation, that would push mortgage rates to 7, which is still a pretty good rate for most buyers. and at the uppper end of the brownstone market, where people are laying out millions (in cash!) to buy homes, what does it even matter?
Posted by: anon-o-man at December 27, 2005 6:55 PM
My spouse and I are looking to buy our first home. We have lived in Park Slope for 7+ years and love the area but are concerned that we could get more space and make a smarter purchase elsewhere in Brooklyn. We love the Victorian Flatbush area--but can real value still be found there or is it already too played out? Would it be stupid to buy a two or three bedroom co-op in Park Slope now? We are sick of renting and waiting for the market to come down, we know we like the area...thoughts?
Posted by: Lucas at December 27, 2005 7:20 PM
Actually, if prices just remain flat (aither at or slightly below 0% gain annually) you are experiencing an unrealized or paper loss because inflation will start to eat away at your "gains".
The market is getting much much softer, with more inventory and a longer sales cycle. This will, along with higher interest rates and an affordability index that is way out of wack, engender a housing market that is heading for the tankaroo.
Magic's johnson will do fine with the Billyburg building.
Ratner will give Marty Arbuckle some season tix (now that election season is over) to curry favor.
Now that some Florida cemetaries are considering converting their greens to more functional (and profitable) plots, maybe Greenwood cemetary could do the opposite. FORE!
As for gentrification in some sh*thole nabes,...is it just the blight or are some folks just attracted to the pioneer lifestyle. Sunset Park is great if you speak spanish or chinese.
Red Hook still sucks (you won't get any new service their, but you will get the business), and the Ikea sh*tstorm (read: traffic) hasn't even begun to rear its head yet.
Oh, and to all of the folks doing reno on the sly (other than having a dumpster out in front of your home), you better watch out!! First, the Sanitation dept is looking for extra revenue and the DoB is hiring more inspectors..."well lookie here, a dumpster. Let's see if there's a permit in the window for all of the reno (follow the dust trail to the doorstep) happening here. Hmmm, let me just leave this little note (also known as a summons) for ya."
City Gov't can be just as big a bitch as W. spying on who you're talking to...like all of those leftie blogs.
Posted by: Bill O'Really? at December 27, 2005 7:33 PM
There still are deals in the coop market in Park Slope. Kensington (Ocean Parkway area) seems to have the best deals for coops.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 7:42 PM
", that would push mortgage rates to 7, which is still a pretty good rate for most buyers."
True, it's not like that would end the market. But, since it's such a thin market, it would have to have *SOME* effect. And, if it's enough to move the market down a few pts, then will that change the psychology? If people see a confirmed downturn, then that may have the ability to snowball.
Posted by: JoshK at December 27, 2005 8:00 PM
Lucas are you drunk?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 9:09 PM
Anonymous at 9:09 - you might be thinking of Bill O'Really rather than Lucas. The name comes below the post.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 9:22 PM
lucas, my personal 2 cents. Do not make this call on the basis of which neighborhood is the "smart" purchase. Though it's easy to think otherwise from reading threads like these, you are not buying a stock. you're buying a home. Say you could make a pile of money by buying in a neighborhood you hated and selling in 5 years. would it be worth the 5 years of misery?
you will get more space in flatbush, and it's your personal decision whether the tradeoffs are worth it to you. but do not buy on the basis of which is the better-priced nabe. both have shot up in price in the past few years. buy where you think you'll be happiest living.
it sounds from your post like you've been sitting on cash waiting for prices to come down -- watching your dollars lose purchasing power all the time. that's a perfect example of why homebuyers should not try to time the market. if you're planning on staying for the long-term, all this stockpicking BS should not matter to you. if you're not, you probably should not buy. otherwise, go with your gut and buy the place you like best.
Posted by: linusvanpelt at December 27, 2005 9:33 PM
I own limestone townhouses in Sunset Park and Lefferts Manor. Both areas have fine housing stock combined with good transportation and mediocre services. PLG is probably 10 minutes closer to Manhattan by subway. Both have a few great blocks, many ok blocks, and many not-so-hot blocks. Price-wise SP seems to have more room to grow as it is still lower than PLG for the average house. PLG, especially LM has much nicer houses at the high end. SP's best houses are just great examples of its good houses, there is a lot (too much) uniformity. This will keep SP's prices in a tight range.
