Bearish Brownstoners Miss Mark on 2nd Street Sale
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now…
So far we have precious few data points on the predictive powers of the pricing widget. For a while, the only HOTD or COTD to sell was 316 Cumberland Street, which sold for $2,250,000 in June, a shade less than the asking price of $2,295,000 but almost $360,000 more than widget voters predicted. And now our second data point shows an equally bearish disposition: 93 2nd Street, which generated a predicted selling price of $914,379, just closed for $1,086,312; in our defense, we said at the time that “We could see it getting pretty close to” the asking price of $1,125,000. Interesting, eh?
House of the Day: 93 2nd Street [Brownstoner]
Hi. Still reading.
Not sure anyone’s still reading – I had a very busy day at work and am trying to digest this huge thread.
A few quick points:
11217 – I did not say we are AT 2004 pricing but that I am betting we will get at least to that point, if not lower.
Yesterday’s biggest sales included 2 primo Park Slope houses that sold for way under ask. The one on 4th St, which sold for just above $2.2, was HOTD last summer at $3mil and many, including 11217, thought that $3mil was a bargain at the time, and that it would have gone for significantly more had market not started to soften. The 8th Street house chopped $600K from ask to sell within several months – that 4 story house wound up selling for $1.8mil – which suggests that a primo 3 story house in gorgeous condition could credibly go for 1.3-1.4 (and thus getting closer to the 1million end of the spectrum than the 2 million end, which bulls used to say was the minmum price of entry for a brownstone in prime Bklyn). Mind you, these prices are based on peak spring selling season, so I think it’s also highly conceivable that they could fall significantly more in the next year or so.
There is a consistent pattern in the Open House picks 6ML thread that shows that properties linger, cut prices gradually, or sell for significantly less than initial ask.
So yes, there is the anomoly in data in any market (so some houses will do better than expected, even in a bear market, just as some will do worse than expected, even in a bull market).
But I for one think the direction of the market in NYC is clear and it has further down to go.
Personally, I am not interested in a 2 family. The rent generally won’t cover the share of the mortgage and I don’t want the headache.
Most sane people have gone home, but on my phone. Thought I’d add one thing people don’t mention.
By waiting in a likely overpriced market, you don’t just hopefully save money. You get to buy more house. My sitation is that most 2 family places are a touch too pricey for me. And I’m in a pretty good position financially. So I suspect they are too high for most buyers.
I’ll likely spend the same amt. I have a ceiling i will go to. Waiting makes it far more likelyy my dream home falls to my range, and long term, my quality of life is that much better.
Worst case, market goes sideways and I buy that smaller place, but at least tried for the dream.
wasder, you are entirely too reasonable. Cease and desist!
Well done on a reasonable discussion about renting vs owning. Like MR I was in the position of outgrowing my apt and decided to buy regardless of a falling market, partly because the house I bought had already fallen several hundred thousand under its original ask and partly because with a second baby on the way I just needed more space. But there are many different ways to approach this situation and they are all valid. I just get sick of folks on both sides of the argument who can’t seem to understand that there are no universally valid reasons to buy or not. Its all relative to one’s own circumstances.
> That’s what I like about my antique furniture.
Same here. Though my chosen time capsule is buried somewhere between Mad Men and The Brady Bunch.
MR, that’s just the game plan I’m following. I personally believe the market will go down further, but I’m not going to wait if/when I find the right property. On the other hand, if I don’t find something for another year, while prices may have stopped falling, I’m not worried about them climbing up again within my time frame. I may have to contend with rising interest rates, but I’m not terribly worried about that yet either. Meanwhile, I enjoy good real estate porn, and I like exploring neighborhoods I’d never considered before.
MFN-
Tough call. That’s a lot of money. Add the $4k with the savings that you expect from the market…
We felt like we had to move out of our smallish one bedroom when our son got about to walking age. Plus we were being kicked out. I knew the market was going to go down, but I guess I made a lifestyle choice. I mean what is money for anyway?
I think if I were in your position I’d probably end up staying “just another month” for a year or so. Until my wife started threatening my life.