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While Elliman and Corcoran have just released their 3rd Quarter reports on Manhattan, the current issue of The Real Deal that just dropped has an exhaustive analysis of the Brooklyn real estate market—so exhaustive that it’s hard to pick out just a few snippets here. Here’s some top-level stuff:

Overall, the median closed sales price in Brooklyn has already fallen back to 2005 levels, dropping 19 percent over the past two years, according to StreetEasy. Rental listing prices dropped 12 percent over the past year, not including all of the concessions landlords are throwing in these days. Meanwhile, a city tally early last month found that Brooklyn had more stalled construction sites than any other borough with 214 — a stunning 47 percent of all 448 projects citywide.

What else? Robert Knakal predicts prices have another 5 to 10 percent to fall, and another professional market watched looks on the bright side of things when he says, “it’s not going to be the end of the world if these [new condo developments] start selling at discounts. It’s going to provide much-needed affordable housing for the middle class, which doesn’t really exist right now.” In the neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakdowns, Williamsburg comes out looking in the worst shape in terms of distressed properties and supply glut. Still, even Park Slope has its share of bad news: The number of transactions there fell by almost half over the past year and listings prices are down 25 percent since 2007. Read on.
Toppling the King [The Real Deal]


What's Your Take? Leave a Comment

  1. “A claim of half off peak for all sub-markets, landmarked or not, infers that there is no distribution of adjustments. Only a data set containing one point of data would fit that model.”

    I don’t follow that paragraph but my sense (attention to prices in Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights, and Fort Greene over the years) as well as Case-Shiller data tells me that everything more or less tripled in value.

    The hoods that have already experienced significant declines ahead of the average are those of low-income so-called minorities. Last hired, first fired, first foreclosed, first force-sold. All sub-markets will not necessarily collapse in lockstep. Brooklyn Heights residents have deeper pockets and older money and can deny a little bit longer than a marginal owner in Bed Stuy.

    Not everything must sell but whatever does will be marked to a brutal market. The high and low tide of Ponzi finance floats all boats.

    Can you please elaborate on that paragraph I quoted?

    ***Bid half off peak comps***

  2. BHO – across the board? Really?
    From TRD piece:
    “The largely landmarked district comprised of Dumbo, Brooklyn Heights, Boerum Hill, Carroll Gardens and Cobble Hill had the smallest median sales price decline over the past two years, at 7.5 percent. The area also saw one of the smallest declines in rental listing prices over the past year — 4.7 percent.” “New development didn’t dominate the market, so as a result you didn’t have as large of a drop,” Miller explained.

    How will these neighborhoods catch up to those that have already experienced significantly greater declines in price? Is volume a factor in these thinly traded, no-new-supply, landmarked districts? These same neighborhoods experienced the least amount of appreciation during the run up. I am sincerely interested in how you see your across the board half off peak scenario playing out.

    A claim of half off peak for all sub-markets, landmarked or not, infers that there is no distribution of adjustments. Only a data set containing one point of data would fit that model.