I believe SP will stay flat or rise a few percent next year and PLG will will stay flat or fall a few percent. Nothing too exciting.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 9:39 PM
I can't help myself, i have to ask PC police a question. If i'm such an italian racist how come i chose to buy a house where my neighbors on both sides are guess what? italian, from Italy no less. its good to know "all your friends are different races,ethnicities and religions......hello you live in new york. I grew up as the only jewish kid on a true nyc block in the Bronx not in Ohio like you probably did. the truth is your condescending tone makes me want to puke. right we chose where we live because crime , asthetics, distance and cost(and of course living nowhere near you). you left out race however. what do you suppose do all the posters who say fringe neighborhood mean when they talk of bed stuy and crown height etc. do you think those fringe people are well to do white folk? You are the type of person who moves in when a neighborhood gentrifies but the first to "white flight" if the neighborhood changes. Your the poster boy/girl for what the right wing call liberals. Your the person they use when they talk about liberals are stealing christmas. your the "cultural elitist " and people like myself and others on the left suffer for it every day. Now i had enough. .
Posted by: adam at December 27, 2005 10:22 PM
to all other brownstoners i apologize for continuing this dialog and i promise not to post on this subject anymore.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 10:25 PM
Adam, you are proving yourself to be as immature as you are prejudice. You are continually dragging out an issue that could easily be avoided if you cease to stereotype people in this forum.
Since you have decided that I am from Ohio and ready to abandon my neighborhood at the sight of a non white people you couldn't be more prejudice.
I was born in Brooklyn and have lived here my whole life. I love the diversity that Brooklyn has because of the cultural exposure. I would never leave my neighborhood of Park Slope because of a change in diversity. I add to the diversity. I am mixed race.
As for your ridiculous assertion that there are fringe people, that is ludicrous. There are no fringe people there are only fringe areas. Fringe means on the edge of a neighborhood or between two neighborhoods.
The area between Clinton Hill and BedStuy is a fringe area because there isn't a clear boundary like a river or a park. The area between Crown Heights and Prospect Heights is a fringe area because there isn't a clear consensus where one ends and the other begins.
If someone choose to live in a predominantly black, white, hispanic or asian area it is their choice. These areas tend to be more affordable than the areas that are mixed/diverse. Mixed/diverse areas tend to more income/wealth based.
Unfortunately in our country wealth has not been race-blind. As the times have changed and will change wealth and income will be race-blind. Allowing wealthy area to remain diverse and not just all white.
Stop labeling people and stereotyping them.
You were the one who was being a cultural elitist when you dismissed the hardworking people of Bay Ridge as being unworthy of your presence.
Stop calling me the PC police. And stop calling Italian people goombas and black people fringe people. We are not in 3rd Grade.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 27, 2005 11:07 PM
So now I'm a fringe person. Adam please come by and visit fringe.
Posted by: Stuyscycle at December 27, 2005 11:38 PM
is the area between carroll gardens and cobble hill a fringe area because there isn't a clear consensus where one starts and begins?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 12:50 AM
is the area between windsor terrace and park slope fringe because no river divides it?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 12:51 AM
long: park slope, brooklyn heights, dumbo, "downtown" in general, carroll grdns, boerum hill
short: williamsburg, greenpoint, prospect heights, bed stuy
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:11 AM
Love the associated in clinton hills.. the fine food improvements are a nice start, would love to see specialty shops though.
My bf lives in dumbo and a new gourmet market named "foragers" just opened... really nice store. Can't wait for the empire stores to be completed down there too.
Long: established brownstone nabes (brooklyn heights, park slope, fort greene/clinton hills), waterfront nabes (dumbo, red hook, williamsburg, etc)
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:30 AM
Hey Chauncy can you tell me more about what you know about these condos being built on St. Marks Ave?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 3:18 AM
I agree that Sunset Park is in for some gentrification. It had good housing stock, some gorgeous blocks, a park on a hilltop, decent public transportation, and pretty low crime rates. It may take time, but I think that the area will become more upscale eventually.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 8:07 AM
Adam, shut up and go away.
Posted by: Not PC police at December 28, 2005 8:49 AM
When did crime rates in Sunset Park become pretty low? Is this a recent thing?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 10:31 AM
Gentrification tends to take place in underutilized neighborhoods that have an existing population that is relatively stagnant or declining. An abundance of vacant or partially occupied buildings is usually a symbol of this condition. With its burgeoning immigrant population (Mexicans, Central Americans and Chinese), Sunset Park will not follow the gentrification patterns witnessed in other neighborhoods. The neighborhood is already and will continue to be "gentrified" with these new populations as the have been replacing the declining Puerto Rican population for years. Don’t look for a trendy coffee shop or an ironic T-Shirt boutique in Sunset Park anytime soon as 5th avenue is already chock full on healthy, vibrant business that serve the community
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 11:18 AM
Although, Adam is throwing a little hissy fit, not everything he is saying is absurd. There are alot of pc nimbys in Brooklyn these days...especially in the Slope. And I'm sure that most of them did not grow up in Brooklyn, where we've always spoken in colorful terms. Let's all take a look in the mirror instead of dismissing Adam.
