5 Expert Predictions on the Future of Brooklyn Real Estate

What does the future hold? That was the chief question posed to four expert panelists — a developer, architect, critic, and city planner — each with an eye to Brooklyn’s destiny.

Do their answers surprise you?

Borough President Eric Adams gave the opening remarks at an annual real estate panel hosted by Compass and held at BAM Wednesday. The panel was moderated by Matthew Shadbolt, Director of Real Estate Products at the New York Times.

The lineup of panelists included Asher Abehsera, Founder and CEO of developer LIVWRK — the company that recently converted a Gowanus warehouse into coveted office space; Lissa So, Partner of Marvel Architects — the firm that designed Pierhouse, the new St. Ann’s Warehouse, and the proposed tower at 280 Cadman Plaza West; Nikolai Fedak, Founder and Editor in Chief of NY YIMBY; and Richard Bearak, Land Use Director for the Brooklyn Borough President.

Prediction #1: Crown Heights is going to get even hotter

When asked where they would buy today to benefit tomorrow, the panelists each named a different neighborhood. Architect Lissa So said that Sunset Park would heat up as Industry City takes off. Nikolai Fedak said that he’d wait a few years for the current bubble to pop before buying in Bed Stuy. Land Use Director Richard Bearak named Carroll Gardens and brownstone Brooklyn.

But it was the answer of developer Asher Abehsera that felt the most powerful: “Today, I’d develop in Red Hook but buy in Crown Heights.” Abehsera believes that the nearby cultural amenities of neighborhood — the Brooklyn Museum, Central Library, Prospect Park — will make it an especially coveted place to live.

Prediction #2: Homes vs. hotels vs. homeless shelters will become an even bigger issue

As Brooklyn’s tourist scene grows, there’s going to be even more conflict between creating homes and creating hotels. AirBnB is already having an impact on rents. And the city recently announced plans to limit the construction of hotels in Industrial Business Zones.

Land Use Director Richard Bearak said it doesn’t make sense to allow hotels in manufacturing areas, citing two hotels in Sunset Park — one that was busted for being a brothel, and another that’s becoming a homeless shelter. YIMBY Founder Nikolai Fedak blisteringly replied: “We wouldn’t need so many homeless shelters if we had enough homes.”

Prediction #3: Climate change is going to be an enormous issue

Talking about the potential for development in Red Hook, Bearak said climate change will have a disproportionate impact on Brooklyn residents with less means: “We can raise new buildings, put utilities up top. The problem is more with existing homes and people who can’t afford flood insurance but can’t afford to move.”

“In 10, 20, 50 years, the ocean is going to be there,” said Fedak. Citing data of rising tides in Savannah and Charleston, Fedak warned that we’ll soon be feeling the effects of a higher sea level.

Prediction #4: The city will get smarter about building schools

“When we rezoned Downtown Brooklyn, no one understood that it would become the new frontier [of residential development],” said Bearak. At the time, the city believed that office space, not apartments, would be the thing developed downtown. Now, with thousands of new units about to come online, there’s a major shortage in schools in the area.

The city doesn’t want to make that mistake again. Borough President Eric Adams is already trying to get additional school space included in the design for 280 Cadman Plaza West. And education space will become an even larger factor in the development plans to come.

Prediction #5: The zoning definition of “industry” will change

“The way we make things has changed dramatically over the years,” said LIVWRK CEO Asher Abehsera. He said he believes the city should introduce policy to support the creation of affordable maker space similar to de Blasio’s plan for creating more affordable housing units through mandatory inclusionary zoning. In fact, the Mayor’s office and the City Council have already floated a plan to protect the borough’s creative economy that would set aside portions of new developments for creative businesses and the arts.

Otherwise, warned Abehsera, the artisanal pickle makers and craftspeople that built up Brooklyn’s brand will get priced out by technology startups.

[Photos: Lauren Naefe for Compass]

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