REBNY Report Reveals Big Drop in Volume
While Manhattan saw a 63% decline in condo sales in the first three months of 2009 from the year-earlier period, Brooklyn wasn’t far behind, with a 61% drop in sales volume. Meantime, sales in Queens and the Bronx were down 58% and 50%, respectively…Brooklyn neighborhoods Park Slope and Greenpoint recorded increases in average sale prices…
While Manhattan saw a 63% decline in condo sales in the first three months of 2009 from the year-earlier period, Brooklyn wasn’t far behind, with a 61% drop in sales volume. Meantime, sales in Queens and the Bronx were down 58% and 50%, respectively…Brooklyn neighborhoods Park Slope and Greenpoint recorded increases in average sale prices for condos for the period studied. Condo prices in Greenpoint were up 7% year-over-year in the first quarter, to $543,000, while prices in Park Slope were up 6%, to $698,000. Park Slope has been an established neighborhood for some time now, said Michael Slattery, senior vice president at REBNY, noting that new developments did not skew results in these two Brooklyn areas. There will be continued interest in these neighborhoods. — Crain’s
I say another 20 percent correction in markets where rents are about the same as buying.. And a much bigger correction in locations where owning is more expensive than renting… Brooklyn Heights here I come…………………..
w/r/t Park Slope, the report isn’t *wrong*, it just reflects old information. I can tell you without any equivocation that prices (meaning what places will go into contract for today, not what they closed at last quarter) are dropping, often substantially.
There are plenty of “established” neighborhoods in Manhattan where there will be “continued interest” (like, say, the Upper East Side) where prices are in free-fall.
I think that they have undergone price chops, but I also think the selling prices were relatively high even still. Whenever I come across a Novo or Crest sale, I usually recoil and think…someone paid *that* to live down there in that building?!
11217:
I thought the Novo, Crest etc. on 4th Avenue had all been undergoing price chops, and would be a pretty high percentage of whatever condo sales there have been in PS. Would be curious to know the number of sales this is based on.
Good info, Paul C. Thanks.
“Park Slope has been an established neighborhood for some time now,†said Michael Slattery, senior vice president at REBNY, noting that new developments did not skew results in these two Brooklyn areas. “There will be continued interest in these neighborhoods.”
I don’t know about Park Slope, but as for Greenpoint this is flat-out wrong – almost ALL 1Q condo closings in Greenpoint were new developments and, as I mentioned above, these were based on prices that were set in early-to-mid 2008. I personally like the neighborhood, but anyone who thinks prices are going up there (or even holding steady) is not dealing with reality.
basementalist:
I think it’s because Park Slope doesn’t have a ton of condos to begin with…those it does have…the Vermeil, the Lincoln Place former brothel come to mind in addition to the 4th Avenue stuff are priced pretty high, so I guess it makes sense. I think it’s a combination of fewer things selling, but I’m also noticing from Streeteasy that Park Slope IS in fact still doing ok….sales are happening regularly and the prices are holding up much better than I’d expect…
Inventory is still quite low also in PS. That certainly helps.
I can speak to the Greenpoint condo market, since I nearly bought there in 2008 but (fortunately) got out of it. First of all, there were almost no sales in Greenpoint during the first quarter, other than closings on contracts that were signed in early-to-mid 2008.
One sale (in the building I was going to buy in) was a $925,000 penthouse (again, this was a closing on a contract signed in early 2008). With the small volume of closings, this transaction alone might have had a substantial effect on the data.
In any event, info on first-quarter closings on new construction condos reflects a long-ago era in NY real estate, and not useful. Asking prices are down 10-20%, which gives you a more useful indication where sales prices will be heading. In other words, second and third quarters should provide more meaningful info on trends in this tiny segment of the market.
As much as I’d like to cry ha ha ha Park Slope wins, this just seems fishy, compared with the price cuts I’m seeing (and if anything condos appear weaker). Maybe there’s a small sample size here? I’m willing to believe that Park Slope won’t fall as far and hard in proportion to some other neighborhoods, but it’s not bulletproof.