Posted by: anon at December 28, 2005 11:26 AM
Instead of viewing the multitude of what you call pc nimbys that are found "especially" in Park Slope see them for what they are tolerant, accepting, and respectful, with an appreciation of culture other than their own.
Park Slope is a special place where interracial families, gay couples, black, white, asian and hispanic can all live together without feeling unwanted. I'm not claiming that Park Slope is a perfect place but don’t confused acceptance and tolerance for PC nimby.
If Adam's freedom to use racial slurs without recourse was taken away from him well to bad. How would he feel if someone made a comment about a jewish neighborhood and dismissed it because of stereotypical assumption about its resident?
The character Fran on The Nanny is the stereotypical airhead goldigging, social climbing, with plastic covered sofas jewish family wanting to be WASP. Just because it’s on TV does not mean everyone is like that. It’s a stereotype on TV.
No one on Brownstoner has dismissed a jewish neighborhood as having too many jewdiggers. Why? Are they being too PC Nimby. I guess its only pc nimby when it’s about a group other than your own.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 12:14 PM
I grew up in Ohio. What's your problem with Ohio? Did you know there are diverse areas of Ohio too?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:06 PM
Park Slope is not the racial oasis that you paint it to be. In reality, it's segregrated, with 4th and 5th Avenues being more working-class and Latino and the areas around 7th and 8th being white and well-to-do. As 5th Avenue continues to gentrify, this diversity will shrink even more.
I'd love to have the city announce the building of a public housing project on 7th Avenue and 3rd Street - then you'd see how tolerant Park Slope residents are of people from different backgrounds.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:12 PM
Clinton Hill!
Think about the fulton street development to come and then will see...
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:16 PM
I guess Adam thinks Ohio is one big green pasture with white people frolicking merrily.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:17 PM
I'd like to see any neighborhood in NYC welcome a housing project with open arms.
If a latino was well-to-do they would not want to live next to a project either. If the city suggested building projects in Sunset Park then the latinos would complain as well.
No homeowner in their right mind would want to see a decrease in their property values. The construction of a project would spark a fear of declining value.
Stop projecting racism on White people. Racism is no a problem only white people have. Racist come in all colors.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:23 PM
The city should turn the warehouses near Costco into low to no income Housing Projects.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:31 PM
As a black person I have never felt comfortable in hispanic areas like Bushwick and Sunset.
Posted by: Tyler at December 28, 2005 1:34 PM
In response to Tyler's comments about being black in Sunset Park; I think people would assume that you’re Puerto Rican or Dominican. Once folks find out that your not Latino, I still don't think you'll run into problems. At least I haven't.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:43 PM
I have run into problems in Sunset and that why I bought in BedStuy.
I am a dark skin black male going to open houses in Sunset because I work at the Prison over there. They would look at me and whisper about this moreno, who does he think he is, he thinks he can buy a house, ah please. I realized I was wasting my time there. I bought in BedStuy because I am feel comfortable not standing out amongst the crowd. I am sure not everyone is prejudice against Blacks in Sunset but they weren't rolling out a red carpet.
Posted by: Tyler at December 28, 2005 1:51 PM
Does anyone know the story behind the vacant/dilapidated building on the north-east corner of 7th Avenue and Second Street in Park Slope, the building behind Met Foods?
Posted by: anonymous at December 28, 2005 1:52 PM
I think Ratner owns the corner buindling on 7th Ave and 2nd St.
Posted by: BillyBob at December 28, 2005 2:02 PM
ahhahhahha this is hilarious!
to the hyper-senstitive, knee-jerking PC police,
remember IROCs?? these labels which you find offensive are part of life here in nyc. get over it. you must be a "transplant". i am interested in hearing how you and your friends dispel stereotypes. i prefer dwelling on them and break it down by playing them on repeat mode.
And for those, I think you know who you are--
Long: BR, dictionaries, Ditmas Pk., Bao Noodles
Posted by: equal opportunity hater at December 28, 2005 2:16 PM
To the dumbass hater. Violence was also part of the culture here.
Please call these slurs to peoples faces and wait about two seconds before they crack you in the face.
My guess is that you are a know-it-all from queens.
Would you actually call a stranger one of these slurs too their face? No pencil dick.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 2:31 PM
Off topic: I have an idea. How about everybody stops attacking people based on unproven hypothetical crap that you don't know? ("I bet you're from _____." "I bet you would never _____." "I bet all your friends are _____.""I bet you'd do _____ if ______ happened in your own neighborhood.") It's a stupid 4th-grade debate tactic.
On topic: good point abput Sunset Park and existing businesses. But does that hurt property values? Maybe it's a plus. I've only visited Sunset Park, but I'd rather eat out or buy groceries there than in Bay Ridge.
