Taking the Pulse of 4th Avenue's Inventory
Sure, sometimes it seems like there are countless new condos on 4th Avenue, but, in fact, between the expressway and Atlantic Avenue there are only five that currently have units for sale. Some of the recent-vintage builds ended up being rentals, and it’s unclear whether the next few that seem likely to actually finish construction,…
Sure, sometimes it seems like there are countless new condos on 4th Avenue, but, in fact, between the expressway and Atlantic Avenue there are only five that currently have units for sale. Some of the recent-vintage builds ended up being rentals, and it’s unclear whether the next few that seem likely to actually finish construction, such as 574 4th Avenue, will be rentals or condos. Herewith, the latest numbers available on Brooklyn’s Park Avenue condo inventory:
500 Fourth Avenue: Its marketers claimed last month that 20 percent of the 156 units are in contract. So: Around 125 available.
The Argyle: 8 out of 60 units remain, per Corcoran’s listings page.
The Novo: 1 unit left for sale, according to StreetEasy.
The Crest: 2 units left unspoken for, says StreetEasy.
The Elan: Broker said last month 7 units were in contract; since then, 18 of the 32 units have been listed as rentals. Thus: 25 available depending on how you look at it. (While this one’s about 20 yards from 4th Avenue proper, we’re considering it 4th Avenue in spirit.)
Final analysis: Give or take, there are about 160 new condos to sell on 4th Avenue right now. A decent amount, yes, and there are more coming eventually. But it’s not a Williamsburg-esque condopocalypse situation. And, at the end of the day, there’s really only one building, 500 Fourth, accounting for the overwhelming majority of inventory.
“looking at sales over the last 12 months”
But what percent of total units built in ‘500’, The Argyle, The NOVO, The Cress and The Elan, have actually closed?
I’m talking unsold inventory whether rented out or still in contract. No one seems to have a handle on the % closed number. Smoke and mirrors.
I’m done.
***Bid half off peak comps***
so I took a gander at ACRIS – looking at sales over the last 12 months one would be hard pressed to find anything at or below the $600/sq ft threshold. Apartments at the Crest, Novo, Argyle, and just up the street at the Heritage have sold at numbers that would substantiate today’s asking prices. You can “bid half off peak comps”, but it seems that you won’t buy at that price….unless, of course, you are in Miami
“You do know that closed real estate deals are public information right?”
Yeah, that’s why I question the percent closure of the stated or implied sales above. I looked here (rolling sales on ACRIS)…
http://tinyurl.com/2jacwn
…and wasn’t able to verify. You wanna help? (Why does brownstoner link to corcoran and streeteasy rather than ACRIS?)
***Bid half off peak comps***
You do know that closed real estate deals are public information right? Sheezaz – the level of…. is astounding.
Half Off you state what is reasonable. Prove it to the prospective buyers and to the rest of the side line. If the statistics are factual, it would stir true confidence in a very cautious real estate environment. Since these stats are NOT proven, one can only pause, question and doubt. Is not strategy and marketing business the job of the broker?
“But you all keep ignoring the evidence…”
What evidence? What percentage of all alleged “sales” have actually closed? 100%? I asked this at 11:34 am and got nada. How can one verify the number, IF KNOWN?
Maybe it IS 100%. Let’s score one for Team Bull and move on. But prove it!
***Bid half off peak comps***
Many 4th Ave units have excellent, unobstructed north / west views. This is something that appealed to me along with access to mass transit and proximity to 5th Ave (restaurants, shops). On the negative side is the distance (& incline) to Prospect Park, and the “expressway” nature of 4th Ave traffic. Another, albeit ? temporary drawback, is the industrial / commercial character of the avenue. The biggest problem, however, is the high sq ft inflexible pricing of the developers.
I have not tracked 500 4th Ave, but AFAIK Argyle closing is doing well. I also doubt every single one of the 33 units under contract (I think about 15 have already closed and 1 is for the super) will close. But I think those will be the exceptions.
But I agree with FSRQ, I think people are underestimating 4th Ave as a viable residential area. Being close to 5th (prime Slope) and transportation (Union and 9th Street) has made it a good alternative to prime Slope and Boerum Hill area.
But I also agree that would be developments that now sit as empty lots have controlled supply somewhat – keeping it in par with demand.
The Schadenfreude here is sad – and apparently misplaced. Despite the worst predictions by these here – based on their dislike of the architechture, these units have mostly sold. Proving 1. the desirability of Park Slope (which is btw a good reason to leave out those developments further down 4th – since it is a different market), the desire of people to spend less per sq ft (these building were all cheaper than the prevailing PS condo prices) and finally shows the total irrelevancy of exterior architechture to sales (which makes sense because the people living in a building see it less than almost anyone else)
But you all keep ignoring the evidence to the contrary and stick with your initial premises – you sound so smart doing that