Quote of the Day
Once we join the rest of the country in terms of accepting reality – we are by the way now falling under the same lending standards of income to debt ratios, and under the new appraisal requirements set forth in the lending crack-downs – we should see prices return to levels where they still should…
Once we join the rest of the country in terms of accepting reality – we are by the way now falling under the same lending standards of income to debt ratios, and under the new appraisal requirements set forth in the lending crack-downs – we should see prices return to levels where they still should be had the past 10 years of bizzaro world not happened. In 1-2 years (or less) wait and see if we don’t follow the rest of the country. I’m looking again at condos around Miami and they are around $100/psf – even less for anything that isn’t new construction. These same exact condos were in the $700-800 psf range just 2 years ago – I still have my old offering and information paperwork from when I was looking at the same units back then. One of the units that was asking $700,000, is now right at $100K with the seller kicking in closing costs. And we are talking prime neighborhoods. So sit back and watch. It’s not going to be pretty for sellers who overpaid, but will be great for families in our city who can move back in and not have to live 2 adults and 4 kids in a studio that they still can’t afford.
— by williamsburgguy in Toll Gets Serious About Selling at Northside Piers
In addition to the financial structure, credit, and macroeconomic issues plaguing the entire nation, Miami has a huge oversupply of housing. Houston (there’s a lot about Houston on Brownstoner today!) was in a similar place when its local economy came grinding to a halt in the 1980s. Property values quickly dropped 50%+, and parts of the city looked like ghost towns, with grass growing in freshly-laid parking lots.
NYC does NOT have a housing oversupply. Everything I’ve read has said that we still face a housing undersupply. Furthermore, whether or not NYC is a nice place to live, it’s the locus of many key industries. So, people have to live here — or near here. Shorter commutes are always more desirable.
We’re in for it, like the rest of the nation, but we have certain cushions. Still, hold onto your hat. Cushioned or not, it’s going to be a wild ride.
Anyone that thinks that NY real estate is in a similar position to that of Florida needs to pick up the latest issue of The New Yorker.
It’s not a question of a pure headcount –it’s not even how much money Wall Street made –it’s the multiplier effect of that money moving throughout, and sustaining, the city’s economy. Team Bull argues from an almost purely affective logic –how it’s so indispensable to human goodness to live in Brownstone Brooklyn –then assigns that experience a monetary value, by way of hoping we don’t notice the basic reality–that the money is gone. It’s gone. It will take some time to get used to the idea that money is scarce. If Team Bear is revolted by you, consider, that what money there is currently buying up Brownstone Brooklyn was essentially looted from the Treasury.
Furthermore, the affective argument is naive. The balance of good qualities and bad qualities to urban living could (easily) tip again; a flight to suburbs or rural living is not out of the question. And yet we insist on taking seriously the prognostications of people whose wealth is largely tied up (tied down) to Brooklyn real estate?
“We are talking about heads.”
Ultimately, you’re talking about home prices. That’s what the tread from which this QOTD came.
***Bid half off peak comps***
I overlooked 11217’s other post on Miami. She/he has posted so many times that I just missed it. 11217 you are truly insufferable. And ignorant.
“I think Miami is a pit. Every person I know who’s been there thought it was a dump. I was just talking at dinner the other day with two friends who are doctors who went recently for the first time and they were absolutely horrified with how “3rd world” they thought Miami was. Another friend was there for a business trip not long ago and her words about Miami included, “desolate and devoid of culture” as well as a few unsavory words about the people she met while there.”
…
“There are gorgeous beaches in Sandy Hook, NJ, Montauk, Bethany Beach, DE, Corolla NC that I’d rather go to in a second. And the added benefit is that they aren’t located in Florida.
One of the most culturally backwards state in the union.”
And yes, 11217, it’s quite obvious you were referring to the Hispanic demographic of the city when you said “3rd World.” Please. Your friends sound lovely. I’m embarrassed for you. And I think you give the North Slope a bad name by using its zip code as your handle.
-nyny
Courtesy of 11217:
“Has anyone actually BEEN to Miami? I wouldn’t live there if you paid ME 700,000k!”
“I didn’t realize there was such a thing when referring to Miami proper. It all looked like a pit to me.”
Quite obnoxious. And closed-minded. Not to mention downright rude. Indicative of a provincial mind that needs constant validation of his/her decisions in life by putting others down. I am a longtime reader, first time poster, and a lifelong New Yorker (third generation). I do not feel the need to trashtalk other cities just to prove that I love NYC above all.
Sam, I agree with you 100%. Miami is indeed very beautiful. I treasure my getaways to the lovely beaches in the area. And the people are just wonderful. I have made so many good friends over the past 20 years.
NYC is not immune to our economic crisis; it’s just taking longer to get here. Xander and Finance guy/gal above are right.
-nyny
11217, I didn’t say the world is ending. Perhaps this is your worry?
I think you should at least take a look at shadowstats which posts what the *real* unmanipulated unemployment figures are determined. These figures strip out government heuristics, statistical model changes, and other tricks.
As you said before “The WORST forecast for unemployment I’ve heard so far is 10% by 2011 or 2012. While horrible (and a worst case scenario as far as I’ve heard) that really doesn’t compare to the 25% during the Great Depression.”
According to shadowstats, If you count underemployed, the discourage who stopped looking, and more we’re already between 13 and 17 percent.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
By the way, you’re probably saying that i’m a tinfoil on the head kook, but I got this site after reading an article on money.com (hardly anything other than mainstream).
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/09/markets/thebuzz/index.htm
Second, you don’t know me, I have never posted on this site before today. So you’re statement that “you (and others) seem to” think the world is coming to an end actually points to either your inability to comprehend the written word or might point to your inability to grasp other people’s reasoning that conflicts with your worldview.
Either way, enjoy
“And then people will figure out how to make it improve.”
So, 11217, your entire outlook is based on blind optimism. Or, more succinctly, nothing at all.
Things will get worse. The statistics of the great depression were calculated differently, applied to a different reality, and do not apply to our day. If you really want to understand the predicament we are in, do the grunt(statistical) work. More women in the workforce, more underemployed, more temporary and contract workers. Unemployment is far worse than it looks. Further, The government is encouraging the exact behavior that got us in trouble: foolish lending.
Not that the OP is correct. But you, sir or madam, are not.
Sorry, 11217, I don’t see the analogy. If anything, it reinforces what I was saying. Whiners, of which you are one, need not read this blog if they don’t the content. Who are you to lay out, in a snarky three sentences no less, what standards the QOTD should adhere to? Seriously? It smacked of immaturity and totally random aggression. I mean, really, there are enough of your posts to scroll past on every thread. Do you have a compulsion? Or do you just *have* to have the last word every time? It’s kind of pathological.