Posted by: linusvanpelt at December 28, 2005 2:40 PM
To the equal opportunity hater,
What race/ethnicty/religion are you? Why don't you encourage people to insult you. Equal means you want people to dis you. You must welcome it.
Call a black guy a nigga. He will kick you ass.
Call a jewish guy a jewdigger. He will kick you in your nuts.
Call an Italian a goomba or a guido. He will beat the shit out of you with the bat he has in his car.
Call a latino a spic. He will stab you in your throat.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 2:43 PM
Why would you rather buy groceries and eat out in Sunset over Bay Ridge?
Posted by: Tyler at December 28, 2005 2:45 PM
nailed the point right there...
damn those side-walk hogging strollers
"Park Slope is not the racial oasis that you paint it to be. In reality, it's segregrated, with 4th and 5th Avenues being more working-class and Latino and the areas around 7th and 8th being white and well-to-do. As 5th Avenue continues to gentrify, this diversity will shrink even more.
I'd love to have the city announce the building of a public housing project on 7th Avenue and 3rd Street - then you'd see how tolerant Park Slope residents are of people from different backgrounds.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 01:12 PM"
Posted by: equal opportunity hater at December 28, 2005 2:47 PM
Why don't you take your fogged glasses off. So you would welcome a project build across the street from you if you owned a house?
Would Clinton Hill, StuyHeights, Crown Heights, Sunset Park welcome another project?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 2:54 PM
Gentrified neighborhoods will continue to rise slowly while less expensive areas with good transportation to Manhattan will rise more quickly. This should continue until values have leveled out. With the overall reduction in crime across Brooklyn, there is no longer a reason for safety to play such a big role in real estate prices.
I live in Boerum Hill which had startlying and rapid rise from 97-04 and seems to have leveled off (except for that house with those celebrities in it on Dean and Hoyt). Clinton Hill is just finishing its rapidd rise and now Bed Stuy, Bushwick and Victorian Flatbush are popping.
Coop prices will always be more volatile than houses because of the large fixed underlying mortgages at the co-op itself. House prices and coop prices can't really be compared except maybe in the direction they can be expected to move.
Posted by: BH & vicinity at December 28, 2005 2:56 PM
There isn't an endless supply of people with a million dollar budgets.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 2:59 PM
Tyler: Just personal taste. Sunset Park has excellent, cheap Chinese, Vietnamese, Mexican, etc. restaurants. Bay Ridge has decent restaurants, but in my experience, they're just passable versions of cuisines or dining experiences I could get better elsewhere in Brooklyn. Likewise groceries: amenities in Bay Ridge are fine but not extraordinary, whereas in SP you at least have access to stuff like Hong Kong (Hong Keung? I forget) supermarket.
Feel free to jump on this. I just figure if I feel this way there are others who would feel the same, and they would look more favorably on SP. Then again I don't live there, or BR.
equal-opp hater: I've lived in Park Slope for more than a decade. I walk or run around the neighborhood and Prospect Park every day. I have far more often had my way blocked by people without children, having conversations and obliviously walking 2 or 3 abreast, than by strollers. Very often people who see me and yet refuse to budge so that anyone has room to pass their group on the sidewalk.
It's a pet peeve of mine. Everybody bashes stroller pushers, but I think self-centered childless people just eventually become self-centered people with babies.
Posted by: linusvanpelt at December 28, 2005 3:03 PM
You are talking about Sunset Heights. Sunset Heights is the top of the hill in between Sunset Park and Boro Park. Sunset Park does not have great supermarkets, but hey there are few in brooklyn. If your looking for cheap eats yet Sunset Park has them.
Posted by: Tyler at December 28, 2005 3:08 PM
5th Avenue in Sunset Park is 2 miles of 99cent stores one after another.
I work there but head to Pacific/Atlantic area for shopping and then go to home to BedStuy
Posted by: Tyler at December 28, 2005 3:13 PM
I am a real estate appraiser in Manhattan. I don't do Brooklyn so I don't know the market that well. However, I live in Brooklyn and know the market on a limited basis from a personal perspective.
The market in Manhattan is slowing and the main reason is affordability. More and more people cannot afford these prices and are looking to buy in alternative neighborhoods. Go to Harlem, Washington Heights, etc. and you'll see what I mean. These areas are booming with renovations as are many neighborhoods in Brooklyn. I do not believe the market will crash, however it will (and is) slowing down. Again, the reason is that less and less people can afford these prices. You'll see fewer young, professional families buying in places like Park Slope as they simply cannot afford the area. That said, the fringe nabes in Brooklyn will continue to prosper as long as they are near reasonable transportation to Manhattan. In my opinion, the future is bright for townhouses in PLG, Crown Heights and Sunset Park.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 3:16 PM
Tyler: You learn something new every day. I've never heard the name sunset heights -- always heard it called sunset park all the way out to where the Chinatown section is.
