condo-022309.jpg“When we look at New York City, we look at a price-income ratio that historically has been four times income, versus three times nationwide… If you want simply to get back to the median, it would be a 46% correction…If I had to pick one market in the country with the most challenge and the most substantive rate of decline [ahead], it’s New York City. It has the greatest number of job losses among the higher earners.” — Ivy Zelman, a former Credit Suisse analyst, in Barron’s via Curbed.


What's Your Take? Leave a Comment

  1. Legion! Legion! Legion! Legion! Legion! Wake up ! Wake up !Wake up !Wake up !Wake up !

    “When all the morons of the world are crying that the sky is falling and all is lost. That’s when you know the opposite is actually more likely.”

    No Assneck! This is “What’s Happing “, Bruh…

    Stocks Slump on Corporate Woes; Indexes Fall by 3.4%

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/business/24market.html?ref=business

    On a day when two leading stock indexes sank to their lowest point in more than a decade, Wall Street did not need the dire problems of banks to lead the way to the bottom.

    A broad sell-off on Monday sent the Dow Jones industrial average tumbling 250.89 points and pulled the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index to its lowest close since April 1997. In the last five trading days, stocks have fallen about 10 percent.

    Legion is a ‘Tard…… Go away little boy…

    Oh and go night Assturd!

    The What

    Someday this war is gonna end…

  2. bottom line;

    When all the morons of the world are crying that the sky is falling and all is lost. That’s when you know the opposite is actually more likely.

    Or put another way;

    As the consensus among morons approaches totality, the chances that the opposite hypothesis is likely, approaches certainty.

  3. Back to the Mr. 70K a year question, I am always amazed when people post this. There are a ton of highly affordable one-bedroom apts in the Bronx and Queens, not to mention two-families in Brooklyn. No need to worry about Mr. 70K a year. He’s doing fine.

    As for the Barron’s article, all you can really take away from it is that contract prices for luxury property in Manhattan have dropped 15 to 20 percent since August 2008, that volume is down, and inventory is up. This is all significant, but everything else in the story is rumor and speculation.

    As for Brooklyn, so far we have very little hard data. What we know: Clinton Hill brownstones down 15 percent (poster above). Subprime Brooklyn down 40 percent since June 06 peak (my own analysis).

  4. “It’ll be too bad if prices never get that low and then you’re shit-out-of-luck.”

    Naw, it’ll still be all good. Just because I can afford to pay $5 for a coke at the movies, it doesn’t mean I won’t try to sneak it in for $1.50 instead. If I get caught, I’ll come off that $5.

    ***Bid half off peak comps***

  5. Got it?

    I think I do. The peak comp for a house like mine would have been between 1.3 and 1.5 or so I would guess. But even that variation is enough to make a big difference once a potential 50% drop is factored in.

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