Posted by: linusvanpelt at December 28, 2005 3:21 PM
Appraiser,
there have always been young professional who could not afford Park Slope/Brooklyn Heights and they have always lived in PLG, Crown Heights and Sunset Park. Those neighborhoods have always been less expensive. There isn't a new trend.
Bed Stuy has experience a trend over the pass few years because there was an abundance of vacant buildings. Park Slope was in a similar position 20 years ago. It is a long process not a quiet one.
Upper West Side and other Manhattan neighborhoods will increase over the long run and direct people into Park Slope/Brooklyn Heights/Cobble Hill.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 3:25 PM
The Chinatown section is Sunset Heights. Its a similar relationship that BedStuy and StuyHeights have except Sunset Heights is bigger.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 3:28 PM
Anon at 3:25 - I agree that the trend has always been there for young professional types to live in alternative nabes. My point is that the trend is growing due to the high prices of other places like the slope, heights etc. NYC is seeing an unprecedented increase in property values causing the attraction of alternative neighborhoods to increase. You are and will see more people move to these neighborhaoods as they feel it is their best bet - more than ever. I'm basing this largely on what I see on a daily basis while at work.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 3:34 PM
There's also a whole tier of "alternative" neighborhoods that have themselves become exorbitant. Once if you couldn't afford Park Slope you moved to Prospect Heights; now that's so expensive you move on to Crown Heights.
Posted by: linusvanpelt at December 28, 2005 3:43 PM
Property values have rose across the board. A house that is 2 million in Park Slope is 8 million in Greenwich Village. There will still be a influx of people in Park Slope they will just be wealthier than trhe previous residents. The new resident of SP, CH, BD have higher incomes than the previous residents.
500K doen't buy a great house in Brooklyn anymore.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 3:54 PM
I'm the one who threw out the "pc nimby" comment. I'm not the devil and in fact, I do consider myself pretty pc. Anon 12:14, thank you for informing me all about the Slope. You may be thinking of Park Slope circa 1960's-1990's, but if you look around, it's no longer that diverse. I watched as it changed during the mid 80's until a couple of years ago, when I no longer wanted to live in a privileged white community. A few years back, some people from the neighborhood were fighting a Meth clinic. I didn't join in the fight because, although my property price would go down, I didn't see why another neighborhood should get stuck with it either. This is when I started using the term nimbys for some Slopers. Lots of my friends from the Slope take up issues that seem pc, but at the end of the day, it's all just talk. Sort of hypocritical. I kind of get the same feeling with this blog.
I'm sure nobody means to insult Ohio-ins specifically, but we (NYers) grew up in a diverse community and maybe we kibbitz (look it up) with folks from different backgrounds because we're comfortable doing so. Because we're one big happy melting pot family!! So, I think the issue here is that we don't like being told how to act by non natives. And especially in that school teacher tone! I'm not justifying the use of racial slurs (although, in this case I don't think "Goomba" applies only to Italians), but my point is that we all (including myself) need to look in the mirror every now and then before judging others. You know..."Let he who is without sin..."
And please refrain from commenting on my spelling and grammar.
Posted by: Jew in the Stuy at December 28, 2005 3:59 PM
Anon at 11:18 a.m.,
You wrote:
"Gentrification tends to take place in underutilized neighborhoods that have an existing population that is relatively stagnant or declining. An abundance of vacant or partially occupied buildings is usually a symbol of this condition."
I've been in Clinton Hill (Grand between Greene and Gates) since 1989, when it was mostly a working-class black neighborhood. Very few vacant or partially occupied buildings, no declining population. (There are other parts of Clinton Hill that match your description much better.) What happened here since 1998 or so is that black families renting 2-bedroom apartments for $600 a month have been replaced by couples of every race who pay $2000. To me that's gentrification.
Not that I blame the landlords for not turning away such a huge amount of money, nor long-time owners funding their retirement by selling brownstones for a million plus that previously sold for less than 200k. But the change has been on the backs of working black families.
Posted by: Roberta at December 28, 2005 4:03 PM
Clinton Hill with a C train on Fulton street and plenty of stores to be changed .......I think is going to be interesting.
What you think it will happen on that strech between Vanderbilt and Grand in the next few year?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 4:04 PM
If every area becomes more expensive where do renters go who cannot afford the high rents.
Fort Greene to Clinton Hill into Bed Stuy.
But then where? Philadelphia? East New York?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 4:07 PM
Whats with people in BedStuy saying they live in Clinton Hills?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 4:09 PM
What's with people calling Clinton Hill Clinton Hills?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 4:31 PM
People of the past, fear not! New York will continue to need a certain number of low-income renters for food delivery, cleaning, child care, working at nonprofit organizations and so forth. By 2009, the requisite number will have been relocated to "homelands" in underutilized areas of the outer boroughs, where they will able to enter and leave to their jobs by showing ID at checkpoints. Accommodations will be a little snug, but the price will be right! The excess will be free to pursue other opportunities elsewhere in the country, or, language abilities permitting, in Latin America. Everything will be fine, you'll see.
Posted by: guy from the future at December 28, 2005 4:56 PM
"Park Slope is a special place where interracial families, gay couples, black, white, asian and hispanic can all live together without feeling unwanted."
I'm sorry all I can do is laugh out loud at this and I lived in Park Slope for 7 years.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 28, 2005 5:08 PM
Sunset Parks off the chain. All youll people are just jealous.
Posted by: Suave at December 28, 2005 5:46 PM
Ditmas Park is about to come into its own. I walked around there last weekend. Incredible homes and spectacular values relative to Park Slope and other areas. Good schools as well. Just watch...Ditmas is going to take off like a rocket.
Posted by: Steve at December 28, 2005 11:20 PM
An earlier poster mentioned that he was black and had experienced problems being taken seriously as a potential buyer in Sunset Park. If that guy reads this posting, I hope you don't let anybody stop you from investing anywhere you want.
I'm white, and there's no question if I were black I'd feel more comfortable investing in black dominated areas. But the truth is, if you don't have millions to invest, in the NYC metro area, black and mostly hispanic dominated areas are really the only affordable places left.
Did anybody see the latest Massey Knakal mailing? It features a large photo of one of the rich dudes who own the firm with his arm over the shoulder of a black agent. I only mention this because it's interesting how race plays such a large part in the NYC real estate market. It reminded me of a photo from a fancy boarding school advertisement. Everyone knows there are only a few minorities at the school, but the brochure makes it look like a New York City subway.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 1:55 AM
I agree with an earlier poster that Ditmas Park will prosper. The reason? Ditmas Park has some things to offer that you just won't find anywhere else. Huge Victorian and Colonial style homes, yards, driveways and parking are available in abundance, and these look *awfully* good to someone who's lived in Manhattan or Park Slope for a few years. In fact, my theory is that, if you've lived in one of these well to do areas, Ditmas will have much more appeal than Carroll Gardens, Ft. Greene or any other area offering a variation on the style of housing and life you've already had. At the same time, the commute from Ditmas to Manhattan via B or Q is surprisingly easy and quick.
Then there's the matter of value. We may call Carroll Gardens an up and coming area, but in terms of property values it arrived long ago. It's expensive! Someone who's looking to get more for their dollar (more area, more convenience and more investment potential), will go to Ditmas Park.
Posted by: Boyo at December 29, 2005 8:09 AM
Ditmas Park has been "the next neighb" for at least two decades precisely because of the "big houses, yards, driveways." But this is also why people move to Jersey!
There is the B,Q train, a tiny stretch of Cortelou with one decent restaurant, and you have to drive everywhere else. Sounds an awful lot like Montclair (except the schools in Montclair are WAY better, and you don't have to pay city income tax).
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 9:12 AM
what happened to the name calling and political rants? can't you people stay off topic?!
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 11:09 AM
As a black man who is also looking to purchase a brownstone, I have experienced the same discrimination as Tyler while looking for homes in Bed-Stuy and Clinton Hill. It's almost as if the brokers just teleport themselves into the brownstone without bothering to look at the neighborhood surrounding it.
Back on topic, I, too, am long on Bed-Stuy (particularly the areas near the Nostrand and Utica stops), since the housing stock and transportation is there. Also like Prospect Heights, Windsor Terrace.
Shorts: Brooklyn Heights, Park Slope, since they are already near their price peak.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 11:18 AM
The dirty little secret of NYC real estate no one likes to talk about. Race matters. Whether you are renting or buying.
Posted by: Nativegal at December 29, 2005 12:00 PM
what does it mean for a broker to teleport themselves into a brownstone?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 12:14 PM
A couple of posters have alluded to the future of Fulton Street as if there are some specific development plans in the works. Are there?
I'm asking becuase I think Fulton is really promising-- it seems like it could be much more of a neighborhood hub than it is.
And a real estate agent told me once that a lot of businesses (like Jive Turkey & the Thai places, I think) have been choosing Myrtle over Fulton for the past few years because the rents are too high on Fulton-- but if this is true, I"m thinking that it'll eventually level out.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 12:22 PM
I've read that there's $1mil earmarked for storefront improvements along Fulton Street, from Bedford Ave to Lewis?
Posted by: Nativegal at December 29, 2005 1:14 PM
A million in government money or a developer? Do you know what the terms are? Is it for tree planting, benches, lighting?
Posted by: StMarks at December 29, 2005 1:19 PM
Vanderbilt needs upgrading. Anyway Ratner could pay for it?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 1:21 PM
The name BedStuy applies to a large area. How do people who live there see it as it currently is?
Is it still block by block specific?
Is the Southern area near the A/C more establish than the Northern area near the G, and the Eastern area near the J/Z?
How is the center that is pretty far from the subway?
Any unbiased feedback would be appriaciated. Thanks
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 1:33 PM
Fulton from Flatbush to Nostrand is part of a Business Improvement District or "BID". The Clinton Hill stretch (from Vanderbilt to Classon) has seen a few new places pop up in the past 4 years or so - Bodegas, Cafe Shane Deux, Kush, Outpost Cafe, Olivino etc. The apartment buildings on the corner of Fulton and Washington are for sale for $8 million, the corner 3 or so building on Fulton (Putnam actually) and Grand are up for development of condos if the owner can find a partner willing to invest $7million, there is a proposed condo development on the site of the parking lot next to the Cathedral Condos on Washington between Fulton and Atlantic as well as another proposed condo development on Clinton (I think that is the street, across from the large church) between Fulton and Atlantic. Whether any of this will be done is to be seen, but if it is true and things move forward, the commercial stretch of Fulton Street in Clinton Hill will likely change significantly (i.e. go more upscale as it has in Fort Greene in the past 5 years).
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 1:33 PM
One reason for the Williamsburg boom is scarcity of product. The waterfront towers will be a different housing type and will dump a lot of units. In order to get the prices they want, condos and rentals will be at manhattan pricing.
My prediction, today's prices will decline and the waterfront towers will develop over a pretty long time window similar to LI city's towers.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 1:45 PM
I was the 1.33 poster talking about the Fulton Street BID. I want to correct what I said. There is not currently a formal BID, but a BID feasibility study is being done by the Fulton First organization which is a Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce initiative. See the link http://www.ibrooklyn.com/fultonfirst/about
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 2:03 PM
Williamsburg is an example of how a neighborhood can become more desirable and competitive even with predominantly frame/aluminum siding buildings. The housing stock there is not as aesthetically pleasing yet it "boomed" before areas like BedStuy which has brownstones (and brick, aluminum siding)?
Do brownstones guarantee desirability and a competitive real estate market?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 2:05 PM
While we're getting off topic, here's something from BBerg today:
"Home Resales Fall to Lowest in 8 Months". -- Sales of existing homes fell to an eight-month low in November, leaving the number of houses on the market at the highest since 1986...
Posted by: JoshK at December 29, 2005 2:15 PM
Nativegal, do you think making a decision where to live based on race (when deciding between equally priced and convient locations) is about personal confort?
In all honesty I'm not really social with my neighbors. Some neighbors look like me and some don't. Its not like we are kids anymore and we play with the kids on are block. Sometimes I dont want to standout so much, there is comfort in that.
In reality there will always be people who want there neighbors who look like them and some who just want quiet neighbors.
I may have just had good luck in my housing situations.
Posted by: BrooklynNatural at December 29, 2005 2:21 PM
Based on the comments on this board, you are guaranteed to make money if you do the exact opposite of the wisdom found here.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 2:24 PM
To Anon at 8:09 A.M. - How can you compare Ditmas Park to Montclair? Have you tried commuting from each into Manhattan? Montclair takes 3 times as long. The fact that there is a neighborhood on a subway line within 20-30 minutes from Manhattan with huge, beautiful, historical homes that is still semi-affordable is amazing. I would go for Ditmas Park any day of the week. In the past when people thought it might take off, buying anywhere in Brooklyn was considered failure. Now that Brooklyn is no longer considered "uncool" and has become the choice for many, I can't see how this area will not become popular. The houses are fabulously beautiful and you do not have to drive everywhere. There is a subway line in walking distance and you are in a borough of NYC, not the burbs. You can keep your job in NYC, have a huge house to raise a family in, and still get home to see your kids by dinner or jet off to dinner in Manhattan on a whim (unlike Montclair).
You are right about the schools and the yuppy ammenities - they are not there yet but precisely for the reason this neighborhood is not like Montclair - because it is in the middle of a city and in an area that has not yet gentrified. These things can change and these things are what bring up property value. (Did you ever walk down 5th Avenue in Park Slope 10 years ago? There wasn't even one nice restaurant.)
Montclair has nowhere to go, just as the already completely gentrified and high priced areas of Brooklyn have nowhere to go. I thought this whole post was about picking areas that have an upside - not where we would want to live if we had all the money in the world (Brooklyn Heights) or where we might be forced to live if we never get any (Montclair).
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 3:11 PM
Regarding Fulton Street, in the Federal Transportation Bill passed this year (SAFETEA-LU H.R.3) $4,480,000 was earmarked for the "Design and Construction of Fulton Street from Clinton Avenue to Bedford Avenue" I'm not sure exactly what that money is for but I'm sure it will help improve that stretch.
There's also $8,000,000 to plan and construct a greenway, bike paths, esplanade and ferry landing in Sunset Park and a bunch of stuff around the Brooklyn Children's museum.
Check out the details here: http://www.taxpayer.net/Transportation/safetealu/NY.pdf
search for "brooklyn"
Posted by: Ben at December 29, 2005 3:33 PM
Anon 3:11, you are really quite mistaken about Montclair over Ditmas Park. D.P. IS fabulous...ghetto fabulous. There is a communter direct line that runs every ten minutes during rush hour, there are plenty of great places to shop and eat in the area, and the quality of life is so much better. I can easily get to the city or a Giants game with ease, and I too have a huge backyard, great parks, a garage, and fantastic schools (which I do pay much higher taxes for, but will average down as the youngins enter school age).
You can have your Ditmas/Sunset Park Slope Sty Hillvasent and all of the gentrified and ungentrified cornpokes that come with city living. The burbs are just fine, thanks.
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 3:42 PM
StMarks, that's $1mil in gov't funds. Here's a link to the site keeping track of what's happening in Bed-Stuy.
http://urbanchange.typepad.com/fultonnostrand/
Posted by: Nativegal at December 29, 2005 3:49 PM
Thanks, Nativegal
Posted by: StMarks at December 29, 2005 3:54 PM
Hi BrooklynNatural. There are so many variables that go into deciding where to live, it's hard to decide which is most important. I'm a person who likes to be out & about and I felt we were buying the neighborhood as well as the house. For us, an inter-racial couple, comfort was definitely a big factor. Bed-stuy where I grew up was out because we'd already had issues there. Park Slope, which I see becoming less & less diverse in any sense of the word was out, because I didn't want to keep explaining that I wasn't my child's nanny. Prospect-Lefferts Garden offered the diversity we wanted as well as the neighborhood amenities important to us.
Posted by: Nativegal at December 29, 2005 4:28 PM
RE: the Ditmas/Montclaire thing...
I bought a fabulous grand Queen Anne Victorian with driveway and garage on .25 acre, within walking distance to the Hudson...all for $385k.
Ok, so it's in Beacon, NY. Great town, but Brooklyn is home. Came back and got myself a pied a terre to keep my connection to the boro, but I really do prefer the quality of life in the burbs. And there are loads of ex-Brooklynites in Beacon anyway.
Posted by: anon at December 29, 2005 4:39 PM
come on guys, we're talking about long or short on Bkln nabes, not people's opinions of living in the suburbs...
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 4:46 PM
Good for you. Go post on the Beacon board. The topic is Brooklyn neighborhoods. Why is it so difficult for people to post ON TOPIC?
Posted by: Anonymous at December 29, 2005 4:52 PM
I am a 'burb person myself, but I have to disagree about one thing on the Montclair/DP issue - Montclair doesn't have great schools for the taxes. I looked there, and there are a ton of other towns around the NYC suburban area that have lower taxes and better schools. In fact, I have a friend who grew up there and went to private school because the public school was so scary. I feel like if you're paying suburban taxes, you should have great schools.
On all other issues, I think it's a matter of personal taste. I like more green, therefore I like the 'burbs better. But an urban Victorian is probably just as beautiful.
Posted by: Anonymous1 at December 29, 2005 5:00 PM
Nativegal I appriciate the honesty. I had similar decision to make but I choose Park Slope (North). I to am in an inter-racial couple without children. I haven't had to deal with people's assumptions of whose child I was with yet. I grew up in brooklyn in an all white, all european neighborhood. I don't feel comfortable living there as an inter-racial couple because we really would be the only ones who were different. Park Slope in comparison is much more racial and economically diverse than the neighborhood I grew up in.
Now the black population is mostly in the north end and the hispanics are mostly above the stores on 5th avenue and the south end.
There are many black own business in the north end on flatbush ave and hispanic owned business on 5th ave in the south end.
I agree the population of Park Slope is not reflective of NYC: 30% Black, 30%White 30%Hispanic and 10%Asian.
Word. On all fronts. However, I heard from one source, and would swear I also read here at one point, that the storefront on Lafayette at Grand that is being beautifully renovated was going to be some sort of gourmet market. Too small to carry much, but it would certainly be a welcome addition!
Posted by: Mr. Minerva at December 23, 2005 11:39 AM